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US Macro Data Plunges To 5-Month Low
In the last few weeks, US macro data has missed expectant extrapolated hope expectations time after time. The deterioration has been very rapid, starting around the third week of March, and has plunged to the worst levels since the ubiquitous equity rally began in November 2012. Combined with dismal micro- performance (and outlooks) from the likes of IBM, GE, and CAT, is there any doubt that this 'market' is disconnected not just from current reality but that 'priced-in' hopes for a hockey-stick-recovery seem improbable at best and exuberant at worst?
The US equity 'market' vs Bloomberg's US Macro Economic Surprise Index...
and Bloomberg Brief's Rich Yamarone has some recent examples that may make this week's GDP hopes look a little rich...
Chart: Bloomberg
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This is going to be fugly.
I keep hearing that.
Everything up today.
bullish!
riding the short bus! choo choo
Bears who are into charts want the S&P up today about 0.5-1%. This will top the ridiculous ramp job with a nice head and shoulders just as "sell in May" is knocking at the door. Copper's declining channel will hit Fibonnaci support in a day or two. What looks like a set up for the big dump continues on plan. It could be epic and is likely soon.
One man's opinion
Thanks for the technical summary.
Amateur technical summary. I don't recommend placing much fiat on the steep end of my learning curve.
The currency markets seem to have gone from largely reflecting other market information, to causing other market information. Through this lens, I would suggest that the US/Japan coordinated printing scheme is going to continue to result in equity market ramps in the absence of something extremely bad happening (note that this apparently doesn't even include domestic terrorism, the threat of nuclear war, or naked theft of customer deposits at banks).
Everything up today.
Except airliners....damn sequester.
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_SEQUESTER_FLIGHT_DELAYS?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2013-04-22-07-18-11
The Keynesians are on fire!
We can only hope.....
@autofixer
I only take exception to the "going to be" modifier. Look around you. This is fugly. Underwriters now allow 84 month car loans. What's next? 30-year auto notes? Walk through a retail store. Notice how people are dressed. Notice their demeanor. The zombie apocolypse is at least 3 years into the making.
Number one indicator: pods is doing cardio.
pods
Now: Survival of the fattest
Later: Survival of the fittest
Same here, started seriously exercising back in May 2010.
Cursive,
In the 80's Japan developed 100 year mortgages. Your point is taken that TS is about to hit TF.
Some very weird things are going to be happening over the next few months;
Numerous earthquakes,
The comet Ison,
The downfall of a major religion.
Which major religion?
Cue Brian Wesbury with his "Don't let this atrocity scare you." or "Why today's Philly Fed miss is meaningless." Perhaps he is right. QE fixes everything!
Zandi interview on Yahoo a week or 2 ago said GDP will be 4% in Q1
Yeah because they are getting ready to cook the already overcooked books with "intangibles".
Intangible=Fed gave Treasury 500 X-large.
pods
GDP would be 10% if the central planners would just borrow and spend even MOAR!!!
What a complete douchebag......he's such an obvious lying POS
Like clockwork!
Wesbury tweets. "Guess what? Growth is back!"
Aw c'mon.......he's just doing what he gets paid for.............
Don't sweat the details......................Just BTFD...........
Correlation does not imply causation. The S&P chart has demostrated resilience in the face of all adverse economic data. The message is clear: we are in a recovery, and the market is pricing in significant economic growth over the next 5-10 years.
Must be 'pricing in' all those 'shovel ready jobs' for those people living in tunnels...
bullish for debt slaves
Sorry, but the redpill users don't believe that bullshit.
Not sure that even blue pill swallowers believe in it!
World War III? Do you get a boner already?
"Correlation does not imply causation"
Yeah, yeah, post hoc ergo propter hoc ... my use of a Latin phrase trumps your feeble alliteration in the realm of the pointy-headed intellectual, so listen up:
Remember the scene in Alien (the first) when they've carefully removed that acid-crab thing from John Hurt's face and he seems to have made a full "recovery" and "demonstrates resilience in face of all adversity"? Then they sit down to eat a hearty meal in celebration thereof and then ...
And then the shit starts for real.
We are awash in Bennie Bucks.............
Good thing there is no debt anywhere
I don't beleive the numbers. More empty mall stores and empty houses in the Hood sitting there for weeks tells me GDP is worse and getting worser.
The recovery such as it is is very patchy. In my the neck of the woods the Home Depot that was a tomb in spring of 2009 is so crowded I won't go there on a weekend. The housing market is on fire with bidding wars on every new house complete with smug RE agents. A hundred miles away, out of commuter range of the Silicon Valley, it's dead, dead, dead. Unless you're selling farmland, you can get good prices for that.
