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Presenting Gold's 7-Sigma Move

Tyler Durden's picture




 

While yesterday's cliff-dive in gold was impressive by any standards, the escalating drop over the past 5 days has been just as dramatic. Based on 20 years of rolling 5-day moves, the ~15% plunge is equivalent to around 7 standard deviations (in context Yao Ming is a mere 6 standard deviations taller than the average human making gold's move the equivalent of meeting a man taller than 7'7")

 

 

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Tue, 04/16/2013 - 09:17 | 3455751 Capitalist
Capitalist's picture

Fat tails bitchez.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 09:19 | 3455771 knukles
knukles's picture

That's a lotta Yao Ming

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 09:20 | 3455776 Pladizow
Pladizow's picture

Antiquated Bell Curve produces inaccurate analysis!

Armstrong sees 1000 being tested.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 09:23 | 3455803 kliguy38
kliguy38's picture

Nuthin' ta see here ....now move along peeps....

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 09:33 | 3455845 New England Patriot
New England Patriot's picture

Seems natural enough...

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 09:34 | 3455851 bullionbaron
bullionbaron's picture

This is what I am seeing:

Surge of Buyers Rush for Physical Gold & Silver: http://www.bullionbaron.com/2013/04/surge-of-buyers-rush-for-physical-go...

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 09:42 | 3455878 nope-1004
nope-1004's picture

Something under the rug smells.  They wouldn't hit it this hard for no reason, especially if that reason were sound economic activity.  The ponzi is showing it's age and horrible lack of integrity.  Why else hit the only genuine wealth instrument with such intensity?

 

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 09:44 | 3455910 Lets_Eat_Ben
Lets_Eat_Ben's picture

The deflation will soon begin in earnest. But, before that is allowed, the weak hands need to be shaken out of safety so they can be sufficiently raped, and all tentacles with naked shorts can unwind before they are caught with pants down.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 09:49 | 3455936 Steaming_Wookie_Doo
Steaming_Wookie_Doo's picture

I was thinking of JPM's big silver short at $25. Their butts were in the breeze on that one, but it wasn't clear that they were margin called on it as silver sat in the high 20's/low 30s. Of course as of yesterday they were big time in the black. This is assuming that JPM was (unlike you or me) margin called or used customer funds to back up their shitty position up til now. I guess we'll see when JPM reports earnings that are "magically delicious".

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 10:01 | 3455994 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

People- the game is rigged and those in the club you aint in have been told it's time to rotate out of paper and into physical.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 10:19 | 3456060 SafelyGraze
SafelyGraze's picture

BOE has been liquidating again.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 10:59 | 3456233 Alea Iactaest
Alea Iactaest's picture

Best article I have seen yet:

http://www.alhambrapartners.com/2013/04/15/we-have-seen-gold-prices-act-...

"[L]arge declines in gold prices match date for date the extreme developments in the banking system across several currencies. And in each case the gold selloff has previewed a larger decline in systemic liquidity that eventually catches other asset classes."

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 11:30 | 3456387 forwardho
forwardho's picture

Agree.

Thanks for taking time to post link.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 11:51 | 3456551 stewie
stewie's picture

-> Japan QE

-> something else?

Excellent article.  Thanks for the link.

Now the question is: Is bank collateral dwindling because of the new QE in Japan(in acticipation of it) or something else?

Please vote above.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 12:48 | 3456862 Panafrican Funk...
Panafrican Funktron Robot's picture

It is interesting to note the very similar % drop in crude futures vs. gold futures over just a slightly longer timeframe (April 1st - present).  They're trading pretty much in tandem, which is not surprising given the USD's relationship with oil, and how that plays into the USD price of gold.

The negative CPI print today (yes, rigged, but still, lower than it has been recently, in the face of $85 billion a month) was also interesting.  As was the increase in the relative strength of the yen on Friday and Monday, again despite warp speed printing.  USD/CHF has been trading in tandem with the oil and gold futures plunges.  The big drop in the RUT yesterday was telling as well.  Some key things I'm looking to see:

USD/CHF below 0.92

Crude below 85

Gold below 1350

RUT below 900

30 year over 149

It's worth noting that the 30 year futs have round tripped the drop at the beginning of January and is now back to levels last seen in the late December run up.  The ES was at 1400 back then.  

 

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 13:30 | 3457052 Joe Sixpack
Joe Sixpack's picture

See yesterday's inventory of 100 ozt. bars on APMEX graphically. People sure took advantage of the sale!

 

http://gold-silver.us/forum/showthread.php?27317-GSUS-APMEX-Precious-Met...

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 10:53 | 3456192 PaperWillBurn
PaperWillBurn's picture

Paper will burn, bitches

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 11:06 | 3456277 Seer
Seer's picture

Wait!  Is that the sound of a fiddle I'm hearing?

