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Guest Post: More Evidence That The Economic Peak Is In

Tyler Durden's picture


Submitted by Lance Roberts of Street Talk Live,


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Wed, 04/17/2013 - 22:09 | 3464580 Dr. Engali
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The economic peak happened in the late 60s. From the early 70s on we just borrowed it from the future.

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 22:23 | 3464651 otto skorzeny
otto skorzeny's picture

that was right about the time LBJ's "Great Society" got revved up

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 23:08 | 3464879 BKbroiler
BKbroiler's picture

that was right about the time LBJ's "Great Society" got revved up

revisionist history at its best.  actually, it's when the tax rates on the top 1% got cut in half.  maybe that had something to do with it.  

Thu, 04/18/2013 - 00:41 | 3465093 W T Effington
W T Effington's picture

How would the government stealing less hurt the economy exactly?

Thu, 04/18/2013 - 02:55 | 3465289 AldousHuxley
AldousHuxley's picture

most of money, land, resources are already owned by governments. They just lease it to you, so they are not stealing, they are calling their assets back.

yeah, that house you "own" still pay real estate tax to government.

Sun, 04/21/2013 - 23:22 | 3482478 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

Such vicious, vile, atrocious unfalsehoods!

double plus ungood!

Thu, 04/18/2013 - 00:47 | 3465112 Missiondweller
Missiondweller's picture

Because low tax rates kill business activity?

Only in Soviet economics books.

Thu, 04/18/2013 - 02:10 | 3465241 Harbanger
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It's hard to break out of that "class system" mentality BK.  I can understand that.  I know you were educated into a certain perspective, but know that most of your "teachers" and the institutions they worked for had an agenda, you need to understand this if you want to move towards the truth.

Thu, 04/18/2013 - 05:12 | 3465403 Shevva
Shevva's picture

HaHaHa Moron, you want to know the fastest way to make money, tax people then steal it.

Thu, 04/18/2013 - 09:04 | 3465872 gwar5
gwar5's picture

After the Jim Crowe democrats finally capitulated on Civil Rights 1963 (100 years late), LBJ said, regarding creation of the welfare state: "We gotta get the n*gger vote."


Under Jimmy Carter, the top 1% earners only paid 19% of all tax revenues because their the tax rate was >70%.

Today the top 1% pay 39% of all tax revenues because the top tax rate is less than half Carter's rate.


Tax revenues and tax rates are two different things. Dumbass.

Thu, 04/18/2013 - 00:51 | 3465122 Missiondweller
Missiondweller's picture

Exactly. We were told we cold have Guns and Butter rather than Guns or Butter.

The same lies are perpetuated today that deficit spending is "investment" that must be made and is therefor entirely the responsible thing to do.

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 23:01 | 3464844 reader2010
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Nixon understood it before anyone else did, and opened up China to prolong our orgies a liitle longer. Now What?

Thu, 04/18/2013 - 01:50 | 3465221 RafterManFMJ
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Perhaps we could find new markets under the sea? Are ya ready kids?

Thu, 04/18/2013 - 02:13 | 3465249 AldousHuxley
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go work the chinese factory owners...that's what.

Thu, 04/18/2013 - 19:43 | 3468912 de3de8
de3de8's picture

Yeah, and I said be careful what you wish for making 1.2 billion more consumers.

Thu, 04/18/2013 - 05:58 | 3465439 q99x2
q99x2's picture

There is no future.

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 22:10 | 3464594 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

if the fed's "effectiveness" is gone there is nothing to stop the ensuing freefall.

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 22:11 | 3464598 FinalCollapse
FinalCollapse's picture

"Fed effectiveness" = Oxymoron.

Thu, 04/18/2013 - 05:10 | 3465402 Blast_Bug
Blast_Bug's picture

Look at the effectiveness of how "debt is good", and "more debt is more good":



Wed, 04/17/2013 - 22:16 | 3464612 EmmittFitzhume
EmmittFitzhume's picture

The next CON has not materialized yet

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 22:20 | 3464616 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

I think the fed has been very effective. They have held this thing together long enough for insiders to escape and the police state to get systems in place.