Go look at the startup companies on ventureloop.com (a start up job board). Talk about a bunch of stupid meanlessless bullshit social bla bla bla garbage. But but but they're making money now. God what a joke. Yeah, keep on over bidding you fucking fucks.
America can print it's way out of it... don't worry...
The US needs a Black Friday every week!
4th amendment rights are plunging right along with them.
Police perform house to house raids in Watertown MA ripping innocent families from their homes
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0V4hB9zWi14
Man, those Crimexicans hate GOLD
Knock down $19/oz so far and falling during Crimex session.
Bernank Bloodsucker.
That Leading Economic indicators chart is worth a thousand chuckles.
Nice charts, but the only macro you need is the POMO schedule.
Irrational exuberance?
Exuberant Irrationality...
Bad news is good news........
iCollapse
It is funny to watch the Fed try and hold the banking system together by destroying the economy. I am curious. When was the last time impoverishing the citizens of a nation helped the economy turn around? It sure didn't work during the depression.
Don't think for an instant that the Fed is on your side. They will hold up the banking system above all else. It won't help the economy, but that really doesn't matter to them. Power and control matter. When push comes to shove, they have the fire power to suppress the oppressed.
waiting for the markets to catch down to reality is like rubbing a fake genie lantern.
NASDAQ100 up 40 on Friday and another 20 this morning.
http://bullandbearmash.com/chart/nasdaq100-hourly-trending-bearish-week/
And PC sales fall by the largest percentage ever in Q1. Gong show is back on.
has cnbcrap mentioned the bernak's nephews t-ball game the same day as jackson hole?
All the whimpering weasel needs to do is leak an email that incidates there will be moar moar moar QE. No real need to vacation with the banksters in Wyoming.
Before QE was known, nobody knew QE.
Now everybody is a QE specialist and everybody is saying QE can never stop.
It's pretty clear that QE made a Light Depression into Deep Depression and it is going to stop, probably during the upcoming May meeting.
Obama and Boehner who are the legal decision makers, will have to make the tough decision as Bush made it in 2008 when he let Lehman go.
Bush made a tough decision to let Lehman go? That's a joke right? That decision was made for him by the banks waiting to devour Lehman.
I am speaking LEGALLY.
To the victors, go the spoils.
The fed ended QE....waited a month, market tanked...and QE2 was ushered in. If they stop QEwhatever we are on it will only be to get ready to unleash QEwhatever is next.
Correct. Before we'll have more QE, we need to have no QE for some months for a market cleanup.
i think the irony is the meth addicts are so junked out the market won't sell off because they will be too busy front running the next QE. No one actually believes they can stop anymore. I bet we see the market climb even if the two month non qe took down a PD or two.
Margin calls force them to sell.
Cocaine is irrelevant during margin calls
existing home sales just shit the bed on top of every other data point. the only reason the fed would wind down qe here is if they admitted it was a failure. that ain't happening. we are entering the next recession, and by that i mean another step down in the depression. By jackson hole time we will be over 85 bil a month. they will up qe, not cease it.
We will find out
ekm did you get a glimpse of what insurers were at thatr meeting with the Potus pre gold knockdown? I don't remember. Those are the Insurers who were lucky enough to make the tbtf list.
Here you go Fonz
http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2013/04/11/full-list-of-bankers-at-white-house-meeting-thursday/
Thanks Doc, I see DB and UBS were the only non U.S presence in the room. My guess is DB won the midget toss but UBS was winning the naked mud wrestling competition and about to prevail when Merkel showed up and submitted UBS. Keep an eye on UBS from here.
How did Edward Jones get on the list?
Someone had to supply the Au/Ag shorts...
Exactly right Fonz. if the fed said they were going to stop buying the market participants would give him a bit "yeah right" and continue to front run. Personally I don't think that the fed will be willing to take that gamble. They have all their chips on "the wealth effect", that's all they have. I don't believe they will risk all that "effort" when their credibility is on the line.
They have all their chips on keeping alive a Ponzi scheme going bad and keeping the government from defaulting on debt that is unpayable with the current value of the dollar. Just create more debt/FRN's and the debt eventually becomes more manageable. Standards of living and middle class evaporates, but what the hell? If thats the price the pleebs have to pay to keep a bunch of bankers whole and DC power brokers dining on Kobe beef, then that's what we'll have to pay.
'I pledge allegiance to the flag....'
A. No QE for several months while the market cleans itself up.
Q. What is S&P 450?
More or less
If memory serves me correctly, Lehman was killed to preserve the derivatives market. When Lehman died, a $14 Trillion Dollar gap was created in those markets. Otherwise, the authorities could have required all market participants to net out their positions to zero, with everyone bagging their individual profits and losses. Then, the dervatives markets could have been closed forever. That was made impossible with the $14 Trillion hole
I am sure Hank Paulson really shed a tear for Lehman as he signed their death warrant. Then was all smiles as he got the government to give unlimited money to Goldman Sach!
