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Overhyped Q1 GDP Grows By Only 2.5%, Biggest Miss To Expectations Since September 2011

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Less than an hour ago we speculated that "it wouldn't be surprising for GDP to come substantially weaker than expected, only to be revised higher (or lower) subsequently." Sure enough, we have gotten at least the first part right for now, with the advance Q1 GDP number printing a very disappointing 2.5%, on expectations of a 3.0% increase, up from 0.4% in Q4, and the biggest miss since Q3 2011. The reason for the big miss: Inventory and Fixed Investment came well below expectations, comprising 1.03% (of which autos represented 0.24%) and 0.53% of the 2.5% annualized increase GDP. Kiss the great CapEx investment story goodbye.

The only silver lining in today's otherwise very weak report: Personal Consumption Expenditures, which were a sizable 3.2% versus the 2.8% expected, and amounted to 2.24% or virtually all of the net Q1 GDP growth. So far so good .The bad news, however, is that this number will not sustain into Q2 and look for expenditures to plunge in the coming quarter. Finally, let's not forget that it rained like 5 days in March, so there's that. And of course, very soon, all GDP will be revised to add intangibles, so in retrospect Q1 GDP will likely have grown by a Ministry of Truth blush-inducing 10% or so.

 

And for those confused why the spending spree led "recovery" won't last, the answer is simple: the US consumer is out of money, as can be seen by this savings (or lack thereof) rate chart.

Source: BEA

 

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Fri, 04/26/2013 - 08:47 | 3501812 spastic_colon
spastic_colon's picture

The GDP revision in July is less about statistical correction and more about how to manipulate income reporting as well.  Not only will the revision make GDP look higher, it will also make it look as though incomes are rising unless I am reading the article from 2006 wrong.

 

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/04/09/business/yourmoney/09view.html?_r=0

 

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 08:45 | 3501815 flacon
flacon's picture

I'm sellling my puts today and buying calls. We'll be up, up, up and away next week! 

/ only half joking

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 08:51 | 3501833 Zer0head
Zer0head's picture

BLoomburp headline

Economy in U.S. Grows at Faster Pace as Consumers Boost Spending

 

and the fine print

Gross domestic product rose at a 2.5 percent annual rate, lower than forecast,

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-04-26/economy-in-u-s-grows-at-faster-...

 

Fucking Plouffe has only been there for 10 minutes and already he is hard at work

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 08:56 | 3501863 TeamDepends
TeamDepends's picture

They are little more than stock market cheerleaders.  Can't wait for the +$500 gold days to see how they try to spin it.

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 08:58 | 3501876 dontgoforit
dontgoforit's picture

I was hoping I'd have to eat crow.  I said on Monday the DJIA would be down 600 pts this week - well, looks like it might just bust through 15,000 any day now.  And gold has rebounded to around $1470, so, yeah, I read those tea leaves very wrong.  So, another $85 billion next week, sir?  Thank you, sir.

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 08:59 | 3501895 King_of_simpletons
King_of_simpletons's picture

It beat someone's expectations. That is all that matters.

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 09:03 | 3501898 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

The problem with reading tea leaves is they're really just shit weeds.

Shit Weeds - YouTube

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 09:15 | 3501945 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

I've changed brokers....and have gotten really good results with this guy.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y7ZN2F_7K7U

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 09:03 | 3501902 Chuck Norris
Chuck Norris's picture

Did they forget to account for GM channel stuffing?  That ought to be good for 0.5%

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 09:20 | 3501966 Ned Zeppelin
Ned Zeppelin's picture

I'm afraid it is very clear that fundamentals don't matter when the Fed is printing a minimum of $45 billion a month, and that's what we know about.  Next time you're thinking about about shorting the S&P please google "POMO schedule" for that month and think again.  The rising tide. More like tsunami.  Stay out of the way.

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 09:57 | 3502155 dontgoforit
dontgoforit's picture

Thanks; will do.

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 10:40 | 3502291 SeattleBruce
SeattleBruce's picture

"Next time you're thinking about about shorting the S&P please google "POMO schedule" for that month and think again."

