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Gold Has Biggest Week In 18 Months; Bonds Ignore Stock Surge
Despite CAT explaining to the world that things are nothing like as good as they have said in the past and that their ability to forecast is gone given monetary policy hindrance (paraphrasing), the stock oscillated from pre-open gains to a big drop out of the gate, to a squeeze higher gapping as shorts covered to end the day up 2.75%. We explain this because it perfectly summarizes the market today. Overnight JPY weakness supported risk assets, Italy's Napolitano helped, and into the open we were comfortably green; but the moment the bell wrung the sellers appeared and pushed the S&P down (coincidentally) to last Monday's crash lows. Once Europe closed, the bulls got the green light and stocks surged on light volume running stops above overnight highs; stocks leaked back off their highs though ended comfortably green - a mere 20 S&P points off the intraday lows! While all this tom-foolery was occurring, Treasury yields plunged from their overnight highs and flatlined 1-2bps lower (ignoring equity's after noon exuberance). Commodities were similarly unimpressed as gold and silver held overnight strength but flatlined in the US afternoon as stocks popped. FX was in charge of the rally today as AUDJPY ruled pre-European close and EURUSD ruled the afternoon. VIX compression as protection was unwound helped support risk, but high-yield credit slammed lower into the close.
Bonds ignored stocks today...
What was driving the ship today... S&P followed JPY-carry into the European close, and EUR all afternoon...
VIX compressed notably as protection was clearly unwound - with the S&P 500 cash index ending at last Wednesday's gap down open...
The unwind of index protection has the smell once again of managers reducing size as market breadth was very weak (especially in the post EU Close) - as we noted last week, VIX was bid last week as the fastest most liquid overlay that can be slammed on a long book of stocks. Uncertainty remains high - as does realized vol recently - but today saw the selling pressure out of the gate matched by market breadth (real reduction) and then the afternoon saw the indices soar even as relative volume buying was very weak - this suggests that the VIX compression above was unwinding the macro hedge and unwinding underlying positions into that strength - as opposed a full risk-on lift...
Gold had its best day in 3 weeks ending back above $1425 and its best 5-day run in 18 months...
But it was FX that dominated cross asset class correlation today and drove stocks but the afternoon saw stocks off in their own world once again...
So it seems once again - today was a game of two halves with US equities bid after the European close and offered before... makes perfect sense if you forget that Europe re-opens in 8 hours...
Charts: Bloomberg and Capital Context
Bonus Chart: CAT... seemed to enjoy the European close too...
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gold closes under the 200ma on the weekly. not good.
Technical analysis of a manipulated market is a fool's errand.
The Jig is up. Paper and Phyzz are not the same animal.
From Andrew Maguire today:
" So you’ve reached a point where the lines cross, and the physical market diverges. I have checked the numbers now and we are very close to 1,000 tons of deliveries just this year into Shanghai.
That does not account for the 25 tons we are seeing every day through London. And that does not account for what is being directly purchased through producers. So there comes a point where you get such a discount that this demand increases exponentially. And we are not just seeing the central banks and the sovereigns coming in, we are also seeing some very smart money, I’m talking investment money, coming in (to the gold market as well). "
http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2013/4/22_Maguire_-_Gold_Deliveries_Into_China_Soar_To_1,000_Tons.html
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andrew_Maguire_%28whistleblower%29
See this interview re. backwardation in gold from February.
It is difficult to measure (articles often incorrectly measure backwardation) and only a few understand the meaning:
http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/podcast/4528/tfmr-podcast-40-sandeep-jaitl...
Paper and PHYZ have not yet separated with respect to Gold. Silver maybe, but not gold.
You can still buy gold for just $21 over spot: http://www.pmbull.com/gold-price/
At some point, gold at the retail level can begin to look like silver, with a shrinking supply of coins or bars to choose from.
On that note, even with silver, you can still buy 100 oz bars or even 10 oz bars with a pretty low premium: http://www.pmbull.com/silver-price/
ATG
You are noting retail amounts.
These are small in comparison to an off-take of more than 1 million gold oz. per day on the two physical exchanges noted above.
Yes, that is true, and sometimes I forget to qualify my statements.
I just keep hearing gold and silver lumped together with regards to what is happening in both markets, whether it be retail, or on the exchanges, as if they were experiencing the same thing. The odd thing is that retail silver is in short supply, but retail gold does not appear to be (yet?).
When talking about tonnage standing for delivery, evidence shows that gold is hard to come by. I'm not hearing about that with silver so much.
When talking about the funds, we see that GLD has beeing getting drained of gold big time (to meet delivery demands?), yet SLV has not.
COT reports show two very different things happening between Gold and Silver as well.
Yet - Silver and Gold spot / futures prices are acting the same, and everybody lumps them together with respect to retail pricing, but they do not appear to be the same.
