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Guest Post: Unintended Consequences Are Increasing World Demand For Gold
Submitted by Chris Martenson of Peak Prosperity,
With the financial experts claiming, some gleefully, that gold has "lost its safe haven status" in the aftermath of its biggest tumble in 30 years, many commentators thought (hoped?) that the dramatic price drop would steer people away from gold ownership. To my eyes, the past week has all the earmarks of a high-gloss propaganda campaign complete with well-placed anti-gold stories in the media and the careful use of language aimed at sowing doubt about gold's ability to be a store of wealth.
But for those who consider gold a store of value, the recent gold slam is a gift: an invitation to purchase more sound money with fewer units of paper currency. In other words, a sweet deal. Gold and silver on sale and the world is taking advantage.
As predicted last Friday, I wrote, "[k]nowing the lower prices will only exacerbate this West-to-East flow [of gold], I therefore thought that the bullion banks and central banks would not have dared push that dynamic any further."
Well, by all accounts, the flow of gold from West to East is now accelerating.
Gold Rout Heralds ‘Hot’ Indian Wedding Jewelry Season
Apr 16, 2013
Bullion tumbled 9.1 percent yesterday, the biggest loss since 1983, and that may make the precious metal more affordable to Indians, said Mehul Choksi, chief executive officer of Gitanjali, the nation’s biggest retailer of jewelry and diamonds by sales. The plunge has already revived interest among retail buyers, said Rajesh Mehta, chairman of Rajesh Exports Ltd.
“The season is very hot for buying” with weddings and other auspicious dates coming up, Choksi said. “The decline will be positive for jewelry as there will be a pick-up in demand because affordability will increase. Volumes will increase.”
“We rushed to buy as soon as we saw prices fall so much and decided to buy jewelry early for our daughter’s wedding in January,” said Blossom D’souza, while browsing through a selection of bangles in a jewelry store in Mumbai’s Chira Bazaar area. “Now we can buy more gold within our budget.”
Doh! Unintended consequences are piling up already, as people in India gleefully accumulate more gold at lower prices.
And this, regarding Australia:
The Perth Mint reports that retail customers are increasing purchases at a record rate even as gold slumps to a 21 month low. As the experts were proclaiming the "Death of Gold", the Perth Mint website recorded the highest activity of the year and one of the best days of the past year.
Bargain prices on gold and silver have greatly increased the demand for physical gold and silver by the public. Demand for gold coins have [sic] skyrocketed with sales of Australian gold bullion coins increasing by 48% in the first quarter over the comparable prior year period.
(Source)
A couple of mainstream media reports linked the gold slam to increased selling by Japanese investors, those ideas turned out to be either speculative, premature, or both:
As global price slumps, "Abenomics" risks drive Japan gold bugs
Apr 16, 2013
(Reuters) - When he woke up to news of a collapse in gold prices, Yujiro Yamashita, 63, made his way to Tokyo's posh Ginza district to buy the precious metal for the first time in 20 years.
Yamashita and other contrarian, individual Japanese investors understand that gold is a volatile investment, but say that buying the precious metal is better than the alternatives.
A week ago, as the yen-denominated price neared a new peak, jewelry stores and gold merchants across Japan saw long lines of mostly older Japanese looking to cash in on unwanted jewelry and other items that they had held for years.
But on Tuesday, buyers outnumbered sellers by a wide margin. At Ginza Tanaka, the headquarters shop of Tanaka Holdings, gold buyers waited for as long as three hours for a chance to complete a transaction.
Nearby at Ginza SGC, a gold merchant, buyers had taken about 6 kg (13 lbs) of gold home by early afternoon on Tuesday. In one case, a 60-year-old man, who asked not to be identified, walked out of the store with 500 grams of gold for about 2.2 million yen ($22,500).
Meanwhile, the Chinese and Thai, too, are rushing to buy gold as a consequence of the new, lower gold prices, with high sales volumes and shortages being widely reported.
So this is a fairly large story that can be summarized in basic Econ 101 terms: Supply, demand, and prices are all interrelated. Drop prices and demand increases, which then lowers supply.
In the U.S., all of the dealers I talk to are reporting huge demand and brisk buying. Silver in any form is quite hard to come by unless you want to pay premiums of 20%+ per ounce above spot price. Delivery times are 5 to 6 weeks out now – that's an unusual situation. If this recent slam was designed to scare people away from gold, it did not have that desired outcome; in fact, just the opposite.
To Make Matters Worse
There were numerous oddities in the timing of the gold and silver slam of the past week, and among them were two notable developments in the supply chain. Recall that the gold and silver carnage began on a Friday morning (4/12/13).
The Wednesday prior to that fateful Friday morning, one wall of the Bingham Canyon mine began to shift more rapidly. So they took personnel safety precautions, moved construction equipment out of the way, and prepared for a major ground slide event. At 9:30 PM on Wednesday, that wall gave way, sloughing tens of millions of cubic meters of earth into the operating pit:
Bingham Canyon produces some 400,000 ounces of gold and nearly 3 million ounces of silver on a yearly basis as byproducts of copper mining. It will be several years before the mine is back up to full operating capacity.
