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US Business Cycle Index Plunges Most In 22 Months
While broad US macro-economic data has been sliding rapidly of late - now at equivalently bad levels as we saw in August of last year's 'swoon', we have often seen 'survey-based' data provide some fillip to the hard-data deterioration. Hope and faith that recovery is just around the corner provides just enough to hang new all-time high stock prices on. But... in the last two weeks, the surprises from US business cycle and survey-based indicators have plunged. In fact they have dropped at a pace only matched by 2011's Q2 slump that required global coordinated central bank intervention to save it. Perhaps even more interesting from the chart below, is the lower highs being made in these indicators of the business cycle - which confirm the fading reality of any spillover-effect from QE.
Biggest two-week slump in 22 months and lower highs over the past three years of cycles...
Bloomberg ECO US Surveys & Business Cycle Indicators Surprise Index
The Bloomberg ECO Surprise Index (ESI) shows the degree to which economic analysts under- or over-estimate the trends in the business cycle. The surprise element is defined as the percentage (or percentage point) difference between analyst forecasts and the published value of economic data releases.
Charts: Bloomberg
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Equities could care less. The bots don't read these releases.
Ignored.
It's only a matter of time before they're going to be forced to care.
Why? from my post below; 85 billion per month, indefinitely, soon to be 140 billion per month.... hedge accordingly. with a permanent bid on treasuries and "no cost" for capital creation (or mal-investment and mis-allocation - TBTF, snicker snicker) we can print up prosperity forever.
The effectiveness of the liquidity injections ain't what it used to be. It can't go on forever at this rate. At some point - maybe years from now - the volume of the pumping will be such that they're unable to contain the side effects.
Mo' POMO mo' problems.
Ha! Ain't that the truth.
+1
It ain't the bots that are buyers, its The Bernake. And like Pavlov he's training the masses to respond to the bell. Wait till the food is taken away, the bell will ring and the sheeple will act as trained.
Good sheeple, now chain yourselves with more debt....
The wage-slaves are stirring...
MAN!!!!!!!!! I'm tired of the endless, fucking climb of the market!!!!! Only so much of my face getting ripped off on a daily basis that I can tolerate.
Ok.....I'm better now.........
Short the Bounce 04-23-2013
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dFy_vbbQ93g
The effectiveness of the liquidity injections ain't what it used to be. It can't go on forever at this rate. At some point - maybe years from now - the volume of the pumping will be such that they're unable to contain the side effects.
I'm not so sure anymore. I think the fact that we have NOT had hyperinflation yet is a sign of just how deep and wide the black hole of deflation is. I think they could do this for another 10 years. Hasn't forced the Japanese yet into running down the street with wheelbarrows full of yen.
But the end is coming. And it will be just that much worse when it does finally arrive. The final black swan will be when the collective American herd finally wakes up and realizes the dream is dead, that our politicians are the mushrooms that grow from the shit that we have become, and that our monetary situation is hopeless.....that perpetual growth on a finite planet is a VERY bad utopian dream.
Ha, ha. The American (and world) sheeple will never 'wake-up'. I used to feel this way, too, but the 'conditioning' is too deep. It will be WAR between nations that finally puts this farce to an end....
It may be even higher than $140 billion/month of printed money. Close to $200 billion/month or more eventually.
The doves, Evans, Dudley and Yellen want more and more printed money tyo flood the market. This will push stocks to hyper levels? Possibly.
Equities have been going straight up without much of a pause. We all know why, infinite QE.
It has to increase with an increase in spending as well. The Fed will need to step up and enable more debt.
I think anyone who believes it's 'indefinitely' or '4EVA' will get a wakeup call soon.
You are an optimist then. Ending means hard default for the U.S., as oppsed to the soft default America will go through for the next 30 years.
In this program controlled market it only serves to rally equities higher. More and more QE money being pumped ino stocks.
@ yogi
That was just what I was thinking reading the article.
If things are going so badly (which seems to be the real truth), then why is the stock market holding up so well? QE, of course would explain part of it, but... Buying stocks is for optimists.
Robots don't pay rent, they don't have loans, and they don't have families.
Why is this so hard?
STOP TRADING. THERE IS NO MARKET.
