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Total US Debt To GDP: 105%

Tyler Durden's picture





 

Now that we have the first estimate of Q1 GDP growth in both rate of change and absolute current dollar terms ($16,010 billion), we can finally assign the appropriate debt number, which we know on a daily basis and which was $16,771.4 billion as of March 31, to the growth number. The end result: as of March 31, 2013, the US debt/GDP was 104.8%, up from 103% as of December 31, 2012 or a debt growth rate that would make the most insolvent Eurozone nation blush. There was a time when people were concerned about this unsustainable trajectory, but then there was an infamous excel error, and now nobody cares anymore.

In fact, moar debt is moar best-er.

 


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Fri, 04/26/2013 - 09:08 | Link to Comment Groundhog Day
Groundhog Day's picture

Well at least their's growth somewhere

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 09:14 | Link to Comment Buckaroo Banzai
Buckaroo Banzai's picture

Growth in terror attacks, maybe.

How on earth has this story not been in the national news?

"Investigators are running down leads in an early Sunday shootout between a security officer at Watt Bar Nuclear Plant and an individual who fired multiple shots from a boat on Chickamauga Lake near Spring City, Tenn., property."

http://www.knoxnews.com/news/2013/apr/26/fbi-still-investigating-weekend...

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 09:16 | Link to Comment fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Are they heading to NY? If so can you please ask them if they are coming to party or attack it. I have tentative plans in NYC this weekend.

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 09:22 | Link to Comment Stackers
Stackers's picture

Now subtract $2 trillion from GDP for "imputation" and "redirection" and thats the real number ...... or more like 120% debt to GDP.

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 09:26 | Link to Comment Dr. Richard Head
Dr. Richard Head's picture

It really doesn't matter if it is 200% debt/GDP...look at Japan.  You see, it pushes aggregate demand.  Debt does not matter, especially when it comes to government spending.  /sarc

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 09:45 | Link to Comment negative rates
negative rates's picture

Without adding the unfunded liabilities, today's stats are a complete and utter JOKE! Just as it was meant to be.

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 11:11 | Link to Comment jerry_theking_lawler
jerry_theking_lawler's picture

increase the $$ from intangibles and all will be well

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 11:16 | Link to Comment Shocker
Shocker's picture

It is reflected in the current economic situation

Layoff/ Closing List

http://www.dailyjobcuts.com

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Fri, 04/26/2013 - 10:18 | Link to Comment JustObserving
JustObserving's picture

Dagong, the Chinese rating agency, claims that US GDP is only about $6 trillion now (they claim it was $5 trillion in 2009).

If we exclude the factor of virtual economy, the U.S. actual GDP is about 5 trillion U.S. dollars in 2009, per capita GDP about $ 15,000.

http://www.businessinsider.com/china-dagong-us-gdp-2010-11#ixzz2RZwq0kxW

 

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 11:48 | Link to Comment kchrisc
kchrisc's picture

I can't find the article or link, but sometime last year I read an analysis by a contrarian-economist that highlighted that US GDP is overstated by about 100%

Basically, fix the inflation numbers by using ShadowStats.com's numbers not those from the B(S)LS and then remove government spending from GDP and then reset by 30 or so years and extrapolate forward. The resulting number is about one-half to two-thirds of the current number depending where one draws a few lines. Including gov spending in the GDP equation double counts it--private sector makes it (counted), gov steals it and spends it (counted again).

He then predicted what the new number would mean to certain economic indicators and such like tax (loot) revenue, etc. And the new GDP number was more inline with what was happening there.

I would add that a lot of GDP is for the sake of gov, like tanks, bullets, etc. so one could even imagine GDP even lower than what he estimated.

His conclusion was to not to take his number as gospel but to make people aware that GDP is most certainly overstated and therefore the debt to GDP ratio is much higher than currently computed. That is a bit of a "duh" but it was stark to see it in clear black and white.

       hujel

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 11:16 | Link to Comment natronic
natronic's picture

Right it's all mucked up.  I want to figure out where people are getting and espousing the bogus 74% debt to gdp?  This thing is going to blow up bigger than a pressure cooker at an international race.  I feel sorry for those left holding the bag.

