This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.

10 Signs The Paper Gold Crash Unleashed An Unprecedented Demand For Physical Gold And Silver

Tyler Durden's picture





 

Submitted by Michael Snyder of The Economic Collapse blog,

The crash of the price of paper gold on Monday has unleashed an unprecedented global frenzy to buy physical gold and silver.  All over the planet, people are recognizing that this is a unique opportunity to be able to acquire large amounts of gold and silver at a bargain price.  So precious metals dealers now find themselves being overwhelmed with orders in the United States, in Canada, in Europe and over in Asia. 

Will this massive run on physical gold and silver soon lead to widespread shortages of those metals?  Instead of frightening people away from gold and silver, the takedown of paper gold seems to have had just the opposite effect.  People just can't seem to get enough physical gold and silver right now.  Those that wish that they had gotten into gold when it was less than $1400 an ounce are able to do so now, and it is absolutely insane that silver is sitting at about $23 an ounce.  If the big banks continue to play games with the price of gold, we are going to see existing supplies of physical gold and silver dry up very quickly. 

And once reports of physical shortages of gold and silver become widespread, it is going to absolutely rock the financial world.  But this is what happens when you manipulate free markets - it often has unintended consequences far beyond anything that you ever imagined.

The following are 10 signs that the takedown of paper gold has unleashed an unprecedented global run on physical gold and silver...

#1 According to Zero Hedge, the U.S. Mint set a new all-time record for the number of gold ounces sold on Wednesday...

According to today's data from the US Mint, a record 63,500 ounces, or a whopping 2 tons, of gold were reported sold on April 17th alone, bringing the total sales for the month to a whopping 147,000 ounces or more than the previous two months combined with just half of the month gone.

#2 Precious metals dealers all over the United States are having a really hard time keeping up with demand right now.  According to Chris Martenson, many are warning customers to expect waiting times of five to six weeks at this point...

In the U.S., all of the dealers I talk to are reporting huge demand and brisk buying. Silver in any form is quite hard to come by unless you want to pay premiums of 20%+ per ounce above spot price. Delivery times are 5 to 6 weeks out now that's an unusual situation.  If this recent slam was designed to scare people away from gold, it did not have that desired outcome; in fact, just the opposite.

#3 Individual dealers all over the country are confirming that we are seeing a voracious appetite for precious metals at the moment.  For example, the following is what a spokesperson for JM Bullion had to say...

We still have certain things in stock, like 10 oz bars, while others, like Silver Eagles, are a bit of revolving inventory.

 

The shipments are going out as soon as inventory comes in.

 

Our main challenge right now is actually getting the silver into the boxes and shipped out – we have been experiencing astounding volume.

This appears to be a widespread phenomenon.  Just check out what other dealers are reporting...

“There has been a marked increase in demand since the plunge,” said Mark O’Byrne, executive director at Dublin-based investment and bullion specialist GoldCore, referring to the drop in gold prices seen Friday and Monday. Gold futures lost more than $200 an ounce, or over 13%, on those two days. They were at $1,392 an ounce, moving higher ahead of the close on Thursday.

 

GoldCore has seen more buying than selling on Wednesday and Thursday, with buy orders “lumpier and from high net worth clients, and with most of the selling in small orders of less than 50 ounces, said O’Byrne.

 

On Wednesday, David Beahm, executive vice president at Blanchard & Co., said his precious-metals investment firm has seen “2008-like demand” for gold since Monday.

#4 Large international banks are also experiencing tremendous demand for physical gold and silver by customers right now.  The following is what Keith Barron told King World News about what he is hearing...

At the Bank of Nova Scotia in Toronto the gold window has been absolutely swamped. I have confirmed there were people lined up in droves recently for multiple-hours at a time to buy gold and silver bars and coins....

 

I then confirmed with UBS today in Zurich, Switzerland, that they are experiencing exactly the same thing. They told me people are waiting in long lines for bullion related bars and coins. The physical market is incredibly tight, and there is a huge buying opportunity right here.

 

The damage in gold will not be long-term because physical supply is already drying up. Asian countries have been aggressively buying gold. This really is an unprecedented opportunity for investors. This takedown in the metals has created incredible demand for both gold and silver, and anyone who wants to unload dollars or euros and put them into gold because they don’t trust the currency, now is the time to do it.

#5 The demand for physical gold and silver is heating up over in Europe as well.  For example, the following is from an emergency message posted on the website of a precious metals dealer in the UK...

Due to the unprecedented demand triggered by the recent fall in the Gold Price we are currently not able to guarantee Next Day Delivery of orders.

 

We anticipate that all orders will be delivered within 7 days of receipt by us.

Whilst we appreciate that these delays are frustrating for our customers we would like to stress that all accepted orders are guaranteed at the order price and will be dispatched as soon as possible.

 

It is necessary for all of our staff to be utilised in fulfilling orders and we ask for your cooperation by not calling us to query delivery times. If you do need to contact us, please do so by e-mail and we will endeavour to respond within 48hrs.

#6 On the other side of the globe, demand for precious metals is skyrocketing as well.  According to Bloomberg, people are "running through the gate" to get gold in Australia...

Gold sales from Australia’s Perth Mint, which refines nearly all of the nation’s bullion, surged after prices plunged, adding to signs that the metal’s slump to a two-year low is spurring increased demand.

 

“The volume of business that we’re putting through is way in excess of double what we did last week,” Treasurer Nigel Moffatt said by phone, without giving precise figures.

 

“There’s been people running through the gate.”

#7 Reuters is reporting that customers are waiting for up to three hours to buy gold in Japan...

A week ago, as the yen-denominated price neared a new peak, jewelry stores and gold merchants across Japan saw long lines of mostly older Japanese looking to cash in on unwanted jewelry and other items that they had held for years.

 

But on Tuesday, buyers outnumbered sellers by a wide margin. At Ginza Tanaka, the headquarters shop of Tanaka Holdings, gold buyers waited for as long as three hours for a chance to complete a transaction.

#8 According to a Chinese article quoted by the Blaze, there is a mad rush to buy gold in China right now...

People have to rush to buy gold … gold bullion out of stock yesterday, investors yesterday to spend as much as 600 million yuan to buy 20 kilograms of gold bars

The mad pursuit gold insufficiency is not just a game for the rich. Yesterday, the Yangcheng Evening News reporter learned from the East flowers to Bay store, many growers, pork traffickers, fishmonger recently put down his job went straight to the mall to buy gold.

#9 According to Reuters, dealers in Singapore are having significant trouble finding enough of a supply to keep up with the intense demand for gold that has erupted this week...

"People are actually buying everything, gold bars, gold coins. People are rushing to get a hand on it. We have a problem meeting the demand because we are unable to get new supply," said Brian Lan, managing director of GoldSilver Central Pte Ltd in Singapore.

#10 Bloomberg is reporting that over in India people are "flocking to stores" to purchase gold jewelry and coins...

Gold buyers in India, the world’s biggest consumer, are flocking to stores to buy jewelry and coins, betting a selloff that plunged bullion to a two-year low may be overdone.

 

“My daughter is just six months old, but I think it is never too early to buy gold,” said Sharmila Shirodkar, a 28- year-old housewife, while displaying a new pair of earrings she bought from a store in Mumbai’s Zaveri Bazaar. “I had been asking my husband every day if prices will go down more. I couldn’t wait anymore.”

If the big banks were trying to scare people away from gold and silver by crashing paper prices for those metals then they have utterly failed.

Instead of being frightened away, the global appetite for physical gold and silver is now more voracious than ever.

If the prices for gold and silver stay this low, we are eventually going to start seeing some very serious shortages in the marketplace.

And once reports of shortages of the actual physical metals become widely circulated, it will cause an "adjustment" in the marketplace that will shock everyone.

So hold on to your hats.  We are entering a period of time when there will be unprecedented volatility for the prices of precious metals.  It will be quite a roller coaster ride, but if you can handle the ups and downs it will be worth it in the end.

They Have Unleashed A Frenzy To Get Gold And Silver

 
 


- advertisements -

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Sat, 04/20/2013 - 19:38 | Link to Comment sony1
sony1's picture

Farst!

Sat, 04/20/2013 - 19:43 | Link to Comment toys for tits
toys for tits's picture

'You didn't build that [gold takedown].'

