This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
What Is Going On In US Equity Markets Today?
US equity indices are in their own little world of glee today. Treasuries, credit, FX markets, swaps, commodities are not playing along. So what is going on? These two charts may help to explain...
It appears earlier in the week - when things got a little bit turbo - everyone and his pet rabbit Dave piled into macro overlays - i.e bought index protection with both hands and feet. This makes sense - market was moving fast, grab the most-liquid hedge you can find and hold on...
but today, that 'protection' is being unwound - and in doing so it is providing some impetus to the indices to move higher (lots of mechanics to why from market-maker algos managing deltas to momentum algos picking up the VIX signal)...
But underlying all this index progression - individual stocks are being sold in size as the following indicator market breadth indicates...
So, it appears, between IBM and GE, managers are nervous and instead of hedging are now unwinding hedges and cutting real exposure into this strength.
Certainly doesn't seem sustainable..
»
- 22110 reads
- Printer-friendly version
- Send to friend
- advertisements -
Flat-lined?
Something evil this way cometh.
Hold onto your hats. The roller coaster may be about to leave the gate.
Benny's helicopter may need to be exchanged for a friggin rocket ship.
If you are a trader, watch this:
Long-term Bear Trend Forming 04/18/2013
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lD6ZRiYscxg
Fuck you bears.
xoxo
Ben
Effective Federal Funds Rate from 1954 to 2013:
http://www.scribd.com/doc/136924220/Effective-Federal-Funds-Rate-from-1954-to-2013-Federal-Reserve
Been looking for a good chart for this. Shows how the eCONomy is on it's death bed. Grabbed some extra popcorn, this goat rodeo is about to kick it up a notch.
That's what happens when everybody and their dog is up to their eyeballs in debt. Just wait for all the debt repudiation to sweep across the world... It's gonna be a barrel of laughs.
Uhm, I would be very careful about buying stocks now. Too much appears to be going on "behind the curtains" now. I would be suspicious.
It's even hard to buy gold now.
Perhaps that is why Obama, very recently, quietly signed a law that gutted the previous Congressional insider trading ban.
I missed that one. One more piece of crap in a rotten system.
Beware.
Here ia link to some information regarding that. http://reason.com/24-7/2013/04/17/congress-changes-insider-trading-rules-f
I don't even recal seeing this on ZH either, but then again I have been drinking heavier these days.
It was here.
CONgress exempted everybody but you and me.
And here I thought there was something in the Constitution that specifially prohibited exempting CONgress from laws!
Oh contrair, Dr. Dick..., I believe they and Jesse were all over this.
I'm with you on the drinking...
Hate to say it but I think the 19 year old is dead already..and they lockdowned the entire town because they wanna search for more potential terrorists there...or they just want to make it a point that in the near future, when the fuckin FBI enters your house without a warrant, they are doing it all for your safety and security.
local long time dealer out of all gold and silver bullion for almost a week now.
silver next Tuesday , bars only. ....tick tick tick
DoChen, I am with you bro ... I can smell a lot of activity behind the curtains. With gold plunging this week, then the Boston distraction, etc. Something big
may be about to happen and only the "selected few" know about it. It may prove not to be the case, but I am certainly not buying any risk assets
nowadays: not by a mile.
True, but can you say it's safe to sit on cash? That's fucked up too.
Non Passaran, your avatar says it all.
10% or more of anyone's wealth should be in gold.
When the global debt repudiation happens I'm:
1. keeping my gold, silver and bitcoins and looking to BTFD,
2. putting almost all of the rest in physical cash (preferably $US) in the mattress (and not in the banks, Cypress will happen everywhere and I want to see the lines forming as I'm walking out), pre-paid credit cards with small balances (any other ideas out there?) to ensure return of capital
3. gambling with a small amount on long-term out-of-the-money puts and leveraged inverse ETFs on everything else; typical market investments will experience significant capital losses.