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 14:01 | 3457196 PaperWillBurn
PaperWillBurn's picture

Paper gold included. Never confuse physical with paper...we're just getting a discount until it goes dry

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 11:17 | 3456328 jekyll island
jekyll island's picture

JPMs short position is on behalf of China, not the US. Don't expect a big squeeze from this holding.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 10:11 | 3456023 Debugas
Debugas's picture

as soon as weak hands are shaken out the new QE will be announced

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 12:04 | 3456627 ActionFive
ActionFive's picture

Ah yes, more 'gold won't move until we QE' meme like last years/then QE official drives gold down more. QE makes gold go down/Japan too.LOL

Been 'shaking out week hands' meme last years. That's old too.

Had a little 'gold selling to cover margins' again.

Today, you go with 'QE ending gold sells off' or 'gold smells deflation first'

Better-because it is Friday, Sunday or Monday

 

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 12:51 | 3456872 Panafrican Funk...
Panafrican Funktron Robot's picture

I'm with you there.  The CB/PD trade is long phys/short paper.  They've been pretty obvious about this.  Just copy their trade.  

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 09:55 | 3455966 KickIce
KickIce's picture

How else can a poor banker create money from thin air and convert it to prime real estate and PMs?

Notice the story on rental properties?  More people willing to rent rather than own, just like the elites like it.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 10:52 | 3456189 jcpicks
jcpicks's picture

What's going to happen once those that are long paper DEMAND delivery?

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 10:58 | 3456217 jvetter713
jvetter713's picture

The same thing as in 2011...they will say "We can't deliver but we'll give you a 50% premium with Fiat!"

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 11:50 | 3456564 KickIce
KickIce's picture

WW3 would be the short answer.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 12:16 | 3456705 ActionFive
ActionFive's picture

They'll get credit and we will move to the next month.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 11:19 | 3456334 Seer
Seer's picture

"More people willing to rent rather than own, just like the elites like it."

I don't believe that there's any preference other than to maintain/control power.

Everything shifts.  Anyone thinking that the big push for private "ownership" wasn't going to end doesn't understand the phrase: "that which cannot continue forever won't."

The way things are -with people not being able to get loans- it pretty much forces this outcome.  Yes, folks are profiting out of this because, well, because someone always does (and those putting in the highest wagers tend to be able to pull along the markets).

Perhaps people are sensing that there will be no real cycle back into "ownership."  I'd side with this view; and, I'm pretty sure that we're going to experience a significant paradigm shift (and even TPTB can't wrap their heads around it).

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 11:48 | 3456548 KickIce
KickIce's picture

Disagree, I think there'sa planned movement to end private property ownership in the US.  Take for example the subprime and see how much real estate ended up on the Feds/ Banks balance sheet.  All real assets from debt conjured out of thin air.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 09:34 | 3455854 Almost Solvent
Almost Solvent's picture

This isn't the sigma you're looking for . . .

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 09:36 | 3455869 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Strange how this is all happening precisely when there is a real concern that the Crimex might have delivery problems.

<There is no such thing as a coincidence within a corrupt system.>

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 09:44 | 3455906 resurger
resurger's picture

286-400 =114 Metric Tonnes short. Good luck in delivery.

Fuck the corrupt CRIMEX

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 10:02 | 3455991 Jack Napier
Jack Napier's picture

Exactly my thoughts. After record outflows of physical metal in Q1, suddenly now everybody wants to be out of paper. Hmm...

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 11:35 | 3456424 Seer
Seer's picture

"suddenly now everybody wants to be out of paper."

Just wondering... any chance that TPTB want those dollars coming back, in circulation?

It's just tough to figure out, it seems like we're short both USD* AND physical PMs.

* While the USD is itself paper, the amount in circulation is dwarfed by what's on the books.

If by "paper" you meant PMs, then you can partly ignore the above.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 10:12 | 3456026 MythicalFish
MythicalFish's picture

Agreed. Someone please give the "Sigma-Tyler" a copy of Black Swan..

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 09:45 | 3455917 tip e. canoe
tip e. canoe's picture

correction: Armstrong sees the possibility of 1000 being tested.

Armstrong also recognizes that the POG does not exist in a vacuum.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 11:48 | 3456534 oak
oak's picture

he lost his touch long time ago

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 10:09 | 3456020 butchee
butchee's picture

"Fat tails, bitches."  Cauchy

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 12:51 | 3456874 HoofHearted
HoofHearted's picture

"Fat tails, bitchez like Black and Scholes." - Pareto

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 10:25 | 3456082 forwardho
forwardho's picture

So he thinks miners will sell well below production cost?

Has he actually ever run a real company?