Normally, the news of a major mine being taken off line is a bullish sign for the associated commodity, but not in this case. On that same Wednesday gold and silver both went down in price. So the market completely discounted the news.
Coincidentally, also on Wednesday (4/10/13), the Chilean supreme court suspended Barrick Gold's Pascua Lama mine over a variety of environmental and social concerns, and that project got relegated to years of litigation. This is a huge mine project with probable reserves of over 18 million ounces of gold and 700 million ounces of silver. It is now completely halted and will remain so as lawyers battle things out in a process that most think will be several years long.
So current and future production of gold and silver took hits last week right before the big price drops. Perhaps this is just a very strange set of related events, but the incongruity and timing cause me to lean towards what Robert Di Niro said in the spy thriller Ronin: There is no such thing as coincidence.
At any rate, whatever the case may be coincidence or not, future supply of gold and silver will be lower than we thought as recently as Tuesday of last week.
Something Is Burning
There has been a lot of speculation about why gold was hit so hard. The theories range from it being "just one of those things" (i.e., normal market behavior) to an orchestrated attack to drive down the price of bullion. I happen to fall into that latter camp and summarized my thinking in why gold is being attacked in yesterday's report, This Gold Slam is a Massive Wealth Transfer from Our Pockets to the Banks.
An important question to ask in the face of such attacks is Qui bono? Who benefits from dropping the price so dramatically and breaking faith in the precious metals as a safe haven?
The Internet is swirling these days with rumors of a near inventory failure at the LBMA (London Bullion Market Association), a 'too big to fail bank' of a large sovereign country in Europe that's teetering, that needed protection against its derivative exposure. One of these could be true – perhaps all of them might be; I honestly don't know yet. We have imperfect vision into markets these days, and these are each developments that the central powers would be doing their utmost to shield from our view.
But there's certainly a lot of smoke in the air surrounding the precious metals, and as the adage goes, where there's smoke, there's fire.
In Part II: Why There May Be a Lot Less Gold Than We Realize, we explore a particularly interesting possible reason for the suppression of the precious metals. A recent report issued by Sprott Asset Management calculates that the U.S. has silently exported a massive amount of its gold reserves over the past two decades.
If accurate, it puts the long-term manipulation of the gold and silver markets into context. And it gives a reason for why breaking faith in the precious metals at this time would be an important objective.
Click here to read Part II of this report (free executive summary; enrollment required for full access).
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People around the world are not being fooled this time.
My suppliers are overrun with new orders and my Chinese
connection tells me people in China are waiting hours in line
to buy gold. Many gold dealers and jewelers have stop selling
at these levels.
I've realised, this was a smack-down to get possession off unallocated investors (the Sheeple of the PM world)....in a 55 Ton physical in-play move for those Sachs of shit at the JP Morgue.
I'm no engineer, but that sure didn't look like a safe OSHA pit to me.
Oh wait..., I am an engineer.
MSHA governs mines. They are 10x tougher than OSHA and would like nothing more than to fine this operator for the most ridiculous of infractions on a regular basis("Oh, you parked your car on level ground and didn't chock your wheels?" $600 violation, all day long).
Sachs is the first Ivy League economic I've heard come out and tell it the way it is.
===================
SR 76 Wall Street
Published on Apr 18, 2013
This is Professor Jeffrey Sachs of Columbia University speaking at the "Fixing the Banking System for Good" conference on April 17, 2013. This audio is absolutely explosive!
Please circulate this around to your friends. Let's see if we can get a big audience going all around the world. This is what you can do to help out.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7VOWnnEphjI&feature=player_embedded#at=307
Again, equities markets and many commodities dropped this week. Why believe that it was all about PMs?
"Many gold dealers and jewelers have stop selling
at these levels."
Obviously there is no connection between physical demand, especially
retail one, and perhaps BANK of JAPAN, begged for coordinated action to
flood the paper market with "liquidity" knocking spot prices to
"protect Japanese BOND outflow?" and cease Volatility?
You all saw this in action last night about 9 EST PM. I'm waiting for 8 PM
now to check, if they still like to intervene some more. Today I noticed
something different though, PM miners held up pretty well and finish strong,
which could be the end of f*cking manipulation for good, perhaps "they"'ve
also noticed that their own S&P/Russel get f*cked alone with Miners, which
wasn't there attention but arise as "side effect".. If no Intervention
by 8:30-9:00 EST PM today, GOLD will break 1400 (I hope) overnight.
Good luck.
I have no idea why but I almost want the opposite. I want gold to drop $150 tonight. I want several miners to announce they are shutting their doors tomorrow. I want physical demand to explode over the weekend and on Monday I want every single bullion dealer in th country to be out of any inventory at any price. The last thing I want to see is a slow rise in the price of gold.
FORGET THE SHORT SQUEEZE, THINK OF THE LONG SQUEEZE TO COME
I wish people would look beyond the immediate noise and see the long term path ahead.
