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'Cleanest Dirty Shirt' Or 'Greatest Fool'?
Little comment necessary here except a reminder for US investors that return of capital is a higher priority than return on capital and the divergences are becoming increasingly unsustainable. As investors stare blankly, pointing fingers at gold, we also address what it means when Gold and Treasuries are rallying at the same time...
Year-to-date performance...
If its earnings that US equity investors are hoping for - don;t hold your breath... Via Goldman Sachs:
So far, 46 companies have reported 1Q results (14% of total cap). 41% of companies reporting have beaten earnings estimates (below the historical average of 47%) and 9% have missed estimates.
The average EPS surprise has been 3.7%, below the 4.8% historical average. Excluding Financials, there are fewer positive surprises (40%) and similar negative surprises (9%).
Excluding Financials and Utilities, 29% of companies reporting have beaten sales estimates (below the historical average of 38%) and 20% have missed estimates (vs. average of 18%).
The average revenue surprise has been 0.7%, below the 1.3% historical average.
Since yesterday's close (despite the overnight excitement in Japanese stocks), Gold and Treasuries have been rising together...
One of the best explanations we have seen for the phenomena of Gold and Treasuries rising at the same time is from David Goldman:
Why should gold and Treasury bonds go up together?
Gold is an inflation signal and bonds are a deflation hedge.
At first glance it seems very strange for both of them to rise together.
Why should this be happening?
The answer is simple: bonds are an option on the short-term interest rate, and gold is a perpetual put option on the dollar. Both rise with volatility.
It’s like the old joke about the thermos bottle: “How does it know if it’s hot or cold?”
If the policy compass is spinning and there’s no way to predict how governments will react, you don’t know whether to hedge for inflation or deflation, so you hedge for both.
By put-call parity, if there is huge volatility in the policy responses of governments, the option-value of both gold and bonds goes up.
So today's rise in bonds and gold (and this weakness in risk assets) is not complex - it is simply a realization that "the policy compass is spinning" and government responses are increasingly uncertain once again.
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This policies are formulated by people who vastly overestimate what the Euro means for the Europeans, for the Euro-area.
Seeing that the world monetary system is one giant fiat fractional reserve government debt savings destroying malinvestment manufacturing ponzi, all holders of fiat at just about any price are fools.
..and they vastly overestimate the value in terms of virtue of the political capital they have expended.
Really? Maybe I'm sheltered but it seems like people with this worldview are in the minority, with the majority either addicted to Dancing With the Stars or swallowing MSM propaganda without an afterthought.
The Sheeple are minor players in the expenditure. Political capital is traded among the Players. It is the Players who must lose confidence in the game.
I sympathize with your frustration, however.
Unless of course, the little guys are presented with a paradigm that gives them a way out of their shitty, little dead-end worlds, and the leisure to pick off the parasites. I know, I know, unthinkable!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EnO8MWyK-H0
In finance, the majority is always wrong.
Im thinking roulette wheel, not compass needle
Russian roulette sounds more like it to me.
And only one cylinder is empty...
Or Russian roulette with a semi-automatic pistol.
Or a blunderbuss!
Today's rise in gold?
By looking at the chart we could be in for another leg down. But I could be wrong.
I know the thermos is hot because why would i put cold water in a thermos? I have no idea what was masturbated above..but I do know a war trade when I see one...and gold "hanging on" while treasuries "are forced to the moon" says war...war...war...war...war. I do agree and why I love this site (yes I feel the live back) is Ye olde "WTF with equities?" thing just really does stand out. Simply put "I have no phucking idea." and that's that!
Ok Gold Has had its run. Get on to the new "realities" present NOW.
Yeah, like the 33 year bull market bubble in western bonds, specifically of the US variety.
the Federal budget deficit @ $17T is a growing bubble, the fiat printing pn Ben Shalom Beranke is a 3 year $3T bubble and growing..... have you factored thta bit of intel into your thin as gruel analysis ?
Then bow your head in shame and get back to the drawung board....
The national debt was $398,129,744,455.54 in 1971
Multiply that for every year that has passed until today by 1.094.
Check your number compare against the current national debt. If you bothered to do this, and you haven't, you'll find out our national debt has gone up (on average) at 9.4% a year for 42 years now.
Now check these numbers out:
2013 $17,576,468,099,680
2014 $19,228,656,101,050
2015 $21,036,149,774,549
2016 $23,013,547,853,356
2017 $25,176,821,351,572
2018 $27,543,442,558,620
2019 $30,132,526,159,130
2020 $32,964,983,618,088
2021 $36,063,692,078,188
2022 $39,453,679,133,538
That's what our national debt will be (at the end of each year) if this continues.
