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US Macro Data Plunges To 5-Month Low

Tyler Durden's picture


In the last few weeks, US macro data has missed expectant extrapolated hope expectations time after time. The deterioration has been very rapid, starting around the third week of March, and has plunged to the worst levels since the ubiquitous equity rally began in November 2012. Combined with dismal micro- performance (and outlooks) from the likes of IBM, GE, and CAT, is there any doubt that this 'market' is disconnected not just from current reality but that 'priced-in' hopes for a hockey-stick-recovery seem improbable at best and exuberant at worst?


The US equity 'market' vs Bloomberg's US Macro Economic Surprise Index...


and Bloomberg Brief's Rich Yamarone has some recent examples that may make this week's GDP hopes look a little rich...

Chart: Bloomberg


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Mon, 04/22/2013 - 09:33 | 3483386 _ConanTheLibert...
_ConanTheLibertarian_'s picture

This is going to be fugly.

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 09:35 | 3483398 autofixer
autofixer's picture

I keep hearing that.

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 09:38 | 3483408 flacon
flacon's picture

Everything up today. 

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 09:45 | 3483439 The Watchman
The Watchman's picture


Mon, 04/22/2013 - 10:00 | 3483513 Richard Chesler
Richard Chesler's picture

riding the short bus! choo choo

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 10:03 | 3483519 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

Bears who are into charts want the S&P up today about 0.5-1%. This will top the ridiculous ramp job with a nice head and shoulders just as "sell in May" is knocking at the door. Copper's declining channel will hit Fibonnaci support in a day or two. What looks like a set up for the big dump continues on plan. It could be epic and is likely soon.

One man's opinion

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 10:08 | 3483542 toys for tits
toys for tits's picture

Thanks for the technical summary.

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 10:32 | 3483644 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

Amateur technical summary. I don't recommend placing much fiat on the steep end of my learning curve.

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 12:18 | 3484075 Panafrican Funk...
Panafrican Funktron Robot's picture

The currency markets seem to have gone from largely reflecting other market information, to causing other market information.  Through this lens, I would suggest that the US/Japan coordinated printing scheme is going to continue to result in equity market ramps in the absence of something extremely bad happening (note that this apparently doesn't even include domestic terrorism, the threat of nuclear war, or naked theft of customer deposits at banks).  

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 09:50 | 3483469 TeamDepends
TeamDepends's picture

The Keynesians are on fire!

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 10:16 | 3483570 marathonman
marathonman's picture

We can only hope.....

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 09:40 | 3483420 Cursive
Cursive's picture


I only take exception to the "going to be" modifier.  Look around you.  This is fugly.  Underwriters now allow 84 month car loans.  What's next?  30-year auto notes?  Walk through a retail store.  Notice how people are dressed.  Notice their demeanor.  The zombie apocolypse is at least 3 years into the making.

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 09:56 | 3483491 pods
pods's picture

Number one indicator: pods is doing cardio.


Mon, 04/22/2013 - 11:56 | 3483973 Jack Napier
Jack Napier's picture

Now: Survival of the fattest
Later: Survival of the fittest

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 12:23 | 3484099 Panafrican Funk...
Panafrican Funktron Robot's picture

Same here, started seriously exercising back in May 2010.  

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 10:13 | 3483559 toys for tits
toys for tits's picture


In the 80's Japan developed 100 year mortgages.  Your point is taken that TS is about to hit TF.

Some very weird things are going to be happening over the next few months;

Numerous earthquakes,

The comet Ison,

The downfall of a major religion.


Mon, 04/22/2013 - 19:28 | 3485862 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Which major religion?

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 09:36 | 3483401 CvlDobd
CvlDobd's picture

Cue Brian Wesbury with his "Don't let this atrocity scare you." or "Why today's Philly Fed miss is meaningless." Perhaps he is right. QE fixes everything!

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 09:40 | 3483416 Jacque Itch
Jacque Itch's picture

Zandi interview on Yahoo a week or 2 ago said GDP will be 4% in Q1

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 09:48 | 3483449 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Yeah because they are getting ready to cook the already overcooked books with "intangibles".

