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Oil Surges Most In 5 Months With eMini Volume Near Lows Of Year
After touching multi-year highs amid the exuberance of liquidity sloshing around the world, Oil became too glaring a concern and two weeks of suppression took the only Central-Bank-'Governor' to much more comfortable levels. But, the last week has seen the biggest 5-day jump in WTI in 8 months and today the biggest jump in 5 months. It seems the 'Brent Vigilantes' are back. Equities traded in a very narrow range after yesterday's #HashCrash and eMini volumes were among the lowest of the year. An early afternoon ramp, aided by EURUSD, failed at overnight highs and collapsed back to VWAP as the machines were in charge once again. Treasuries rallied from early morning high yields ending the day lower in yield (TSY yields down 1-2bps on the week against a 30 point rally in the S&P!!) Durable goods dismal data just reinforced Europe's donut and stirred the bad-is-good mantra as Trannies outperformed, but interestingly once again the Dow was unable to break above pre-Boston levels. FX markets were relatively calm for once as gold, silver, and copper all gained. VIX ended up for the day by 0.25vols at 13.75%.
WTI Crude on the resurgence - must be all the growthiness in the data - or simply the Brent Vigilantes back..
and perhaps the other central bank regulator... Gold has had the biggest 7-day run in 19 months...
The Dow seems unable to break that pre-Boston level for now...
E-Mini volume was very low today (lower pane) as was the day's range (mid pane). Interesting pattern and seasonality to range expansion in the S&P also (orange ovals)...
Commodities all gained on the day...
and Treasuries were bid...
Charts: Bloomberg and Capital Context
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A strengthening economy means higher demand for oil. Duh.
/sarc
It will be interesting to see what sort of beast emerges from these pregnant markets when they finally give birth. I think the water broke today.
I prefer the Runaway train analogy, myself. The brakes have failed. The track is failing apart. The Conductor is going coach to coach for money. The bridge is out. And, the brakeman is shovelling coal in as fast as he can, hoping to jump the collapsed bridge.
Ben thinks that if the train reaches 88 miles per hour it will transport the U.S. economy back to 1985. He loaded the Bux Capacitor and he's ready for the jump.
U.S. Markets Peaking 04-24-2013
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nq_fyWyk09E
+1 Bux Capacitor. nicely played
That's gotta be bullish for stawks. Just in time for the U.S. holiday next month.
Whoop whoop. Oil up.
Yeee - Fucking - HA!
Gotta love oil. Keep yer gold, with oil you can raise an army of machines and ride roughshod over the turf and bodies of the meek.
Oil > Gold.
"Oil > Gold"
Yes it is. But it's a bitch to store in your basement.
Not if it's diesel / #2. One of the nice things about having converted everything possible to diesel is that my twin, 330 gallon home heating tanks double as fuel reserves (we heat primarily with wood).
I doubt any one of you understands sound money.
Try picking up your oil from the bottom of the ocean next century and seeing if you can sell it.
We'll all be dead by then you dumb shit.
Putting aside stem cells, cyborgs, etc.
Let's say 20 years instead. Savvy?
I think you need to go an educate yourself on the demographic pyramid of the wider world, starting with India.
Why should I give a shit about Cyborgs or stem cells? Are either of those energy sources or liquid fuels?
You're fucking clueless.
Lol,
I can't believe you think cyborgs will be around in 20 years!
What a dickhead.
er... on the planet I'm from , oil floats on water.
In your basement?
Fuck that.
Buy it and leave it in the ground, it comes with perfect storage facilities.
the whole world uses the stuff now
not just the declining first world
It's an amusing narrative.
If oil drops in price:
"Oil was down today on evidence the economy is not growing."
If oil goes up in price when there is bad economic data its:
"Oil rose today . . . on technical factors."
The Peak Oil ridicule has been so intense that any even remote hint of a supply problem is attacked angrily.
But . . . suppose there is a supply problem, determined by geology, and immune to more investment? Just suppose there is.
How would it look different from today?
Answer: Not at all.
let's see,... gold sells off, the dollar stagnates and oil rises? did i miss anything...
?