Thu, 04/18/2013 - 05:37 | 3465419 Go Tribe
Go Tribe's picture

Are these G20 guys really sitting around a giant roulette table? That is amazing.


Sun, 04/21/2013 - 23:07 | 3482452 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture



I bet ALL gold of Cyprus on red! - Angela Merkel (danke again to Mrs Schniztel & Mr. Hans!)

Genios, genios, genios!!

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 22:14 | 3464607 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

"They" don't give a crap about Main Street. "They" think its destruction is amusing.

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 22:22 | 3464637 kchrisc
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They will when their waiting their turn in front of the guillotine or masonry wall.        hujel

Thu, 04/18/2013 - 01:34 | 3465200 RaceToTheBottom
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On of the outcomes of a nice road is roadkill....  They view it as a cost of doing business.

Thu, 04/18/2013 - 04:13 | 3465375 Offthebeach
Offthebeach's picture

Let them( Main Street ) eat Quantitative Easing, or IPads.

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 22:20 | 3464610 John Law Lives
John Law Lives's picture

This has been a crazy week.

It is now being reported that a large fertilizer plant near Waco, TX has exploded tonight.  The following images on Twitter show an enormous blast:

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 22:23 | 3464641 Dr. No
Dr. No's picture

Krugman is pissing himself. This is massive stimulus.

Thu, 04/18/2013 - 02:58 | 3465294 piceridu
piceridu's picture

The biggest fertilizer plant was in D.C. I thought?

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 22:20 | 3464620 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Dr. Copper says things are not well.

Gold and bonds dipping are way ahead of the cotton candy equities.

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 22:20 | 3464630 MFLTucson
MFLTucson's picture

Gold is signaling a problem?  Hum, seems to me that the Jewish bankers see a problem, of their own making and now try to take Gold down for their own use (Comex explosion).  I see no problem with Bullion in fact; Silver Eagles have a $5 premium per ounce.  Ben Bernanke better find himself and his Jewish friends a place to hide because when this goes, people will be looking for that liar to hold him and his banking friends accountable! Now that’s a problem.

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 22:55 | 3464821 Midas
Midas's picture

Peak manischewitz.

Thu, 04/18/2013 - 03:39 | 3465343 Mr. Hudson
Mr. Hudson's picture

The tribe will exterminate or put in FEMA camps all those who are not members of the tribe.

Sun, 04/21/2013 - 22:49 | 3482409 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

the trans-russian Kahzar tribe.

The actual semites who are in Palestine will be exterminated. By the non-Jews pretending to be jews.

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 22:28 | 3464667 booboo
booboo's picture

Peak bullshit. Peak Hope and Change. Peak give a shit. The entire globe is a turd swirling down the crapper and we have a birds eye view, last man out the door please light a match so we can get the stench out of the room.

Sun, 04/21/2013 - 22:42 | 3482385 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

there is NEVER peak bullshit. I'm long on bullshit till the cows drop 'n' die, forget come home.

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 22:33 | 3464697 flow5
flow5's picture

I told you that March-April was the top last year. Economic prognostications for less than 1 year are infallible. The next inflection point is 5/1/2013. The bottom is Oct.

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 23:02 | 3464847 Its Only Rock N Roll
Its Only Rock N Roll's picture

There is a deflationary wind blowing...and its about to turn into quite a shit storm.  This weekend may become one of those weekends that I recall in 2008.  Full of speculation and angst, waiting to see what news Sunday evening will bring.  If we sell hard into close on Friday we know its here.  Just not sure "what" it is yet.  

Sun, 04/21/2013 - 22:39 | 3482378 MeelionDollerBogus
Wed, 04/17/2013 - 23:38 | 3464967 world_debt_slave
world_debt_slave's picture

The end of the Musclecar was the end of America!

Thu, 04/18/2013 - 00:49 | 3465120 mess nonster
mess nonster's picture

The muscle car died in 1973. Oh sure, you could still buy a Monte Carlo, or a GTO, or a Camaro, or even a Malibu/Chevelle, but the new car was the Chevette- ugly, underpowered, and cheap, cheap, cheap. It's all about oil, my friends. 1973 was the first shock of an inevitable trend. I just bought a mule. Draft animals- the wave of the future.

