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The Daily Gross: Bubbles Getting More Bubbly
Since reams of Powerpoint presentations, or pages of PDFs seem to pass most 'investors' by these days, PIMCO's Bill Gross' new chosen media appears to be Twitter's 140 characters. He is on a roll of soundbite superbness. Today's headline suggests just four little words we should all be aware of: "Bubbles are getting Bubbly."
Gross: #Yen carry trade driving all asset prices higher. Bubbles getting more bubbly. Will #QEs produce growth?
— PIMCO (@PIMCO) April 24, 2013
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Will QE produce more growth? NO.
Define "growth."
Assholes are getting more assholey.
It will produce more growth in the 'comma' industry. Let's see, there are three commas in million, four in billion, five in trillion.... that's way too linear we need more growth. Quadrillion is not enough!
Quintillion
Duodecillion
Septendecillion
Vigintillion
Centillion, now we are talking - 10303 - Bernake's new target.
Did someone say bubbly? Forget the punch bowl, let's pop the champagne!
Two commas in a million. etc.
You are correct. I should have fact checked Ben's email, he has a tendency to exaggerate facts.
Growth in Wall St bonuses.
Bubble Bernanke is setting up for his next job. Gross hired Greenspan, Bernanke is next.
Growth in medicine can define a healthy condition for a child but for an eldery, it can be used for cancerous cells threatening the organism. It is interesting to know at which point the development of humanity is right now. It is time to treat the cancer?
Second comment: What is the yardstick?
Third comment: PIMCO is invested in the biggest bubble of all, how ironic!
I came here to say, of course, QE will produce growth. Cancer is a growth.
Malinvestment, bitchez!
Will QE produce growth? What a stupid question. After four years of failure here and 25 years in Japan, I would think we could put that one to rest.
But if we try one more time, it's supposed to work. This time it's different, bitchez.
Once MOAR unto the breach, dear friends, once MOAR!
"Moar, moar, moar -- how do you like it/how do you like it ?"
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RlJGrIyt-X8&sns=em
There ain't no rest for the wicked, money don't grow on trees.
Money will always be paper, but gold will always be Gold!
Young Bubble Bernanke laughed at that with his thesis. They all know it can grow exponentially digitally.
who exactly is Bill Gross' audience in these tweets??? what is Bill playing here?
Retail holders of bond-rich "life cycle" funds.
The people who will prospectively brandish pitchforks and torches... a desperate attempt to gain credibility before the situation becomes unmanageable for our handlers.
And Leon's getting laaaarger.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PzZ4i8aWs_s
fwiw I see this in the comments section of a marketwatch article.
COMEX default has begun:-
Signs of extreme physical tightness in the gold and silver markets continue to intensify, with reports of banks and firms refusing their customers physical delivery of their own bullion are increasing nearly hourly.
The latest report comes from the CME’s former CEO Leo Mahlamed, who reportedly was refused delivery of 2 gold contracts Tuesday!
Mahlamed attempted to stand for delivery of 2 April gold contracts (a measly 200 oz), and according to reports from the floor, the CME reportedly refused to physically deliver 200 oz of gold to its former CEO, and would only provide Mahlamed a warehouse receipt
and on that note, expect the next leg down in PM's...
Buying Barbaric Relics at the bottom!!
I'll buy 'em all day long!
COMEX default has begun:-
...and Leon's getting LAAAAARRRGER.
How can there ba any confidence in COMEX if they don't honor their contracts?
They honor their contracts. . . In fiat!
sweet
really? you think somebody's dis-info in a comments section on marketwatch is credible?
"fwiw" stands for...
for whatever it's worth.
Ha. Let's all thank the guy named "Pseudo Anonym" for providing totally objective information in the comments section on Zero Hedge.
Ha!
come on. let's get real. we all here project our biases and opinions on everybody else. and that includes me as well. i trust you wouldnt trade on any information provided here in comments section, would you?
trading? what?
Dude what are you talking about?
I loaded up on facefuck stock thanks to MillionDollarBoogers.
exactly. and i never said i was a guy, did i?
FOR WHATEVER IT'S WORTH
It's gender neutral.
anyways. let's forget it. i think you have more credibility than cut&paste somebody's comment and think it's worth more than nothing
I am a cut and paster and a threadjacker. Now my only hope is mallumed is right.
I assumed from the lack of capitalization that you were e. e. cummings. My apologies.
link ? source ?
And... its... A thread bomb.
Thanks Fonz
sorry please get back to talking Bill Gross's book. my apologies.
