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AMZN In Six Easy Charts

Tyler Durden's picture




 

All one can say is: "LOL"


Operating Profit and Net Income for Three Months Ended March 31, 2010-2013:


 

Amazon Free Cash Flow (Operating profits less CapEx):

 

Amazon Operating Margin %

 

Amazon LTM Operating Margin %

 

Amazon LTM Net Income %

 

Amazon Revenue growth (blue line) and number of total employees (red line)

Finally, the company's operating profit outlook for Q2: ($340)MM to $10MM. Surely all of the above explains why the stock is experiencing its latest massive short squeeze after hours and why it now proudly trades at a forward P/E multiple of N/M.

(thank you DE Shaw algos).

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Thu, 04/25/2013 - 16:39 | 3499534 JeremyWS
JeremyWS's picture

AMZN : most overvalued decent company in history.

Thu, 04/25/2013 - 16:43 | 3499548 Canadian Dirtlump
Canadian Dirtlump's picture

Jim Fukkin Cramer says don't get in their way.. sadly some day amazon shareholders will end up moving into Jim's old residence.. Their cars.. BWAHAHAHA

Thu, 04/25/2013 - 16:51 | 3499590 eclectic syncretist
eclectic syncretist's picture

AMZN has been overvalued for over a decade.  Bezos and Ringo Starr are the luckiest guys on the planet.

Thu, 04/25/2013 - 16:54 | 3499610 malikai
malikai's picture

Sure, now's a good time for a squeeze. Anytime, really.

Thu, 04/25/2013 - 17:11 | 3499673 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Don't bet on it. They'll be nationalized as the official government online distribution chain for junk long before they'll be allowed to go under.

Fascist choke-holds do not require profits in order to succeed. They merely need an over indebted population to weak to keep a market honest. If AMZN needs more money, you can be sure Benron will print it for them.

Thu, 04/25/2013 - 17:33 | 3499754 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

The 11th commandment:

    Thou shalt not make fun of the Bezos.

       He's done a fine job... of selling common stock to idiot yuppies.

Thu, 04/25/2013 - 18:27 | 3500029 Seer
Seer's picture

Sad to say, but at least Amazon does something, unlike FB.  But... this has been the trend, hasn't it? a slow fall from manufacturing stuff (no longer able to pump up volumes due to collapse in growth/wages) to make-believe shit...

Thu, 04/25/2013 - 18:49 | 3500128 Fredo Corleone
Fredo Corleone's picture

Now, apply the projected fiscal drag of the implementation of the "Marketplace Fairness Act" upon forward estimates.

Fairwell and adieu...

Thu, 04/25/2013 - 19:11 | 3500217 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

Pole axed. 

Thu, 04/25/2013 - 19:27 | 3500269 James_Cole
James_Cole's picture

He's done a fine job... of selling common stock to idiot yuppies.

With a p/e of 3151 he's done a damn good job of selling it. Wouldn't call the people buying it 'idiots' either. 

There are 'fundamentals' and then there are NFLX & AMZN.

Thu, 04/25/2013 - 19:11 | 3500177 smlbizman
smlbizman's picture

they will be the biggest sales tax collector in the world.....who ya gonna love...

and the new fair tax act will just sit about 1 foot the left of a value added tax, and with a name like that how can 1 complain...

Thu, 04/25/2013 - 17:28 | 3499722 ToNYC
ToNYC's picture

Lots of guys get lucky, the smart ones keep remembering to not screw it up by thinking they had a whole lot to do with it.

Thu, 04/25/2013 - 19:00 | 3500173 Jay Gould Esq.
Jay Gould Esq.'s picture

Some insight into billionaire Bezos' political bent:

http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/07/27/amazons-founder-pledges-2-...

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 00:35 | 3501302 MoneyMonkey
MoneyMonkey's picture

I can't believe you're forgetting Amazon giving gift cards for the recent gun buy back in Seattle! Seriously, look it up..

