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Stocks Slammed To Worst 4-Day Run Of 2013
Despite a well-placed Nikkei headline (at 3am Japan time) that spooked JPY lower in an effort to ramp stocks, S&P futures closed down around 22 points to cap the worst 4-day high-low swing swince December - unable to break VWAP. Protection was well bid everywhere with VIX once again spiking up to over 17.5% before ending the day up 2.5 vols around 16.5% (implying notably more weakness to come for stocks). The S&P sell-off stalled at the 50DMA - its closest to the mythical Maginot line since the post-fiscal cliff rally began. Treasury yields dropped to 4-month lows at 1.67% before bouncing modestly higher into the close. The USD strengthened as EUR had its worst day in months. Copper and Oil suffered the most as growth fears spread (both pinned together -7.2% from last Thursday). Gold and Silver practically flatlined today (with gold a slight outperformer). Tech and energy struggled on the day but homebuilders are the week's biggest losers for now. S&P volume was 2nd highest of the year as Nasdaq and Trannies plunge back to recent lows.
S&P Futures saw heavy volume and ended pinned to VWAP despite the best efforts a late-day VIX/HYG/JPY ramp...
S&P 500 Futures - 2nd biggest volume day of 2013, biggest 4-day swing of 2013.
VIX remains well bid...
Broken Trendline?
It seems something happened last Thursday on the European close. Bitcoinh had dumped overnight, US equities soared out of the gate on a better-than-expected Jobless Claims print but the moment Europe closed... we never looked back and then later than night gold started its epic collapse...
Trading was very systemic today - correlations within ETFs and Capital Context's CONTEXT model were very high (and ended together)... closing yesterday's exuberant gap...
They tried to save the day with another well-place JPY headline - but stocks didn't budge. And then Lew let the air out...
How much further for stocks? Who knows?
Charts: Bloomberg and Capital Context
Bonus Chart: AAPL - every attempt to get back to VWAP (red) failed but $400 was a clear barrier for now... (though the closing VWAP orders are obvious sells)...
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BTFD!!
until one day there is no bounce
It’s all good.. as long as the paper gold price is kept from reflecting the truth.
OT.. but WTF, the market is all BS anyway.
So the missus is ill, she is lying down with the TV on.. the .” Katie” show. The missus in not brain dead enough to like the show.. just enough to leave it on for background noise.. I’m just outside the room for a few moments and I hear some young guy talking about the value of some found memorabilia associated with WWII.. the “Enola Gay”… “one of the B-25 super fighters” That is the exact quote.
I had a hard time refraining from grabbing the closest 1911 and putting a .45 ACP into the screen.
Time to buy some puts on DUST.
These charts are really beautiful when you hold some puts. Chose fb because no other chart gives you that much satisfaction when its all deep red...
@Toys,
Buy GDX calls. I bought some a few minutes before close.
GDX is better than NUGT and DUST for the following reasons:
- No underlying ETF decay
- High volume
- The percent moves in options is roughly the same as the leveraged ETF's.
- You do NOT get an advantage when buying NUGT or DUST over GDX.
Check out this guy's trading strategy.
http://breakpointtrades.com/market_lab/index.php/systems/gdx_systems/
Also, just look at BPGDM. It's at ZERO!!!!!! ZERO!!!! That is a "0"!!!!
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?$BPGDM
Don't scoff. Those super fighters were armed with state-of-the-art new, clear bombs.
I thought they were the G.W. new que lure version, but at least they all had Nerdin bumsights.
uhm ... are there really people who still care?
accorrding to the pros...ok asshole with the ponytail what about this apple drop....oh chinese chick, this is a once in a lifetime...buy buy buy....apple is a tremendous oppurtunity to get in......now, gold has had a similar drop ponyboy....well my little china doll all i can say is run, run from gold..run run run....hurry get in a fucking car, drive to the airport get on a fucking plane and run run run...
edit...can someone help me with this guys name...ankta fetelli?...old guy.....he was on kierser a month or so ago...in this interview he talked about the futures marking tanking because of no trust....would love to re-listen to again...