Sat, 04/20/2013 - 20:06 | Link to Comment SafelyGraze
SafelyGraze's picture

and they will search your car for it

even if your ride is limo-one

http://i.imgur.com/wipjBDu.jpg

and you hide in the back seat

nope .. not under here!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EI8gI8-QNck&t=45s

 

Sat, 04/20/2013 - 20:07 | Link to Comment rajat_bhatia
rajat_bhatia's picture

Don't hate me, but I think gold is going sub $1000, the physical one too. 

Sat, 04/20/2013 - 20:09 | Link to Comment StarTedStackin'
StarTedStackin''s picture

I don't hate, I more pity, but I wonder what vehicle you think the smart money wil park itself in this time?

 

 

I'm all ears.

Sat, 04/20/2013 - 20:14 | Link to Comment rajat_bhatia
rajat_bhatia's picture

:-)  if I knew that, I wouldn't be here commenting on ZH.. I'm hoping I learn more

Sat, 04/20/2013 - 20:23 | Link to Comment toys for tits
toys for tits's picture

I assume you're Indian based on your screen name.

If you are, then having that belief must be the same as eating a cow in the middle of the street.

The Indians got it right with their love of gold.  Their government has been attacking their wealth for hundreds of years.

Sat, 04/20/2013 - 20:29 | Link to Comment rajat_bhatia
rajat_bhatia's picture

Eating a cow is against religion, and there's a rational reason behind it, as cows are extremely essential for the agricultural land of India..

But I get your point.

I'm just thinking, remember the Japanese stock bubble, or the dot com bubble, housewives were the ones quoted in reports at the top of the ,market..

funny, though I'm no misogynist. 

Sat, 04/20/2013 - 21:06 | Link to Comment DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

 

 

Sign No. 11

I tried to back up the truck twice last week on gold.  I went to my LCS heavily armed with FIAT$.  But, I could only buy one Gold Eagle each visit.  I have been buying for decades, and never did I encounter such a shortage (over about a week's time).

FOFOA sez that, yes, the price of gold may go down, perhaps a whole lot, maybe to $400.  But, the physical gold will disappear.  The "paper price" may be $400, but if there is none for sale...?

And then when gold becomes visible and available again, $55,000...

fofoa.blogspot.com  <-- be prepared for long reads, I suggest starting with his 2009 posts.

***

Things seem extra spooky now.  PM price plunges even w/ QE...  Weird terror.  Stocks down!  Even the CBC is now talking about the secret world of gold.

"Spookier and Spookier..."

http://tinyurl.com/chk6s7l

Sat, 04/20/2013 - 21:16 | Link to Comment markmotive
markmotive's picture

I wonder about the timing of the gold takedown and the Boston bombing.

Somehow connected? Is one a distraction for the other? Are both inside jobs?

http://www.planbeconomics.com/2013/04/lieutenant-colonel-potter-exposing...

 

Sat, 04/20/2013 - 21:26 | Link to Comment knukles
knukles's picture

Paul Krugman Vindicated

This proves his thesis.  That lower prices beget lesser demand of something that's a barbarous relic which absolutely nobody wants and everybody's selling and that's why you cant find it anywhere because everybody's selling it so there's none available to buy.

Solid thesis, Dr (previous adviser to Enron) Krugman

Sat, 04/20/2013 - 21:40 | Link to Comment DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Yep, knukles, there it is.  Why even in my own case, I would have only wanted FOUR oz, tops!  I guess the flood must have missed my hometown...  Krugman lets us know about the barbarous relic, indeed.

It was kind of you to highlight the news that Krugman is right.

Sat, 04/20/2013 - 22:26 | Link to Comment NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

It's damned odd, I agree.  When buying ammo the price and the scarcity both went hand-in-hand (normal market behaviror).  This physical gold thing is weird.  If things don't snap back to where the price and the demand link up again in, say, a few weeks (delay based on the undenyable difficulty of moving large quantities of heavy metal physically around the globe to meet the market) then this is a real disconnect.

I think the real break-down is in the minting of new coins (I haven't heard of anyone sizable SELLING their existing coin stock, which means basically only newly minted coins are meeting/failing to meet demand).  Bullion, similar problem- somebody has to make the certified bars.  Haven't heard of anyone selling their bars, either (Cyprus doesn't count because their gold hasn't hit the market yet).  Again, only newly minted ones are feeding demand right now.

Somewhere in all this I wonder if the old "stock vs. flow" discussion doesn't apply.

It's too late to thing this through any further.  I could well we off base.  Dunno.  Gonna grab some sleep and think about it more in the morning.

Sun, 04/21/2013 - 00:07 | Link to Comment Manthong
Manthong's picture

Screw you PTB.

..and when the executive order hits again we will get a beautiful, free market of black.

Sun, 04/21/2013 - 07:43 | Link to Comment GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

 

When their fiat becomes worthless, they will cling to their gold, guns, and ammo - Barry Soetoro (Love child of Frank Marshall Davis...the real reason he didn't produce the birth certificate)

Sun, 04/21/2013 - 08:04 | Link to Comment Manthong
Manthong's picture

I don’t have a problem with the slut/commie bastard thing, it’s the un-natural born citizen/constitution thing that really gets me.

It delegitimizes absolutely everything.

Oh, and the fraudulent document post is not such a good thing either.

Sun, 04/21/2013 - 09:43 | Link to Comment tsx500
tsx500's picture

he IS a legit USA citizen....the ladies on The View said so !

Sun, 04/21/2013 - 10:45 | Link to Comment Pool Shark
Pool Shark's picture

 

 

Great source for immediately available US Mint silver bullion:

http://www.providentmetals.com/bullion/silver/us-slv/america-the-beautiful-5-oz.html

Only about $27.75/ounce...

 

Sun, 04/21/2013 - 14:19 | Link to Comment donsluck
donsluck's picture

Sure, and I am a great source too, at that 20% premium!

Sun, 04/21/2013 - 09:48 | Link to Comment Spigot
Spigot's picture

"You've got the drive the price down to buy, and drive it up to sell." -anon

Someone handed thier buddies/owners a gift in order to help them get 2+ tonnes of gold coins (in one day) from the US Treasury and other governmental sources around the world.

Deep pockets had no problems financing, and then backing up their armored cars to the back loading docks on April 17th, and after.

Another "bank" robery in plain sight, IMO. And so gratuitously obvious as to be an "in your face" and "you will never have the time to cause us trouble" before TSHTF so of no concern to us to force feed $20 billion of options onto the market, which by the way has funded our massive purchases of physical gold, and BTW we will never have to go back into the market because by the time the options we sold are due, there will be no market...

Consider this a sentinal event and sign that TPTB know the end is upon us.

Mark this word: within 2 weeks everything will fall to pieces and we will be buying bread for $25 per loaf (or more, and your currency same proprtion). If you care about your families, please prepare accordingly.

Sun, 04/21/2013 - 13:11 | Link to Comment Doña K
Doña K's picture

It would have been more convincing if there were some pictures of people waiting to buy gold.

As I posted before, I am in the center of Joburg RSA (Sandon city) and the three dealers are sold out. The main office of the bigger one will sell you a few at a higher commission.

Sun, 04/21/2013 - 23:29 | Link to Comment Spigot
Spigot's picture

Dealers buy from the mints in a pretty steady stream. They do not typically have the financing to buy much more than their usual share. the 2+ tonnes bought at the US Mint on 17th April came from some other source of demand and financing, and there was not much delay in the draw down.

Sun, 04/21/2013 - 12:02 | Link to Comment Marco
Marco's picture

The gold sellers simply don't want to get accused for profiteering, which would happen if they increased prices on coins and small bars too much while spot and london good delivery bar prices didn't move at all ... as for where the bars are coming from, the gold market is liquid as fuck.

Ignoring conspiracy theories the ETFs have seen significant outflows, which means they are selling bars.

Sun, 04/21/2013 - 14:49 | Link to Comment Squiddly Diddly
Squiddly Diddly's picture

Stock ain't flowin.

Sat, 04/20/2013 - 22:42 | Link to Comment Dane Bramage
Dane Bramage's picture

We're witnessing Grehsam's Law.  Simple as that.

Sun, 04/21/2013 - 05:59 | Link to Comment auric1234
auric1234's picture

And once all the good money is in the hands of savers, the bad money will pick extremely high velocity as nobody will want to hold onto it.

