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US GDP Will Be Revised Higher By $500 Billion Following Addition Of "Intangibles" To Economy
Those who have been following the US debt to GDP ratio now that the US officially does not have a debt ceiling indefinitely, may have had the occasional panic attack seeing how this country's leverage ratio is rapidly approaching that of a Troika case study of a PIIG in complete failure. And at 107% debt/GDP no explanations are necessary. Luckily, the official gatekeepers of America's economic growth (with decimal point precision), the Bureau of Economic Analysis have a plan on how to make the US economy, which is now growing at an abysmal 1.5% annualized pace, or about 5 times slower than US debt growing at 7.5% annually, catch up: magically make up a number out of thin air, and add it to the total. And it literally is out of thin air: according to the FT the addition will constitute of a one-time addition of intangibles, amounting to 3% of total US GDP, or more than the size of Belgium at $500 billion, to the US economy.
The US economy will officially become 3 per cent bigger in July as part of a shake-up that will see government statistics take into account 21st century components such as film royalties and spending on research and development.
Billions of dollars of intangible assets will enter the gross domestic product of the world’s largest economy in a revision aimed at capturing the changing nature of US output.
Brent Moulton, who manages the national accounts at the Bureau of Economic Analysis, told the Financial Times that the update was the biggest since computer software was added to the accounts in 1999.
“We are carrying these major changes all the way back in time – which for us means to 1929 – so we are essentially rewriting economic history,” said Mr Moulton.
What exactly will constitute GDP growth going forward? In a word, intangibles: films, books, magazines and iTunes songs.
“We’re capitalising research and development and also this category referred to as entertainment, literary and artistic originals, which would be things like motion picture originals, long-lasting television programmes, books and sound recordings,” said Mr Moulton.
At present, R&D counts as a cost of doing business, so the final output of Apple iPads is included in GDP but the research done to create them is not. R&D will now count as an investment, adding a bit more than 2 per cent to the measured size of the economy.
Nothing like adding intangibles in the fluid, ever-changing definition of what constitutes an economy.
Naturally, the only reason for this artificial "boost" to the US economy which apparently can be any old arbitrary number agreed upon by a few accountants, and which always goes up post revision, never down, is to make US debt/GDP under 100% once again, if only very briefly. Surely a few months later something else can be "added" to GDP making the US economy appear better than it is once more.
Finally, all of the above is a distraction for idiots.
As most people should know by know (this logically excludes economists), the only factor leading to economic "growth" is the expansion of liabilities of the financial system, whereby new credit (in a healthy environment, not one centrally-planned by several Princeton real-world rejects, where the central bank is forced to create all credit expansion with money that never leaves the banks and the capital markets closed loop) creates new money, creates demand for products and services, and circulates in the economy.
This can be seen in the chart below which shows the nearly perfect correlation between total bank liabilities in the US, as per the Fed's Flow Of Funds report, and total US GDP.
Bottom line: the BEA can capitalize air consumption if it thinks it will make US GDP soar, but unless new credit and bank liabilities are created not due to forced supply but demand, and unless the private financial sector is finally willing to start lending money (which for the entire duration of QE it has not) US growth will stall and then proceed to decline.
Case in point: total US commerical bank loans are still lower than they were the day Lehman filed.
In other words, all the GDP "growth" since the Lehman failure has come on the back of money "created" by the Fed.
And there are still those who think the Fed will ever unwind...
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Intangibles, seasonal adjustments, etc etc. They'll do whatever it takes.........
what intangibles? the bullshit ability of the BLS and the Fed?
Intangible: SEE HOPIUM
Fabulous. Yet more Banana Tree Republic crap from the failed status quo of America. Yeah....more of that nonsense, please.
It must be serious now. You know what that means.
Funny statement from Tyler: "Finally, all of the above is a distraction for idiots."
This honestly reads like something from The Onion.
I give up.
Fractional reserve GDP. Nice.
And the biggest GDP lie of all are "imputations"
or transactions that never even happened. Like the rent you should have paid yourself if you own your home. Or your free checking, which you should have paid for.
http://www.bea.gov/faq/?faq_id=488
Hey! I like that. I think I will lend myself $1 trillion.