Antal Fekete.
thank you...i couldnt get the spelling close enough for any search to find...
Antal Fekete?
Please crash
Yes, the suspense is killing me .
Would you like a bigger bombing with that as well?
Charts, bitchez!
bombs, bomb threats and jittery markets. Liquor is a buy.
I'm goin long on Tums >_>
Prelude to "Worse Year since 2008"
think positively cursive ... we could actually eclipse 2008 ...
short social peace in Portugal
I just hope we don't have "A worst year since 1348".
There are far more important things in life than money.
Another Carrington Event would change everyone's mind about a lot of things.
Nothing has happened, absolutely nothing.
My rule of thumb: Only when I see 1000 dow points drop per day, 3 days in a row, then something is happening.
LoL. In the new reality, if there are 3 100 point dow drops 3 days in a row, something must be happening.
Only when I see a Dow/Gold ratio of 1 or less, then I know it is on... umm maybe over, as well.
According to Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
The rally from March 9, 2009 is the 6th best rally since 1929
The S&P 500 has rallied 127.85% from the March 9, 2009 low to the March 6, 2013 high. This is the sixth best rally or "bull market" for the S&P 500 since 1929. The rally from March 9, 2009 is four years old and is the eight longest bull market. We are defining a bull market as a rally of at least 20% without a 20% correction using daily closing basis data. There are 25 of these bull markets going back to 1929 with an average return of 103.5% and a median return of 73.5%.
http://www.scribd.com/doc/136285938/The-S-P-500-Rally-From-Mar-2009-is-the-6th-Best-Rally-Since-1929-Bank-of-America-Merrill-Lynch
$85 billion a month of free "money" and all they could pull off is 6th best?
Cramer said to buy the dip before the train leaves the station. Thanks a lot fucker!
reminds me of the time he came out in support of Lehman's ... the day before they became insolvent ... or when he came on air the day after MF Global failed and said he knew Corzine personally and there is NO WAY he could be involved in comingling funds ...
Cramer actually recommended gold which shocked me. He says 1350 will act as strong support and we will see a nice bounce off that. I've never heard Cramer positive on PMs before so this kind of took me back a bit.
Actually going back to early 2011 he was recommending gold. He's not a pumper, but he was basically saying that everyone should have some as insurance. I know, shocking.
He only said it as "credibility insurance". This is the same toolbag who said "Whatever you do, do NOT sell Lehman".
Hey just saying.
But then again, he was buying GLD and not phyzz. And in true Crameresque form he called the top in gold by saying it was a buy at 1850ish.
Charles Nenner was just on CNBC saying if the markets go down another 3%-4% the May swoon will be a big one.
I think S&P 1,545 and DOW 14,454 were the levels he were saying would be a turning point.
Former market timer for Goldman Sachs if I remember correctly (not Muppet slayer).
his "swoon" takes the DOW from 14,600 to 14,400?! ... uhm, I think a few people might be in for a big surprize ...
I will believe it when I see it. Monday was a broad, across the board sell day. Today wes much more selective - the futures were down a lot but a lot of names finished 50% off the low pt of the day. Many were stronger than the market (down less) with a higher beta. Despite the futures coming back down to Mondays lows the market overall acts long still. There is still far too easy a time ramping stocks on any futures push. There is little to no resistance in many names because the movement is purely index related. There are few funds that are looking to lighten up. If so you would not see the same ease with ramping stuff higher. Perhaps this has changed now but it does not appear so yet.
He was staring at Michelle Caruso-Cabrera's tits. I personally can't blame him...she's got some soccer balls under that shirt.
Pig.
Whad ya expect from a meat hammer ???
Whad ya expect from Michelle ???
I think you are all right.
Wow. Wonder if that's her? Couldn't be. If so, you need a more creative handle. Just sayin'.
Also, you have huge tits.