Peak oil and peak fiat. It's a hell of a combination.
it is indeed. peak debt and peak energy are kissing cousins. and the inbreeding produces all sorts of contortions
from the oildrum: Total Production by the Top Five Oil Majors Has Fallen by a Quarter Since 2004Posted by Luis de Sousa on April 19, 2013 - 3:09am
Topic: Geology/Exploration
Tags: bp, chevron, exxon, matthieu auzanneau, shell, total [list all tags]
This is a guest post by Matthieu Auzanneau, a freelance journalist in France, author of the Oil Man blog at Le Monde, where this post first appeared.
The combined crude oil production of the five main international oil companies (Exxon, BP, Shell, Chevron and Total) hit an historic high in 2004. Since then, it has fallen by 25.8%, despite large increases in investments.
And despite aggressive redefinitions of oil and attempts to acquire production by purchase rather than exploration.
It's still down.
That's an "Oh Shit" chart if I've ever seen one. =o
I'm thinking more along the lines of....say, Israel...Iran..Syria...war!
Ummm ...
Brent-WTI = up a buck and a half! Where's the party?
It better be up bucks and more bucks or crude gets shut it. Then, you have a big, big problem.
VLO vastly overbought today....
You would have to be a total numbskull to have any money in these "markets" at all. Gold miners had a collective boner today. That's about it. Oversold when paper gold prices went down and now in a good position as demand for physical is decoupling from paper prices. Would I throw hard earned money at it? NOPE. Buying physical is all I want to afford.
The Stock Market Now Follows the Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet - Gluskin Sheff
http://www.scribd.com/doc/137808058/The-Stock-Market-Now-Follows-the-Federal-Reserve-s-Balance-Sheet-Gluskin-Sheff
It's easier to suppress gold prices than oil prices. When WTI > $110 I am going to start buying random puts.
https://secure.nexgenfinancial.ca/content_print.php?sid=1644&l=en
NexGen Turtle Funds April 2013 Commentary
The financial markets have had a strong start to the year with the S&P TSX up approximately 3% in the first quarter and many other global markets being even stronger. In light of the many significant long term macroeconomic headwinds that are limiting economic fundamentals, a question on many people’s minds is “Why are the markets so strong while the economy is so weak?” If we were to assess other times in history when economic growth was as limited as it is now and combine this with the major issues we have now, such as excessive debt, demographic challenges’ and ineffective government, we would expect much weaker financial market performance. So what is going on? I believe the answer lies in the fact that all of the major central banks (US Federal Reserve (Fed), European central Bank (ECB) and The Bank of Japan) are all effectively printing massive amounts of currency and using this to actively purchase government securities in the open market. This so called ‘Quantitative Easing” is really unprecedented in its scale and has the effect of driving down interest rates to unsustainably low levels which therefore causes many investors to seek higher returns in the equity markets. In this ultra-low interest rate environment savers are punished, borrowers are rewarded and risk taking is encouraged. It is extremely ironic that all major governments now have a policy to encourage debt and risk taking when most agree that this is what led to the 2008 financial crisis!
The scale of this “money printing” can be seen in Exhibit #1 below which shows the size of the balance sheet of the US Fed Reserve. As you can see, it has grown from approximately $800 Billion in 2008 to over $3 Trillion currently. This is a 275% rate of growth is just 4 years.
All Federal Reserve Banks - Total Assets, Eliminations From Consolidation - Federal Reserve
http://www.scribd.com/doc/137811631/All-Federal-Reserve-Banks-Total-Assets-Eliminations-From-Consolidation-Federal-Reserve
The oil futures prices are manipulated like fuck anyway.
"Summer is in cumin in, and loudly sing coo-coo"
Looks like the pre-summer oil price hike is underway…or, a war is in the offing…
"Bulluc sterteþ, bucke uerteþ,
Murie sing cuccu!"
+1 for the Middle English musical reference.
Great, maybe the 14 loaded tankers sitting outside NY harbor, at Ambrose Anchorage, since last week will start heading to the terminals. Shits bad for buisness.
It was pretty obvious today from the way mini's traded that the algo's had been switched off after yesterdays debarcle. Look at the distribution of prices. There were no probing to run the market up on itself for 6 points, and there was, for a change, back and forth price action. And it wasn't like there was no data or anything... there was. These HFT's should just be banned, period.
Man, that yesterday's spike is like a nail in the coffin. :)
Maybe the miners are low because of the possibility that they may get "nationalized" at some point.
S&P 500 Index to Volatilty Index ratio
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX:$VIX&p=D&st=1990-01-01&en=(today)&id=p34880675782&a=17214144