This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.

Philly Fed Is Latest Economic Miss: Number of Employees Dumps, Inventories Plunge

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Hardly anyone will be surprised to learn that moments ago we just got the latest disappointing economic indicator for an economy that is clearly accelerating in its deterioration. As expected, the April Philly Fed was the latest economic indicator miss, printing at 1.3, down from last month's 2.0, and below expectations of am increase to 3.0. And while the key New Orders reverted back into negative territory after one brief month positive, it was the other components of the Index that a far more pronounced deterioration, namely the Number of Employees which dumped from 2.7 to -6.8, the biggest drop since May 2012, boding ill for the upcoming April NFP number, as well as the Inventories which plunged from 0.0 to -22.2, which means downward Q1 GDP revisions will be forthcoming from every side momentarily as the Wall Street lemmings are forced to resume trimming their exuberance once more just like in 2012... and 2011... and 2010.

From the report:

The survey’s broadest measure of manufacturing conditions, the diffusion index of current activity, was 1.3, just slightly lower than the reading of 2.0 in March (see Chart). The number of firms reporting increased activity this month (22 percent) edged out those reporting decreased activity (21 percent). The demand for manufactured goods remained weak, with the current new orders index declining from 0.5 to -1.0. The shipments index showed continued improvement, however: The index remained positive and edged six points higher, to 9.1, its highest reading in four months. Nearly 28 percent of the firms reported an increase in shipments; 19 percent reported a decrease.

 

Firms reported a notable decrease in inventories this month: The current inventories index fell from zero to -22.2. Labor market conditions showed continued signs of weakness, with indexes suggesting lower employment overall. The employment index decreased from 2.7 in March to -6.8 this month, its first negative reading in three months. The percentage of firms reporting employment decreases (17 percent) exceeded the percentage reporting increases (10 percent). The workweek index remained negative for the fourth consecutive month.

And the components:

 

- advertisements -

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Thu, 04/18/2013 - 10:17 | 3466210 bnbdnb
bnbdnb's picture

QE.IS.A.FAILURE.

Thu, 04/18/2013 - 10:21 | 3466222 FieldingMellish
FieldingMellish's picture

Correct... thus... MOAR QE!

Thu, 04/18/2013 - 10:31 | 3466274 Cursive
Cursive's picture

@FieldingMellish

Keep digging!

Thu, 04/18/2013 - 10:55 | 3466428 Stoploss
Stoploss's picture

Looking a little deflationary there.

Thu, 04/18/2013 - 10:23 | 3466231 toys for tits
toys for tits's picture

 

 

 

The current inventories index fell from zero to -22.2.

The economy goes from just-in-time delivery to we'll-get-it-there-eventually delivery.

Green chutes.

Thu, 04/18/2013 - 10:44 | 3466366 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

Yes and delivery times are up...

Thu, 04/18/2013 - 11:25 | 3466576 bdc63
bdc63's picture

I have a bit of antidotal evidence on this one.

We are remodeling a kitchen.  I am absolutely shocked on the lead times I'm getting on EVERYTHING -- lighting, cabinet hardware, sinks, faucets .... I'm starting to wonder if they are making the stuff to order.  This is stuff that probably would have been "in stock" a couple of years back, and now we're getting 4 -6 -8 week delivery times quoted.

On the other hand, the service trades that we are calling out are all saying "I can stop by this afternoon to give you a quote on that if you like ..."

Thu, 04/18/2013 - 12:58 | 3467014 dontgoforit
dontgoforit's picture

We got 3 quotes within 2 days of asking for some outside painting and a few board replacements.

Thu, 04/18/2013 - 10:27 | 3466256 B2u
B2u's picture

QE was only meant to save big banks and their bonuses.  It has worked.  The rest of us get cake (Twinkies)...just let us eat.

Thu, 04/18/2013 - 10:35 | 3466309 MiltonFriedmans...
MiltonFriedmansNightmare's picture

Yes, QE is and has been a rip-roaring success (assuming you recognize it's true intent).

Thu, 04/18/2013 - 10:53 | 3466397 Jekyll_n_Hyde_Island
Jekyll_n_Hyde_Island's picture

  "[...]Qu’ils mangent de la brioche."

 

  -- Jean-Jacques Rosseau/Queen Marie Antoinette.

 

  Classic disconnect of parliamnet/nepotistic leadership and the citizen.  Good QE analogy B2u.