I am now an 'imputed' trillionaire!!!
"Hey Rocky. Watch me pull a rabbit out of my hat."
"Again?"
"Nothing up my sleeve. Presto!........Whoops. Gotta get me another hat."
That trick never works.
LOL
The Bureau of Economic Analysis would have you believe otherwise. :)
Next addition coming January 2014 when the latest additions fail to revise Current Abysmal Growth* will be
Hope
Charity
Goodwill
Joyous Frivolities
Happiness
Sound Sleep
Wet Doggie Noses
Talking Parrots
Christmas Cheer (to be revised into Kwanza)
Patriotism
Past Advances in Social Justice
What could go wrong?
Yes, no questions about it, considering the quality of records kept since 1929
Fucking Idiocy
*remember, the net long term effect will generally be a one time jump in the accumulated GDP figures and become increasingly less with the passage of time which the BLS, et al will readjust with annual millennial readjustments (no such thing to yet be invented and itself added to the New Shit)
Nothing that any Good Olde Bond Guy can't cope with (as in ignore)
Cunts
PS. All my uber-liberal buds are gonna trumpet this as a Miracle of The Messiah, his very own little self, ain't shit grand
Krugman'll have a 4 hour purple throbber.
PSS By God's Wounds I hate these fucking people.
COOKING THE FUCKING BOOKS AGAIN
In other words, Obozonomics.
On occasional, Boris is like long hot bath and is make steamy bubble of similar intangible.
As it stands right now, oil and gas production account for about 1% of GDP. If we add all of the noxious hot air being produced in Washington we can certainly boost GDP by another trillion annually. Then if we can include the bullsh-t manufactured by the MSM we will have our debt/GDP ratio down to under 50%.
Quantifying MSM bullshit would take an einstein like figure and a 50 year period for people to understand the complex equations involved... Ive tried myself but always get NAN or infinity...
I think you for got to add "dropping a deuce" to that list
Please to add the "intangilbe" of ignoring Reality (well, until the consequences of said ignoring bites everyone's head off...)
INTANGIBLES .. see BITCOIN !!!
.. so the FED's monetizing Bitcoin now? /sarc
hehe!!
If they simply counted FED UST monetizations they could solve their GDP problem instantly.
Does this mean I should buy those DJIA 16k August Calls?
Economists have just discovered a crucial element in economic growth calculation. It's called the “add a few zeros effect”. This occurs when there is actually no economic growth which leads to what economists call “reduction in fantastical ideas of DOW 30K and subsequent stampeed out of stawks”. The economists influence the interdependency of this closed system loop by adjusting the data upwards.
Unfortunately, this engenders an augmentative feedback system so the data requires constant adjustment upwards in order to maintain ever increasing levels of hysterical economic fantasy. The loop then spirals out of control and millions of brainwashed muppets are swept up into the self-perpetuating vortex of absolute insanity.
So, in summary, we can count on the support of 90% of the population (#WINNING!)
I've had both of my legs imputed.
No, but I suspect that we will not be hearing anything about "Core GDP" anytime soon.
Imputed...is like retroactive taxation with an infinite accounting Forward matrix kicker...lol.
I take it all back, fuck the lawyers, kill the accountants first.
At first they came for accountant, then they came for lawyer, then they came for banker. When all gone, no one is remain to screw me.
Boris is have enjoinment of hot chick from Ukraine, then. :>D
Boris is love wife, even if not "hot chick". Boris learn in youth keep kielbasa in trouser.
I thought intangibles meant all the gold in Ft. Knox.....
Let's add Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, food stamps and welfare to GDP while we're at it. The books will always balance then.
NoDebt: They already do. It's called "redirection"
http://www.bea.gov/faq/?faq_id=488
Stackers- thanks for the link. I read it 3 times. I'm a recovering economist, so it's not like I'm completely illiterate in such things. But, man, that was a lot weirder than what they taught me back in Macro Econ!
If I can summarize what I think I learned..... GDP is a worthless statistic. Am I close?
