Total US Debt To GDP: 105%

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Now that we have the first estimate of Q1 GDP growth in both rate of change and absolute current dollar terms ($16,010 billion), we can finally assign the appropriate debt number, which we know on a daily basis and which was $16,771.4 billion as of March 31, to the growth number. The end result: as of March 31, 2013, the US debt/GDP was 104.8%, up from 103% as of December 31, 2012 or a debt growth rate that would make the most insolvent Eurozone nation blush. There was a time when people were concerned about this unsustainable trajectory, but then there was an infamous excel error, and now nobody cares anymore.

In fact, moar debt is moar best-er.

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Fri, 04/26/2013 - 09:08 | 3501925 Groundhog Day
Groundhog Day's picture

Well at least their's growth somewhere

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 09:14 | 3501942 Buckaroo Banzai
Buckaroo Banzai's picture

Growth in terror attacks, maybe.

How on earth has this story not been in the national news?

"Investigators are running down leads in an early Sunday shootout between a security officer at Watt Bar Nuclear Plant and an individual who fired multiple shots from a boat on Chickamauga Lake near Spring City, Tenn., property."

http://www.knoxnews.com/news/2013/apr/26/fbi-still-investigating-weekend...

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 09:16 | 3501952 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Are they heading to NY? If so can you please ask them if they are coming to party or attack it. I have tentative plans in NYC this weekend.

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 09:22 | 3501985 Stackers
Stackers's picture

Now subtract $2 trillion from GDP for "imputation" and "redirection" and thats the real number ...... or more like 120% debt to GDP.

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 09:26 | 3501994 Dr. Richard Head
Dr. Richard Head's picture

It really doesn't matter if it is 200% debt/GDP...look at Japan.  You see, it pushes aggregate demand.  Debt does not matter, especially when it comes to government spending.  /sarc

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 11:11 | 3502437 jerry_theking_lawler
jerry_theking_lawler's picture

increase the $$ from intangibles and all will be well

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 11:16 | 3502458 Shocker
Shocker's picture

It is reflected in the current economic situation

Layoff/ Closing List

http://www.dailyjobcuts.com

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Fri, 04/26/2013 - 10:18 | 3502204 JustObserving
JustObserving's picture

Dagong, the Chinese rating agency, claims that US GDP is only about $6 trillion now (they claim it was $5 trillion in 2009).

If we exclude the factor of virtual economy, the U.S. actual GDP is about 5 trillion U.S. dollars in 2009, per capita GDP about $ 15,000.

http://www.businessinsider.com/china-dagong-us-gdp-2010-11#ixzz2RZwq0kxW

 

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 11:48 | 3502576 kchrisc
kchrisc's picture

I can't find the article or link, but sometime last year I read an analysis by a contrarian-economist that highlighted that US GDP is overstated by about 100%

Basically, fix the inflation numbers by using ShadowStats.com's numbers not those from the B(S)LS and then remove government spending from GDP and then reset by 30 or so years and extrapolate forward. The resulting number is about one-half to two-thirds of the current number depending where one draws a few lines. Including gov spending in the GDP equation double counts it--private sector makes it (counted), gov steals it and spends it (counted again).

He then predicted what the new number would mean to certain economic indicators and such like tax (loot) revenue, etc. And the new GDP number was more inline with what was happening there.

I would add that a lot of GDP is for the sake of gov, like tanks, bullets, etc. so one could even imagine GDP even lower than what he estimated.

His conclusion was to not to take his number as gospel but to make people aware that GDP is most certainly overstated and therefore the debt to GDP ratio is much higher than currently computed. That is a bit of a "duh" but it was stark to see it in clear black and white.

       hujel

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 11:16 | 3502457 natronic
natronic's picture

Right it's all mucked up.  I want to figure out where people are getting and espousing the bogus 74% debt to gdp?  This thing is going to blow up bigger than a pressure cooker at an international race.  I feel sorry for those left holding the bag.

