US Macro Data Plunges To 5-Month Low

Tyler Durden's picture

In the last few weeks, US macro data has missed expectant extrapolated hope expectations time after time. The deterioration has been very rapid, starting around the third week of March, and has plunged to the worst levels since the ubiquitous equity rally began in November 2012. Combined with dismal micro- performance (and outlooks) from the likes of IBM, GE, and CAT, is there any doubt that this 'market' is disconnected not just from current reality but that 'priced-in' hopes for a hockey-stick-recovery seem improbable at best and exuberant at worst?


The US equity 'market' vs Bloomberg's US Macro Economic Surprise Index...


and Bloomberg Brief's Rich Yamarone has some recent examples that may make this week's GDP hopes look a little rich...

Chart: Bloomberg

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
_ConanTheLibertarian_'s picture

This is going to be fugly.

flacon's picture

Everything up today. 

Richard Chesler's picture

riding the short bus! choo choo

DeadFred's picture

Bears who are into charts want the S&P up today about 0.5-1%. This will top the ridiculous ramp job with a nice head and shoulders just as "sell in May" is knocking at the door. Copper's declining channel will hit Fibonnaci support in a day or two. What looks like a set up for the big dump continues on plan. It could be epic and is likely soon.

One man's opinion

toys for tits's picture

Thanks for the technical summary.

DeadFred's picture

Amateur technical summary. I don't recommend placing much fiat on the steep end of my learning curve.

Panafrican Funktron Robot's picture

The currency markets seem to have gone from largely reflecting other market information, to causing other market information.  Through this lens, I would suggest that the US/Japan coordinated printing scheme is going to continue to result in equity market ramps in the absence of something extremely bad happening (note that this apparently doesn't even include domestic terrorism, the threat of nuclear war, or naked theft of customer deposits at banks).  

Cursive's picture


I only take exception to the "going to be" modifier.  Look around you.  This is fugly.  Underwriters now allow 84 month car loans.  What's next?  30-year auto notes?  Walk through a retail store.  Notice how people are dressed.  Notice their demeanor.  The zombie apocolypse is at least 3 years into the making.

pods's picture

Number one indicator: pods is doing cardio.


Jack Napier's picture

Now: Survival of the fattest
Later: Survival of the fittest

Panafrican Funktron Robot's picture

Same here, started seriously exercising back in May 2010.  

toys for tits's picture


In the 80's Japan developed 100 year mortgages.  Your point is taken that TS is about to hit TF.

Some very weird things are going to be happening over the next few months;

Numerous earthquakes,

The comet Ison,

The downfall of a major religion.


CvlDobd's picture

Cue Brian Wesbury with his "Don't let this atrocity scare you." or "Why today's Philly Fed miss is meaningless." Perhaps he is right. QE fixes everything!

Jacque Itch's picture

Zandi interview on Yahoo a week or 2 ago said GDP will be 4% in Q1

Dr. Engali's picture

Yeah because they are getting ready to cook the already overcooked books with "intangibles".

pods's picture

Intangible=Fed gave Treasury 500 X-large.


syntaxterror's picture

GDP would be 10% if the central planners would just borrow and spend even MOAR!!!

kliguy38's picture

What a complete douchebag......he's such an obvious lying POS

CvlDobd's picture

Like clockwork!


Wesbury tweets. "Guess what? Growth is back!"

Translational Lift's picture

Aw c'mon.......he's just doing what he gets paid for.............

Translational Lift's picture

Don't sweat the details......................Just BTFD...........

MillionDollarBonus_'s picture

Correlation does not imply causation. The S&P chart has demostrated resilience in the face of all adverse economic data. The message is clear: we are in a recovery, and the market is pricing in significant economic growth over the next 5-10 years.

francis_sawyer's picture

Must be 'pricing in' all those 'shovel ready jobs' for those people living in tunnels...

espirit's picture

Sorry, but the redpill users don't believe that bullshit.

StychoKiller's picture

Not sure that even blue pill swallowers believe in it!

Bunga Bunga's picture

World War III? Do you get a boner already?

Liquid Courage's picture

"Correlation does not imply causation"


Yeah, yeah, post hoc ergo propter hoc ... my use of a Latin phrase trumps your feeble alliteration in the realm of the pointy-headed intellectual, so listen up:

Remember the scene in Alien (the first) when they've carefully removed that acid-crab thing from John Hurt's face and he seems to have made a full "recovery" and "demonstrates resilience in face of all adversity"? Then they sit down to eat a hearty meal in celebration thereof and then ...

And then the shit starts for real.

Translational Lift's picture

"The message is clear: we are in a recovery"  ***NOT***

We are awash in Bennie Bucks.............

azzhatter's picture

Good thing there is no debt anywhere

CheapBastard's picture

I don't beleive the numbers. More empty mall stores and empty houses in the Hood sitting there for weeks tells me GDP is worse and getting worser.

DeadFred's picture

The recovery such as it is is very patchy. In my the neck of the woods the Home Depot that was a tomb in spring of 2009 is so crowded I won't go there on a weekend. The housing market is on fire with bidding wars on every new house complete with smug RE agents. A hundred miles away, out of commuter range of the Silicon Valley, it's dead, dead, dead. Unless you're selling farmland, you can get good prices for that.

syntaxterror's picture

Go look at the startup companies on (a start up job board). Talk about a bunch of stupid meanlessless bullshit social bla bla bla garbage. But but but they're making money now. God what a joke. Yeah, keep on over bidding you fucking fucks.

Sudden Debt's picture

America can print it's way out of it... don't worry...


Eireann go Brach's picture

The US needs a Black Friday every week!

Banksters's picture

4th amendment rights are plunging right along with them.

Police perform house to house raids in Watertown MA ripping innocent families from their homes

fomcy's picture

Man, those Crimexicans hate GOLD

Knock down $19/oz so far and falling during Crimex session.

Bernank Bloodsucker.

rotagen's picture

That Leading Economic indicators chart is worth a thousand chuckles.

I need more cowbell's picture

Nice charts, but the only macro you need is the POMO schedule.

El Oregonian's picture

Irrational exuberance?

Stormtower's picture

Bad news is good news........

Quinvarius's picture

It is funny to watch the Fed try and hold the banking system together by destroying the economy.  I am curious.  When was the last time impoverishing the citizens of a nation helped the economy turn around?  It sure didn't work during the depression.