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QBAMCO On Unreserved Credit Growth And Imperial Constraint

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Authored by Lee Quaintance and Paul Brodsy of QBAMCO,

Imperial Constraint

“Crucifixion can be discussed philosophically until they start driving the nails.”
- Wallace Stegner

This piece seeks to make the economic case for savers to allocate wealth to physical gold (in proper form) and for investors to allocate capital to precious metal miners. Our argument orients readers with our economic and market predispositions, seeks to explain current macroeconomic events within that context, outlines gold’s fundamental valuation framework, and then applies that framework to gold and various financial asset investment choices. The piece is long and may be best consumed at home.

Hypothesis: Due to decades of unreserved credit growth that temporarily boosted the appearance of sustainable economic growth and prosperity, rational economic behavior cannot produce real (inflation-adjusted) economic growth from current levels. The nominal sizes of advanced economies have grown far larger than the rational scope of production that would be needed to sustain them. This fundamental problem explains best the current state of affairs: malaise (i.e., bank system de-leveraging and economic stagnation) spreading through the means of production and the need for increasing policy intervention to stabilize goods, service and asset prices (by depressing the first three and inflating the last?).

Observations

1. Most of the last forty years represented a golden age of financial asset investing that is unlikely to be repeated for a very long time. Consider that the last generation benefitted greatly from a unique combination of factors, including:

  • a global monetary system that for the first time (1971) allowed currency to be created entirely in the banking system through lending activities, without material constraint
  • a generation of declining global interest rates coincident with perpetually easy credit conditions (beginning in 1981)
  • very little initial debt on household and government balance sheets as a percentage of assets and income (i.e., leverage-able balance sheets)
  • the building need for post-war baby boomers to invest for retirement
  • the advent and maturing of asset securitization, asset-backed securities, and the high yield bond market, which broadly expanded systemic credit and debt distribution
  • new market technologies that reduced trading and monitoring costs and provided greater access to equity and fixed income markets
  • great technological and scientific innovations with commercial applications, which captured equity investor imaginations
  • the opening of previously closed large economies to Western commerce and financial assets
  • economic policies seeking near-term nominal GDP growth as a first priority, including central bank backstopping of market losses

2. The combination of factors above set the stage for a financial asset investment culture in which the markets could emphasize nominal growth over real growth and risk-adjusted profitability. (Indeed, record credit creation and debt assumption demanded that economies sustain asset price inflation so the value of bank loan books and bond portfolios could be sustained.)

3. Established equity indexes, weighted by market capitalization, further motivated equity market investors to seek nominal growth and de-emphasize real profits. Dedicated equity investors, such as pension and mutual funds, endowments, foundations, insurers, etc., judge their performance against these indexes. Thus, the great majority of sponsoring capital in the stock market has had incentive to reward increasing market caps over increasing profitability. (Although more independent investors have been in the position to try to time and re-allocate their investments more freely than indexed or closet indexed investors, they too have been unable to escape the pull of general market behavior towards increasing market caps.)

4. The emphasis on ever-increasing market caps further directed the incentive structure among listed businesses to continually increase their market caps. Top-line revenue is most easily increased by leveraging corporate balance sheets. Thus, competition for market share and investor sponsorship accelerated corporate debt assumption as a secular business model.

Equity markets, theoretically meant to 1) aid in forming capital and 2) perpetually price the value of the means of producing that capital, instead gradually came to ignore return-on-capital metrics in favor of quarterly share performance. Real return investing suffered. Given their implicit tether to market-cap weighted equity indexes, the values of publicly traded businesses were generally punished when they shrunk their revenues to become profitable. (Private businesses, on the other hand, were under no such pressures and could behave rationally.)

5. Despite being major shareholders of publicly traded companies, professional asset managers are compensated through a percentage of the nominally priced assets they manage. As a result, they too have had commercial disincentive to encourage public businesses they have stakes in to emphasize profits over market cap growth (unless they are already distressed), and have no incentive to lobby equity index publishers to change the way they calculate their indexes.

6. There is no longer an economic “message of the market.” As a result of the financial market incentives and their influence over business behavior noted above, it has become reasonable to separate nominal stock market performance from real economic growth and the expectations for it. More recently, derivative and technology-driven equity trading strategies have boosted trade volume many times its organic level, and central bank financial repression (i.e., bond monetization) has supported bond and stock prices (i.e., bigness). These trends have further obscured economic signals the markets historically provided.

Presently, there are no public financial markets that value businesses or future income streams within the context of capital formation of their broader economies. Financial markets have become discrete exchanges of abstract relative value in which “investors” are forced to chase short-term relative nominal returns.