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 11:49 | 3502598 Reven
Reven's picture

To be fair there's about a $2 trillion underground economy in the US, drugs, cash only work, etc.

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 09:15 | 3501958 notbot
notbot's picture

Tyler, you must have missed it. Reinhart and Rogoff made an error in Excel.

Ergo, no country in the history of the planet has ever had too much debt.

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 10:27 | 3502244 ParkAveFlasher
ParkAveFlasher's picture

+1

Looks like R&R was a gigantic quasi-mathematical straw man. 

This proves to me that Hanlon's Razor also works when reversed.

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 09:23 | 3501982 dick cheneys ghost
dick cheneys ghost's picture

How about the guy with 2 IED's on a train in jersey? Im not from Jersey, is this normal?

not reported by FBI either?

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 09:34 | 3502034 10mm
10mm's picture

Only in North Jersey.

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 09:43 | 3502077 Smegley Wanxalot
Smegley Wanxalot's picture

If I were in Jersey I'd wanna kill myself too.  But killing others ... datz kinda fucked up man unlessin you kin post it on U-toob baebeee.

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 10:15 | 3502199 pods
pods's picture

Reminds me of the underwear bomber.  Favorite all time quote:

"If I had to fly into Detroit on Christmas I'd set my balls on fire too!"

 

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 10:37 | 3502288 Navymugsy
Navymugsy's picture

"If I had to fly into Detroit on Christmas I'd set my balls on fire too!"

 

That's in the Koran so it must be true!

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 18:32 | 3504124 CalBear
CalBear's picture

That goes directly to the pantheon of all-time greatest lines

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 09:15 | 3501944 A_Dog
A_Dog's picture

 Speaking of growth, is it weird that one of my testicles is larger than the other two?

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 10:39 | 3502290 Bananamerican
Bananamerican's picture

Yes Dog, having three testicles is highly unusual...

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 11:30 | 3502509 fattail
fattail's picture

You should have the large one of the three hedonically smoothed to reduce the inflation of your ball sack.

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 11:56 | 3502639 kwality
kwality's picture

It depends, have you been swimming in the Pacific Ocean lately?

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 09:15 | 3501948 Rainman
Rainman's picture

It will only improve from here. ObamaScare will be the mega-debt super-turbocharger !

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 10:16 | 3502206 pods
pods's picture

I gotta reinforce my rear end just to handle that.

pods

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 09:14 | 3501955 BLOTTO
BLOTTO's picture

Lets get real right now - this debt, any countries debt, is never and not meant to be paid off.

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 09:26 | 3501993 Stackers
Stackers's picture

more to the point it can never be paid off without reducing the money supply by the same amount and causing a deflationary depression.

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 09:31 | 3502029 AnAnonymous
AnAnonymous's picture

Lets get real right now - this debt, any countries debt, is never and not meant to be paid off.
_________________

Oh, no. Certain countries' debt was meant to be paid off.

'American' countries' debt is meant not to be paid off. The 'american' countries wanted their debt to be so big it could not be repaid on a global scale.

Other countries, it is all part of the 'american'business of extorting the weak, farming the poor.

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 09:36 | 3502054 madcows
madcows's picture

No, but the bond holders who lend them the money want to know if the payments are going to be made on time....

tick tick tick tick

 

 

 

 

 

 

BOOOOOM!!!!!!!!!!!! mutha fucka

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 09:39 | 3502062 Iconoclast
Iconoclast's picture

At some point if it keeps being socialised and folk get no wage rises, 100% of their pay chq will go on tax before they have anything left for basics, let alone luxuries...

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 09:23 | 3501980 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

Didn't they say that as long as it stays below 950% of GDP, that there's no real problem?

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 09:59 | 3502154 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

You have not been paying close enough attention.  It does not matter the number.  Not 90%, not 900%, not 9000%. 

We are all treating ourselves much worse than we need to.  The government could make this country a veritable economic paradise if they just opened up their wallet and started spending more. 

