"Panic" For Physical Gold Spreads To UK Where Royal Mint Sales Of Gold Coins Triple

Tyler Durden's picture


Following the entire "developing" world (where faith in paper money "backed" by $1 quadrillion in derivatives is at times questioned, and instead the people, for some inexplicable reason, fall back to hard currency equivalents) scrambling out to their local precious metal dealers to find "out of gold" signs virtually everywhere, yesterday it was the US Mint's turn to announce it had halted shipments of the popular one-tenth ounce gold American Eagle coin as it had run out, following a surge in demand (we expect this shortage will soon spread widely to traditional one-ounce denominations shortly).

Things in the US have gotten so bad, not only are most online dealers backlogged weeks and months in advance for most PMs (as the CEO of Texas Precious Metals explained in detail), but respected bullion vaults are also now on the verge of running out of inventory. As Reuters described, "Michael Kramer, president of Manfra, Tordella & Brookes (MTB), a major U.S. coin dealer in New York, has been inundated by orders from existing and new wholesale and retail customers. "It's panic. This is one of the busiest times in quite a while. People think gold's at the lows and they want to take advantage."

It was only a matter of time before the last bastion of paper money, London, also succumbed to the soaring demand for physical, and sure enough moments ago Bloomberg reported that the "Britain’s Royal Mint, established in the 13th century, sold more than three times more gold coins this month than a year earlier as prices declined."

Sales are more than 150 percent higher than last month, according to Shane Bissett, director of bullion and commemorative coin at the Royal Mint.

“Since the dip in the price of gold we have seen increased demand for our gold bullion coins from the major coin markets, and this presently shows no sign of abating,” Bissett said by e-mail in response to questions from Bloomberg. “The Royal Mint continues to supply to its customers and is increasing production to accommodate the higher demand.”

Its not only the UK Mint, but a pervasive global "panic" to get as much gold as possible while prices are as low as they are, courtesy of the recent takedown in spot.

Standard Chartered Plc said yesterday its gold shipments to India last week exceeded the previous record by 20 percent and were double the total of the week before.


“The concern is really how long it can last,” said Dan Smith, an analyst at Standard Chartered Plc. “A lot of people surge in on the low prices and then they are likely to back away a bit as prices rally and they’ve restocked.”

Don't worry, Dan: for now the surge is going on, and on, and on, and so on. We will be sure to inform you, however, when physical demand is finally satisfied. Until then, we have several months of backlogged demand to catch up on, and possibly the default of one or two depositories in the meantime.

Finally, for all those confused by the non-linear relationship between paper gold (selling via ETFs and other), and physical gold (buying via retail and corporate channels), here is Bank of America with a quick and dirty summary of how to think about the relationship:

With prices now below $1,500/oz, we expect a pick-up in jewellery demand in the medium term and see considerable pain for miners should prices dip below $1,200/oz. As such, we believe the downside to gold prices may be limited to an additional $150/oz. In fact, we estimate that jewellery demand may become so pronounced by 2016 that prices could trade above $1,500/oz even if investors remain net sellers. Looking at sensitivities from a different angle, investors would need to buy merely 600t of gold to sustain prices at $2,000/oz by 2016, compared to non-commercial purchases of 1,798t in 2012.

So yes - physical demand can and will offset even virtually unlimited paper selling, assuming of course demand for physical persists at the recent pace.

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Wed, 04/24/2013 - 13:13 | 3493435 Pladizow
Pladizow's picture

Im from America, isnt that Veerd!

Wed, 04/24/2013 - 13:24 | 3493464 Pinto Currency
Pinto Currency's picture





Investors know a bail-in is coming and are getting off of the investment grid:


BOE’s Carney’s DIESELBOOM: Policy-Makers Working Diligently to Devise an International “Bail-In” Regime

Wed, 04/24/2013 - 13:29 | 3493515 AllThatGlitters
AllThatGlitters's picture


Not seeing much panic today in spot price:

Live:  http://www.pmbull.com/gold-price/

Plus, the physical gold bars on that page are still at just $21 over spot.

So, when does the panic for gold in the US kick in?


Wed, 04/24/2013 - 13:32 | 3493538 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Perhaps tomorrow I will have some feedback for you re my LCS having gold in stock.