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 09:58 | 3483503 pods
pods's picture

Intangible=Fed gave Treasury 500 X-large.


Mon, 04/22/2013 - 11:40 | 3483915 syntaxterror
syntaxterror's picture

GDP would be 10% if the central planners would just borrow and spend even MOAR!!!

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 09:47 | 3483456 kliguy38
kliguy38's picture

What a complete douchebag......he's such an obvious lying POS

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 10:38 | 3483664 CvlDobd
CvlDobd's picture

Like clockwork!


Wesbury tweets. "Guess what? Growth is back!"

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 10:53 | 3483727 Translational Lift
Translational Lift's picture

Aw c'mon.......he's just doing what he gets paid for.............

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 10:49 | 3483714 Translational Lift
Translational Lift's picture

Don't sweat the details......................Just BTFD...........

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 09:40 | 3483415 MillionDollarBonus_
MillionDollarBonus_'s picture

Correlation does not imply causation. The S&P chart has demostrated resilience in the face of all adverse economic data. The message is clear: we are in a recovery, and the market is pricing in significant economic growth over the next 5-10 years.

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 09:47 | 3483453 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

Must be 'pricing in' all those 'shovel ready jobs' for those people living in tunnels...

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 09:49 | 3483462 kliguy38
kliguy38's picture

bullish for debt slaves

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 09:49 | 3483459 espirit
espirit's picture

Sorry, but the redpill users don't believe that bullshit.

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 19:28 | 3485874 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Not sure that even blue pill swallowers believe in it!

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 10:24 | 3483607 Bunga Bunga
Bunga Bunga's picture

World War III? Do you get a boner already?

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 10:50 | 3483721 Liquid Courage
Liquid Courage's picture

"Correlation does not imply causation"


Yeah, yeah, post hoc ergo propter hoc ... my use of a Latin phrase trumps your feeble alliteration in the realm of the pointy-headed intellectual, so listen up:

Remember the scene in Alien (the first) when they've carefully removed that acid-crab thing from John Hurt's face and he seems to have made a full "recovery" and "demonstrates resilience in face of all adversity"? Then they sit down to eat a hearty meal in celebration thereof and then ...

And then the shit starts for real.

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 11:00 | 3483739 Translational Lift
Translational Lift's picture

"The message is clear: we are in a recovery"  ***NOT***

We are awash in Bennie Bucks.............

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 09:39 | 3483417 azzhatter
azzhatter's picture

Good thing there is no debt anywhere

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 09:48 | 3483451 CheapBastard
CheapBastard's picture

I don't beleive the numbers. More empty mall stores and empty houses in the Hood sitting there for weeks tells me GDP is worse and getting worser.

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 10:40 | 3483675 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

The recovery such as it is is very patchy. In my the neck of the woods the Home Depot that was a tomb in spring of 2009 is so crowded I won't go there on a weekend. The housing market is on fire with bidding wars on every new house complete with smug RE agents. A hundred miles away, out of commuter range of the Silicon Valley, it's dead, dead, dead. Unless you're selling farmland, you can get good prices for that.

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 11:41 | 3483927 syntaxterror
syntaxterror's picture

Go look at the startup companies on (a start up job board). Talk about a bunch of stupid meanlessless bullshit social bla bla bla garbage. But but but they're making money now. God what a joke. Yeah, keep on over bidding you fucking fucks.

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 09:48 | 3483463 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

America can print it's way out of it... don't worry...


Mon, 04/22/2013 - 09:50 | 3483465 Eireann go Brach
Eireann go Brach's picture

The US needs a Black Friday every week!

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 09:52 | 3483482 Banksters
Banksters's picture

4th amendment rights are plunging right along with them.

Police perform house to house raids in Watertown MA ripping innocent families from their homes

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 10:24 | 3483611 rogeliokh
rogeliokh's picture

Man, those Crimexicans hate GOLD

Knock down $19/oz so far and falling during Crimex session.

Bernank Bloodsucker.

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 11:37 | 3483909 rotagen
rotagen's picture

That Leading Economic indicators chart is worth a thousand chuckles.