According to Duke University:
http://www.scribd.com/doc/136922918/The-Golden-Dilemma-Duke-University
The Golden Dilemma
Gold objects have existed for thousands of years but for many investors gold has only recently become a tradable investment opportunity. Gold has been described as an inflation hedge, a "golden constant", with a long run real return of zero. Yet over 1, 5, 10, 15 and 20 year investment horizons the variation in the nominal and real returns of gold has not been driven by realized inflation. The real price of gold is currently high compared to history. In the past, when the real price of gold was above average, subsequent real gold returns have been below average. Given this situation is it time to explore "this time is different" rationalizations? We show that new mined supply is surprisingly unresponsive to prices. In addition, authoritative estimates suggest that about three quarters of the achievable world supply of gold has already been mined. On the demand side, we focus on the official gold holdings of many countries. If prominent emerging markets increase their gold holdings to average per capita or per GDP holdings of developed countries, the real price of gold may rise even further from today’s elevated levels. As a result investors in gold face a daunting dilemma: 1) embrace a view that "those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it", there is a "golden constant" and the purchasing power of gold is likely to fall or 2) embrace a view that "this time is different" and the "golden constant" is dead.
IF I had 50K in 1973, I'd have 50K today. I'd have nothing if I had it in Kodak, Pets.com and numerous otther companies that went under. If I invested in gold to maintain my purchasing power, I'd have 67,200,000. Tell Duke Univ. to go fuck itself. You do the same. If they did not water down money via QE, I may listen. The market is rife for another take down/wealth transfer. My parents lost half of their value between 2006-2009 and are just now starting to get back into the black. Had they cashed out and invested in gold, they would be way up. I think this little "academic" paper is worth the paper it's printed on.
I know shit about gold so take my thoughts with many salt grains, but if there have been bubbles created everywhere over the last few decades and if some of that 'bubble wealth' goes into gold, would not that also mean that gold could also be overpriced and bubble-like?
As much as I understand gold as a store of wealth and all that, I also do not underestimate the capacity of humans to create bubble out of everything... even tulips for god's sake.
To go along with your thought experiment, how much would your 50K be today if you invested in Exxon? ;)
i upvoted you too. I downvoted me.
Not at 1100 just to bring the stuff from the ground at cost. Also, if it were "bubble like" and over-priced why are all phyz dealers basically out of the stuff. It is a steal at these levels and you are seeing the first signs of decoupling between the price of paper and the actual stuff. It was bubblelicious at 1900, however. Exxon would have been a great deal. The fact is this. Certain large caps are very good like energy and staples. A balanced portfolio should have all of these things, but commodities at about 10-20% is just common sense. Good question.
You couldn't be more correct. I have worked with a public gold mining company for ten years. Who knows what the price will do over the short term. What I can tell you on a fundamental basis is that gold is actually too CHEAP and it is killing miners. Due to increased depths, lower grades, political instability, rising commodity costs, rising labor costs, miners are pulling back. You see virtually no M&A at all in the entire industry. I know of several juniors who have confirmed reserves of 2-3 million ounces at fairly shallow depths and good grades who are trading at 10 mill market caps. No one questions the viability of their projects and they have good balance sheets. The problem is that the price of gold is nowhere near high enough for the majors to sink billions of dollars and 8-10 years into the project in order to bring it online. People forget that gold, while a commodity, does come pouring out of a well. I can make and prove a fundamental case for gold being undervalued on a long term basis. No matter how hard I try, I cannot prove the same for the dollar or other currencies
Let's put this in perspective: I bought a 1968 Mustang ,Candy Apple Red, 302, and 4 speed on-the-floor, new, ordered from the factory, for $2950.00. Total delivered , with license and taxes. Paid cash. There was a little difference in inflation between 1968 and 1973, but close enough for thumbnail calculations. Based on this price, I could have bought 16 them (using your 50k example). The current price for a Mustang, roughly equipped like mine was, is about $34,000. This amounts to approximately a 10 fold increase. In 1973 $20 Gold coins could be purchased in the $100-120 range. The current $20 Double Eagle price is about $1800.00, and that would be about 15 fold increase. So there isn't a whole lot of difference in gold price and what it can buy over time, except what has happened to paper currency (which is now around the globe). Now your 50K, in 1973 could have bought about 400+ $20 Double Eagles, and would be now worth $750,000.00. And, now, back to the 2012 Mustang, you could buy 22 of them today for your gold coins. Not a lot of change for gold value over time, but fiat currency is getting fucked on a continuing basis.