Sounds like a prelude to hyperinflation.

 

Sun, 04/21/2013 - 08:24 | Link to Comment GCT
GCT's picture

Dochen have youtried to pick up some Jeweler's gold bars?  They are still plentiful if you have a source.

Sun, 04/21/2013 - 12:35 | Link to Comment rosiescenario
rosiescenario's picture

As others have mentioned, Ammo is not a COMEX traded item and its supply, demand, and pricing appear rational....it is very hard to find and priced accordingly when you do get lucky.

 

I just do not understand why pm dealers would even be using the COMEX price as a reference point. If there is that much demand and that much scarcity of the physical, why would they not be auctioning it to the highest bidder?

 

Dealers could run a Dutch auction fairly easily, so I am puzzled as to why the dealers are trying thier best to get top dollar.

 

I am now going to eBay to see what is happening there.

Sat, 04/20/2013 - 23:57 | Link to Comment Boxed Merlot
Boxed Merlot's picture

Solid thesis, Dr (previous adviser to Enron) Krugman...

 

 

On why he no longer went to Ruggeri's, a St. Louis restaurant: "Nobody goes there anymore. It's too crowded."  --  Yogi Berra

 

Sat, 04/20/2013 - 21:49 | Link to Comment westcoastjan
westcoastjan's picture

and add to that a poison letter to the president. Hate to be a conspiracy theorist, but the thought definitely crossed my mind that the possibility of diversionary tactics was there. Guess I need a tinfoil hat after all :(

Sun, 04/21/2013 - 00:33 | Link to Comment olto
olto's picture

@westcoastjan

Dear jan,

Actually, to all here

We don't have to eat everything that is put on our plate

a lot has been served up for one week, so

why not just see what the market says?

only two emotions count in these markets and, somewhere between greed and fear

seems about right to me

 

Sun, 04/21/2013 - 08:37 | Link to Comment Go Tribe
Go Tribe's picture

Well, I can tell you how the nexus of those events changed my behavior: I no longer hide my silver in our pressure cooker.

Sat, 04/20/2013 - 23:22 | Link to Comment Jungle Jim
Jungle Jim's picture

All I know is, I was forced to sell basically ALL my 90 percent silver yesterday (Friday the 19th).

I did not do so because I thought it was a good time to sell. I understood very well that it was probably the worst possible time in history to sell, maybe the worst there would ever be again.

I sold it, after already selling one of my cars and selling everything else that wasn't nailed down and had any value at all, after holding out and living like a pauper or a hobo for months, because I had rent and bills to pay that couldn't be stalled any longer, bills stacking up, debts piling up, credit cards played out (one down to ~ $18, the other down to ~ $52), and exactly $5.01 left in my checking account. No cash except some small change.

If I'd had a flat tire on the way to the coin shop to sell my silver, I couldn't have gotten it fixed or replaced. If I'd had a car breakdown, or an accident, I couldn't have paid the tow truck. If any unforeseen emergency whatever had come up, I would have had no means of dealing with it.

So, I sold almost the only thing I had left to sell to raise any cash: my 90 percent silver. All of it. At a loss. A BIG loss. And I know I will never get it back.

In a month or so I will have to start selling my Silver Eagles. When those are all gone I will have to start selling my gold. Again, almost certainly at a BIG loss ... unless some unforeseen miracle occurs first. I've grown very skeptical about miracles lately.

 

Sat, 04/20/2013 - 23:35 | Link to Comment Prince Eugene o...
Prince Eugene of Savoy's picture

No sources of fiat?

Sat, 04/20/2013 - 23:58 | Link to Comment Jungle Jim
Jungle Jim's picture

If you mean me, Prince, the answer is no. No job. No income at all of any kind whatever. 

Oh, here's the best part. You're gonna love this: the modest house of one of my Facebook Friends (I have only 19) burned down, pretty much to the ground, late last night. She barely saved her life, and almost nothing else.

And now, because of the Cartel's successful PM price-suppression schemes, which have impoverished me, I cannot help her. It's funny how people assume that everyone is completely selfish. But what hurts me the most is that I can no longer help my friends. Nor hinder my enemies either, for wealth can be a weapon.

Sun, 04/21/2013 - 01:59 | Link to Comment 55 men
55 men's picture

I am sorry you have to go through something like this...there are people who have had there backs against the wall like yours and have ended up doing amazing things. Stay as positive as you can. Just remember there is no calvary coming to save your life, you and only you, can do that. I wish you the best......there will be better days

Sun, 04/21/2013 - 03:02 | Link to Comment Jungle Jim
Jungle Jim's picture

Well, 55 Men, thanks. Thanks for the thought, anyway. I hope you're right. 

Sun, 04/21/2013 - 08:01 | Link to Comment GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

 

The unemployment rate should be in negative numbers by this summer. They'll be knocking on your door with free health-care and all the top paying jobs you can shake a stick at.

 

Until then just keep sucking down the Koolaid.

Sun, 04/21/2013 - 03:11 | Link to Comment Wile-E-Coyote
Wile-E-Coyote's picture

Hang in there, the worm will turn.

Sun, 04/21/2013 - 05:54 | Link to Comment Juggernaut Nihilism
Juggernaut Nihilism's picture

Apologize in advance for giving a lecture you probably don't want to hear, but any time a friend asks me how to start investing, I always tell them, if they aren't already financially secure, that the best bet is to invest in themselves.  With all due respect, if you can't pay your bills and have $5 in your checking account, all-time-high $50 silver wouldn't help you.  It would only let you survive a few more months.  You said you still have some silver eagles and gold, if that' the case, sell all of it except a few end-of-the-world insurance ounces, and use the proceeds to go take a course to learn how to fix cars or fly helicopters.  Learn another language.  A friend and I, in our spare time, are taking a course to become certified EMTs in the evening after we get off work, just to have another skill to fall back on.  It is through a major college and only costs $800 total.

Because even in the "new world" of hyperinflation where your precious metals horde will theoretically support you forever, you are still going to need useful skills.  If you have no way of generating income right now, then you are only counting down the days until your metal runs out.

Sun, 04/21/2013 - 07:20 | Link to Comment samcontrol
samcontrol's picture

learn another language... lol

so he can say " estoy en el horno" (argentine slang) , intead of...

I'm fucked !

Me to brother....moi aussi frere.

Sun, 04/21/2013 - 09:23 | Link to Comment FreeNewEnergy
FreeNewEnergy's picture

I feel I have to chime in here with some advice for Jungle Jim. Start a business. Anything. Get paid in cash, if possible. Don't become another debt slave with a shitty job.

Here's my 100% true story: I think it was about 1992. I was broke, living with my brother and he wanted rent. I had $12 in pennies, my car, a little gas and a computer and printer. I took those pennies, rolled them up, took them to the bank, got $12, bought $12 worth of stuff at the dollar store - mostly cleaning supplies - printed up some cards that said "Happy House" and took my goods door-to-door in my neighborhood (in the city, a little distance from the dollar store). I sold what I had in about an hour, went back to the dollar store twice that day to re-supply and again hit the streets.

In one day - ONE DAY! - I had $45, more merchandise and people calling me with orders and questions. My biggest seller were sponges. I was able to get a big bag of them for $1, broke them up and sold them for $50 each. People would buy six or eight at a time. Also, Old Dutch Cleanser (like Comet), which I got 2 for a buck and turned around at $1 each.

In a week, I netted over $400, and then got a huge order from a guy who ran a cleaning business for about $250. I did all this in three residential blocks, barely tapping the market.

I did this for about a month, paid all my bills and took a job with a friend as a painter, which paid extremely well, and still kept getting orders over the phone. I didn't pursue the business further, but, looking back, figure I could have made serious money had I kept at it.

So, my advice, find a service which you can handle, print up some cards or use the internet. There are opportunities everywhere for self-starters. Avoid self-pity and self-defeating attitudes and people who are negative. You have worth and if you allow yourself to overcome your fear of failure, you will succeed.

(Just a side note: When I started my "Happy House" business, I was worried that people would see that I was just buying stuff at the dollar store and turning it over. Never happened. Years later, I realized that I was providing a service: bringing those cheap goods to their doors, and that was the "value added" aspect. Add value to an existing product or service and you can't miss. I know a guy who goes to the farmer's market every morning, brings home vegetables and sells them from his front yard. His day is done by 1:00 in the afternoon, and he plays a lot of golf in good weather. There are success stories everywhere - many on ebay - of people pulling themselves out of bad situations. You are no different.)

