This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.

Goldman Throws In The Towel On A 2013 "Recovery" As Does Bank Of America

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Back in 2010, Goldman's Jan Hatzius, fresh on the heels of QE2, committed rookie Economist mistake 101, and mistook a centrally-planned market response to what then was a record liquidity infusion, for an improvement in the economy (a move we appropriately mocked at the time, as it was quite clear that the Fed's intervention meant the economy was getting worse not better). It took him about 4 months to realize the folly of his ways and realize no recovery for the US or anyone else was on the horizon. He then wised up for a couple of years until some time in December he did the very same mistake again, and once again jumped the shark, forecasting an improvement to the US economy in 2013, albeit in the second half (after all nobody want to predict an improvement in the immediate future: they will be proven wrong very soon) based on consumer strength when in reality the only "reaction function" was that of the market to the Fed's QE4 (or is it 5, and does it even matter any more?). Four months later we get this...

A Consumption Setback

 

Coming into this year, we expected a notable slowdown in real personal consumption expenditures (PCE) from around 2% in 2012 to a 1% (annualized) pace in the first quarter of 2013. The main reason was the hit to disposable income resulting from the 2-point increase in payroll taxes that took effect in January. Based on our statistical analysis of the effects of past shocks to disposable income, we thought that the tax increase would deliver a sizable, front-loaded hit to spending. Such a front-loaded hit also seemed plausible intuitively. After all, lower- and middle-income consumers--many of whom seem to spend their income on a pay-as-you-go basis and should therefore respond quickly to a shock--saw a reduction in their disposable income of up to 2%.

 

This forecast was too pessimistic. Our current estimate is that real PCE grew 2-1/2% (annualized) in the first quarter, which would be the strongest quarter in two years. While this estimate is based on incomplete data for March and the January/February data are subject to revision, the basic thrust is unlikely to change at this point in the quarter. We have therefore been wondering whether we have already moved "over the hump" of fiscal contraction, at least as far as the consumer is concerned.

 

But the recent data suggest that the answer is no:

 

1. Weaker tracking. The March retail sales report showed a drop in "core" sales (excluding autos, building materials, and gasoline) to a level below the first-quarter average. If core retail spending through the quarter (that is, June vs. March) grows at the 2% pace seen over the prior year, quarterly average growth in core spending as well as real PCE (that is, the Q2 average vs. the Q1 average) could be as low as 1%. Admittedly, the retail sales data can be noisy and the weak March reading might have been influenced by seasonal adjustment distortions related to the timing of Easter and/or the relatively poor weather. But we do need a significant rebound in the pace of growth over the next few months to avoid a meaningful deceleration in Q2.

 

2. Weaker confidence. The weaker data are not confined to the retail sales release. Consumer sentiment according to the University of Michigan also took a dive in early April. To be sure, the preliminary Michigan reading is based on a small sample of households and other surveys such as the daily Rasmussen Reports series do not show a meaningful decline. But we would put a bit of weight on the Michigan reading given its relatively good historical performance as a coincident indicator of spending.

 

3. Lower saving rate. According to the February personal income and spending release, the personal saving rate currently stands at 2.6%. Except for the January 2013 reading, which was artificially depressed by tax-related income shifting between 2012 and 2013, this is the lowest number since late 2007. As shown in Exhibit 1, it is nearly 1 percentage point below our estimated equilibrium, which is based on a model using household wealth, bank lending standards, and labor market conditions. If this model is correct, we might see upward pressure on saving and correspondingly weaker growth in spending over the next couple of quarters.

 

Exhibit 1: Savings Rate Below Equilibrium

In our view, the most plausible interpretation of the weaker data is a delayed negative impact from the tax hike. Although we find a front-loaded impact more intuitive given the concentration of the hit among pay-as-you-go consumers, some of the models we estimated--specifically those using the Romer-Romer measure of tax shocks--do show a significant amount of back-loading. The low saving rate also points in that direction.

