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US Equities Slump To Worst Week In 5 Months
This week saw the largest plunge in US macro data in 11 weeks pushing us back towards the lowest levels since August. Fundamentals (macro and also micro- earnings) did have some impact - with stocks having their worst week in 5 months (but the S&P managed to bounce off its 50DMA) and despite carnage in its largest components, the Dow gained 10 points (of which -150 points were from IBM, GE, and MCD). Today saw a small recovery bounce amid low volumes driven by JPY weakness (testing back up toward 100 post G-20 silliness) and VIX compression as macro overlays were lifted and positions reduced. Gold gained on the day but silver lagged ending the week -5.5% and -11% respectively, with the USD gaining 0.77% on the week (as JPY weakened almost 400 pips off its Monday night highs). Treasuries traded in a 4-6bps range all week (and flow was quiet) but the long-end ended lower in yield by 2-4bps.
The S&P's worst week in 5 months, and nearly its worst since June...
but it seems like today was about bringing the NASDAQ and Trannies back in line off the S&P all-time highs last week...
Gold caps it worst 2-week run since 2008 but manages to close above the magical $1400 level...
US macro rolled over - with its worst week in 11 weeks...
JPY had quite a week - a 4 handle roundtrip...
Market breadth was very weak today and just like yesterday, was unsupported in general by other risk-assets...seemingly US equities enjoyed the company of the Europeans once again...
HYG tumbled very abruptly into the close also.
and market breadth was very weak... and the indices rolled over after the cash close..
Charts: Bloomberg and Capital Context
Congratulations to Capital Context's Dave Klein for winning the NAAIM's Wagner Prize for active portfolio management.
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We need a real crash.
Hopefully next week will be better.
Stocks are going much lower and gold is going to surge back higher. The demand for physical at the moment is insane.
http://sprottmoneyblog.com/
Demand for pysical has been insane for four years, but it hasn't done much for the paper price.
Just when you think stocks are finanly going to reflect reality, futures jump 5% overnight and the market rallies 15% in a week.
Such is the market when 99% of the volume is one guy at the Fed with a giant panic buy button.
Look at the chart of HYG today. Monday should be interesting to say the least. http://www.tradingvix.com/2013/04/market-wrap-4192013.html
Check out the last 6 candles on the S&P...looks like we'll be gaining 5% next week.
BS ramp as usual.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4wgbpGF9kT0
The Secret World Of Gold Part 1
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5OEMBzbINBI
The Secret World Of Gold Part 2
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hZzlz8GlX-c
The Secret World Of Gold Part 3
http://articles.marketwatch.com/2013-04-18/economy/38630953_1_federal-re...
Fed's Kocherlakota: Low rates may last 5-10 years
April 18, 2013
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Financial market conditions requiring the Federal Reserve to keep rates unusually low may persist for the next five to 10 years, said Narayana Kocherlakota, the president of the Minneapolis Fed Bank on Thursday. This low-rate environment, and Fed policy, in turn, can be expected to "be associated with financial market phenomena that are seen as signifying instability," such as inflated asset prices, high asset return volatility and heightened merger activity, Kocherlakota said, in a speech at the Levy Economics Institute of Bard College. This instability is best addressed through effective supervision and regulation, Kocherlakota said. However, the Fed may have to confront the dilemma of whether to raise rates to reduce the risks of a financial crisis with the certainty that any tightening would lead to lower employment and prices, he said. The Fed is in a better position to address this challenge than it was in 2007, he said.
http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/breakout/stocks-set-scary-may-says-nenner-151635217.html
It's been so long since the stock market has done anything except inch higher, making it easy to lose sight of the big picture for stocks. The reality is, the S&P 500 is less than 3% off it's all time highs. Regardless of whether you think this is a buying opportunity or the beginning of the end of the rally, there's still time for traders to adjust their portfolios.
Count Charles Nenner, founder of the Charles Nenner Research Center, as someone who thinks the sell-off has only just begun. In the attached video, Nenner explains that those buying now in anticipation of an improving economy have missed the bus by four years. Good news gets bought once by the smart money, he says. Expectations that the macro picture will improve were a bullish catalyst in 2009. Now it's time to sell the news.