50,000 -> 67,200,000
I think your numbers are a bit off. It's the (current price / the 1973 price) * 50000. You would have about half a million today I reckon. 90% devaluation is about right.
Some FuckTards are dumber than a FrozenFruitloop,and polo007 just happens to be one of them.
The Gold Dilemma: should I buy gold or should I buy gold and gold miners?
Banksters have hollowed out many miners with debt slavery.
Remember, at some point they will own everything, given their privileged location adjacent to the printing presses. Besides, unless you hold paper shares in your hands, DTCC actually owns them.
Possession, bitchez!
My vote is for the gold itself. Miners have too many risks. Some mines have ALREADY been shut down due to the low gold price (said the owner of my LCS where I buy Eagles).
The only modern gold dilemma is to decide in ones mind, whether ownership of physical gold and to a lessor extent silver, is an effective wealth preservator, or is an investment?
Those who choose investment will be disapointed. Gold and silver are money. Throughout history. Always have been and always will be. The ONLY TRUE wealth perserver.
Simple. Gold and silver cannot be replicated at will. Whereas paper currency can, will and is, with concurrent third party risk associated. Physical gold and silver have NO third party risk.
If this is what is meant by "golden constant" in the article? Then nothing has changed and this time is no different than past history. Paper currencies come and go. Gold and silver are 'truly' constant.
Please provide a citation for this statement. And can you also provide a definition of inflation please?
According to Macquarie Research:
http://www.scribd.com/doc/136799469/Corporate-Bond-Rate-CPI-Inflation-Implies-S-P-500-at-1742-Macquarie-Research
Corporate Bond Rate + CPI Inflation Implies S&P 500 at 1742
Our research theme for several months has surrounded the ongoing Risk-off Rally in the equity markets, highlighting sector preference for defensives and yield plays, but the common question we have received is regarding fair value for the equity market. While bottoms-up consensus EPS augers for a fair value range of 1550 – 1600, the unnatural impact of monetary policy on bond rates suggests a cross-asset arbitrage model may provide a better perspective. Using our CPI Inflation model we find that the fair value of the S&P 500 could be ~1742, or around ~12% above its current price of 1552.
Given that our cross-asset arbitrage model uses the S&P 500 Dividend Yield as valuation, presumably yield stocks would significantly outperform during a rally to 1742.
While this analysis is more for thought than basing investment decisions, it does provide perspective that the ongoing global quantitative easing undertaken by central banks should continue to push investors out on the risk curve and support higher equity markets. The question then becomes, as the Monetary valuation regime, is increasingly detached from a Fundamental/ Economic valuation regime, what happens when central banks ultimately reverse course?
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-10-16/hong-kong-starts-trading-bullio...
I want a savings rate and .0008 is not that.
According to Morgan Stanley:
http://www.scribd.com/doc/136909202/The-Higher-the-Stakes-The-Higher-the-Risks-Morgan-Stanley
The Gold Standard, a system of fixed exchange rates, is blamed by some for creating the Great Depression. Caught between rising domestic unemployment and the commitment to a fixed exchange rate, the UK exited from the Gold Standard in September 1931.
Almost immediately, Scandinavian economies followed suit, devaluing their currencies in line with sterling. The US, Italy and Germany stubbornly resisted…until they gave in and left the Gold Standard as well (the US in 1934, Italy and Germany in 1936). The decision to leave or stay on the Gold Standard separated the winners from the losers. Between 1931 and 1935, economies that devalued early got the benefits of monetary easing and saw their production expand, while those that stayed on it faced economic contraction. When everyone was off the Gold Standard by 1936, everyone was able to ease monetary policy and help their ailing economies.
