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Gold Buying Frenzy Continues: China, Japan, And Australia Scramble For Physical

Tyler Durden's picture




 

We noted here that the plunge in the paper price of gold (and silver) had prompted considerable renewed demand for physical and now it seems the scramble among the "more stable investor base" is increasing. The shake out of ETFs and futures has left the Australian mint short of deliverables and Japanese and Chinese gold retailers seeing a "frenzied" surge in demand. The customers are not just the 'rich' or 'elderly'; in China "they tend to wear water shoes and come directly from the market...;" in Australia, "the volume of business... is way in excess of double what we did last week,... there’s been people running through the gate," and Japanese individual investors doubled gold purchases yesterday at Tokuriki Honten, the country’s second-largest retailer of the precious metal. The panic selling by a weaker 'imminent inflation-based' investor base has sparked physical shortages - "there’s been significant sales made as people see this as great value." It seems our previous discussions of a rotation from paper to physical were correct and this physical demand will eventually leak back into the paper markets.

 

Australia (via The Age):

Gold sales from Perth Mint, which refines nearly all of the nation’s bullion, have surged after prices plunged, adding to signs that the metal’s slump to a two-year low is spurring increased demand.

 

“The volume of business that we’re putting through is way in excess of double what we did last week,” Treasurer Nigel Moffatt said, without giving precise figures. “There’s been people running through the gate.”

 

...

 

“There’s been significant sales made as people see this as great value,” Mr Moffatt said. “Gold owners are very reactive to significant market movements.”

 

...

 

The Perth Mint’s sales of gold coins climbed 49 per cent to 97,541 ounces in the three months ended March 31 from a year earlier

China (via China News):

Beijing gold store two hours to sell 20,000 grams of gold bullion trading volume of nearly 200 million

and (via YCWB):

People have to rush to buy gold, ... gold bullion out of stock yesterday, investors yesterday to spend as much as 600 million yuan to buy 20 kilograms of gold bars

 

The mad pursuit gold insufficiency is not just a game for the rich. Yesterday, the Yangcheng Evening News reporter learned from the East flowers to Bay store, many growers, pork traffickers, fishmonger recently put down his job went straight to the mall to buy gold.

Japan (via Reuters):

Some Japanese also harbor fears that the expansionary monetary and fiscal policies dubbed "Abenomics", coupled with a national debt more than twice as large as annual economic output, could trigger a crisis down the line.

 

Skeptics about the radical attempt to reflate the economy -- or those simply worried that a slide in the yen that began in anticipation of Abe's election victory last December will continue unabated -- are still buying gold, dealers say.

 

"Investors in gold are convinced that Japan's fiscal position will get worse," said Wakako Harada, general manager of Japan's top bullion house, Tanaka Kikinzoku Kogyo.

 

"What I see at our counter is that more people are getting worried about Japan. That's why we are seeing a lot of buying."

 

...

 

"In contrast this time, we are seeing interest to buy on dips to take exposures to gold,"

 

...

 

"Investors are using this opportunity to buy gold to diversify beyond bonds, stocks and the yen currency as Japan's fiscal situation could deteriorate."

(via The Age):

Japanese individual investors doubled gold purchases yesterday at Tokuriki Honten, the country’s second-largest retailer of the precious metal.

 

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Wed, 04/17/2013 - 08:49 | 3460208 fuu
fuu's picture

Gold Bitchez!

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 08:52 | 3460219 Mr. Poon
Mr. Poon's picture

Well. thank goodness whoever dropped the big sell order on Friday was long, not just opening up a naked short position that would later have to be covered, and which could be ruined if an unexpected rally were to happen between now and delivery.

Right?

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 09:00 | 3460258 Pladizow
Pladizow's picture

I didnt think we'd see gold in th 1300's ever again.

When we did, I bought 25% of all I could afford!

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 09:03 | 3460280 gmrpeabody
gmrpeabody's picture

Common sense would agree..., but sense isn't that common any more.

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 09:05 | 3460288 Long_Xau
Long_Xau's picture

"But but... we PROMISE and our backers GUARANTEE that we will deliver the 400 tons on time and in full when we produce them from a burried in a landslide tungsten mine! I swear to god you are being absolutely totally incomprehensibly stupid not trusting our word!"

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 09:07 | 3460308 krispkritter
krispkritter's picture

Paper gold 'guarantees: 'There's gold in them thar shills!'

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 09:21 | 3460346 TwoShortPlanks
TwoShortPlanks's picture

Last time I raped the Perth Mint it was at the bottom of the $50 smack down. I bought off people standing in line to fucking sell, LOL.

Max Keiser and Stacy joked that I was Jamie Dimon buying up physical to plug JPM shorts.

Love to have been there today; repeat offender!

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 09:32 | 3460415 somecallmetimmah
somecallmetimmah's picture

Anyone out there actually seeing discounted gold or silver bullion? Granted, I live in Po-dunk, but I'm not seeing it here.

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 09:37 | 3460456 BoNeSxxx
BoNeSxxx's picture

Discounted???  Heck, my coin shops don't even have any to sell!

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 09:54 | 3460523 Spider
Spider's picture

Gold production costs are at 1290 per ounce for 2012 - we're about to see some major imbalances in the marekt

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1346991-the-true-all-in-cost-to-mine-gold-complete-2012-figures

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 09:59 | 3460552 Divided States ...
Divided States of America's picture

The worst thing for the central banks is when people take the money out of their fuckin bank deposits to buy gold, thats basically an automatic deleveraging of the entire global financial system. And it has started in earnest. Lets see how long before the fuckin banks have to dump their stock holdings to make up for the drop in collateral.