For all those who whole-heartedly believe that this shake-down in PMs will go on until there are no weak to medium strength hands left, then the following ‘Logical Extrapolation’ must be given some thought.
For anyone to take this concept seriously, you must be able to put your doubts aside and believe that the next Boom will be in any physical asset of desire such as Artwork, but primarily Gold & Silver. Also, that the global economic slowdown will be long (all indicators are showing this), maybe 30 years.
As I’ve highlighted before. Once all the existing above ground stocks of Gold and Silver are safely hoarded by strong hands, and the only open market traded metal is newly mined/purified stock, we are faced with a simple psycho-mathematical play; a fear driven run to that which cannot be found readily but which must be out-bid for.
Annual Gold Stocks: 5.35B/oz @ 1.5% = 80.25M/oz/yr
Population: 6.97B
Lower Middle Class Pop: 2B
Upper Middle Class Pop: 200M
Assumptions
Average annual investment in Gold for Lower Mid Class Pop, $2,000. Average for Upper Mid Class Pop, $5,000. That’s an annual global figure of around $5 Trillion!
So, 80 Million Ounces per year may be chased by $5,000,000 Million, or, a 62,500:1 ratio.
This does not include the Ultra Wealthy who, in all likelihood, would manipulate Government to confiscate all ongoing Gold and Silver production to be funnelled into Banks and Companies/Corporations vital to the Global Economy. Nor does this include ANY commercial investment entities such as superannuation funds, investment and finance companies, hedge funds, or even Government Bond strategies etc.
Can you see where this is headed?
Even if only the 2.2 Billion people mentioned above were able to invest, that’s only 1.1309 grams of Gold, per person, per year (per-haps!).
The average investor would be looking at a staggering 27.5 years to attain just 1 ounce of Gold.
Know the difference between the game ahead and the plays right in front of you.
There is the long game ahead, and there are the 6 inches, know the difference! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WO4tIrjBDkk
Fight for every coin and bar in your stack because that's the difference between where you want to be and steerage.
Really, this is all common dog fuck....but it amazes me how many dogs got fucked last week.
TSP
This has been another announcement from Agenda21: Gold Class to the upper decks, Steerage Class to the lower decks.
OK, TwoShortPlanks, you have laid out rather well the Bull Case for gold from the demand side.
FOFOA lays out an intriguing notion: it will be the refusal of sellers to make gold available when the supply crunch comes. Hmm, how do you prepare for that? Front-run them! Buy physical gold now.
For me the bigger question is, can I afford not to?!
It's easy to speculate this or that, but in the end it's all about gambling a simple risk. Imagine buying it and it goes nowhere, or, imagine not buying it and it explodes.
It's all a matter of belief.
fonz, the owner of my Local Coin Shop (LCS) told me that gold mines HAVE already shut down. $1500 was a price level important to some of them.
I bought gold last Friday and today. In both cases, I was limited to ONE Gold Eagle.
Something is up, I have a very bad feeling about the whole damn deal.
http://www.forbes.com.mx/sites/no-es-oro-lo-que-brilla-los-especuladores...
I purchased more Silver this week, keep buying people you know it makes sense................................ Ohhh nearly forgot:: FUCK YOU BLYTHE.
gold and silver are coming back with a vengeance !! $1423 and $23.9 respectively at the moment.
Gosh, dagnabbit! Looks like the sale is over (Au=$1422/Toz, Ag=$23.68/Toz at this point in time)
Soon it'll be '10 at a time for a (Silver) dime.'
Yep, those fools are trying to manipulate the price so people will sell and all they have done is give the people cheap gold! ROFLMAO
A truly sweet revenge
You actually believe they aren't individually buying physical hand over fist after they crashed the paper price?
Seriously?
Oh wait, that would be an intended consequence.
Never mind.
They are now betting on physical investor tenacity.
When you realise you're always one move behind, you're already level pegged.
Huge slide at Kennecot (Bingham Canyon) that primarily mines Copper.
Amazing the Copper prices haven't gone up, and that was over a week ago.
400,000 Ounces of Gold and almost 3 Million ounces of incidental Silver is a lot.
When that factory in Thailand where a large part of all hard drives in the world are manufactured was flooded a few years ago hard drive prices went up sharply. I bet Jamie and Lloyd don't naked short sell hard drives.
We could go round and round on this subject...
+ 1, nice one Hulk!
High time to buy. Maybe it'll go down some more but more than likely it's going to get very scarce.
When does the rubber hit the road. People waiting on lines for hours....supplies drying up etc etc etc.
I thought price solves everything?
Unless this is some de facto price controls? I remember during Sandy my gas station was shut down. The guy had gas though. I remember him saying he would open up if he could charge what he wanted, which would have been around $25 a gallon....
I would not be surprised if the bullion banks were attempting to create a force majeure and close out the eft positions with cash. They KNOW they are exacerbating the supply issue. This is being done on purpose, for more than a few thousand JPM shorts and HSBC shorts.