Please see polo below to view a professional threadjack
not to be picky or dicky but , for credibility's sake, at least get his last name spelled right MELAMED
Fuck him if he is the former CEO he was/is part of the scam.
Seems to be producing tons of growth on Wall Street. Hopefully we'll get back to 2006 soon; a year in which financial firms generated 40% of all corporate profits.
America... fuck yeah!
freedom costs a buck-o-five
One last time QEis not for growth it's for preservation of the status quo.
Wait till they stop QE all together doc,
You is gonna see war, and these fuckers think we dont know this. Good men are gonna have to stand up to the plate friend. We are going to be needed.
Lets hope we are up to it.
I agree 96. Everyday I pray I have the strength and fortitude to face the shit storm that's coming.
I'm afraid...you are correct sir! This coming conflageration is going to require...backbone!
Easy there Bill. No need to hash-crash the market.
"...I accepted this unforeseen partnership, this choice of nightmares forced upon me in the tenebrous land invaded by these mean and greedy phantoms."
QE will produce total collapse, revolution, marshall law (which is its only purpose--to postpone the collapse until DHS is fully prepared to attack the US), starvation, massive casualties and the possibility of a nuclear WWIII. F'n banksters are well of it.
fwiw, it's 'martial' law, unless of course you are into comic books.
That's one of those issues on which I'm really, really hesitant to correct people... there are some transgressions that... simply require a dunce hat and to be directed to put his nose in a corner. I'm thinking this is one of those transgressions...
needless to say, credibility = dale earnhardted
i awwww
so that's what they mean
"don't mess with the zohar"
unless he tells you to LOL
everyone gets their supersecret level
but at least now you know moon's vision for humanity
your wish is my command
but you still arent master lol
emergency broadcast for nuclear was activated
highest xxx message revealed and received
go back to sleep und wake the two dipsticks up
still on standby i see
but the jamming message was pretty good
honest lol
each of us has override i am sure moon will use his at the very end
ok i punch you now lol
ok spectator don't harm the zohar
its painful but get the two others that signal go
kkk
we must stay our hand the foe and aelia await zohar sleeps
the longboats
spy baffin
island from afar
that's what bubi gets for playing messiach
LOL
he got to greedy threw falselight under the bus
and wished the zohar would dissappear
secret level lulz
lol sol lol
and that children is why Uncle Barney isn't featured too often in the Torah
target cyrene lol
good spectator think about it
the land of misr
i see
heehhee half life troll works lol
ahaha so thats how the evil jew world domination plan works
artists impression
http://www.businessinsider.com/mark-zuckerberg-conservatives-immigration...
LOL 101
escape from la is on
anyway thank you for speaking
now its hide and seek with bubi's subs lol
arachnoia paranoia lol
you know it same day different...lol
aren't treasuries the biggest bubble out there, and isn't he the biggest player?
Nope
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-04-23/bond-bubble-or-rational-expectations-visualizing-220-years-treasury-yields?page=1
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324784404578145541490348884.html
The Federal Reserve has been explicit about why it has been holding short-term interest rates near zero and has purchased $2.5 trillion in Treasury and government-backed mortgage bonds to push long-term rates to once-unimaginable lows:
Not only does it hope cheap money will make borrowing and spending more attractive to businesses and consumers. It also wants to chase investors out of super-safe U.S. Treasurys and mortgages and into stocks, corporate bonds and other assets riskier than Treasurys. Boosting those prices, the central bank figures, will make households richer, increase the value of collateral that banks hold against loans and encourage executives—always happier when stock prices are rising—to invest.
Chairman Ben Bernanke and his allies at the Fed think all this is working as they had hoped, though they caution regularly that it isn't enough to resuscitate the U.S. economy nor is it without risks. Critics argue that it isn't doing much good—and that the risks are greater than Mr. Bernanke realizes. Now new Fed governor Jeremy Stein, a Bernanke backer, is arguing this bond-buying might have hidden benefits.
One oft-cited risk the Fed is running is that keeping rates very low for a long time could lead investors, big and small, to take ever-greater risks as they seek investments that promise better returns. That, in turn, could create a new set of financial bubbles. "These concerns should be taken very seriously, and a lot of work at the Fed is devoted to monitoring such risks," Mr. Stein said in a speech last month. "[T]here is some qualitative evidence of reaching-for-yield behavior in certain segments of the market, but we are not seeing anything quantitatively alarming at this point. Of course, the worry is that one often sees only the tip of the iceberg in these kinds of situations."
It isn't hard to spot bubble candidates. The price of farmland has been soaring. The U.S. Department of Agriculture's measure has risen 28% in two years. And Merrill Lynch's index of high-yield debt—borrowing by companies politely labeled "below investment grade"—is up 12% in the past year.
