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March New Home Sales As Expected While Average Home Price Plunges To Nine Month Low
It is only logical that after last month's New Home Sales miss (exp. 420, printed 411K), which sent the market higher, today's tiniest of beats in New Home Sales, which printed at 417K, on expectations of 416K, would also send the market higher. The total months of supply indicated was 4.4, the same as February, and well above the 4.0 from January. Unnoticed in the release was that the January housing data was revised higher from 431K to 445K, meaning last month's drop would have been even more acute (-7.6% instead of -4.6%), but who cares about such things as data chronology now that the headline effect is long gone. All that matters is that the trend is the mainstream media's friend, which can report new home sales have grown once more... if only back to levels last seen in April of 2010 when the same number was 422K. Was the data actually meaningful on a long-term basis? We will let readers decide on their own after one look at the chart below.
Digging between the numbers, we learn that the bulk of the jump was driven by New Home Sales in the south which rose from 180K to 215K seasonally annualized, while New Home Sales in the West tumbled from 139K to 110K.
Unadjusted, the actual number of houses sold in the Northeast and Midwest was a tine 4K each, with just 10K houses sold in the West, while Houses in the South soared to a multi-year high of 21K.
Looked at another way, on an actual basis, of the 40K homes sold in March, 13K were no started, 14K were under construction, and 13K were completed.
Finally, and this will not be mentioned anywhere, the average New Home price plunged from $310,000 to $279,900 - the lowest since June of 2012. One can only imagine the step down in quality that was required to make up in volume what was "lost" in price.
Elsewhere, the Richmond Fed and the MarkIt PMIs were absolute disasters, but if we bring attention to how badly they missed it will only send the joke that is stocks even more limit-er up.
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markets expecting new QE this AM? or is this 1 last stop run before we FINALLY correct more than 3 fucking percent?
Let them RENT - BHO
"if only back to levels last seen in April of 2010 when the same number was 422K."
Excuse me, Tyler. They were last seen then. They were FIRST seen in the well, probably 1940s or 1950s . . . per:
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fredgraph.png?g=7iv
and that was with 50 million or so fewer buyers?
The whole propaganda bullshit is pathetic.
"All real estate is local"...and in most localities house prices are still 30-40% too high.
I'm cheap, why pay more now when you 'll be able to grab the boxes later much much cheaper.
well, I figure you are a SLUM LORD. you probably don't really fix up your properties either to increase values of your neighborhoods...you say "people just need a place to live".
the real estate and bank people cohort...the banks blame the realestate people and the real estate people blame the banks.
meant for Warhorse
If the housing market were a horse, it would be Swedish meat-a-balls by now.
pods
ROFL...9.95, pods. I'd a-given ya a 10 if you italicized "meat-a-balls"
But, but, but...Reuters says the housing market is reco--
See the chart above a few lines up where I posted it. It's from the Fed. It shows what "recovery" is.
The market jump today is just more BTFD mentality
Just wait and see the implosion when it doesn't work anymore!
How can you seasonably adjust every freaking number out there? Last time I checked there were only four seasons and they don't change by all that much.
If the sheep believe it, you just keep doin' it.
More like the sheep want to believe it to stay in denial of how bad things really are
South is up 35k while the West is down 29k? Could that be a result of people fleeing the failed liberal tax hell of the Left Coast and headed to Texas?
Hey, I resemble that remark. I finally got the hell out after 30 years and moved to the Lone Star state.
Are they waiting for that Chief Joseph trading moment ?
"I will short no more, forever!"
417,000 new homes popping up? Yea sure....Just how dumb do they think we are?
Rebuilt Sandy houses are called "new". And I have heard that remodeled bank foreclosures that release to market can be called "new".
Regardless, the story is told here:
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fredgraph.png?g=7iv
Jesus ! I believe ! New homes for followers !
"Ba da ba buh baa, cornholin' it"
maybe they counted the end of the world 2012 maya bunkers that where build as new homes?
....
or maybe they just counted the number of cardboard boxes that where sold as new homes?
...
BUY A NEW HOUSE FOR ONLY 34,31$$!!!!
http://www.amazon.com/Pacific-Play-Tents-Super-Duper/dp/B00083HOXA/ref=sr_1_16?ie=UTF8&qid=1366729020&sr=8-16&keywords=tent
THIS IS SUPER DUPER!!!
Bulls think they're fuckin' Clubber Lang but now it's time for the rematch.