If you own your house, guess what- you are contributing to GDP because your house is paying you a "market housing value" every single month (do you feel richer?). Government health care counts as GDP even though it's clearly a zero-sum game being taken from those actually producing. Collecting royalties on a movie are now GDP with the recent revisions, above.
Shit, the whole damned economy could be nothing but rich people (or government) owning everything plus government transfer payments and GDP would still be clicking right along without a blip!
I think I see where this is headed now. "Passive" activities are given more and more weight in GDP relative to "active" um...... activities. Ok, ok, stupid way of describing it, but you get what I'm saying. Since more and more people are getting by via passive sources we just include those passive sources in GDP..... problem solved! We could all sit on our couches getting government payments (or collecting royalties, rents, etc.), producing nothing.... and GDP is blind to that.
No wonder it feels like a depression but the "statistics" don't show it. They're built NOT to show it!
Seriously, thank you for the link. I need to go reexamine my whole life now.
GDP is the $ amt of domestically produced goods and services. I'm surprised they're not adding to GDP every time a baby is born in the US.
But America is kill babies - or import from Mexico. This is to hurtful of GDP, no!?
GDP is only counts domestically produced babies. Babies imported from Mexico is not count in GDP. Is not help GDP and is not hurt GDP.
I wonder if the GDP is increased when I cut my own lawn? Or when I cut my neighbor's lawn and she bakes a pie and gives it to me.
Thus far we have not been forced to declare such interactions as income.
Wow, that is unreal.
Assumedly this (maybe this is a bad example, actually) 'service' provided without charge is built into the 'cost' of banking, as in the lower interest rate they give you? Assuming that its not built in, the bank offers it for free, but the govt will assign a value to it to add to GDP? How much is a ketchup packet at McD's worth? Is that factored in also? Why not?
Wait, I think I know. Maybe because it will show how important said banks are to GDP? This is why theyre tbtf! If I open a free checking account at every bank that has no minimum with $.01, think of how much I'll be adding to GDP! I am a GDP mulitplying force to be reckoned with! Do your part!
The real question is, what would GDP be without these numbers added in?
No, no, no, of course not. Dont you see the value of a free service? You should be happy to be a valued customer of (strikethru not working?) serve a TBTF bank!
So,...
If I'm reading this correctly; we should all steal ketchup packets from McDonalds to help increase GDP?
Wow! What would be the effect if we also broke a window on the way out?
Now you are get clue. If is work together, can break many shop windows and all is get rich!
Unreal is right. Take R&D. Commerically successful R&D produces value in terms of the value it adds to product sales. R&D is an intermediate service. If you count the spending as a final service, then you would be double counting as the the full value of the extra sales from the R&D that facilitated that output are already counted. In that case, you should subtract the R&D expenses from the value of output already sold in prior years. Don't see em doing that, so double counting!
"The economy" is but an abstraction. It's measurement managed by unproductive bureacrats who work for yet another abtraction (The People), by producing absolutely nothing. Go with that which is real.
Mmm, crazee pills (eat 'em by the handful!)
Yeah. The happy feeling we get when the stock market rises. The wealth effect. Look around. Isn't everyone 500 billion worth of happy.
Looks like the Fed's haven't run out of tricks yet. Funny the stock market is going down today since it's been announced.
They should simply account for the cost of fuel for Ben's helicopter. And ink. And cotton and paper. That would raise GDP by a huge percentage.
They're gonna add that next month, a one-time (honest!) Inclusion to the GDP under "Incidentals". $1 trillion ought to do it.
If they would add in under-the-table payments, graft, shakedowns, extortion, Congressional gratuities, Senatorial kickbacks, House of Reps free corporate travel perks, benefits for legislation, Vatican Bamk account interest gleaned by staffers, Bahamian stock shorts by Whitehouse staffer insiders, and mysterious foil wrapped refrigerator packages they could boost the GDP by another 5-10%.
Yes you can make this up
Now Japan can add breathing t o their CPI
Do they still use cotton to make FRNs? I didn't realize they had something physical in them.
Maybe it's time to distinguish between FRNs - physical pieces of paper with ink smeared on them - and dollars. FRNs are just a claim to dollars, while dollars are just a ledger entry at the Federal Reserve.
