US Macro Data Plunges To 5-Month Low

Tyler Durden's picture


In the last few weeks, US macro data has missed expectant extrapolated hope expectations time after time. The deterioration has been very rapid, starting around the third week of March, and has plunged to the worst levels since the ubiquitous equity rally began in November 2012. Combined with dismal micro- performance (and outlooks) from the likes of IBM, GE, and CAT, is there any doubt that this 'market' is disconnected not just from current reality but that 'priced-in' hopes for a hockey-stick-recovery seem improbable at best and exuberant at worst?


The US equity 'market' vs Bloomberg's US Macro Economic Surprise Index...


and Bloomberg Brief's Rich Yamarone has some recent examples that may make this week's GDP hopes look a little rich...

Chart: Bloomberg

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Mon, 04/22/2013 - 09:33 | 3483386 _ConanTheLibert...
_ConanTheLibertarian_'s picture

This is going to be fugly.

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 09:35 | 3483398 autofixer
autofixer's picture

I keep hearing that.

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 09:38 | 3483408 flacon
flacon's picture

Everything up today. 

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 09:45 | 3483439 The Watchman
The Watchman's picture


Mon, 04/22/2013 - 10:00 | 3483513 Richard Chesler
Richard Chesler's picture

riding the short bus! choo choo

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 10:03 | 3483519 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

Bears who are into charts want the S&P up today about 0.5-1%. This will top the ridiculous ramp job with a nice head and shoulders just as "sell in May" is knocking at the door. Copper's declining channel will hit Fibonnaci support in a day or two. What looks like a set up for the big dump continues on plan. It could be epic and is likely soon.

One man's opinion

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 10:08 | 3483542 toys for tits
toys for tits's picture

Thanks for the technical summary.

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 10:32 | 3483644 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

Amateur technical summary. I don't recommend placing much fiat on the steep end of my learning curve.

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 12:18 | 3484075 Panafrican Funk...
Panafrican Funktron Robot's picture

The currency markets seem to have gone from largely reflecting other market information, to causing other market information.  Through this lens, I would suggest that the US/Japan coordinated printing scheme is going to continue to result in equity market ramps in the absence of something extremely bad happening (note that this apparently doesn't even include domestic terrorism, the threat of nuclear war, or naked theft of customer deposits at banks).  

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 09:50 | 3483469 TeamDepends
TeamDepends's picture

The Keynesians are on fire!

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 10:16 | 3483570 marathonman
marathonman's picture

We can only hope.....

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 09:40 | 3483420 Cursive
Cursive's picture


I only take exception to the "going to be" modifier.  Look around you.  This is fugly.  Underwriters now allow 84 month car loans.  What's next?  30-year auto notes?  Walk through a retail store.  Notice how people are dressed.  Notice their demeanor.  The zombie apocolypse is at least 3 years into the making.

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 09:56 | 3483491 pods
pods's picture

Number one indicator: pods is doing cardio.


Mon, 04/22/2013 - 11:56 | 3483973 Jack Napier
Jack Napier's picture

Now: Survival of the fattest
Later: Survival of the fittest

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 12:23 | 3484099 Panafrican Funk...
Panafrican Funktron Robot's picture

Same here, started seriously exercising back in May 2010.  

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 10:13 | 3483559 toys for tits
toys for tits's picture


In the 80's Japan developed 100 year mortgages.  Your point is taken that TS is about to hit TF.

Some very weird things are going to be happening over the next few months;

Numerous earthquakes,

The comet Ison,

The downfall of a major religion.


Mon, 04/22/2013 - 19:28 | 3485862 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Which major religion?

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 09:36 | 3483401 CvlDobd
CvlDobd's picture

Cue Brian Wesbury with his "Don't let this atrocity scare you." or "Why today's Philly Fed miss is meaningless." Perhaps he is right. QE fixes everything!

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 09:40 | 3483416 Jacque Itch
Jacque Itch's picture

Zandi interview on Yahoo a week or 2 ago said GDP will be 4% in Q1

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 09:48 | 3483449 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Yeah because they are getting ready to cook the already overcooked books with "intangibles".

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 09:58 | 3483503 pods
pods's picture

Intangible=Fed gave Treasury 500 X-large.


Mon, 04/22/2013 - 11:40 | 3483915 syntaxterror
syntaxterror's picture

GDP would be 10% if the central planners would just borrow and spend even MOAR!!!