Today, GME3 – the third wave of the Great Monetary Easing – is in full swing. This is typically the time when central banks start thinking about keeping policy on hold for a while before withdrawing stimulus, not easing policy further. Yet, the lingering question marks about growth (bigger in some places like the euro area, smaller in most EM economies) along with currency strength have resulted in exactly that – a further round of easing.
Such aggressive action has raised the stakes around the world, nowhere more so than in Japan. But the risks are high too, nowhere more so than in Japan.
The risks, while certainly not negligible, are the lowest for the Fed and the ECB: Neither should mind easing (or in the case of the Fed, not tapering off the easing) at this juncture. The economic downturn in the euro area seems likely to stretch on for longer, and both conventional and unconventional easing are back on the table following last week’s ECB statement and press conference. The US economy is now going through a soft patch, and with the growth relapses of the past few years in mind, keeping QE3 purchases going to minimise the risk of a premature end to easing will likely outweigh the risks.
Quit posting this fucking garbage from Morgan Stanley. Nobody here believes a word they say.
Ben, is that you?
Please recirculate through the sell side, not here.
Then again, you could back away from all this nonsense and explore what money really is and how to manage a medium of exchange (MOE).
Proper management of any Medium of Exchange (MOE)
-------------------------------------------------
Money is “a promise to complete a trade”. This is obvious by studying its genesis as an efficient improvement over simple barter. Look at barter. In a trade, at the instant a good moves from one hand to another there is an open promise to complete a trade. The instant before, it is a trading promise in the making. The instant after it is a promise kept.
All that money does is allow that promise to occur at different times; over different periods; at different places; and for intermediate goods. These promises are “certified” and then take on value themselves. The certificates are freely traded and called money. When the trade is completed, the trading promise is extinguished. The certificates (money) representing it are returned and extinguished with it.
Again ... money is "a promise to complete a trade".
Characteristics of a properly managed MOE:
o INFLATION is zero at all times and in all places
o The time value of money is always zero (same as above)
o Money is in free supply at all times and in all places
o Supply and demand for money are always in perfect balance
o Money circulates freely and is universally accepted
o Responsible traders enjoy zero INTEREST
o Irresponsible traders pay INTEREST ... it's an actuarial issue
o Traders, not governments, determine the value of the MOE
o No capital what-so-ever is required
o There is no commodity, precious or otherwise, backing the currency
o There are no runs on banks
o There is no business cycle
o There are no bubbles
o Saving and hoarding have no effect on the economy
o No cascading effects
o No marking to market
o No inflation measurements or estimates
o No price measurements or estimates
To properly manage any Medium of Exchange (MOE), the controlling relation is:
INFLATION = DEFAULT – INTEREST
Proper management entails:
o measuring DEFAULTS on trading promises
o collecting INTEREST equal to DEFAULTS experienced
o thus maintaining INFLATION at zero for all time and in all places
o assuring a free supply of certificates for trading promises at all times in all places
It is the marketplace, not capital or commodities, that backs money (promises to complete trades). And it is precise management of defaults and interest collections that give the responsive negative feedback assuring stability and integrity in the marketplace.
Money is debt, that is true … but that is not a bad thing any more than making a trading promise is a bad thing. Gold, silver, and any other good is not money. It is simply a good exchanged in simple barter.
Todd Marshall
Plantersville,TX
So, Todd Marshall, in your perfect money world, who exactly determines the "Supply" side of your "Supply and demand for money are always in perfect balance" critiera? Is that not the bleed hole that blows your "Perfect MoE" to smithereens?
.... Wow, good thing we don't have any standards these days.
polo007
Are you fucking stupid or just a genuine fucking idiot ?
I hope everyone has completed their grocery shopping....
I think Fridays/weekends for the next month are going to be a wee bit....uncertain.
"That's terrists, bro!"
That's just sick.
Don't worry, Uncle Ben's got this covered.
moar war, moar tehrists, what's not to like?
major US city locked down = bullish
For one skinny 19 year old.