Thu, 04/25/2013 - 16:57 | 3499620 Chaffinch
Chaffinch's picture

But surely it's not all been negative news for Amazon during the last few years. We all know now what a fantastic company Amazon is to work for, and they treat their warehouse staff like real human beings, not just paying them high wages, but giving them other benefits as well.

Oh, wait, maybe I'm thinking of a different company...

Thu, 04/25/2013 - 17:17 | 3499700 adr
adr's picture

I know a few senior executives at Amazon. Dumbest people I have ever met. One of my best friends in college went to work for Amazon in 2003 in accounting. He lasted six months before he ran out of the building.

He was one of those poor guys with ethics.

Thu, 04/25/2013 - 19:01 | 3500181 smlbizman
smlbizman's picture

their warehouse workers are rumbas....

Thu, 04/25/2013 - 17:23 | 3499721 Abi Normal
Abi Normal's picture

And Soros is investing in JCPenny, I think he has finally snapped!

Thu, 04/25/2013 - 17:56 | 3499878 scatterbrains
scatterbrains's picture

If that true than he's been tipped off that postal shipping rates are about to double and a federal online sales tax is about to slap the shit out of AMZN until it's cheaper to just drive to the mall.

Thu, 04/25/2013 - 17:29 | 3499734 BlueStreet
BlueStreet's picture

Bring back EBITDA. 

Thu, 04/25/2013 - 18:29 | 3500035 Groundhog Day
Groundhog Day's picture

Here's an experience i had on AMZN.  I once sold an extra "like new" computer on Amazon for 40% less then all other sellers of the same product just so i can get rid of one more thing out of my house (i'm not a professional seller by any means).  I delivered it and got paid on it.  After a few weeks the buyer decided she didn't get what she paid for and sent a letter complaining about it.  I did not receive any instructions to take any further actions.  15-20 days later i see a charge on my amex for the amount i had received.  I figured the buyer asked for a refund and amzn obliged.  No problem.  Here's the thing, since I didn't respond to the buyer's orginal email (Since it didn;t state it anywhere in the email) she is not obligated to return my computer.  So a kept my computer for free and AMZN did not assist me at all in trying to retieve what was mine.  It was a 400 mistake on my part, but it will cost them tens of thousnads in future business from me.  I now have no problem paying for things slightly higher on other websites

Thu, 04/25/2013 - 20:41 | 3500606 Oleander
Oleander's picture

I ordered an item last night and it arrived today. Less than 24 hrs for delivery and we use Prime with free shipping. How can they make $$? 

Thu, 04/25/2013 - 21:13 | 3500712 monoloco
monoloco's picture

I bought a $400 camera lens through Amazon, it was delivered without the hood, Amazon refunded $165, the retail value of the hood was $59, so they screwed their vendor for $106.

Thu, 04/25/2013 - 20:48 | 3500627 NoClueSneaker
NoClueSneaker's picture

No fuckin' chance . The most overvalued undecent company ist fuckin' JP Morgue .

Thu, 04/25/2013 - 16:41 | 3499542 gjp
gjp's picture

But Bezos said we should focus on free cash flow, not earnings.  Oh wait, FCF sucks too?  Oh, well, Ben's got our backs!

Thu, 04/25/2013 - 16:49 | 3499574 Cdad
Cdad's picture

The criminal syndicate known as Wall Street pays no attention to fundamentals anymore.  It's all just a leveraged bubble riding game, courtesy of our central bank

Thank you, Mr. Bernanke, for this wasteland you have made for us.

Thu, 04/25/2013 - 19:43 | 3500345 spastic_colon
spastic_colon's picture

just like AAPL on earnings day, all of the volatility and money will be made after market and before open tomorrow, when AMZN will then again trade flat.

Thu, 04/25/2013 - 16:53 | 3499598 vortmax
vortmax's picture

Perhaps Jeff should spend more time in the boardroom instead of occupying himself with plucking dead rocket engines out of the Atlantic...