Now if you want some real fun, divide federal tax revenue into the debt for every year. I'd post the graph, but the fucks here won't let me post pictures anymore.
Whats up with Brazil
Nothing ..... except the cost of living and corruption.
the cost of living can be $1000 per month for a single person, if you live modest lifestyle. The corruption exists in Berlin, London, Shangai, Washington and so on, so it is obvious it will exist in Brasilia too. The main concern in Brasil is the security. It makes it bit less attractive, but the nice climate, lack of natural disasters, nice beaches and pretty girls make up for that. but if you want
That's the title of an excellent movie, every ZHer should watch...
What have you done with my husband's body?!
Unless I'm mistaken Central banks haven't cleared out all the worthless bullion in there vaults and replaced it with newly printed and obviously more valuable FIAT have they!!!!
Picked a heck of time to be eating lunch! And I was always concerned about consuming beverages while reading ZH! (didn't see that one coming!)
Take away: one can eject food as well as beverage from one's mouth given appropriate comments posted here on ZH.
You're mistaken.
The word of the year is rehypothecation.
The phrase of the year is "naked short selling" (of about anything - stocks, gold...)
I just got back from Scotiabank Edmonton. They are cleaned out. Nothing in stock, not even 10 oz. So I asked the manager if I can just make an order and pick it up in a week or so like I have before. He said Toronto is cleaned out too so they are not taking orders. He said Toronto will get their inventory in 2 days and then the rest of Canada will get their inventory in 2 days after that. He said ScotiaMaccota online might have some but their markups are a lot higher then the main bullion bank branches.
Can anyone confirm this in Toronto ?
All this talk about the COMEX, silver, GLD (gold ETF's), manipulation, bull vs bear, is all noise to me. Even I have been caught up in this.
Why should anyone care what is going on in any gold market, paper or physical until something happens in the US and Japanese 33 year bubble bull markets ?
I still maintain as I said 2 years ago, that the onset of freegold happens when there is selling/trouble in the BOND markets mainly in the US and Japan.
$1000 dollar gold, $2000 gold , what is the difference ? Who cares ? I have paid close to both. As long as BOND prices keep rising and the FED can do no wrong, nothing matters. As long as BONDS are the premier store of value for shrimps and giants alike, long or short term, nothing matters.
Nothing matters in GLD, nothing matters at the coin dealers, nothing matters at the bullion banks, nothing matters at King World News et al.
This is like being in late 60's and early 70's yaking about the price of gold as it bounces between $35 and $60. It didn't matter if you bought at $35 or $80 then until there was trouble in the BOND market and it doesn't matter now as it bounces between $1000 and $2000 now.
Wake me up when the 33 year bull bubble grenades. Then we can talk gold prices.
Cleanest dirty shirt ?
http://freegoldobserver.blogspot.ca/2012/11/greece-portugal-spain-and-ir...
Im in Edmonton too and vowed never to deal with Mccota again.
Silver Gold Bull (calgary based) is where I go.
Put my order in today and they are saying 20day lag time....never seen that EVER!
I'm in Calgary using a smaller distributor (Albern). They were all out of silver last week, but they called this morning saying that they've had their delivery and are putting aside some 10oz bars for me.
FROM SILVERGOLD BULL: Sorry, we can't price match today because most of our competitors don't have product available.When purchasing precious metals, our Best Price Guarantee ensures you always get the best price on your orders with us.
Silver Gold Bull - Your Trusted Bullion Dealer
CRAZY?!?!?!
If y'all are buying PM's from a bank whose slogan is "you're richer than you think", then might I suggest having some way of testing those bars? They might be "more pure than you think", if you get what I'm sayin'.
Harv Organ has outlined a number of times how that bank is aiding and abetting the crooked comex. I would go to that bank only to piss in the foyer, never to deal with them.
If they print their corporate logo on a bar of tungsten, they would be liable for some serious lawsuits. I don't think they are doing it.
Commissions are under 1% there depending what you buy..
Mccota is online. The main city branches are the bullion bank. For buying 5 or 10 oz bars, they have good commissions and the more you buy, the better exchange rate you get. So I dunno... I deal with them.
Maybe not everything happens at the same time.
Sometimes the simplest statement is the most profound!
All is subjected to time, things will happen at different times and at different rates/tempos. We'll get a taste of it all in due time...
Ask to buy a certificate (with storage fees attached) When they sell it to you, demand the physical that you're paying storage fees for.
Not necessarily. If VtC is correct in his assessment, then the signal we need to see is a >10% puke of physical from GLD. http://fofoa.blogspot.com/2012/06/gld-talk-continued.html
Then there is this from FOA in August 2001: Knowing that the Euro is a fact, we must have a super gold price if the dollar is to stay in the game! The question becomes one of supporting a cheap paper price for the sole function of keeping the market and all its bullion players alive.