Security theater nonsense. If he had a dirty bomb this would be justified but this kid is hiding in a closet somewhere shitting his pants.
bukkake theater- but there is no way this kid is going to survive
"bukkake theater"
I see what you did there. Lets not get everyone sidelined on a different topic....
I wonder if he's smart enough to turn a house into a bomb?
Strange markets, as usual. Turned off the TV. Everything is about the two 19 year olds who killed 3 people in Boston. Did you see the tanks the police have. I don't think they have that big a killing machine in Moscow or Shang hai. Am so tired of all this. Yes, it is a tragedy. But hardly a word about the 40 people killed in West Texas. I guess that does not sell as well.
What a broken country.
the 40 killed in Texas don't help advance the police state agenda
They also raise uncomfortable questions like why it's okay for a private company to take crazy stupid risks like making highly explosive shit across the street from a school, predictably leading to mass casualties, etc. We as the public need not think about such things. The real danger is that a religious zealot may kill you.
Hand it to ya, LTER. Texas has experience in ammonium nitrate fertilizer explosions (the deadly Texas City explosion in 1947, killed hundreds IIRC). One would think that the authorities and the company itself would have taken proper precautions and located their plant far away from a town.
They don't locate near towns, towns locate near them. They go out in the boonies, build a factory, then the people that work there want to live near where they work. Then the people who live off what they spend build stores there to serve them. Then schools and so on.
Yes, it's fucked up and stupid. This is far from the first instance of this going on, and it's not limited to this country. You could call it a government zoning failure...The company can't just move - not only is that expensive, it doesn't solve the problem. People follow jobs. Especially now.
I believe Bhopal was an example as well.
It's an ongoing problem. People move to the boonies. Some big jobs outfit moves in to take advantage of being almost the only one hiring. More people move in. Boonies get destroyed.
As one who lives in the boonies, and wants to keep them the way they are, this has been an issue for the 30+ years I've lived out here. Luckily the mountains inhibit infrastructure buildup, but the attempts are always there.
From the company description they've been there for something like 55 years. Maybe someone put the school beside the plant.
CCD - Collateral Cattle Damage.
You are spot on.
Well I, for one, would happily give quarter to some arbitrary state enforcer and accept a cavity search if it meant I would be safer. /sarc
No shit. If this were colonial America Paul Revere would have been sounding the alarm years ago (aka Ron Paul). Sigh.....
Israel Bissel never gets any love...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel_Bissell
People in flyover country don't count. The only people that matter are the beautiful people on the coasts.
Today's action appears to be also a defense of the 50 DMA??? It usually holds, these ddays.
Russel and QQQs smashed the 50 day already ( yesterday for the Qs. now testing from Blowus ). IBM Broke down ( gave up all of this years gain in one day )out of the same pattern as the Qs have showing.... Qs would go to $64 if they follow Big Blue. XLF broke the 50 yesterday too.
Good. So, defense will faulter shortly. Thanks.
And the miners are at 2 year lows. Beyond words.
I have an entire watch list dedicated to mining stocks. I currently have no positions in any of them, but definitely keeping a close eye on it. There will be some great money making opportunities there...the question is when. For now, watching don't cost me a thing.
.... Two year? GDX was at $30 Jan 2009, ( $15.83 was OCT 2008 low , ahead of "THE SPY crash 666 low )
NEM was over $30 when gold was $600,,, back in 2006.
Like a F'ing rubber band. But not time yet for the bears.
You can still do ok on some days being bearish...the key is to not hold positions overnight. Close flat and sleep well is the new mantra for bears.
There's nothing left to buy and sell.
Primary dealers are bored at shifting stocks to each other ad infinitum.
It's been happening since Dow 11k.
Eventually boredom sets in.
They're still trying to use the smoke and mirrors to reap the reward without the risk....day of reckoning is coming
when all else fails ...
http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2013/04/19/world/europe/ap-eu-cyprus-fin...
Koo Koo Market.
Gold and Silver look like they are being primed for another body slam.