Wed, 04/24/2013 - 13:35 | 3493557 Pinto Currency
Pinto Currency's picture



The price is simply advertizement. 

The news is the physical flows at the various physical exchanges - and they are huge.

If this is true, it is pathetic:


Wed, 04/24/2013 - 13:41 | 3493590 SilverIsKing
SilverIsKing's picture

Anyone with a GoldMoney account with concern for their holdings?

Wed, 04/24/2013 - 13:51 | 3493639 redpill
redpill's picture

I always have concern for holdings I'm not holding.

Wed, 04/24/2013 - 14:01 | 3493683 James_Cole
James_Cole's picture


Looking at sensitivities from a different angle, investors would need to buy merely 600t of gold to sustain prices at $2,000/oz by 2016, compared to non-commercial purchases of 1,798t in 2012.

I'd like to see how BoA (always a reliable source) arrives at this logic / math. 

Jewellery demand has been depressed for a decade, with prices heading down it makes sense that demand would pick back up again, but that doesn't mean the price will follow. 

Take a look at this chart and pay attention to three things; investor demand, jewellery demand and spot price:



Wed, 04/24/2013 - 14:16 | 3493766 fonestar
fonestar's picture

I hope these dipshits in the cartel realize what they did.  Instead of scaring people out of gold & silver they have only driven people into it and severely wounded any credibility they had left.

Wed, 04/24/2013 - 14:18 | 3493785 redpill
redpill's picture

Yep I think it's finally going to backfire on the a-holes.

Wed, 04/24/2013 - 15:34 | 3493870 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

I hope these dipshits in the cartel realize what they did.  Instead of scaring people out of gold & silver they have only driven people into it and severely wounded any credibility they had left.


Kind of the 'INVERSE' sociological response vis-a-vis people who were shilling bitcoins just about 3 weeks ago dontcha kno?

Edit: Hey Look!... 2 bitcoiner junks... But on a positive note, it's nice that you geek-a-zoids are beginning to see the light of day... [I doubt the joojunkers ever will]...

Wed, 04/24/2013 - 15:44 | 3494205 strannick
strannick's picture

Even the bloody Brits are finally clueing in. Jolly good for them...

Wed, 04/24/2013 - 15:51 | 3494236 TeamDepends
TeamDepends's picture

Well I've got to run to keep from hidin'

And I'm bound to keep on ridin'

And I've got one more Silver Dollar

But I'm not gonna let 'em catch me no

Not gonna let 'em catch the midnight rider

Wed, 04/24/2013 - 16:23 | 3494409 unclebill
unclebill's picture

Didn't they said that gold is not money?.......I've been miss informed

Wed, 04/24/2013 - 21:50 | 3495612 Crash Overide
Crash Overide's picture

I am long Goldmembers...

Wed, 04/24/2013 - 16:26 | 3494426 draug
draug's picture

Meanwhile, bitcoin is back at $150+. (And I take beeing called a geek as a compliment.)

Wed, 04/24/2013 - 22:11 | 3495683 Ctrl_P
Ctrl_P's picture

-1 for spellling you tossser.

Wed, 04/24/2013 - 16:48 | 3494509 fonestar
fonestar's picture

WTF does Bitcoins have to do with it?  I've been into coins since I was eight years old.  I've been invested in silver since $12/oz and Bitcoin since 2010.  Been on eBay since 1998.  I need to work on being fashionably late.

Wed, 04/24/2013 - 14:38 | 3493877 seek
seek's picture

I think it already has -- the cartel is the BBs, who screwed up and had to have the central banks rescue them with the slamdown on AU pricing. The central banks are going to throw the BBs under the bus once they have enough of their AU back, and rest assured the lease supply (along with physical) is going to disappear.

I'm still trying to understant WTF happened to the lease rates on 4/19, maybe it was part of a rescue as well.

Wed, 04/24/2013 - 14:44 | 3493902 jayman21
jayman21's picture

What if the inventories are just being moved between mints/depositories?  Who is selling right now?  Who is buying?


Good luck

Wed, 04/24/2013 - 17:28 | 3494654 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture



I'd love to take credit for doing my part, but I only bought Krugs this month.  So hat tip to the rest of y'all.

Wed, 04/24/2013 - 18:09 | 3494665 fuu
fuu's picture

Go Team.