The question is: what happens when force majeure is declared? What will governments do? What will happen to PM markets? They could cease to exist in majot money centers.
A lot of interesting questions for all of us.
sean as I have reached my limitations with this stuff. Why would the bullion banks attempt to create a force majeure?
You cut every re-hypothecation chain, gold stays with the present holders (and would become the premier capital asset), every paper holder gets cash or screwed or a haircut. You could blame supply issues on the hoarders. Most important, those with the most free capital would be the only ones with the ability to buy. Think depression era tactics.
It's hard to say why yet, but I think we will find out soon enough.
Man I would love to see the msm try to spin the narrative on that.
They are experts at spin. Just bought more silver. Price has not gone down that much and many maple leaves are out of stock.
So they can settle in cash.
Sure but the minute they settle in cash the game is over, right?
I don't think so. Paper buyers are just FIAT speculators. They're not interested in owning actual gold. They just buy paper gold as a way of placing a bet on inflation.
Parties who actually need physical use the physical markets, and maybe futures market as a hedge for the FIAT price (because, alas, their liabilities are FIAT-denominated).
The game is over when gold buyers can't get any gold via the normal channels, then they turn to futures to obtain gold from them, and fail.
Then the gold price skyrockets (regardless of what the paper price does).
Now THAT is a good article.
Cui (not "Qui") bono. Great article, more clues.
Btw, bought more ag yesterday afternoon. 5 minutes after I left (dealer called to tell me how lucky I was), premium went up from $3.50 to $4.25 on silver eagles (Philly area). The premium yesterday morning at LibertyCPM in Cali was ~$4.20.
I paid $5 over on ASE today. The place has been there forever and have never seen anything like it. The woman kept saying to herself "I wish everyone would not panic I just wish everyone would not panic". Said they have been getting calls from all over the country. Two boneheads were in there selling a kruggerand. When they saw me they could not understand why I was buying. It was a bizarro moment for both of us.
Funny. You knew why she was selling (mainstream news believer), but she didn't understand why you were buying.
It keeps getting more interesting. I just wonder (always, for the last few years), will there be this slow collapse over a few years (or much longer), or will one event (derivatives?) trigger a very quick cascading, domino crash of all the financial markets globally with ripple effects through, basically, life as we know it? (Bank holidays/closures, gas & food problems, etc).
she knew exactly why I was buying and she was still saying that. She was smart enough to see the writing on the wall, and she knows the consequences to society that accompany it.
Yes...
(I read your post and replied too quickly, meant to say "they" for the boneheads, not "she", who DID understand..)
My sanity stays intact, I sometimes think, only because of ZeroHedge articles & the comments containing so much important information that the people around me don't know or don't share, or won't accept (the more "educated", the more ignorant or in denial of where these events can/will lead?)... And the aggregate knowledge here of many readers, from an understanding of the Fed's creation to Smedley Butler to Prescott Bush et. al. to DDE's Farewell address to JFK, RFK, MLK, Malcolm X (etc) to 7/7 and 9/11 and the false wars on terror and the growing police state, all of which reflect these readers' takeaway about what to do now, now that these loosely (many not) connected events have brought us to where we are now with the global financial mess which has mathematically reached its endpoint. Run-on sentence aside, thank you.
I bought another gold coin today. Luxury shop here, aimed at big investors. Dealer told me they already run out of ingots, only the 1 oz coins were left. Chances are the next big client who comes will deplete the whole stock of coins.
This is the second dealer in my city I try, after I had to change because the first one was already depleted (they expected new stock in, like, 15 days).
Tulving.com is all sold out except for some 10 oz. silver bars. The cheapest on rounds and bars I found is silver50.com and gainesvillecoins.com (silver50 winning on price because of low/no shipping, Gainesville winning on selection). Now most dealers are reporting waits of 3-5 weeks to get products minted and out the door. Yeah, nothing to see here folks...just walk away. No record demand...
Texas Precious Metals sold out on 2013 Gold Buffalos, 2013 American Gold Eagles and 2013 American Silver Eagles.
Dont know; While in the headlines we read reports of India trying to slow sales by only allowing sales through registered dealers and small shops are not able to get registeration; at the sametime we have the BoE making new coins for the comming year specially for India at 1/10oz. Nothing makes sense these days...
It will just revive the 200 year old gold smuggling from the Emirates to Mumbaib if they push.
Smuggling is so institionalized in India they have their own sub caste.
I always used to take a few Krugers into India way back then,and get an instant 25% profit,
from the Jains in Bombay.Paid for my airfares, and expenses.
Gold Is Over – Just Like in 1976
http://www.caseyresearch.com/cdd/gold-over-just-1976
If gold hits $1,200 tens of thousands of gold bugs will "Back up the truck" and cause a world wide supply panic. To many people know the true cost of production now and the mystic London spot price will lose its grip and influence if price manipulations don't keep themselves in check.