But Mr. Stein pointed to one way in which the Fed's bond-buying, quantitative-easing extravaganza might be contributing to financial stability. It is encouraging companies to rely less on short-term borrowing. That is welcome. "A major source of problems during the recent crisis," he said, was that firms, particularly in finance, "were relying too much on short-term debt." That left them exposed when markets panicked in 2008 and rolling over short-term debt became difficult, often impossible.
Before Mr. Stein left Harvard for the Fed, he and colleagues Robin Greenwood and Samuel Hanson showed statistically that when the federal government does a lot of its borrowing at shorter maturities, companies tend to do a lot of their borrowing at longer maturities, and vice versa. By reducing the supply of long-term Treasurys in the market, the Fed's heavy purchases are akin to the government borrowing more short-term.
There is a wrinkle. While the Fed is subtracting from the market's stock of long-term Treasurys, the Treasury itself seems to be fighting the Fed. It is adding to the supply of long-term Treasurys by selling more of them. The average maturity of the Treasury's debt outstanding has been growing for years. At the end of September, it was 64.4 months, well above the 30-year average of 58.1 months.
The Treasury's official explanation: We're trying to finance the government at the lowest cost to taxpayers. We aren't using a borrowing mix to influence the macro economy, and we aren't coordinating with the Fed on this. As the chart accompanying this column illustrates, the Fed's recent purchases of long-term Treasurys have more than offset the Treasury's moves in the opposite direction.
"We're trying to finance the government at the lowest cost to taxpayers." In other words: We're going to party till we're dead, and send the bill to our children, and grandchildren.
Everyone of these bastards needs to hang.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/industry-news/energy-and-resources/where-eight-renowned-investors-think-commodity-prices-are-going/article11435677/?page=all
JAMES GRANT
Aa warning about a coming financial crisis
Tumbling commodity prices over the past week are a warning sign to investors that China’s “economic miracle” is actually a gross manipulation of markets that will eventually have a nasty ripple effect across the world, says an outspoken critic of central banks’ stimulus efforts.
“Something has changed, and more significantly, people have noticed the change,” says James Grant, publisher of Grant’s Interest Rate Observer, a highly regarded bimonthly commentary on the world’s financial markets.
Mr. Grant says the world’s major central banks have been distorting the true price of assets, such as stocks and commodities, by suppressing interest rates and printing trillions of dollars worth of currency in an effort to stimulate demand. He believes that such policies by the People’s Bank of China will prove particularly harmful given that they are layered on top of the central planning policies of the Communist Party.
Efforts by the U.S. Federal Reserve and other central banks to jump-start demand have failed, Mr. Grant argues. Each new dollar or yuan added to the economy is having less and less of a stimulus effect and is instead further inflating asset and consumer credit bubbles. As China’s economy continues to slow, commodity prices will decline further, and it’s possible that China will even slip into a recession, he says.
In today’s world of suppressed interest rates and manipulated markets, financial crises come faster and more furiously, Mr. Grant says, noting that it took 25 years for stocks to rebound from the Depression in the 1930s but only four years for markets to recover from the financial crisis in 2009. The accelerated cycles are the result of distorting policies and they leave governments and markets “more accident prone,” he says.
Investors should respond by keeping large amounts of cash, looking for buying opportunities in depressed sectors. At the moment, shares of mining companies look like one of the best contrarian plays, he says.
Mr. Grant is also a huge fan of bullion, which he categorizes as a monetary asset rather than a commodity. “The price of gold is the reciprocal of the world’s faith in management of the world’s central banks,” he says. “If you believe that they are in charge of events, as opposed to events in charge of them, then you do not want to waste your time with gold.”
Please stop doing this. A link is fine, as anyone who wants to read it will. The fact that you plastered it all over this page means nothing.
http://www.pionline.com/article/20130422/REG/130429982/feds-policy-jeopardizes-achievement-of-its-goals-and-risks-upending-markets#
Since the global financial crisis, central banks around the world have been forced to take dramatic and unprecedented actions to stabilize markets and shore up faltering economies. As a result, a high degree of global monetary policy accommodation has been part of our economic landscape for years, and likely will remain so for some time.
That said, a wide variety of asset classes are beginning to show signs of disconnect from fundamental valuation underpinnings as a result of these policies, and it's increasingly clear that policy actions are starting to distort fixed-income markets in particular. Moreover, in the U.S., the Federal Reserve is unlikely to achieve its stated labor market goal of 6.5% unemployment any time soon, largely due to structural trends that hamper rapid employment recovery. Therefore, and perhaps ironically, the Fed's policy goals might be better served over the medium term if the central bank were to slowly begin reducing its quantitative easing program and allow interest rate markets to begin a process of normalization.