Delivery will not take place below cost...ever.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 10:41 | 3456135 Seer
Seer's picture

I think that you're missing the measurement here.

It's 5-day running averages, not life-cycles, not how much UP or DOWN over a longer period.  This clearly signals an attack (TPTB trying to exert control [to save the USD] or someone big is on the edge of blowing up).

I'd be curious to compare this move to any others.  Am think that for the most part very few things have hit like this, 10%-ish, (w/o resulting in a near or total collapse).

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 11:57 | 3456600 stewie
stewie's picture

Not entirely correct.  Read link from Alea Iactaest above. 

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 09:32 | 3455842 resurger
resurger's picture

Phat paper short squeeze with an upward kurtosis on a normal distribution worth 15%, 7 SD, with a confidence level of 100% ...

Long story short, buy the bombaclat 999 pure gold and silva physikaall

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 10:44 | 3456155 Keyser-Soze
Keyser-Soze's picture

Great analogy!

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 11:03 | 3456203 JeffB
JeffB's picture

So I wonder what would be the equivalent for flipping a fair $5 gold piece x times and it landing on "heads" every time. A couple of hundred times? A few thousand?

Per Wikipedia, 7 sigma equates to:

For various values of z, the percentage of values expected to lie in and outside the symmetric interval, CI = (-z &sigma;, z &sigma;), are as follows:

% within 7 sigma: 99.9999999997440%

$ outside 7 sigma:
0.000000000256%

fraction outside 7 sigma:

1 / 390,682,215,445

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 11:54 | 3456584 Seer
Seer's picture

So, based on these numbers there can't be someone taller than Yao Ming? (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_tallest_players_in_National_Basketb... says there's been three other NBA players taller than Ming - when there's 7+ billion humans this seems to beat the odds)

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 10:55 | 3456206 Bicycle Repairman
Bicycle Repairman's picture

"Fat tails bitchez."

It isn't a random event. 

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 09:20 | 3455753 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

 

 

There has never been
a better time to buy gold!

Hurry down to your coin dealer
and buy the fucking dip
you fucking idiot.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 09:20 | 3455774 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Wait for it HH.  Depending on the dealer, taking delivery of new orders may take up to a month.  Something isn't right.  More evidence that the physical market and paper markets are seriously disconnecting.  Now let's see, how has that worked out before?  History is pretty clear on where this leads.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 09:26 | 3455812 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

 

 

The Twelve Steps

  1. We came to understand that our government is powerless over its spending - that our nation's debt had become unmanageable.
  2. We came to believe that a power greater than our fiat currency could restore us to sanity.
  3. We made a decision to turn our savings and our investments over to the care of gold, as we understand gold to be a physical asset - not a paper promise.
  4. We made a searching and fearless inventory of our wealth.
  5. We converted to gold, to Krugerrands, and to Maple Leafs, the fiat paper assets of our wealth, thus eliminating our counterparties.
  6. We were entirely ready to have gold remove all risk of default.
  7. We humbly asked the coin dealer to reduce our exposure to The Inflation Tax.
  8. We made a list of those politicians that expose us to The Inflation Tax, and became willing to work against them all.
  9. We gave direct support to Libertarians whenever possible, except when no Libertarian is on the ballot, and then we voted against the incumbent.
  10. We continued to create wealth through our own industry, and then we converted it to gold, and promptly buried it.
  11. We sought through silver coins to increase our contact with precious metal, as we understand silver to be a physical asset - not a paper promise, paying for as many day-to-day transactions with silver as possible, using our credit card (not debit) for what was not, and paying off the entire balance each month.
  12. We, having had a fiscal awakening as the result of these steps, tried to carry this message to others, and to practice these principles in all our affairs.

http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/2013-01-18/twelve-steps

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 09:31 | 3455841 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

That.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 09:37 | 3455871 MichiganMilitiaMan
MichiganMilitiaMan's picture

Inspiring!

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 09:46 | 3455919 Rory_Breaker
Rory_Breaker's picture

+12!

 

Thanks for reposting. I especially like number 10.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 09:54 | 3455958 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

It works if you work it.  Keep coming back -- to your coin dealer.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 10:20 | 3456067 forwardho
forwardho's picture

To thy own self be true.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 10:47 | 3456166 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

You're worth it!

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 11:45 | 3456505 knukles
knukles's picture

Rarely have we seen a person fail who has thoroughly followed our path.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 09:23 | 3455795 Banksters
Banksters's picture

In other news:

 

 

Boston Marathon bombs: the early theories

The first is that domestic right-wing extremists were responsible. The second is that Islamists, either foreign or American, and linked to al-Qaeda spiritually or practically, were to blame. A third possibility is killers with no ideological agenda whatsoever.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/northamerica/usa/9997156/Boston-Marathon-bombs-the-early-theories.html Right wing extremist is code for those who refuse to give up their constitutional rights.

