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Apple Earnings - The Hangover
While immediately after earnings, we were treated to a plethora of self-justifying talking heads exclaiming how wonderful the worst news was, how positive the future looked, how leveraged dividends were great, and how awesome iPhones 5S sales will be inevitably; it seems the market (which one bright chap noted 'must know something' when the stock was soaring) is now testing its recent lows... The selling appears to have started once Tim Cook began pitching the future like a European politician and bitching about the competition as opposed to discussing the current state of affairs. AAPL has dropped almost 9% from its overnight highs and is near 17 month lows.
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But Goldman slacks told me it was going to a thousand.
and Cramer told me TWO thousand !!
One guy on BBG or CNBS (never even heard of his firm...bottom barrel stuff?) said if estimates would rise and price fall it'd be one hell of a great stock... Going to $1000
Happy happy joy joy
Cut CNBC some slack....don't you remember when they told everyone to pile into gold at $256/oz?
Yeah and later they told us it was frothy at $500/oz
That whole NASDAQ pop was a shock to everyone......maybe they were just a little gun shy at that point.
I don't know about you guys, but I think this AAPL is an absolute steal at about $40.
I've been waiting for this summer for sentiment to hit rock bottom. This earnings release was bound to be the trough with all the new products coming out this fall. Once I start seeing a bottom form, I'm hopping in with both hands and feet. Of course they guided lower for the next quarter because they're refreshing all their products this fall!!! What jabronis go out and buy an iphone 5 two months before the 5S comes out? Certainly not the jabronis I know.
And I'm sure I'll get flamed for this, but I'm not even an Apple fanboi. I (obviously) use an ipod but have never had a Mac, or an iphone, and my tablet is a Nexus 7 (which I love). But that doesn't mean I'll mind making money on the stock ;)
I wasn't the one who junked you.
AAPL is shouting from the top of their lungs THEY ARE NOT A GROWTH stock anymore, they now simply are a value stock. The only thing to be decided now is what represents fair price for this value stock.
Those who are waiting for "rock bottom" expecting it to sling shot back up and continue the insane trajectory we have seen the last few years are deluting themselves.
Those days are over.
I don't care what the fuck they are coming out with, who the fuck is going to buy it?
I didn't junk you, either, you still don't get it though.
Hi nugjuice - yes, we are all here for the money :) let us know when you see the bottom formed ... thanks!
Samsung and Apple are now trading at about the same PE. While I think the valuation has been normalized at around the $400 level, the headwind is median real global disposable income growth.
The only Apple products that were any good were the ones that Steve Jobs worked on. Any new products that Apple introduces in the future will be post-Jobs products and what are the chances they will be any good? They might be OK or even nice, but what are the chances that they will be blockbuster products like the Mac, iPod, and iPhone?
Bernanke said it was going to infinity and beyond...or did someone else say that?
I think I wrote in another post that I would gladly buy Apple between $30-$60 per share. I got all this feedback from Apple people that the infrastructure they own, the P/E ratio is such that it could never be less than $150. Hmm..
Cramer the fucking carnival barker was touting AAPL to the moon. Surprised someone hasn't just beaten the piss out of him
So you knew it would not ...
That'll learn ya! I never listen to my pants!
AAPL can buy back more than 25% of its shares over the next two years, plus expand its P/E in the same process. They do not need to grow anymore to be attractive.
But Tim Cook really needs to know how to keep his mouth shut about delayed product releases--he could have had the whole world rumoring a 5S all summer if he had not transparently hinted that nothign will come until this fall.
This makes AAPL a free-play ground for HFT short tricks of all sorts this summer, as there is no danger of getting squeezed by a sudden product release int he middle of the trading day.
AAPL MMs will kill off all straddles on the W options by trading the stock flat for the next three days. After that, AAPL stock will just be something to daytrade for a few months.
If they had stuffed Steve Jobs and propped him up at Apple's HQ they would have been okay. His lifeless corpse would still have more innovative ideas that Tim Cook.
yeah blame it on Timmy ... way to go ... at least he has paid his taxes
"AAPL stock will just be something to daytrade for a few months"
People actually buy and hold AAPL?
I thought I heard a billion voices scream out in agony....then fell silent.
That was Siri just playing back pre-recorded screams.
OHHH ok.
In ether space no one can hear you laugh
If there is to be balance, what you have seen must be forgotten.
Gravity is a bitch!
A barbaric relic, sort of ....
Tradition.
APPL = Commodore Computers?
No way man, Commodore Computers let you do what you want to do, not what it tells you to do.
Reggie was right !
Yes, and now the fruit company is going into massive debt to pay dividends because it doesn't want to repatriate it's cash and invest in software and data... While it's gross margin collapsed 25% y/y. They're going to make Nokia look like a buy by the time they are done
We don't give a SHIT about 'the future'.....where's mah stawk gains RIGHT NOW! I demand instant Apple gratification!
only thing worse than a worm in the apple is finding half of a worm!