The gold community wasn't connected by the internet in 1976 like it is today. Just as calendars are referenced to Christ by BC and AD soon they will be referenced to the internet by BI and AI. The communication of like minded individuals amongst themselves should not be discounted or its potential influence on world affairs underestimated. We are past the "Modern Era" and well in the "Future Era" where the old rules simply do not apply anymore. We are in uncharted territory; dragons be here.
"The communication of like minded individuals amongst themselves should not be discounted or its potential influence on world affairs underestimated."
Agreed, communication is everything via the internet.. until an emergency is declared and it can be turned off, "for our security".. CISPA passed in the House yesterday. We continue down a slippery slope, in baby steps.
Liked your BI/AI acronyms, makes perfect sense.
Ditto, the sentiments of this article. It is completely ABSURD, that events serving as prime movers for price are not reflected in the charts. The banksters are making the charts say the alfred e. neuman equivalent of "What, me worry"
No, what's absurd is anyone thinking that the charts are representative of any true market.
Infinite pieces of paper in a rigged casino trump landslides. Every. Fucking. Time.
After all, you didn't run out and go long at the Crimex today, did you? Or better yet, do so while standing for delivery?
Fucking charts.......
+100,000
I'm sick of chartisssssts
I thought bulltards were rabid dogs but goldtards have them all beat by miles.
Gold is just one more casino game replete with futures and options and derivatives and etfs and paper equivalents.
It is one of many casino commodities that have been corrupted by the criminal banksters who have turned a once useful exchange between producer and user into a parlor game where you fools swap spit whilst sitting in your underwear on your sofa.
It is just one more avenue of speculation embraced by the delusional masses who cling to ancient egyptian culture and california gold rush madness.
The lust for this marginally useful material has caused untold harm to the planet and the hapless servants who toil for it.
All of you who covet it should be as ashamed of yourself as if you had knowingly bought a pair of pants made with forced child labor in some asian sweat shop.
You should drown in shame for enabling yet another casino game, the destruction of untold miles of rivers, the poisoning of peoples across the globe and the willful ignorance you embolden each other with almost daily now.
The computer you're typing on was made by slaves in China too.
Dude, if your as environmental as you claim to be, then you should be against fiat money. Honest money does not allow reckless wrecking of the environment because malinvestment is quickly punished. Unfortunately with heaven, you have to have hell as well. If environment tards had half a brain, they could understand what reckless investment does to the planet.
Activist types (those that impose their ideals upon others) do not have to be bothered by the results of their own actions, as it's the thought that counts. That they could be guilty of anything never enters their minds, because they're too busy blaming everyone else.
I am against the current system. I'm for non debt based money issued by governments. This topic is about gold so that's what I commented on. If there is an article on another topic I'll tackle that too.
If you would like to discuss a free market-usury free system, I'm all ears.
We are all against the system here, that's why we come here.
did you seriously just call someone a 'tard' while mispelling 'you're'?
....or misspelling "mispelling", shurely not?
What, no complaints about agriculture? Chemical industries? Steel? Cosmetics? Flame retardent clothing and furniture? Building materials that off gas in your homes? Flouride? Chlorine? Aluninum in deodorants, foils? Plastics?
Whereas, gold can be mined in enviromentally friendly ways. Just need to get the big corporations out of the way. In fact, we may be better off if we just got rid of large corporations alltogether, but I don't hear anything about this in your rant.
Blaming gold for the avarice of others and their actions is just naive.
I'm with you on the paper scam, but to promote the idea that scarcity has no value, is nothing but putting your ignorance on display, as it wholly contradicts your critique of the banksters.
Oh, speaking of incoherence, the electronic device you just posted with was likely made in some Asian sweatshop too. I'm assuming this will be your last post as you'll have to destroy it now in order to feel better.
Many things are "scarce" but that doesn't make them valuable. As to the computer...if I knew that it was made in a sweat shop I would not buy it.
Just about every electronic device and article of clothing are manufactured, or partially manufactured, in Chinese factories that would be considered "sweat shop" here. What are you gonna do? Go naked and write letters?
So you're a prophet but can't even figure out where your computer is made?
Why do you waste so much time on this site? Shouldn't you be out protesting somewhere to save the planet's bio systems?
We all should. You too as your survival and your childrens survival depends upon an understanding most of you lack
Do you know where your internet connection device was made and under what conditions?
Excuse me, PUD, for being blunt, but SHUT THE FUCK UP YOU IGNORANT DOUCHE BAG.
You have absolutely no clue about what's being discussed here, which is, as far as I can tell, the value of REAL MONEY over paper fiat shit.
Oh, and go the fuck away, please.
Was that too over the top?
? No shit.
@ PUD:
Tell us how you really feel, Mr. Bernanke.
You only use your own homemade post-consumer toilet-paper?
Judge not, lest your own action/inactions be judged.
We all have our own confirmational bias which must realized.
i bet you would give me an ounce of gold for one sniff of my couch
dude, thats just nasty.
Traffic on my site quadrupled on the dip, and has maintained double or more traffic since. I can only assume they're looking to buy.
