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Initial Claims Better Than Expected, Down 16K From Upward Revised Prior

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Any hopes that the S&P would hit a new all time high on horrible initial claims data may have been dashed following a report that initial claims for unemployment insurance dropped from an upward revised 355K (was 352K) to 339K, better than the expected 350K, and down to a nearly fresh five year low. It was unclear immediately following the report which states were estimated if any: as a reminder last week the DOL announced that 2 states had their data estimated. Continuing claims dropped from an upward revised 3093K to 3000K, the lowest in 5 years. Of course, with millions of people now prematurely out of the labor participation rate, what if any data the initial claims report provides these days, is very much unclear.

Looking at the week ago, we find that the states with the biggest changes up and down in claims were NY and California:

  • NY -14,113:  Fewer layoffs in the transportation, educational services, and food service industries.
  • CA +24,303: Layoffs in the service industry.

Finally, extended claims in the form of EUC, have finally seen their weekly wild gyrating oscillations quiet down.

Source: DOL

 

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Thu, 04/25/2013 - 08:45 | 3496905 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

Yet foodstamp usage continues to climb.  Are these people accepting jobs that pay in foodstamps?

Thu, 04/25/2013 - 08:51 | 3496943 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Let's stow that attitude and get back on the team and go for the big win.

Thu, 04/25/2013 - 08:58 | 3496974 Pool Shark
Pool Shark's picture

 

 

But seriously...

At some point, don't you run out of employees to layoff?

 

Thu, 04/25/2013 - 09:27 | 3497098 markettime
markettime's picture

I wonder how high the markets will go today. This is getting rather disgusting. 

Thu, 04/25/2013 - 08:53 | 3496948 LetThemEatRand
LetThemEatRand's picture

Sort of.  They are accepting jobs that don't pay enough to eat, buy gas, transportation, clothing, etc, thus food stamp usage goes up.    Working poor -- it's the new middle class.

Thu, 04/25/2013 - 09:41 | 3497193 insanelysane
insanelysane's picture

It's the new business model.

Hire workers to work part time and pay them min wage.  Gov kicks in food stamps and health care.

Win, win, win.

Company gets worker.

Government is necessary for worker to live.

Worker gets to live and doesn't pay taxes and when they feel they need a raise they can vote to take other people's money/labor.

Thu, 04/25/2013 - 11:09 | 3497806 Dyhana
Dyhana's picture

That is exactly right. I lost an ok paying job (42K a year) in 2008 and am now barely surviving on half that. When you're over 50 and lose your decent job, you're SOL to replace it and bye bye to any savings. There are a lot of us just subsisting... not buying clothing, not seeing a doctor or dentist, eating one or two small meals a day. It's very disheartening so send out hundreds of resumes to all parts of the country and get no reply. Rent, utilities, food, those are my goals every month, and rents are high as is everything else. I am glad I have a tent because I might need it for living accommodations.

Thu, 04/25/2013 - 08:57 | 3496952 DormRoom
DormRoom's picture

What's important is the trend.  If the Fed believe the the US will trend toward  6.6% unemployment, they will stop QE by the end of the year.

Thu, 04/25/2013 - 08:57 | 3496965 spastic_colon
spastic_colon's picture

nice thought....although the fed and economists in general are never ahead of the curve, they will wait until all lagging indicators have overshot their targets and do what they do best and "react" to the data. 

Thu, 04/25/2013 - 09:01 | 3496985 DormRoom
DormRoom's picture

if they dont' stop QE at 6.6%, inflationary pressures will build.  ZIRP is still here till 2015.

Thu, 04/25/2013 - 09:42 | 3497195 Terminus C
Terminus C's picture

This would be true if 6.6% meant that people were actually working... or working in quality paying jobs.  This is not the case.  Labor participation rates are heading down and those who are working are being paid less.  Inflation will not come from the workers.

QE4EVA!