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 11:49 | Link to Comment Reven
Reven's picture

To be fair there's about a $2 trillion underground economy in the US, drugs, cash only work, etc.

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 09:15 | Link to Comment notbot
notbot's picture

Tyler, you must have missed it. Reinhart and Rogoff made an error in Excel.

Ergo, no country in the history of the planet has ever had too much debt.

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 10:27 | Link to Comment ParkAveFlasher
ParkAveFlasher's picture

+1

Looks like R&R was a gigantic quasi-mathematical straw man. 

This proves to me that Hanlon's Razor also works when reversed.

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 09:23 | Link to Comment dick cheneys ghost
dick cheneys ghost's picture

How about the guy with 2 IED's on a train in jersey? Im not from Jersey, is this normal?

not reported by FBI either?

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 09:34 | Link to Comment 10mm
10mm's picture

Only in North Jersey.

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 09:43 | Link to Comment Smegley Wanxalot
Smegley Wanxalot's picture

If I were in Jersey I'd wanna kill myself too.  But killing others ... datz kinda fucked up man unlessin you kin post it on U-toob baebeee.

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 10:15 | Link to Comment pods
pods's picture

Reminds me of the underwear bomber.  Favorite all time quote:

"If I had to fly into Detroit on Christmas I'd set my balls on fire too!"

 

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 10:37 | Link to Comment Navymugsy
Navymugsy's picture

"If I had to fly into Detroit on Christmas I'd set my balls on fire too!"

 

That's in the Koran so it must be true!

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 18:32 | Link to Comment CalBear
CalBear's picture

That goes directly to the pantheon of all-time greatest lines

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 09:15 | Link to Comment A_Dog
A_Dog's picture

 Speaking of growth, is it weird that one of my testicles is larger than the other two?

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 10:39 | Link to Comment Bananamerican
Bananamerican's picture

Yes Dog, having three testicles is highly unusual...

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 11:30 | Link to Comment fattail
fattail's picture

You should have the large one of the three hedonically smoothed to reduce the inflation of your ball sack.

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 11:56 | Link to Comment kwality
kwality's picture

It depends, have you been swimming in the Pacific Ocean lately?

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 09:15 | Link to Comment Rainman
Rainman's picture

It will only improve from here. ObamaScare will be the mega-debt super-turbocharger !

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 10:16 | Link to Comment pods
pods's picture

I gotta reinforce my rear end just to handle that.

pods

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 09:14 | Link to Comment BLOTTO
BLOTTO's picture

Lets get real right now - this debt, any countries debt, is never and not meant to be paid off.

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 09:26 | Link to Comment Stackers
Stackers's picture

more to the point it can never be paid off without reducing the money supply by the same amount and causing a deflationary depression.

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 09:31 | Link to Comment AnAnonymous
AnAnonymous's picture

Lets get real right now - this debt, any countries debt, is never and not meant to be paid off.
_________________

Oh, no. Certain countries' debt was meant to be paid off.

'American' countries' debt is meant not to be paid off. The 'american' countries wanted their debt to be so big it could not be repaid on a global scale.

Other countries, it is all part of the 'american'business of extorting the weak, farming the poor.

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 09:36 | Link to Comment madcows
madcows's picture

No, but the bond holders who lend them the money want to know if the payments are going to be made on time....

tick tick tick tick

 

 

 

 

 

 

BOOOOOM!!!!!!!!!!!! mutha fucka

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 09:49 | Link to Comment negative rates
negative rates's picture

You forget that bondy by his law rightfully chooses who takes the hit before he does, and guess what, everything goes before his rule breaks his back.

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 09:39 | Link to Comment Iconoclast
Iconoclast's picture

At some point if it keeps being socialised and folk get no wage rises, 100% of their pay chq will go on tax before they have anything left for basics, let alone luxuries...

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 09:23 | Link to Comment Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

Didn't they say that as long as it stays below 950% of GDP, that there's no real problem?