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 09:34 | 3483392 I need more cowbell
I need more cowbell's picture

Nice charts, but the only macro you need is the POMO schedule.

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 09:35 | 3483395 El Oregonian
El Oregonian's picture

Irrational exuberance?

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 09:48 | 3483464 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

Exuberant Irrationality...

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 09:35 | 3483396 Stormtower
Stormtower's picture

Bad news is good news........

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 09:37 | 3483405 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture




Mon, 04/22/2013 - 09:38 | 3483406 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

It is funny to watch the Fed try and hold the banking system together by destroying the economy.  I am curious.  When was the last time impoverishing the citizens of a nation helped the economy turn around?  It sure didn't work during the depression. 

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 10:20 | 3483595 marathonman
marathonman's picture

Don't think for an instant that the Fed is on your side.  They will hold up the banking system above all else.  It won't help the economy, but that really doesn't matter to them.  Power and control matter.  When push comes to shove, they have the fire power to suppress the oppressed.

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 09:36 | 3483407 spastic_colon
spastic_colon's picture

waiting for the markets to catch down to reality is like rubbing a fake genie lantern.

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 09:38 | 3483410 orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

NASDAQ100 up 40 on Friday and another 20 this morning.


And PC sales fall by the largest percentage ever in Q1.  Gong show is back on.

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 09:37 | 3483412 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

has cnbcrap mentioned the bernak's nephews t-ball game the same day as jackson hole?

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 11:45 | 3483935 syntaxterror
syntaxterror's picture

All the whimpering weasel needs to do is leak an email that incidates there will be moar moar moar QE. No real need to vacation with the banksters in Wyoming.

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 09:41 | 3483422 ekm
ekm's picture

Before QE was known, nobody knew QE.

Now everybody is a QE specialist and everybody is saying QE can never stop.


It's pretty clear that QE made a Light Depression into Deep Depression and it is going to stop, probably during the upcoming May meeting.


Obama and Boehner who are the legal decision makers, will have to make the tough decision as Bush made it in 2008 when he let Lehman go.

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 09:44 | 3483436 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

 Bush made a tough decision to let Lehman go? That's a joke right? That decision was made for him by the banks waiting to devour Lehman. 

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 09:48 | 3483455 ekm
ekm's picture

I am speaking LEGALLY.

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 09:51 | 3483473 espirit
espirit's picture

To the victors, go the spoils.

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 09:52 | 3483480 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

The fed ended QE....waited a month, market tanked...and QE2 was ushered in. If they stop QEwhatever we are on it will only be to get ready to unleash QEwhatever is next. 

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 09:55 | 3483497 ekm
ekm's picture

Correct. Before we'll have more QE, we need to have no QE for some months for a market cleanup.

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 10:00 | 3483515 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

i think the irony is the meth addicts are so junked out the market won't sell off because they will be too busy front running the next QE. No one actually believes they can stop anymore. I bet we see the market climb even if the two month non qe took down a PD or two. 


Mon, 04/22/2013 - 10:03 | 3483524 ekm
ekm's picture

Margin calls force them to sell.

Cocaine is irrelevant during margin calls

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 10:10 | 3483544 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

existing home sales just shit the bed on top of every other data point. the only reason the fed would wind down qe here is if they admitted it was a failure. that ain't happening. we are entering the next recession, and by that i mean another step down in the depression. By jackson hole time we will be over 85 bil a month. they will up qe, not cease it.

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 10:10 | 3483545 ekm
ekm's picture

We will find out

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 10:13 | 3483557 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

ekm did you get a glimpse of what insurers were at thatr meeting with the Potus pre gold knockdown? I don't remember. Those are the Insurers who were lucky enough to make the tbtf list.

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 10:27 | 3483620 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Thanks Doc, I see DB and UBS were the only non U.S presence in the room. My guess is DB won the midget toss but UBS was winning the naked mud wrestling competition and about to prevail when Merkel showed up and submitted UBS. Keep an eye on UBS from here.

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 12:53 | 3484236 Bob Sacamano
Bob Sacamano's picture

How did Edward Jones get on the list? 

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 19:39 | 3485903 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Someone had to supply the Au/Ag shorts...