I will look to sell the Nas if it goes to the HOD today..then down into the close.
it's all about the 'APPLE'?
what will iaapl say to its shareholders after a long leaked telegraph'd 'SOS'... most assuredly, that they're going to miss [dearly] both bottom and top numbers?
what to say, 'far from the maddening crowd'?
raise dividend-- a split?[laugh if you must]... or, on the very cusp of launching [hatching a rabbit from chicken's egg previously scrambled in the i'apple`magician's hat quarterly [trope] show?] a new product?
or, will we see with our own eyes that the liquidity of the mighty apple has turned into all but a sour mash of yesteryear?
http://investor.apple.com/ http://investor.apple.com/results.cfm
jmo
Did that 1:1 time with the POTUS help the execs and their portfolio positions? /s
Stop pushing buttons on Metals, before Crimex close..
Ridiculous bullshit, Silver below $23..
Mission accomplished
, F* YOU BEN!
The COMEX is in the process of putting themselves out of business.
I can't find a 1 oz coin or bar ANYWHERE for less than $30. Premiums are $6.99-$8.99 per oz.
Ridiculous, indeed. ACTUAL spot price vs. futures price indicates SEVERE backwardation. What is that telling us? Hmmmmm...
http://feketeresearch.com/upload/Who-said-the-hydra-would-take-it-lying-...
.
....
"From what hole does the evil deflationary wind blow?
Academia and the financial press have utterly failed to recognize the relevance of gold backwardation as regards deflation. They might fret about hyperinflation as a result of unbridled money-printing (euphemism for the monetization of
5
government debt). Yet the real danger is not on the inflationary but on the deflationary front as realized even by Krugman – while he is perfectly clueless on the question from what hole the evil deflationary wind blows (other than conservative wishful thinking).
Well, I can pinpoint the location of the hole to within yards for the benefit of Krugman. It is on Constitution Avenue, in Washington, D.C. The evil deflationary wind is blowing from the building of Federal Reserve Board.
If Bernanke thought that his attacks on the gold price would stem deflation, well, his efforts were counter-productive, to put it mildly. They have, in fact, made the flight into physical gold accelerate. Permanent backwardation of gold, and its concomitant, the re-invention of barter – the ultimate in deflation – will be the result.
There is no reason to fear that the Fed is pushing the world into hyper-inflation. In fighting the gold price the Fed unwittingly pushes the world into hyper-deflation.
All the same, it is destroying the dollar and the international monetary and payments system.
April 18, 2013." a.e.f.
.
19 April 2013
David Cay Johnston: On Crony Capitalism, Control Frauds, and the Gods of Greed and Power
http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2013/04/david-cay-johnston-corp...
So what is the trade? Time to go long SDS?
IN March 2009 Obama gets on TV and says to buy stocks. He met with business leaders behind closed doors and presumably told them everything the government was going to do to prop up the market.
Bernanke goes full retard. Stocks shoot to the moon. Some stocks shooting up a hundred percent or more in days at the end of March. By June the recession is over and the stock market continues on its tear.
SOME PEOPLE HAD TO BE VERY WELL PRE-POSITIONED FOR THAT TO HAPPEN.
Obama meets with business leaders again last week. The market has bee dropping wth insane moves in gold and other assets. Is this pre positioning for the next leg of the masterplan?
Are they engineering another crisis?
According to Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
http://www.scribd.com/doc/136941942/Gold-Capitulation-Bank-of-America-Merrill-Lynch
Gold capitulation
No current technical or fundamental support for gold prices
In a move last seen in 1983, gold prices collapsed by $215/oz or 14% over the last two trading sessions. Trading volumes in instruments such as futures or ETFs were 7-8 standard deviations away from the median. In our view, fears of central bank gold sales in the Eurozone and poor economic data out of China have been key triggers, with forced margin sellers likely exacerbating the spectacular downward move. Continuing a steady slide seen since October 2012 driven by a stronger USD and higher real interest rates, the sharp drop in gold prices comes at a time when disinflationary pressures are starting to build in different pockets of the global economy. Given a breakdown in fundamental and technical support for gold in the coming months, we remove our $2,000/oz price target for 2014.