And also look at the Weimar stock market for clues.  My advice, everyone's advice here: steer clear of the ponzi.

http://nowandfutures.com/weimar.html

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 09:07 | 3501916 Groundhog Day
Groundhog Day's picture

when you say half joking are you joking about selling your puts and buying calls or we'll be up up up and away.  i hope your joking about the later

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 09:30 | 3502023 First There Is ...
First There Is A Mountain's picture

Don't joke about this. Buy 10K TNA, put your feet up and let Da Boyz do the heavy lifting for you. I'm a professional trader/Market Maker who bet on the short side knowing we'd see a GDP miss. I come in this morning, flip on my Brass and watch as my SPXU, UVXY and individual shorts slowly melt down (up?) as the morning goes on. ES being bid up. Resistance is futile. 5-7% corrections is the rule going forward. What a fucking joke this country has become.

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 09:36 | 3502058 Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

The joker sits in the WH who continues to employ the Fed Chairsatan. The only conclusion a sane man can make at this point is that both want this country to go bankrupt.

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 09:48 | 3502117 Mr. Magoo
Mr. Magoo's picture

Government loves you so sleep now rest assured
Your taxes make prisoners of war around the world
They'll mind warp and drug you rape your little girl
Your government loves you so sleep now rest assured

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 09:56 | 3502146 moneybots
moneybots's picture

They want the world to go bankrupt.  Co-ordinated government and monetary intervention.

 

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 10:41 | 3502314 SeattleBruce
SeattleBruce's picture

"both want this country to go bankrupt."

Rahm to Obummer: "Never let a good crisis go to waste!"  Of course we know the US is already bankrupt.  We've just papered it over - lipstick on a pig - with trillions in debt based, reserve currency fiat, exporting our worthless debt about the world.  Question for us really is, what will 'they' do next, and especially once things pick up to the downside (as so many indicators appear to show), and what will WE do...

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 10:02 | 3502162 moneybots
moneybots's picture

Looking from the outside, i think the market wants to get to 15,000 before falling out of the wedge.

Wall Street loves those good round numbers.

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 11:18 | 3502455 First There Is ...
First There Is A Mountain's picture

Yes, just over 15K before it hits the bottom of the channel at 14666 and bounces to new all time highs.....lol. It never ends, until it does.

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 08:48 | 3501822 Jacque Itch
Jacque Itch's picture

But... but... but... Zandi said it would be 4%.  Don't tell me he's wrong????

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 08:59 | 3501892 azzhatter
azzhatter's picture

Zandi is an assweasel

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 09:22 | 3501974 CrimsonAvenger
CrimsonAvenger's picture

I'll drink to that. Hell, these days I'll drink to anything.

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 10:02 | 3502163 dontgoforit
dontgoforit's picture

Here's to 'non-sense.'  Cheers.

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 08:55 | 3501861 ejmoosa
ejmoosa's picture

Just read the article.  That's one way to get companies like Solyndra and Fiiskars to boost the GDP even if they never make a dime.

 

Now we can keep funding other money losing endeavors, and we will all benefit from the boost in the economy.

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 08:48 | 3501816 Cursive
Cursive's picture

These numbers aren't even relevant anymore.

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 09:01 | 3501890 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Cursive  (and anyone else) I never saw this Santelli interview posted on ZH but fast forward to 4 mins 30 seconds in and listen to this greaseball douchebag hyundai salesman economist describe how to boost GDP.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F_HAD9NqBk8

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 09:11 | 3501927 Bearwagon
Bearwagon's picture

Buy even more crap ... give this man a cigar ...

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 09:12 | 3501939 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

If I owned trillions in UST's I'd be somewhat concerned. But that's just me.

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 09:16 | 3501951 onewayticket2
onewayticket2's picture

bearwagon, you are correct...they are not relevant...to us....but to 90% of the population, all they get out of this is the bloomberg headline.  and it's positive. 

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 10:57 | 3502368 SeattleBruce
SeattleBruce's picture

"but to 90% of the population, all they get out of this is the bloomberg headline." - that may be true for most of the sheeple.  But they also know 2 or 3 people personally that are un and under-employed or that can't hit their quotas, or are losing their homes, or pretty dramatically downsizing, even going on food stamps, soup kitchens or going homeless. 

While people desperately want to be positive, and don't quite understand why things are the way they are, they know that things are not all peaches and cream in Obummer's Camelot.

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 12:11 | 3502719 de3de8
de3de8's picture

Yeah, and that's the mentality of the supposedly smart, no wonder we're in the mess we're in.

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 09:03 | 3501909 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

These aren't the numbers you're looking for. (wave hand, invoke Jedi power)

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 09:16 | 3501960 Che Guevara is Dead
Che Guevara is Dead's picture

It says volumes about this administration that they can't win at a game they've rigged. The Chicago Machine ain't what it used to be.