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 10:04 | 3460569 Dr. No
Dr. No's picture

Huh?  When people take money from their savings and buy gold, the gold dealer takes that cash and puts it back into the bank.  There is no net loss of monetary base.  If the gold dealer stuffed it into his mattress, then yes.  And if they use a debit card, then there is not even a temporary drop ini reserves.  Its just a transfer of digits.

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 10:09 | 3460600 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

Eventually the money stops (velocity goes to zero).  That's deleveraging.  You have to look past the first transaction.   The fiat has become a fixed asset in gold.  That's not good for a credit-based economy... which is fine with me.

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 10:12 | 3460618 tip e. canoe
tip e. canoe's picture

excellent point, rock.    metals are velocity sinks.

paper smothers rock, but scissors (rock molded by human ingenuity into a tool) cut paper.

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 10:21 | 3460651 Divided States ...
Divided States of America's picture

Rocky hit it on the nail, I should have been more clear but basically yes, the velocity stops because its all stuck in the nuggets whereas it could have been multiplying like the H2N9 virus

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 10:51 | 3460765 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

Anyone out there actually seeing discounted gold or silver bullion? Granted, I live in Po-dunk, but I'm not seeing it here

~~~

A friend of mine happened to be going to the coin shop yesterday... Just for the lulz, I told him to ask the dealer what the spot + premium for ASE's was [& if you could get it anywhere near $26 or $27]... HAHAHAHA... $32.50 [& they only had 20 in stock]...

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 11:01 | 3460822 DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

"stuck in the nuggets"

bumper sticker

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 11:12 | 3460889 tip e. canoe
tip e. canoe's picture

clowns to the left of me, jokers to the right,

here i am, stuck in the nuggets with you...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OMAIsqvTh7g

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 11:46 | 3461071 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

[Cue music from movie Deliverance]... "You sure got a pretty bar, boy!"

https://online.kitco.com/products/10092/1_oz_RCM_Gold_Bar.html

Like the price of $1421.  Barely over spot.

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 11:54 | 3461207 Joe Sixpack
Joe Sixpack's picture

Here is APMEX's 100 ozt. silver bar inventory history for April 15th. Talk about cleaning out the shelves!

 

 

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 13:03 | 3461656 fonestar
fonestar's picture

We must remember during times like these that markets are not rational and are prone to herd mentality sell-offs.  When the markets realize that none of the fundamentals have changed, investors will return to the only safe-haven asset that has offered protection throughout the centuries.... bitcoin.

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 15:19 | 3462643 JimBowie1958
JimBowie1958's picture

Lol, you had me till the end there.

Bitcoin has not been around for centuries.

But it was funny as hell.

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 13:36 | 3461912 Dr. No
Dr. No's picture

Only if the FED is selling gold (asset) is monitary base been reduced.  If buyers/sellers are transacting, its just changing hands.  Its not "tied up".

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 11:46 | 3461135 Panafrican Funk...
Panafrican Funktron Robot's picture

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/MZMV?cid=32242

Note the steady decline approaching 1.  It should be noted that, the closer we get to 1, the closer we get to the event horizon.  

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 11:46 | 3461151 Panafrican Funk...
Panafrican Funktron Robot's picture

And that's the MZM.  The M1 shows the collapse more clearly:

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/M1V?cid=32242

 

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 13:23 | 3461773 Dr. No
Dr. No's picture

I disagree.  If a guy keeps his money in savings, velocity is zero.  If he withdrawals the money, buys gold, and the dealer (or the producer for those who cant connect dots) puts the money back into a svaings account, The velocity has not changed, infact it picked up a bit due to the transaction.

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 10:38 | 3460715 kliguy38
kliguy38's picture

"the gold dealer puts it in the bank"......BWAAAAAAAAA......he puts it right back into gold!!!!!

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 12:33 | 3461439 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

That was my thought too, lol

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 13:22 | 3461786 Dr. No
Dr. No's picture

Unless the FED is selling gold or the dealer/producer destroys (i.e mattress stuffing) the money after the transaction, the monetary base did not change.

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 10:12 | 3460614 RaceToTheBottom
RaceToTheBottom's picture

This is the FEDs way of making use of all those reserves in banks they shored up. 

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 10:08 | 3460596 somecallmetimmah
somecallmetimmah's picture

Exactlty.  My LCS had about 7 pathetic, worn Morgans.  Two of them mounted as necklace pendants (uggg).  Even those were $27 a piece.  When does this disconnect between paper & physical reveal itself?

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 10:54 | 3460793 tip e. canoe
tip e. canoe's picture

those necklaces were a steal at $27 mate -- perfect amulet for vampire protection, esp. when they're named after dracula himself.

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 11:11 | 3460853 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

People of Australia, China, India, Japan,

This is a BIG mistake.  Do NOT buy bullion.  In your case... it's too risky for confiscation, the storage costs are high and you risk outright theft from envious neighbors.  Even muggings.  You're much better of -- and pay less margin at both ends -- if you hold either Unallocated Pool Accounts or paper-Gold.  More liquid and portable.

You should leave the risk of hoarding bullion to North Americans, who are more used to this kind of thing, and who can store it in the great open areas or lake bottoms. Plus, unlike the Aussies, we have guns to protect the Precious and keep it out of the hands of your corrupt or socialist governments.