Apmex silver eagles $30.89. Silver has not been crushed, SLV has. The MSM is over the cliff now...CNBC is pulling the shills saying "there's no place to go but equities" and "none of the fears that underly holding gold have materialized."
The end is nigh, muppetz.
Completely agree, all good news, when your mother looks at you like a lunatic for buying silver instead of stocks because the market is "going gangbusters"...keep fucking stacking
APMEX = 30.00% + premium over spot
PSLV = 0.14% premium over NAV
Is this simply a reflection of "bird in the hand" or a fear that the vaults holding Sprott's silver are empty?
FWIW I noticed PSLV trading at a discount to NAV a few times this week, almost -0.5 today.
Also, your question is a good one.
Edit: PSLV closed today at 9.13, -.37 to NAV (http://sprottphysicalbullion.com/sprott-physical-silver-trust/net-asset-...)
What's yer handle again there pardner?
They have it stored at what is essentially an arm of the Canadian government. So, to the extent that you trust the Canadian government not to confiscate your gold, I guess that's a good place to put your money. I trust that slightly more than, say, CEF, where you're basically buying a paper promise of a paper promise of physical gold, in which you have to trust your broker that is holding the CEF share, and the Mellon family that is allegedly holding the phys.
What happened to the 3:30 ramp up?
Never got to escape velocity. Gravity is picking up steam, methinks.
It was evacuated.
that's what I get for not refreshing the page
i wanted to puke when they were saying today how the market was off its lows because of boston.
can they for once admit that this economy fucking sucks and everything around the globe is slowing.
if the market cared about boston, it would not have been up yesterday as high as it was ( 2nd biggest rally of year)
market should have been down lower today
Don't know, because Maria Bigtits said the dreaded D three times before being cutoff.
Somebody has got a sniff of whatevers is going on behind the curtain.
I'm going to clear cash out of the bank on Friday as a precaution.
Could be an interesting weekend the way things are shaping up.
Amen to clear cash out, but before Friday.
It's propaganda, chief. CNBC and the rest of the media are nothing more than Baghdad Bobs doing their dance for the establishment.
I watched two minutes of NBC Nightly News about a month and a half ago, and it instantly reminded me of why I hadn't watched TV news in more than a year. And once you've been away from it for a significant period of time, seeing it again reveals all sorts of shit that would make Edward Bernays blush.
damn straight McM....stopped watching MSM news for years, when I see it now it hurts my eyes and ears. I wonder why I was so absorbed before....now I see that it is all bullshit.
I find it odd that they even come to work anymore actually. Local news is all right...but clearly "the daze of speaking to the world" like it ever meant anything are long since past. If they had a show on "the amazing habits of goose nesting" I might check in.
**I wrote this for use after a market top, and though it’s WAY too early, when and if the proper time comes, this can be sung to the tune of Rod Stewart’s “Maggie May”:
BENNIE MAY
{guitar and mandolin slowly fade in}
Wake up, Bennie, I think I’ve got something to say to you
It’s springtime and it looks like I’ve been quite a fool
Investors keep you amused, but we feel we’re being used
Oh, Bennie, you couldn't have lied any more
You led me away from bonds
with the most inglorious of cons
You stole my savings, and that's what really hurts
The morning sun when it’s in your beard really shows your age
But that don't comfort me none -- in my eyes, you're no damn sage
I laughed when you tried QE
not once, not twice – but THREE ?
Oh, Bennie, you couldn't have lied any more
You led me right into stocks
just as they were hitting the rocks
You stole my future, I couldn't retire now if I tried
{guitar solo}
I suppose I could try Herbalife or head on back to school
Or sell advertising space on the back of a rented mule
Or find myself a lemonade stand
that needs a helping hand
Oh, Bennie, I wish I'd never seen your face
My very first trades, you see
marked the peak of the S&P
You tried your best, but I hate you anyway
{cue guitar solo, then scintillating mandolin break}
Bennie, I wish I'd never seen your face
I'll get back to parity one of these days . . . (Boo-hoo)
Funny - all they have done is erase the gains of last week basically. They ramped the market from 1550 to 1590. An actual correction would do far, far more than this. Many stocks are still right up near 52 week highs - there is no real selling.