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 09:30 | 3502027 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

"we don't appear to be uniting around the lie" here either do we Che. The call getting Congress to agree on anything "cat herding" but that's nothing when dealing with a Wall Street that's just talking it's book. Sure we all want a good economy...but is there anyone actually trying to create such a thing?

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 15:57 | 3503647 MisterMousePotato
MisterMousePotato's picture

"Sure we all want a good economy ... ."

Common misbelief.

In fact, the majority simply could not care less about the 'economy', good, bad, or indifferent.

The majority being welfare recipients and government employees, and various and associated hangers on.

All they care about is that the goodies keep flowing. Not a single one could give a shit about there being jobs or not being jobs available in the private sector, or whether a small business (or big business, for that matter) actually makes money or is economically viable.

In California, there are 139 .gov.union employees and welfare recipients for every 100 in the private sector.

And remember, democracy is 139 wolves and 100 sheep voting on what to have for dinner.

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 09:33 | 3502030 forwardho
forwardho's picture

< ------BLS numbers are propaganda.

<------ BLS numbers are true and accurate.

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 08:48 | 3501819 Cassandra Syndrome
Cassandra Syndrome's picture

Anyone know what the "deflator" is?

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 08:53 | 3501849 madcows
madcows's picture

Flatulence.  Sorta like a big balloon deflating.

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 08:53 | 3501851 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

Anyone know what the "deflator" is?

 

The 240-lb hooker who isn't the double-D model shown on the site you called.

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 09:03 | 3501900 duo
duo's picture

everyone getting 29 hours a week of work to avoid Obamacare?

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 10:05 | 3502170 dontgoforit
dontgoforit's picture

You can almost make a living working 3 jobs @ 20-25 hours each.

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 08:46 | 3501821 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

 

 

Is Personal Consumption Expenditures gubspeak for "stockpiling"?

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 08:50 | 3501832 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

'Hollow point ammo'

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 09:01 | 3501870 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

I'm heading over to my lesbian friend's place later today.....what are you looking for? She has a government source.

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 09:03 | 3501908 azzhatter
azzhatter's picture

You're going to see Big sis?

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 08:49 | 3501825 mdtrader
mdtrader's picture

Don't worry they are changing how they calculate GDP soon. So this will be revised up to +4%.

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 08:52 | 3501846 Zer0head
Zer0head's picture

exactly - after July NetFlix, Twitter, FB etc will be part of GDP calc

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 08:47 | 3501828 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Real #? Certainly an actual negative. Who are they fooling here, themselves?

#WHATEV.

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 08:47 | 3501829 playnstocks
playnstocks's picture

Not to worry here comes the FED to blow this bubble bigger

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 08:48 | 3501834 asteroids
asteroids's picture

The ONLY reason why this number is positive is due to FED QE. Were it not it would be like every other place, negative GDP. In the mean time the number of people on food stamps hits a record. Chew on that for a while

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 08:48 | 3501837 Scro
Scro's picture

I wonder how much guns and ammo added to GDP.

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 08:59 | 3501880 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

I think guns and ammo are the only thing holding the GDP up.

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 08:59 | 3501891 dontgoforit
dontgoforit's picture

Seems everyone can 'see' this trainwreck coming, but no one can find the brakeman.  Cripes - we's in trouble, soon.

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 09:06 | 3501911 azzhatter
azzhatter's picture

It really goosed Cabela's earnings.

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 14:07 | 3503239 The Carbonator
The Carbonator's picture

The only thing I bought last Q other than food and kids stuff, was a Henry .357 Lever Action Rifle.

 

Beans and Bullets my friends.  The rest is all BS.

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 08:48 | 3501838 JP McManus
JP McManus's picture

To be revised lower over the next few quarters...  Does Personal Consumption Expenditures include higher taxes and insurance rates?

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 08:48 | 3501839 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

CONSUME you damn peasants! 

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 08:51 | 3501841 Bearwagon
Bearwagon's picture

My estimation was off by only 0.3%. Now, where is my "Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Siences"?!

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 08:50 | 3501847 Ness.
Ness.'s picture

Biggest GDP miss since 2011 and the ES contract 'tanks' a whopping 1/2 tick.  

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 09:06 | 3501910 Serfs Up
Serfs Up's picture

That's what the early release does.  All this was priced in 3 days agao.