FRNs have some intrinsic value. They can be repurposed for use as toilet paper, to help fuel a cooking fire, or held and sold as a novelty (like the Nigerian 2 trillion dollar notes) after the US dollar is replaced by a new monetary unit. The ledger entry is nothing more than some magnetic domains on a disk drive in some data center.
Forward (over the cliff)!
Intangibles? Is that like Hummels and Franklin Mint plates?
I hope someone gets a Nobel prize for this. Its brilliant. Kinda like a giant red easy button!
I can get behind this intangible calculation.
Cool, now they have to resort to imaginary numbers (i) hahahaha, one thing is for sure, the US gov are a set of funny Bozos
Go ahead and squeeze the wheeze.
I find your lack of faith disturbing.
More viagra
Jesus Christ. LawsofPhysics is going to stroke out when he reads this....
As long as we're using accounting tricks, how about Goodwill??
I know we've used all ours up, just sayin'.
repost
There will never be a shortage of intangibles ...
so we got that goin' for us.
This insures that GDP figures will continue to look great as the Middle Class Disappears, and the Dollar becomes worthless.
the only intangible left for the Various States of Detroitification is WHEN it will be all DETROITIFIED, it's not IF but WHEN at this point
Yes, lets print intangibles now ... printing dollars does no good.
As a guy I work with says: "If you change the way you measure, then all of the data that preceded the change is worthless".
He's absolutely correct. I used to measure my penis in inches, then switched to centimeters as that number sounds much better, and women have no idea what the metric system is.
Now I measure displacement in a beaker of water, and report size in cubic centimeters.
Thats a brilliant idea! Im going to look up the combined atomic weight of mine straight away!
Intangible is bang on.
"Tangible" is so 2012.
No shame these people. Change the rules until they are meaningless.
And now they don't even try to hide it, so you know it's getting really bad.
Won't be long now. <----- I've been saying that for a long time now.
'Rules?!?!?! WHAT Rules?"
... and shorts get roasted again. Go long materials and miners but don't short, you are pissing against the wind.
If you review miners after 1929, they started rising at about the 5 year mark and then went parabolic.
But then again they didn't have the etf's nor crazy QE diverting funds away.
Itunes. I fucking knew it. I kept saying we were in a depression but all my data was ex itunes.
I bet you left out nail salons as well.
Oh just pile on now that all my data is sucpect....
Don't feel bad, the BLS did for about a decade as well.
Don't know if "sucpect" was intentional, but I'm stealing it anyways. : )
They just keep making shit up! Unbelievable. They want an "accurate" version off GDP yet take out energy and food in the less accurate "inflation" and don't get me started on unemployment.
These fucks are not even trying anymore. They just make shit up, and the more nutty and silly it is, the more they just say, "meh"!
"They just keep making shit up! Unbelievable"
really?
Imagine the sycophantic forces in play that enable such things...
Imagine how overwhelmingly stupid-and-chaotic it all has to be, underneath it all...
We are destroying ourselves in high definition, rounded corners and all.
I am writing that one down:
SUCH A GREAT QUOTE!
The matrix is falling in place rather quickly. Final lockdown will happen before anyone realizes it, and after that it won't matter.
This is how it works. Intellects best. And over time it'll be forgotten that all these secret ingredients have been added. When the scaffolding comes crashing down it will be a complete shock to the intellects.
I literally can't put my finger on what they are adding.
This encourages more people to get on Social Security Disability, Food stamps, free rent, free phone and spending money.
Why work and pay taxes?
Live the good life on printed money and GDP. A good portion doesn't produce anything except debt.
None of the kids who are really with it heat their apartments anymore.
Airplane Pilots can't just add or subtract 5000ft on their altimeter readings, people could get killed, Doctors can't just shave off 10mm/Hg off your blood pressure because the patient might die, yet the Decepticrats and Republicons can make up any measurement they want for the Economy? Time to crack open a bottle of Absinthe...
c'mon this is the USA, our intangibles have to be worth more than a lousy $500 billion !!!
Yeah, I mean hell, if it is intangible, at least make it worth a cool Trillion!