In other words, paper market failure is related to dollar failure and yet another signal that FG is not far away.
Victor is an interesting fellow......
I don't think anyone will be around in 30 years to wake you up. Better set your alarm.
The fact that I can get a dollar per crappy Wolf ammo .223 round tells me that lead is outperforming all other asset classes.
You should try finding primers, brass, projectiles and powder.
Just don't try to do it in the NE
I don't shoot Wolf ammo. I made the mistake of buying 1000 rnds once. I shot less than 100 and decided I wasn't running that crap through my gun.
If you bought Egyptian 9mm you wouldn't have to worry about running it through your gun... well... 80% of it anyway. But the hidden benefit of Egyptian is you get to build up your grip and your arm muscles ejecting that 80%.
I'm looking for CCI Green Tag .22LR, can't find it anywhere.
I do watch gunbot.net for it though
Unless I'm mistaken Central banks haven't cleared out all the worthless bullion in their vaults and replaced it with newly printed and obviously more valuable FIAT have they!!!!
APMEX Price hasn't fallen much on the physical market only on JP Morgans market.
Why don't physical dealers get together and create their own market? F the Morgue.
Volume Pricing: Qty Check or Wire Credit Card 1 - 9 $1,457.59 $1,501.32 10 - 19 $1,452.59 $1,496.17 20 or more $1,447.59 $1,491.02Check the APMEX site for SAEs - they're damn near all out of stock!
Earnings 'surprises' 'estimates'
Why not compare apples to apples.... last years earnings NUMBERS to this years NUMBERS instead of fake manipulated 'estimates' that get revised lower as lower the nearer it gets to reporting time so they can easily 'surprise'
Have to mostly agree with Goldman...
When the Treasuries in question are the reserve currency and "the cleanest dirty shirt", if Gold and USTs are rising together, it is a bid for safety.
Since the smart, fast money usually knows something, I wonder if Something Wicked This Way Comes on the short term horizon.
Funny how these things always seem to happen after Joe Public has already gone all-in with his RSPs/401Ks. And funny how there is never more cheerleading of markets and obfuscation of economic data than there is during the annual retirement fleecing of Joe Public.
Fiday 4:15 .
Something is riling the markets so badly that not even Ben's
POMO can stop it. A PD going down maybe ?
BofA I hope.
if Gold and USTs are rising together, it is a bid for safety.
What's safe about loaning a government that is 16.8 trillion dollars in debt, which goes further into debt by 9.4% a year, and has an income of 2.52 trillion dollars, with no reasonable way to increase that earning?
The ONLY reason anybody buys Treasury bills is that the government REQUIRES many retirement accounts to purchase them. Banks are forced to purchase them, because that's how they get loans for 0.25% - by then taking the money they've been loaned and getting a 2% interest on it.
Nobody, NOBODY buys Treasuries. Nobody. Well, maybe some IDIOTS do, but basically it's all arm twisting and rule of law forcing investment in them, becuase they are worthless.
If you buy them, you're either a fool, or somebody that has a gun to your head.
"Cleanest Dirty Shirt"... someone's been listening to some Jim Willie. ;-)
Rise in gold? LOL. Equities are merely catching up with the commodities crash. Gold has dropped almost 30% from its high 18 months ago with the latest big drop just 3 days ago. And...commodities have more room to drop. 1100 gold before we see some stability. Equities will slide as well...S&P 1450 soon. Cash rich and look for deals.
Thermos...hot or cold?
It doesn't much matter. If you shake it, you just might hear the sound of broken glass. At least that's the way they use to work.
Crashing the gold price may not be intended merely for compensating gold depositors for their long gone gold in cash right now, but rather in order to minimize its price when gold accounts are being nationalized, namely when an obligation is determined against it in fiat money terms. North-Korea has already declared and positioned itself for a spontaneous start of a nuclear war. Details here.
Bitcoin Weighted Avg:$82.26008 and climbing
We´re in an extreme and ballooning wave of technological advances. This has great deflationary pressures.
Now; Bushco promised endless wars (very helpful to commodities and armaments manufacturers) but this isn´t quite panning out. First of all the war threat isn´t really that great and second warfare has been getting more cost effective like most everything else.
Least ugly gal at the ball, cleanest dirty shirt; they have all sorts of terms for the counter-trade to pretty much everything else - the Greenback. Its demise will continue to be very elusive. Now, the end of QEs and the corresponding rising US interest rates will only strengthen it. This is very bad news for stocks and commodities. A rising dollar means fewer dollars to book back home for US multinationals in the DJIA which more or less control market direction. And of course if you´re producing commodities outside of the US you´ll be happy to get more units of your local currency to pay costs. And thus you´ll lower price to capture more market.