Wed, 04/24/2013 - 17:23 | 3494632 rosiescenario
rosiescenario's picture

This recent gold take down just confirms with the few doubting Thomases left that both the stock and commodity markets are rigged for the sole benefit of the big noyz who we as tax payers just had to bailout a few years ago.



Wed, 04/24/2013 - 14:16 | 3493771 JailBank
JailBank's picture

Well demand should skyrocket after Kim and Kanye's baby is born.

Wed, 04/24/2013 - 15:01 | 3493988 Panafrican Funk...
Panafrican Funktron Robot's picture

Agreed that it's a dumb argument, I tend to look at aggregate demand vs. aggregate production in coming to a rough estimate of the fundamental picture, and even there, the price of gold has a commodity and currency component to it, and the currency part is particularly hard to nail down with any degree of utilizable accuracy.

Main point, I think forecasting the price of gold is about as useful as forecasting the price of AUD/CAD.  Who the fuck knows, really?  

Wed, 04/24/2013 - 13:59 | 3493689 whotookmyalias
whotookmyalias's picture

We've heard rumors of the gold not there for so long, many take it as fact. I've seen recent rumors of exchanges refusing to provide physical delivery against futures contracts.  If true (which I believe based on my scant knowledge), once it hits mainstreet media, the S is going to hit the fan like never before.  Buckle up, pucker up, and pop some popcorn or you'll feel like Clark Griswold when he says "holy shit, where's the tylenol".

Wed, 04/24/2013 - 16:51 | 3494521 Rip van Wrinkle
Rip van Wrinkle's picture

One thing I'll guarantee. It will NEVER make the mainstream media.

Wed, 04/24/2013 - 21:53 | 3495624 GeezerGeek
GeezerGeek's picture

And I never thought I'd hear Bill Maher attack high tax rates or admit that Islamic jihad is far more dangerous than evangelical Christianity. But he did both, recently.

Strange days have found us.

Wed, 04/24/2013 - 15:27 | 3494097 Croesus
Croesus's picture

I'm concerned about the holdings of other Goldbugs.....please send them to me, immediately, for safekeeping.


Your Friendly Neighborhood Bankster

Wed, 04/24/2013 - 15:55 | 3494250 Levadiakos
Levadiakos's picture

Your address please

Wed, 04/24/2013 - 15:55 | 3494255 PontifexMaximus
PontifexMaximus's picture

You mean short positions?

Wed, 04/24/2013 - 16:04 | 3494306 HardAssets
HardAssets's picture

The level of criminality is starting to become more obvious. 'Rule of Law' for us serfs doesnt apply. The crooks just change the rules, right after positioning themselves to take advantage of the changes.  So many people are looking at multiple approaches. They could try to confiscate physical gold like in the 30s. But they could also declare overseas PM accounts 'illegal' or try to prevent you access to it by not letting you travel overseas, or monitor your online transactions.

The best 'security' there is in this time is informing and educating as many of the sheep as you can. Praying can't hurt either.

Wed, 04/24/2013 - 14:48 | 3493641 Troll Magnet
Troll Magnet's picture

Oh Gawd...Please don't quote or link silverdoctors.com.  That's like quoting the Enquirer.

You guys can down vote me all you want but the fact of the matter is, if you've been listening to "The Doc" and his bullshit, you'd be about 50% poorer.  Today alone, he cites someone who knows someone who knows someone who says some former CEO of CME stood for delivery on his measly 2 contracts but was denied.  How much longer are you guys gonna fall for this bullshit?

Buy gold and silver (I am) but don't trot out these trolls as some credible source on anything.  There are gullible people out there who might listen and lose their shirts.

Wed, 04/24/2013 - 14:54 | 3493963 JLee2027
JLee2027's picture

When you start naming names, times, and amounts, that's specific enough to publish.

Wed, 04/24/2013 - 15:16 | 3494059 Troll Magnet
Troll Magnet's picture

Riiiight.  The same douchebag who said gold will never go below $1,700 again.  And how silver is about to go parabolic.  Because the game was up!  They were all out of gold and silver!!!  Over and over and over again.  Just until before they were smashed down to $1,300 and $22.  Very credible!

Wed, 04/24/2013 - 15:25 | 3494091 HulkHogan
HulkHogan's picture

Silver Doc is porn for goldbugs. Nothing more, nothing less. Instead, I get my advice from trusted sources on major news stations, such as Jim Cramer.