7. There is no commonly perceived place to save risk-free. Saving at a bank has not been a rational alternative to investing in financial markets given that modern economies have inflationary models supported by perpetually easy credit conditions. This, in turn, has ensured diminishing purchasing power for savers of modern currencies. Only recently (2008) has this become obvious. Central banks’ zero interest rate policies (“ZIRPs”) have pinned benchmark interest rates near zero, producing obvious negative real interest rates. Thus, conventionally storing one’s wealth in cash or in fixed-income instruments offers little or no sanctuary for unlevered investors looking to maintain or increase future purchasing power.

8. The almost complete blending of financial markets with financial media has lent the markets a patina of transparency, constancy and stability. Financial media provides market (not commercial) news to a small niche audience (CNBC’s “Squawk Box” reaches only 150,000 viewers on a good day), and serves as a platform for monetary and fiscal policy communications. Major corporate earnings and economic data releases have come to resemble made-for-TV sporting events and provide a thin financial narrative. Thus, a small investor class controlling significant perceived wealth is forced to abide by consensus macroeconomic perceptions, which do not necessarily reflect true structural commercial and economic forces.

9. Organizations that produce economic data are closely tied to organizations executing fiscal and monetary policies. Whether or not the data are managed or manipulated, as is increasingly suspected by observers, they are produced and released in a manner that evokes predictable responses from financial markets, which in turn send popularly understood (yet potentially erroneous or incomplete) economic signals. The net result for economic policy makers is that their policies are relatively easy to sell to the public. A declining headline unemployment rate or increasing home sales figures are positive political and media events, regardless of declining employment participation rates or stagnant mortgage applications, and regardless of the millions of people experiencing lifestyle distress in diametric opposition to what the data imply.

10. The common perception of economic and commercial health established by policy makers through financial management and media, and supported by financial market participants, defines ongoing economic and commercial reality, regardless of whether it is sustainable.

Analysis: These observations lead us to the unscientific conclusion that we live and work in a contrived meta-economy that can be managed through narrow channels in financial and state capitals. We do not dispute that perception is reality; however, we argue there is growing social dissension from the significant gap separating the popular perception of self-determinism through free markets (and the sustainability of economic cyclicality and wealth that implies), from the burgeoning awareness that the sustainable values of our production and assets are being managed, and that the current trajectory of our economies might not support the future needs and expectations of the masses.

Over time our meta-economies have produced great debt and economic malinvestment (too many homes and home contractors, not enough competitive manufacturing; too much insurance, not enough affordable health care; too many bond traders, not enough engineers), and a boom/bust global economic model that may be more accurately defined as an oscillating leveraging cycle (discussed in more detail un “Burning Matches,” below).

Future “prosperity” now relies on a battery of central bankers directing monetary policies consistent with the expectations of their sponsoring banking systems and governments. This, in turn, implies that the best interests of the means of production, along with savers and unlevered investors, must be in line with those of their banking systems and governments. The weight of overwhelming evidence does not bear this presumption out: the balance sheets of governments and of banks and other levered investors have clearly taken priority over the masses they ostensibly serve.

Now that economies are being forced to de-lever, nominal entities (those perpetually leveraged, such as banks) are the recipient of central bank policy support (e.g., bank reserve creation via targeted asset purchases), while unlevered savers and investors are left to manage their own affairs. Meanwhile, governments that failed to properly regulate banking systems’ credit policies, and that failed to enforce fiscal policies consistent with the long-term sustainability of their economies, have begun aggressively seeking relief from central bank money creation capabilities and from their non-bank private sectors (e.g., the Cyprus bail-in, which confiscates bank deposits and fiscal provisions like the 2014 White House budget, which proposes capping retirement savings).

Credit for a significant portion of past prosperity, as well as blame for the widespread, unsustainable economic leverage it has led to today, rests with the entire political spectra across modern liberal democracies that perpetuated finance-based economies incapable of serving their societies’ long-term interests. Such is the social cognitive dissonance of over-levered societies living under over-levered governments.

Simply, prosperity was pulled forward through economic leveraging and the only ways to reconcile that now are to either let the nominal value of the general price level (GPL) deflate, or inflate the quantity of the total money stock (which deflates the value of our labor, goods, services and assets in real terms to varying relative degrees). Conventional fiscal or monetary policy solutions cannot fix what ails over-levered global economies today. This implies any notion of economic or market cyclicality is misguided.

It is obvious that global economic and market environments are in great transition, no longer defined by financial cycles, and it is further obvious (to some) that fiscal and monetary policy makers are almost out of unconventional ideas. Debtor governments are funding themselves through the almost infinite balance sheets of central banks. Financial asset markets are being funded by newly created bank reserves and the noblesse oblige of captive dedicated investors mandated to seek relative nominal returns, rather than investing with an eye toward capital formation and purchasing power enhancement. It is against this backdrop that we ask the question: are there really unpredictable market shocks or are investors not paid to care?