Thu, 04/18/2013 - 01:37 | 3465203 RaceToTheBottom
RaceToTheBottom's picture

Two words:  Chevy Vega.....


Two more:  Llamas and Alpacas.  Mobility and yarn....


Thu, 04/18/2013 - 10:28 | 3466249 zuuma
zuuma's picture

Ahhhh... the Vega.

Theoretically, a good car for the times. Small, light, decent gas mileage, fun to drive (with a stick). Better looking than a Pinto. Very attractive cousins: Monza, Sunbird, etc.

Alas, its defining feature was the engine: Overhead cam (good idea), aluminum engine block (good idea), unsleeved (bad idea), fitted with cast iron pistons & rings (abysmally bad idea).

Worn out in 20,000 miles.

But one man's catastrophe is another man's opportunity!  I bought a 1977 Monza Hatch w/ blown VEGA motor & 4-speed w/ 39,000 miles in minty condition for just $500 (in 1982).

Long story short, I sleeved & rebuilt the motor, added aluminum pistons, shaved the head, removed EGR, etc. DIY so only about $700 for all that.

Ran like a raped ape.  33mpg (Excellent for the era).  I put 140,000 more miles on it. Sold it o my sister. She put on another 20,000 & sold it to my dad. He put on another 15,000.

in 1992, he sold it to a neighbor kid w 230,000 miles on it - still running great (only 2nd clutch!!). Don't know what happened after that.


Thu, 04/18/2013 - 19:49 | 3468936 de3de8
de3de8's picture

Raped ape with a broken leg.

Thu, 04/18/2013 - 09:17 | 3465944 gwar5
gwar5's picture

Mopeds, bithcezz.


I was surprised the other week to find Europe already has non-hybrid cars that get 50-60-70 MPGs, but cannot get them approved for use in the USA. There is a long list of them. They are basically 4 cyl turbo gas/diesels, etc., nothing exotic.  

Speculation is that we cannot get them in USA because they get such good mileage/gal tax revenues would go down dramatically to the US Gov. If the enviro-wackos actually believe the planet needs saving then why are they not lobbying the shit out of Pelosi, Gore and Obama to fix this RIGHT NOW?

Thu, 04/18/2013 - 11:41 | 3466504 zuuma
zuuma's picture

us gearheads have known about this for a long time. This isn't new.

Motor tech is one issue (EPA). but safety mandates (NHTSA) like: airbags, ABS, 5mph bumpers, etc would have to be added to those econoboxes

Fed safety crap = more $$$ and more weight --> less mpg


Also, gearheads create versions of these cars using the grey market.

You can't buy the efficient car here, but, in most cases, you CAN buy the front clip (half) of the car from a european or japanes wreck & ship it. Parts is parts, as they say.

Then, buy the inefficient, USA-spec version & swap everything under the hood. Fits right in.

I saw a nice 1999 Landcruiser with a Turbodiesel 6 swapped in.  26mpg instead of 10. Pretty cool.

Thu, 04/18/2013 - 19:47 | 3468927 de3de8
de3de8's picture

Unless you live in an emissions state.

Thu, 04/18/2013 - 19:49 | 3468920 de3de8
de3de8's picture

Debt Slave,
Only if they are not still in your stable.

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 23:55 | 3465001 tawse57
tawse57's picture

Gold and other PMs going down is not just deflationary but a sign that QE is failing. Will we soon see a huge crash in global stock markets? If so, what does the Fed do then other than continue the printing madness?

Thu, 04/18/2013 - 00:55 | 3465137 mess nonster
mess nonster's picture

The FED's QE is about getting the police state in place. I say the economy will limpo along until a national ID card is issued (under the guise of immigration reform). Once we're all tagged, bagged and gagged, then they will let the wheels fall off.


Thu, 04/18/2013 - 01:05 | 3465160 greggh99
greggh99's picture

More QE . Bigger QE. Spectacular new levels of QE are coming. There's no turning back.

