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Commodities Pop; Dow Late-Day Drop; FX Market Slop

Tyler Durden's picture




 

The S&P cash got within a point or two of its closing high but between FSOC concerns about US financial stability, German court concerns over Draghi's OMT and ESM, and a large (likely CBOE-shutdown-inspired) imbalance into the close, stocks tumbled off those highs with the Dow almost back to unchanged before a small ramp into the close. While equities were on most media headlines, today was 'epic' for commodities. The biggest jumps in gold, silver, and oil prices in between five and nine months despite significant USD strength in the US day session. JPY carry was in charge early (and late as we sold off) with EUR ran the show in the middle of the day. With CBOE down for much of the morning, once it reopened it traded down with stocks up but gradually leaked higher all afternoon to end the day very slightly green. Treasuries rallied into the close to end unchanged. Another low volume day that saw the Dow unable to close above pre-Boston levels. So stocks mixed (Russell +0.6%, TRAN unch), VIX unch, Treasuries unch, EURUSD and JPYUSD unch, Oil/Copper/Gold/Silver up 2.5 to 5%!

Commodities were in charge today... and it wasn't growth...

 

fopr some context on commodities recently...

  • Biggest 8-day jump in gold in 21 months
  • Biggest 2-day jump in silver in 15 months
  • Biggest 2-day jump in WTI in 8 months
  • Biggest 2-day jump in Copper in 7 months

 

as equities were ruled by European flows... JPY-driven, and then FSOC and German news...

 

FX markets did slop around with Cable being the big move as it avoided a triple dip recession

 

S&P 500 futures had relatively low volume once again and closed perfectly at VWAP on a slight rise in average trade size... The Dow seems to be having an issue closing above the Boston news level...

 

Is the short-squeeze running out of gas?

 

Alternatively, US equity market were well ahead of other risk assets in general all day. As Capital Context's CONTEXT model shows (a proxy for broad risk-asset behavior), the late-day equity plunge was in fact more a reversion to reality...

 

 

Charts: Bloomberg and Capital Context

Congratulations to Capital Context's Dave Klein for winning the NAAIM's Wagner Prize for active portfolio management. He will be presenting the winning strategy on Monday April 29th at NAAIM's 'Uncommon Knowledge' conference in Denver.

 

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Thu, 04/25/2013 - 16:30 | 3499491 JeremyWS
JeremyWS's picture

next up the US GDP which will surely represent a true value of how the US economy is doing, market to be at least 2% surely? /sarc

Thu, 04/25/2013 - 16:46 | 3499567 flacon
flacon's picture

APMEX is now stocked on American Silver Eagles. Here's the catch... you have to pay $7 OVER SPOT!

http://www.apmex.com/Product/72459/2013_1_oz_Silver_American_Eagle.aspx

Thu, 04/25/2013 - 16:52 | 3499601 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

 

 

Decoupling pairs nicely with an '08 meritage, IMHO.

Thu, 04/25/2013 - 17:26 | 3499726 fourchan
fourchan's picture

 

 

my silver chart, period(all human history)

---------------------------------------- <--

and my gold

---------------------------------------- <--

funny how they track together and how relaxing it is to watch their fluctuations.

Thu, 04/25/2013 - 17:25 | 3499729 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Looks like ten bucks over for most, 11 actually if I see it right.

Thu, 04/25/2013 - 17:27 | 3499732 Panafrican Funk...
Panafrican Funktron Robot's picture

Yeah, even Gainesville is at 5 over spot.  They will still probably sell out fast.  

Thu, 04/25/2013 - 18:34 | 3500057 Alea Iactaest
Alea Iactaest's picture

Tulving has had ASE's since last night at $4.99. Of course you need to buy 500 but that's chump change these days, right?

Thu, 04/25/2013 - 17:40 | 3499796 Silver Bug
Silver Bug's picture

Gold to new all time highs by year end? I think so.

 

http://marcfabersblog.blogspot.ca/

Thu, 04/25/2013 - 18:41 | 3500071 Alea Iactaest
Alea Iactaest's picture

The "Fed Friends" list calls for another smash, didn't you get the memo? Glodman made the call to short before the smash, they want to build credibility. Now they say close shorts. Do you believe them?

