Guest Post: It's A Bit Early To Declare A Winner In The Economic Debate

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Submitted by Lance Roberts of Street Talk Live,

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Thu, 04/25/2013 - 22:30 | 3500969 IridiumRebel
IridiumRebel's picture

typo: should read debase

Thu, 04/25/2013 - 22:32 | 3500976 zorba THE GREEK
zorba THE GREEK's picture

We took a wrong turn years ago and it is doubtful now that we will ever find our way back.

Thu, 04/25/2013 - 22:44 | 3500989 wee-weed up
wee-weed up's picture

There will be NO winners in today's dishonest economy!

Thu, 04/25/2013 - 23:18 | 3501113 dasein211
dasein211's picture

Ummmmmmm.... Who is holding cyprus's gold? Does Cyprus have to take delivery to deliver it to their Eurolords? Maybe they can pay in BitGold?!

Thu, 04/25/2013 - 23:24 | 3501123 knukles
knukles's picture

OK, so what's the hidden motive?
Henry the Economic Architect.
Nah...

Thu, 04/25/2013 - 23:27 | 3501146 Muppet of the U...
Muppet of the Universe's picture

HEY YOU!  Just wanted to grab someone's attention on the way down - The world's supply of gold is not going to run out in the next few months.  This is nearly impossible.  This is called dip buying, and its nearly over as prices are back at 1500ish.

Don't bother responding, i no read, > 99% of ZH posters are not originals anymore.  Just muppets who piled in at end of bull nto bear cycle.  Maybe tht change one day - Prob not.  Still ZH descent material w/ clear bias.  For thse who are smart, read on, for those who are dumb as fuck - mark video like it matters and stfu.

Do not listen to ZH - They have become charlatans.  Do not let the dealers hoodwink you, they say they have no gold b/c they want you to pay insane premiums.  Why do all of you dunces buy silver eagles when you could buy engel or matthey for < half the over spot cost?  Its all metal - stop being stupid.  In 5-10 years, and more likely 15-30 years, there will be supply issues.  But the economy won't even last that long.  Don't let dealers hoodwink you.  You woke up and learned about investment and barely scratched the surface on finance and asset prices. 

& FFS, the comex isn't going to blow up.  Look at when JPM added its gold position to the comex and when it dumped it?

That would mean JPM lost a fuckshitton of money.  Guess what its actually for the comex reserves, which reflect the price.

Now whether Comex has the stuff or not?  I can't honestly say.  But I would bet a million to one, that you and all you buddies heard comex doesnt have the gold/silver from a bullion youtuber who is prob a phys dealer.

Phys dealers wnt you to think Comex will crash so you buy phys and not paper gold.  It makes them money.  They have a financial reason to make you believe comex = crash.  Remember the banks can print money in zirp environment, they can literally buy as much phys as they want and put in the comex, there was 10 million ounces produced in us alone last year.

China goes long metals b/c china wants a hedge against a us dollar blow up.  But china has to hold dollar if china wants us to buy all their worthless shit.  Its a mutual benefit that will net profit china immensely in 5-10 years.  But right now people just buy on dps and trade paper price in futures., so they can live comfortably.  Get it?

You aren't gonna crash shit by buying phys.  They can PRINT MONEY.   GET IT?  We will have hyperinflation b4 we run out of phys. Get it?  Asset prices and bubbles are everywhere begging you to participate, get it?

Do some more learning, and look to other commodities and assets for opportunity.  The goal is to make money, not sit on a bunch of metal thinking that when the sheeple lose their shit in the fan you'll be rich.  That's fucking stupid.  Money is mostly made b/c the sheeple haven't lost their shit, and you won't make any money if they do.  I know you hate the guy, but for fucks sakes if you had gone for the money bernanke would have made you a small fortune.  & guess what?  Its qe4eva.  They may at some point actually lessen qe, or go one talking about ending it but it will never stop, and even if lessened, will likely go right back to increasing. 

Think don't panic, and then zerohedge will stop posting retarded sht designed to make muppets panic.

HEY YOU!  Just wanted to grab someone's attention on the way down - The world's supply of gold is not going to run out in the next few months.  This is nearly impossible.  This is called dip buying, and its nearly over as prices are back at 1500ish.

Do not listen to ZH - They have become charlatans.  Do not let the dealers hoodwink you, they say they have no gold b/c they want you to pay insane premiums.  Why do all of you dunces buy silver eagles when you could buy engel or matthey for < half the over spot cost?  Its all metal - stop being stupid.  In 5-10 years, and more likely 15-30 years, there will be supply issues.  But the economy won't even last that long.  Don't let dealers hoodwink you.  You woke up and learned about investment and barely scratched the surface on finance and asset prices. 