Thu, 04/25/2013 - 09:13 | 3496970 Smegley Wanxalot
Smegley Wanxalot's picture

More than likely companies are cutting hours to under 30/week due to Oblowhardcare and employing another part timer to cover the initial hours cut. That appears as "more jobs" or a reduction in claims overall (instead of cutting 1 in 3 employees, you just cut all their hours back 33%), but the positions don't pay jack now and so the workers go on food stamps.  Fukkin govt.

Thu, 04/25/2013 - 08:47 | 3496919 madbraz
madbraz's picture

Disregard any validity for initial claims - it's a number manufactured to fit the needs of our president, robert rubin, and big banks trading desks.

Thu, 04/25/2013 - 09:07 | 3497008 asteroids
asteroids's picture

Bullshit number, as ususal. Ramp the futures. Sell it by noon. Everyone will have forgotten about it by the close. Same shit over and over. The number is meaningless. Ignore it or profit by the ramp.

Thu, 04/25/2013 - 09:36 | 3497140 The Master
The Master's picture

Bad data.  Good data.  Bad data.  Good Data.  Bad data.  Good data.

 

This is exactly what TPTB wants because it convinces the sheep that we are "muddling through" even though this couldn't be farther from the truth.  The volatility in the data also provides cover for perpetual QE.  

"We've always been at war with EastAsia" = "We've always been living in a QE-driven economy"

Thu, 04/25/2013 - 08:47 | 3496922 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

   That was a big revision on the continuing claims.  3,060 to 3,093. Smoke and mirrors window dressing.

Thu, 04/25/2013 - 08:49 | 3496930 ejmoosa
ejmoosa's picture

What % of terminations last week may have been to some that have multiple jobs( The New American Standard) and cannot file a claim because they still have one or two other part time jobs?

 

10%? 20%?

 

Enough to skew the results?

Thu, 04/25/2013 - 08:51 | 3496934 Ancona
Ancona's picture

Uh hunh......I wonder how long they can keep the balls in the air? Here in Florida, no one is hiring......no one. I know quite a few folks who are well qualified, but since they are in their early to late fifties, they're fucked. No one wants to hire a 'fifty something' with bucket loads of experience when they can hire some college kid for a third, then spend the money training them over time.

This unemployment level is an illusion of the highest order, and the compliant MSM will keep touting the green shoots shey seem to see, while the rest of the country goes the way of Detroit.

Welcome to the New Dystopia, I hope you like it here!

Thu, 04/25/2013 - 09:45 | 3497226 Terminus C
Terminus C's picture

Move to Alberta/Saskatchewan... lots of jobs in the 'patch.

Sure the work is shit, the weather is shit but the pay is good.

Thu, 04/25/2013 - 08:51 | 3496940 bnbdnb
bnbdnb's picture

No one is on unemployment, no one is getting new jobs. This will be the norm for the rest of your lives.

Thu, 04/25/2013 - 08:52 | 3496944 kerneltrade
kerneltrade's picture

It doesnt matter whether it is up or down..  All it matters some kind of numbers to ramp the market up .

Thu, 04/25/2013 - 08:54 | 3496950 Blue Dog
Blue Dog's picture

To say they're better than expected is a sick joke. The unemployment numbers are a total fraud anyway. Real unemployment is about 23% according to Shadowstats.com. It really doesn't matter how many job losses there are in a week when the economy continues to implode. There won't be a recovery. The Fed is killing the dollar. Obamacare, high taxes, and all the new regulations are killing the economy. And I couldn't care less what motivates the idiots who buy stocks.

Thu, 04/25/2013 - 08:54 | 3496955 q99x2
q99x2's picture

No work to get laid off from = Brown Shoots.

Thu, 04/25/2013 - 08:56 | 3496957 Waterfallsparkles
Waterfallsparkles's picture

It would be interesting to see the connection between the drop in Unemployment claims to the increase of Disability Claims.

Thu, 04/25/2013 - 09:10 | 3497025 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Whole country getting by on being disabled....fucking pathetic.