I'm sure other N. Am. ppl will agree with me on this.

 

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 11:08 | 3460875 jesse livermoore
jesse livermoore's picture

my local coin dealer had 10 eagles i bought them all   28.50 a piece

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 10:07 | 3460588 RobD
RobD's picture

Lower price maybe but not a big discount. Got a 1oz bar of gold at the local coin shop yesterday at $57 over spot(got lucky spot was at a inter-day low at the time) so it was $1426 out the door. They were out of silver bars and had very few ASEs.

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 09:11 | 3460319 TeamDepends
TeamDepends's picture

Can you imagine the "reshuffling" going on behind closed doors?

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 09:15 | 3460345 RagnarDanneskjold
RagnarDanneskjold's picture

Not everyone is happy about the low prices. A Chinese guy leapt to his death from a tall building.

http://weibo.com/1432851721/zsBESvdr6

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 10:39 | 3460718 kliguy38
kliguy38's picture

he shouldn't have been playing paper gold.......

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 09:46 | 3460499 Dr Benway
Dr Benway's picture

Some Australians invest in gold, especially those with Chinese heritage. Most Aussies, however, have a subconscious atavistic urge toward criminality and dodgy schemes.

Check out my newly updated presentation on Australian share market manipulation:
http://s1144.photobucket.com/user/_DrBenway/library/The%20Great%20Austra...

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 09:51 | 3460527 midtowng
midtowng's picture

Who are those crazy people buying gold? Don't they know that you can't eat it (the only reason to own anything is if you can eat it, right? That's why people want dollars)

People need to just trust the maestros at the central banks. They can do no wrong.

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 10:14 | 3460629 RaceToTheBottom
RaceToTheBottom's picture

I would like to stuff some gold up the Maestro's ass.  Actually make that 200 OZ of Silver instead.  Size matters

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 14:13 | 3462216 Joe Sixpack
Joe Sixpack's picture

How about 400 ozt. gold plated tungsten bars (after scraping the gold off)?

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 10:05 | 3460583 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

Common sense would agree...

Common sense is not what everybody knows, it's what anyone would understand if it were explained to them.  So, on that basis, there is no common sense application here.   An explanation would go over the head of the average person.

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 09:04 | 3460286 eigenvalue
eigenvalue's picture

Well. I think we need some time to repair the damage done. It seems that $1500 & $26 will not be regained this month. 

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 09:31 | 3460413 GOSPLAN HERO
GOSPLAN HERO's picture

A Money History Moment - The Continental Dollar

"By the end of 1778, Continentals retained from 1/5 to 1/7 of their face value. By 1780, the bills were worth 1/40th of face value. Congress attempted to reform the currency by removing the old bills from circulation and issuing new ones, without success. By May 1781, Continentals had become so worthless that they ceased to circulate as money. Benjamin Franklin noted that the depreciation of the currency had, in effect, acted as a tax to pay for the war. In the 1790s, after the ratification of the United States Constitution, Continentals could be exchanged for treasury bonds at 1% of face value." - wikipedia

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 10:24 | 3460655 imaginalis
imaginalis's picture

Who was on the other side of that trade?

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 09:38 | 3460461 Handful of Dust
Handful of Dust's picture

Unconfirmed reports claim Charlie Munger was spotted in a gold coin shop buying kilos of the 'foolish' metal disguised with a womens wig and blue sheath Kohls dress and 3 inch heels.....

 

Unconfirmed....just rumors....to be updated as more news comes in.....

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 10:13 | 3460624 auric1234
auric1234's picture

Great. The lower it goes, the more we can buy before the whole thing crashes!

 

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 09:07 | 3460289 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

I bought 25% of all I could afford!

 

It's thoughtful to leave some for others.

 

Wish I could say the same about the ammo market.....it's dog eat dog over there.

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 09:15 | 3460341 kralizec
kralizec's picture

Hoarder eats hoarder...get what you can while you can as often as you can...of all of the above!

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 09:31 | 3460418 1000 splendid suns
1000 splendid suns's picture

The madness of crowds. Charles Mackay would be so proud.

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 09:58 | 3460476 Atlasshruggedme
Atlasshruggedme's picture

Its easy to double your money in the Ammo market.  Getting weapons is easy, but something to put in them... Good Luck. I am young, but I am glad I stocked up months before Nov 2012

 

I was just informed by a co-worker that 30 is not young anymore.

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 12:07 | 3461279 DCFusor
DCFusor's picture

I'm the happy owner of a Dillon RL-550b machine and a lot of dies, primers, brass, powder, and lead.  I don't notice this kind of shortage.

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 10:15 | 3460631 RobD
RobD's picture

They had to stand in line for 5 hours at the Big Reno Gun show for ammo last Friday. I'm all stocked up so I was just an observer. There was no lines for magazines though. There were plenty there but way overpriced and nobody was buying so I'm thinking we should see the price coming down for the mags soon.

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 11:10 | 3460880 rosiescenario
rosiescenario's picture

Even the off beat ammo is unobtainable....looked for some of the high end 22lr target ammo (made in Europe) which in the past was always easy to find and, guess what? Nada.

 

There appears to be a direct inverse correlation between the price of paper pm's and the price of ammo.

 

I wonder how, with the fullness of time, we will all look back upon these simple facts now in front of us.

 

 

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 09:50 | 3460512 midtowng
midtowng's picture

I managed to sell out a large part of my gold when the support at 1550 broke.

Now I'm waiting in cash for the rebound to confirm at 1400 to buy back in.