I say THANK GOD they caught that spreadsheet error.  We can finally dispense with the fiction of needing to live withing your means and get down to the much needed business of HELPING PEOPLE.

<I am Dr. Paul Krugman and I approve this message.>

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 11:38 | 3502538 zerozulu
zerozulu's picture

Soon American public will be allowed to print their own money too because It is getting a bit of hassle to the fed.

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 09:47 | 3502099 azzhatter
azzhatter's picture

I see what you did there Tyler, not counting those unfunded liabilities. Debt to GDP is closer to 1000/1

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 10:50 | 3502341 Che Guevara is Dead
Che Guevara is Dead's picture

I notice the price of Colt's AR-15 6920 LE (Law enforcement edition) is selling for over $1700 on Gunbroker. That's half a grand higher than it was going for pre-Sandy Hook. 

Guns are up. Ammo is up. Gold is up. Don't know the price of Russian hookers but I suspect they're up too. 

Let the good times roll...

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 14:34 | 3503341 Rick Blaine
Rick Blaine's picture

For a few weeks after the shooting, 6920s were going for over $3K on gunbroker...it was insane.

...but things have calmed down quite a bit since then...for some items.  I can obtain 6920s for pretty much "regular" prices now.

During the peak of the craziness, I saw a pair of Noveske gen 2 stripped lowers w/consec serial numbers go for $2626 - just absurd.

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 11:30 | 3502511 Saint Pitbull
Saint Pitbull's picture

It is MUCH greater than 105%.  Throw in:

- the unfunded pensions that the US federal gov't will pick up

- the state and city bankruptcies, that are already starting (e.g., Stockton)

- other unfunded state obligations that will be picked up at the federal level (yes, Texas - you will be paying for California, Illinois, Mass., etc...)

- the student loan bomb (over 25% have non-payments 90+ days old) and its getting worse as any dog shampooing college helps you will out the required loan paperwork

- you just KNOW that we will get involved in another undeclared war

- the slightest uptick in interest rates will reverberate like it's in an echo chamber

There, that's another 5 - 6 TRILLION.  That puts Debt:GDP over 150%.  And I'm being optimistic.

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 15:01 | 3503483 KnightTakesKing
KnightTakesKing's picture

It's when (not if) the federal government tries to take on the debts of these deadbeat states that the Red States will begin serious talks about session. Fun times ahead ZeroHead'ers.

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 13:21 | 3503063 RafterManFMJ
RafterManFMJ's picture

*Raises fist in the air* USA! USA! USA!

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 09:11 | 3501926 JP McManus
JP McManus's picture

#winning

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 09:17 | 3501957 TeamDepends
TeamDepends's picture

105 out of 100= A++!

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 09:22 | 3501986 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

well... just like the "No Child Left Behind" WE NOW HAVE "NO COUNTRY LEFT BEHIND" SO IT DOESN'T MATTER ANYMORE WHAT RATING OR SCORE YOU HAVE!!

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 09:26 | 3502005 TeamDepends
TeamDepends's picture

W got all teary yesterday when he remembered he wasn't able to complete his No Child Left scorched-earth policies...

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 13:27 | 3503088 RafterManFMJ
RafterManFMJ's picture

105 out of 100= A++!

We got every one of the extra credit questions!

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 09:18 | 3501959 Buckaroo Banzai
Buckaroo Banzai's picture

Gone from 75% to 105% under Obama's watch.

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 09:21 | 3501983 Richard Chesler
Richard Chesler's picture

Forward.

He meant the debt.

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 09:25 | 3501990 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Oh.....then he's clearly winning.

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 09:46 | 3502108 azzhatter
azzhatter's picture

So is Dimon, Blankfuck, Buffett et al

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 09:25 | 3501992 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

HE DIDN'T BUILD THOSE DEBT CEILINGS!!

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 09:09 | 3501930 doomandbloom
doomandbloom's picture

One who dies with the most Debt, wins

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