 

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 09:27 | 3455815 john39
john39's picture

according to big brother, it was that nefarious emmanuel goldstein yet again....

in other words, who gives a shit about the news, its all bullshit.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 10:55 | 3455828 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

The first is that domestic right-wing extremists

 

Well....obviously. Unless you live in the normal part of the country.

 

We don't want to jump to conclusions.......but we absolutely will anyway.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 10:57 | 3456226 Gazooks
Gazooks's picture

GS shorting Nike

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 09:28 | 3455821 dryam
dryam's picture

One of the first things I thought of when I heard about the bombings was "hmm, I wonder how the politicians will take advantage of this crisis for their political purposes."

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 09:35 | 3455865 Rainman
Rainman's picture

can see it comin'....background checks for all fireworks purchases.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 09:57 | 3455968 GeezerGeek
GeezerGeek's picture

I also heard that the devices were packed with ball bearings. I hope no one on ZH has anything to do with those weapons of mass destruction. (Apologies to DCRB.)

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 10:06 | 3456007 overmedicatedun...
overmedicatedundersexed's picture

Geezer:" I hope no one on ZH has anything to do with those weapons of mass destruction. (Apologies to DCRB.)"

you are an idiot, no one on ZH works for the CIA, NSA,DIA, and big moma's DHS.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 12:58 | 3456185 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

My guess is that the lazy MSM press does not know the difference between steel balls and steel bearings.  Ahh, the abuse we bearings have to put up with, no wonder we give out at 60,000 miles.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 09:57 | 3455972 duo
duo's picture

background checks for backpack purchases.

Ball bearings now under control of BATF.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 09:43 | 3455897 duo
duo's picture

ABC Good morning said that if it was Islamists, they had help from Domestic Terrorists.

Round up the usual suspects.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 09:48 | 3455931 Lets_Eat_Ben
Lets_Eat_Ben's picture

When they start naming suspects hours after the event (see 9-11) without the necessary investigation, WATCH THE FUCK OUT!

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 11:06 | 3456275 Ignatius
Ignatius's picture

Right.

At this point in the '5 W's' we know some what (bombs) and some where (Boston Marathon) and when.

Who? (all speculation at this time)

Why? (all speculaion at this time)

Yet as of this AM we're hearing a load (yes, that kinda load) of "Saudi, Patriots, Domestic"...etc. WITHOUT ANY EVIDENCE PRESENTED. 

Video cameras are everywhere nowadays and I'm inclined to believe that there is the likely possibility that they were capturing the relevant areas.  Who has them? Any talk of them? Did the FBI grab them?

Evidence, damn it, evidence or these pundits s/be told to STFU.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 11:44 | 3456501 Seer
Seer's picture

Aren't some of the hijackers from 9/11 still alive?  Seems they could re-use these folks seeing as there's alreay a nice handy storyline in place... (you know, budget cuts and all)

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 09:44 | 3455903 tmosley
tmosley's picture

I can't shake the feeling that it was some group of liberals trying to frame "patriots".

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 09:59 | 3455978 GeezerGeek
GeezerGeek's picture

It will be revealed that the explosive element was, wait for it, gunpowder! Soon it will be necessary to have a special license to buy gunpowder, which will eliminate all those reloaders out there.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 10:00 | 3455984 New England Patriot
New England Patriot's picture

This theory has my money.

 

Long gunpowder.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 11:45 | 3456521 Seer
Seer's picture

Usually it's fascists (as has been clearly documented over in Italy).  But, Party Pussies like to toss "liberals" out there in order to chase the non-thinkers toward Their party...

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 10:16 | 3456048 ChanceIs
ChanceIs's picture

Clearly it was Michelle Bachman and Sara Palin who did the dirty work.  Just like Sara shot Gabriele Giffords.  Remember the significance.  Boston Marathon....Boston Tea Party.  Tea Baggers.  Sara and Michelle.  Get it now??  Duh.

Why did they do it?

Because Bill and Hillary won't go to Margaret Thatcher's funeral.

Is there anything else I need to explain to you?

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 10:57 | 3456129 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

The US will not be sending any public officials to the Iron Lady's funeral. Fine with her.....she never could stand marxists.

OBAMA SNUBS THATCHER FUNERAL...

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 11:48 | 3456546 knukles
knukles's picture

The implication is much deeper than his political (or lefties in general) ideology.
You do not fuck with the City.
Do Not rub their noses in it
Slight them
Piss them off
Ever wonder why there is a "special" relationship and who needs whom?

One does not mess with the City.
Show your respect, or be rehypothecated to death.