I thought that accountants can produce any earnings figures the company wants.
Yeah, so when they produce bad numbers you know everything has really gone to shit.
Please crash
Kind of fun to watch the Apple cult fall all over itself, bathing in apologetics after crucifying the PC crowd. Die Apple, die!
But Apple is so cool! Their stuff is white!
"But Apple is so cool! Their stuff is white"
So are bird shit
Everybody bought a iPoof because it was a statement that THEY WHERE ORIGINAL AND CREATIVE just like everybody else.
Apple is the prime example that people want to think they're individuals but are nothing more than mainstream morons following the crowd.
A iPhone is now like a bumpersticker that says "IDIOT ON BOARD".
Me, I have a nokia that will still work even after a meteorite crashes down on top of it and works for 5 days without recharging.
I won an iPod and have never used it and don't plan to. When I was grabbing a coffee and a young guy nearby was excited and showing me the ads his iPhone was sending him based on tracking where he was located - - - it cooled me considerably on the BigBrother Apple cult. I asked him if he had signed up for this 'service' and he said no he hadn't, and didnt think much about it being any kind of problem at all. Dumb fucker.
hahahaha!! +1000!
Yep, sure you can hack and disable the GPS tracking, but who wants to give their money to a bunch of Eichmanns? Android is even worse.
I suppose people will give up freedom for conveneince 9 times out of 10, and the rest of us are just along for the ride.
My 65 year old father, who has never owned a computer, recently bought an iPad. He also recently joined Facebook. Ergo, short AAPL and FB.
Apple won't die. It makes hardware like Dell and Asus (Taiwan brand).
It is amazing how they packaged their hardware and were able to charge a premium. What a white or stainless wrapper can do for a product - who would have guessed?
Steve Wonder the one and only!
Basically, Algos should be banned... Talking heads should be banned and arrested for WMDs.. Words of Money Destruction
speaking of hangovers...
"Troubled homeowners who received modified mortgages through a federal program are seeing high default rates, a troubling trend that officials inadequately understand, according to an investigator’s report released Wednesday.
The oldest permanent modifications made through the federal Home Affordable Modification Program, which launched in 2009, were redefaulting at a rate of 46.1% as of March 31, according to the report from the special inspector general overseeing the Treasury Department’s efforts to shore up the U.S. financial system. HAMP’s permanent modifications from 2010 have redefault rates ranging from 28.9% to 37.6%.
“The number of homeowners who have redefaulted on a HAMP permanent mortgage modification is increasing at an alarming rate,” the report said. “Treasury’s data shows that the longer a homeowner remains in HAMP, the more likely he or she is to redefault out of the program.”
Unfortunately, Treasury officials have an insufficient understanding of factors behind failures, according to the report."
but there is a twist the mod loans are NOT non-recourse loans
the banksters Gotcha this time emeffers starting with your firstborn and ending with your iPhone
We chose to default on our modification and Chase blinked first - Thank you my homie Jamie D!! Now we have a way WAY better mod than the first way better mod. My mortgage is nearly half of what it was originally and (gasp) about what it should have been all along. We should have never qualified for the loan and wish we hadnt. I missed out on the only winning move (not to play) before I woke from the sheeple slumber but now its game on bitchez. Bleed and starve the beast. Death by 1000 papercuts. We need to start a national "Dont pay your taxes" campaign that would start some shit right quick.
Good post Fonz thanks...
iGravty is a iBtch.
Apple makes hardware. All hardware margins erode to razor thin outcomes over time. No exceptions.
Apple making a TV - for such a smart company, what a bonehead move - more low margin hardware.
Bang & Olufsen?
It won't be sold in competition with other hardware brands. Apple will seek to make money on the distribution of intellectual property. Think iTunes as a model. http://www.apple.com/appletv/what-is/
They might as well give the hardware away for free and try to rake in the dollars from the consumables. I read that Gillette did that during WW II: gave away their razors to GIs, then made money when the GIs needed more blades for the razors.
bubbliscious...
One cannot pay too much for crAAPL.
What's the expiration date on that apple juice? I'm sure someone turned it in to cream.
Where's Reggie?
Ireland!
The next bubble will be something only blacks and latinos buy.....
All that is left is a glorified seller of Iphone 4 and 4s on the cheap. Unless they come up with a new product really soon that goes gangbusters, it's over.
There has, of course, been significant chatter about a wrist device called an 'iWatch'. I don't know if Apple has reserved the name for its use, but I do know that there are products currently available (such as a CCTV DVR system) that use the name iwatch already. I don't know what Apple might implement on one's wrist device, but the Dick Tracy comic strip had some neat watches back in the 1950s that did radio and later TV. Maybe Apple can foist it off as a retro/nostalgia device.