Given the overwhelming past misallocation of capital cited above, we think the most important realization for investors in the current environment is that price levels of goods, services and assets may be biased to rise but they are not sustainable in real (inflation-adjusted) terms. Due to the unknowable sustainable value of the currencies in which they are denominated, projected growth rates can only be valued relative to each other. As such, financial assets do not necessarily provide a path to secular capital or wealth creation, only to coincident relative financial returns amid ever increasing currency dilution. We think the real value of interest rates and all investables should be calculated by discounting nominal rates and asset prices by past and necessary future money stock growth (reserves plus unreserved deposits). (Please see “Gold as a Rational Investment in Advance of Manifest Inflation,” below.)

We believe most investors today intuit the following: the global financial asset markets have captured virtually all of the perceived wealth in the West => as a result, the markets’ health and continued funding has become the first priority of policy makers => this perceived economic imperative allows monetary policy makers to ensure their economies do not contract in nominal terms (without regard for real growth or real return-on-assets) => the smart play (i.e., “the wisdom of crowds”) suggests it is wisest to keep one’s wealth in levered financial markets.

The crowd is ignoring the obvious and will miss great opportunity, in our view. Today’s negative real interest rates amid one of the most inflationary global monetary regimes on record presents a rare chance to capture significant Alpha if/when the monetary system resets again (which we argue it must).

Full in-depth article (PDF) below:

QBAMCO - Imperial Constraint

 

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Sun, 04/21/2013 - 17:33 | 3481358 agent default
agent default's picture

Summary: Buy gold.

Sun, 04/21/2013 - 18:19 | 3481467 Zer0head
Zer0head's picture

This obscure post during the mayhem earlier this week looks like it may now have legs and one more Vulva on the Doomsters wall

 

from April 16

Nouriel Roubini: 'Sleeper cell' behind Boston attack

http://www.politico.com/blogs/media/2013/04/roubini-sleeper-cell-behind-... 

 

" Roubini cited "informed sources."" https://twitter.com/Nouriel/status/323981907933147136

 

__________________________

 

 

April 21

Roubini Tweets https://twitter.com/Nouriel/status/325983783784435712

Boston bombers: FBI hunting 12-strong terrorist “sleeper cell” linked to brothers Tamerlan and Dzhokhar Tsarnaev   http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/boston-bombers-fbi-hunting-12-strong-1844844

Sun, 04/21/2013 - 19:45 | 3481737 My Days Are Get...
My Days Are Getting Fewer's picture

Even if you an unacredited member of Mossad, you can still speak with authority

Sun, 04/21/2013 - 18:42 | 3481539 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

agent default

Yes, buy gold.  But, I would not buy the miners.  Gold has fewr risks than the miners do, the latter can have their properties nationalized or taxed more heavily.  We will see if Peru starts playing those games...

If you must play the miners, you might invest in mine equipment stocks.  Political risk is mostly out of that equation.

 

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 00:11 | 3482588 rosiescenario
rosiescenario's picture

Or, you may wish to play the miners located in North America and Canada.

 

One major factor (which I see very rarely discussed) will be the diminishing supply of gold coming from So. Africa. So that shall end up benefitting those other miners as well as theorectically driving up the "price" of gold.

 

If I were to choose a pm to actually take physical possession of, it would be platinum. There are only about 4 mines in the world that supply the major amount of that extremely rare metal and So. Africa is the home of the largest. In addition the historic platinum to gold premium is currently not reflected in the market. Whenever this has happened in the past it has proven to be better to own platinum.

 

As you know from your business, there are many industrial applictions where platinum is the only metal to use. Historically the Asians have favored platinum over gold for jewelery, too.

 

 

Sun, 04/21/2013 - 19:33 | 3481704 freewolf7
freewolf7's picture

and silver

Sun, 04/21/2013 - 17:41 | 3481373 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

     I hear there's a new curriculum being circulated at 'Ivey League' Skools. It's called "Exploring GAAP Quantum Principles".

 The new GAAP principles being, ' Generally Accepted Accounting Ponzi'.

Sun, 04/21/2013 - 17:48 | 3481397 Monedas
Monedas's picture

Third !

Sun, 04/21/2013 - 17:56 | 3481421 Black Markets
Black Markets's picture

The thing is with capital allocation it's all about timing.

You cannot declare one course of action correct and if it means being in an underwater contrarian position for huge periods of time.

You must consider the opportunity cost of your decisions. Everybody has their own opportunity costs which means that there is no single financial strategy that applies to a wide number of people.

People need to figure out their own timing and their own execution. And also there is a need to own a mixture of productive assets and safety assets. Because the is an opportunity cost to abstaining from productive assets.

Also people need to manage their acid test ratio. You should no have all your capital in a single market that could suffer a liquidity crisis or be frozen, this would force you and other to liquidate under duress.