The arrogance of some folk is just beyond me

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 11:48 | 3456541 Seer
Seer's picture

Of course, human nature tells us that ONLY "liberals" are capable of acts of terrorism...

I'm sure you missed naming a couple of names NOT from YOUR party...

This kind of shit starts sounding like high school social circle shit.  Meanwhile TPTB continue to roll...

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 11:50 | 3456558 knukles
knukles's picture

The Hegelian Dialectic in action at its most basal level.
Keep them arguing over the small shit while the real thievery continues unnoticed.

Divert attention

Just like Magic Tricks

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 12:07 | 3456657 ChanceIs
ChanceIs's picture

Please pardon.  I was being cynical to the max - about all aspects of the matter....the press, Margaret Thatcher, who is going to the funeral, who isn't, who was invited, etc.

You would have to check me, but I am very sure that Sara Palin stood accused of having somehow incited the shooting in which Rep Giffords was wounded. The accusation was bizarre.  I would hope that everyone recognized that.

 

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 12:23 | 3456742 Seer
Seer's picture

"You would have to check me, but I am very sure that Sara Palin stood accused of having somehow incited the shooting in which Rep Giffords was wounded."

Come fucking on!

You take what might have been blathered by one sociopath (against another one at that!) and then you classify everyone that might be close to wearing the same shoes as ALL being the SAME?

Fuck your pathetic attempts to weasel Party/Ideological BS into this mix.  Dollars to donuts you're some piss-ant party player.  You all will be chewed up and spit out: and that goes for all the piss-ant party players on ALL Party teams.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 10:43 | 3456145 Seer
Seer's picture

Amazing how the programming works... it's like they're force-feeding us to ONLY accept these possibilities.  No mention of covert govt operation? (knowing full well that this is in fact a possibility, as history proves)

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 09:27 | 3455817 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

Well, I've got a couple of friend who asked me to help them buy gold and silver.

They took the day off today to go buy it.

ALL SHOPS HAVE NOTHING OVER HERE IN BELGIUM!!!

NOTHING!!!

IT'S NUTS!!

Been calling every shop accross Belgium and all they have is silver at 26 euro's and gold at 1250 euro's.

The big sale still needs to materialise for most people.

The stores do say that maybe there will be supply available if the price keeps at these levels for 10 days.

 

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 09:38 | 3455881 The Onion Of Tw...
The Onion Of Twickenham's picture

Yup, BullionByPost who are one of the big gold coin sellers in the UK have this announcement on their front page:

 

Record Orders!

Due to unprecedented demand we are not able to offer next working day delivery. Orders will be dispatched as soon as possible in the order that funds are received. We expect to dispatch most orders within 1 week.

 

So many buyers that there's a shortage of metal and yet the price has plunged? When the truth of this shit comes out you better duck, you suckers.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 09:42 | 3455891 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

http://www.nuernberg-edelmetalle.de/

http://www.preciousmetalhouse.com/checkout/cart/

https://www.doijerkalff.nl/zilveren-munten-kopen.html

same here. They are all calling each other to ask if they got supply.

NONE!

I got one supplier who said he was getting some mapple in a few days but that is a backlog order that is already spoken for.

 

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 10:01 | 3455992 GeezerGeek
GeezerGeek's picture

It looks like DHS put in a huge order for bullion coins, just like they did with gun ammunition. The government wanted to save some money (low on printer ink, I guess) so they had to crash the price levels first. 

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 10:58 | 3456227 circusmaestro
circusmaestro's picture

man, this is not true. I just comeback from a retail house here in brussels

They have what you need. try G4EX !

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 09:42 | 3455895 Gavrikon
Gavrikon's picture

You're either shopping in the wrong place, or Belgium is everly fucked up.  I can buy them all day at 21,28 (at the time I wrote this).

http://www.heubach-edelmetalle.de/?q=node/621

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 10:30 | 3456103 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

well can you guys buy them or can't you?

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 10:16 | 3456041 Floordawg
Floordawg's picture

There are gold shops on almost every corner here in Thailand... with plenty of stock!

1 Baht bars (Baht as in a measurement of weight not the currency) are equivalent approx. to 1/2 an Ounce... and the "premium" is only $3 per bar (Yes, $3 piddly greenbacks)... eat your hearts out my fellow Bitchez!

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 10:40 | 3456132 moonstears
moonstears's picture

Thai gold is, 93% right? Still glad for you!

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 13:25 | 3457025 Floordawg
Floordawg's picture

At reputable stores, the bars have a purity of 96.5%, but Swiss bars of 99.9% purity are also available (not sure of their pricing yet). Another interesting thing I've learned is that all the gold stores here have their own unique stamp on the bars they sell that expedite a simple and very fair buy-back process (only 1% under spot).

