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Syrian "Incursion" Imminent? Hints From Current US Naval Positions

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Following the dramatic change in rhetoric from Washington over the past 24 hours regarding Syrian "Weapons of Chemical Destruction", the phrases "Middle East" and "geopolitical risk" are suddenly back in the same sentence on the lips of those sitting around trading desks, leading to a powerful jump in the oil complex where Brent is having its best day in four months, and WTI in give.

Yet the feasibility of an armed conflict with Syria, which Russia has made very clear in the past is a strategic ally in the region aside, is the probability of an incursion truly imminent? For that we go to Stratfor's latest weekly update of US naval assets, which shows that if indeed Obama is planning to do a flyover showing off his Nobel Peace prize above Damascus, there will be a waiting time of at least several weeks as there is nothing in the immediate Syrian offshore vicinity to provide the necessary naval support.

It appears that the 5th Fleet only has CVN-69 Eisenhower in the vicinity of Bahrain, as well as one big deck amphibious ship, the Kearsarge keeping an eye on the Straits of Hormuz. Assuming both ships are tasked to supervise any missions involving Syria that would leave Iran and the Straits of Hormuz unguarded, which is why we doubt this would happen. In fact, it is more likely that CVN 75 and 77, which are currently under way in the Atlantic, will be redirected to the east Mediterranean to provide the necessary air cover should operation "Liberating the Syrian Al-Qaeda funded Rebellion" be a go.

Perhaps as interesting is the positioning of LHA 5 and LHD 6 in the East China Sea, just off the China/Japan disputed island chain, where things are just as sensitive as they are in the middle east and where neither side is willing to back down.

Source: Stratfor

 

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Thu, 04/25/2013 - 17:37 | 3499776 FeralSerf
FeralSerf's picture

Your SUV doesn't run if you don't feed it.

SUVs don't kill people. People kill people.

Conclusion: Get rid of the people.

Thu, 04/25/2013 - 15:41 | 3499279 DutchR
DutchR's picture

Zoom out on this Stratfor map and what do you get?

 

Little blue marble, an d/t's , we, want to ff it all up.....

 

Smart as yeast

Thu, 04/25/2013 - 15:48 | 3499321 Edward Fiatski
Edward Fiatski's picture

Hasn't it always been so - the Blue Marble..?

Almost nobody gives a damn.

Aliens probably laughing at us.

God has erased this planet from his bookmarks/favourites and doesn't visit anymore.

Thu, 04/25/2013 - 15:41 | 3499282 Cone of Silence
Cone of Silence's picture

No carriers in the Mediterrainian Sea.  How can it function without them? 

Thu, 04/25/2013 - 17:24 | 3499719 americanspirit
americanspirit's picture

No worries Cone - we have plenty of submerged firepower. Those sea-launched cruise missiles can do pretty much everything a carrier or two can do when it comes to delivering shock and awe. Then we have hundreds of land-based aircraft for follow-up. Those Syrian civilians - er, terrorists - don't stand a chance.

Thu, 04/25/2013 - 15:48 | 3499324 Disenchanted
Disenchanted's picture

I'm certainly glad there's no budget/debt/economic crisis to deter the boys and girls at the DoD from fighting for my freedom. /s

Thu, 04/25/2013 - 15:49 | 3499325 dcohen
dcohen's picture

Why is the US gov giving money to people who like blowing up americans? Just wondering, and why is the american people accepting it?

Thu, 04/25/2013 - 16:02 | 3499347 Zer0head
Zer0head's picture

have you ever watched the CBS evening news with Scott Pelley?

 

It's like watching Mr Rogers Neighborfuckinghood

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2UGC4AriDlg

Thu, 04/25/2013 - 16:12 | 3499418 Hannibal
Hannibal's picture

In order to "Save" the country we had to destroy it!

Thu, 04/25/2013 - 16:19 | 3499461 Divine Wind
Divine Wind's picture

 

 

Keep in mind this chart recently published by Tyler.

Take note of what happened the last time the 10-Year dipped this low.

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2013/04/20130423_10Y.jpg

You may want to think long and hard (well, not that long) about staying in the market.

With the totality of events (COMEX delivery problems, surging phyz prices, printing presses running at warp speed, high unemployment, countries dumping the dollar, the Chinese and Japanese bumping shoulders, PUD demanding environmental impact statements for every ounce of gold and silver sold, , etc...), it may be time to move to the sidelines.

Something ugly is on the way.