Then, too, there's the City of Los Angeles with their iWatch website (http://lapdonline.org/iwatchla), and I wouldn't be surprised if the national Fusion centers and Stellar Wind are part of some greater governmental I WATCH YOU program.
Now if they invent an iCum they will be back into the stratosphere. A gadget which taps directly into the brain centers where orgasm originates.
Welcum to Soma and the new world order, Brave New World.
What's the forward PE now, like 8? Plus a div and $145B.
Hmmmm.
value trap.
just like RIM was
It's not a value trap until the next big thing flops or they destroy the brand with iPhone Africa.
Maybe they can get the new immigration bill to require that all Marcophones be Apple iPhones. Then Apple can charge $1000 per phone, as the government loves to overpay.
If its not a value trap, then where do you see growth? Samsung is eating their lunch. Margins are tightening. They are laying off sales staff. doesn't sound like growth to me.
Imagine if they bring out some new products and they get some growth back. 3% yield, up to $60 billion share buyback!
I get the Apple bashing and agree 700 at the time was ridiculous. But this is still one great company. I have been using their products for over 20 years and am very pleased. I do not trade the stock though, too violent for me. I don't know where it bottoms but lets not write off Apple just yet. They have great products, true, we don't need most of them but that does not stop most from buying them. At some point I agree with some posts here this will be an excellent buy. They actually have real profits and a few bucks in the bank. Or should we buy homebuilders instead?
I think the tone here is more directed at the momo crowd, nothing wrong with the company.
Nothing wrong with the company as long as they come up with another stellar product.
Since news came out that most of their profits are based on the iPhone instead of apps and music (the gifts that keep giving) we all see what they really are: a hardware pusher.
If they don't come up with another blockbuster - or when someone else builds a gorgeous phone/tablet that all of a sudden takes over (something that eventually WILL happen) - they will become a classy high-end tech niche brand, as they were before.
Just remember Sony and Nokia, and keep it real.
So far we have iPod then iPod with telephone iPhone, then bigger iPhone without telephone IPad. We do not have a decent sized screen on an IPhone to rival Samsung Note 2. IPad has a camera in portrait which makes Skype a bit odd in video chat. They are too slow at innovating
So far we have iPod then iPod with telephone iPhone, then bigger iPhone without telephone IPad. We do not have a decent sized screen on an IPhone to rival Samsung Note 2. IPad has a camera in portrait which makes Skype a bit odd in video chat. They are too slow at innovating
Made a bet in September that GOOG/AAPL would break 2.0. Got paid on Friday but didn't see it as a one-off (although that would have been fun).
Still see AAPL lower, maybe below $250. People need to realize AAPL is "Just A Company".
That doesn't mean it won't be around in 20 years.
Just that people will regard it with less than religious reverence.
Maybe they should have taken the $50 Billion and just hired a few hundred thousand lawyers in the world and then sued everybody...
About $150 a share is cash. So you are valuing the buinsess at less than 3 times times earnings lol, also at $250 the yield would be 4.8%.
I believe the cash is sitting in a not yet taxed account, so you have to devalue that. Their margins are sinking and anybody who has ever dealt with apple as a supplier knows that pay back is going to be a dish served cold. I think that "E" is going to struggle and then who knows how desperate they will become. It just seems like a lot of bloom is off on this.
When companies get into trouble, big trouble, it is rarely obvious while the stock is going down that it will end up bad...but that is the trend.
The company said it sold 37.4 million iPhones and 19.5 million iPads worldwide in the three-month period.
This is struggling???
Ban on short sales next.
In a few years, APPL will be searching for its place among the fallen dynasties of DELL, INTC, MSFT, and CSCO.
"In a few years, APPL will be searching for its place among the fallen dynasties of DELL, INTC, MSFT, and CSCO."
Yep. Will they still be around, yes - most likely. Will they be the focus of adoration and worship from the dumb masses - probably not.
Then again, they were counted out long ago and made a big come back. Maybe NSA/DARPA will pass on some technology to them for the next BigBrother, Next Big Thing. People seem to like that sorta product.
"I have my own theory about why the decline happens at companies like IBM or Microsoft. The company does a great job, innovates and becomes a monopoly or close to it in some field, and then the quality of the product becomes less important. The product starts valuing the great salesmen, because they're the ones who can move the needle on revenues, not the product engineers and designers. So the salespeople end up running the company."
Steve Jobs, October 2011
Remember before Hewlett-Packard became HP ?
Yup - and Tektronix before they became a Rigol outlet! The old kit can still be bought at auctions but it tends to be expensive.
I'll take a 20" iPad Maxi please!