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 09:52 | 3460530 JP McManus
JP McManus's picture

physical gold, or paper gold?

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 10:12 | 3460617 Ignatius
Ignatius's picture

Paul Craig Robert's is pointing out that premiums on coins have risen more as a percentage than the smash on the price. 

http://www.paulcraigroberts.org/

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 11:22 | 3460982 rosiescenario
rosiescenario's picture

Very well stated...obviously grounded on the facts of the matter.

 

If the powers that be rigged LIBOR which affected trillions in contracted rates, then a bit of naked short selling in the pm's is pretty trivial...more like robbing a 7-11 than the Bank of England, if you will.

 

We know from the facts that the LIBOR rigging happened. We are still speculating about what we just saw on the COMEX. The facts will eventually come out and that will be the end of the COMEX.

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 13:03 | 3461654 Ignatius
Ignatius's picture

My small town local shop is sold out of silver bullion coins.

Gold coins are still available.

I expected and expect gold to do better due to its history as a CB reserve component, but Joe Six-Pack seems to be going for the more 'affordable' silver.  We'll see....

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 10:14 | 3460625 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

Trading gold is a fool's game.  You'll get your ass back on a platter sooner or later.  Sooner probably.

Anyhow, you have my best wishes.  We need all sorts active in what I hope are physical markets.  If you were trading paper... you get what's coming to you:  Nothing.

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 08:52 | 3460220 Bearwagon
Bearwagon's picture

Upvote for saying something with "bitchez" ....   ;-)

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 09:35 | 3460438 Rory_Breaker
Rory_Breaker's picture

Who is the bitch junking our battle cry?

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 10:38 | 3460720 Bearwagon
Bearwagon's picture

Probably just a bot ...

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 11:29 | 3461041 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

botchez?

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 12:03 | 3461267 Midas
Midas's picture

It might be the Central Scrutinizer.

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 09:16 | 3460338 dow2000
dow2000's picture

What if the size seller on Friday was actually China / Russia and not one of the bullion banks as many presume?  By smashing the price lower they actually accelerated the depletion of physical.  And the rub is they used Treasury's to fund it. Deserves a bit of game theory analysis...

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 10:00 | 3460490 Atlasshruggedme
Atlasshruggedme's picture

The way I see it... If someone did dump physical metals onto the market. You should be able to get silver/gold. With the articles of Whole sellers being sold out of everything nation wide, it really supports the idea that it was GLC/SLV (ETF) being sold. Which currently have nothing to back it up (as people suspect) 

 

I suppose someone could argue that the SLV and GLD work like banking. You only need 10% to back up your paper. EX: 100 oz of paper gold for the 10 oz of physical in the vault.

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 10:49 | 3460764 Crash Overide
Crash Overide's picture

Regardless this has got average folk around the world seeking PM's realizing it better to hold metal than paper, unless you have to wipe your ass.

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 12:28 | 3461405 Arius
Arius's picture

How about the FAT FINGER theory?

could be a mistake ... no?

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 09:33 | 3460428 asscannon101
asscannon101's picture

"Tungsten!Tungsten here!! Get yer Tungsten while its hot!"

Yeah, its not like a buying frenzy will accelerate fraud...

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 10:39 | 3460730 Vooter
Vooter's picture

So what are you going to do? Curl up into a ball and cry?

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 11:18 | 3460946 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

Don't laugh!  Smart ppl actually DO own Tungsten, at tungsten prices.  It's a commodity, like any other.  Why do you think Buffet -- who is a LOT smarter and richer than YOU -- has cornered that market?

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 09:41 | 3460469 freewolf7
freewolf7's picture

Would love some pictures of guys
staring out of their windows, thinking,
"F#ck.".

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 10:19 | 3460648 UH-60 Driver
UH-60 Driver's picture

So if I spend a significant portion of my expendable funds on purchasing gold, whilst reallocating a considerable portion of my personal savings account in PMs-and then store them at home next to my passports and pistols in the safe...will I "be" causing injury to the banking system?  How do we encourage others to do the same?

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 08:50 | 3460209 TeamDepends
TeamDepends's picture

Where da phyzz?  Aaaaaand it's gone!

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 09:19 | 3460358 azzhatter
azzhatter's picture

Aussies? I can picture Olivia Newton John singing "Let's get physical"

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 11:21 | 3460959 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

Sorry, sport, I used that line yesterday.  Got anything original? /s

"Let's get Original, Original, you wanna get Original..."

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 08:52 | 3460210 Theta_Burn
Theta_Burn's picture

If 2-billion ppl bought just 1 oz...

Fook it...or 3-4 ozs

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 08:56 | 3460242 Pegasus Muse
Pegasus Muse's picture

I did my part this week to support of the cause.

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 09:32 | 3460362 Paper CRUSHer
Paper CRUSHer's picture

Sometimes ya just have to accumulate,ignore all the technicals & the charts and listen to STAN BUSH "FIGHT TO SURVIVE"(BLOODSPORT SOUNDTRACK) during these rough-tough gold trading sessions.

My bodys ready, my hearts on fire
Im gonna push it over the wire
Perfect timing, tight as a drum, final battle's already won
Im taking hold of every moment
Given strength by the breath of life (breath of life)
Im gonna stake my claim
I FIGHT TO SURVIVE

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CECLVpXPH2A

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 08:52 | 3460216 SolidSnake961
SolidSnake961's picture

barbarions