National Association of Realtors running non-stop commercials about how great home ownership is - so things can't be that good; they remind me of the JCP 20% off "please come back" coupon I got in the mail the other day.
O.T. - Just watch those fuckers in CONgress collude to pass the Internet Sales Tax:
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/04/22/us-usa-tax-internet-idUSBRE93L...
The fucking harpies from both "sides" of the aisle passed CISPA, so why not?
Next will be the national sales tax, and the 401K/IRA "stability levy" of 10%.
The desperation is becomming palpable
God damned two-faced whoreson bastard banker lackey politicians.
Speaking of which...anyone seen Long Soup Line of late?
Home ownership IS great...if you bought in 1968.
In California.
If you bought in Detroit you actually lost all your money.
When was the last time a house cost $500 in Detroit?
I think Park Place cost $500 with a house.
This tax bill they are working on today to force internet businesses to collect sales tax is the back door to a national sales tax. Due to the vast number of different local and state taxing rates and agencies, a national system will be required to coordinate the whole thing. Once that is in place there will need to be accounting for processing cost and overhead, of course! Every tax we have today started out to pay for one thing and was typically only 1% and then quickly morphed into a broader concept with rates and expenditures ramping up. We must stop our government from enacting anything, not one single law. They are done. They have demonstrated their inability to function for the ultimate benefit of its citizens at virtually any level. When we discover we are in a hole, we must stop digging! I can't take anymore being saved, its killing me!
Sales tax based on dollah value? Sorry, but my company only accepts the $1.00 coins for payment, so your tab is say... $3 face value this month.
and amzn is rallying
The bulk of demand for housing is still in the low cost market. The really cheap stuff is largely gone or held up by the banks. Low cost homes are largely built with low cost labor (read "illegal"). Completely bullish for the Mexicans! Go long on gay black women with hispanic sur names, fluent in Chinese, that attend mosque. Everyone else is screwed.
Hell yes - that's every employers dream. All minority quotas wrapped up with just one hire.....
I've been thinking of going gay. Its seems the only "growth" opportunity left to me. Besides, as an old white guy, having no sex life should be pretty much the same gay or straight. I just might have to dress nicer.
That's it. I'm taking my company public and seasonally adjusting my sales. Actual sales 125k units. Seasonally adjusted 10 million.
Oh and I'm booking the profit on the 10 million as well. Works for Apple.
Quoted from CNBC...
"The median sales price for a new home was $247,000, up 3.0 percent from a year ago."
It's all in how you spin it, baby!
Direction and momentum are only important when going up. Everything else is judged through relativity to its lowest common denominator. You can only make money by selling at a higher price, so those running the game will always keep it moving up. There just has to be enough down moves to keep everyone engaged. Pure manipulation. Its as easy as hot pants.
jobs and income might be needed to help housing, just a guess
Philly Housing Index is currently near 190.
http://bullandbearmash.com/chart/weekly-philly-housing-index-hgx-holding...
Housing vendors are way below their 2005 highs - not much of a recovery.
less of what it is not and more of what it is.....destruction.
thank you tyler for exposing just how bad the housing data is.
only in this market can we get horrible data from the worlds 2nd largest economy in china, on the cusp of contraction, and also in the 1 country in europe which was thought to be the most stable out of the bunch, germany, destabalizing, and yet this market sees that as a good sign i guess.
the bigger joke is that the financials are up 2 plus percent on this news. cant make this shit up
How to average 279K. Add $27,900,000 + $27,900 (nine times) and devide by 10 or something like that.
It's the American Dream , you have to be asleep to believe it.
Anything that comes out about housing is pure fiction. And if you're into that, here's a suggestion:
"For Whom the Bros. Toll" by Earnest Fudgingway
The S.F. Bay Area is screaming higher with condo sales out the ass.
Newly-minted tech yuppies, PRC Party members diversifying, whatever else.
I am not buying it, literally; instead enjoying my gold, silver, oil and NEM positions :/
There is major building South of Market and multiple offers on lofts in Emeryville, etc.
It's a boomtown on the heat map, but aside from the coasts, I question the future, given we are certainly not minting many home-grown buyers with $9.00 jobs.
Average price in my area has risen this year, but does not tell the whole story. Out of 137 sales in January and February, only 5 were from the $250,000 and up price range (and there are plenty of houses in that range). The largest number of sales were under $70,000.