Wait until the year opening gap on all indicies is filled in short order. My guess is in next week or so. That will take away all the YTD dip buyers and then some. It's coming.
Maybe if we drop the cat from a higher height, it might bounce. Or splatter. Whatever.
the miners are getting absolutely hammered. some are even approaching 2009 levels, which is absurd given that gold was $900, silver $12, and the central banks of the world had yet to go full retard.
If the market doesn't crash by 2014 Obamacare will push it over the cliff.
2 big companies, axp and ebay both reported disappointments after bell.
i guess this will be bullish for market. so despite the fact that expectations have been lowered dramatically, these companies still can not beat. lol.
the most amusing earnings report though come next thursday when amazon reports. the company that has not made a profit in years and always misses, yet its stock shoots up 5 percent after each earnings report.
Yeah what the hell is going on with amazon?
3500 at the moment. You're never getting that money back.
Buy moar stawks!
After watching the market and all the other crap today, I started drinking early. Anybody want to join me.
I would strongly advise you to substitute "continuously" for "early". Things will be much better. And then I will join you.
Holding cash is a vote for deflation and value. Holding assets is a vote for inflation and devaluation. Holding Gold is a vote for War! Either way, you're getting high interest rates.
http://www.cecm.sfu.ca/~rpearcea/dontvoteforgold.pdf
Stop spamming your website in every fucking thread. Thanks.
You don't understand. There's going to be an inflationary boom in Japan and a deflationary bust everywhere else. And then we can all purchase assets at a fair price. Interest rates will rise to ensure it. If you are speculating, you are already screwed.
http://www.cecm.sfu.ca/~rpearcea/dontpanic.pdf
Interest rates will rise to ensure it.
This is not the 80s. Rising interest rates results in USA default.
Holding cash is a vote for deflation and value.
Exactly. That's why sane investors hold gold, rather than unbacked debt.
Banhammer please
that chart looks like shit!
stocks slammed all the way back to last thursday bitchez. 1552, a whole 2.6% off all time highs. buy buy buy assholez
http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/streetools/filters/equity_si.aspx
Current Short Interest Data for SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Shares Short (millions): 248.71
Short Interest Ratio: 2.10
Percent Change: 5.2%
Short Interest/Float: 32.2%
--------------------------------------
Current Short Interest Data for SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA)
Shares Short (millions): 10.87
Short Interest Ratio: 1.80
Percent Change: -10.9%
Short Interest/Float: 15.2%
The problem is the Fed is beginning to embark on what Japan has tried for the last 10 years. The markets beginning to see that Japan's QE measures have failed. Japanese Government bonds are still rising which is suicide for Japan. The biggest mistake of 2013 will be that people think what has happened over these past few days was a "one off" event. It's like the boy who cried wolf. Everyone has been expecting the crash to happen for so long and it hasn;t that when it actually begins to happen...everyone will deny it. That's what makes this market so dangerous
"starting to embark". Not so, the FED Flagship Titanic is aiming for the Blue Ribbon. As we all know, it took the original Titanic over half a century for only a few of it's artifacts to get to New York.
Free Jon Corzine!
Ex-MF Global Broker Sentenced to 5 Years for Rogue Tradeshttp://www.businessweek.com/news/2013-04-16/ex-mf-global-broker-sentence...
So close...so close
punish the minnow, give bonus to whale
I was told the emperor has new clothes
Right, those are invisible clothes, so whenever he wears them, you can look right through him and only see the other side of the road ...
No true. Our emperor has one item of clothing, a beanie!
wave 5 officially finished, bichez
Dont know if you guys saw or not, but VIX 60 and 65 calls traded heavy today. I think something is up. check it out at www.tradingvix.com
Usually spot vix drops like a stone the week of contract expiration but now we're in backwardation! Something is definitely up. I want to know who is getting the margin calls.