Wed, 04/24/2013 - 16:34 | 3494460 draug
draug's picture

The problem with the goldbug story is that it was built on the belief that a hyperinflationary collapse of the USD was imminent. Well so far it's been "imminent" for five years and has failed to materialize. Meanwhile, modern-day shoe shiners and elevator operators are screaming "gold!" in every forum across the net - which should have been as clear a sales signal as any.

Wed, 04/24/2013 - 16:49 | 3494504 akak
akak's picture

Bullshit.  I am sick to death of that ridiculous strawman argument of the deflationary flat-earthers.

It has almost solely been the deflationist morons who keep screaming about hyperinflation --- most so-called 'goldbugs' do not and have not, from all that I have read.  What the gold advocates HAVE trumpeted, and rightly so, is the inevitability of currency debasement as a result of the exponentially rising governmental debt and corresponding monetization of that debt.  That currency debasement need not take the form of hyperinflation, just as it did not during the 1970s, when the US dollar still managed to lose two-thirds of its value in one decade.

Boy, you anti-gold trolls are really out in force again; it feels like 2010 all over again here on ZH.

You are either a liar or full of shit --- which is it?

Wed, 04/24/2013 - 16:53 | 3494531 Troll Magnet
Troll Magnet's picture


I'm not arguing that they're not debasing our currency because they are.  And "hyper"inflation might be right arond the corner.  But right now, you're basically fighting the Fed.  And the key to winning in this environment is to be opportunistic in your buying & selling instead of just being ALL BULLISH ALL THE TIME on gold and silver.  

Thu, 04/25/2013 - 01:32 | 3496327 Pinto Currency
Pinto Currency's picture




Good luck trying to time the market on that one.

Gold has been displaced from a 5,000 year history as money by a motley crew who have convinced everyone that you can create money from nothing negating the need for work and savings to develop capital.

It is a hilarious concept that wealth can be created by a group of central planners - nevermind the fact that they work for an institution owned by the major banks who profit from bubbles.  Ridiculous.

Gold will reassert itself with a bang and not a wimper leaving the paper bugs who are off-side speechless (and moneyless).

Wed, 04/24/2013 - 18:59 | 3495088 JLee2027
JLee2027's picture

Besides hyperinflation as the end - a domino collapse due to staggering unpayable debts is highly probable. Or an electronic bank run like we saw in 2008. But the dollar is done, we just don't know the means of execution.

Wed, 04/24/2013 - 23:22 | 3495917 StychoKiller
Wed, 04/24/2013 - 16:41 | 3494477 Troll Magnet
Troll Magnet's picture

There's no such thing as a credible source on anything related to gold and silver.  People are either talking their books, being a mouthpiece for the establishment or just smoking a whole lotta hopium.  You just gotta do your own research, go with your instincts and hope for the best.  Personally, I bought gold and silver all the way up to $1,800/$42.  I'm still waaaaaaay up on some of my PM purchases and underwater on others but that happens in the world of investing.  Get over it and go long physical or cut your losses and STFU.  And don't ever listen to a used car salesman like "The Doc."  

I mean, shit, I think it's funny that "Tyler" is making fun of those who predicted AAPL to go to $1,000 but he/she's MUM on those who were calling gold to go to $5,000-$10,000 and silver to $500.  

Do your own research and stick to your convictions.  

Wed, 04/24/2013 - 23:25 | 3495922 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

$16+Trillion reasons, and NO END in sight.  Do the math, exponential functions ALWAYS approach infinity over time.  "Ain't but one way out babe..."

Wed, 04/24/2013 - 17:48 | 3494743 rabbitusvomitus
rabbitusvomitus's picture

Now that Is some funny shit!

Wed, 04/24/2013 - 15:43 | 3494194 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Sooooo, name, time, amount?

Wed, 04/24/2013 - 15:55 | 3494258 Levadiakos
Levadiakos's picture

Mr $50 silver and buying more

Wed, 04/24/2013 - 16:08 | 3494323 akak
akak's picture

I smell the taint of a Trav, and it ain't a good smell.

Wed, 04/24/2013 - 17:35 | 3494674 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Please stop comparing Gold to Apple stock. Unless Apple stock has some correlation to actual apples that I am not aware of.


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