Get in your car and find some farmland for sale. You know perfectly well 10 years from now you will thank God you did.
Don't think our 'leaders' have any idea what they're creating.
They're gonna need a bigger boat.
I am 74 with a bad heart, i don,t have ten years. Thats the good news because i will not have to live through the hell baked into this mess.
TRANSITORY
Let's post this on Twitter for cryin' out loud!
Need to get it out on Twitter
Debbie does dallas comes to mind watching that chart. Up, down, up, down. Porno on the internet is showing up everywhere.
My bedroom doesn't resemble that at all. 19 years invested....
Rent, don't buy.
Who needs reality we have free money ! Nothing ever bad comes from free money !!!! <Sarc off>
Looks like a fortune teller accuracy meter.
They're never right anyway.
This time is different, 85 billion per month, indefinitely, soon to be 140 billion per month.... hedge accordingly.
I'd say no, LoPdood. I'd say before 140B/mo, the pressure will ramp up to 1) end the Sequester's 56B cut and 2) cease any more talk of 1:1 dollar spending reduction per dollar of debt ceiling increase come Sept.
I'd say this mostly because Tyler is onto the right concept re: diminishing QE returns. The Sequester and fiscal stuff is looking far more powerful than QE.
That's not my downvote.
The sequester isn't even a single month's worth of QE. How's that "more powerful".
algos read headlines.
Tyler,
Are you trying to tell us that the omniscient Fed's QE policies are having less and less of an effect?
Sacrilege!!!
Ever increasing QE does less over time. It just enriches a few.
The Wells Fargo advisors are really on the pump and hopium schtick today, phew!
Scott somebody and the Wells Fargo Head Economist Anikha Kahn talking green shoots, 2% growth, all is fine, blah-blah "People have to buy in to stocks" yada-yada, then the commercials for Wells Fargo advisors, then back to the "This market is just going up, buy stawks!" pumping.
Oh sure they're desperate for someone to come in and buy the pump off their hands....but it's never going to happen.
Oh dear! Looks like it's time for the ECB to cut rates. MOAR Liquidity will FIX it!
Let's save the world!
It's Messianic Finance incarnate.
Exactly why the market is strongly bid today and stops any and all selling attempts. I would guess they are waiting for hte last 30 min to jam it throught 1585 area to go for 1600 by end of week.
There is no point even looking at this data any longer. The market IS NOT a barometer of anything anymore. It does not price risk. It does not price earnings. It does not price GDP. It does not price economic cycles. That occurs in individual names (kind of) but overall any and all data is meaningless for the overall market. There is always a bid in the market, the bias is always up most days.
Heck it does not even follow technicals anymore for the most part except that any and all patterns are bullish. Which means that there are no patterns. They set up to look short then do the opposite. The algos use that against anyone stupid enough to try to trade the market technically (except all long all the time). With the exception of a few specific names most stuff is net aggressive buy mode most of the time. Those that do diverge from this are impossible to tell except in hindsight. They sell 10 stocks down 1, 9 recover and go higher and 1 sells another 3.
When did you wake up?
There is no market. There is only HFT engines. And you don't have one.
Stop trading. Buy farmland. Generate calories, the only money there is.
Data? Business cycle? Not important. I need to order a pizza.
For the week ending April 13, 2013 on the AAR (Association of American Railroads) web site, the car loadings of "Other" (Read scrap and waste) are down 11.7% compared to the same week from 2012, and down 2.8% cumulative from 2012.
For Canada, it is much worse, being down 8.5% to the same week in 2012, and down 34.6% cumulative from 2012.
In general, less scrap and waste = less activity.
https://www.aar.org/newsandevents/Freight-Rail-Traffic/Documents/2013-04...
However, my observation for the last few months are that down is up, up is up, and sideways is up, so, everything is looking up.
But the trainloads of QE continue. They will add more. It's predictable. It doesn't matter if it works, they claim it's working.
Hopium is all they have left. The pumpers are out in full force. The reality does not matter until it does
What would the following hacked Hilsenrath tweet do to the market:
Breaking: Fed Chairman to begin withdrawal of liquidity at $85 billion per month. #lookoutbelow
Prepare to be amazed!