Chok-dee tuk khon! (Good luck everyone)!

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 11:12 | 3456181 SilverRhino
SilverRhino's picture

So essentially you are paying a six dollar premium for your gold?  

Damn ... I take it back ... that's good.

 

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 10:58 | 3456216 circusmaestro
circusmaestro's picture

man, this is not true. I just comeback from a retail house here in brussels

They have what you need. G4EX !

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 09:51 | 3455954 arch101
arch101's picture

BTFD (on the double inverses)

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 09:18 | 3455758 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Just more evidence of a properly functioning "market" < sarc off >  LMFAO!  End the fucking Fed.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 09:18 | 3455761 musket
musket's picture

The crash came off better than they planned it.......

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 09:21 | 3455794 duo
duo's picture

Excacly.  JPM changes from net short to net long, and due to the shortages of physical at retail, very few get to participate in the bargain.  The only way to play as an average schmo is GLD/SLV.  They will die next.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 09:30 | 3455826 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

is it me or is this push to $1400 going to fail and a violent ride down into the $1200 ensues? If I was JPM etc. that's what i'd do. take that buy the dip crowd and hit them with another round. If this is the end game then this move up is just another gift for anyone trying to get out of paper.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 09:32 | 3455849 fuu
fuu's picture

Beware the dead cat bounce?

Still a good time to ditch shares of the S&P and pick up 1 oz of gold and 6 oz of silver.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 09:35 | 3455870 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

I think it is a dead cat bounce that will fail and a massive buying rush at the same time. Weird.

Yes, I think it is an excellent time to ditch the S&P however if gold fails and the S&P holds I give up.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 09:46 | 3455924 fuu
fuu's picture

Could be a good compression play.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 09:52 | 3455952 tip e. canoe
tip e. canoe's picture

my thoughts exactly fonz.    when playing multi-dimensional chess with reptiles, best to always think 3 steps ahead. 

better get prepared for the s&P to levitate just a little while longer than you expect though.   house-buying season is just getting started.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 10:33 | 3456107 ParkAveFlasher
ParkAveFlasher's picture

If by "house buying" you mean "geographical re-allocation of fiat through mortgage/salary conduits", I might agree.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 10:50 | 3456182 tip e. canoe
tip e. canoe's picture

the FeRNs must flow

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 10:37 | 3456124 Boston
Boston's picture

I HOPE it's a dead cat bounce. I still have open orders to fill at 1300, 1250 and 1200.

But if the S&P collapses as it did in 2008, then I (as someone who anticipated the recent drop right here in comments over the last few weeks) wouldn't be surprised if 1200 doesn't hold. So just in case, I'm entering orders for 1100, 1000, and even 900.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 12:26 | 3456173 Seer
Seer's picture

There are very few "talking-heads" out there that I'll give the time of day for; one exception, however, is Dr. Paul Craig Roberts.  I trust this guy.  Here's what he has to say (hat tip to a fellow ZH-er for posting this on this site the other day):

http://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2013/04/13/assault-on-gold-update-paul-c...

Pay attention to the calculations that he provides- simple, yet quite demonstrative.  He does logic pretty well...

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 09:41 | 3455887 resurger
resurger's picture

They have made a mistake no doubt, the goldcore report killed the CRIMEX.

From lots of sources iv been hearing that many gold buyers went buckwild on physical from this drop.. imagine draining the CRIMEX 286 tonnes on real physical demand ...

Shot squeeze is coming...

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 09:19 | 3455762 dryam
dryam's picture

Ok, ok, I'm convinced.  Going to make a quite sizable silver purchase this morning.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 09:26 | 3455818 Jacque Itch
Jacque Itch's picture

I would hold off.  If this is a weak bounce it will head lower quickly.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 09:48 | 3455935 auric1234
auric1234's picture

The lower it goes, the less chances you'll have at buying the real thing.

Sell your paper now while you still have the chance. Don't be the bagholder.

 

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 09:53 | 3455959 Al Huxley
Al Huxley's picture

Hold off, and there will be even less available.  Right now it's getting hard to buy (check the stocks in online stores, or call or visit a local shop), a few more days at these or lower prices and the situation will be a lot worse.  There are a surprisingly large number of people who actually understand what $85 billion/month in new debt and Cyprus 'bail-ins' mean for them.  The majority might be sheep, but it doesn't take a very big crowd to buy out the stock of pms available for retail purchase.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 10:11 | 3456021 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Al my guy said he is shocked at how many new buyers came in recently because they are scared of confiscation of deposits...and I live amongst the dumbest crowd in this country....

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 10:36 | 3456123 unwashedmass
unwashedmass's picture

me too....i live in northern new england, and there are trees here smarter than most people. and four people asked me how to buy gold and silver yesterday........went to three local coin shops and they all have NOTHING. its all gone. 