 

PS - I miss calling them "Glodman", so much more giggle-inducing than "Squid". Then again, not so much to giggle about.

Thu, 04/25/2013 - 16:26 | 3499493 IridiumRebel
IridiumRebel's picture

My stack is unchanged but more valuable......we good.

Thu, 04/25/2013 - 16:30 | 3499498 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

I was sure that options expiration would push PM prices down a little.

No such luck. 

Must be hellacious demand for physical for the Gold price to go from $1,325 to $1,465 in ten days.

Thu, 04/25/2013 - 16:53 | 3499603 GCT
GCT's picture

EB although I do not listen to BTFD, I bought alot of physical at 1325.  Of course I still have alot I bought at 250.  One thing about gold you do not lose any money if you do not sell it.  Physical all the way!!!!

Jeweler's gold is still easy to come by!

Thu, 04/25/2013 - 17:31 | 3499738 Panafrican Funk...
Panafrican Funktron Robot's picture

Yeah, I'm also not normally a BTFD'er, but my monthly buy program went to "throw all remaining paper at phys" on that dip.  

Thu, 04/25/2013 - 16:35 | 3499517 The Ram
The Ram's picture

Hey, do you think PM prices will start reflecting reality?  Nah, that would be too much to ask....for now, anyway.

Thu, 04/25/2013 - 16:36 | 3499521 gjp
gjp's picture

AMZN - growth down below 20%, likely to drop further.  Even if they got to 5% margins on $75b, would be $4b earnings and carry a 30 multiple with growth slowing.  And they're never going to get margins anywhere near that.

But fundamentals don't matter, Ben owns all this stock either directly or indirectly.

Thu, 04/25/2013 - 16:45 | 3499547 adr
adr's picture

I'm going to start a company called Bestzonredflixopotlegreenwingoogleroasterzone.

The algos will bid me to $2 Trillion in market cap overnight.

Thu, 04/25/2013 - 16:39 | 3499528 bonzo112358
bonzo112358's picture

The problem with all these green days is that you squeeze out all the shorts who are the only buyers on the way down.  The only two left in the pits will be Louis and Billy Ray but they can only buy back so much.

http://www.popmodal.com/video/1277/Trading-Places-Final-Exchange-Scene-amp-Explanation

Thu, 04/25/2013 - 16:57 | 3499622 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

 

 

If Comex is as dried up as it's rumoured, then the boyz may have little choice but to lay off for a bit and let the price levitate to try to temper the physical buying.  Really not sure, though.  But it seems they are in a shortening and increasingly viscious cycle.

Thu, 04/25/2013 - 16:41 | 3499537 Ancona
Ancona's picture

since tomorrow is expiration for the metals, I suspect the pop today was to lure in some suckers for the morning smash. Of course, that's if history is to be our guide.

Thu, 04/25/2013 - 16:55 | 3499614 EL INDIO
EL INDIO's picture

Or maybe to f**k the shorts.
The MoFos make money on the way down and on the way up.

Thu, 04/25/2013 - 16:48 | 3499575 adr
adr's picture

I'm going to make a new rear window sticker of a guy bending over spreading his ass wide. The bubble caption will be "GO AHEAD BEN!!!"

Any orders?

Thu, 04/25/2013 - 17:11 | 3499671 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

How about a massive U.S GDP beat thanks to that half a trillion dollars they just added out of thin air as the spark for a massive gold smackdown tomorrow. Followed by a parade of economist chickenheads running around all day talking about the recovery, easing down the QE and the death of gold?

Thu, 04/25/2013 - 17:14 | 3499693 Longtermnotreally
Longtermnotreally's picture

Very little reporting on the gold runs in the controlled press, obviously, douchbags 

Thu, 04/25/2013 - 17:19 | 3499708 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

 

 

The 'gold runs' is exactly what Ben deposited in his terlet today.