 

Assuming that much of the impact of the tax hike really is indeed still "in the pipeline," we could see a period of weakness in consumer spending. One way to get a sense of this is to assume that the gap between the personal saving rate and our estimate of the equilibrium rate will gradually disappear over the next 6-9 months. This would mean that the saving rate would need to rise by an average of 0.1 point per month, which would mechanically subtract 1.2 percentage points from annualized consumption growth. If real income grows 2-1/2%, this would mean real consumption growth of 1% to 1-1/2%. Combined with the likely weakness in federal spending, slow consumption growth would make it difficult for real GDP to grow much more than 2%, even if homebuilding and business investment continue to grow at healthy rates, as we expect. This reinforces our view that GDP growth in 2013 will still be relatively sluggish, with only a modest pickup late in the year.

 

However, we still think that 2014 should look significantly better....

And if 2014 doesn't work (as 2011 didn't work, nor 2012, and now 2013), there is always 2015... and then 2016... and then 2017... of course by then the world will be on QE 293834?

But fear not Jan: you are not the only one throwing in the towel: Bank of America is right there too. From Hans Mikkselsen (who still has to throw in the towel on his own incorrect Great Rotation call which he regurgitates like clockwork every single year since he replaced Jeff Rosenberg... incorrectly).

We continue to side with the weakening macro backdrop and retain our tactical (short-term) short positioning in investment grade credit.

 

Perhaps stocks and credit are holding up on the perception that US and Japanese QE will push investors into US risk assets regardless of fundamental weakness – in other words, that strong technicals will overcome weak fundamentals. That appears uncharted territory, as what we have seen in the  past is that QE can work to push investors into risk assets when perceived to boost economic activity and thus create inflation. We have little evidence that QE alone can do the job, without being perceived to improve fundamentals. Thus, again, we expect the weakening macro backdrop to prevail...

 

Perhaps the US economy is strong enough to overcome the recent adversities. This argument is close to our view and consistent with consensus expecting a rebound in the economy in the second half of the year. However, the current slowdown in the economy is clearly worse than expected at this stage... Moreover, on top of surprising domestic weakness we are faced with a number of important external risks such as those emanating from North Korea and Europe. Thus if stocks and credit are counting on the economy to pull through the near-term challenges they must believe strongly in an underlying more independent source of growth – such as the housing market recovery.

 

- advertisements -

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Wed, 04/17/2013 - 11:13 | 3460905 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

I enjoy the opinion of GS and BoA slightly less than to listen to white noise.

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 11:17 | 3460922 kliguy38
kliguy38's picture

Who do you think is giving the Whitehouse their orders......same masters.......Banksters had to pull gold's pants down before they unplugged their equity suckers...........buy physical and just say thankyou for the gift

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 11:23 | 3460990 tsx500
tsx500's picture

this should be good for a rally back to unch today !

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 11:33 | 3461065 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

Is it my imagination or does the forecase LAG the actual?

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 11:46 | 3461145 toys for tits
toys for tits's picture

Only one bank left to realize this and then the shitstorm can begin.

 

 

Hint; The Fed.

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 12:26 | 3461391 cifo
cifo's picture

Goldman never throws their own towel.

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 12:51 | 3461567 PKF
PKF's picture

Jan and Hans are living in their little cushy world up in a highrise enshrouded in billowy clouds...one in NYC and I suppose the other to be in Charlotte. 

These 2 asshats need to get out more and deal with the REAL people living and not working in the Heartland. 

The Real World sucks.  No one is making a decent living.  Everyone is rude and crude.  The 'Have a Nice Day' that many folks used to hear is OVER.

Our Economy is OVER. 

Wake the f*ck up Jan and Hans.  If only I could be paid the salary of these 2 jerks.  They are paid to be lie.  They probably are telecommuting from Argentina...f*cking turds.  Hope they end up having to eat their $$$ for lunch.

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 11:15 | 3460907 azzhatter
azzhatter's picture

These pricks change their forecast daily. Not even worth following anymore

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 11:18 | 3460926 Translational Lift
Translational Lift's picture

And these aholes get six figures for this BS.............

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 11:25 | 3461001 Rip van Wrinkle
Rip van Wrinkle's picture

Six???? F*cking SIX?????

 

I wouldn't bother for Sixes. Now for Seven's and Eight's I can dream up any sh!t you want.