US Business Cycle plunges?
It just doesn't matter.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e9mf3Bypyk8
if bubi starts fry ability god will start superfry
it has been demonstrated even against the medic
or so he says lol
smartphones in space
that'S out some movie lol
LOL convoy has arrived oh shits lol
oh noes we have business cycle time lol
http://news.slashdot.org/story/13/04/22/2120256/building-sumo-robots-wit...
bubi's plan for zohar lol
go golem hahahahahaha LOL
mine was also doable lol
really it was oldschool but in those cases
bravery counts for more
but if thani is run by Falselight what happens next LOL
Falselight might be stoned but this only shows bubi's
handwriting
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=854E56v9Y08
moonboy gonna moonboy
some class right here lol
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sTNHH2FbEVs
but in case you noticed it is NOT writing
hehe bubi's place where every strategic relocation goes wrong LOL
alas no agarthan superwarriors but what do i know LOL
oh noes direct assault
hm runic supersoldiers yes or no
you know...zohar might go samarian...might
lolwut moon got shot down ?
something fried in moonville i believe
so krugman has book called the wonders
of ukraine on the coffee table interesting
LOL
in another world ethiopia would start their
surprise assault
snow
someone is screaming at your place
qoq already run low on Falselights banzai infantry
obvious is obvious
aw man not china again
several assaults wow forced conversion lol
well mo switching that fast hm
but show will begin
one fund boston lol
you know i would never dream of throwin jupiter or mars
into my orbit for real
its the smartphone in space LOL
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZAZhtT-dUyo
show some class bubi
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UBC85Uui8BU
zohar says that's his work nice LOL
superfry will start soon zohar says
there is rapture mini rapture and superrapture
obvious what bubi is doing
mini rapture
oh bubi concede now or some women wont have their periods ever again
there is noscript for bubi from this point lol
uiiuuuuuuuui bannzauber klasse 1
eric cartmann 1 bubi 0
oh wait they are starting strategic relocation now
zohar says fuck you very much
'housing recovery' from Gaza to Missouri i guess
mazon the house they need LOL
operation "platform"
kenneth feindberg
what else LOL
operation "platform"
feindberg cometh lol
for now but your children will
anyway if i had killed zohar somehow it would have created evil super islam lol
zohar tamerlan bubi ?
what happens to falselight
lol everyone trying to jump ship before ukraine happens
the studio
new mali
I nearly lost it today. I was watching Comedy Central, perfect place for a GE commercial, and was astounded.
Hugo Weaving in Agent Smith attire speaking the virtues of the new GE connected medical computer system.
Showing people entering into MRI machines with Agent Smith on the screen speaking of connected data transfer.
The commercial ends with Agent Smith holding two lolipops asking a child, "Red pill or blue pill".
So the goal is The Matrix after all. I don't know who the audience for that commercial was? Anyone who actually understands the Matrix reference would be sitting there going WTF!!!!
ita est
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WXvi0LNihfo
I think it's forming a "Head in Crevasse Formation"
It didn't save it, it's dead. The QE shocks simply cause enough market movement to fool the chattering classes. Once rigor mortis sets in, then it's Dead Parrot sketch time for this economy.
So what, the stock market is high ... so there's no recession!
define 'depression'... now, paint a mosaic of the UK in the throes of a triple dip-- and tell me it's naught a herniated conjunction that overshadows the land of 'oz'?
riddle me this...
http://www.worldometers.info/world-population http://www.usdebtclock.org/ http://www.census.gov/popclock/
as china methodically buys gold...
and, in the land of the free... the hegemonic curse reigns supreme...
a perfect storm, thrice brewing... a paralogism 'vandal's`esque'...
where ones own mea`culpa be catapulted upon the precipice of deaf nadir...
alas, all with but a soothing nightcap of the finest hemlock...
to hasten your treacherous malfeasance and scullduggery where even the rubicon-styx finds no solace in your transport...
but, as always... hades does not descriminate and will ceremoniously celebrate shylocks demise as an honorary guest... squatting pronely at the right hand of belial's left...
a fitting hornish`fin... to a jeroboam's satyr...
riddle me that...
?! ` ?! ` !?
It's the sequestration's fault, of course.