Thu, 04/25/2013 - 16:20 | 3499463 TrustbutVerify
TrustbutVerify's picture

I don't disagree with the need to possiby take action in regard to the chemical weapons having been used in Iran.  Its does occur to me, though, that if a Republican were in office any move toward a possible action would have, by now, set off the standard apoplexia and declarations that the "president is a 'war monger.' "  

Thu, 04/25/2013 - 16:22 | 3499471 Divine Wind
Divine Wind's picture

 

 

Oh heck yes. The libs would be frothing at the mouth.

Thu, 04/25/2013 - 16:48 | 3499564 BattlegroundEur...
BattlegroundEurope2011's picture

Hey Obama, Cameron,...

 

NOT IN MY FUCKING NAME !!!

Thu, 04/25/2013 - 17:36 | 3499763 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

EUREKA, I'VE GOT IT:  MIDDLE EAST PEACE!

 

   1. Store all the Central Banks' Gold in Jerusalem. 

   2. Guard it with an H-Nuke. 

   3. Anyone moves on the country or Jerusalem... kaboom, UP she goes!  Gold and all!

Lemme tell you, that would keep a lid on the CB's and the MIC-Fuckers.  They'd quickly find a way to re-direct their energies, minds and assets into other venues.

Thu, 04/25/2013 - 19:33 | 3500301 ersatzteil
ersatzteil's picture

Already happened in Fort Knox back in the 1960's...a major holder of physical gold tries to set a nuke off in the bullion chamber, increasing the price of gold - and his personal wealth - exponentially in a picosecond.

Spoiler alert: it ends with Sean Connery banging a "lesbian" and an electrocuted Korean, followed by the USD uncoupling from the gold standard a decade later.

Thu, 04/25/2013 - 17:52 | 3499863 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

Failing my above "Eureka" moment... I think that the Israelis need to do one of two things:

1.  Have a real peace accord with the Palestinians.  Recognize them -- or allow the US to recognize them -- relocate many of the Settlers, etc., etc.

2.  Wipe out the whole lot.  Down to the last person.  The way Moses did it, but claimed it was God's will.

Netanyahoo, pick 1 or 2.  But pick, dammit!  If you pick #1, then just say "deal with it" to the right-wing zealots.  If you pick #2 and succeed, you and the world will know it was "God's will" after all.  Obama is a schmuck anyway, and he won't stop you, no matter what he says.  Cause he knows who's really in charge. 

Cause what you currently have over there, has got to be inter-galactic-class, non-kosher, pure bullshit.  And US and EU politicians are world-class, spineless scum-bags for playing along.

Thu, 04/25/2013 - 18:24 | 3500001 jonjon831983
jonjon831983's picture

If anything happens they need to run interference, too many people keep track of things so they stay on guard.  China/Japan, Bird Flu, North Korea, bombings and major explosion accidents in USA (NOT saying these bombing and explosions are "false flags", but add as good fear generators).  Not to mention hints of Iran added into news casts every day.  They all serve to distract the public and conveniently create a hint of fear into the psyche.

Now people's attentions are diverted nobody knows for sure where will find action.  Will N.Korea launch a test missile?  Will things escalate further between China and Japan?  Look here...look... there... and poof.

Thu, 04/25/2013 - 18:33 | 3500052 Bloody Chiclitz
Bloody Chiclitz's picture

The US (via Obama and Kerry) ain't gonna do jack in

Syria.

We are going to keep Israel and Turkey from doing anything also. We'll give the butthole Al Queada lovin opposition some gear but not too much. We'll watch to see how they use it and how they talk about using it. We'll generate lots of useless intel on who rises to the top of the heap. We won't keep the Saudis and others from sending them stuff but we are not going to push this very hard in any direction. The more this bogs down and the longer it stays a mess the better we'll like it.

Big bunch of nothing.

Thu, 04/25/2013 - 20:31 | 3500576 stiler
stiler's picture

if the US were to go to open war w Syria, there would be hell to pay. What's his name, Syrian leader has said as much. We are pushing it with our covert backing of opposition forces there. What could he do? US terrorism? or strengthen the eastern powers to consolidate and attack Israel? The iron curtain between east/west remains and woe to any US leader who thinks he or she is world leader. That time is yet to come.

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 00:58 | 3501325 Manic by Proxy
Manic by Proxy's picture

I'm confused. Obama said that if he talks nice with adversaries they would like us and we all would live in peace. What could have gone wrong?

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 06:29 | 3501549 luckylongshot
luckylongshot's picture

General Wesley Clark removed any possibility that what is happening in Syria is anything more than a US financed invasion by admitting years ago that after overthrowing Sadam Hussein the plan was then to get rid of Gaddafi followed by Assad and then Iran. Now the lying bastards are trying to gain some sort of moral authority for the plan by claiming Syria used weapons of mass destruction. That moral authority was never there and never will be.

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