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 09:59 | Link to Comment NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

You have not been paying close enough attention.  It does not matter the number.  Not 90%, not 900%, not 9000%. 

We are all treating ourselves much worse than we need to.  The government could make this country a veritable economic paradise if they just opened up their wallet and started spending more. 

I say THANK GOD they caught that spreadsheet error.  We can finally dispense with the fiction of needing to live withing your means and get down to the much needed business of HELPING PEOPLE.

<I am Dr. Paul Krugman and I approve this message.>

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 11:38 | Link to Comment zerozulu
zerozulu's picture

Soon American public will be allowed to print their own money too because It is getting a bit of hassle to the fed.

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 09:47 | Link to Comment azzhatter
azzhatter's picture

I see what you did there Tyler, not counting those unfunded liabilities. Debt to GDP is closer to 1000/1

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 10:50 | Link to Comment Che Guevara is Dead
Che Guevara is Dead's picture

I notice the price of Colt's AR-15 6920 LE (Law enforcement edition) is selling for over $1700 on Gunbroker. That's half a grand higher than it was going for pre-Sandy Hook. 

Guns are up. Ammo is up. Gold is up. Don't know the price of Russian hookers but I suspect they're up too. 

Let the good times roll...

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 14:34 | Link to Comment Rick Blaine
Rick Blaine's picture

For a few weeks after the shooting, 6920s were going for over $3K on gunbroker...it was insane.

...but things have calmed down quite a bit since then...for some items.  I can obtain 6920s for pretty much "regular" prices now.

During the peak of the craziness, I saw a pair of Noveske gen 2 stripped lowers w/consec serial numbers go for $2626 - just absurd.

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 11:30 | Link to Comment Saint Pitbull
Saint Pitbull's picture

It is MUCH greater than 105%.  Throw in:

- the unfunded pensions that the US federal gov't will pick up

- the state and city bankruptcies, that are already starting (e.g., Stockton)

- other unfunded state obligations that will be picked up at the federal level (yes, Texas - you will be paying for California, Illinois, Mass., etc...)

- the student loan bomb (over 25% have non-payments 90+ days old) and its getting worse as any dog shampooing college helps you will out the required loan paperwork

- you just KNOW that we will get involved in another undeclared war

- the slightest uptick in interest rates will reverberate like it's in an echo chamber

There, that's another 5 - 6 TRILLION.  That puts Debt:GDP over 150%.  And I'm being optimistic.

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 15:01 | Link to Comment KnightTakesKing
KnightTakesKing's picture

It's when (not if) the federal government tries to take on the debts of these deadbeat states that the Red States will begin serious talks about session. Fun times ahead ZeroHead'ers.

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 13:21 | Link to Comment RafterManFMJ
RafterManFMJ's picture

*Raises fist in the air* USA! USA! USA!

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 09:11 | Link to Comment JP McManus
JP McManus's picture

#winning

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 09:17 | Link to Comment TeamDepends
TeamDepends's picture

105 out of 100= A++!

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 09:22 | Link to Comment Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

well... just like the "No Child Left Behind" WE NOW HAVE "NO COUNTRY LEFT BEHIND" SO IT DOESN'T MATTER ANYMORE WHAT RATING OR SCORE YOU HAVE!!

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 09:26 | Link to Comment TeamDepends
TeamDepends's picture

W got all teary yesterday when he remembered he wasn't able to complete his No Child Left scorched-earth policies...

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 09:52 | Link to Comment negative rates
negative rates's picture

That wantin it, he finally relized that his administration was lying the whole time, and now that's what the future holds for America. He was crying because he missed out on the fun at the time he was in charge. But his future looks bright?

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 13:27 | Link to Comment RafterManFMJ
RafterManFMJ's picture

105 out of 100= A++!

We got every one of the extra credit questions!

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 09:18 | Link to Comment Buckaroo Banzai
Buckaroo Banzai's picture

Gone from 75% to 105% under Obama's watch.

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 09:21 | Link to Comment Richard Chesler
Richard Chesler's picture

Forward.

He meant the debt.

