Syrian "Incursion" Imminent? Hints From Current US Naval Positions

Tyler Durden's picture

Following the dramatic change in rhetoric from Washington over the past 24 hours regarding Syrian "Weapons of Chemical Destruction", the phrases "Middle East" and "geopolitical risk" are suddenly back in the same sentence on the lips of those sitting around trading desks, leading to a powerful jump in the oil complex where Brent is having its best day in four months, and WTI in give.

Yet the feasibility of an armed conflict with Syria, which Russia has made very clear in the past is a strategic ally in the region aside, is the probability of an incursion truly imminent? For that we go to Stratfor's latest weekly update of US naval assets, which shows that if indeed Obama is planning to do a flyover showing off his Nobel Peace prize above Damascus, there will be a waiting time of at least several weeks as there is nothing in the immediate Syrian offshore vicinity to provide the necessary naval support.

It appears that the 5th Fleet only has CVN-69 Eisenhower in the vicinity of Bahrain, as well as one big deck amphibious ship, the Kearsarge keeping an eye on the Straits of Hormuz. Assuming both ships are tasked to supervise any missions involving Syria that would leave Iran and the Straits of Hormuz unguarded, which is why we doubt this would happen. In fact, it is more likely that CVN 75 and 77, which are currently under way in the Atlantic, will be redirected to the east Mediterranean to provide the necessary air cover should operation "Liberating the Syrian Al-Qaeda funded Rebellion" be a go.

Perhaps as interesting is the positioning of LHA 5 and LHD 6 in the East China Sea, just off the China/Japan disputed island chain, where things are just as sensitive as they are in the middle east and where neither side is willing to back down.

Source: Stratfor

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Pladizow's picture

They may or may not have WMD's, more likely - not, but still their oil must be liberated or they will hate us for our freedoms!

kushmere's picture

The liberation of the oil will have a liberating effect on the value of the USD. Bitcoin will become more of a diversified refuge (though not a safe haven).

http://bestbitcoinsites.wordpress.com

knukles's picture

With no American assets in the vicinity, France will deploy their carrier "Clouseau"

 

 

zuuma's picture

wag that dog!

Obummer has been having a bad month.  Time to jazz things up in the news. Get back on top.

What better way than a massive, new drone armada, sweeping across syria?

The logo on the drones should be a nice pic of his Nobel peace prize. Yes! The one he EARNED a few weeks after taking office.

That way, th UN will be fully on board.

 

I think he needs a Heisman, next.

McMolotov's picture

We should have corporate sponsorships and paint up our fleet of drones with the logos of MIC companies. Make it like fucking Nascar with missiles.

suteibu's picture

Politicians should likewise be forced to display their sponsors.

kridkrid's picture

Sure would make things more transparent:

 

 


Smedley D. Butler quotes  “I spent 33 years and four months in active military service and during that period I spent most of my time as a high class muscle man for Big Business, for Wall Street and the bankers. In short, I was a racketeer, a gangster for capitalism. I helped make Mexico and especially Tampico safe for American oil interests in 1914. I helped make Haiti and Cuba a decent place for the National City Bank boys to collect revenues in. I helped in the raping of half a dozen Central American republics for the benefit of Wall Street. I helped purify Nicaragua for the International Banking House of Brown Brothers in 1902-1912. I brought light to the Dominican Republic for the American sugar interests in 1916. I helped make Honduras right for the American fruit companies in 1903. In China in 1927 I helped see to it that Standard Oil went on its way unmolested. Looking back on it, I might have given Al Capone a few hints. The best he could do was to operate his racket in three districts. I operated on three continents.”
? Smedley D. Butler, War is a Racket: The Antiwar Classic by America's Most Decorated Soldier
smlbizman's picture

i am sure he would be a proud card carrying digital dickweed if he were with us.....

BraveSirRobin's picture

Aircraft carriers and naval assets are not required here to get the ball rolling. We have air assets and bases in theater able to use airstrips in Crete and Turkey.

The sticking point is Russia seems poised to defend Assad. However, we have declared the use of chemcial weapons as a "Red Line." So, if they use Chemical Weapons, either we do something, or back down.

It would not suprise me to see Russian and Assad coordinate a limited use of chemical weapons to cross that line and force the US and NATO to back down from it's "Red Line" threats, thereby increasing its political, diplomatic, and military power in the region.

If we are lucky, however, we will start WW III. The arms buildup and fixing all the broken windows will create an economic boom to pull us out of this depression fro good. It could also reduce the excess population to the extent that oil reserves per capita are again excessive, and we will have a new era of abundant, cheap oil.

Pray for global nuclear war. It's really the best possible outcome, according to Paul Krugman's economic theories, anyway.

DeadFred's picture

I thought PK prefered an alien invasion...

BraveSirRobin's picture

Yes, all other things being equal, as the economist like to say.

Kirk2NCC1701's picture

"Pray for global nuclear war. It's really the best possible outcome, according to Paul Krugman's economic theories, anyway."