Thu, 04/25/2013 - 08:55 | 3496960 bnbdnb
bnbdnb's picture

I have this feeling that if unemployment gets under 7%, gdp targetting will become the new hot FOMC topic.

Thu, 04/25/2013 - 09:00 | 3496976 eri
eri's picture

Expect the better than expected

Thu, 04/25/2013 - 09:10 | 3497007 MFLTucson
MFLTucson's picture

"Looking at the week ago, we find that the states with the biggest changes up and down in claims were NY and California:"

 

And we know we can believe Cumo. Bloomberg and Jerry Brown.  Sure! In fact, these are the same two cesspools that stopped reporting unemployment right before the election so they could halp Bozo rig the numbers.

Thu, 04/25/2013 - 09:22 | 3497068 Hulk
Hulk's picture

Instead of k, they should use i, because these numbers are  imaginary...

Thu, 04/25/2013 - 09:23 | 3497076 thismarketisrigged
thismarketisrigged's picture

it was too funny today on cnbc.

 

rick santelli was talking about how the economy is going down the drain and how the intial jobless claims does not indicate a healthy job market by any means, and then this douchebag from ubs comes on and says, and no i am not making this up, he says how we only had 1 bad jobs report recently and it was '' due to the weather''.

 

that douchebag blamed a bad jobs report on the weather, this was the march report.

 

can someone please explain to me what the fuck the weather had to do with it? weather is something that always exsists and always will continue to exsist, these fuckers just keep coming up with the worst reasons possible for bad job reports.

 

i wanted to punch this guy in the face

Thu, 04/25/2013 - 09:39 | 3497180 pazmaker
pazmaker's picture

North Carolina decreased it's maximum unemployment check from $500.00 to $350.00 and now has biggest drop in unemployment number in awhile...but don't think that means more people are working  11,000 fewer working in March than in February and 22,500 suddenly not looking for work... and the great new Governor gave his cabinet on average 8% salary increases.....

RALEIGH, N.C. (AP) — North Carolina's unemployment rate fell to 9.2 percent in March, its lowest level in more than a year, but other data in the monthly report by the state Commerce Department Friday signaled job prospects were barely improving.

The report's positives were that the unemployment rate dropped from 9.4 percent in February and that the number of people unemployed fell by nearly 12,000 between February and March. On the down side, nearly 11,000 fewer people held jobs than in February and about 22,500 workers were suddenly no longer working or looking for work.

Read more: http://www.sfgate.com/news/article/NC-s-March-unemployment-rate-drops-to-9-2-percent-4448051.php#ixzz2RTvp0ENg

 

Thu, 04/25/2013 - 09:49 | 3497249 NEOSERF
NEOSERF's picture

If the gov would just change the rules and only allow those working 45 avg. hours per week (with an ADP stub as verification) uninterrupted for the last 5 years as a requirement, we could really make some progress on this number.

Thu, 04/25/2013 - 11:55 | 3497996 Abi Normal
Abi Normal's picture

We all know the numbers are skewed, the liars in DC and state Govt are doing their best to make things look better, when in fact things are getting worse by the day.  How can losing 300K+ jobs per week be a good thing?  How can millions of discouraged workers dropping off the cliff be a good thing?  How can cutting hours, so companies can get ready for ObummerCare be a good thing?  All of this is BS, and we are being spoonfed lies and distortions, the weather my azz! I sit back and fold my arms in disgust!!!  I wondering when the tipping point happens, if we've not tipped already?  If so, where is the backbone to stand up to this crap?  Oh that's right 2 billion JHP, 7000 "personal protection devices" and 3000 MRAPS, 300K Obummer army...I guess we won't be doing anything about this after all??  Make no mistake, not advocating any violence, but to get LOTS of people up in DC to air our grievences...oh wait we cant do that anymore...never mind!

Thu, 04/25/2013 - 13:39 | 3498688 Dre4dwolf
Dre4dwolf's picture

So the rate at which things are getting worst is slowing down slightly, maybe the people were just lazy to show up and make the claim.

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