& FFS, the comex isn't going to blow up.  Look at when JPM added its gold position to the comex and when it dumped it?

That would mean JPM lost a fuckshitton of money.  Guess what its actually for the comex reserves, which reflect the price.

Now whether Comex has the stuff or not?  I can't honestly say.  But I would bet a million to one, that you and all you buddies heard comex doesnt have the gold/silver from a bullion youtuber who is prob a phys dealer.

Phys dealers wnt you to think Comex will crash so you buy phys and not paper gold.  It makes them money.  They have a financial reason to make you believe comex = crash.  Remember the banks can print money in zirp environment, they can literally buy as much phys as they want and put in the comex, there was 10 million ounces produced in us alone last year.

China goes long metals b/c china wants a hedge against a us dollar blow up.  But china has to hold dollar if china wants us to buy all their worthless shit.  Its a mutual benefit that will net profit china immensely in 5-10 years.  But right now people just buy on dps and trade paper price in futures., so they can live comfortably.  Get it?

You aren't gonna crash shit by buying phys.  They can PRINT MONEY.   GET IT?  We will have hyperinflation b4 we run out of phys. Get it?  Asset prices and bubbles are everywhere begging you to participate, get it?

Do some more learning, and look to other commodities and assets for opportunity.  The goal is to make money, not sit on a bunch of metal thinking that when the sheeple lose their shit in the fan you'll be rich.  That's fucking stupid.  Money is mostly made b/c the sheeple haven't lost their shit, and you won't make any money if they do.  I know you hate the guy, but for fucks sakes if you had gone for the money bernanke would have made you a small fortune.  & guess what?  Its qe4eva.  They may at some point actually lessen qe, or go one talking about ending it but it will never stop, and even if lessened, will likely go right back to increasing. 

Think don't panic, and then zerohedge will stop posting retarded sht designed to make muppets panic.

Thu, 04/25/2013 - 23:34 | 3501164 Muppet of the U...
Muppet of the Universe's picture

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OeLWW2o4LcI  now most of the posters here went down with the gold and silver ship just now and still think silver gooing to 5000 dollars.  Most peopple here are dumb as fuck.  Remember most poster here went long likee 1700 repeatedly and never cut losses.  I say this for like that random 1 guy in the clusterfuck of morons who wants to understand the market more.  phys is good to have position in, but minimal compared to futures potential.  everyone else, enjoy fantasy land.

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 00:11 | 3501269 Diogenes
Diogenes's picture

Thanks for the view from Muppetville. I may be dumb as fuck but not dumb enough to listen to your bullshit.

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 03:54 | 3501449 James_Cole
James_Cole's picture

now most of the posters here went down with the gold and silver ship just now and still think silver gooing to 5000 dollars.  Most peopple here are dumb as fuck.  Remember most poster here went long likee 1700 repeatedly and never cut losses.  I say this for like that random 1 guy in the clusterfuck of morons who wants to understand the market more. 

And being such a genius you're graciously hijacking threads to rant about how dumb everyone is on here ? Brilliant work. Nice to know them smart folks is usin they time wisely. 

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 04:18 | 3501470 AldousHuxley
AldousHuxley's picture

 

WEAK Economy --> Increase in GOV DEBT --> WAR to steal oil to subdue inflation --> PRINT money to erase DEBT --> Economy stronger relative to other nation states who can do war or print

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 07:25 | 3501624 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Hemp is more versatile than I ever thought...

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 14:09 | 3503244 Plausible Denia...
Plausible Deniability's picture