Sun, 04/21/2013 - 10:43 | Link to Comment U4 eee aaa
U4 eee aaa's picture

Moral of the story:

There are plenty of stupid, lazy people out there who don't have the sense to go to the dollar store.

That is what makes people like Buffett, and our friend above, rich

Sun, 04/21/2013 - 13:17 | Link to Comment Imminent Crucible
Imminent Crucible's picture

More often, it's not sense that people are short on. It's the answer to Bilbo's riddle: "Time! Give me time!"

When I head into town on a "building supply" day, it takes me half a day in town. Every. Stinkin. Time. Why? Because besides a trip to one, maybe two homebuilder supply outfits, I have to make a trip by the bank, run grocery errands for the wife (usually for the specials at two stores), and maybe stop for gasoline and a stop to fill a propane tank for the construction heater.

He wasn't selling sponges and cleanser. He was selling time and convenience. He's giving out the answer for everyone who says, "There are NO jobs where I live!" There may be no jobs in your area--so make your own.

Sun, 04/21/2013 - 09:27 | Link to Comment Diogenes
Diogenes's picture

That is so touching. Like there are still jobs out there to get, and all you need is more education. When burger joints are hiring college graduates

Gerald Celente

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_9x9TES0MJM

Sun, 04/21/2013 - 09:45 | Link to Comment Juggernaut Nihilism
Juggernaut Nihilism's picture

Who said anything about "education"?  I'm talking about skills.  People who can actually do useful things can always find a way to survive, especially if they have more than an dash of initiative and basic social skills.  I'm not talking about an $80k gender studies degree or a single ability to perform a very specific job for a particular company.  Spend one year and $5k getting certified as an EMT, IT/network technician, learning a second language, and learning a programming language or how to fix a car, depending on your constitution and temperment, and you will never be homeless or hungry, I don't care if you live in Manhattan or the Eastern bloc.

Sun, 04/21/2013 - 08:08 | Link to Comment jvetter713
jvetter713's picture

And you are still paying your slave masters (CC's)...why?

Sun, 04/21/2013 - 15:50 | Link to Comment xxxxx
xxxxx's picture

Man I feel for you. been there myself.

It makes me mad as hell to think some prick short traders in London are popping $1,000 champagne and having a good laugh about all the little guys they fucked over.

Silver and Gold are not a store of wealth. or a safe haven. It's a shark tank and they will fuck you over, whenever they feel like it. It's not a buy and hold investment, but strictly for speculating and trading. (if you have the stomach for it)

Sun, 04/21/2013 - 16:00 | Link to Comment akak
akak's picture

Had to downarrow you for this egregious bullshit:

Silver and Gold are not a store of wealth. or a safe haven ... It's not a buy and hold investment, but strictly for speculating and trading.

Sun, 04/21/2013 - 16:46 | Link to Comment xxxxx
xxxxx's picture

Really Silver down over %50 from the last high does that sound like a "investment" to you?

Sun, 04/21/2013 - 16:52 | Link to Comment akak
akak's picture

Disingenuous cherry-picking asshole. 

Yeah, everyone always, and only, buys at the very peak price.

How about silver being up over 50% in the last four years, or up over 100% in the last six years, or up over 300% in the last ten years?

Sun, 04/21/2013 - 16:59 | Link to Comment Imminent Crucible
Imminent Crucible's picture

The Dow Jones Industrial Complex: From 14,100 in Oct 2007, down over 50% to 6547 in Mar 2009. Does that sound like an "investment" to you?

When you live with blinders on, it's easy to miss the obvious. Everything--EVERYTHING--in the markets sees volatility. Even Honest Uncle Warren says "If you're not prepared to see your stocks fall by 50%, you shouldn't be in the markets at all."  And you, dumpling, are definitely someone who should not be in the markets.

Don't buy silver or gold. You don't have the stomach for it. Don't buy stocks--they can crash. Don't buy bonds--they WILL crash, again. Don't buy a house; houses can lose 35%, or in Florida, 80%. In fact, you shouldn't buy anything, because you don't really understand the difference between investments, speculations, and hedges.

Sun, 04/21/2013 - 18:35 | Link to Comment akak
akak's picture

Fantastic post!

Sun, 04/21/2013 - 19:31 | Link to Comment Imminent Crucible
Imminent Crucible's picture

It's amazing what you can do with a keyboard in one hand, a Yuengling Black & Tan in the other hand, and a Grolsch in the other.

Sat, 04/20/2013 - 23:26 | Link to Comment Diablo
Diablo's picture

I love these "supply shortage", "lines at LCS", "mint sells out of coins", or some godforsaken central bank saying theyre buying gold/silver articles. I guess ZH'ers have a short memory. Look back at the old articles here and youll see the same stuff written when silver crashed in 2011. same 'ole 'china buying', 'india buying'. 'cartel take down' stories/comments by a bunch of goobers. now go look at the price of silver. so much for "buy silver, crash JPMorgan"....how'd that work out for you????

gold will get a bounce up to 1500/1600 (look at what silver did), but it will retrace back to 1000....easily. silver is half what it was when the idiots like max keiser/jim sinclair/mike baloney were hyping it up. but people keep listening to them and everyone will keep crying about 'paper price versus physical', 'if you dont hold it you dont own it' garbage i keep hearing.

 

 

 

Sat, 04/20/2013 - 23:51 | Link to Comment OldPhart
OldPhart's picture

Other sources I've read indicate that we have a supply shortage simply because of our just-in-time inventory system.  To me, we'll see a temporary price hike (which is happening via the premiums) only to see another smash down as supply refloods the market.

I suspect that resupply with hit right about the time that weaker hands have sold their physical in disgust.  There may be a rather large goat moving along the supply snake.  That said, there probably wil be a significant, long-term supply problem resulting from Kennekott and the expected source in Peru(?).  However, if the price starts to rise, other mines will shift focus from copper to gold and silver.

I'm trying to save dry powder for the next big dip.  I have a (very uneducated) feeling that prices of silver will be sub-20's before long, and Gold may see the 900's.

Sun, 04/21/2013 - 06:08 | Link to Comment auric1234
auric1234's picture

Right. And in a real market, after a price drop there would be no shortage. On the contrary, a price drop would indicate gold sellers are flooding the market with their gold, offering it at a loss so that dealers will take it.

Where did you see this happening?

 

Sun, 04/21/2013 - 02:19 | Link to Comment James_Cole
James_Cole's picture

I love these "supply shortage", "lines at LCS", "mint sells out of coins", or some godforsaken central bank saying theyre buying gold/silver articles. I guess ZH'ers have a short memory. Look back at the old articles here and youll see the same stuff written when silver crashed in 2011. same 'ole 'china buying', 'india buying'.

Same old bullshit, new year. Same source too: The Economic Collapse blog. 

Silver is half what it was when the idiots like max keiser/jim sinclair/mike baloney were hyping it up.

I've been saying this for a while now and all I get is downvotes and people telling me to fuck off. I've made good arguments too! But nope, people have the glint in their eye and they must hoard. Try to save some folks a bit of money advising against following the 'wisdom' of those scam artists and prepare to be raged at!

When something is being sold there has to be a buyer and it seems ZH is filled with buyers all the way down..

Sun, 04/21/2013 - 02:59 | Link to Comment Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

Why don't you just fuck off already. You havent made any good arguments against holding physical gold or silver.

Sun, 04/21/2013 - 10:48 | Link to Comment Shell Game
Shell Game's picture

@JamesCole -  for crying out loud, don't you see what's happening?  We have entered a rare monetary transitionary phase from debt-backed fiat to a real store of value.  It will be true stores of value that preserve not just wealth, but sovereignty.  This phase will be unpredictable and it will be ugly.  But when it is over you will fully understand what just happened and wish with every fiber of your body that you sought a true store of value before it all went down.  Try to be patient, smart and ditch the snark.

Sun, 04/21/2013 - 14:55 | Link to Comment James_Cole
James_Cole's picture

@JamesCole -  for crying out loud, don't you see what's happening?  We have entered a rare monetary transitionary phase from debt-backed fiat to a real store of value.  It will be true stores of value that preserve not just wealth, but sovereignty. 