"We´re in an extreme and ballooning wave of technological advances. This has great deflationary pressures."
Watch out for the "law of diminishing returns." Not to mention Jevons Paradox.
I'd state that most new "advances" are losing volume, due to people's incomes being smacked down (and heavy debt), which means that returns on all the great "advancements" are starting to stagger from margin cuts. Perhaps, then, those "deflationary pressures" aren't so great after all.
Hey, Supercomputers............Charge your batteries and erase all the losses ASAP.
We are so ammune to market going up every day, please don't disappoint us.
All is well in US so keep going up and never look behind. Beat ZERO HEDGE bloggers the way you are beating them for so long. Market must move ahead irrespective of ground realities.
The answer is simple:
Bond buyers still believe in the financial system but have no belief in equities
Gold buyers have no belief in the financial system.
They both have the same destination mind .. but taking 2 completely different paths.
George ... The Greek ... From Canada
"They are both a flight to safety"
I think that it's more of a flight OF safety. No one has a clue where it's going, so the "to" part just doesn't seem able to apply.
Yep. Good point.
Hence, whey they are both going in opposite directions towards the same destination. Like the tragic Boston Marathon, both are running for cover byt don't know if they're heading to a safe place or right into another bomb
George ... The Greek ... From Canada
And, this more so than any "grand plan" is what I see as really happening. No one here, and many here think themselves smarter that those with hands on all those fancy controls (and I won't argue the point), has any direction/solution either (other than to slap hands, but when we're done with that, and perhaps putting on a bit of window dressing, it'll still be the same old world/planet).
The growth meme has been flogged way past its expiry date. TPTB know that there's nothing left. They know that if they were to tell the truth that no one would really listen anyways (the tragedy of man seems to replay here time and time again). And I'm pretty sure that they also know that global trade is going to significantly contract, which pretty much nixes equities (since most big movers are international in scope). Kind of only leaves us to face sitting on a pile of govt and a pile of rocks (PMs) wondering what to do...
Chasing "wealth" burns the most valuable thing there is- time. For peace of mind I'll accept that I'll be working until I drop, and am hoping that it'll be on the land that I'm farming... Food, Shelter and Water, it'll all come back to these.
BTW - How are you seeing things up in Canada? I picked up my wife from there (a Canadian citizen, though originally from the Philippines), in which case I tend to try an keep an eye on what's happening there.
The answer is simple:
************
Yep-
Gold up--Treasuries up--Dollar up--Commodities down--Markets down = Deflation trade-
The true flight to safety- or at least percieved safety-
Divergences have been pointed out for at least 6 months. So far none mean anything. Even today with the markets at the Monday's lows many, many stocks are higher than the other day. Where I saw actual selling on Monday I do not see it today. Some names, yes. But across the board there are tons of stocks that are down less than the market is with beta's > 1.5. Some are even higher.
Any push higher in futures pulls all boats higher. Until the tide shifts we are still in bull - buy the dip mode. Funds do not appear to want to take profits with the exception of certain, specific names. There is little to no resistance up. If there is distribution then there will be resistance as buying meets sellers. I do not see that. I see stocks down 1.5% that could be unchanged in 15 min if the futures ramp.
Gonna be a hard time dragging the market back up with AAPL pulling down. Just don't think that there's enough room to quickly swoop things around unless you have the big containers, and it appears that the big containers that exist in the market space just can't carry the loads. Said it years ago, they'll keep heaving things around until there's no place left to heave to: and keep in mind that the rate at which we lose heavers AND containers is escalating- the end of the game is much sooner that you'd think.
The world needs to sell US dollars and buy Japanese yen to invest in the next great bull market in Japan.
http://www.cecm.sfu.ca/~rpearcea/dontvoteforgold.pdf
The first graph looks like a squid...
I'm just taking advantage of the sale that is going on. I've only been able to get two ounces in the form of lady fortuna and 20 silver libertads. Payday is a long way away.
Paper Gold prices manipulated by the Jewish gangsters at GovtSachs and JP Morgan are not Gold, they are dollar denominated paper. End the discussion there, we are living in a world of make believe created by Ben Bernanke and his cartel of liars.
By the way Ben, when are you gonna stop the QE? You started this lie in 2009 and it is now mid 2013. I guess the answer is you will keep the lies going so long as the fish bite. Right! Jim Willie was right, you should be stripped of your PhD, you have been a disaster for America but, you have keep your Comrades flush with money as they are rewarded for fucking the global economy. Isnt that just like the house of Rothchild?