Earnings So Far: Just Three Charts

Tyler Durden's picture

With 33% of the S&P 500 market cap having reported, earnings season has had mixed results thus far. Earnings are pacing 4.1% ahead of expectations - 2.8% excluding financials; company guidance was generally negative leading into earnings season, and thus companies are beating lowered estimates and "clearing low hurdles." Early revenue results have been weaker than bottom-line numbers with revenues missing already lowered expectations by 0.3%. However, As Morgan Stanley's Adam Parker notes, three things stand out: negative guidance persists with negative-to-positive guidance surging to a multi-year high of 4.7; Margin expansion expectations remain at multi-year highs; and the consensus EPS for the S&P 500 is being marked down slowly by 0.6% and 1.1% for 2013 and 2014 respectively. With Apple set to report, and its huge relative weighting in many of the indices still, these 'expectations' could shift dramatically.

The Ratio of Negative-to-Positive Guidance relative to Consensus Expectations is surging...

Margin Expansion Expectations remain in full hockey-stick mode...

but Earnings Estimates are being revised down...


But apart from that - it's all good, right?

Charts: Morgan Stanley

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Dr. Engali's picture

Damn how do those brilliant financial guys keep knocking it out of the park in this environment? If I didn't know any better I would think they owned the gubbermint or something.

spastic_colon's picture

and CAT must be buying back all those shares they announced TODAY

mdtrader's picture

The Dow will be green whatever the earnings are. So it really doesn't matter. 

natronic's picture

Right if earnings are bad Dow goes up because QE continues.......if earnings are good Dow goes down because free money would end.

Manthong's picture

Thank God for financials (after all.. it is His work).

LawsofPhysics's picture

Yes indeed.  Now please remind me, what product of real fucking value did these paper-pushers actually create again?  I mean aside from fraudulent "financial products" of mass destruction of course.  Roll the motherfucking guillotines already.

shermacman's picture

Upon deep, deep analysis, I predict these dismal numbers will be positive for the Dow.
Moar dismal numbers, please!