Sovereignty has always been preserved by the barrel of a gun. But let's say you're right about the 'monetary transitionary phase,' atm you still have a long way to go before you get there and potentially a decent amount of downside in the price of pms.

Realistically if you look at silver it should be in the $18-22  range. I've said this for some time and now it's nearly there.

I'm not here to argue the long term case for gold or silver, but the current market. For instance, when silver collapsed to $26 on a recent Friday people on here were saying they were running out to 'back up the truck' and I said careful cause there's potential for a decent amount more downside. When something gets hit that hard it's tough to see a bottom, sometimes there's a bounce but looking at 
probabilities it's much safer not to buy. Silver closed at a low that day which made it almost certain it would be dropping Monday. And sure enough it did.

Meanwhile the silver / gold cheerleaders on here were all lockstep 'buy buy buy.' So whoever bought on their advice lost money IMMEDIATELY. 

Right now there's A LOT of margin built into pm commodity prices, a decent amount of that margin has to clear before you can get a realistic picture of what the price should be. My main point is watch the price trends, don't believe the scam artists (Sprott & his friends) and read up on the reports (WGC) to better protect yourself.

Take a look at these two articles for instance:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-12-20/silver-vaults-stuffed-mean-pric...

Silver Bullion Pte, one of Singapore’s largest suppliers of coins and bars to retail investors, says sales tripled since October, part of a global surge in demand that drove holdings to a record. - Dec 20th 2012

http://www.etftrends.com/2013/04/silver-etf-lowest-since-august-2012-ami...

Silver ETFs have fallen to their lowest levels in over seven months as a recent smackdown in commodities suggests natural resource investors are concerned about global growth despite the S&P 500 rising to new all-time highs. - Apr 2nd 2013

Which article more accurately represented the silver price trend, the one about phyiscal buying or paper selling?

And also I highly recommend this report:

http://www.gold.org/download/pub_archive/pdf/GDT_Q4_2012.pdf

Sun, 04/21/2013 - 17:03 | Link to Comment Imminent Crucible
Imminent Crucible's picture

Coleslaw: It's so stupid to have lumpy gold under your mattress when you can enjoy the comfort and convenience of paper money in the bank. Just ask the people of Cyprus.

Sun, 04/21/2013 - 10:53 | Link to Comment Vooter
Vooter's picture

I buy silver and gold PRECISELY because it makes people like you post angry, frustrated screeds on ZH. It's fun!

Sun, 04/21/2013 - 07:54 | Link to Comment new game
new game's picture

fly in ointment-CB concerted effort to dump tons of phys to overwelm spot shortages.

bring it on mutha f's

JMFO

Sun, 04/21/2013 - 09:55 | Link to Comment machineh
machineh's picture

El Diablo is trying to do ZHers a favor. But folks with a 'fixed idea' just won't listen.

Try this: download the time series of London PM gold fixes from FRED. Here's the link:

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/GOLDPMGBD228NLBM?rid=256

Now calculate a moving average -- anywhere from 10 to 12 months will do. Add a deadband to suppress whipsaws -- anywhere from 2% to 10% will do.

Now compare your moving average buy/sell rule to 'buy and hold.' The MA rule will outperform 'buy and hold' by several percentage points annually -- a FAR better record than ANY gold guru or internet commentator.

Currently, gold is below its moving average. Do you feel lucky enough to beat a dispassionate moving average rule? And if so, why?

Sun, 04/21/2013 - 10:09 | Link to Comment HamFistedIdiot
HamFistedIdiot's picture

I gave you an up vote because I, too, am sometimes miffed by the constant cries of upward and onward in the metals prices by Jim Sinclair, Max Keiser and the crew at King World News. How can one be confident of a price move up when JPM has 27,500 short contracts on futures prices? I started paying more attention to ZH and the politics in the precious metals space after the silver pump and dump that climaxed in April 2011. I had liquidated my retirement accounts in November 2008 and gone long silver bullion ready for a ten year hold. The price action in April 2011 wouldn't have been such a problem for me except that I had convinced some family members to buy silver in the preceding months. Some of them won't be in the black until silver is back over $41. Most people want a quick buck, and don't have the conviction of the longterm trend (e.g., a forseeable end of the current fiat currency regime) that I do. Nevertheless, I still pay attention to Sinclair and Eric King because in a FREE market without government interference, the metals would be vastly higher. This is PSYCHOLOGICAL WARFARE, or as they say at Infowars, "There is a war on for your mind" and I would add that there is a war on for your money, too. My firm belief is that we should buy, hold, hoard, and stack this stuff. Eric King, James Turk, and Jim Sinclair aren't just talking up their book, they are fighting the reptiles/principalities of darkness that seek to disgorge the populace of its metals. The game is to keep positive, stay LONG the bullion, and double down whenever there are downdrafts. You don't want to be in cash when our savings accounts are Cyprused 40% to bail-in Chase and BofA. You don't want a retirement account when it is all forcibly converted to government bonds. I've watched The Money Masters, The Secret Of Oz, Zeitgeist, and many other documentary films, and I find the unconstitutional debt instrument that is the federal reserve note to be a filthy disease carrying thing. I had a family member recently put $100K in gold at $1600/oz and now that it's down $200 per oz she is upset. I told her that if she really despises the actions of the Federal Reserve (after having her watch Russo's America: Freedom to Fascism) then why would she be waiting around to time her purchase to coincide with criminal bankster malfeasance? How moral is that? Why seek benefit from another's criminal action? It's no different than hanging on to Satan's tail. To hell with this "keep your powder dry" shit. Get all in and "maintain your position" as Kyle Bass said, and hold on tight for this wild ride over the next 10 years. The main thing is to that you are not placed in a position that you have to liquidate your PMs at an inopportune time. A few months of cash reserves and a reliable income stream are important. And have physical health. Wealth is irrelevant without that.

conspiracy documentaries

Sat, 04/20/2013 - 21:06 | Link to Comment Matt
Matt's picture

When was the gold bubble?

Sat, 04/20/2013 - 21:49 | Link to Comment ParkAveFlasher
ParkAveFlasher's picture

Never.

Sun, 04/21/2013 - 10:58 | Link to Comment Pool Shark
Pool Shark's picture

 

 

When was the gold bubble?

Right here:

http://timiacono.com/index.php/2013/04/17/apple-and-gold/

[Note: in case you're having trouble seeing it; it's that flat gold line near the bottom...] 

Sat, 04/20/2013 - 23:31 | Link to Comment jeff montanye
jeff montanye's picture

maybe in 1980 at $800 an ounce with u.s. treasuries yielding 14% at the long end and higher short, money supply contracting and u.s. total sovereign debt under a trillion.  today, not so much. 

Sat, 04/20/2013 - 21:07 | Link to Comment toys for tits
toys for tits's picture

And gold is part of Indian's religion. Or did 60 minutes get it wrong?

http://www.cbsnews.com/video/watch/?id=7398482n

Sat, 04/20/2013 - 21:31 | Link to Comment Joe Sixpack
Joe Sixpack's picture

I plotted APMEX' inventory of 100 ozt. bars on the infamous day (April 15th): CLICK HERE. Then click on the thumbnail.

Sat, 04/20/2013 - 21:32 | Link to Comment knukles
knukles's picture

Horseshit is the core of CBS's liberal pablum religion

Sun, 04/21/2013 - 07:44 | Link to Comment samcontrol
samcontrol's picture

they do pass it on when they die you know, it,s not like they eat it.

Sat, 04/20/2013 - 21:28 | Link to Comment casfoto
casfoto's picture

As Ashoga did to start the understanding of not eating cows..etc that is an entirely different matter..a totally different subject. In all advanced cultures the money has gone to the top. It is a cyclical thing. The rich learn how to control and eat more capital and protect more of their assets due to the control of the leagal system and the powers on top. But everytime, this crumbles and falls apart. History in india, China, England, Persia, all history, the cycles keep revolving. The myth of progress is in place. We just do not see it .... in France in 1788 they called Marie Antoinette "Madam Defecit" as the people lived in squalor as the wealthy urninated on them. Shortly after that the heads rolled. History repeats itself.

Sat, 04/20/2013 - 21:34 | Link to Comment knukles
knukles's picture

Sorta like Master Lord Blankfiend throwing red hot pennies off his balcony to starving urchins in the streets while cheering on the arrival of a Potful of Free Rainbow Colored Unicorn Skittle Shits in Every Household?