We know the Bernak is putting in at least 3.5 bil. a day, and it's still going down. Whose taking more than 3.5 bil out? HInt: It's not me.
oh C'mon Ben.. we can't let the Japanese beat us at our own game!.. time to double down man.
http://www.safehaven.com/article/29523/shale-oil-is-a-big-game-changer-for-dow-to-gold-ratio
Financial history is marked with times when populations took collective leave of their senses and succumbed to delusions of ever-expanding wealth. Times of rampant speculation have been enthralled by the introduction of new technologies, that are used to justify pumping-up market valuations, - not just for the present, but also for the near future, and far over the horizon as well. Quite often, the new found wealth is nothing more than a mirage. The wild enthusiasm for the stock market is often overtaken by speculative froth and emotional mania. As such, s pectacular rallies deliver massive gains for one generation of lucky investors, but also create massive overvaluations that plague the next generation.
In the case of central banks, - they usually ignore stock market bubbles that expand as a result of liquidity conditions that have been "too easy for too long." In today's markets, central bankers in England, Japan, and the US have jettisoned the principles of free markets, and instead, are working overtime at the behest of the ruling politicians, to artificially inflate the value of their local equity markets, - deploying unorthodox tools such as massive liquidity injections and locking borrowing costs near zero-percent. "The tools we have involve affecting financial asset prices, to the extent that consumers feel wealthier, they'll feel more disposed to spend," Fed chief Ben Bernanke explained.
Never mind that 82% of US-listed equities are owned by just 10% of the US-population. The Fed's theory of "trickle down" economics, - that is to say, inflating the money supply in order to inflate the stock market, will somehow enrich the lives of greater society, - is nothing more than a pipedream at best, or rather an act of purposeful deceit at its worst. "By this means government may secretly and unobserved, confiscate the wealth of the people and not one man in a million will detect the theft. And while the process impoverishes many, it actually enriches some," observed John Maynard Keynes, in 1920. In other words, the US-central bank's policy is strictly designed to enrich the fortunes of the Ultra-wealthy.
Last week, the Dow Jones Industrials soared to as high as 14,850, its highest level in history. The Dow's four year advance "has prompted plenty of catcalls and profound skepticism about whether equities have gone too far, too fast in what is the least-loved Bull market in history." Moreover, the rally highlights the vast disconnect between the bleak economic and social conditions facing working people and the staggering rise in corporate profits, inflated stock and bond prices, and the rapidly rising wealth of the corporate - financial elite in the US and around the world. Even as national and international bodies have issued one dismal report on the global economy after another, the US-bankers and CEO's have celebrated ever-rising stock values. The rise in corporate profits is chiefly the result of an unrelenting drive to lower workers' wages and benefits, while ratcheting up workers' output.
Nowadays, there is widespread understanding that the Fed's ultra easy money policies (dubbed QE) have gotten a lot of bang for the buck. By increasing the quantity of the high-octane MZM money supply in circulation, by $1.1-trillion since the start of 2012, the Fed was able to engineer a powerful rally, - increasing the market value of the shares listed on the NYSE and Nasdaq by $3.7-trillion. Today, the value of the US-stock market stands at a record $20.5-trillion in April, and it would require a steady stream of QE-injections into the future to support today's lofty valuations, and to lift the stock market into higher ground.
Yet at the same time, Gold Bugs are licking their wounds, and asking why the vast money printing operations of the bank of Japan and the Fed aren't have the same beneficial effect on the price of Gold or Silver. Instead, to the extreme contrary, - the price of Gold suddenly collapsed in recent days, suffering its worst rout in 30-years. The "Black April" Crash of the Gold market comes on the heels of a 19-month roller coaster ride, in which the price of the yellow metal swung widely, but eventually landed at the border-line of Bear market territory at $1,560 /oz. However, once this key horizontal line of support was penetrated - huge sell orders kicked-in. The Gold market was suddenly thrust into a panicked free-fall, spiraling -13% lower until finding support at $1,320 /oz, where bargain hunters emerged.