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 12:25 | 3461383 lunaticfringe
lunaticfringe's picture

My forecast. It will get much worse before it gets better. I will settle our account for a juicebox.

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 11:14 | 3460908 bdc63
bdc63's picture

QE4EVER

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 11:15 | 3460910 SDRII
SDRII's picture

Bullard setting the table for the annual Humphrey Hawkins  and or  Jackson Hole Qe/stimulus talk up..Says would favor more purchases

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 11:15 | 3460911 achmachat
achmachat's picture

what took them so long?

were they waiting for new shipments of Spider Man beach towels?

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 11:14 | 3460915 TideFighter
TideFighter's picture

QE and Margaret Thatcher laid to rest today?

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 11:16 | 3460918 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

DAMN!! AND JUST WHEN EVERYTHING WAS GOING SO WELL......

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 11:19 | 3460943 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

GREEN SHOOTS!!1eleventyone11

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 11:18 | 3460924 Stoploss
Stoploss's picture

Deflation is one tough son of a bitch isn't it??

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 11:17 | 3460927 Zola
Zola's picture

It doesnt matter , he gets paid hundreds of thousands for utter rubbish. He is laughing all the way to the bank. I've so had it with these crooks.

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 11:17 | 3460932 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

that savings rate... is that with a factor of 10?

otherwise... that's not really that good :)

but on the other hand... buying gold and silver bullion isn't looked at as "saving" either

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 11:54 | 3461205 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

which is funny, then actually putting money on a bank is "lending" and keeping fiat money is a form of "lending", too (to the issuer of the IOU). and so buying monetary metals is actually the only form of pure saving

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 11:20 | 3460936 Cursive
Cursive's picture

Now?  Too late, Jan....

 

ETA:  In 2009, Lacksman Achuthan (ECRI) said the economy would rebound.  I doubted him, but he was "right" (if only in that he could see the effects of the liquidity injection).  Last year, Lacksman called this dip and has held firm.  Maybe ZH could juxtapose some of ECRI's analysis against GS.

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 11:18 | 3460939 ekm
ekm's picture

Of course. Now that they have unloaded their losses to the muppets, they can do that.

 

Anybody noticed the bullshit crude oil storage data from EIA? Presumably stocks went......lower by 1.2 million barrels, but the price of crude oil went...........LOWEEEEEEEEEER.

 

Anybody believes what bullshit crude oil storage data EIA publish now?

 

Conclusion: Unless oil goes to normal price of $40-50/barrel, there aint' recovery. PERIOD.

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 11:22 | 3460985 1eyedman
1eyedman's picture

and at 50/bbl there goes that new job creating area of america, north dakota.

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 11:26 | 3461006 ekm
ekm's picture

Incorrect.

Prices controls costs, not vice versa.

 

At $50, everything will be cheaper, hence salaries do not need to be increased, actually they can be reduced because money will have bigger purchasing power.

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 11:42 | 3461116 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

"Input prices control costs (output prices)" -  Fixed.  In the short term this is true, long term it is all about the Energy returned on energy invested (ERoEI).  Measured in Joules or Calories, not some bullshit monetary unit or eCONomic fantasy or "mark to unicorn" accounting.

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 11:30 | 3461038 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

Bakken is hugely overstated as a productive resource anyway.

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 11:33 | 3461073 otto skorzeny
otto skorzeny's picture

not if you're the WH or their MSM puppets

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 11:52 | 3461180 Liquid Courage
Liquid Courage's picture

Correct ... hellacious depletion rates etc ... Many of you may be aware of this, but a really easy "yardstick" number to keep in mind when some clueless reporter (or not-so-clueless shill) is tossing around numbers in the billions of barrels range in describing "huge" new oil finds:

@ a global consumption rate of 84 million barrels per DAY, it takes 1,000,000,000 / 84,000,000 = 1,000 / 84 = 12 DAYS to burn through a billion barrels.

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 15:30 | 3462711 bagehot99
bagehot99's picture

Well, yes. But Bakken doesn't satisfy the entirety of global demand, or anything like it. Only liberals think in those terms.

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 11:46 | 3461140 Bicycle Repairman
Bicycle Repairman's picture

No, no, no.  The market is moved by demand and peak oil.