Yea... Id like to see the numbers on how they quantified the value of art.... Anyone got a link?
i-shit repothetcation is passe'
Since we're #1 in the world in illicit drug use, just add all the drugs. Growth would be off the charts.
When they confiscate guns and gold, you don't lose....you simply reclassify these assets as "intangibles" on your personal balance sheet.
No surprises here...what else do ffraudsters do but cook the books?
I had enough when they got to the part"we are rewriting economic history." why not just build a time machine, assholes!
Debt production now pard of GDP. Increase debt and increase GDP. More free government money please.
Based on Martenson's statistics, over 30% of GDP these days is based on hedonic adjustments. In other words, pre-hedonics (1980s), GDP represented what most folks think of as "real"l [and govt' thinks of as "taxable"] economic activity. Debt is much higher, and what used to be defined as economic activity is much lower, and that's before considering it being "deflated" by a bogus inflation number to get to an overstated "real" GDP. Wow. Toto...
I'm sure all those suffering in this economic shitstorm will appreciate the fact that the economy is growing at a clip nearly as fast as the number of families on foodstamps. Bravo, spinmeisters. <golf clap>
.
Intangibles: blow jobs for POTUS and favorite staff, coke and choom parties for POTUS and staff, holiday allowance for FLOTUS and the KIDSTUS...less see... what else? The Pelosi Family Inevstment Trust, The Harry Reid Boxing Fund, and payback for all the motherfuckers that voted these jokers into office, aka Stimulus Package.
My name is Marc to (Fraudulent) Market, and I approve this (desperate) governmental statistical action.
Ha, funny accounting!
But why $500 billion? What prevent them from inventing $ 15 trillion?
Lets make the national debt intangible.
Actually the national debt is an intangible given that it will never be paid off.
Chip, Chip, Chipping away at the confidence in the Fed and Government via producing statistics and data that is out of sync with experience.
Americans may be stupid but they KNOW nothing is getting better regardless of the BS put out indicating Good Times.
It will be funny to see the U.S. economy crashing with a phony positive GDP rate at the time.
intangibles ... ie. corporate earnings, employment, and truth.
What happens when Americans go German? [wwII]
'In Tangibles We Trust'
--Some rat bastard on the Intertubez
All new keyboards from here on in should have an "infinity " symble so we can communicate about the fed.I can`t seem to make an "8" rotate 90 degrees!
Alt code 236, but i believe NAN is a better description ;)
ZH wont let me post it however :(
http://www.fileformat.info/info/unicode/char/221e/index.htm
Infinity and beyond. ?
Perhaps we are all looking at this the wrong way. Maybe we should list what basic statistics/data are NOT pulled out of thin air instead of listing all the ones that are. It would at least be a much shorter list to deal with.
If HFTs trade on headlines, Then hello dow 20,000. The MSM are going to eat this up!!
are farts intangibles? I contribute $5,578.62 of farts a year. as cheritable donations.
The buck vereth.
GDP and Pro-forma GDP?
WTF.
Let me know when we get to chained GDP.
George Orwell has nothing on these guys. The amount of double-speak is astounding.
the various costs of the millions of unemployed (like job hunting, welfare check cashing, maintaining American Idol status) can be added to intangibles and "good will" as well.
Probably lots more to add too.
Is this like the "intangibles" when a homebuilding corporation buys a "lot" and gets "start" on a house, and then "Sells" it to a guy who is employed by them 8 months out of the year but has 4 months of "Seasonal" unemployment "working for the state" to level out the child support, a "work truck" purchase, and/or food stamps? House keeps "making progress" and gets bought by a "speculator" who turns it out to a REIT on "Completion" followed by a no-doc loan to a "homeowner" who gives it a go, but legitimately or illegitimately ends up "moving on" usually with one of the aformentioned characters re-taking posession? That is, if Fannie/Freddie does not poke their nose out from under the federal reserves "circus like" balance sheet that day?
The good news for GDP is that some of it might generate a tax buck. At the very least ... the income tax on the "honest" accountant who handled all this.
Classic. Thank you.
Are you surprised? You are dealing with ACTUAL criminals.