I wanted this domain badly...
jpmorgue.com (Commercial)
The domain that you requested, jpmorgue.com, has already been registered. Further details about this domain are not available at this time.
Fuck you JP Morgue!
I looks like it already expired. You should be able to wait in line and buy it
https://whois.loopia.se/jpmorgue.com
Personally, I'm waiting for www.corzinesucksballs.com ..but that's just me.
Tune in tonight for some fine Canadian investigative journalism.
TV, as it ought to be:
http://www.montrealgazette.com/entertainment/Brian+McKenna+explores+Secr...
This taster may be of interest:
http://podcast.cbc.ca/mp3/podcasts/current_20130416_22647.mp3
Enjoy all.
looks interesting. thanks
Just watched watched it and posted about it on another thread:
Totally OT but watching a CBC documentary on tv:
http://www.cbc.ca/doczone/episode/the-secret-world-of-gold.html
Not much new for people on this site - but great to hear Sprott comment on the gold (or not) in Fort Knox and Germany's request for repatriation on main stream television. Also includes a segment on silver manipulation. Ends with the reporter asking "So where's the gold? And who owns it?"
Looks like the episode isn't available outside Canada right now - if I find a link I'll post it.
Please do, I'm trying to find a CA proxy to watch it through. will post when I find one. Although I'm sure someone will youtube or torrent it.
Kind of like a "members only" sale by Khol's--get there and get it before all the good stuff and sizes are gone. hujel
I read the reuters article and noticed the name: Yamashita. Kept thinking of: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yamashita's_gold
Quis Bono? A number of candidates. Including anyone who wants to see the whole house of fiat cards collapse, by starting off with a gold bullion run. The smart people quietly heads for the Exits, before the stampede starts.
To paraphrase Jim Rickards... Fire or no fire: How many people do you have to see run out of the cinema, before you run out also? What's your pain/fear threshold, before you act?
And which opportunity would you rather not lose out on : (a) Gold going down to $1250 for some time, or (b) the bullion run not letting you buy more before the bullion run, that then turns into a monetary collapse of over-leveraged fiat currencies in deep Derivative-doodoo? Pick one.
: “The season is very hot for buying” with weddings and other auspicious dates coming up, Choksi said. “The decline will be positive for jewelry as there will be a pick-up in demand because affordability will increase. Volumes will increase.”
It's going to take more than purchaces of gold for Indian weddings to send the price of gold to historic highs again.
I don't know about that. It's one thing for Western central banks and Japan to dump currency to suppress the price. But will they have the nerve to dump their remaining metal to keep the game going? We'll see.
Are we all suposed to have forgotten that for the last year and a half nearly every day there was a Gold/Silver slam down around 10:00 am where the friends of the fed sold large quantitys of AU/AG puts to keep price down in comparison to the dollar? This left them with HUGE open contracts. Knowing that with the land slide at one mine and legal problems at another would cause supply to drop. This would cause an increse in prices. Seeing the writing on the wall those self same entities would realize a HUGE loss on that favor they did for the fed. As many of you will recall those puts were placed while market was trading in the $1650-$1700 range. The price had to be lower or they would have sustained massive losses when they closed their positions. It is estimated that the 500 tons of paper Gold short sold would have cost around 1 billion. That is a very cheap price to pay in order to close out their huge short positions, since the overall drop was $250 per ounce. All in all a very a very smart play. Gold is one of the few metrics of economic "reality" there has always been a direct correlation between Gold and the U.S. dollar. The spike in demand of physical will be monumental. They have played their hand, they are still short, they are fucked.
When you *sell* puts you are selling hop(ium) that the price will go down but betting that it will stay at or above the strike you are selling. Many sell front month (cash covered) puts and calls on equities to generate an income off the bankroll in their accounts.
"Robert Di Niro said in the spy thriller Ronin: There is no such thing as coincidence."
"The snake sheds its skin, slowly but surely, Grasshopper, as there is no such thing as random;
everything occurs spontaneously", verbewarp said.
Ho hum
After reading through all the prior posts on the scarcity of gold and silver metal, at least they are just scarce.
Try to go on line and buy any ammo.....it isn't scarce, it is unobtainable.
Let me know what you need. I may be able to offer assistance.
APPL stock has fallen twice as much as GLD from its high. just sayin...
Jobs is dead, and so is Apple's stock. The mystique of Apple died with him. Just like Microsoft, Apple will never again see the Highs of the past. It's all a steady drive down in value from here. When Apple TV finally launches it will ne a bust, and who in the hell under 40 wears a wrist watch these days? Get out and stay out, buy Gold and buy Silver !
It's impossible to price phisical gold, read:
http://www.forbes.com.mx/sites/no-es-oro-lo-que-brilla-los-especuladores/
Gold rush in Turkey:
http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/price-slump-sparks-rush-to-gold.aspx?pa...