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 09:22 | 3460375 Debtonation
Debtonation's picture

All your gold are belong to us!

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 08:54 | 3460222 MrBoompi
MrBoompi's picture

Try and buy physical silver for anywhere near the "spot" price today. I dare you.

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 09:06 | 3460295 holdbuysell
holdbuysell's picture

Junk silver premium at APMEX is $6.

Last Friday it was $3.80 in the morning and jumped to $5 by end of day.

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 09:30 | 3460395 LeisureSmith
LeisureSmith's picture

If you are a crafty big shot. Buy some shot and pour your own ingot's. I would if i could, but i can't. Only 0,59 - 1,19 over spot.

http://www.apmex.com/Product/43773/25_kilo_80375_oz_Bag_of_Penoles_Silve...

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 09:42 | 3460470 JP McManus
JP McManus's picture

Wow. My 1st junk silver purchase from APMEX was at a discount to spot.

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 10:07 | 3460592 Imminent Crucible
Imminent Crucible's picture

I thought APMEX was outrageous on silver eagles yesterday--most out of stock and what they did have was $8 OVER spot. Today they have even less, and the premium is NINE BUCKS over spot.

In other news, Rio Tinto is cutting copper production in the face of weak demand. And since silver is commonly a by-product of copper mining.......

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 10:30 | 3460686 quasimodo
quasimodo's picture

It's getting so bad they don't even put the "XXX over spot" blurb in most of the ASE's anymore. WOW

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 11:00 | 3460826 Troll Magnet
Troll Magnet's picture

oh come on...these dealers - apmex, gainesville, your local coin shops - are all yanking your chain. every time they sell gold and silver, they buy puts to make sure they won't incur any losses. don't fall for their used car sslesmen tactics. there's plenty of phyz available to buy at reasonable prices. you just have to look!

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 11:27 | 3461014 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

Getting the Deja Vu feeling?  Just like with the G+A panic, it's the supply chain middlemen who are making a killing/profit.  This will not trickle up to the miners anytime soon, to cause them to produce more.  Not at these prices, that are too close to their marginal costs and need for profit -- if their execs want to keep their jobs.

Apparently every crisis is an Opportunity for somebody.

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 09:50 | 3460510 El Diablo Rojo
El Diablo Rojo's picture

I did.  Northwest Territorial Mint.  Down side is it will be 10 weeks out.  I buy  there all the time. I just got my Feb. order.

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 09:52 | 3460531 azzhatter
azzhatter's picture

I pay a little more but I buy from apmex lately. Delivery is really quick. I'm an impatient bastard

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 10:25 | 3460664 Abiotic Oil
Abiotic Oil's picture

My first purchase many years ago was from NWT Mint. That delay will kill you with stress. They've got your cash and you have nothing for a couple of months. I will never buy from them again. I've been a Gainesvillecoins shopper for a long time, better prices than Amex.

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 10:39 | 3460729 High_on_Sarcotics
High_on_Sarcotics's picture

The shop where I buy my bullion is totally swamped with orders.

 

Physical silver 15-20% over spot MINIMUM.

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 11:04 | 3460846 Troll Magnet
Troll Magnet's picture

and those cocksuckers are buying puts as soon as you walk out the door. know how these metals dealers work and you won't ever fall for this, "they're running out!" or "they havs no phyz to sell" or "they're charging 15-20% premium! bullshit.

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 13:34 | 3461890 ActionFive
ActionFive's picture

Cuz they can get that for it .

You found a market.

You want eyes to stay on the Comex dial the fed sets.

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 08:53 | 3460224 danepol
danepol's picture

Desperately trying to jawbone up the gold price are ya? Won't happen, sorry.

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 08:56 | 3460232 TeamDepends
TeamDepends's picture

You a bettin' man?

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 09:01 | 3460263 TerminalDebt
TerminalDebt's picture

Yeah no point trying to get people here to buy more gold, they already spent all their money on gold at 1700/Oz

All the people with enough money to make the price change are over at the website that talks about how big banks are great.

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 09:00 | 3460257 ATM
ATM's picture

Patience. 

Money printing will not end because it cannot end.

Physical assets will be in high demand, including gold and probably especially gold as fiat paper meets it's inevitable end.

It is not different this time. It is the same and, in fact, worse.

 

 

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 09:23 | 3460376 BobPaulson
BobPaulson's picture

They are way more afriad of deflation that inflation. With inflation they will have an excuse to not pay China and the social security obligations mounting. Keep in mind they don't give a shit about individuals, so an inflation blow off is where they are steering us. That said, it's a bit like the Jesus mythologies: he's coming any day now, we just don't know when, and it's probably later than sooner.

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 12:42 | 3461521 Seer
Seer's picture

Inflation generally indicates surplus.  Deflation generally indicates deficiency.

Our beloved model of grow-or-die is severely challenged by deflation.  This should tend to make it pretty clear what people would prefer.  But there's that saying- "want in one hand, shit in another"...

BTW - Inflation WOULD allow China to be paid (with cheaper dollars/money); inflation tends to create MORE, thus cheaper, dollars/money.  Deflation has people scrambling to come up with dollars/money- any less-than-favored trade partner is not going to be seen as a priority...

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 11:08 | 3460864 DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

money printing will not end

but it will end a lot of things

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 11:27 | 3461027 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

They (Central Banks) can print a lot longer than 95% of ppl can stay liquid.  Hedge accordingly.

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 12:45 | 3461538 Seer