They aren't afraid to murder 1/2 million Iraqi children. You think they're afraid to kill 20 in Connecticut?
You think they won't totally rewrite GDP to suit themselves?
THE GOVERNMENT DID BOSTON.
THE GOVERNMENT DID SANDY HOOK.
THE GOVERNMENT DID THE UNDERWEAR BOMBER.
THE GOVERNMENT DID WTC(1).
THE GOVERNMENT DID 911.
Don't forget the Oklahoma City bombing. They were definitely involved in that one as well.
My intangible is bigger than yours.
You can't touch that - M.C. Hammer
Not if i change how i measue mine! HAA - got ya
They should just add 10 trillion, that would give them a lot more room to borrow!
Most people will believe this... until they are given their pink slip. A family friend thought the economy was in expansion.. Until he was given his walking papers from his company.
To really keep debt/GDP manageable, lets add in Derivatives(gross).
That ought to give the Prez something to crow about.
I'll catch all you inquisitive, 'Know alls" in london 0:08:00 gmt. (daylights savings time :-))
Unfortunately, you can't eat intangibles.
So if they're rewriting history back to 1929 - which is ominous in and of itself - doesn't that mean that all of the past pronouncements were actually lower than they stated?
Yes. And the crash of '29 never happened. At least to the important people.
now everyone should understand why Chris Dudd was put in to run the MPAA.
Anybody who is a "freind of mozillo" should be in pictures. have you seen that dudes rugged jaw, sharp suits, and perfect tan?
And CISPA removes any potential legal dams against this 'new' part of GDP being brought into the fold. Now, if only Hollywood Accounting actually produced tax revenues...
Tangent (although you should spot the link, if we're referencing complete data control) // Tonight, thinking on New Songdo; the IMF re-structuring that drove it forward, NY money involvement and also the UN's Green Climate Fund.
It's an interesting mix, and certainly one of the more positive facets of the competing four visions of the future. (However, MIT should be ashamed at parts of its Master's program; papers were weakly written.)
The question remains: will businesses move there, and how will South Koreans deal with the inorganic / ordered nature of it. Not sure the casino / entertainment sector isn't going to be blood in the water for a different set of immigrants, however...
how lovely, they built it right on the tidal flats.
silly humans, no understanding of the rhythms of their mother. either that or just obstinate rebelliousness.
time to grow up, no?
This is fall-off-the-chair funny.
Desperate times call for desperate measures, I guess.
If this is only just beginning, may CISPA not turn the lights out on sharing such entertainment.
More intangible lies?
Damn, just going to have to buy more tangible Gold and Silver.
They'll drive down the price of tangibles to nothing. What's real becomes unreal, what's unreal becomes real.
That's only about $6B a year, not adjusted for inflation, of course.
Price discovery of Hopium.
.
And there are still those who think the Fed will ever unwind...
And there are those who think that the USD is the only currency that the FED will ever issue.
I think we need a new ETF fund. Just a idea. Ultra Mega Long positon on the % of intangible asset / GDP (base on the 2013 calculation). What do you think ???
Intangible. Isn't that another word for derivative?
"Make believe" is what comes to mind...only we're not in Disneyland.
The USA has in recent times truly amassed some incredible levels of intangibles including bullshit, derivatives, goodwill generated in Iraq and Afghanistan, as well as amongst its own people judging from the purchases of arms and ammunition.
The USA needs to wake up to itself before it loses total control of the situation which in turn will make the world a very slippery and dangerous place to live and operate.
I want to believe in a better USA but the USA has to find a better way to operate as well.
If only my bank account or the Deliverables to my customers could get an intangible bump.
You is bittah people.
If you are short you should have known better. If you have no position, why are you whinging and railing about this ? Of course they are not going to let it go, it's the only thing The One can point to in his SOTUA.
It's toxic and a bad habit, waiting for the train to leave the tracks.
It is easy to manip the DOW when you can call Blankfein, Dimon et al. to a meeting at the WH and tell them where the ball is.
I am the most tedious of posters; a reformed shorter. I was like you. Now I don't short any more and feel fine when farcical fiats voluntus emanate from on high.