Thu, 04/25/2013 - 17:17 | 3499698 polo007
polo007's picture

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/04/25/business/janet-l-yellen-possible-fed-successor-has-admirers-and-foes.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0

WASHINGTON — In July 1996, the Federal Reserve broke the metronomic routine of its closed-door policy-making meetings to hold an unusual debate. The Fed’s powerful chairman, Alan Greenspan, saw a chance for the first time in decades to drive annual inflation all the way down to zero, achieving the price stability he had long regarded as the central bank’s primary mission.

But Janet L. Yellen, then a relatively new and little-known Fed governor, talked Mr. Greenspan to a standstill that day, arguing that a little inflation was a good thing. She marshaled academic research that showed it would reduce the depth and frequency of recessions, articulating a view that has prevailed at the Fed. And as the Fed’s vice chairwoman since 2010, Ms. Yellen has played a leading role in cementing the central bank’s commitment to keep prices rising about 2 percent each year.

Ms. Yellen is now widely viewed as a logical candidate to succeed the current Fed chairman, Ben S. Bernanke, when his term ends in January 2014. She has worked closely with him in shaping and building support for the Fed’s campaign to stimulate the economy and bring down unemployment.

But some of Ms. Yellen’s critics remain wary. They worry that she would not be sufficiently concerned about the possibility that inflation will accelerate as the economic recovery gains strength. If nominated, she could face opposition from Senate Republicans who have repeatedly expressed concern that the Fed’s campaign would destabilize financial markets and make controlling the pace of inflation more difficult.

“I think people read Janet Yellen’s speeches as saying that she puts a higher weight on joblessness compared to inflation” than the typical member of the Fed’s policy-making committee, said Vincent Reinhart, formerly the head of the Fed’s monetary policy staff and now the chief United States economist at Morgan Stanley. “And that includes Ben Bernanke.”

He added, however, that her nomination would be unlikely to shake financial markets because she already exercises considerable influence, so any shift in policy would most likely be modest.

Thu, 04/25/2013 - 17:34 | 3499758 Panafrican Funk...
Panafrican Funktron Robot's picture

Yellen's being set up as the "fall guy".  Or gal in this instance.  Such is the price for the first female in the role.  

Thu, 04/25/2013 - 18:32 | 3500045 Alea Iactaest
Alea Iactaest's picture

Create a table that compounds at 2% for each period (x * 1.02). Go ahead, I can wait. You will double, or halve, the first time in 36 years. The second time to double (now 4x or 1/4) almost takes another 36 years. By 106 years, another double (8x or 1/8). Ponzi-nomics, baby!

2% and you can kiss my ass. The rule of 72. Learn it, live it, love it.

Thu, 04/25/2013 - 18:06 | 3499929 MetalFillBoy
MetalFillBoy's picture

Huge negative money flow for the day (look at DJ U.S. TSM )

http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3022-mfsctrscan-moneyflow-20130425.html?mod=mdc_pastcalendar

Look at the selling on strength list.  (Hint: SPY)

http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3022-mflppg-moneyflow-20130425.html?mod=mdc_pastcalendar

 

Elephants can not move around without leaving foot prints . . . .  

MFB

Thu, 04/25/2013 - 18:38 | 3500089 Alea Iactaest
Alea Iactaest's picture

Looked at it earlier. SPY just the usual VWAP balancing. More interesting, I saw GLD on the list but not SLV. My first question: Why not?

Thu, 04/25/2013 - 18:56 | 3500157 MetalFillBoy
MetalFillBoy's picture

Good catch on GLD; I looked earlier in the day, but it was not on there.

GLD on a daily chart almost looks like it is going parabolic, so my guess would be some profit taking on GLD, but not a precursor of a reversal.  GLD was on the SOS list earlier in the week (Monday), and it had a one day pull back the next day (Tuesday).  Then it was off to the races again (yesterday and today).

 

I am not sure I have ever seen SLV on any of the WSJ money flow lists, and GLD rarely shows up itself.

 

MFB

Thu, 04/25/2013 - 23:44 | 3501198 Trampy
Trampy's picture

BoJ rate flat

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 07:18 | 3501617 samcontrol
samcontrol's picture

Stupid me, getting desperate and going all in with paper uslv three days so.

Maybe i'm not fucked.

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