This guy blows my mind. I don't think he GETS IT. Gold and silver are currencies. Always have been, always will be. Hell, Solomon used both metals to pay for materials to build the temple. The fad is fiat currency. This too shall pass. The problem i have with guys like this and Buffett believers is that their premise is wrong. I'm not arguing that gold is a better "investment" than farmland or a well run profitable company. I am simply arguing that, in the future, I believe I will be able to buy more farmland and a greater stake in a profitable company with gold holdings as opposed to fiat currency. As to the Keynesian/Austrian debate, I believe both to be "correct". Keynesian economics, in an academic vacuum, presents a compelling analytic case. The problem is that the theory is made up of observations and calculations of a US centric global economy yet dedicates neither credit or calculations to account for the unprecedented backdrop of economic freedom and government constraint that served as the incubator for the US economy. So, Krugman and his ilk are making cause and reaction observations inside of an economy while failing to account for the construction of the economy. Over time, their theories erode the economic environment to the point that their theories, while previously effective and observable, no longer hold because the environment in which they are being administered has changed. This is precisely why virtually all of "their"projections have fallen woefully short. I would equate it with being a zoologist (sp?) and studying Yellowstone park. You would observe the incredible number of species and the quantity of each species that thrives in the area. You might test the soil and find high levels of ash and begin to conclude that in order to grow impressive wildlife populations the PTB should do everything possible to encourage heightened volcanic activity, maybe an Old Faithfulesque geyser or two, and all areas would be able to support such an impressive stock of wildlife. All the while, these observations have failed to take into account that Yellowstone is a federally protected wildlife reserve. Sure, the volcanic activity may have created a food rich environment that sustained the huge number of animals. However, it's nothing that a few unregulated hunting seasons couldn't correct.

Thu, 04/25/2013 - 23:38 | 3501187 Oldwood
Oldwood's picture

So you are saying that because they are printing like mad to save their asses, our only option is to btfd? Regardless of the fact that they and obviously you are more than willing to burn the whole thing to the ground for personal profit. Its just a damn shame more people aren't actually producing things for a living rather that preying on sheep that have as their only option to buy the fucking dip.

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 00:06 | 3501262 markovchainey
markovchainey's picture

This is what MDB would sound like after he suffered a massive head injury.

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 01:02 | 3501333 dumpster
dumpster's picture

muppet

 

your a certified ding bat with out a pound to pizz in .. so you make pretend gestures of a squicking mouse .. or even a pouting guy in knee deep diapers

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 10:56 | 3502354 Svendblaaskaeg
Svendblaaskaeg's picture

Goldenfreude much?

Thu, 04/25/2013 - 23:11 | 3501088 daxtonbrown
daxtonbrown's picture

Henry Blodgett, who holds the distinction of being more stupid than Krugman. If you put Blodgett, Krugman and Jim Cramer in a bag, a box of rocks would be smarter.

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 06:57 | 3501583 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

They're not stupid, they have an agenda (they may be stupid on top of that, though).  I can't buy what they say because I've lived through the 2 prior bubbles in recent history:

1.  DotCom stock valuations don't matter because of the huge growth of the internet that will transform our lives.

2.  Housing valuations don't matter because house prices only go up and nobody would ever default on their mortgage.

And now:

3.  Government deficits don't matter because the government can never default and they can spend us back to prosperity.

I'm sorry, but I'm just too old to believe in anything that starts with the premise that some big thing you know is important "doesn't matter."  If it wasn't important, why measure it in the first place?

Last open car on the Bubble Train!  All Aboard!!

 

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 08:43 | 3501802 Apocalicious
Apocalicious's picture

No, Blodget is stupid. He may not realize he's a pawn in the agenda of others. Kramer plays his role willingly, but moments of clarity highlight the congnative dissonance that accompanies his paycheck. Krugman is aware of his role, and also supremely confident in his "superior" intellect. But Blodget is a mind-numbingly idiotic dolt.

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 07:46 | 3501662 smlbizman
smlbizman's picture

i would rather see blodget, john elway, john kerry and mister ed in a stable and see which one looks more like a horse.....

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 08:50 | 3501848 Bendromeda Strain
Bendromeda Strain's picture

Drop Elway and make it a real challenge - the horse gets to face the opposite direction...

Thu, 04/25/2013 - 22:29 | 3500970 Poqit
Poqit's picture

Yeah you gotta think about the long term...now back to these super important intra-day correlations.

Thu, 04/25/2013 - 22:32 | 3500977 algol_dog
algol_dog's picture

Henry Blodget !!! That a-hole who was promoting all those nasdaq paper tigers in the late 90's. I watched him the day Facebook went public on CNBC proclaiming the stock was going to $100 if I recalll ... 

Thu, 04/25/2013 - 22:33 | 3500980 Jim B
Jim B's picture

Krugman has the intellect of a child, borrowing from your future results in a very ugly future.

Yes, the petulant child president also has a Nobel prize! LOL! 

 

Thu, 04/25/2013 - 23:37 | 3501180 GeorgeHayduke
GeorgeHayduke's picture

Politicians have borrowed from the future for decades now. However, it took off at full force once Ron Reagan's Morning in America arrived on the scene. That's when non-war borrow and spend government took on a whole new meaning. Every president since has followed his lead, with Clinton and Obama spending less than the Republicans. Here's the Forbes article showing it:

http://www.forbes.com/sites/rickungar/2012/05/24/who-is-the-smallest-gov...