Seer's picture

True, but if people aren't liquid then the money-printers are just spinning their (print) wheels.  No velocity = death.

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 08:55 | 3460227 Smiley
Smiley's picture

Bullish traditional relic.

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 08:55 | 3460229 PUD
PUD's picture

The only reason one could make to own gold is the greater fool theory

gold is a metal...a mineral...a rock no different fundamentally than coal or quartz in that it has some fundamental utilitarian uses

gold has far fewer uses than aluminum or iron and of course it is more rare

but so far as value is concerned...nothing has any real value outside of its practical utilitarian use

further...in the pecking order of value, gold is way down the list. You need food, you need water, you need shelter and energy and clothing...you do not need gold

gold was once money. It is not money anymore. It is a metal

its price is not its value

price is a function of intrinsic value plus intangibles such as good will, desire, future expectation of demand etc

gold is priced as it is because stupid immoral people place a non existent value upon it. if it doesn't aid in your survival it has no real value despite its price

gold is filthy. It destroys vast amounts of land to procure. It enslaves people including children. It destroys habitats where real things come from like salmon..food

the price of gold only goes up because of greater fools who are deluded by the ancient history of the metal, the lie that it has some inherent precious value, that it protects against inflation etc

it is just a metal...good for filling teeth and coating satellites going to mars

it is not an "investment"...it's just one more casino game for immoral idiots

it sits by the ton in basements and vaults doing nothing except altering the deluded perceptions of the sheep who've been sold yet another pig in a poke

it will go to zero too

spam will go to 1500 an oz

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 08:57 | 3460244 kensdad
kensdad's picture

ROFLMAO

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 08:59 | 3460254 PUD
PUD's picture

Are you a greater fool?

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 09:00 | 3460260 kensdad
kensdad's picture

Now just shaking my head...

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 09:01 | 3460271 PUD
PUD's picture

I'll take that as a yes given that you offer no argument against my brilliant analysis 

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 09:05 | 3460296 gmrpeabody
gmrpeabody's picture

They don'y call you Pud for nothing...

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 09:10 | 3460312 krispkritter
krispkritter's picture

And here I thought he was just pullin' my...well, y'know...

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 09:27 | 3460388 gonetogalt
gonetogalt's picture

Pudwhacker....

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 09:22 | 3460374 H E D G E H O G
H E D G E H O G's picture

PUD = PURE UNADULTERATED DIPSHIT.

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 09:54 | 3460535 Croesus
Croesus's picture

@ PUD:

If gold has no utility or use, WHY ARE CENTRAL BANKS ACCUMULATING IT?

Why is JP Morgan's Gold Vault conveniently located right next-door to the NY Fed's Gold vault?

Why is it going to take 7 years for Germany to get a portion of its "useless Gold" back.

Look, forget the complicated theories, stick to the basics:

The World is run by Banksters. At the top of the Bankster pile sit the Central Banksters. The Central Banksters, for some "unknown reason" have decided that they need to have piles of a "useless yellow metal", even though it doesn't pay a dividend. Since the Central Banksters run the money (& the world), do you think maybe it'd be a good idea to "do what The People Who Rule The World do", or "do what ZH Reader PUD thinks is a good idea"?

 

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 10:46 | 3460734 Debugas
Debugas's picture

central banks accumulate gold because gold is becoming (replacing the dollar which Fed has over-abused)  the means of international settlement. A country running trade deficits will have to transfer its gold to the net exporter nations

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 10:54 | 3460781 Croesus
Croesus's picture

@ Debugas:+1,000

Exactly. Your statement completely shoots holes in the typical anti-gold arguments: "it has no value", "it is not money", etc.

Its value is derived from its global, cultural acceptance that transcends all national borders, races, creeds, and religions.

All people like Gold, or else they're probably lying.

 

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 10:26 | 3460665 jmcadg
jmcadg's picture

@ PUD. Please can you give me your analysis of silver.

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 10:31 | 3460679 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

PUD - Wow, brave of you to diss Gold here, you are like a Calico Cat that jumped into a yard of Bulldogs!

I disagree with your Gold thesis, but I'm curious as to what you think has value?

Are you in cash, equities, bonds?  What and why?

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 09:00 | 3460267 Pladizow
Pladizow's picture

Only a greater fool argues with a fool!

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 09:06 | 3460301 Thulsa Doom
Thulsa Doom's picture

Who's more foolish, the fool or the fool who follows him?

Followed by: gargling growl.

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 11:33 | 3460654 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

He came, he dumped, he failed.

I guess he gets paid by the post.  On to the next pro-gold site.   Sigh.....

There was no passion in his post, just an illiterate rant of gibberish.   He won't stay for serious rebuttal because there was no conviction in the comment.  If he stays it will be to refine some of the most inane concepts.  Dashed off some talking points only.

He just went into a church to rage against Jesus and run away.

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 09:04 | 3460272 Dick Buttkiss
Dick Buttkiss's picture

Right, and exchanging pieces of paper with pictures of dead presidents on them -- paper that, unlike gold, can be printed ad infinitum -- makes perfect sense.

Sorry, PUD, but gold is money, and paper's masquerade as such is coming to an end, the only question being when.

Meanwhile, the state can kiss my ass.

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 09:07 | 3460302 PUD
PUD's picture

Did I say anything about fiat? Did I? I thought not. Gold is not money. It was once it is not now. It is a commodity that wall st gambles on and that's about it.