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 12:29 | 3456759 Seer
Seer's picture

"Hold off, and there will be even less available. "

There's also the chance that lots will be pushed out on to the market (for real) due to a continued squeeze (on non-PM related holdings).

If there's anything that I've learned about all this is that there's a lot more complexity operating than we could ever really know/figure; and when you think you've got it figured TPTB will have spun things around (though eventually their days of getting us to chase paper will run to an end).

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 09:43 | 3455900 Gavrikon
Gavrikon's picture

Teah, buy 1/2 now.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 09:19 | 3455763 Kina
Kina's picture

Suspect this will end with midgets everywhere.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 09:53 | 3455956 Gief Gold Plox
Gief Gold Plox's picture

The SEC might like it if there was some porn involved.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 12:31 | 3456766 Seer
Seer's picture

Midgets with naked shorts... yes, this most definitely IS the circus!

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 09:17 | 3455764 FieldingMellish
FieldingMellish's picture

Time for some action on the other side of the curve.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 09:19 | 3455767 agent default
agent default's picture

Bear market or bear trap?

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 09:43 | 3455884 paddy0761
paddy0761's picture

agent default

I think you are spot on. This is the capitulation at the end of a normal wave 4 correction within a Major wave III. As long as $1032 (spot) is not penetrated on the downside, this is still a secular bull market.
In the typical anatomy of a bull market, we have had the accumulation phase up from $253 to $1032 then a correction down to $681, next came the awareness phase from $681 to $1920. We are now in the "bear trap" which is where many will throw in the towel. $1300 is a good support level and might hold, but probably not. It is more likely what we see today is the start of a "relief rally" and then one more leg down to complete the trap. Something around $1200 seems more likely. Wherever the bottom arrives, the move out of the bear trap is likely to be epic; either 5x or 8x the bottom price. Who knows? The bottom may already be in.

http://www.safehaven.com/article/29486/golds-bull-market-is-not-over

 

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 09:51 | 3455943 auric1234
auric1234's picture

Who cares? It may as well go down to $1. When the paper price disappears, we will all realize profits. And it won't be in USD.

 

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 10:53 | 3456193 Seer
Seer's picture

Not sure how you can "realize profits," but one this is certain: you aren't likely going to go to zero, as fiat will ultimately do.  Again, PMs are about CONSERVING weatlh, not making it.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 10:09 | 3456014 slyhill
slyhill's picture

Let's ask Admiral Ackbar: 

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dddAi8FF3F4

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 09:18 | 3455769 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Okay generaly I'm pretty good with charts....but I'm a little lost on this one.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 09:21 | 3455783 knukles
knukles's picture

Just an abnormal in the normal thingamajig.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 09:25 | 3455805 Rainman
Rainman's picture

just imagine bubble meets pin

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 09:22 | 3455789 FieldingMellish
FieldingMellish's picture

Standard deviation histogram.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 09:23 | 3455797 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Correct, yesterday was one hell of an outlier.  

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 09:27 | 3455808 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Got it thanks...It took me a bit to figure that one out. I do know that the last five days have been a pretty good shake out, and should serve to  deliver some precious metals into stronger hands.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 09:37 | 3455876 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

Damn, ask a question and you get an answer around here!  Look at all the replies, below.  We helped the shit out of you six ways from Sunday!  Smothered to death with help!

 

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 09:42 | 3455896 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

That's one of the things I love about this place.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 10:55 | 3456205 Jena
Jena's picture

Amen to that.

When you have something that is so wildly abnormal and can compare it to what you know to be the norm, then see it in chart view and have all these great explanations, terms come into focus.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 09:21 | 3455793 Shell Game
Shell Game's picture

My takeaway:  generate a stack 7' 7" in height.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 10:55 | 3456208 Kaiser Doomheiser
Kaiser Doomheiser's picture

So you're saying I should sell some of my stack?

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 15:27 | 3457629 Shell Game
Shell Game's picture

I'll buy that.   ;)

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 09:28 | 3455822 BandGap
BandGap's picture

Anything on the extreme edge of a Gaussian curve means it is an extraordinary event (I use the singular since each five day rolling data point average is counted as a single point). In fact, if this wasn't a five day rolling average chart I would treat this event as an outlier.

Extraordinary events such as these tend to be one of two things - an act of God or a highly coordinated event meant to be extreme.