Medium-term, jewellery demand should support $1,500/oz
Still, with prices now below $1,500/oz, we expect a pick-up in jewellery demand in the medium term and see immense pain for miners should prices dip below $1,200/oz. As such, we believe the downside to gold prices may be limited to an additional $150/oz. In fact, we estimate that jewellery demand may become so pronounced by 2016 that prices could trade above $1,500/oz even if investors remain net sellers. Looking at sensitivities from a different angle, investors would need to buy merely 600t of gold to sustain prices at $2,000/oz by 2016, compared to non-commercial purchases of 1,798t in 2012.
Official sector will remain a key driver for gold prices
Cyprus’ announcement to sell nearly 14t of gold reserves was a key trigger behind the recent meltdown, as it raised concerns that other peripheral nations may follow suit. Given our estimate that every $45/oz represents a net sale of 100t, the move over the last two days would suggest net sales of 480t, or about 20% of yearly mine supply. In short, the market seems to have discounted the combined future gold sales of Portugal and Greece! As we believe additional gold selling in the European periphery is highly unlikely, we find it hard to fully justify the sell-off. Having said that, for a firm near-term recovery in gold prices we would need to see a pick up in inflation, ECB easing, and EM reserve buying. None of these events are likely until 2H13, in our view.
Please someone, tell me what a "macro overlay" is and how is it used to buy "index protection"?
sunny
You can get that answer on google too, don't be lazy.
how much google is bernanke buying today?
there is no reason from there report yesterday that the stock should be up 35 dollars or 4 and a half percent, it should be down under 700.
fuck u bernanke
It really is not complex at all and you don't need to study all these charts.
The Fed is a buyer in the stock market. That is it, pretty simple.
So, once again, don't try to fight the FED!
Just Buy The F*N Dip.
You don't need protection or have to figure out if you should short aapl again this week.
Just Buy The F*N Dip. Easy, EZ.
In no time at all BAC and VLO will be back banging out new 52 week highs.
Of course its sustainable. There still is no real event or economic metric that has any bearing on the market. They completely hammer IBM but then just rotate into other Dow names. Yest they killed FDX - again rotate.
They sell individual names but rotate into others in the same sector.
You know we will be pushing 1565-70 by Monday - its all in the cards. The weekly chart on ES looks toppy/short - like you should buy 50 or 100 puts on SPY out a few weeks. However in the new paradigm that is the market that means strong buy. A chart that looks short has no impact on anything - it usually means do the opposite.
Heck on individual stocks they do it all the time - just when they are about to correct/breakdown they come out of nowhere and push them up 3-4% to rescue the chart. Has been going on for 6+ months. There are only select names where this is not the case.
Ultimately this will end badly. But other than Monday of this week the amount of selling is negligible. Monday was broad based selling. Tuesday undid 85% of that on most names (some were even higher). Wed selling was big in ES but many names held up vs market and were down less than the market. They sell select names very hard but then hold up other names in the same sector.
http://articles.marketwatch.com/2013-04-18/economy/38630953_1_federal-re...
Fed's Kocherlakota: Low rates may last 5-10 years
April 18, 2013
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Financial market conditions requiring the Federal Reserve to keep rates unusually low may persist for the next five to 10 years, said Narayana Kocherlakota, the president of the Minneapolis Fed Bank on Thursday. This low-rate environment, and Fed policy, in turn, can be expected to "be associated with financial market phenomena that are seen as signifying instability," such as inflated asset prices, high asset return volatility and heightened merger activity, Kocherlakota said, in a speech at the Levy Economics Institute of Bard College. This instability is best addressed through effective supervision and regulation, Kocherlakota said. However, the Fed may have to confront the dilemma of whether to raise rates to reduce the risks of a financial crisis with the certainty that any tightening would lead to lower employment and prices, he said. The Fed is in a better position to address this challenge than it was in 2007, he said.
http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/breakout/stocks-set-scary-may-says-nenner-151635217.html
It's been so long since the stock market has done anything except inch higher, making it easy to lose sight of the big picture for stocks. The reality is, the S&P 500 is less than 3% off it's all time highs. Regardless of whether you think this is a buying opportunity or the beginning of the end of the rally, there's still time for traders to adjust their portfolios.