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 11:37 | 3461094 akarc
akarc's picture

"Anybody noticed the bullshit crude oil storage data from EIA? Presumably stocks went......lower by 1.2 million barrels, but the price of crude oil went...........LOWEEEEEEEEEER."

Bullshit yes. DTO hiccuped. There is a price at which fractured wells become expensive. when that happens the supply of oil will drop. YOu can't sell what ain't being used.

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 11:18 | 3460944 Inthemix96
Inthemix96's picture

Goldman sacks,

Go fuck yourself twice, I dont give a fuck what bollocks you want to spout, I dont fucking believe a word you criminals say.  But I will wave a little flag on a stick when you fuckers are hanging from trees.

Cunts

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 11:19 | 3460955 akarc
akarc's picture

""Thus if stocks and credit are counting on the economy to pull through the near-term challenges they must believe strongly in an underlying more independent source of growth – such as the housing market recovery."

I did have a friend buy a doublewide. Does that count?

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 11:35 | 3461084 otto skorzeny
otto skorzeny's picture

he's smart if he stuck it out in the middle of nowhere w/ no RE taxes to pay

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 11:21 | 3460969 1eyedman
1eyedman's picture

its amazing these people get paid so much to state the obvious.

now cue the asian fellow from jpm who folded the other day please...

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 11:23 | 3460988 cowdiddly
cowdiddly's picture

Well you know what they say, sell in May and go away holds true for the unicorn and skittles "recovery" for the fifth year, if you can still refer to it as a recovery after five long years.(damn that perception management is awesome). But,I am sure that 85 billion a month that goes directly to the banks will pull out the American consumer who has been decimated and gets to buy an $8000 Obamacare policy and his hours reduced to 29 hours a week in eight short months is just dying to buy a new house and car.

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 11:25 | 3460992 1eyedman
1eyedman's picture

a consumption setback.....consumer confidence declining for months off soft levels already is THE indicator for consumption.  

 

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 11:25 | 3460995 orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

Dow Jones weekly - cycle wave c down appears under way.

 

http://bullandbearmash.com/chart/dow-jones-weekly-closes-300-points-econ...

 

We are likely headed below March 2009 lows.

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 11:39 | 3461105 1eyedman
1eyedman's picture

555 would confirm aliens amongst us

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 11:50 | 3461178 WTF_247
WTF_247's picture

I wish.

We have not even hit the low from the prior selloff this month yet.  We touched the low from the other day.  

All they have done is take out the 50pts they ramped the market last week.  Its still where it was at the beginning of April.

A likely target on this push down (assuming the tide has turned) is the low from Feb - around 1490 area.

 

The real selling has not started yet - this is just a reaction in the futures.  When I see stocks down when ES is flat to up 2-3 I will believe we are in correction mode.  For the last 6+ months that has meant most stocks up.

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 11:29 | 3461030 williambanzai7
williambanzai7's picture

What a waste of valuable screen pixels.

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 11:28 | 3461032 Edward Fiatski
Edward Fiatski's picture

Now you tell me. But... but... what about the stawks I bought at 1593..?

HALP!

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 11:33 | 3461061 venturen
venturen's picture

Let's look at banker's personal wealth and see wehre the money went. What have the lobbyist gotten for the likes of BlackRock and Goldman? The biggest bait and switch in history. Hank Paulson with assistance from Geithner and Bernanke are responsible for the biggest wealth transfer in the history of the World! Criminals all 3!

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 11:36 | 3461089 Downtoolong
Downtoolong's picture

He's got a bullish report in the can to be released on the next up-market day, and one titled "Gold Probably Oversold" which he'll be releasing as soon as they acquire all of Cyprus's holdings.  

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 11:38 | 3461090 RichardENixon
RichardENixon's picture

Damn, now what am I going to do with all those "Recovery Summer" beachtowels and baseball caps

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 11:43 | 3461126 hswalj
hswalj's picture

Paging Gary Shilling, your plane is ready for departure to the Great Disconnect.