Sat, 04/20/2013 - 21:43 | Link to Comment DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Ahh, ahh...  That was so masterfully written, I am at a loss for words...

Sat, 04/20/2013 - 21:51 | Link to Comment Croesus
Croesus's picture

@ DoChen:

Rob: When you have a free minute, send me a quick email, please:

croesuszh AT gmail.com

Sat, 04/20/2013 - 23:37 | Link to Comment DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

It's late, but you have mail.

Sat, 04/20/2013 - 21:48 | Link to Comment Croesus
Croesus's picture

@ Rajat_bhatia: 

I am always willing to listen to the thoughts of another. Consider for a moment:

What do the Japanese stock bubble, dot com bubble, and US housing bubble all have in common? They were "speculative manias".

Why would Gold drop below $1,000? In my opinion, the paper price collapses on the realization that paper "IOU Gold" is worthless.

This will undoubtedly cause a panic sell-off out of physical from the weaker-handed buyers who are just now entering the market.

Why? In some cases, they're simply speculators. In other cases, the buyer may have an idea of why they're buying, but if they don't understand the dynamics of the Gold market, they don't understand that the "Price" doesn't matter.

As for Gold: We are nowhere near a 'speculative mania', just yet. This is just the opening act.

My advice to anyone who will listen:

Keep some "dry powder" at the ready. When the paper Gold market tanks, look for the weaker hands that are selling, and buy with both fists. That is what the Central Banks will be doing, I guarantee it.

 

 

Sat, 04/20/2013 - 23:27 | Link to Comment Jungle Jim
Jungle Jim's picture

Well, the "price" of physical 90 percent silver sure mattered plenty to me when I was finally forced to sell mine yesterday.

Sun, 04/21/2013 - 04:16 | Link to Comment gurkha108
gurkha108's picture

Jim, you gotta pretend you don't have it.  Tuck it away, and deal as if you don't have it.  Be disciplined, get on foodstamps, live in a shelter, but keep your PMs.  Throwing it away for a couple of months of rent won't materially change your situation, anyway.

Sun, 04/21/2013 - 10:03 | Link to Comment machineh
machineh's picture

How did 'keeping your PMs' work out from 1980-2001?

Twenty-one freaking years of losing two-thirds of your money ... before adjusting for inflation losses.

Those who know nothing of PM history are doomed to repeat it.

By the time gold is a solid buy again, most of the fixed-idea PM buy-and-holders will be gone from ZH. 

For now, the lopsided majority of unfalsifiable PM true believers, touting their collapsing investment as the greatest buy ever, tells you that PMs have a LOT farther to fall. 

Don't learn this lesson the hard way! Don't drink the true believer Kool-Aid. 

No investment is 'forever.' 

Sun, 04/21/2013 - 10:25 | Link to Comment HamFistedIdiot
HamFistedIdiot's picture

Trading the gold:silver ratio can help with "yield" on a PM investment. There are swings in this market and you can grow your ounces even in bearish conditions. But the timing is tricky. I've been in for almost 5 years and I've made a metals swap only once.

Sun, 04/21/2013 - 10:59 | Link to Comment Shell Game
Shell Game's picture

Okay, got your point of view.  I'm an idiot for choosing PMs as my store of value.  But let's talk again when the paper paradigm dissolves into the nothingness it is. If paper is zero and PMs are unattainable, off the market and into strong hands, what could the stores of value be valued at?  Then, let's talk again.  I'm willing to be patient and find out, and not lose one minute of sleep over it.

Sun, 04/21/2013 - 06:10 | Link to Comment auric1234
auric1234's picture

Strange top this one, it began in Aug 2011 and we're still in it?

Something smells rotten in this reasoning.

 

Sun, 04/21/2013 - 11:37 | Link to Comment Long_Xau
Long_Xau's picture

Most housewives would probably not be in a good position to:
1. Figure out which businesses are really worth investing in;
2. Be able to manage a portfolio, including real diversification;
3. Keep up with what is going on with the businesses;
4. Figure out which brokers, stock markets etc. are trustworthy and not corrupted, manipulated, etc;
5. Figure out which government is going to nationalize, regulate, outlaw or tax what and how that would affect her investments;
6. Figure out what would be the next perversions of the monetary and credit (banking) systems and how that would affect her investments;
But all housewives damn sure as hell would need to do 2 things:
1. save wealth for the future for all expenses related to raising children, for unexpected expenses like repairs, medical bills, for retirement, etc;
2. pay for daily and longer term household expenses;
In other words, investing is not for everyone, but EVERYONE needs MONEY.
The simplest solution for these two things today is buying and holding gold, i.e. a proper form of money.

While today point 2 is very rarely done in gold, I can bet you that it will be in the not too distant future. I'm not aware of a better way to make that bet than buying more gold (and silver too).

Sat, 04/20/2013 - 23:43 | Link to Comment WAMO556
WAMO556's picture

I would like to have a double quarter pounder WITH cheese!! I am ALL about eating someone else's GOD.

Sun, 04/21/2013 - 00:19 | Link to Comment zerozulu
zerozulu's picture

His screen name tells that he is good at licking his Jew boss's balls.

Sun, 04/21/2013 - 07:05 | Link to Comment toothpicker
toothpicker's picture

don't feed the troll

Sun, 04/21/2013 - 09:41 | Link to Comment DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

I assume your male based on your screen name

but good point

Sat, 04/20/2013 - 20:24 | Link to Comment Al Huxley
Al Huxley's picture

So do you think that at a certain point the central banks and old money will decide to 'cut their losses' and flood the market with physical gold, and that this is how the rational retail demand (something I want goes on sale, then I buy more of it) will be met?  Or perhaps the Indian and Asian retail public will abandon their centuries-old practice of storing wealth in gold, out of fear that, 'after all these centuries, looks like it's finally stopped working'.  After all, what do centuries of proven tradition as a store of value have when compared to the analyses of American and European bullion banks?

Sat, 04/20/2013 - 20:34 | Link to Comment rajat_bhatia
rajat_bhatia's picture

"Rational retail demand" 

LOL

 

Sat, 04/20/2013 - 20:42 | Link to Comment Al Huxley
Al Huxley's picture

Oh good one - don't answer the question, just sidetrack.  OK leave out the 'rational' part.  You figure the CB's are going to start selling their stockpiles to meet the 'crazy demand' of retail investors around the world?  If they wanted to fuck over the stupid retailers, why wouldn't they jam the price higher?  Usually when there's a big demand for something, the canny shyster selling it bumps the price up.  Don't worry if you can't answer - I'm familiar with your work here.

Sat, 04/20/2013 - 20:57 | Link to Comment rajat_bhatia
rajat_bhatia's picture

And I'm familiar with yours :-)  Loved your novel, gave me a good laugh ;-) 

Sat, 04/20/2013 - 22:15 | Link to Comment noless
noless's picture

address the question or fuck off.

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X-hYLL7Gpos

Sat, 04/20/2013 - 22:29 | Link to Comment noless
noless's picture

hit it

Sat, 04/20/2013 - 22:33 | Link to Comment HoofHearted
HoofHearted's picture

It looks like he decided on the latter. And that's probably because he has nothing for the former...

Sat, 04/20/2013 - 22:52 | Link to Comment enloe creek
enloe creek's picture

ladies, please raw in the claws. lol

Sat, 04/20/2013 - 22:43 | Link to Comment Stuck on Zero
Stuck on Zero's picture

Coin stores, in order to maintain inventory (longs) need to short paper gold to hedge their investments.  When the inventory is sold they need to cover their shorts and go long again.  That should cause some interesting wobbles in the market just ahead.

 

Sun, 04/21/2013 - 00:21 | Link to Comment OCD_AgBULL
OCD_AgBULL's picture

bitcoins

sarc

obviously

Sun, 04/21/2013 - 00:20 | Link to Comment OCD_AgBULL
OCD_AgBULL's picture

bitcoins

sarc

obviously

Sun, 04/21/2013 - 08:44 | Link to Comment Widowmaker
Widowmaker's picture

Fraud-faggot-fiat is cooked.  Slaughtered by their own handlers (opps no one saw it coming).

What will replace it is force.  Blunt or not, you won't like it.

That is the "unintended consequence" of GSE fraud money.