Nenner says his firm took off all of its equity exposure when the S&P was at 1,510 specifically so they "wouldn't have to deal with all this mess." He bases his work on cycles of time and price. From that perspective he says stocks are going to be forming a top in late April. Any market close more than a couple points below 1,544 on the S&P 500 would be an indication to him the market is ready to roll over in a big way. As of mid-day Friday, stocks are bouncing between 1,540 and 1,550; perilously close to what Nenner would consider a technical breakdown.
What happens then?
"I think the beginning of May it starts to get scary," says Nenner. Most people would argue it's plenty frightening already, both in and out of the stock market.
http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/michael-santoli/gust-deflation-stirs-skittish-stock-market-163404101.html
Listen to the stock market the past couple of weeks and you’ll hear the hiss of deflation, of air leaking out of the 2013 rally as concerns build about downward pressure on economic growth, prices and corporate profit potential.
While the Standard & Poor’s 500 index ebbed 3.5% from its recent all-time high to Thursday’s close, this represents a sub-surface correction among stocks exposed to global economic momentum finally roiling the market’s surface. The index’s energy and basic-materials sectors are each down more than 5% in the past week.
Gold, suffering from dimming concern about systemic financial risk as well as cooling inflation worry, is down more than 20% from its all-time high and down 10% since April 11. Crude oil is off 15% since February and lumber futures are lower by 10% in a month.
The 10-year Treasury yield is near 1.70%, down steeply from 2.05% five weeks ago. An auction Thursday of Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, or TIPS, which compensate investors for future inflation, drew the weakest bidding interest in five years, suggesting the markets have little fear that inflation will be a major concern in coming years.
Honey VXX doesnt give a shit
that's cuz honey VXX is a honeytrap.
Effective Federal Funds Rate from 1954 to 2013:
http://www.scribd.com/doc/136924220/Effective-Federal-Funds-Rate-from-1954-to-2013-Federal-Reserve
Sold my Abenomics en Bernakes. Looking at comex inventories and G20 serial. Holding gold and silver coins. Having a few beers, reading ZH, knowing what the future of derivatives will look like. So, what is there to say. Have a nice weekend!
THE ALMIGHTY DOW ONCE AGAIN GIVES THE WORLD WHAT IT NEEDS AFTER A GRIM WEEK: GREEEEEEENNNNNN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
The truth is the market is so disconnected from reality that there is no real reason why it goes up and down on any given day.
A stock that lost 10% in a day will most likely gain back 12% the next day only to fall 8% the day after that. What in real world business could cause that?
If earnings expectations were +$1.28 three weeks ago, but last week expectations were dropped to +$1.09, and the company hit $1.12, THAT WASN'T A BEAT!!!! Everything that made the $1.12 was already on the books when the expectation was $1.28.
Oil goes up or down 5% in a day, why? Syria again? Euro/USD moving .001? There might be a hurricane in four months?
Every chart shows just one thing, a complete joke. Spoken by the worst comedian of all time, Ben Bernanke.
This article was total garbage. The true facts...
* This Week's Most Popular Markets * DJIA 14547.51 -51.69 Nasdaq 3206.06 -10.43 S&P 500 1555.25 + 2.89 Rus 2000 912.50 + 5.32 DJTA 6034.14 + 124.28 S&P 400 1121.30 + 281.14Notice nobody comments on the economic stories anymore. Somebody has to blow up something and be chased now to be news.
Sooner or later even the economic story will end in a violent explosion..........
According to Citi Research:
Summary
We are generally very hesitant to pay much attention to moves in the gold market. However, when large moves in this market are relatively coincident with large moves in TIPS breakeven levels – it bears watching. We think that this may be a symptom of a Fed that is appearing more likely to begin tapering QE earlier into the recovery than was previously expected – even if the initial Fed Funds hike date remains well in the future. We are positioned in Treasury curve steepeners to take advantage of this view.
BEWARE OF MONEX METALS! THEIR "EXPERTS" DONT KNOW SILVER BULLION FROM SOUP BULLION, AND THEY WILL LEAD YOU TO RUIN. NEXT STEP BANKRUPTCY, THNX