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 11:46 | 3461146 youngman
youngman's picture

It amazes me how stocks are at all time highs...but business is low to middleing.....go figure....this is just easy money chasing returns....at some point they will catch it ..and then the chase stops...and reality sets in....but then the Fed will announce an ABE...buy anything they want...real estate...stocks..whatever...its all good then....but they will ALWAYS try to keep PM´s down...its their biggest enemy.....the destroyer of fiat..

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 11:46 | 3461149 WTF_247
WTF_247's picture

Amazing how they change on a dime.

3 days ago it was ramp ramp ramp - SP500 every day.  Growth til the cows come home.  Bad news?  Naw - discount that.  Its gonna be better later on this year.  Get in now.

All a sudden the tide turns - what has shifted in 3 days?  What news has come out to change their mind?

Answer - nothing.  Odds are they flipped from long to short and now they turn the tables to help themselves profit.

What a bunch of ass clowns.

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 11:50 | 3461176 dirtbagger
dirtbagger's picture

Anecdotal Only -  The building where we lease has 40 units at about 1800 square feet - call it an industrial condo.   Three years ago there were about 15 units rented, the rest vacant.  Currently nearly 30 units are rented,  many in the last 3-4 months.   It may be misplaced, but there does seem to be more economic optimism going forward in our area.

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 11:57 | 3461219 1eyedman
1eyedman's picture

and you are in an energy-dependent area?

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 12:01 | 3461248 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Electronic paper-shuffling requires little energy, just ask the bernanke.  Now as far as actually producing anything of real fucking value, well, that's another story...

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 13:35 | 3461908 dirtbagger
dirtbagger's picture

Nevada (So. CA refugee), a state which still has some of the worst economic statistics in the US.   Can't give any theories why occupation is increasing.  Businesses downsizing? More optimism?  Perhaps owners can't get jobs elsewhere and have decided to start a business.   Larger buildings 5000 + sq feet are still mostly vacant, so few businesses are expanding. It is likely that most of the leases are for incubating a new enterprise. Our sales have doubled in the last 18 months, but we sell throughout the US and Canada.  My best guess is that about one-half of our sales increase has been due to our investment in branding/advertising over the last 3 years and the balance due to a slowly improving economy (particularly housing).   

Last month I drove from San Antonio to our fabricator in Monterrey.  The area just North of Laredo is exploding with oil activity from fracking of the Eagle-Ford formation.  New construction everywhere, drilling rigs adjacent to the freeway, and hundreds of oil supply trucks on the road.  They are begging for workers, but in many cases it means camp living.   California has one of the largest probable oil reserves in the US in the Monterey Shale.  If CA had any sense, they would increase the development of this reserve (estimates up to 5 billion barrels).

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 12:08 | 3461287 1eyedman
1eyedman's picture

oil/gas producing area.   dallas or ks city perhaps?

 

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 11:53 | 3461193 falak pema
falak pema's picture

go to sleep till 2015...say the CB.

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 11:56 | 3461212 1eyedman
1eyedman's picture

the GMO (Grantham et al) had a nice piece out recently about how farm land is up like 50% over the past couple years and also another about the source of hyperinflation being a supply shock to gdp, countered with money printing.

if land cost a lot now (to service the debt) and ag prices are very very low again, might they pull back on production (perhaps next year really) either via bankruptcies or letting fields lie fallow; causing a supply disruption and dramatic price surge in ag?    

when the financial sector once at 22% of US gdp collapsed to now like 16%, wouldnt that be considered a supply shock to gdp?  now papered over with fed monetization?

post WW1 there was a huge supply shock in the West.  mix in some new tech, and the fed system made way for the 20's.  farmers were in major distress prior to the 29 crash due to the dust storms (its been a little hot the past few years hasnt it?).   mkts crash, dead cat bounce into 1937, when politicians werent happy we didnt get back to the roaring 20's dismantle stimulus make work projects.   second crash gives rise to radical leadership(s).   

so i'd say were about 1937, with another ag issue comingup in the next 24 months...prices and perceived scarcity blamed on china(?) cold war ensues.   is the US stopped being the policeman, imagine the arms it could sell to all who needed defense.  major buildup, major conflicts, resolution circa 2020. 