Thu, 04/18/2013 - 08:24 | 3465701 onewayticket2
onewayticket2's picture

Think that's right. There are more trix in the bag.

The USA will be "turning Japanese" and double or triple the bet. That's run for the hills time.

Thu, 04/18/2013 - 00:22 | 3465058 Schmuck Raker
Schmuck Raker's picture

Sorry Lance, but I really don't need "More Evidence That The Economic Peak Is In" so I give this piece a "Meh, 3 stars".

"Hi everyone. My name is Schmuck Raker, and I'm a Jaded SOB."

Thu, 04/18/2013 - 01:15 | 3465178 MaxThrust
MaxThrust's picture

The end must be coming because I just read that Ford and GM are going to coordinate design of a 9 speed automatic transmission.

What? I thought. The two main colluders in the gas-guzzler car design consortium planning to make a 9 speed automatic. An their reasoning is " its more fuel efficient! "

I mean what have the CEO's of these companies been smoking, This is heresy against the oil companies. Not to forget they are only 10 years behind in this design idea.

Everywhere one looks we see corruption, cartels, collusion and obscuration.

Maybe the boards of these two once huge companies see their irrelevance and the need to change direction. They are abandoning their cosy relationship with big oil simply to survive. The end is near and the sooner it comes and we get the reset the world needs the better.

Thu, 04/18/2013 - 09:28 | 3466002 Jumbotron
Jumbotron's picture

"I mean what have the CEO's of these companies been smoking, This is heresy against the oil companies. Not to forget they are only 10 years behind in this design idea."

Not quite.....

Land Rover has announced that it will demonstrate the world's first nine-speed automatic transmission for a passenger car at the 2013 Geneva Motor Show. The ZF HP9 9-speed gearbox has a higher top gear in a more compact design, in order to fit in the same space as conventional 6-speed transmissions. According to Land Rover, it will also provide smoother gear shifts with improved accelerations and lower fuel consumption. 

ZF has been working on the HP9 since 2011, but has been a bit coy as to what car maker it was intended for. Now it’s revealed that Land Rover is both the customer and lead partner for the new gearbox. Intended for use in front-transverse mounted engines, it’s based on ZF control technologies originally developed for the ZF 8HP gearbox.

By increasing the number of gears from the standard six to nine, ZF has produced a ratio spread of 9.3 with small ratio steps. Where a conventional 6-speed gearbox makes downshifts sequentially, Land Rover and ZF claim that the 9HP glides between gear changes almost imperceptibly. In addition, the lowest ratio is lower than that of a 6-speed and is more suitable for off-road use and steep inclines.


The ZF 9HP is a nine-speed automatic transmission, designed but not built by ZF Friedrichshafen AG subsidiary ZF Getriebe GmbH in Saarbrücken.[1] As a front-transverse transmission, it will debut in front-wheel drive and All-wheel drive vehicles. ZF touts the new design as being able to save an average of 16% in fuel usage over current 6-speed automatic transmissions. Tentative ratio spread is 9.84:1. Transmission will have a torque range between 280 and 480 Nm.[1]

The 9HP is masterfully packaged and despite the extra three gear ratios is only 0.24 inches (6mm) longer and actually weighs 16.5 lbs (7.5 kg) less than the outgoing six-speed transmission. The compact packaging is achieved by using a number of innovative design features: A new compact hydraulic vane-type pump, two patented dog clutches replacing bulkier conventional clutch packs, and a nested gear set.[2]

Land Rover will demonstrate the world's first nine-speed automatic transmission for a passenger car at the 2013 Geneva Motor Show.[2]

The production of the 9HP will start in 2013 with a unit of 400,000 per year at ZF's Gray Court facility in Greenville, South Carolina.[3]



Even before Sergio Marchionne took charges, rumors swirled around the idea of Chrysler using ZF eight-speed automatics, also used by makers such as Porsche and BMW, in their SRT8 cars and selected Dodge Ram pickups. Marchionne himself confirmed the selection in 2010, and in 2011, Chrysler revealed that the eight-speed would also be used in the LX cars — backing the Pentastar V6 engine. Charger and 300 got it first, during 2011 (for 2012 model year cars), followed by Ram (2013 model year).