You need to maintain a suitable stock of highly liquid capital (cash) in order to meet you obligations without being a forced seller.

It's a very nuanced and personal thing, and it always amazes me when I see someone offering blind advice or blind opinion on what others should do.

Sun, 04/21/2013 - 18:15 | 3481468 DormRoom
DormRoom's picture

Gold may be a store of value but it does not have the other two properties of a currency: unit of measure, or unit of exchange.

The G7 has organized itself around the USD being the world reserve currency.  Gold is a hedge on the decline of Western civilization, the end of the G7, and the end of the US-EU-Japan trifecta.  It could take a couple of decades before that could happen, if at all. Until then margins will be called on paper plays. And you may be too old to enjoy your physical gold spoils.

For gold bugs the problem isn't if the thesis is correct, but if you'll be alive to witness the return of a gold standard, and the shapes of things to come.  You may get your lauded gold standard, but the world may plunge into a new dark age at the same time.

 

Sun, 04/21/2013 - 18:25 | 3481493 WmMcK
WmMcK's picture

It could take a couple of decades before that could happen ...

Having children does change your perspective.

You may be too old to enjoy your physical gold ...

I enjoy it now and will never be too old to take pleasure in starving this beast.

Sun, 04/21/2013 - 18:50 | 3481563 Vint Slugs
Vint Slugs's picture

@WmMck

One of the most grave mistakes that one can make it to be thinking linearly in a non-linear environment.

Sun, 04/21/2013 - 19:30 | 3481692 My Days Are Get...
My Days Are Getting Fewer's picture

Last night, a child was born and grandpa has to give a gift for the child's future.  What do you give:

A 1 oz Credit Suisse gold bar with an assay certificate

$1,400 in US Dollar cash or the equivalent in Euros, Yen, Yuan, Pounds or whatever

A US Dollar Savings bond in the equivalent amount

The cash equivalent in a paper AAPL stock certificate

Ditto amount in NJ Turnpike bond certificates

The equivalent in GS preferred, interest bearing stock certificates (WB is your friend)

 

Sun, 04/21/2013 - 18:00 | 3481436 Tinky
Tinky's picture

sorry, meant to post elsewhere

Sun, 04/21/2013 - 18:03 | 3481445 ShrNfr
ShrNfr's picture

Go my son and sin no more.

Sun, 04/21/2013 - 18:01 | 3481443 ShrNfr
ShrNfr's picture

As long as the money in circulation grows at the rate of the population, things can usually wind up ok. It is only when the money is debased in what backs it, be that the labor and so forth that mined the gold or silver, or the labor of the population whose labor backs the money, that things go south. In any event, if somebody refuses to accept your currency or demands a discount because they think it will be worth less later, then you are in deep shit, I do not care what backs it. Metals have historically had a somewhat fixed value in terms of labor to mine them. That is why they are normally accepted. But by the same token, I can demand that you pay me in chickens and you can keep your gold. You see, it is hard to eat.

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 01:12 | 3482666 bonin006
bonin006's picture

This is a correct as stated, but probably attracting junks since governments always debase the currency in the end.

Sun, 04/21/2013 - 18:11 | 3481459 Killer the Buzzard
Killer the Buzzard's picture

Gold beeyotches.

Sun, 04/21/2013 - 18:29 | 3481500 Van Halen
Van Halen's picture

I'm going to apologize for threadjacking, but I thought it was important. Slovenia has released a statement saying that all is OK, they aren't about to be the next Cyprus.

http://news.yahoo.com/slovenia-insists-not-next-cyprus-063544054.html

The denial is in. We all know what comes next. I would bet that Slovenian high level officials and bankers are frantically moving their money out of the country as I write this.

Sun, 04/21/2013 - 18:34 | 3481527 The Invisible Foot
The Invisible Foot's picture

"Buy, Buy, Buy!"- Paper Bugs

"Sell, Sell, Sell!"-Paper Bugs

 

Sun, 04/21/2013 - 19:02 | 3481604 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

I've shifted a lot of assets to physical Gold and Silver in my possession and in the miners.

I don't care if they lose value in the short term or even medium term; I am thumbing my nose (er...flipping off?) the central bankers who seem determined to rape savers and taxpayers while enriching the bankers they serve.

In the vernacular; "FUCK THAT!" AND "FUCK THEM!"

Sun, 04/21/2013 - 20:21 | 3481833 WhiteNight123129
WhiteNight123129's picture

Very good piece from Brodsky and Quaintance.

Those guys should run the new US monetary authority formed on the model of the Hong-Kong Monetary Authority and run a peg like Hong-Kong, but this time a peg on Gold.

Then the US mint could use the lower band of the peg, you bring your gold bars and get some newly denominated coins, go aroudn and spend your Gold. That would be a real boost to teh economy.

 

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