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Goldman Confirms Slowdown Accelerating

Tyler Durden's picture


Two weeks ago we showed the notable cyclical collapse in Goldman Sachs' business cycle 'Swirlogram', due to a combination of downward revisions in over-adjusted data and actual economic decline. The latest 'swirlogram' shows that the situation has gone from bad to worse. While hope remains due to strength in AUD and CAD (commodity) currencies, Consumer confidence, global PMIs, and Industrial metals have all worsened significantly pushing the Global Leading Indicator momentum down notably. The next key indicators Goldman are watching are Belgian and Dutch manufacturing, Japanese Industrial Production Inventory/Sales, and Korean exports and they remain cautious of the increasing fiscal drag in the US.


How quickly we flopped from expansion to slowdown...


and Goldman's GLI points to future deterioration inglobal industrial production...


Charts: Goldman Sachs

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Thu, 04/18/2013 - 15:49 | 3467739 zorba THE GREEK
zorba THE GREEK's picture

Who listens to anything those thieving lying bastards have to say?

Thu, 04/18/2013 - 15:50 | 3467749 dereksatkinson
dereksatkinson's picture

Wasn't part of their "short gold" thesis based around a US recovery?  talking out both sides their asses..

Thu, 04/18/2013 - 16:00 | 3467790 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

What are you trying to say; kleptocrats can't be hypocrites and liars?

Thu, 04/18/2013 - 16:02 | 3467810 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

Excellent use of a semicolon in a sentence.  Up arrow for you.

Also note use of Lloyd Blankfein's colon in a sentence, below.  He got an up arrow, too.

Thu, 04/18/2013 - 16:21 | 3467870 cowdiddly
cowdiddly's picture


"Don't use semicolons. They stand for absolutely nothing. They are transvestite hermaphrodites. They are just a way of showing off. To show that you have been to college."

Kurt Vonnegut

 James Kilpatrick once called it "the most pusillanimous, sissified, utterly useless mark of punctuation ever invented" and "a belly-up guppie in a tank of glorious Siamese fighting fish."

Thu, 04/18/2013 - 16:23 | 3467895 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

Lulz that is funny.  I was going to use a hyphen - like that - which is also acceptable - it also keeps the sentence running on - but the semicolon is used frequently in most books - I'm quite used to them.

Thu, 04/18/2013 - 16:28 | 3467917 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

Should I even broach the subject of using the word "hopefully" in journalism?  ;)

Apparently there was a running gun battle over that word and it's use years back.

Thu, 04/18/2013 - 17:19 | 3468207 New England Patriot
New England Patriot's picture

'Slowdown accelerating.' Nice.

Thu, 04/18/2013 - 18:06 | 3468467 TwoShortPlanks
TwoShortPlanks's picture

This is, of couse, directly after Goldman scooped up the Lions' Share of last weeks 55 Ton Gold HEIST!

There's only 1 play from here-on-in; get a physical position, add to it, never sell, and go through the pain like everyone else (this game will have no top).

Thu, 04/18/2013 - 18:52 | 3468733 mophead
mophead's picture

Can we get back to the grammar discussion?

Thu, 04/18/2013 - 20:12 | 3469011 Jack Napier
Jack Napier's picture

Dear Kurt Vonnegut,

Semicolon usage is taught in Jr. High, not College. Maybe acquiring a GED is in order.

I happen to like semicolons. They are useful for a number of things; segregating objects of reference, winking emoticons, and continuing a thought without creating a new sentence for example.

Nice avatar, mophead.

Thu, 04/18/2013 - 20:30 | 3469093 WhiteNight123129
WhiteNight123129's picture

Nope nope nope. You should consider selling. But you will know when to sell not by looking at Gold. The Debt to GDP will be low, the inflation very high, the PEs on stock very low, the dividend yields very high, yet no one would want to touch financial assets by a 10 feet pole. Today given high PEs and low dividend yield with high leverage. No there yet.

When all the money printed has entered the circulation and destroyed the yield curve and financial assets, that is when inflation has run its course and when you need to switch to financial assets. I think you might want to own a lot of foreign financial assets outside of OECD.



Thu, 04/18/2013 - 20:37 | 3469121 akak
akak's picture

One could have made the same argument during the dying days of the Russian Empire in say 1916 --- and what would such investments have yielded their owners?

To glibly say that one should do this or that under X or Y conditions is hopelessly blinkered and shortsighted, particularly in this day and age.  We will most likely experience situations in the upcoming years that virtually nobody could imagine or envision today.