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 10:11 | 3483528 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Exactly right Fonz. if the fed said they were going to stop buying the market participants would give him a bit "yeah right" and continue to front run. Personally I don't think that the fed will be willing to take that gamble. They have all their chips on "the wealth effect", that's all they have. I don't believe they will risk all that "effort" when their credibility is on the line.

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 10:27 | 3483626 marathonman
marathonman's picture

They have all their chips on keeping alive a Ponzi scheme going bad and keeping the government from defaulting on debt that is unpayable with the current value of the dollar.  Just create more debt/FRN's and the debt eventually becomes more manageable.  Standards of living and middle class evaporates, but what the hell?  If thats the price the pleebs have to pay to keep a bunch of bankers whole and DC power brokers dining on Kobe beef, then that's what we'll have to pay. 

'I pledge allegiance to the flag....'

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 10:46 | 3483698 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

A. No QE for several months while the market cleans itself up.

Q. What is S&P 450?

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 10:48 | 3483706 ekm
ekm's picture

More or less

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 10:02 | 3483527 My Days Are Get...
My Days Are Getting Fewer's picture

If memory serves me correctly, Lehman was killed to preserve the derivatives market.  When Lehman died, a $14 Trillion Dollar gap was created in those markets.  Otherwise, the authorities could have required all market participants to net out their positions to zero, with everyone bagging their individual profits and losses.  Then, the dervatives markets could have been closed forever.  That was made impossible with the $14 Trillion hole

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 10:19 | 3483587 venturen
venturen's picture

I am sure Hank Paulson really shed a tear for Lehman as he signed their death warrant. Then was all smiles as he got the government to give unlimited money to Goldman Sach!

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 09:46 | 3483448 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

QE has been going on for decades.  It just got kicked up a notch.  It really can't ever end.

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 09:49 | 3483461 ekm
ekm's picture



Better way to put is: SLOWDOWN OF QE

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 09:48 | 3483452 Dr. No
Dr. No's picture

It was not a tough decision.  It was no decision.  Which was the right decision in regards to government bailouts.  Too bad the government did not make no decision on AIG, BS, GM, et al.

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 09:56 | 3483493 ekm
ekm's picture

100% AGREE

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 10:16 | 3483571 GeezerGeek
GeezerGeek's picture

Obama has not done a single thing to help the American populace, nor will he; he is dedicated to the destruction of the USA and it's people. Boehner has approximately zero decision-making power. He can only try to control what comes up for votes in the House of Representatives. His only apparent desire is to retain his perks. He has less power than Harry Reid over in the Senate, unless the president and VP suddenly die. But then Boehner would no longer be Speaker of the House. Your statement leaves me unsure of your intent.


Mon, 04/22/2013 - 10:35 | 3483649 ekm
ekm's picture

Boehner, Reid and Obama have CONSTITUTIONALLY 33.33% power each.

Boehner is extremely powerful, legally.

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 09:42 | 3483425 Dr. No
Dr. No's picture

Did they not get the memo?  They need to include "intangables" to flip the frown upside down.

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 09:42 | 3483427 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Combine this with Cat's big "miss" and it is clearly bullish.

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 09:43 | 3483432 Navymugsy
Navymugsy's picture

I will continue to fight the terrorists and "up arrow" any posting with the word "bullish" in it.

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 09:45 | 3483444 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

What about bullshit? Will you up arrow any post with the word bullshit in it? Because we sure are being fed a lot of it lately.

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 09:46 | 3483441 Inthemix96
Inthemix96's picture

I'm with Ekm on this.

Bernspanks ending QE, then the fun starts.

We are fucking doomed thanks to these cunts, expect war next.

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 09:49 | 3483467 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

will bernak tweet "@nephews tball ending qe discuss later close game" to the jackson hole symposium? I hope so. That would be how I announce it.

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 09:51 | 3483470 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

So how are we going to fund government spending and banking profits?

I hate to tell you this.  But we are looking dead in the face of QE5.  All the jabber from the Fed about yes or no on QE is just noise.  They did the same nonsense before QE3 and QE4 came.  They don't have a choice.  The banking system cannot survive when everyone with more than 100k is pulling their money out.  That money is never coming back either.