Count Charles Nenner, founder of the Charles Nenner Research Center, as someone who thinks the sell-off has only just begun. In the attached video, Nenner explains that those buying now in anticipation of an improving economy have missed the bus by four years. Good news gets bought once by the smart money, he says. Expectations that the macro picture will improve were a bullish catalyst in 2009. Now it's time to sell the news.
Nenner says his firm took off all of its equity exposure when the S&P was at 1,510 specifically so they "wouldn't have to deal with all this mess." He bases his work on cycles of time and price. From that perspective he says stocks are going to be forming a top in late April. Any market close more than a couple points below 1,544 on the S&P 500 would be an indication to him the market is ready to roll over in a big way. As of mid-day Friday, stocks are bouncing between 1,540 and 1,550; perilously close to what Nenner would consider a technical breakdown.
What happens then?
"I think the beginning of May it starts to get scary," says Nenner. Most people would argue it's plenty frightening already, both in and out of the stock market.
http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/michael-santoli/gust-deflation-stirs-skittish-stock-market-163404101.html
Listen to the stock market the past couple of weeks and you’ll hear the hiss of deflation, of air leaking out of the 2013 rally as concerns build about downward pressure on economic growth, prices and corporate profit potential.
While the Standard & Poor’s 500 index ebbed 3.5% from its recent all-time high to Thursday’s close, this represents a sub-surface correction among stocks exposed to global economic momentum finally roiling the market’s surface. The index’s energy and basic-materials sectors are each down more than 5% in the past week.
Gold, suffering from dimming concern about systemic financial risk as well as cooling inflation worry, is down more than 20% from its all-time high and down 10% since April 11. Crude oil is off 15% since February and lumber futures are lower by 10% in a month.
The 10-year Treasury yield is near 1.70%, down steeply from 2.05% five weeks ago. An auction Thursday of Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, or TIPS, which compensate investors for future inflation, drew the weakest bidding interest in five years, suggesting the markets have little fear that inflation will be a major concern in coming years.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4wgbpGF9kT0
The Secret World Of Gold Part 1
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5OEMBzbINBI
The Secret World Of Gold Part 2
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hZzlz8GlX-c
The Secret World Of Gold Part 3
I think I understand how the average person in the West thinks about the financial meltdown.What I haven't seen much discussion about is the Asians' mentality and their take on the Cyprus depositor confiscation. The worst kept secret is that they are going to bail-in all the European Banks,probably starting with Spain. This is literally the edge of the cliff for this planet. A major war always follows (within a certain time-frame). The Asians understand this. The Fed is printing like mad. The Japanese are printing like mad.Why would the average Asian person not see gold and silver as the only hedge,particularly if war looms? Also,the Cyprus event signals the willingness of sovereigns to question the status of tax-havens,and confidentiality of account holders details.This has happened only rarely before and will be understood corrected in Asia as an act of desperation. I live on the west coast of the US and many Asians reside here in Cali. They would not be unphased by the recent muni bankruptcies in Stockton,Big Bear,Vallejo,San Bernadino,and soon Oakland and others. The important issue here is that for a minor haircut the Greece fiasco could've been postponed for a bit,down the road (and the CDS payout avoided)but the banks weren't interested. Stockton,Caifornia-for an adjustment,asking for time,the bankruptcy could've been avoided but the senior creditors (Wells Fargo?) weren't interested. Small wonder that Wall Street was so upset by tiny Iceland giving everyone the finger,unlike Ireland which absorbed private debt onto the public purse.Sad that the Irish didn't insist on a referendum on this issue. Also in reference to the Stockton fiasco,one of the largest debts is to CALPERS public employees retirement system. Good luck Sacramento,getting that cash.....