I beg to differ... you are speaking of the technicals. So 'technically' you are correct.
However, when a paper monkeyhammering causes record physical sales, I'd say they are pretty fucking diverged...
I don't pay any attention to markets or graphs anymore, like they don't matter.
I must be a Dinosaur.
ATG, check out Pinto's KWN link. Institutional money is buying up the gold. Silver is too small for institutional money, but it will move where gold leads. Doesn't matter that gold is the one leaving the COMEX and silver is the one with retail divergence. They're both leaving the building.
I’ll believe it when I see it. Other items I’m seeing are $100 over spot 1oz gold.
Of course they're not the same. Those astute people with intellectual honesty and w/o a hidden agenda, will recognize the reality of the present bullion dynamics:
We are seeing the effects of PM finding its own price on the free market. Even if the paper price were to drop further (anywhere from $1400 down to $35 for our thought experiment), all we would see is the price adjustments on the supply side of the value chain. The miners would still charge what they need to stay in business, and the middle-men would still charge their premium, until whatever price-discovery level is achieved.
E.g. I have no problem getting silver bullion in 100 oz or 400 oz quantities, or 10 oz gold bars with nominal premium. I just ordered some today for shipment. So much for a silver shortage. All I'm seeing is a big buying binge by the Prepper crowd. Just like with G+A. Makes me wonder if the Fed is not just being really devious and forcing the Preppers to spend their money.
If the present situation reaches a price balance at, say, $1500-1600/oz, it tells us that this is the TRUE fair market value (FMV) for gold. No matter what anyone else says. It's time for truth-or-dare for both camps (paper vs rock). Get out the popcorn.
thats BS. crying about manipulation is a loser's way to explain their losses.
WTF are you talking about? Paper and phizz are decoupling you moron.
it’s coming.. just wait till a certain few more funds start to deal with reality rather than the scam.
wow... you're analysis is amazing. When will you be on CNBS to discuss how crappy gold is with Steve Liesman?
Tell that to GATA
101 years,
Then why would you say it's not good for it to miss its 200dma?
If you can tell which way the market is moving then you can make money from it. So it's good whether it's going up or down - THAT IS UNLESS YOU CAN'T PREDICT IT'S MOVEMENT AT ALL.
If it's manipulated then it shouldn't be difficult to determine it's direction. It is whatever the manipulators want it to be.
I know a guy that used to own a gold Rolex that fell to the bottom of a lake and he was complaining that even though he bought it 20 years ago and it was worth more “pre-owned’ than he paid for it, the fishies now lost several hundred dollars of value on it with the recent gold smash.
Oh, hold on.. no they didn’t.
.fishies are still happy with the oyster.
thats BS. crying about manipulation is a loser's way to explain their losses.
I think I shall call you: CORZINETROLL.
(thank you, thank you very much)
"thats BS. crying about manipulation is a loser's way to explain their losses."
Yeah! and them damn women that go to parties, get a little tipsy and then are gang-raped, deserve it, too.
Not necessarily – one could argue manipulation up is a great way to miss the boat, and that manipulation down is a great way to get the 2nd ferry which I just have.
+100 there tits.
It’s not a fool’s errand but it must be valid analysis. Macd & moving averages are too simple. The proper technical analysis needs to analyze timing, repeating patterns, intensity & probabilities OF the manipulation. It’s the manipulation you’re supposed to analyze, not the price or volume as if it were not manipulated.
For example, looking at the demand for physical & the correlating drop in price from the manipulators one could trend out monthly, seasonal & annual changes (likely increases) in demand and correlate a push-down in prices from various key levels (paper price) and further analyze the premiums in play to discover the physical price. This can facilitate paper trades if one dares to use them or bottom-seeking to buy the physical (which is right now, as if one needed to be hit in the face with a gold brick to get the hint).
another round of chart pr0n, love it.
And on a Monday, no less...
DaddyO
Another day of meaningless WTF action, backed up by absolutely nothing but making money for certain someones we can't ever know the identity of.
Another day of meaningless WTF action, backed up by absolutely nothing but making money for certain someones we can't ever know the identity of.
NFLX.. bane of my existence. Know the why and the who but Gawddamnit people - that report sucked!
Yea, they read all the books, but still can't the answers.
i guess the gameplan for the market is this.
lets have expectations as low as possible, so that even when a company reports shitty numbers in general, the stock can go up 30 percent ( nflx)
this thing has gotten so laughable, that is all i could do. CAT reports horrific numbers, says they will not meet there numbers for next quarter, yet the stock had its best day in a while.
how do you play this market, o ya u cant, i just sit back and watch until it crashes
Not that it helps. but you nailed it. It's never about the news. It's about the news relative to what it was expected to be. If people expected CAT to be worse then it was already priced in and less worse than expected is still reason for the stock to go up.
