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A Major Realignment Of The Markets - Three Hopes And Three Fears

Tyler Durden's picture




 

The commodity market is saying global growth is slowing. But, there is hope, as BofAML's David Woo notes, the US equity market is saying US consumers are still going strong; and the FX and European sovereign markets seem to believe Mrs. Watanabe is about to embark on a global shopping spree. However, like us, Woo thinks it is unlikely that these markets will all turn out to be right. At the same time, we agree completely with Woo's assessment that markets may be under pricing three macro risks: the ability of Beijing to ease policy aggressively in the face of strong home price appreciation may be limited; the positive wealth effect of US housing recovery may not be enough to offset the contractionary impact of fiscal tightening; Japanese money may stay at home longer than expected. As he concludes, "something will have to give and a major re-alignment of the markets, the odds of which are rising, will probably not be either smooth or benign."

 

Via BofAML's David Woo,

The circle that cannot be squared

It is probably an understatement to say that lately it has become more difficult than usual to read markets. Many relationships/correlations across markets that are often taken for granted are weakening or even breaking down. Nevertheless, emerging from price action are three distinct macro themes that appear to be shaping market consensus and guiding investment flows:

1. The global economy is slowing down. Industrial commodities have been sliding for the past two months, with the LMEX metal index down 14% since mid-Feb and now at levels of last summer during heightened concerns about both Europe and China (Chart 1). Despite recent strong US stock market gains, cyclical sectors have been underperforming the more defensive sectors since March.

 

 

2. US consumers are still going strong. The US stock market has been the best performing major stock market this year and consumers have led the rally. Even with the correction this week, S&P 500 consumer staples and consumer discretionary are still up 16% and 12% year to date, respectively. Indeed, Q1 was only the second time since 2000 that in a rising stock market both consumer discretionary and consumer staples outperformed the S&P 500.

 

3. Mrs. Watanabe is about to go on a global shopping spree. Since the BOJ meeting on April 4, emerging market currencies have staged an impressive rally and peripheral debt spreads have tightened (Chart 3). Market expectations that aggressive BOJ monetary easing will push yield hungry Japanese investors into the arms of risky assets have driven up, almost indiscriminately, the prices of global high yielding assets.

 

To the extent that these themes reflect market expectations of reality, there seems to be three different versions of reality right now. The commodity markets are trading on the first version, the US equity markets are trading on the second, and the FX, EM and peripheral debt markets are trading on the third. Who is right and who is wrong?

In our view, it is unlikely that all three markets will prove to be right. In this respect, we are concerned that the current market equilibrium may not be a stable one. Something may have to give and a major re-alignment of the markets, the odds of which are rising, may neither be smooth nor benign. We believe markets are under pricing this risk.

Here's Why...

1. Global slowdown difficult to refute

The body of evidence suggesting that the global economy is slowing is growing almost every day. The latest manufacturing PMI warns that the recession in Europe may be deepening (Chart 4) just as the Eurozone unemployment rate hit a new decade high of 12%.

The weaker-than-expected Q1 Chinese GDP data only reinforces what soft electricity production data and railway freight volume have been telling us for a while (chart 6).

This time around, things may turn out differently as the strong momentum behind recent home price appreciation may hold back policymakers from easing quickly and with decisiveness.

2. Moment of truth for US consumers

The prevailing optimism towards US consumers reflects the view that rising home prices will offset the impact of fiscal tightening. We have argued that whether this will turn out to be the case will depend critically on what happens to consumer confidence. Michigan consumer expectations fell in April to the lowest level since the fiscal cliff crisis. Furthermore, with the household saving rate having fallen to just 2.6% in February - the lowest level since December 2007 - household consumption could be more vulnerable than usual to any sudden confidence shock.

 

In our view, the market continues to underestimate the headwinds associated with the implementation of the sequester. Our US economist team estimate that this will amount to about $50bn worth of fiscal tightening over the next six months. If we were to assume that this will primarily take the form of reduced wages/salaries of government employees and contractors and that most of the hit will occur in Q2, this could result in a very dramatic shock to household income (Chart 10).

3. Mrs. Watanabe to save the world?

Japanese policymakers have taken the world by storm in the past three months. Their determination to reflate the Japanese economy at all cost is both unprecedented and impressive. While only time will tell whether or not their shock-and-awe policy will be successful, many investors now believe the BOJ’s aggressive easing will have global repercussions by sending Japanese investors in search of higher yielding assets away from home. This may be a reasonable assumption but the question is how quickly this will happen. In our view, there are at least three reasons why this could be slower than generally expected:

1. Japanese money to flood global markets like it did in 2005-7, Japan’s deteriorating trade balance will have to first turn around (Chart 13).

 

 

In our view, this is unlikely to happen quickly.The two main factors behind the dramatic deterioration of Japan’s trade balance since 2010 were a surge in Japan’s energy imports and the slowdown in the EU and China. The recent depreciation of the JPY will have very limited impact on either. Indeed, Japan’s trade deficit could worsen in the short-run as the result of the price inelastic nature of energy demand.