In another link the Turkish mint said "we have never seen such a high demand in our history, even though we work in two shifts we cannot catch up the demand, we sold 40 tons of minted coins last year but this year just in 4 months we have reached total of 37.5 tons.".
http://finans.gazetevatan.com/portal/ISE/getDetailsStory.html?storyId=20...
Just about anyone smart enough to have money these days doesn't pay much attention to the old forms of media. Let the banksters words fall on deaf ears.
This may make things interesting for the supply of Eagles from the US Mint. Depending on the number of blanks they have in the supply chain, they might have trouble filling orders. I do believe that all coins minted by the US Mint must come from newly mined metal from WITHIN the US. They are not allowed to use gold or silver that is recycled or imported. At least that is the way it was, but rules are made for the government to ignore I guess. APMEX (American Precious Metals Exchange) is one of the few authorized US Eagle Distributors that also sell to the public, so their quantities in stock may potentially serve as an indication of any supply chain issues. Enter "99" into any quantity window at APMEX to see the current stock echo back.
CP while you are correct blanks must be sourced initially from U.S. production as they are able . When that source defaults they can source from other approved non U.S. suppliers. No way even the past couple of years they could have been sourced soley from U.S. production.
While I have to admint it has been a gut wretching and sleepless week watching the manipulation orgy manifest itself in the destruction of a lot of personal wealth. However I am now reconciled to the opinion to let it sit here for a week or so til May delivereies begin. By that time the physical supply will be beyond totally exhausted and the crooks bankrupt of any substantial physical available to deliver. Obviously, we aren't talking about the Banksters physical stashes although I would wish it so. But their ablity to coerce and manipulate the wealth from those that toiled honestly to obtain it forever significantly constrained. May the bastards rot in HELL!
They will not close Gold ETFs, otherwise Gold price will be 10X in no time. If you have paper golds, don't worry, Ben is on your side because they already wet their own pants in last few days.
All I'm doing is buying NG it's a no brainier ,John Paulson is right again. Nova gold is at a 700 million market cap with its asset of the dollan mine worth 20 billion. Hello no brainer!!
I was looking at GG and found it to be selling below book value. They will continue to be profitable at current production levels with gold over $874/ounce which I think is a decent margin of safety.
All this conspiracy bullshit is just that ... prices dropped because there were more sellers than buyers. Its that simple. Based on the rate of inflation since the dollar went off of the gold standard, it is currently valued somewhere between $600 and $800 an ounce. Anything above that is pure speculation on inflation. Selling is most likely motivated based on the absence of any evidence of inflation.
Lucious Cornholius, you managed to pack quite a series of non-sequiturds in that little rambling diatribe of nonsense.
Assertions are not facts.
Quite a load of diaperdump there. For one thing, the price of gold was artificially low when the US went off the gold standard in 1933 (as the Fed was already grossly inflating the US money supply well beyond the normal percentage which was backed by gold prior to 1913), and even more so when the US abrogated its Bretton Woods-agreed gold backing of the dollar in 1971, whichever case you choose. If one assumes that the 'real' price of gold should have been $50 and not $20.67 in 1933, then adjusting for the 97% loss of purchasing power of the US dollar since then would give a gold price of roughly $1500 today. Wow, what a coincidence!
So you believe that the current "true" of gold is somewhere between one-half and two-thirds of its mining production cost? Really? Can you explain how something can be worth less than its basic cost of production?
Setting aside the fact that all but the most brain-dead observers recognize the fact that the REAL and ongoing rate of "inflation" --- which should be called by its real name, "currency debasement" --- is at least 5%, and has been for every year for at least the past decade, you strain all credibility by suggesting that normal market behavior consists of dumping into the market, in one fell swoop, more than 500 tons of (paper) gold in one go, on a Friday evening, into remarkably thin market volume. If one wanted to lose as much money as possible in a sale, that is how they would go about doing it, but it would be completely irrational to do so. Since this one monstrous dumping was so completely far outside the realm of actual normal market activity, other motives for it are suggested --- or would be suggested to anyone who is not hopelessly brainwashed by a corrupt and criminal oligarchic system, and/or a lackey to the same.
I don't care if you agree or disagree, its only an opinion. Resorting to attacks only displays the insecurity of your own position in the matter so believe what you want, it is no concern of mine.
Your opinions are not worth the electrons misdirected and wasted in propagating them.
I suggest you convert all of your assets into the fiat currency of your choice and tightly hug it close to your heart, while dismissing all non-establishment talk of currency debasement, financial instability, monetary chaos, fiscal insanity, or political repression --- and you will thereby reap all the rewards you so richly deserve.
Prices don't lie. Commodities including food, energy and precious metals have all turned down since 2011. Houses are 40% cheaper than 6 years ago. Wages are stagnant at best. So tell me, besides credit induced bubbleland like stocks, higher ed, military hardware, healthcare and used cars, where is the inflation akak?
Lucius do you really believe that there is NO inflation in this economy? Have you been to the grocery store lately? Dude, the Fed is pumping 4 billion $$$ into the U.S. economy everyday! This is the very definition of inflation...an infinite supply of $$$ chasing a finite amount of goods and services. And it's going to bite us all in the ass sooner or later.