Thu, 04/18/2013 - 17:24 | 3468233 Pool Shark
Pool Shark's picture



I prefer using parentheses to set off sub-clauses (I find it's much cleaner).


Thu, 04/18/2013 - 16:40 | 3467953 cowdiddly
cowdiddly's picture

     When that guy mentioned semicolons, it made me think of reading that in one of Kurt's novels and struck me as funny but slightly true. I looked up the quote and noted that his last sentence in the quote could technically use one; I had'nt noticed it before.(lol) 

     I guess the sly ole bastard was making a point that if you are good enough with words even a fragment can stand alone.

And I did not down vote the other guys complement to the others writing.

Thu, 04/18/2013 - 20:32 | 3469105 WhiteNight123129
WhiteNight123129's picture

We have writers on this blog. Interesting, are there classical musicians on that blog? Would the real classical musician goldbug please stand up?

Thu, 04/18/2013 - 16:47 | 3467999 Bicycle Repairman
Bicycle Repairman's picture


Thu, 04/18/2013 - 16:55 | 3468033 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture



I have been to college; there is nothing glorious about fish in a tank.


The Elements of Style, 4th Edition
William Strunk, et al, $ 8.26

Thu, 04/18/2013 - 18:59 | 3468762 potlatch
potlatch's picture


Thu, 04/18/2013 - 15:59 | 3467791 TeamDepends
TeamDepends's picture

We tell the muppets things are slowin' down, then as they're walkin' away, we fuckin' scalp 'em.  Works every time!

Thu, 04/18/2013 - 17:23 | 3468226 Papasmurf
Papasmurf's picture

Who can take the muppets, sprinkle them with spew

offer them bad advice, that make their accounts look blue

The goldman man can, oh the goldman man can.

The goldman man can cause he cause mixes news with lies

that make the markets look askew.

The goldman man makes,  everything he fakes, satisfying and suspicious.

Now you can talk 'bout investment wishes;  you can even eat  ficticious.

Oh, who can state tomorrow, earnings will be full steam

Separate the muppets, who's assets were a dream

Oh, the goldman man can;  the goldman man can.

The goldman man can cause he has no moral compass

he wades into states and countries, and causes such a ruckess.

The goldman man can,   oh the goldman man can.

Who can make a contract, flip it in in a scheme

Take a muppet's assets, steal to the extreme

The goldman man can, the goldman man can.


Thu, 04/18/2013 - 15:50 | 3467741 Crash Overide
Crash Overide's picture

Fuck Goldman and the rest of them.

Thu, 04/18/2013 - 15:53 | 3467755 ptoemmes
ptoemmes's picture

The swirlogram swirls in ever decreasing spirals until it swirls up Lloyd Blankfein's asshole.

Thu, 04/18/2013 - 16:03 | 3467806 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

How can one argue with your prose & imagery?  :-)

Translation:  Shorter and shorter cycles indicate destabilization of the whole system.   

Reminiscent of a patient's imminent crash in a Dr. House episode.  Except there is no Dr. House & Team to save the patient.

Thu, 04/18/2013 - 16:27 | 3467911 venturen
venturen's picture

There should be a big black hole in the middle of the Swirl O Gram...now who is a big black hole?

Thu, 04/18/2013 - 20:34 | 3469117 WhiteNight123129
WhiteNight123129's picture

Exactly right, when it stops going down it is usually at the lowest point!!

I am sure Yogi Berra could have taught some truthiness to the muppets listening to Goldman Sachs.

Thu, 04/18/2013 - 15:53 | 3467758 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

Swirlogram = perfect analogy.

Thu, 04/18/2013 - 16:27 | 3467910 El Viejo
El Viejo's picture

Does it swirl the opposite direction south of the equator?

Thu, 04/18/2013 - 16:59 | 3468066 autofixer
autofixer's picture

Yes Oldy I can confim that it does, having traveled to Brazil often over the last 3 years.

Thu, 04/18/2013 - 15:53 | 3467761 Bicycle Repairman
Bicycle Repairman's picture

O/T except for the fact that this will finish off the economy, Obama, and many Democrats in congress.


Pelosi says gun control is inevitable.  This is the inevitable.  I doubt Pelosi will ever be speaker again after the rout that accompanies this.

Thu, 04/18/2013 - 15:55 | 3467776 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

Disinflation is the latest dance.  Do the Lack-o-motion.