Chinese Bank Holiday April 29, April 30 and May 1 (that's MTW). What are the odds of another "Biggest Week/Weak in Gold" next week?
That also coincides with the 'everyone buy silver day' on May 1.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gi1i_REX-2U
Whar silver? Whar?
My friend bought silver from Tulving last monday. He usually gets it within a couple of days. He hasnt even been notified that it has been shipped yet.
That's because there are shortages.
don't wait, won't be nothin left...
Then it'll be a double win for everyone as they'll have moar and that organization can claim that they succeeded.
Oh man, were havin a hugh BP that same weekend, it's a blow out affair and has been planned since long ago. They won't mess it up will they??
The QI Elves @qikipedia
The metal in a £1 coin is worth 4p.
Cue PUDpounder in 3...2...1....to tell us all how evil it is to want gold.
U.S. National Debt Clock : Real Time
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/GFDEBTN/
Federal Debt: Total Public Debt (GFDEBTN)
2012:Q4: 16,432,729 Millions of Dollars
http://www.scribd.com/doc/137226599/total-u-s-public-debt-u-s-department-of-the-treasury
Bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE), commonly known as mad cow disease, is a fatal neurodegenerative disease (encephalopathy) in cattle that causes a spongy degeneration in the brain and spinal cord. BSE has a long incubation period, about 30 months to 8 years, usually affecting adult cattle at a peak age onset of four to five years, all breeds being equally susceptible.[1] In the United Kingdom, the country worst affected, more than 180,000 cattle have been infected and 4.4 million slaughtered during the eradication program.[2]
The disease may be most easily transmitted to human beings by eating food contaminated with the brain, spinal cord or digestive tract of infected carcasses.[3] However, it should also be noted that the infectious agent, although most highly concentrated in nervous tissue, can be found in virtually all tissues throughout the body, including blood.[4] In humans, it is known as new variant Creutzfeldt–Jakob disease (vCJD or nvCJD), and by October 2009, it had killed 166 people in the United Kingdom, and 44 elsewhere.[5] Between 460,000 and 482,000 BSE-infected animals had entered the human food chain before controls on high-risk offal were introduced in 1989.[6]
Effective Federal Funds Rate from 1954 to 2013:
http://www.scribd.com/doc/136924220/Effective-Federal-Funds-Rate-from-1954-to-2013-Federal-Reserve
The naturally occurring variant of the artichoke, the cardoon (Cynara cardunculus), which is native to the Mediterranean area,[1] has records of use as a food among the ancient Greeks and Romans. In North Africa, where they are still found in the wild state, the seeds of artichokes, probably cultivated, were found during the excavation of Roman-period Mons Claudianus in Egypt.[2] Varieties of artichokes were cultivated in Sicily since the classical period of the ancient Greeks, the Greeks calling them kaktos. In that period the Greeks ate the leaves and flower heads, which cultivation had already improved from the wild form. The Romans called the vegetable carduus (whence the name cardoon). Globe artichokes are known to have been cultivated at Naples around the middle of the 9th century.[citation needed] Further improvement in the cultivated form appears to have taken place in the medieval period in Muslim Spain and the Maghreb, although the evidence is inferential only.[3] Names for the artichoke in many European languages today come from medieval Arabic ??????? al-khursh?f via late medieval Spain.[4]
According to Reuters:
Economic growth since 2008:
link.reuters.com/tyd36t
G4 Central Bank Activity:
link.reuters.com/gaj75t
Japan US Eurozone GDP:
link.reuters.com/ruh54t
You lost us all at "according to Reuters"...
Dow Jones Industrial Average versus NYSE Margin Debt from 1996 to 2013:
http://www.scribd.com/doc/137204683/Dow-Jones-Industrial-Average-Versus-NYSE-Margin-Debt-from-1996-to-2013
The most accurate measurement of the human penis comes from several measurements at different times since there is natural minor variability in size due to arousal level, time of day, room temperature, frequency of sexual activity, and reliability of measurement. When compared to other primates, including large primates such as the gorilla, the human penis is largest, both in absolute terms and in relative size to the rest of the body. Measurements vary, with studies that rely on self-measurement reporting a significantly higher average than those with staff measuring. However, the mean of an erect human penis is approximately 12.9–15.0 cm (5.1–5.9 in) in length. Flaccid penis length is a poor estimate of erect length. Most of human penis growth happens between infancy and the age of five, and between about one year after the onset of puberty and, at latest, approximately 17 years of age.[1] A statistically significant correlation between penis size and the size of other body parts has not been found in research. Some environmental factors in addition to genetic, such as the presence of endocrine disruptors, can affect penis growth. An adult penis with an erect length of less than 7 cm or just under 3 inches, but otherwise formed normally, is referred to in medicine as a micropenis.
Is that where Bill Gates got the nickname "Microsoft"?