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 08:54 | 3501853 orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

S&P500 Daily since January 1 - up 12 percent in less than 4 months - with 48M Americans on food stamps.

 

http://bullandbearmash.com/chart/sp500-daily-closes-flat-remains-bull-ch...

 

Let's see where the Ben and Barry gong show takes us today.

 

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 08:51 | 3501854 trillion_dollar...
trillion_dollar_deficit's picture

So basically a .625% quarterly economic growth rate with a concurrent 2.061% quarterly US Government debt growth rate. Yeah, thats totally sustainable.

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 08:53 | 3501860 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Must....Print.....Fasta....

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 08:52 | 3501855 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

What does GDP matter anyway? In Q1 with a dead .4% number, we had the largest % stawk market increases ever!

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 08:55 | 3501857 tip e. canoe
tip e. canoe's picture

now you know why they want to start including "intangibles".

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 08:54 | 3501865 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

GDP goin all 'quantum physics' and whatnot.

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 09:04 | 3501912 GeezerGeek
GeezerGeek's picture

The GDP has transmogrified into a gigantic quark. A very 'charmed' one, or maybe 'strange'.

Meanwhile, the S&P more and more resembles the 'up' quark. Can't wait until it changes into a 'down'.

 

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 09:44 | 3502095 YHC-FTSE
YHC-FTSE's picture

+1 Exactly.  That growth rate includes intangibles, and they still missed. Someone didn't read the script or the real figure was way too bad to manipulate without giving the game away. 

As for deflation I have a possible explanation if my area reflects as a sample: Nobody has any disposable income, businesses are closing,  and multinationals are squabbling amongst themselves using price to differentiate in competition.  That cannot last long.

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 08:53 | 3501859 Metalredneck
Metalredneck's picture

To be revised lower in a few weeks.

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 08:53 | 3501862 Edward Fiatski
Edward Fiatski's picture

Imports & gov't are down - I'd say this is a good print. :)

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 08:56 | 3501864 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

 

 

Paper PM immediate uptick - MOAR Bux please, Mr. the Bernank!

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 08:59 | 3501874 mdtrader
mdtrader's picture

Just out of curiosity. Does anybody really believe they can calculate GDP accurately anyway on a $15 trillion economy? Think of all the moving parts that go into an economy of that size and remember the government can't even count its own employee numbers correctly, so the chances it track an economy of this size and produce figures that are accurate to a tenth of a percent is a nonsense. My guess is the marging of error on these numbers is at least + or - 3%.

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 09:43 | 3502078 hooligan2009
hooligan2009's picture

16 trillion economy...

economics is an art not a science..even its measureument, as you point out, is an extrapolation of samples and GIGO numbers; hence the need for three or four revisions to data.

same goes for fiscal numbers...budget estimates v actuals gaps of 1% are well within the margin for error.

i am still trying to get my head round the upcoming revisions to GDP that will count contributions from the entertainment industry differently and that are going to revise all gdp back to 1929...

should  we use GDP as a scorecard/snapshot..or should we just use the trends in GDP and apply a dose of common sense to these.

if you can work this out, look good and complete a PhD, there are wall street banksters that will employ you on 7 figure compensation.

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 09:50 | 3502116 adr
adr's picture

Do you think we actually have a $15 trillion economy?

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 08:57 | 3501877 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Tyler what are you trying to do to me with 'Hook up with exotic Latin beauties'? Yea, some of em are pretty hot, but they'll CUT you!

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 09:45 | 3502056 hooligan2009
hooligan2009's picture

you have been cheating on the flock again !! the ads track your surfing habits..

sheeple tracking can be a good market predictor though:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-22293693

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 08:57 | 3501879 hooligan2009
hooligan2009's picture

ok, so over the last three years

govt consumption is a drag on growth

personal consumption is a big boost

there is a rogue drop in imports in 4q2012 (cancellation of boeing 737 orders?wtf?)

fixed investment is a positive and inventories are a wash.

in other words, there is investment for the future, comsumers are spending loads of money and the government deficit is contracting...yeah right.

where does the additional 2 trillion of fed spending go (12.5% of gdp)? 

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 08:59 | 3501894 Bearwagon
Bearwagon's picture

Deleveraging of shadowbanks?