It used to be that the rule of law protected both sides of a transaction.  With corporate dick sucking being above the law the only thing between you and your wealth is the barrel of a gun.  Lock and load.

Wed, 04/24/2013 - 09:38 | Link to Comment auric1234
auric1234's picture

30 year treasury bonds.

 

Sat, 04/20/2013 - 20:42 | Link to Comment Uber Vandal
Uber Vandal's picture

Martin Armstrong has been calling for sub $1,000 gold as well:

http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/04/19/gold-silver/

The ONLY reason I agree with his outlook is I feel a global stock takedown, similar to 2008, in which no asset class was safe from being sold off, is getting closer than most of us would want to admit.

http://www.kitco.com/scripts/hist_charts/yearly_graphs.plx

Gold went down about 30% in the 2008 sell off, and a 30% sell off from today's prices would put us around $1000 or less. Even a 30% drop from the highest price of 2013 would put the price around $1186. Once you get down to that kind of level, how many other stops get blown out, or weak hands let go?

 

 

 

Sat, 04/20/2013 - 20:48 | Link to Comment toys for tits
toys for tits's picture

That's ridiculous since the cost of mining is well above $1000 per ounce. 

Do you honestly think that mines will continue to operate at loss for any extended period of time?

Sat, 04/20/2013 - 20:53 | Link to Comment Uber Vandal
Uber Vandal's picture

That's what I thought also, until I read this.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1355421-how-low-can-gold-go?source=email...

In 2011, the company performed well against this strategy. Barrick met its operating guidance for the ninth consecutive year, producing 7.7 million ounces of gold at total cash costs of $460 per ounce, positioning Barrick as one of the lowest-cost senior gold producers. (emphasis added)

 

Sat, 04/20/2013 - 21:09 | Link to Comment HulkHogan
HulkHogan's picture

The cost of mining makes no difference. Nat gas companies in America are fracking and selling their gas at a price well under their operating cost. And yes, I too think gold and silver have more to drop.

One last point, there is no such thing as a paper price and a physical price. Everything is worth what the market says it's worth, so the paper price is the only price that matters. I don't pretend my stash is worth more than the "we buy gold" buyers are willing to pay for it, and neither should any of my fellow ZH'ers. I hold gold and silver as an insurance policy. If shtf, then I have protection. That's it. If things get better, then I drop some of my insurance. It's just that simple.

Sat, 04/20/2013 - 21:23 | Link to Comment toys for tits
toys for tits's picture

Then please explain the substantial premium over the spot price.

Sat, 04/20/2013 - 21:35 | Link to Comment Confused
Confused's picture

I'm guessing thats what someone is willing to pay if they want it. They are charging. People are buying at that price. Hence "market" price. Its semantics at that point. 

 

 

Sun, 04/21/2013 - 06:16 | Link to Comment auric1234
auric1234's picture

There is a premium for sales too. In fact in some cases they pay you premium over spot to bring in your gold.

How's that supposed to be a market?

 

Sat, 04/20/2013 - 22:28 | Link to Comment Sean7k
Sean7k's picture

Premium has two explanations: one, whatever the market will bear. Premiums on eagles were the first to jump- because of shortages. The dealers could demand more and make more profit.

Two, premiums are a measure of the dealers confidence in comex supplying their contracts which dealers use to leverage their sales.

Sat, 04/20/2013 - 22:44 | Link to Comment Vint Slugs
Vint Slugs's picture

Your "substantial premium" relates to penny-ante odd-lot coin buyers who, regardless of whether they are selling or buying, always get hosed on the dealer spread, especially with regards to silver coins.  If one is a (gold) bullion buyer other than small quantity coins (i.e. bars), the dealer premium (from a reputable high volume dealer) is still 1 - 1.5%. 

Incidentally, the large odd-lot silver spread versus the in-size small gold spread should be sending a major message to anyone who thinks that silver is going to outperform gold.  The gold/silver ratio, currently about 61, has been generally increasing since silver was demonitized in the US 140 years ago.  When all of this fiat-gold paradigm shift is said and done with the gold/silver ratio will stand at a level that is magnitudes above its present level.

Sat, 04/20/2013 - 22:41 | Link to Comment Papasmurf
Papasmurf's picture

Apparently you believe markets cannot be manipulated. What do you make of Brent crude reaching $147/bbl in July 2008.  Weren't there tankers anchored out at sea to keep this stuff off the markets, causing a contango? 

Sat, 04/20/2013 - 22:57 | Link to Comment Vint Slugs
Vint Slugs's picture

That was a contango? 

Why don't you inform us about the current Brent backwardation?

Sun, 04/21/2013 - 00:02 | Link to Comment Prince Eugene o...
Prince Eugene of Savoy's picture

The fraud pump is blowing a market bubble as intended. Meanwhile the fiat is worth less and less. Like a skyrocket, eventually stocks will will explode and bonds will crash. I'm prepared for the worst. Good luck to you all.

Sat, 04/20/2013 - 21:09 | Link to Comment akak
akak's picture

"Cash costs" in mining are far from all-in costs.

There is nobody, NOBODY mining gold today who could or would make a profit at $460 gold.  It is insulting to even suggest as much.

Sat, 04/20/2013 - 21:44 | Link to Comment DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Yes, true dat.  ^^

Sat, 04/20/2013 - 22:44 | Link to Comment Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

Yeah right. Barrick has never told the truth about anything they do. A Den of Thieves runs that outfit.

Sun, 04/21/2013 - 21:18 | Link to Comment Imminent Crucible
Imminent Crucible's picture

One of Barrick's best whoppers from the recent past: "Our hedge book on our producing properties is completely closed out." Then the intrepid Jason Hommel read through the fine print on page 17,012 below the fold and learned that they had simply reassigned the forward sales against the "proven and probables" in their undeveloped leases.

That lie ended up costing their shareholders about $9 BILLION.

Sat, 04/20/2013 - 21:13 | Link to Comment gratefultraveller
gratefultraveller's picture

You don't really believe what Barrick's say, do you?

Looks like they pre-sold 200 million oz of unmined silver to Silver Wheaton, out of their now frozen Pascua Lama mine, at something like USD 3.85/oz.

How much gold?

What extraction costs did they calculate for those ounces? Zero?

Sun, 04/21/2013 - 00:26 | Link to Comment cynicalskeptic
cynicalskeptic's picture

The model for Silver Wheaton is to front cash for a mining endeavor in exchange for  buy rights to SECONDARY product silver.  The mining company expects to make its money off gold or copper with silver being a 'byproduct'.  Not a bad deal for a company neeidng financing.   In effect the extraction costs to the mining company for those secondary silver ounces IS close to 'zero' depending on how it's produced in the refining process for the primary metal.  The primary metal is the purpose of the mine and the extraction cost is for that.  The byproducts are relatively small incremental costs to the primary.

The question is how SW gets repaid for a mine that never opens when financing has been spent...... depends on the individual contract I guess.

Sat, 04/20/2013 - 21:15 | Link to Comment Al Huxley
Al Huxley's picture

I don't mean this as personal attack, but as an attack on the vile financial media that continues to push the envelope in the type of self-contradictory shit they put out. OK, so then supposedly they they're making 1000/oz, even now, so why is their stock (and every other miner's) performing like they're on the verge of bankruptcy.  

 

This is an example of the unadulterated bullshit that keeps getting thrown out and apparently swallowed without question.   Another 'respected industry analyst' (one of the worst purveyors of this kind of duplicitous garbage) made the same comments about silver and the silver miners - paraphrased - silver can fall a lot because the miners are making a ton of money on it due to the rapid run up in price over the past few years, but on the other hand, the miners are performing really poorly as a group right now because operating costs are so high they can't produce it profitably at this price.  You're expected to ignore the inherent contradiction there - 'black is white, 2 + 2 = 5, war is peace, slavery is freedom'.

Sun, 04/21/2013 - 21:20 | Link to Comment Imminent Crucible
Imminent Crucible's picture

Well, you know, because "ignorance is strength".

Sat, 04/20/2013 - 21:15 | Link to Comment UP Forester
UP Forester's picture

Too bad they can't mine the Pascua Lama mine anymore, the millions they spent on improving a claim that probably isn't theirs to begin with was well spent, and won't affect their per ounce price at all....