I'm praying for a nuke-winter on PK and all Keynesians (Greedspan, etc).  May they not RIP.

dunce's picture

We have no dog in this fight, we can only lose by getting involved. Russia has ships in place and we do not want a war with Russia. We win  no matter who comes out on top because then the situation is settled and stable. Syria has nothing that we want other than non interference with Israel though obama, as a muslim, looks forward to a belligerant  muslim state.

americanspirit's picture

smlbizman - you really should read the book before making uninformed comments like that. Maj. Gen. Smedley Butler was exactly the opposite of those digital dickweeds you so rightly disrespect.

Dr. Engali's picture

We need to liberate them from their gold too. After all its for the children.

Everybodys All American's picture

Obama's foreign policy is unraveling and he needs to move quickly. The Saudi connection to the WH whether in Benghazi or with the Boston massacre has been exposed and so the time is now or never.

Groundhog Day's picture

Thier are known knowns, then their are things we no that are unknowm then there are unknown unknowns you see

Know do you understand what i mean?

Che Guevara is Dead's picture

Too bad Syria only produces about 400k bbl/day, which isn't really a lot to liberate and then hand over to the Chinese to exploit. 

So I guess we'll just have to blame da Jooz. 

FlyingPurpleSheepleEater's picture

Well since pressure cooker bombs are now WMDs, anything equivalent or more powerful would definitely make them targets.

Buck Johnson's picture

When I heard this afternoon that the US was saying that Syria used chemical weapons I knew that we where going into Syria and real soon. 

alien-IQ's picture

JESUS FUCKING CHRIST WHEN THE FUCK IS AMERIKA GONNA STOP FIGHTING WARS FOR THE BENEFIT OF ISRAEL?

I'M SO FUCKING DISGUSTED WITH THIS COUNTRY I COULD PUKE FOR 10 YEARS WITHOUT STOPPING!

Canucklehead's picture

10 years?  Would you put that up on Youtube?

Sokhmate's picture

Might have to use timelapse.

Canucklehead's picture

I'm thinking he would use an animated GIF file.

flacon's picture

It's got something to do with a monopoly on debt-based interest bearing fiat money. And swearing at Jesus isn't helping...

Kirk2NCC1701's picture

Regardless of which side you like or agree with, the PRACTICAL thing to do, would be to let both sides duke it out in their Octagon.  Only one winner emerges (Settlers or Palestinians), and we finally have peace.  And, in spite of all the false propaganda and BS, you can bet your last FRN in your wallet, that NO other Muslim country will raise an army and start marching.  Even Pakistan (with its nukes) won't give a shit.

/But where would that leave the MIC?  The non-Jewish MIC. /s

"Perpetual war for perpetual peace."  And perpetual profits.

Canadian Dirtlump's picture

It is disgusting. What I want to know is why these guys are busy installing militant anti jewish ( not merely anti israel - anyone with a brain should be anti israel ) governments in countries in immediate proximity to Israel.

 

They are absolutelt, unapologetically making the status of Israel's security weaker and weaker. My only thought is to foster weapon sales, or someone is trying to literally get biblical.

john39's picture

the psychopaths running is-ra-el, and the united states, will reap the bitterness that they have sown.  God forgive the ignorant people of the world who enable the killers to do what they are doing.

ExpendableOne's picture

First the bogeyman must be built up.  Then cut down.  No side can be allowed to "win" that would screw up the game.

Kirk2NCC1701's picture

Like most people who do not wish to get sucked into the Israel/Palestinian debate (who started it, who is more to blame, whose dad or God can beat the crap out of the other guy's dad or God), I just want this bullshit to END.  Winner takes all!

I just want this to END, like you Canucks want the "god-damn winter" to end, come April -- or the hockey season to end, come June.  Eh.

BraveSirRobin's picture

The main driver of war with Syria is actually Turkey, which would like to reunite the Ottoman Empire and Caliphate. Turkey has always been the greatest threat to Syria, not Israel. If you could see how Turkish and Syrian forces were deployed over the decades, you would understand this. Syria, before the dissolution of the Ottoman Empire after WWI, was part of Ottoman Empire. There has been a long and persistent fear that Turkey joined NATO to get cover against Russian to pursue its ambitions against Syria.

So, this is being driven by Turkish ambitions. In addition, Turkey will go to war to deny a recognized or de-facto Kurdish state in Syria as they would view such an occurrence as a threat to their territorial integrity and security.

Israel, on the other hand, would not like a solution to the civil war, but would like it to extend forever, if possible, as this obliterates any threat from Syria. Therefore, Israel would not desire intervention to impose stability, especially in favor of an Islamist replacement for Assad.

Saudi Arabia and Jordan would like to see Assad taken out to reduce the regional influence of Iran, who they detest, but, likewise, do not want to see an increase in Turkish power over Syria. This is a very complex political environment, and has very little to do with Israel.

americanspirit's picture

BSR - at last somebody with something to actually add to the conversation. I'm afraid that the shades of grey with which you characterize the current ME situation are way beyond too many current US readers of Zerohedge. But what a relief after the seemingly endless stream of ignorant "joos and bitchez" comments. Thank you.