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 09:25 | 3460381 Sean7k
Sean7k's picture

Gold is a tier one asset and provides collateral for all that "fiat" that is out there. The more gold a country holds, the greater strength its' "warehouse receipts" have. You wouldn't have paper money without gold. 

You could be more ignorant of finance and economics, but I'm not sure how.

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 09:35 | 3460432 aka Gil
aka Gil's picture

The ignorant PUD votes up his own comments. Bad form. BTW PUD/Bernanke, gold sure as hell is money.

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 09:35 | 3460435 Acet
Acet's picture

In a way you are right.

One of the biggest scams of the our age was to get most people to treat Gold as commodity to gamble on.

People were convinced that trading little pieces of paper representing gold was in fact the same as trading actual gold, to the point that the physical price of Gold was actually set by the price of markets that traded "promises to deliver gold" and where only 1 in every 100 of those promises actually resulted in any Gold getting delivered.

The thing is, somebody seems to have overplayed their hand. After the recent slamdown in the paper gold markets, what we are seeing is that the offer-demand balance in physical Gold is completelly different from that in the paper Gold markets: people are treating physical Gold as a store of wealth while ignoring paper gold.

These events look a lot like the beginning of the undoing of the whole scam of getting people to treat gold as a commodity.

 

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 09:54 | 3460545 centerline
centerline's picture

I agree.  The decoupling is going to be ugly as well.  There is alot of everything that has commoditized in motion via traders, funds, governments, etc.  Hence, the "real" value of PMs might be highly variable.

By no means am I against PMs.  I still regard them as a hedge against the insanity of governments.  I am just not marrying up to any given outcome.  I could see our future playing out so many different ways.

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 12:49 | 3461557 Seer
Seer's picture

"One of the biggest scams of the our age was to get most people to treat Gold as commodity to gamble on.

People were convinced that trading little pieces of paper representing gold was in fact the same as trading actual gold"

You can substitute "gold" with just about anything in order to see the basic equation that we've been operating with.

Just what part of "paperless society" did we NOT get? </sarc>

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 09:01 | 3460274 Skin666
Skin666's picture

Yes, fuck the barbarous relic!

Let's stick with paper!

/sarc

PS You're a dickhead

 

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 09:06 | 3460292 PUD
PUD's picture

that was a brilliant reply! bravo! did I say anything about fiat? Did I? I thought not.

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 09:11 | 3460315 Thulsa Doom
Thulsa Doom's picture

No, you're saying stock up on spam. "Don't knock it. It's got its own key."

But people will have to trade something for the spam. There will be some means of exchange. I'm sure it will just be more spam.

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 09:54 | 3460544 El Diablo Rojo
El Diablo Rojo's picture

But I don't like SPAM!

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 09:14 | 3460330 Kaiser Sousa
Kaiser Sousa's picture

i normally dont engage people who dont have a fucking clue here but its becoming increasingly difficult...

do yourself a favor Mr. Brilliant...

go to the following link and place  $1 and the year you were born  and tell us all the figure...

then put the same $1 with the year 1971....

then 1914....

we're waiting.........http://www.usinflationcalculator.com/ 

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 11:12 | 3460887 pine_marten
pine_marten's picture

The inflation angle is interesting.  In the mid eighteen hundreds a silver dollar would get you a room, a hot meal, a hooker and a bottle of whiskey.  That's about $200 today.  So even pm's have not kept up with inflation over the long haul.  I would rather have a small working rural farm than a pile of pm's.

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 13:06 | 3461681 Seer
Seer's picture

"I would rather have a small working rural farm than a pile of pm's."

I DO have a small rural working farm... the key word is "working."  A "pile of PMs" is, just as any PILE (well, compost piles have work happening IN them), is just inactive.

If by now you don't have a PLAN of putting PILES to work then you're likely never going to get one (a plan).  If it's speculation then it's only really subjugated to the real fundamentals that are Food, Shelter and Water- if you don't have THESE covered then the PILES could be more of a hindrance than help (spend too much time distracted on when is the "right" time to "sell/trade").

If my aim was to pick up property for the cheapest I could have waited longer.  However, to me, TIME is the most important thing (you cannot get more of it); and, you could end up with cheap property only to be facing everything else being expensive (such as energy).  For me it was a bit easier because I'm older: waiting much longer I wouldn't likely have been able to physically do the things I've done.

Think ACTION.  Make things work as well as you can.

"even pm's have not kept up with inflation over the long haul. "

There's physical/natural scarcity, it's one of those things that most people fail to factor in (while they use scarcity to describe pricing they tend to miss out that there's a point in which scarcity makes something not-traded [from Dr. Albert Bartlett's presentation Arithmetic, Population and Energy there's a cartoon with the caption "Excuse me sir, I'm willing to make you quite an lucrative offer for your square." - it's a comment on the ability to populate every square foot of available land- at some point who the hell is going to sell the square that they're on, knowing that there is no other square available?]).  Land, they're just not making any more of it these days...

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 09:07 | 3460304 Bearwagon
Bearwagon's picture

I'll offer an argument against your analysis: It is NOT the gold, sitting in basements and vaults, that is altering the perceptions of the sheeple. Think about that for a moment ....

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 09:07 | 3460307 centerline
centerline's picture

Just wanted to point out that it is about the journey - not the destination.  Getting from where we are today to the $1500/spam moment will probably involve all sorts of funky shit.