Thu, 04/18/2013 - 11:21 | 3466574 yogibear
yogibear's picture

When is the fed going to learn a bunch of printed cash will do anything for the real economy.

Double the QE and it will lead to  a greater decline once it's all used.

Right now it's being used to encourage more debt and a larger stock market bubble.

The 20 somethings are already saturated with debt. Pulling future consumption to the present.

 

Thu, 04/18/2013 - 12:56 | 3467009 dontgoforit
dontgoforit's picture

Or as they say on the Grand Strand: "What Kind of Fool do You Think I Am?"

Thu, 04/18/2013 - 10:17 | 3466211 HelluvaEngineer
HelluvaEngineer's picture

So who knew about this an hour ago?

Thu, 04/18/2013 - 10:18 | 3466215 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

I am on the mailing list and they sent me a 50% discount on snuggies.

Thu, 04/18/2013 - 10:18 | 3466212 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

The Bernank needs an excuse to print moar. The numbers and the hit on metals is giving him cover.

Thu, 04/18/2013 - 10:20 | 3466217 Bearwagon
Bearwagon's picture

Maybe we should take some cover, too?

Thu, 04/18/2013 - 10:30 | 3466267 Kaiser Sousa
Kaiser Sousa's picture

im jumping in here to share this with ya'll...

i beleive this to be worthwhile...

remember last May and step up...

resistance is not futile...

I hope you join me and this cause...

it is in the end about genuine freedom for all...we must resist the rule of the sociopath bankers.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QGZ5f1G1Ep0

Thu, 04/18/2013 - 10:42 | 3466344 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

Once more, this time with FEELING!:  This is why it's called a liquidity trap.  Easy to get into, hard to get out of.

Their only tool is a hammer.  And they're beating on a lot of screws, bolts, clevis pins and air condition compressors with it.

Thu, 04/18/2013 - 11:09 | 3466520 akarc
akarc's picture

This would work if enough interest can be generated. Gonna try  on this end

Thu, 04/18/2013 - 10:19 | 3466213 madbraz
madbraz's picture

The Fed's email distribution list probably got a hold of this news yesterday, or even earlier.  Not that this number is of real value, it is also fabricated by the Fed so it is probably much worse.

 

 

Thu, 04/18/2013 - 10:21 | 3466223 Rayfp65
Rayfp65's picture

Don't worry so much!! this is just temporary, the 2nd half of "one of these years" looks promising!!!

Thu, 04/18/2013 - 10:30 | 3466243 Ying-Yang
Ying-Yang's picture

MDB... where for art thou wisdom on this story?

Thu, 04/18/2013 - 10:26 | 3466248 Dr. Venkman
Dr. Venkman's picture

I hear the ports in Chester are booming. Get in now while property is cheap.

Thu, 04/18/2013 - 10:31 | 3466258 earleflorida
earleflorida's picture

*OT:  "Special Travel Benefits for Saudi's a Slap in the Face" 3/20/13 [*Arabs can fly into U.S. bypassing Airport Security]

http://www.investigativeproject.org/3947/special-travel-benefit-for-saudis-a-slap-in-the-face

Why! Why is obi having a special get out of jail conference/agreement with saudi's as i type-- if not the boston bomber's are of the same saudi ilk of 911???

sorry for the interruption  

Thu, 04/18/2013 - 10:32 | 3466277 Ying-Yang
Ying-Yang's picture

Golden Rule....

"He who hath the GOLD.. rules!" always the case

Thu, 04/18/2013 - 10:32 | 3466281 Cursive
Cursive's picture

Paging Mark Zandi....

Thu, 04/18/2013 - 10:32 | 3466283 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Bullish for QE4; FED to buy fleets of GM vehicles.

Hell, at $85 Billion a month they could probably buy all the inventory.

Better yet, send everyone who filed a tax return $3,000 tax free every month.

Talk about stimulus to a 70% consumer driven economy!

C'Mon Ben, grow a set, and send me my check.

Why not?

Thu, 04/18/2013 - 10:40 | 3466339 the not so migh...
the not so mighty maximiza's picture

you got my vote

Thu, 04/18/2013 - 10:33 | 3466286 NEOSERF
NEOSERF's picture

Considering Philly officials were meeting with Wall St about bond issues given that Philly is essentially bankrupt, can't imagine I would be hiring into that mess if I were a small business in PA.

Thu, 04/18/2013 - 10:38 | 3466318 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

Yeah, at least that bad.  I live NEAR Philly but I don't go in there.  If I need something in Philly I send my buddy, Snake Pliskin.