QE has been going on for decades. It just got kicked up a notch. It really can't ever end.
Correct.
Better way to put is: SLOWDOWN OF QE
It was not a tough decision. It was no decision. Which was the right decision in regards to government bailouts. Too bad the government did not make no decision on AIG, BS, GM, et al.
100% AGREE
Obama has not done a single thing to help the American populace, nor will he; he is dedicated to the destruction of the USA and it's people. Boehner has approximately zero decision-making power. He can only try to control what comes up for votes in the House of Representatives. His only apparent desire is to retain his perks. He has less power than Harry Reid over in the Senate, unless the president and VP suddenly die. But then Boehner would no longer be Speaker of the House. Your statement leaves me unsure of your intent.
Boehner, Reid and Obama have CONSTITUTIONALLY 33.33% power each.
Boehner is extremely powerful, legally.
Did they not get the memo? They need to include "intangables" to flip the frown upside down.
Combine this with Cat's big "miss" and it is clearly bullish.
I will continue to fight the terrorists and "up arrow" any posting with the word "bullish" in it.
What about bullshit? Will you up arrow any post with the word bullshit in it? Because we sure are being fed a lot of it lately.
I'm with Ekm on this.
Bernspanks ending QE, then the fun starts.
We are fucking doomed thanks to these cunts, expect war next.
will bernak tweet "@nephews tball ending qe discuss later close game" to the jackson hole symposium? I hope so. That would be how I announce it.
So how are we going to fund government spending and banking profits?
I hate to tell you this. But we are looking dead in the face of QE5. All the jabber from the Fed about yes or no on QE is just noise. They did the same nonsense before QE3 and QE4 came. They don't have a choice. The banking system cannot survive when everyone with more than 100k is pulling their money out. That money is never coming back either.
+1 Got to concur with you. This ponzi must go on until most phyzz is secured, then a false flag EMP can wipe out the fiat debt.
They first tighten the inflation screw, then they tighten the deflation screw, then the inflation screw again, and so on until our eyes pop out. Every door is being shut and locked. There's no way out of this mad house. We are in the global Guantanamo.
You are such an optimist. I wish central banks would end QE and start paying savers interest (raising rates), but I simply don't see that happening unless you really think a hard default is coming to the U.S. and it can occur in a peaceful manner. Again, I simply don't see that happening. So war it is, the manner of which is uncertain.
The only reason to END it would be to say "whoops"... Everybody freaks out... More banks consolidate... Then it gets started up again at TWICE the speed...
~~~
Problem ~ Reaction ~ Solution
Take another trip on the ferris wheel kids... The fun never ends... & we PROMISE, this time it'll work because, this time, we have the Super Duper Pooper plan in place...
100% spot on.
This is like the monkeys commercial. You charts are upside down. Just flip them.
In ponzi markets, facts do not matter. Buy, buy, buy - before the markets go higher. Forward
Dow 19,000! BTFD!
Even hockey stick manufacturer profits are down.
yep... even ASTROTURF is down!
But if you wake up on the green side of Astroturf, are you still in the Matrix?
You most definitely are because the patent for Astroturf was given to some guys from Monsanto...
as long as you keep taking the blue pills you'll be fine...
I'm sure this isn't connected in any way...
Data shift to lift US economy 3%
The US economy will officially become 3 per cent bigger in July as part of a shake-up that will see government statistics take into...
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/52d23fa6-aa98-11e2-bc0d-00144feabdc0.html
Exit strategy for banker bagholders.
If they do this twice a year we'll be in good shape won't we?
EARLY SUMMERVACATION COMMING UP!!!
EVERYBODY CAN GO ON VACATION!!!! just don't come back...
The market has turned into a lagging indicator.
Admin: Let us adjust the GDP so you feel better and buy more stocks.
I'm "hyper-bullish"
Time to bash the metals then. Oh shit, we've already done that! Smack it again, because we all know that if we keep doing the same thing, we'll get a different outcome!
Observe how the stock market leads the drop as a leading indicator should. Oh wait...
Essentially the macro data is crashing but the market hasn't yet. Wall Street are always last to figure it out. Remember them buyng the Dow at new highs in late 2007, after the financial crisis had started.
Time to get rid of the Hoax!
The Endgame is Forced Liquidation - Hussman Funds
http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc130422.htm
NYSE Margin Debt and The Barron’s Big Money Poll charts
http://www.scribd.com/doc/137361022/The-Endgame-is-Forced-Liquidation-Hussman-Funds
Wait til they factor in the Intangibles.