Still, there were advance warning signs of trouble for the Gold market. Since mid-November, the market value of the Dow Jones Industrials - compared to the price of Gold (the Dow-to-Gold ratio), was moving steadily higher. Traders figure the best way to profit from the Fed's QE-schemes, is through purchasing US-stock market index futures and ETF's. Today, 1-share of the Dow Jones Industrials can fetch 10.7-ounces of Gold, compared with only 7.35-ounes last November. Given that the Dow peaked at 42-oz's of Gold in 1999, there's still plenty of room for the Dow to regain lost ground against the yellow metal.
When speaking of the Dow-to-Gold Ratio, - no matter which way the wind blows on Wall Street, the Dow is likely to gain further ground compared to the price of Gold. One big advantage that the US-stock market has over the precious metals is the widespread perception that the Fed will always ride to the rescue of Wall Street whenever risky bets go sour - dubbed the "Bernanke Put."
Although a majority of analysts profess to be wary of a dangerous bubble that's brewing in the in G-7 bond markets, - the Fed has successfully enforced its policy of "Financial Repression," with purchases of $45-billion per month of US T-notes. Offered at a yield at 2.88% today, the Treasury's 30-year bond is yielding -25-basis points less than a year ago. The Fed is simply following the blueprints of the Bank of Japan. Although the US T-bond market is a ticking time bomb that could explode at anytime, for now, the Fed is doing a masterful job of rigging the T-bond market at ultra-low yields.
wow. that took awhile to write.
no kidding. i prefer succinct bullshit.
roflmao +1
Citi bank is taking it on the chin today....hard to believe ...where's The Bernank?
All the more reason to buy GOLD....Oh wait.
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2013/04/the-10-rules-of-goldbuggery/
LOL
-1 for posting a link to Shitholtz.
i am willing to give the bulls any growth number they want, 5% 8% or even 10%, the real issue is whats the base number? what is the inherent value of the assets. if you want 10% growth i certainly won't argue with that from a point say 20% lower than we are today. the real issue in being invested in this market is when do i get revalued lower? this is market of ten baby steps forward, one giant step back.
So the market goes up but the monetary base expands to absorb the profits and then some? LOL
It's like never ending with your type. Gold declines due to bankster manipulation. And gold goes up because of hyperinflation. OK I GET IT.
Whenever the public gets heavily involved in an asset class it always ends horribly.
so why is HYG and JNK not moving with the market?
Effective Federal Funds Rate from 1954 to 2013:
http://www.scribd.com/doc/136581486/Effective-Federal-Funds-Rate-1954-to-2013-Federal-Reserve
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2013/feb/24/markets-struggling-serious-drug-habit
David Brown, of New View economics, says: "We are back to bubble economics and the super-accelerant added by the central banks is the propellant that will take this rally back above the upper hemisphere in the coming years."
He adds: "The Fed is going to be the last agent that will want to upset the applecart on the risk-on revival to date. It has plied the markets with more liquidity than anyone else. It wants risk-on. It wants irrational exuberance. It wants four dimensional easing – easy money, easy rates, easy currency and easy fiscal policy. It wants stronger growth and the lower cost of capital to markets is all part of that plan. Strong equity markets and stronger financial wealth perceptions are central to this. If consumers feel wealthier because their stocks go up and house prices start to stabilize, then that is part of the game-plan too."
This all may sound eerily reminiscent of the world before the meltdown. That's because it is. The repair job on the US economy is more advanced than that in Europe, and there is a real chance of an industrial renaissance in the years to come. Energy is cheap, China has lost some of its labour-cost advantage, higher oil prices are making it far less advantageous to outsource. Manufacturing jobs are coming home.
Is now a good time to get into the market?