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 09:47 | 3483456 kliguy38
kliguy38's picture

What a complete douchebag......he's such an obvious lying POS

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 10:38 | 3483664 CvlDobd
CvlDobd's picture

Like clockwork!


Wesbury tweets. "Guess what? Growth is back!"

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 10:53 | 3483727 Translational Lift
Translational Lift's picture

Aw c'mon.......he's just doing what he gets paid for.............

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 10:49 | 3483714 Translational Lift
Translational Lift's picture

Don't sweat the details......................Just BTFD...........

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 09:40 | 3483415 MillionDollarBonus_
MillionDollarBonus_'s picture

Correlation does not imply causation. The S&P chart has demostrated resilience in the face of all adverse economic data. The message is clear: we are in a recovery, and the market is pricing in significant economic growth over the next 5-10 years.

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 09:47 | 3483453 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

Must be 'pricing in' all those 'shovel ready jobs' for those people living in tunnels...

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 09:49 | 3483462 kliguy38
kliguy38's picture

bullish for debt slaves

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 09:49 | 3483459 espirit
espirit's picture

Sorry, but the redpill users don't believe that bullshit.

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 19:28 | 3485874 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Not sure that even blue pill swallowers believe in it!

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 10:24 | 3483607 Bunga Bunga
Bunga Bunga's picture

World War III? Do you get a boner already?

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 10:50 | 3483721 Liquid Courage
Liquid Courage's picture

"Correlation does not imply causation"


Yeah, yeah, post hoc ergo propter hoc ... my use of a Latin phrase trumps your feeble alliteration in the realm of the pointy-headed intellectual, so listen up:

Remember the scene in Alien (the first) when they've carefully removed that acid-crab thing from John Hurt's face and he seems to have made a full "recovery" and "demonstrates resilience in face of all adversity"? Then they sit down to eat a hearty meal in celebration thereof and then ...

And then the shit starts for real.

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 11:00 | 3483739 Translational Lift
Translational Lift's picture

"The message is clear: we are in a recovery"  ***NOT***

We are awash in Bennie Bucks.............

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 09:39 | 3483417 azzhatter
azzhatter's picture

Good thing there is no debt anywhere

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 09:48 | 3483451 CheapBastard
CheapBastard's picture

I don't beleive the numbers. More empty mall stores and empty houses in the Hood sitting there for weeks tells me GDP is worse and getting worser.

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 10:40 | 3483675 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

The recovery such as it is is very patchy. In my the neck of the woods the Home Depot that was a tomb in spring of 2009 is so crowded I won't go there on a weekend. The housing market is on fire with bidding wars on every new house complete with smug RE agents. A hundred miles away, out of commuter range of the Silicon Valley, it's dead, dead, dead. Unless you're selling farmland, you can get good prices for that.

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 11:41 | 3483927 syntaxterror
syntaxterror's picture

Go look at the startup companies on (a start up job board). Talk about a bunch of stupid meanlessless bullshit social bla bla bla garbage. But but but they're making money now. God what a joke. Yeah, keep on over bidding you fucking fucks.

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 09:48 | 3483463 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

America can print it's way out of it... don't worry...


Mon, 04/22/2013 - 09:50 | 3483465 Eireann go Brach
Eireann go Brach's picture

The US needs a Black Friday every week!

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 09:52 | 3483482 Banksters
Banksters's picture

4th amendment rights are plunging right along with them.

Police perform house to house raids in Watertown MA ripping innocent families from their homes

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 10:24 | 3483611 fomcy
fomcy's picture

Man, those Crimexicans hate GOLD

Knock down $19/oz so far and falling during Crimex session.

Bernank Bloodsucker.

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 11:37 | 3483909 rotagen
rotagen's picture

That Leading Economic indicators chart is worth a thousand chuckles.

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 09:34 | 3483392 I need more cowbell
I need more cowbell's picture

Nice charts, but the only macro you need is the POMO schedule.

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 09:35 | 3483395 El Oregonian
El Oregonian's picture

Irrational exuberance?

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 09:48 | 3483464 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

Exuberant Irrationality...

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 09:35 | 3483396 Stormtower
Stormtower's picture

Bad news is good news........

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 09:37 | 3483405 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture




Mon, 04/22/2013 - 09:38 | 3483406 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

It is funny to watch the Fed try and hold the banking system together by destroying the economy.  I am curious.  When was the last time impoverishing the citizens of a nation helped the economy turn around?  It sure didn't work during the depression. 

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