Sat, 04/20/2013 - 21:15 | Link to Comment toys for tits
toys for tits's picture

I got to the point where the author stated that he didn't believe the conspiracy theories about the smack-down.  If he's starting at that premise then he also doesn't realize the ETF GLD is a tool to suppress gold prices.

The reason why the CBs want to suppress the price of gold is because rising gold prices invalidate CBs' fucked up experiment of which we're all hostage.

If you want to read about mining costs, this article on Seeking Alpha is educational.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1346991-the-true-all-in-cost-to-mine-gol...

 

Sat, 04/20/2013 - 22:24 | Link to Comment Sean7k
Sean7k's picture

You might want to read up on Barrick's history and relationships with the bullion banks and the Rothschilds. They have quite a history and none of it works to the benefit of gold buyers.

Sun, 04/21/2013 - 01:03 | Link to Comment fuu
fuu's picture

That dude also says Zynga is a buy.

Sun, 04/21/2013 - 07:54 | Link to Comment samcontrol
samcontrol's picture

barrick is so fucked in Argentina it's ridiculous..

it is the LAST miner to invest in,,, cheaper and bigger is not better .

Sun, 04/21/2013 - 03:22 | Link to Comment Wile-E-Coyote
Wile-E-Coyote's picture

I heard production cost of mining Gold is around $1200 an oz. So what do miners do, scale up production and go for volume, I doubt it. Or reduce output to reduce costs, lay off workers; cause a drop in supply, and therefore create more shortages. If I were a miner I would do the latter if I could.

Sun, 04/21/2013 - 08:48 | Link to Comment Widowmaker
Widowmaker's picture

Propaganda driving those margins.  Stupidity in believing that shart.

Gold to its mean makes your argument naked and ignorant.

Sat, 04/20/2013 - 21:15 | Link to Comment Divine Wind
Divine Wind's picture

 

 

The price of gold may very well plunge significantly when the stock market blows up. Many will be starved for cash and in scramble mode to unload anything that can produce FRNs quickly. The rebound in the price of gold will be astonishing.

If this happens, HOLD YOUR METALS.

Those retail investors still in the stock market are essentially trying to pick up coins in front of a steam roller.

Sat, 04/20/2013 - 21:45 | Link to Comment DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Right!  Never sell your gold.  Give it away, to your children perhaps, when the time comes.

Sun, 04/21/2013 - 01:19 | Link to Comment Prometheus418
Prometheus418's picture

DoChen, 

While I admire your enthusiasm, that's a little rediculous.  It could turn out to be true, if things drag on long enough- but in an honest system where the currency is not being destroyed, productive assets are far more useful than gold.

For the love of all that's holy, don't take that as an endorsement of selling now- that would be retarded.  Gold is what it always is, sometimes it's important, sometimes it's not a big deal- right now, it's important.  Someday when it's not, I hope that either you or your kids have the sense to put it to work, rather than letting it collect dust in a vault somewhere.

Just sayin'

Sun, 04/21/2013 - 06:22 | Link to Comment auric1234
auric1234's picture

Makes sense from a individual perspective, but don't forget that uninvested money is not useless (that's keynesian propaganda), it serves a purpose as it represents unrealized debts that society has with you. As long as you don't claim them, you're liberating production resources which the economy can spend on something else.

If you don't spend it, it increases in value. Then someone else will take the risk, and use it at a higher value (thanks to you) in some investment.

Either with risk (investing) or without (hoarding), saving fosters the creation of wealth.

 

Sun, 04/21/2013 - 07:10 | Link to Comment toothpicker
toothpicker's picture

As long as we have psychopaths in charge of banking and politics gold & silver will be important, which means forever

Sun, 04/21/2013 - 09:38 | Link to Comment FreeNewEnergy
FreeNewEnergy's picture

Sorry for the ALL CAPS and BOLD, but I feel I have to shout this until people understand.

GOLD AND SILVER ARE PERFECT COLLATERAL. NO COUNTER-PARTY RISK.

Let that sink in and NEVER SELL YOUR GOLD OR SILVER (unless the price goes to the moon, maybe.)

Sun, 04/21/2013 - 11:53 | Link to Comment DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

@ Prometheus418

 

I stand by my comment to never sell (if possible) your gold.  But, I do not say (nor did I write) that you have to be at the "All Inn".  I am not, about 12% of my wealth is in physical PMs, mostly gold.

Sat, 04/20/2013 - 22:08 | Link to Comment Uber Vandal
Uber Vandal's picture

That is what my point is.

Wait for the price to come down, then load up.

We shall see if Martin Armstrong was correct about April 22, 2013 being a significant day or not very soon.

I got a call from one of my contacts, for they got some pre 1933 coins in.

I asked why in the world someone would be selling now, and he said his customer lost his job, and needed the cash, now.

 

 

Sun, 04/21/2013 - 00:54 | Link to Comment HulkHogan
HulkHogan's picture

Deflation, then I expect hot inflation (not hyperinflation) and finallly sometype of soft, worldwide currency. Something like all bonds will be backed by gold, or oil, or timber, or land, or whatever natural resource a particular country has a lot of. By the year 2020 we will be ready to begin another raging bull market - worldwide. Of course, predictions are made by the ignorant, so take this as wishful thinking.

Sun, 04/21/2013 - 09:45 | Link to Comment DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

i did the same thing in 2006...unfortunately

Sun, 04/21/2013 - 07:26 | Link to Comment new game
new game's picture

it will just create more conversion of asswipe fiat for gold and acellerate the proccess to implosion.

see what he don't understand is the faith, the faith, the FAITH is gone, lost by the actions of corzine and the justice department and recent events in cyprus and elsewhere(zealand, canada to name a few).

the great dolla demise has started! they know it as their actions are more and more desparate.

they will enact laws to try to regulate gold, just like guns. see the trend! gold, guns and ammo.

when banks print and buy gold directly then you know it is warp speed unravil.

growing base of non-believers will hit a point of eclipse and it be all over for the ruling bankster class.

buy gold as millions around the globe are doing to preserve wealth, as bankers slowly lose control.

governments will try even more desparate actions; outright consfication of asswipe fiat at the toilet bowl factory of shit paper.

banks will become the outhouse that no one wants to go to but once-get all the asswipe out and convert to gold.

your vote is critical-withdraw fiat asswipe and buy gold. that was easy...

Sun, 04/21/2013 - 09:40 | Link to Comment Diogenes
Diogenes's picture

Gold has already dropped 30%. 1348 is 70% of 1927. Any time you can buy @ 30% to 40% off you are on pretty safe ground.

Sat, 04/20/2013 - 21:31 | Link to Comment ActionFive
ActionFive's picture

Buy the lie

Sat, 04/20/2013 - 21:54 | Link to Comment noless
noless's picture

next week will be fun, a fucking metric lot of awakends.. but yeah, get set for complacent volatility or whatever. reality is setting in.

Sun, 04/21/2013 - 07:04 | Link to Comment new game
new game's picture

they have 1 roll of paper asswipe that they can loan 9 more rolls against. but asswipes goes into real assets like gold, the system slowly implodes. not  enough asswipe to cover their ass with 9 rolls barrowed and people converting asswipe to gold. no rolls at the shitter and bankster have to shit too.  widespread bad shit with no rolls to cover withdrawls of rolls for future shit.  shitters keep shitting ya know.

see, that is what they fear because they have only one roll of ass wipe for some awfull big assholes.  short asswipe, and going to get a lot worse when the shit is all over there balance statements and they can't even eat shit. their toilet roll machine has a lot of shit to wipe but is shrinking faster than they can get asswipes to trust there will be good quality rolls of asswipe by the asswipes that produce more shit paper...

something tells me you will be able to buy one hella of lot of asswipe for an ounce of gold very soon.

italians. are you listening?  you are the next losers in the asswipe game.  supose you could quit eating then you don't need asswipes...

Sun, 04/21/2013 - 10:57 | Link to Comment Agstacker
Agstacker's picture

Check out what the prices are on ebay if you think they are going for anywhere near spot price.  It's a good place to see what people are willing to pay for the real thing.

Sun, 04/21/2013 - 11:37 | Link to Comment spine001
spine001's picture

I think its going lower that why I am stagering my buying of it...

Sun, 04/21/2013 - 14:01 | Link to Comment Market Rage
Market Rage's picture

The technicals don't disagree with that.  Nor does the fact that it's the biggest one-sided trade ever.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!