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 09:53 | 3502127 hooligan2009
hooligan2009's picture

could be...or the prop to personal consumption from student loans, 

hard to see how increase in SNAP, welfare payments, increases in federal, state and city taxes, high gasoline prices plus a host of other pressures on consumers results in steady increases in PCE's

seems like price increases in staples are being included in spending numbers and not inflation numbers...errors and misinformation.

positives could be spending of increased dividends (the stock market rises are the result of balance sheet restruturing?) or people with more money to spend because they have refinanced their mortgages?

where are the numbers for refi mortgage data, yanno, amount of mortgage principal outstanding at what rate in 31 March 2007 v 31 March 2013? (march year ends for trends etc).

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 08:58 | 3501889 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

What are "savings"?

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 09:18 | 3501971 CURWAR2012
CURWAR2012's picture

It is future stimulus as apposed to present stimulus. Savings is not, it repeat not, investment. You must not save or you will destroy the present prosperity.

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 09:01 | 3501893 BudFox2012
BudFox2012's picture

Personal consumption up huh?  I wonder how many of these dollars was due to the spike in gun and ammo sales. 

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 09:21 | 3501973 forwardho
forwardho's picture

No need to wonder.

It cannot be bought in bulk at any price.

Your "personal consumption" of these products has been curtailed.

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 16:02 | 3503666 MisterMousePotato
MisterMousePotato's picture

Cabela reported something yesterday. Whatever it was, it caused their stock to go up. 16% after hours. Had something to do with sales, I think. Hm. Wonder what they sell ... ?

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 09:02 | 3501896 Manipuflation
Manipuflation's picture

The global economy's future explained in an 18 second youtube video.  "DUDE!"

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0zioMFv2_pk

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 09:02 | 3501899 ejmoosa
ejmoosa's picture

Not mentiioned at all-  Corporate profits AFTER taxes fell in the 4th quarter of 2012 by 1.12% from the same quarter in 2013.

 

And you wonder why businesses are putting on the brakes?

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 09:01 | 3501903 MFLTucson
MFLTucson's picture

When your sole focus is on disarming the people, lying to them and empowering Muslins, this comes as no surprise.  As planned in other words.  Time to get rid of this joke!

Would like to know what % of this miserable report is attributable to DHS bullet purchase?  

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 09:07 | 3501913 sawman
sawman's picture

Just another pointless set of figures that are manipulated to print where they want them to to move te markets where they want. Bit like the swinging shiny watch of the hypnotist as he puts the masses under. Look into my eyes!

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 09:04 | 3501914 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Where is the aspirational consumer??
Peasants are not consuming and getting fat at the ordained rate.
We must try different tactics....."consume now or get priced out!"

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 09:07 | 3501918 FreeNewEnergy
FreeNewEnergy's picture

And, if consumer prices are higher by 2.5 or 3 or 4 percent (or higher), is the economy really growing? I would like to see unit sales of particular items, like food, energy, autos, household durables, for instance.

It's like the housing "recovery" which shows fewer sales, but at higher prices. No sheet, Sherlock. If interest rates were, say, 1% on a 30-year and the down payment - already at a ridiculous 3% level via FHA - people could once again afford McMansions.

The level of gullibility of supposed "experts" in finance is incredible.

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 09:06 | 3501921 overmedicatedun...
overmedicatedundersexed's picture

why not just print 5%?? WELL THE NUMBER MUST BE ONE SOME OF THE EYES WIDE SHUT CROWD CAN ACCEPT.

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 09:06 | 3501922 Dan The Man
Dan The Man's picture

Prediction

"... a large inventory boost contributing about 1pp to growth."

Reality

 "The reason for the big miss: Inventory..." 

Goldman really dry cakered the muppets on this one.

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 09:12 | 3501946 Racer
Racer's picture

Who cares about the real economy or fundamentals, as long as the Dow and SPit are at all times highs nothing else matters to the 0.1%

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 09:13 | 3501949 Chas434
Chas434's picture

Lets see.   2.5% growth -- 2.5% real inflation.    Statistics don't lie -- Liars use statistics

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 09:16 | 3501950 Ned Zeppelin
Ned Zeppelin's picture

Look - this ain't hard. There is no driver for the growth they are looking for.  No tech boom, no housing boom, not even a natural gas boom.  Overleveraged consumers are not going to pull demand forward.  Housing is only surging in the sense that it has recently regained a pulse after some time on the "suspected dead" list, and the prognosis there is for very slow growth, with highly constrained credit conditions preventing many would be homebuyers from jumping into the pool.  Sure there are pockets of sunshine, but the overall view there is subdued.