According to TGSF Advisors:
http://www.scribd.com/doc/135607854/Major-Themes-TGSF-Advisors
The last long cycle (from 1980 to 2000-05) was shaped by exceptional growth in supply on a global level. Strong growth in the working-age population across Asia and the opening-up of world trade led to considerable expansion in global production capacities. These factors created a highly competitive and disinflationary environment of plentiful supply, which was characterized by low interest rates, a credit boom and, in the financial markets, exuberant appetite for risky assets.
As the demographic cycle progresses, we are seeing the emergence of an aging population, which is less favorable to productive investment. Additionally, the developed world is facing a serious debt overhang and a long period of slow nominal growth. Meanwhile the rise in living standards among the emerging population heralds an unprecedented level of growth in demand. Taken together, the world supply/demand balance is dramatically changing against a backdrop of resource shortages which are likely to favor shorter cycles, increased government intervention in economic affairs and inflation.
What's your point?
Trolls are like marbles - they do not have points.
My point is that without record margin debt expansion and 0% interest rates, the US stock market would not be trading at all time highs right now.
According to Pragmatic Capitalism:
http://pragcap.com/nyse-margin-debt-stalks-all-time-highs
It’s interesting to note the tight correlation between margin debt and stock prices in our world that is so overly obsessed with nominal wealth. And we even encourage the use of leverage in the chase for this nominal wealth. Is that stabilizing? Or is it more destabilizing than anything else? I would argue that this obsession puts the cart before the horse, but that’s just me….
No Netflix short squeeze bonus chart?
Durdens Delivars
http://schaefferstradingfloor.com/margin-debt-on-nyse-approaches-record-levels/id=3937
Based upon statistics from the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), Margin Debt is approaching all-time high levels. In this post, I present the data graphically and help explain what you should know about Margin Debt.
Per the NYSE, member organizations are required to report monthly their aggregate debits (amount borrowed by customers to purchase securities) in margin accounts, as well as aggregate free credits (cash balances) in cash and margin accounts.
The last time we witnessed Margin Debt at these levels was the summer of 2007. Margin Debt peaked out at or near the zenith in equity prices as measured by the Standard & Poors 500 Index.
NYSE Margin Debt Since 2000 - Schaeffer's Trading Floor:
http://www.scribd.com/doc/137210828/NYSE-Margin-Debt-Since-2000-Schaeffer-s-Trading-Floor
Yes... We know.
Amazing, it's like they're magnetic opposites! Also known as market levitation.
Tomorrow is Yesterday !!!
Then yesterday is Tuesday.
See you next Tuesday....
"To say 'No' to yesterday, or 'yes' without knowing at all..." -- Firesign Theater
Some amazing news about the gold slump
Ron Paul Is Relaxed About Gold's Slump
A slump in the gold price also led to a jump in gold jewelry sales in India.
demand for physical gold - such as Krugerrand gold coins - shot through the roof during last week's drop
http://homment.com/XfmSep3Utr
password protectd site
(read the following in your mental Allen Ludden voice)
The password is Gold, Gold Gold
(read gold, gold, gold, in an Allen Ludden, Tora, Tora, Tora sort of way...)
So buy the market just after Europe closes. Sell just prior to end of day.
Silver is $40, now
http://www.ebay.com/itm/United-States-Silver-Dollar-1986-Bullion-/251264275139?pt=Bullion_US&hash=item3a808492c3&autorefresh=true
and the paper burns
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qMkkfuSizc4
In spite of wishes by some/many on ZH, that the paper-gold crowd will liquidate their paper holdings for bullion, and thus cause bullion stampede, we are seeing more of a supply-chain crisis than an exit stampede. Fact is, if you know where to look and willing to pay a premium, you CAN get PM. Although the popular retail items (individual Silver Eagles and their monster Boxes) are almost impossible to find, the truth is, you can still find silver in 100 oz and up sizes.
My PM bullion analyst therefore sees this more of a temporary supply chain issue than a bullion run, where a bunch of people will pay a supply/demand premium for retail product, but not for wholesale product (>10 oz gold or > 100 oz silver). A true run occurs when people with cash start buying up and competing for ANY size of PM in any quantity. We are just not there yet.
Yeah, but it's always nice to get moar at less than yer breakeven price.
Another CME update, this one's a doozy!
4/18: 8,917,900 troy oz
4/19: 8,781,909 troy oz
CME had 1.5% of its inventory disappear in a day. Down 5.3% in two weeks. That's a painful run rate.
I'm staring to wonder if it might be a BB that's taking delivery.
At the risk of being skewered, need help understanding the claims that gold and silver Eagles can be purchased from any number of named dealers/ sellers for prices waaaay below U.S. Mint website prices. Does this mean that they buy at discount or reselling, or both?
Long VIX now. Roll on the plunge.
Pinto Currency thank-you for posting that info.