Interesting how much money was spent in Bush the Lesser's 1st term in which he had a Republican Congress. As usual, the walk doesn't live up to the talk.

Yeah, I know, you conservatives and Republicans who want to blame everything on the liberals and Dems won't believe any facts that don't fit with your beliefs. but there it is anyway. Use whatever cognitive dissonance is needed to keep the facts from entering the thought process.

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 00:50 | 3501317 Oldwood
Oldwood's picture

Yes you are right. It IS all Bush's fault. We just all forgot. But just for grins, what was the average economic growth under Reagan and Bush (the lesser as you call him) terms compared to Obama's? Just wondering.

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 09:53 | 3502141 GeorgeHayduke
GeorgeHayduke's picture

Didn't say it was Bush's fault, you did. I just said the reality doesn't reflect the storyline. As for economic growth, are you implying that more government spending equals more economic growth? isn't that socialism according to most connedservatives?

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 05:59 | 3501520 Roandavid
Roandavid's picture

Had you been there or new some history regarding the Reagan administration, you would remember that every Reagan budget was "dead on arrival" as silly little democrats would not allow for any spending cuts then, as now.

Your point is fiction.

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 09:57 | 3502157 GeorgeHayduke
GeorgeHayduke's picture

Thanks for providing the cognitive dissonance I forecast. It also shows you didn't read the article as they talk about that too.

I'm not a pro-democrat liberal. I prefer looking at reality, which is something beyond the ability of most connedservatives I've ever encountered. Sure, hardcore liberals don't want to see it either, but there are so few of those that i ever run into in the real world.

Thu, 04/25/2013 - 22:48 | 3501001 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

deleted

Thu, 04/25/2013 - 23:29 | 3501143 Unique Snowflake
Unique Snowflake's picture

I agree. I wish Krudman, Bersnake, Obomba and Bloggit ALL could be deleted.

Thu, 04/25/2013 - 22:45 | 3501003 slimething
slimething's picture

Has Krugman ever had to meet a payroll? He and Obama should go into business together and see how their theories work in the real world.

Thu, 04/25/2013 - 22:49 | 3501016 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

 

 

The argument may not be over, but the result has long since been determined.  Debt loses.

A marathon is decided long before it is run; the race only reveals what has already been decided in the training regimens.

Thu, 04/25/2013 - 22:49 | 3501019 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Henry Blodget - what a fucking tool - he will say whatever makes him a buck - that is the problem - too many worms like that and not enough adults.

Fuck off Blodget!

Thu, 04/25/2013 - 22:50 | 3501021 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

"driving up the value of liquidity." capitalism hasn't been vanquished...although it is striking to see how well it's doing in this VERY non keynesian world. this is about bailing out CAPITALISM not the State based upon "the Japanese experience" where as with the USA in the Depression and Europe right now "the liquidity was of insufficient quantity and timed too late" to have the desired "effect." this did not happen to the USA as Greenspan had been removed and the "plunge protection team" put in place by 2006. "the lodestar" as it were was Bernanke...but obviously so was the idea that "we had money to burn" in the first place (deficits were low at the time, there was ample Government largesse in the form of a war, "better to be safe than sorry.") obviously no one could have imagined the depths of the collapse...but with the bulk of all those emergency programs now withdrawn save one i really don't see where the "general gist" was wrong. imagine if nothing had been done as happened in the Great Depression...or worse what Europe is now doing. i do agree what's going on now is not good. but most of these issues relate to the financing of the State and State programs...not anything fundamental with the financial system or a general breakdown in order. and if the President is about to order some type of serious engagement with Syria...i say again...be wary of being caught short here. in ANYTHING. (i still think the collapse in gold and silver was caused by the Boston terror attack myself...the biggest terror attack since 9/11. interestingly the "fake tweet" on AP was claimed to be the result of some Syrian thing.) this will be the first "scaled" executive action this President has taken since being elected in the first place...let alone re-elected. so far the rhetoric has been anything BUT "militaristic" (downright lawyerly actually.) the rhetoric does have my attention though. http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/ba?source=search_general&s=ba not that i'm expecting this of course: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Erwin_Rommel we shall see...

Thu, 04/25/2013 - 22:58 | 3501045 Oldwood
Oldwood's picture

The great depression only became "great" AFTER they started doing something, and they did plenty, for years and years. FDR's own people complained about the dramatic amount of money that was spent with no effect. And the constitution was beat to hell in the process. This is where we got the current interpretation of the "commerce clause" which allows the government to intrude into virtually every financial transaction. Please, don't preach about the great successes of the great Depression policies. We would all be better off if they all did NOTHING at all. Please go home and leave us alone!