2. The fact that the BOJ’s aggressive easing has so far failed to reduce the volatility of Japanese markets will also limit the appetite of Japanese investors for foreign assets. Indeed, adjusted for FX vol, US Treasuries and core European bonds have never been so unattractive for Japanese investors over the past ten years (Chart 15).

3. foreign assets as a share of total assets of Japanese pension funds and life insurance companies rose in 2010 and 2011 even while the JPY was strengthening (Chart 18).

 

Q4 data suggest that foreign assets as a share of total assets was just shy of the 2007 all time high. Given the JPY has since depreciated 20%, it is reasonable to assume that Japanese pension funds and life insurance have never been so overweight foreign assets as they are now.

In summary,
Risky assets have had a mini-correction this week. What is interesting, however, is that the risk premium of cyclical assets remains quite low, suggesting that investors see the correction as a one-off repricing.

We see this as offering a cheap insurance against the possibility of a synchronized global slowdown.

 

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Mon, 04/22/2013 - 17:33 | 3485554 The Invisible Foot
The Invisible Foot's picture

cHaRTZZZ!!

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 17:56 | 3485611 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

What's a market?

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 18:15 | 3485657 uno
uno's picture

no shorts left, have to get another bunch of suckers to ramp it.

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 17:33 | 3485563 reader2010
reader2010's picture

Dow 36,000 was predicted 14 years ago, wan't it?

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 20:35 | 3486114 cynicalskeptic
cynicalskeptic's picture

If real inflation were reflected in markets - and markets were actually doing well, you'd be there.  

Manipulated inflation stats and underperforming companies have kept it lower.  ZImbabwe had the best performing stock market in the world at one point.  SOARING values.   Not that it meant much when $Zim100TRILLION wouldn't buy you a loaf of bread.

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 17:35 | 3485568 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

Is he a relative of Cindy Woo?  From Whoville?

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 17:40 | 3485575 adr
adr's picture

I stopped trying to figure out how charts have anything to do with the little green numbers flashing on my screen.

Your only choices:

1) Suspend all reason and accountability and just be happy the numbers flash green.

2) Try to actually trade on real information and get your ass handed to you.

3) Get out of the market and try to concentrate on how to survive being impaled on the giant stake of state government.

 

Two quarters of relatively shitty earnings and Netflix is up 110%. I'm sure humans made the trade. Sure of it I tell ya!

 

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 18:30 | 3485688 rhinoblitzing
rhinoblitzing's picture

How do you define "real information" - earnings, debt levels, press releases, rumors of new products, a new ceo... All a bunch of chatter.

As a beleiver in using both technicals and fundamentals - as using only one IMO - is just guessing where price may go.

The charts show the human psychology of buyers and sellers. Plot price data onto charts that pre date computers and you will still see Triangles, and Head and Shoulder patterns, double tops, etc... that  - and here is the bottom line - puts the "odds in your favor" and you can project where price may go. Because fundamentals fill volumes, but the charts don't lie. It's where the money makes an imprint as it exchanges hands - everything else is chatter.

Don;t use charts: Then, "Your Just Guessing" as you watch your flasing green lights.

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 20:30 | 3486098 Abi Normal
Abi Normal's picture

Big problem...Bernanke is not human...all charts are mirages because of his maniplation.  Hell just throw a dart at a dart board and you may be a WINNER!!!  Who can make heads or tails of what is going to happen, other than the Fed manipulation, question is when will that end...if you know the answer to that, then you will have some direction.  Other than that this casino is just that...gambling.  My money is on RED baby...swing and a miss.

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 17:42 | 3485579 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Last I knew, going down from left to right was not a good thing, unless it was debt.

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 17:43 | 3485580 tawse57
tawse57's picture

Wait till the new BOE Governor starts printing like Japan when he takes over in July.

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 17:58 | 3485605 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

<--- If stats & economy are so manipulated anyway, what's the point of chart analysis (wank much)?

<--- If it does not violate the laws of physics & math, any goal or prophecy can become self-fulfilling.  So keep manipulating till goals are achieved!

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 18:12 | 3485648 spine001
spine001's picture

Chart analysus is only a proxy to understand how the market is being manipulated real time... The reason it is more predictive than fundamental analysis should be easy to guess to zh readers... :):):)

Until next tine,

Engineer

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 20:33 | 3486108 Abi Normal
Abi Normal's picture

Does a fork come with that?

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 18:04 | 3485620 devo
devo's picture

It's going to be funny, and by funny I mean scary, when the equity market figures it out.

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 18:16 | 3485662 Pairadimes
Pairadimes's picture

At this point, whatever the US equities 'markets' are saying is a lie.

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 18:20 | 3485671 Edward Fiatski
Edward Fiatski's picture

Such a precarious balance of life & death in the Japanese economy - http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2...

They are fucked, if no one keeps buying their Sonys & Toyotas.

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 19:08 | 3485805 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

Can you hear me Dr. Woo?
Are you really just a shadow
of the man that I once knew?
Are you crazy are you high?
Or just an ordinary guy?
Can you hear me Doctor...
Are you with me Doctor...

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 20:01 | 3486005 Cynthia
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