At some point cash (USD) will probably be king.  Then PM's will have their moment in the sun... maybe brief.  Then it will be things that have real value which directly correlate to survival.  Likewise, some sort of black market/barter system would bound to evolve - and a medium of exhange will be neccessary.  None of us know how this will play out.  So, best advice would be diversification.

Plus, every step of the way there will be "believers."

 

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 09:10 | 3460316 PUD
PUD's picture

I agree

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 09:15 | 3460340 centerline
centerline's picture

I think PMs have some more downside here to come.  Gonna really make goldbugs cry.

I use the term goldbugs in the sense of someone who thinks somehow fiat will go "poof" and anyone who is sitting on a pile of gold will be living large like a rock star.

The system is terminal (ponzi) and this time it is global.  There is no good solution that washes away all the lies.

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 10:07 | 3460589 Croesus
Croesus's picture

@ Centerline:

Gold is going to go down more....but it's "IOU Gold Paper", measured in "IOU Money", and irrelevant. Once the last deliverable ounce disappears, things will get really interesting.

I'm hoping the "price" does go down more, a lot more.

At $10,000/oz. will most people in the world even be able to afford it? No, but at $850, physical supply vanishes in an instant, and mines are not very profitable.  

There are 180,000 tons of Gold, potentially available. The "price" needs to reflect "what it takes" to bring that physical Gold to the market. The supply is disappearing into strong hands, and the amount of physical that the paper market needs to keep the charade going is getting harder to find.

 

 

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 10:25 | 3460662 centerline
centerline's picture

+1.  When the ponzi really starts imploding, it will get very interesting.  I do think there will be a mad scramble and prices for physical could skyrocket while paper goes to crap.

But, it is also possible that governments could go apeshit and make things really rough on anyone who tries to buy or use PMs outside of underground economies.  In fact, I expect all sorts of nasty shit to happen.  Desperate governments are likely turn on thier own people.  

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 10:48 | 3460755 Croesus
Croesus's picture

@ Centerline:

The mad scramble is getting underway! 

If you haven't yet seen it, check this out:

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2013/4/15_Ma...

Also, that piece ties in with this one, in that Gold's VIX term structure implies that something major has occurred:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-04-15/golds-vix-term-structure-most-i...

And lastly, both of the above pieces tie in with this:

http://www.alhambrapartners.com/2013/04/15/we-have-seen-gold-prices-act-...

(H/t to another ZH reader for the last link)

It's going to be a very interesting couple of years.

 

 

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 09:32 | 3460417 Sean7k
Sean7k's picture

I suggest you read up on the journey of the people of the Weimar republic. Ignorance of available history is a sorry excuse. The possibility of collapse is more remote than 100,000 an oz gold. There will always be food produced as long as farmers can derive value.

Survivalists are delusional. All societies have investments and ours are too invested to allow complete chaos. People will make choices and those choices will lead to a reconstruction, not deconstruction. 

More important, sources of real capital will be essential when fiat fails and gold will provide the collateral to create real capital.

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 09:50 | 3460484 centerline
centerline's picture

http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/02/24/the-untold-truth-about-the-germ...

http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/02/24/the-world-is-going-nuts-gold-ma...

 

I won't claim to be a great student of history.  But, Armstrong is.  Reasonable points made in his analysis.  Worth reading.

Delusion is not looking at the bigger picture here.  Social complexity is off the charts.  There are more people dependant on the system than those who support the system.  Etc.  Perpetual growth is cooked, and the financial systems that keep the supply chains operating are based on perpetual growth.   I won't even get into the subjects of food production, potable water, energy and shift global demand.  All said, we are heading for something larger than a Wiemar event.

People don't make choices.  They choose not to decide.  (I know, it is still a choice - Rush lyrics in my head now - lol).  Change is thrust upon them.  You and I and others here are unique in that we don't fit the mold of average person in this regard.

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 13:25 | 3461819 Sean7k
Sean7k's picture

Obviously Armstrong isn't either. How do you make any assessment that ignores the effects of the Treaty of Versaille? The french takeover of the Ruhr? The corporate use of foreign currency and gold, kept out of country, for local production of gods and services? 

Be a student of history and you won't be fooled by the Armstrongs of this world.

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 10:30 | 3460692 Croesus
Croesus's picture

@ Sean7K:

There are a few major differences between Weimar Germany and the current times:

1. We have a huge population on some form of substance dependency, who are moody and unpredictable. 

2. We have a culturally-diverse population, largely made up of people who blame other "groups" for their problems.

3. In the Weimar era, people tended to be more geared towards self-reliance than they are today. 

 

These are just a few comparisons. Do I think "Mad Max" is coming? No, absolutely not. I can however, see a hyperinflationary event taking place, but it would be short-lived, and quite violent.

DotGov would declare martial law, but most of their enforcement efforts would take place in the cities. Why cities? Because most cities do not have localized food production. Most of their supplies are brought in on a daily basis, and most grocery stores only have a few days worth of food on hand. A supply-chain breakdown, coupled with a large, culturally-diverse population = problems.

As evidence for my case, I submit the LA Riots (which took place because the cops beat up a black guy), and Hurricane Katrina. Large crowds of people behave dangerously under these circumstances, and yet you would expect them to be civil if they had no food to eat?

Civilization is a thin disguise.

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