The New Normal is very, very slow growth, not enough to feed the highly leveraged and voracious Bankster machine.  Hence, the printing to maintain the facade of growth. It's the FLOW, stupid. Everytime you hear someone say the Fed is thinking about cutting back on printing, it is a lie, pure and simple.  Stop printing, stop the flow, and the game ends.  By the way, it will end anyway, but not before elite pockets are heavily lined.

 

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 09:18 | 3501962 CURWAR2012
CURWAR2012's picture

"it rained like 5 days in March, so there's that."....LMFAO!


Fri, 04/26/2013 - 09:23 | 3501995 FreeNewEnergy
FreeNewEnergy's picture

Correctamundo, Ned. The charts say average GRP "growth" over the past 10 quarters was 1.9%. With inflation higher than that, and US population growth a touch below 1%, we're at stall speed.

Also, that huge personal consumption figure this quarter was made up of what? Higher food, heating and gas prices, likely contributed about 60% of that number. So, great, we're paying more to stay alive, warm and mobile. Whoopie! Break out the party hats!

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 09:25 | 3502001 WTF_247
WTF_247's picture

I would love to see how they think Americans are going to pay the 50-100% premium increases from Obummercare coming up.  These are not small increases - the average family of four would need to come up with an additional 400-500 per month - every month - forever.  Good luck with that.  If the money existed you would see it in the savings rate.

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 09:31 | 3502021 FreeNewEnergy
FreeNewEnergy's picture

Rick Santelli, the only commentator on CNBS who can be trusted to say anything close to the truth, made a good point this morning, wondering if the underground economy was a large contributor to the personal consumption number. But, he also noted that the UE money was not being reported as taxable income.

He may be on to something, there. If I make $300 via a garage sale or on Craigslist, I spend some of it on food, gas, etc. (the rest goes into silver), so, magically, spending shows up without corresponding income.

I'd suggest that the UE, plus food stamps (both spent and fraudulently converted) will continue to be a big driver of GDP. In fact, .gov should increase those limits on SNAP to make the GDP really soar... along with the intangible addition, of course.

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 09:32 | 3502037 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

Oh, yeah..."and Phuck you Goldman Sachs."

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 09:38 | 3502059 WTF_247
WTF_247's picture

Market already in there with the push higher - bidders in there.  I have been trading for over 20 years and never seen anything like we have seen for the last 2 years but especially the last 4 months where 100% of all news is bullish no matter what.  

We are almost to the point where earnings do not even matter - not there yet.  QE pumped to 200B per month would do that - just have the Fed direct bid on every stock every day.  They could levitate Dow to 30k even during a depression.

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 09:40 | 3502063 dobermangang
dobermangang's picture

The economy is bad and getting worse.  In fact it's so bad... I saw an homeless programmer on the street corner holding a sign saying he'd write code for bitcoins. 

It's so bad that.....  the number 1 book on the New York Times best seller list is 101 Hatian Mud Cookie Recipes for Americans.

It's so bad that..... Bill Gates switched to Linux.

It's so bad that ..... the former cast of Jersey Shore is now using the sun to get a tan.

It's so bad that..... everybody is actually looking forward to the high paying job of jury duty.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oShTJ90fC34

 

 

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 16:16 | 3503705 MisterMousePotato
MisterMousePotato's picture

Actually, I think the number one book is The Obamacare Survival Guide.

Yes. That's right, folks. Our healthcare is now something we have to 'survive'.

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 09:54 | 3502143 optionsman
optionsman's picture

if every one expects PCEs to pull back on the margin in 2Q13 that would imply their own marginal reduction or a delay in expenditures be it hiring, inventory plans or fixed investment. so when will the Fed stop, taper or whatever their printing? those who are short duration are going to hurt.......

just saying

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 11:31 | 3502516 hooligan2009
hooligan2009's picture

ponders why any company would invest when the rate of return for the same business risk as always continues to be rock bottom..defer the investment or give it back to shareholders to ...ummm....spend on planes, cars, houses, and ummm junk?

wait..the government (sheeple) own boeing, gm and FHFA already..

guess that just leaves junk..long wally world (and trade deficits) then..vendor financing of samsung and german cars? still we already know the emperors exercise pants are threadbare and social networking will soon contribute massive amounts to GDP..bleh

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