Some sources say it is a ZF design, while others say there has been Chrysler engineering; most likely it incorporate ideas from both companies, though it is increasingly likely that it is a ZF design with “external fit” and minor changes to match Chrysler equipment. In fact, there are three eight-speed transmissions: the 8HP45 (ZF’s unchanged-except-for-case version), the Chrysler-redesigned 845RE, and an upcoming heavier duty model based on the 8HP90. Most of the transmissions used by Chrysler will be made at the automaker’s Kokomo, Indiana, Transmission Plant but some will be built by ZF itself at a new transmission plant in Greenville, South Carolina. Chrysler is investing $300 million in the Kokomo plant. The new ZF facility, the first ZF plant to make car transmissions in the USA, will also make the 9-speed automatic transmission for transverse-mounted engine applications that was presented at the North American International Auto Show (NAIAS) — as will Chrysler, again, in Kokomo. So....not 10 years behind....but behind the Germans anyway.


Thu, 04/18/2013 - 10:01 | 3466153 Kayman
Kayman's picture

Caterpillar has been using planetary transmissions for 50 years. And hydraulic pump/motor combinations have been used in industry for 50 years also.  Ford and GM could have been in the game 50 years ago.

Thu, 04/18/2013 - 03:31 | 3465332 rp1
rp1's picture

Prices today are meaningless.  They will all change according to what we do next!

Thu, 04/18/2013 - 03:35 | 3465337 Mr. Hudson
Mr. Hudson's picture

There is only one page to your link.

Thu, 04/18/2013 - 07:22 | 3465543 GraveyardSpiral
GraveyardSpiral's picture

@Mr. Hudson:  Don't click on the link.  It is a troll!!!!  The domain is Chinese.  If your Adobe Reader is not patched then you are now infected!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Thu, 04/18/2013 - 03:48 | 3465354 Bearwagon
Bearwagon's picture

Yeah, don't panic! Use these:

Thu, 04/18/2013 - 03:59 | 3465366 Prairie Dog
Prairie Dog's picture

"While it remains to be seen whether the latest peak in CPI is a forewarning of economic contracting it clearly confirms that economic activity for the current cycle has peaked."

Do what? Didn't he just say that CPI rate of inflation has fallen? So what peak? By his own definition, there is no harbinger of contraction here. Looks to me like the writer is trying to jam the data into his preconceived narrative of where things are heading, rather than letting the data do the leading.




Thu, 04/18/2013 - 08:16 | 3465682 Winston of Oceania
Winston of Oceania's picture

That would be the peak in 2010, can you read charts? Since then the CPI has been falling along with production and in doing so CONTRADICTS the sell side line that the economy is improving. Talk about preconvictions...

Thu, 04/18/2013 - 10:11 | 3466191 Kayman
Kayman's picture

"letting the data do the leading."

Once statisticians use something as subjective as utility in the number set(s) of their data, then data is meaningless.

Compare something relatively unchanged, say like a gallon of gas 50 years ago with it's price today. Or have someone tell you how much more value you have in an iPhone versus a landline of 50 years ago. One is a communication device, the other is an entertainment device.

Governments want to mask the shift of wealth to their friends while keep the poor docile with SNAP cards.  It is private sector businesses and employees that are being bled dry. And "data" from government is there to blow smoke up the bumblebee's ass.

Thu, 04/18/2013 - 07:09 | 3465518 alfbell
alfbell's picture




 So those who stayed liquid and in cash all through this time period, and didn't get scared off by inflationary scares,  will be ready to buy the bargains in the deflationary bottom that is coming. And, then prepare and set themselves up for the inevitable high inflation.

Thu, 04/18/2013 - 08:33 | 3465740 percyklein
percyklein's picture

A satisfying, overdue reward for some.

Thu, 04/18/2013 - 08:24 | 3465703 jjsilver
jjsilver's picture

All the data is rigged

Thu, 04/18/2013 - 08:41 | 3465775 Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

The Fed will keep printing until they run out of trees in the forests.

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