Thu, 04/25/2013 - 16:58 | 3499624 Pure Evil
Pure Evil's picture

I think they should reinterpret the last graph as when the amount of money accumulated goes up, the amount of comparable brain power goes down.

plucking dead rocket engines out of the Atlantic.........indeed.

Thu, 04/25/2013 - 16:42 | 3499544 ziggy59
ziggy59's picture

Taxing internet shopping should help....

NOT!

Thu, 04/25/2013 - 17:14 | 3499686 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

well... I pay taxes on Ebay already. 7% on everything I buy.

Thu, 04/25/2013 - 18:01 | 3499905 koaj
koaj's picture

it should only be in the state you reside if you buy from a merchant in that state..unless you live in Kalifornistan

Thu, 04/25/2013 - 16:44 | 3499549 RobD
RobD's picture

Amazon needs to sell ammo.

Thu, 04/25/2013 - 16:46 | 3499565 Unprepared
Unprepared's picture

... and sinkable boats... and pressure cookers

Thu, 04/25/2013 - 16:48 | 3499579 RobD
RobD's picture

The do sell pressure cookers, bought one a few years back from them for canning. Ah, really we do use it for canning.

Thu, 04/25/2013 - 17:00 | 3499627 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

I'm pretty happy that I bought my cookers at the thrift shop/garage sales.

Thu, 04/25/2013 - 19:58 | 3500420 Tijuana Donkey Show
Tijuana Donkey Show's picture

Make sure you test or replace the gauges, if they get out of calibration, you can end up with a bad case of food poisoning or death. I suggest getting new gauges if you don't know the history. Also look at Tattler reusable lids, they are worth their weight in gold.

Thu, 04/25/2013 - 17:07 | 3499656 catacl1sm
catacl1sm's picture

I've been meaning to get a pressure cooker for canning for some time. I will likely buy it from Amazon, like most things that I purchase.

Thu, 04/25/2013 - 17:12 | 3499681 adr
adr's picture

Just make sure you buy some fireworks, BBs, batteries, and a pre paid unlocked cell phone at the same time too.

Thu, 04/25/2013 - 18:15 | 3499966 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

If you see an Amazon ad on ZH click on it and do your month's shopping, Tyler will get a hefty cut. A good cause.

Thu, 04/25/2013 - 17:14 | 3499685 funthea
funthea's picture

Did you register that pressure cooker? Especially if it is high capacity?

Thu, 04/25/2013 - 17:00 | 3499634 andrewp111
andrewp111's picture

If they can get any.

Thu, 04/25/2013 - 16:44 | 3499550 InconvenientCou...
InconvenientCounterParty's picture

Internet tax

Thu, 04/25/2013 - 16:49 | 3499583 Bastiat
Bastiat's picture

They've been charging CA sales tax for the past year or so--may explain some of the loss.  Making that universal will cause real pain.

Thu, 04/25/2013 - 17:39 | 3499552 syntaxterror
syntaxterror's picture

I'm a buyer as soon as their margins hit 0.10% and the Forward PE is 20,000 and the PEG ratio is 30.

Thu, 04/25/2013 - 16:45 | 3499554 Cursive
Cursive's picture

Looking at Amazon's stock vs. operations, it's easy to see how Henry Blodget (bought and paid for by Jeff Bezos) can say Paul Krugman has won.

Thu, 04/25/2013 - 16:46 | 3499559 lizzy36
lizzy36's picture

BTFD

Cheap on a mutiple basis.

Bezos is a genius!!!! Invested his couch change in Business Insider.

Don't forget bitchez......BTMFD.

Thu, 04/25/2013 - 17:07 | 3499660 obejoyful
obejoyful's picture

who ties your shoes in the morning. 

Thu, 04/25/2013 - 17:53 | 3499869 knukles
knukles's picture

Maxine Waters

Thu, 04/25/2013 - 16:46 | 3499560 PontifexMaximus
PontifexMaximus's picture

Who cares? You just have to believe in fairy tales, as long as a bunch of HF need the stock to move north....algos do the dirty work

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