Philly just needs an ill-advised incinerator project and they'll be good to go.

Thu, 04/18/2013 - 13:03 | 3467041 dontgoforit
dontgoforit's picture

Made me LOL - thanks, needed it!

Thu, 04/18/2013 - 10:33 | 3466289 Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

I don't want to jack this thread but there is word out there that Obama is going to deport one of the Saudi's in the Boston massacre this coming Tuesday. Sounds as if it is one of the guys in the hospital right now. Things just keep getting worse.

Thu, 04/18/2013 - 10:36 | 3466310 madcows
madcows's picture

Yeah, I read that.  It's absolutely disgusting.  Our own government is letting bombers or bombing supporters go.  To me, that's the equivalent of aiding and abetting in a getaway.  Our government is assisting the bombers in escaping

Thu, 04/18/2013 - 10:35 | 3466308 Boondocker
Boondocker's picture

Time to work....got to buy moar beans and metals(gold silver lead and brass)....just trying to do my part.....and another boat....they keep sinking when i put my metals in them....

Thu, 04/18/2013 - 10:36 | 3466316 BullyBearish
BullyBearish's picture

The PPT is out in force defending the S&P 50-day...their best tool: short squeeze.  DON'T BTFD!!!!  STFR (SHORT The F&*ing Ramp)

Thu, 04/18/2013 - 10:38 | 3466321 Ban KKiller
Ban KKiller's picture

Garden is going well with four harvests so far. Chickens are laying. Oh yeah, Fuck you Bernanke. 

MY indicators are up... as long as I have water. 

Thu, 04/18/2013 - 10:43 | 3466357 Curt W
Curt W's picture

Don't worry it is just a one-time drop due to a snowstorm in Kansas

Thu, 04/18/2013 - 10:51 | 3466363 Jekyll_n_Hyde_Island
Jekyll_n_Hyde_Island's picture

  "Just pulled into Philly on the team bus -- what a dump.  Let's get the W and get the hell out of here."

 

  Tweet from NY Giants player 2011

Thu, 04/18/2013 - 10:45 | 3466369 saints51
saints51's picture

Everything is a miss. Time to pump this mother fucker up again to punish anyone placing a sell order.

Thu, 04/18/2013 - 10:46 | 3466372 shermacman
shermacman's picture

Thankfully it will soon be Recovery Summer! Then the green chutes will grow into mighty trees of economic prosperity.
(signed) 
Chaunce the Gardener 

Thu, 04/18/2013 - 13:05 | 3467052 dontgoforit
dontgoforit's picture

Paging Mr. Sellers; a Mister Kosinski seeks you.  Ah, in the spring...

Thu, 04/18/2013 - 10:47 | 3466377 Flaming Ferrari
Flaming Ferrari's picture

And ES is off 0.3%. Buy 1540, sell 1565 machines working at full speed defending the maginot.

ES is no longer a market worth trading. DAX, FTSE etc all much more interesting.

Thu, 04/18/2013 - 12:15 | 3466830 Trampy
Trampy's picture

TF and NQ can be good trading.

Thu, 04/18/2013 - 10:59 | 3466453 orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

And when you combine the shit Philly Fed report with downgrade in German debt by Fitch with the Dow a whopping 7 points, it all makes sense.

 

The Dow Jones Industrial Casino marches on.

Thu, 04/18/2013 - 11:17 | 3466528 foodstampbarry
foodstampbarry's picture

 Clearly a result of Sandy Hook, the snow fall in China and the latest aurora borealis in Peru.

Thu, 04/18/2013 - 13:03 | 3467036 bdub2
bdub2's picture

Also, not bad "feedback" to the author of the Leave Ben Alone----he is the Fed Chief! little bitch that prompted author's "Cheech Marin reply.  It is as follows:

 

"What a load of crap you just vomited up. You're nothing more than a weaselly coward that lives his life all in gray, bouncing to and fro with whatever particular unethical dunce he's found himself enamored of lately. You disguise your inability to differentiate right from wrong in a cloak made from self-importance and academic tripe and you hide the fact that you are weak by calling those who aren't afraid to call a duck a duck rigid and mellow dramatic. Crouch down and lick the hand that feeds you..."

 

Krugman. that means you. 

Thu, 04/18/2013 - 13:07 | 3467060 dontgoforit
dontgoforit's picture

moral relativism

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!