Three Fed Presidents Say Disinflation May Prompt Easing


Thu, 04/18/2013 - 16:30 | 3467925 El Viejo
El Viejo's picture

Any excuse to QE.  That's like taxation to a politician. A missle program to a Republican and an entitlement to a Democrat.

Thu, 04/18/2013 - 15:57 | 3467781 butchee
butchee's picture

Second derivative, bitches!

Thu, 04/18/2013 - 16:05 | 3467819 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

"Take it to the limit... one more time".  - The Eagles

Thu, 04/18/2013 - 15:58 | 3467785 sudzee
sudzee's picture

OT: where has all the silver gone. Best price i could get was 50% rise in premium along with 4-14 weeks delivery.

Thu, 04/18/2013 - 15:58 | 3467789 docj
docj's picture

The "Recovery" is deepening.

All Hail King Putt!!

Thu, 04/18/2013 - 16:50 | 3467861 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

[sing to 'Lying Eyes', The Eagles]:

"City boys just seem to find out early, how to open vaults with just a smile.  A richer bank and he won't have to worry, he'll dress up all in silk and fly in style.

Late at night the big new house gets lonely, I guess every form of refuge has its price.  And it breaks his heart to think his soul is only given to a firm with tentacles as cold as ice.

So he tells his boss that he must work late this evening, to comfort an old Fund that's feeling down, but he knows what he's doing as he's shorting, he's headed for the cheatin' side of town.

On the other side of the trade a boy is waiting, with fiery eyes and dreams no one could steal, He clicks on through the night anticipating, cause the deal makes him feel the way he used to feel.

He rushes to his Buy, they fall together, He whispers that its only for a while, He swears he'll be coming back with moar forever, He clicks away and leaves him with a smile.

You can't hide your Swirling Eyes, And your smile is a thin disguise... I thought by now, you'd realize... there ain't no way you can hide your Swirling Eyes.  There ain't no way you can hide your Lying Eyes". 


Thu, 04/18/2013 - 15:59 | 3467792 bluskyes
bluskyes's picture

Where have I seen a swirl before?

Thu, 04/18/2013 - 16:01 | 3467799 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

I needed my Swirlogram fix for the month.  Thanks, Tyler.

Thu, 04/18/2013 - 16:00 | 3467800 IridiumRebel
IridiumRebel's picture

Can we try to slow down Goldman Sacks of shit? What if they simply just did not exist? I have a feeling that things may be better.

Le sigh

Thu, 04/18/2013 - 16:05 | 3467821 sodbuster
sodbuster's picture

Not hard to see where this is leading- Goldman Suks is leading the charge to even MORE money pumping. I have a feeling TBTF are about to do just that!! Lame stream media will be next to pick up the mantra- "Pump, pump, pump!!" Just when they had me convinced they had saved the world.......again! LOL

Thu, 04/18/2013 - 16:12 | 3467842 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

IBM misses on earnings and revenues.

Micrososft misses on most all sectors, except online and entertainment (XBOX, Live) better than expected.

That's right, business is cutting back on costs and employees; more people at home playing games and watching stuff.

Thu, 04/18/2013 - 16:17 | 3467862 icanhasbailout
icanhasbailout's picture

Looks like this summer is the long hot summer we've been expecting for a few years now.

Thu, 04/18/2013 - 16:17 | 3467869 Seasmoke
Seasmoke's picture

Swing and a miss ........happening everywhere

Thu, 04/18/2013 - 16:22 | 3467886 thismarketisrigged
thismarketisrigged's picture

fuck u goldman.


i, along with my fellow zerohedgers have been able to see the economy is shrinking for the years, its nice you guys just woke up at goldman.


go fuck yourselves goldman

Thu, 04/18/2013 - 16:24 | 3467903 monad
monad's picture

Its probably just summer coming on, with all the hype of unemployable global warming fanatics looking for a new scam.

Thu, 04/18/2013 - 16:29 | 3467926 venturen
venturen's picture

Tyler don't you have a theivin graph? I appreciate that banking, trading and even investimant banking can be useful...but it is currently dwarfing all other parts of the economy. 

Thu, 04/18/2013 - 16:33 | 3467933 davey
davey's picture

I think the coming short squeeze in gold will bury the no good bastards.

Thu, 04/18/2013 - 16:38 | 3467958 FieldingMellish
FieldingMellish's picture

They're going to need a bigger axis.

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