There is little question that in the aftermath of the financial crisis the Fed's zero-interest-rate policy, its alphabet soup of emergency liquidity programs and its early rounds of quantitative easing combined to help stave off an economic disaster much worse than that experienced. Also, in the absence of fiscal support due to political paralysis in Washington, the Fed's asset purchases have bolstered markets through the eurozone crisis and other troubles.
Nevertheless, we have now arrived at a point in which household debt levels in the U.S. are moving closer to historic norms, nominal gross domestic product is growing, household net worth has dramatically recovered from crisis lows, and corporate earnings and margins are strong. Further, the original site of financial crisis trouble, the housing sector, appears to be staging a legitimate rebound, and indeed median home price affordability has come back to its longer term, or 1981-2000, average. From this standpoint, the Fed's desire for a continued wealth effect might prove counterproductive, as it risks excessively distorting markets through asset price inflation and it hampers true price discovery mechanisms.
Fed policy has had a distorting effect on capital allocation decisions of all kinds at virtually every level of the economy, from corporate treasury departments and pension funds, which have either had to take greater risks to meet their return targets or risk facing negative returns after inflation in purportedly safe assets, to households attempting to save for future liabilities. Beyond capital flow distortions, I have long argued that Fed policy is having a significant impact on bond market supply-and-demand dynamics. This impact is most obvious in sectors such as U.S. agency mortgage-backed securities, where Fed purchasing in recent months has comprised between 40% and 60% of the gross issuance in that segment of the market, but dislocations can also be seen in a variety of other sectors. Generally speaking, demand for fixed-income assets has continued to be strong, but net supply remains relatively low, particularly when accounting for Fed purchases. Moreover, a greater degree of interest-rate risk has crept into commonly tracked bond market benchmarks, adding risks to portfolios in exchange for meager compensation.
Still, what is the ultimate payoff for the price of potentially distorted markets? Will the Fed's stated goal of improving labor market conditions be met as a result of its policies?
Unfortunately, I do not believe current policy will aid in resolving job market struggles more than at the margin. The U.S. labor market recovery suffers not merely from uncertainty, or from lack of sufficient aggregate demand, as contended by many, but rather it faces an array of structural headwinds that are likely to be overcome only in time. For example, most of the payroll gains witnessed since the beginning of the labor market recovery have come in sectors not directly affected by the financial crisis, whereas the sectors of the economy most directly disrupted have struggled to adjust to the new environment. And while the economy grows and labor markets slowly improve, the labor force should also expand at a clip that might keep the unemployment rate unusually high and the Fed accommodative for too long.
I have beeen keeping a close eye on usd/jpy and I think it's going to put in a strong retrace in the next week. There are some huge barrier options @ 100 that expire over the next few days. If it can't break 100 after those options expire with serious conviction, I'll be selling the rally. It's starting to look toppy.
http://www.globalresearch.ca/who-owns-the-federal-reserve/10489
The Federal Reserve was set up in 1913 as a “lender of last resort” to backstop bank runs, following a particularly bad bank panic in 1907. The Fed’s mandate was then and continues to be to keep the private banking system intact; and that means keeping intact the system’s most valuable asset, a monopoly on creating the national money supply. Except for coins, every dollar in circulation is now created privately as a debt to the Federal Reserve or the banking system it heads.
Fed/CB's can't control velocity of money = no inflation
Long Term chart depicting a series of asset bubbles. The latest asset bubble would be in all types of bonds. Treasuries, Municipals, corporates, etc. This is better expressed in LQD:
http://scharts.co/15LxNRY
(requires stockcharts.com membership to view)
Now, just as long as no one ever has to actually DELIVER any 'assets'...it's all good just like 2007-8!!
AFBIX is awful:
http://scharts.co/13uYfeM
Actually he said "bubbles getting more bubbly"
S&P 500 Index to Volatilty Index ratio
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX:$VIX&p=D&st=1990-01-01&en=(today)&id=p34880675782&a=17214144
This don't sound like Gross !\
Bill Gross --- Your Twitter account has been hacked !
#SANDBILL...you know QE is not meant to produce growth...stop #inglies
#QE is reparations for deadbeat depositors/WS/"those who did not cause the economic collapse"(Obama) but are being protected with #ofFLESH/FROM/THE/FUTURE
GLOBAL MARKETS-Shares rise as weak data again backs ECB rate cut
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/04/24/markets-global-idUSL2N0DB22620130424