Panafrican Funktron Robot's picture

Gray is the color of obfuscation.  Not sure why you would applaud this behavior.  It's not nearly as complicated as BSR is making it out to be.  Who the fuck do you think runs Turkey, dummy?

ersatzteil's picture

It's quite simple, really. Turkey is a secular, godless Western state that happens to be majority Muslim. And they store American nuclear weapons as part of NATO policy.

Give them a choice between taking orders from Brussels in the EU or a Caliphate in Istanbul, and they'll choose the former.

cape_royds's picture

While it might be true that the Israelis aren't backing any of the factions involved in the Syrian Civil War, it is not true to say that this has "very little to do with Israel."

For the Israelis, the Syrian conflict is mostly about Lebanon.

The Israelis' principal enemy in Lebanon is the Hezbollah, who have been supported by the Assad gov't in Syria. Hezbollah has twice thwarted Israeli ambitions to annex territory in Lebanon, most recently in 2006. Hezbollah has been the only Arab political group with a track record of success against the Israelis.

So the Israelis will eventually want to take advantage of the Syrian Civil War to once again attack the Lebanese.

Right now the Israelis are hoping that Lebanon will suffer from a spillover of the Syrian fighting, since the only times Israel has ever been able to invade Lebanon has been when Lebanon has been riven by its own civil wars.

CustomersMan's picture

Israel, reasons Syria's mercenary attackers are being supported:

There are SO many reasons for Israel to be backing the rebels (Al-Cia-Da) and other mercenaries.

yes they want to destroy Hezbollah, Iran and anyone else with power in the area that may be a threat to their hegemony

they want the water, and control of it all in the area

they want more land,ersatz Israel

they want the oil and gas both on-shore and off-shore

they want to destroy any banks that are Not hooked into the FED and Bank of London, just one reason Syria must go. Clark Clifford mentioned the 7 countries they wanted to destroy, they are nearing the end of that list.

 

they want to destroy the civilization of all Arabs, send them back in time 50-100 years,so Israel will be the only advanced country in the area.

 

they want others to kill for them and in most cases cover the cost, preferably have them destroy each other by stirring animosity, through set-ups and false flags, break-up and Balkenize the countries so they can better destroy the remnants.

they like killing Arabs, and compare themselves to the American's and the Indians

they want control of the Caspian Basin, through Georgia and other countries like Azerbaijan, solidifying control of the flow of oil and gas and now water resources,...if they could control air/oxygen they would take that to, and restrict it, and gouge all humans who need it.

 

....and the list goes on and on and on. What a destructive,deceptive treacherous and deadly group of vipers, a true menace to humanity.

 

tony wilson's picture

 

we are the slaughtered jew.

we are the helpless zionist

pity us

we are so weak

we are surrounded by evil doers

we let the germans destroy us

we have let history crush us

we are weak victims

we are washington

well we own it

we have all the intel within of the congressmen rapists,sodomites and child killers.

pity us help us congress because we worship satan as well.

all we have is sex and rape information,mossad and 476 nuclear missilles

by hook or crook you will do as we say.

NoClueSneaker's picture

Jonathan Pollard is yer next POTUS . :-P Keep k00l ... hehehe ....

Edward J's picture

Israel is just a distraction that they hope can be used as justification for war with Iran.

Land access (and a pipeline) to the Caspian Sea is the key goal here (the last major foreign source of oil not under their control). So far, Russia is the only major military power that has access to it.

The majority countries around the caspian sea have agreements with Russia for supply with the only west friendly supplying country being Azerbaijan which has at most access to only 1/5 of the oil fields.

If the US can depose the government of Iran and replace it with a more west friendly dictator or 'democracy' - then it will be able to gain direct military (through installation of yet another strategic oil related US base) and a direct pipeline. This will allow western interests to significantly increase their share of the caspian sea oil reserves.

 

 

DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Please President Obama, not another war...

El Viejo's picture

The choice between an anti-american Muslim theocracy and another WMD using tyrant(Rusian backed). Why on earth would we get envolved? I hate to see the violence, but it sounds like a lose lose to me. You have to have a critcal mass before democracy has even a chance of succeeding.

BraveSirRobin's picture

Best solution is to keep the war going and expand it as wide as possible. We must break as many windows as possible to boost demand and production. In fact, with a global nuclear war, not only could we print and spend money, we could print and burn it to speed up the recovery process.

Meat Hammer's picture

The fact that your plea is directed at the Pres and not Congress shows how far we've fallen.

McMolotov's picture

Congressional declarations of war are sooo passé. This is the post-Constitutional era. Obama is The Decider™, as was Bush before him.

Kirk2NCC1701's picture

That's because we no longer have "wars".  It's a Peace Prize dividend, don't you know. 

We now only have "rumors of wars", "humanitarian efforts" and "kinetic action".  And sometimes we have "Shock & Awe" campaigns.