I wish you were right, but do you really want me to believe that you would rather hold a fistfull of U.S. dollars rather than 20 Morgan silver dollars, or better yet, a gold Eagle?
Not that you're interested, but here's an good article that provides a few plausible explanations about what's happening right under our noses.
http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article34606.htm
Money is credit so as long as TOTAL credit grows we will have inflation. The FED's monitizing is barely keeping credit growing because velocity is so low. Velocity is so low because people are choking on credit and don't want anymore. It's called pushing on a string and it means the FED's policies are ineffective. They will not beat deflation because if they go Zimbabwe that will stoke inflation and collapse the bond market. A collapsing bond market will ruin the USG's ability to fund itself. It is suicidal. Therefore, it is not going to happen. The USG, in order to preserve itself, will choose a slow, decades long deflation over the alternative. Look at Japan.
Welfare sheep and government workers will be rewarded for turning in PM holders after possesion is banned. Don't trust thy neighbor, and put it away until after the storm.
We've got at least another decade of deflation to go before all of the overhead supply is washed out of the system. Until Real estate drops another 30%, bankruptcies and debt writeoffs, loss of jobs, foreclosures, less consumer spending works it's way through, the stock market Dow will see 3600 and gold will hit 750.
All you stackers will get creamed. Sure inflation is coming, but not any time soon.
Middle ground:
I'm guessing that the folks that mess with paper gold forced the price down a bit to swipe a few bucks from the other folks that mess with paper gold. All the stars lined up and the paper people caused a drop in paper markets larger than that club of gentlemen really should have. They surely recognize this fact. Now the plebs are awake and swiping all the real stuff. I expect a rapid recovery in the price of paper gold so that the ability to HFT gold does not all get removed from their sphere of influence by gold bugs, Indians and rouge central bankers...
http://www.cbc.ca/player/Shows/ID/2380466502/?sort=MostRecent
Doc Zone | Season 2012-13, Episode 25 | Apr 18, 2013 | 43:20
The Secret World of Gold
A look at the power and politics of gold. Where is the gold and who really owns it?
Thoughts from the Bearwagon:
We're getting swamped with negative analyzings of goldprices. I think there are a few reasons to be optimistic, that gold, at least in the middle to long run, remains attractive.
Bank of japan is determined to double the money-supply until 2014 and to buy bonds for roughly 75 billion dollar each month. Add to this the bond purchases of the FED at 85 billion $ monthly, and this two countries alone will boost money-supply by about 2 trillion $ over the year. If there is a bubble anywhere, it is here. This indicates a rise in the price of gold up to 1800 $ - considerably more than Sacksman Golds target of 1545 $.
Mainly european central banks have sold parts of their gold-holdings since the year 2000, the BoE being ahead of all others. In 2010 there were 77 metric tons bought by central banks, in 2011 it were 457 tons, and last year 530 tons were sold. It were central banks of emerging markets and from southeast asia that bought this gold. The asian part of the world will be determining the price of gold to a great degree. Who knows what the chinese are up to, knows where gold will go. And of course they all are interested in buying at a discount.
Certain statistics show a correlation between creation of money by central banks and the price of gold. According to that, one trillion dollars in new created money equals a rise in the price of gold by roughly 210 $. (Analysis by "Sprott Asset Management").
During the first quarter of this year the balance of these central banks shrinked by 415 billion $, the lion's share being the part of the ECB at 370 billion. Consequently the goldprice dropped by circa 100 $. Which leads directly back to the aforementioned prices north of 1800 $ in the longer run.
Cyprus has showed that deposits in a bank are not save, depositors have noted very well. Most states and their banking sectors are bust, period. Who knows this, would be well advised to invest some of his wealth in gold. Which, of course, should rise the price.
Sentiment looks to me seemingly sceptical. This could mean that a lot of people are still short gold. If the goldprice gets going, they will need to run.
And last, but not least, there seems to be only around one % of all fixed capital invested in gold. On the other hand 99 % don't care for gold at all. So, after 12 years of "abstinence", some could ask themselves, if not gold, with its rise of more than 800 % over this time beating all other assets, would be a viable investment.
This endgame of bubbles in national debts, and along with them probably in the whole global monetary system, could propel the price of gold to unknown heights. Eventually.
So, in short: Gold can fall further - rise it must, eventually.
Just the two cents of a man who's gold-holdings can easily be measured in the gram range. :)
if you want to check one battle between locals and Gold mining companies, check #skouries in Greece where the locals are fighting the government too.
for those who still believe gold is going up - read:
a) floyd norris's column in today's nyt
b) www.businessinsider.com/why-are-gold-prices-dropping-2013-4
Chris, here is a link to a video you may find interesting.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=STU1mol7kAI
He says Thais are flooding gold shops (take a look at the video), ATM machines are out of money in Yaowarat (gold district) because so many people have gone there to get paper notes to buy gold, and Malaysians are coming across the border into Thailand to buy gold.