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 11:58 | 3461236 optionsman
optionsman's picture

he caters to real money. his careful choice of words eg tactical short in investment grade will not move real money to reduce their overweight in investment grade and yet his ass is covered.

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 12:00 | 3461240 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

Now that they have all the muppet and government gold, no reason not to pull the plug.

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 12:07 | 3461288 bentaxle
bentaxle's picture

Next up. Bankers claim they are no longer living in denial. Bullish!

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 12:09 | 3461297 Ban KKiller
Ban KKiller's picture

"we could see a period of weakness in consumer spending."    COULD? 

WILL and ARE. 

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 12:10 | 3461300 Debt Slave
Debt Slave's picture

Why save Federal Reserve Accounting Unit DollarS when you can stack instead?

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 12:11 | 3461303 IamtheREALmario
IamtheREALmario's picture

If hey were at all serious about anything other than causing as much trouble for this country and its people as they can they would re-instate the rule of law, stop the empire building and re-instate Glass-Steagall.

But clearly based solely on their actions they have no intention of doing anything positive or good. Their actions say "we are taking you down and there is nothing you can do about it because we have all of the power"

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 12:13 | 3461319 paddy0761
paddy0761's picture

APPL at $401, Benny is gonna have to blow his wad on holding a 4 handle.

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 12:15 | 3461328 Ned Zeppelin
Ned Zeppelin's picture

The house market is recovering but only to a New (Low) Normal.  Not enough to drive the growth these guys are predicting and looking for.  Last time they tried to ramp up with the housing market, once they finished with all of the prime borrowers, they dug deep into subprime and junk, which led straight to the debacle of 2008.  That is not in the cards this time if only due to buyer credit restraints that are still a problem for homebuilders looking to ramp up. Add to that the simple fact that the developers of lots are challenged to find sources of financing, lenghthy zoning and approvals processes in places like the Northeast US, and you have a recipe for some, but ultimately restrained growth in housing. We've seen the drivers of Dot.Com and Housing both bite the dust, and these one trick pony guys do not have anything up their sleeve.  Growth will not come easy this time, as the growth achieved by leverage has been all but maxed out.  Time to roll up sleeves and create wealth the old-fashioned way - by working for it. 

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 12:37 | 3461476 marathonman
marathonman's picture

Nobody in power currently believes a word of what you concluded.  They will keep the US dollar Ponzi alive at all costs.  It keeps the productive laboring to get more, the other sheeple pacified, and allows them to skim billions for themselves.  Creating wealth - by working for it - is not in the BHO lexicon.

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 12:34 | 3461459 rsnoble
rsnoble's picture

Must be time to shake out a few hands and then another huge rally.

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 12:36 | 3461478 resurger
resurger's picture

The Trend is 1 day negative , one day postive through out 2013

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 12:38 | 3461481 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

Guess they couldn't wait long enough for calpers to buy it all up at the top.

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 12:52 | 3461582 Overflow-admin
Overflow-admin's picture

QE ad nauseam, bitchez.

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 13:33 | 3461889 Billy Shears
Billy Shears's picture

Hey, that kind of analysis deserves a bonus.

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 13:44 | 3461963 MFLTucson
MFLTucson's picture

all you needed to do was look at the election 2012 and you knew whether or not it was going to be recovery

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 13:46 | 3461981 MFLTucson
MFLTucson's picture

Ben Bernanke should be put in prison now for lying to the American people and Congress about a recovery. 

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 14:30 | 3462346 MedicalQuack
MedicalQuack's picture

Jon Stewart does a good job with the "moocher class" funny but makes his point and it's the models Goldman and B of A uses coming back to bite a little.  No sorrow here to hear that B of A is over their heads in legal fees.  You write a dirty model and use it and one day it comes back. 

http://ducknetweb.blogspot.com/2013/04/the-moocher-classjon-stewart-expl...

The moocher class, created by the "rich mooching data modelers" out there.  Jamie Dimon yet one more example who used thier quants for code.  Quants now have their code of ethics to where they don't be responsible for writing dirty or lying models any more eihter.  The big data scientists code of ethics...

http://ducknetweb.blogspot.com/2013/03/big-datathe-data-science-code-of-...

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!