Your choice.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 09:44 | 3455907 Quonk
Quonk's picture

I refuse to believe that Ben Bernanke and Jamie Dimon are god.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 09:31 | 3455836 YHC-FTSE
YHC-FTSE's picture

SD as the guy said. It's a normalized distribution chart, representing all the stuff that happens in a data sample/population. So you can see most fall into the middle, and very few fall into the sides: sigma parts. You see the same thing with population & IQ, the sides representing extremely dumb and extremely clever people, with most in the middle.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 09:41 | 3455864 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

Percentage change of a move along the bottom, number of occurrances up and down.  In other words, a 7 sigma (standard deviation) move is smooshed way the hell in the bottom left corner because there have been so damned few of them (the height of the bar for the number of 7 sigma moves is really REALLY short).

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 10:36 | 3456120 resurger
resurger's picture

Simplified Dr.

 This kind of chart is similar to a VaR (Value at Risk) model that uses Normal Distribution which is the most famous one (there are other advanced models), VaR measures the maximum loss you can incur on a normal business day based on market volatility.

The VaR model has the mean (where your average losses based on your position is concentrated in the middle if the market moves normally like gold moves +- 1% a day), the distance between any point from either the left (loss) or right (profit) is the SD (Standard Deviation) or Sigma - you can apply some confidence levels usually 95%-99% that your loss will not exceed a certain point on the left  95 99% of the time.

Now if you have some mega fucking volatility (like we have seen yesterday -10%) which is abnormal (and very rarely happens) this is an anomaly, so your point is really far away from the mean, and the distance is measured in 7 Sigma moves which is "Fucked Up)

IF the your position is highly leveraged (which is the case with the TPTB banks) you will have fat tails which means big big losses for small volatility, so imagine how this will look like when the S&P or the Bond market crashes on leveraged positions, this is also a high Kurtosis.

hope that helps.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 10:57 | 3456209 Seer
Seer's picture

It's saying that the odds of what has just occurred is so remote that you'd be just as likely to be able to use the chart to find yourself out of the woods... (nearly a non-sequitur it's so fucking out of whack)

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 09:19 | 3455777 unwashedmass
unwashedmass's picture

hey when the government is colluding with you......your asshole buddy partner in crime....anything is possible. 

and, after all, isn't the goal to nail the escape hatches shut for the peasants? 

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 11:02 | 3456252 Seer
Seer's picture

"isn't the goal to nail the escape hatches shut for the peasants? "

I'm not thinking that they even care to waste the nails and energy...

The "goal" is as it's always been, and that's to maintain power.  The exertion of power feels greater when things are on the "corrective side," as it tends to come down to mostly bigger players being forced to engage one-another (clash of the titans): on the up-side everyone's getting "compensated," in which case there's plenty of $$s to apply toward any pains.

Consolidation of power.  It's a natural thing, for human nature that is...

Someone above noted that up in NE England(?) folks were dumber than the trees.  If someone here thinks that way then what do TPTB think of "us?"  Would WE wish to give more control to the "trees?"  Would TPTB wish to give "us" more control?  In the final analysis it doesn't really matter because the System is far too complex to survive (it's WAY beyond sustainable in this physical/natural world).

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 09:19 | 3455779 Divine Wind
Divine Wind's picture

 

 

How do I convert this into cubits?

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 09:19 | 3455780 Lucius Corneliu...
Lucius Cornelius Sulla's picture

GG and NEM were selling below book yesterday.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 09:20 | 3455784 The Continental
The Continental's picture

With massive selling once again in the gold and silver markets, today whistleblower Andrew Maguire told King World News the reason for the recent takedown in gold and silver was because of an imminent LBMA default. Here is what Maguire had to say in part II of this remarkable and exclusive interview.
      
 
 
   
Maguire: “Gold and silver only have this type of selling when there are extreme shortages of the physical metal. I am totally aware that before this takedown occurred there was an imminent LBMA default.

We had already seen COMEX inventories plunging. In 90 days COMEX inventories saw an incredible decline. So immediately available physical gold was disappearing. People around the world don’t understand what has been happening since Cyprus....

“Entities went to the LBMA and said, ‘We don’t trust anybody anymore. We want our physical metal.’ They were told they would be cash settled instead by a bullion bank. The Western governments have been trying to plug holes, and the reason for it has to do with the default that was taking place at the LBMA.

This is why this smash has been orchestrated because of the run that has been taking place on physical metal. So Western governments had to do this because of an imminent run on the unallocated LBMA system. The LBMA bullion banks had become so mismatched at one point on their trading positions vs real world demand that they had to orchestrate this smash.

This orchestrated smash in gold and silver was nothing short of a bailout for the bullion banks. So there is a run on physical gold that is taking place and the Ponzi scheme the West is running is being threatened because of it.”

Maguire also added: “We are nearing the end of this decline. Physical demand is already beginning to catch up with leveraged paper. If gold were to trade into the low $1,300s it would be unsustainable for very long.”

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2013/4/15_Maguire_-_LBMA_Default_Triggered_Gold_%26_Silver_Takedown.html

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