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 09:57 | 3483499 espirit
espirit's picture

+1 Got to concur with you.  This ponzi must go on until most phyzz is secured, then a false flag EMP can wipe out the fiat debt. 

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 09:52 | 3483479 Abraxas
Abraxas's picture

They first tighten the inflation screw, then they tighten the deflation screw, then the inflation screw again, and so on until our eyes pop out. Every door is being shut and locked. There's no way out of this mad house. We are in the global Guantanamo.

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 09:52 | 3483483 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

You are such an optimist.  I wish central banks would end QE and start paying savers interest (raising rates), but I simply don't see that happening unless you really think a hard default is coming to the U.S. and it can occur in a peaceful manner.  Again, I simply don't see that happening.  So war it is, the manner of which is uncertain.

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 09:55 | 3483495 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

The only reason to END it would be to say "whoops"... Everybody freaks out... More banks consolidate... Then it gets started up again at TWICE the speed...


Problem ~ Reaction ~ Solution

Take another trip on the ferris wheel kids... The fun never ends... & we PROMISE, this time it'll work because, this time, we have the Super Duper Pooper plan in place...

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 09:57 | 3483505 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

100% spot on.

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 09:46 | 3483443 Seasmoke
Seasmoke's picture

This is like the monkeys commercial. You charts are upside down. Just flip them.

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 09:46 | 3483446 JustObserving
JustObserving's picture

In ponzi markets, facts do not matter.  Buy, buy, buy - before the markets go higher. Forward

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 09:54 | 3483488 Jim B
Jim B's picture

Dow 19,000!  BTFD!

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 09:46 | 3483447 Stuck on Zero
Stuck on Zero's picture

Even hockey stick manufacturer profits are down.


Mon, 04/22/2013 - 09:56 | 3483501 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

yep... even ASTROTURF is down!

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 10:00 | 3483518 espirit
espirit's picture

But if you wake up on the green side of Astroturf, are you still in the Matrix?

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 10:13 | 3483560 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

You most definitely are because the patent for Astroturf was given to some guys from Monsanto...

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 10:16 | 3483573 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

as long as you keep taking the blue pills you'll be fine...

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 09:49 | 3483466 LibertyIn2010
LibertyIn2010's picture

I'm sure this isn't connected in any way...

Data shift to lift US economy 3%


The US economy will officially become 3 per cent bigger in July as part of a shake-up that will see government statistics take into...

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 09:52 | 3483484 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

Exit strategy for banker bagholders. 

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 10:50 | 3483716 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

If they do this twice a year we'll be in good shape won't we?

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 09:50 | 3483468 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture


EVERYBODY CAN GO ON VACATION!!!! just don't come back...

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 09:56 | 3483490 moneybots
moneybots's picture

The market has turned into a lagging indicator.


Mon, 04/22/2013 - 09:56 | 3483500 yogibear
yogibear's picture

Admin: Let us adjust the GDP so you feel better and buy more stocks.

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 10:02 | 3483526 Its Only Rock N Roll
Its Only Rock N Roll's picture

I'm "hyper-bullish"

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 10:04 | 3483532 jmcadg
jmcadg's picture

Time to bash the metals then. Oh shit, we've already done that! Smack it again, because we all know that if we keep doing the same thing, we'll get a different outcome!

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 10:14 | 3483558 tennisdude
tennisdude's picture

Observe how the stock market leads the drop as a leading indicator should. Oh wait...

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 10:24 | 3483603 mdtrader
mdtrader's picture

Essentially the macro data is crashing but the market hasn't yet. Wall Street are always last to figure it out. Remember them buyng the Dow at new highs in late 2007, after the financial crisis had started. 

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 10:45 | 3483700 MFLTucson
MFLTucson's picture

Time to get rid of the Hoax!

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 12:05 | 3484021 polo007
polo007's picture

The Endgame is Forced Liquidation - Hussman Funds

NYSE Margin Debt and The Barron’s Big Money Poll charts

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 12:12 | 3484060 Vince Clortho
Vince Clortho's picture

Wait til they factor in the Intangibles.

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