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 04:29 | 3501475 Beam Me Up Scotty
Beam Me Up Scotty's picture

Fuck FDR. Big government prick!

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 07:31 | 3501631 tip e. canoe
tip e. canoe's picture

This is where we got the current interpretation of the "commerce clause" which allows the government to intrude into virtually every financial transaction. 

and any virtually every single human interaction is interpreted as a "financial transaction" which allows guv to intrude into virtually every single human interaction.

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 08:59 | 3501881 DOT
DOT's picture

Indeed, Tip e, the gobmint is trying to save "Financialism" not "Capitalism.

Thu, 04/25/2013 - 22:51 | 3501022 W74
W74's picture

I've been seeing a lot of this kind of drivel lately.  They're trying to create a "narrative" to feed to the population.

Ooften they will to claim that the (nominal) upswing in the stox markets and "growth" (which I denounce as a concept) as evidence that big-government, Keynesian policies are working.

 It's sick because too many sheeple think of currency as wealth which is the whole basis for this fraudulent school of thought.

Thu, 04/25/2013 - 22:51 | 3501025 Oldwood
Oldwood's picture

IF printing money works so well, why can't we all do it? The bastards pushing this drivel are the only ones getting fat while the rest of us starve. They might as well be beating me and telling me it for my own good! Obama flew over my house on his way from Waco to Dallas this evening and I was fully prepared to feel the mist on my face as he was peeing out the door on us all. The money spent for his little day trip would have probably rebuilt most of those people's homes that got blown away last week, not to mention his $10,000/plate dinner the night before. Two navy ones and three military transports. A sight like that years ago would have made me feel proud, but not anymore. Criminal elite.

Thu, 04/25/2013 - 23:12 | 3501075 sbenard
sbenard's picture

You make a good point! If simply spending without restraint and monetizing ALL the resulting debt is such a glorious idea, then why not take it to an extreme!? Let's just print $1 million for every person in the world! Or let's throw caution to the wind. Why not $1 trillion for everyone!

The thought of such an absurdly destructive notion, carried to its extremities, exposes the true insanity of the idea that simply printing money somehow creates a "wealth effect", as Bubbles Bernanke hs expressed it. Only the first few in line become wealthy, and all at the expense of everyone else that tries to feed at the pig trough subsequently. A few get rich, but everyone else is impoverished!

Thu, 04/25/2013 - 23:34 | 3501171 Bear
Bear's picture

You can print anything you want ... the secret is to tell enough lies so everyone thinks what you print is of value. 

Thu, 04/25/2013 - 23:41 | 3501197 McMolotov
McMolotov's picture

Either that or get the power of the State behind you to force people to accept what you print as having value. At the end of the day, the dollar has value because the government threatens all of us with violence if we don't accept it.

Thu, 04/25/2013 - 22:55 | 3501033 pauhana
pauhana's picture

One marshmallow now or two marshmallows if you can delay your desire for instant gratification.  Gimme mine now.  I won't live long enough to collect later.  Besides, there won't be any left.   

Thu, 04/25/2013 - 22:57 | 3501036 LetThemEatRand
LetThemEatRand's picture

This is a debate about nothing.  Let the oligarchs run the world and everything goes to shit.  Period.

Thu, 04/25/2013 - 22:56 | 3501044 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

There is something very weird going on tonight.

Thu, 04/25/2013 - 23:04 | 3501053 LetThemEatRand
LetThemEatRand's picture

Just tonight?  I haven't really been paying attention until a few minutes ago.  What's the scoop?

Thu, 04/25/2013 - 23:00 | 3501056 Oldwood
Oldwood's picture

Every day and every night seem only to get weirder. Thats probably why most old people seem to go mad. We just can't take it anymore.

Thu, 04/25/2013 - 23:06 | 3501070 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

I mean weird weird. I get home from dinner an hour ago and I am outside with my dog and some low flying aircraft shoots over my neighborhood with a red and green light flashing. Maybe a few hundred feet up. Does not make a noise. Then a helicopter just does a bunch of circles. Then one after the other after the other more of these aircrafts start coming over at all different altitudes. Almost all of them coming in from the ocean. I get my wife because I figure I have actually finally lost my mind. She stands there with her jaw dropped and watches too. There are still a bunch out there at higher altitudes now.

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