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 09:25 | Link to Comment GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Oh.....then he's clearly winning.

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 09:46 | Link to Comment azzhatter
azzhatter's picture

So is Dimon, Blankfuck, Buffett et al

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 09:25 | Link to Comment Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

HE DIDN'T BUILD THOSE DEBT CEILINGS!!

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 09:09 | Link to Comment doomandbloom
doomandbloom's picture

One who dies with the most Debt, wins

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 09:39 | Link to Comment Oldwood
Oldwood's picture

We used to have international competition in trade but now it is in debt. As you say, he who has the greatest debt wins, but even if they aren't dead. Actually they can never die because we all be zombies now! Never pay off the debt, simply feed it the vig. When we are all broke, who will be the first to demand payment when we know the same could be done to us? Zombies, we're all zombies. Like in the show "the walking dead" even those unbitten will still come back to life if they "die". We are all infected. I know everyone is hoping for some grand reset but I think we will likely just become zombies instead, living off the flesh of others. Think "redistribution".

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 10:23 | Link to Comment tarsubil
tarsubil's picture

Hey buddy, I haven't downloaded the second season yet. Thanks for ruining it for me.

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 10:38 | Link to Comment Oldwood
Oldwood's picture

Sorry about that, but it really wasn't all that hard to ruin. I hate it when I start rooting for the zombies.

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 09:10 | Link to Comment MFLTucson
MFLTucson's picture

So we spent 6 trillion to get a 2.5% growth and most if not all is abased upon aseasonal accounting adjustment.  This is disgusting!

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 09:28 | Link to Comment CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

No.

He spent much more than that.

He borrowed 6 Trillion of what was spent.

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 10:21 | Link to Comment Oldwood
Oldwood's picture

So thats like free money. right?

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 09:10 | Link to Comment nomorebuyins
nomorebuyins's picture

All charts must go up! Yaaay!

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 09:11 | Link to Comment Bearwagon
Bearwagon's picture

Kenneth and Rogoff: You're fucked!

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 09:14 | Link to Comment broken87
broken87's picture

WE WIN AMERICA ROOLS

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 09:17 | Link to Comment Groundhog Day
Groundhog Day's picture

  I'M THE WOLF" "KING KONG AIN"Y GOT SHIT ON ME!"

Densel Washington...Training Day

I thought it applied here to US debt

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 09:12 | Link to Comment overmedicatedun...
overmedicatedundersexed's picture

feel like the poor friend of mine, who has a wife that can't stop spending on the credit cards..we all have a silent partner (.gov) who even if you are like me with no personal debt, still got that debt that we all owe as a nation while the sluts in DC spend us into ultimate debt.

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 09:18 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Yea and they give speeches telling you unfortunately you've just got to pull up your bootstraps and tighten your belt and also give up some more civil liberties....'for your own good'.

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 09:32 | Link to Comment Beam Me Up Scotty
Beam Me Up Scotty's picture

You should send part of your paycheck to your friend so he can pay his wifes credit card bill.  Thats what .gov is asking the workers of this country to do right now! In fact, someday soon, it will be like your friend telling you that you need to send your whole paycheck to him so he can pay his credit card bills.  He will tell you that while you stare at the end of the barrel of his gun.  Thats a simplistic version of what .gov is doing to us now.

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 11:40 | Link to Comment zerozulu
zerozulu's picture

So you mean having another passport is like a pre nep?

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 12:14 | Link to Comment kchrisc
kchrisc's picture

Right now we are "free-roaming" farm animals who get milked often enough, but soon they'll pin us and attach us directly to the plow or eat us.         hujel

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 09:16 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Charts....Must....Go....Up....

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 09:19 | Link to Comment orangedrinkandchips
orangedrinkandchips's picture

Let's treat it as fractional reserve banking!!

 

We only need really 10% of our debt backed by GDP.....so load up!

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 09:18 | Link to Comment waterwitch
waterwitch's picture

ctrl-P it away...there fixed it for ya.

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 09:20 | Link to Comment ether
ether's picture

Quantitative Thrusting.  

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 09:46 | Link to Comment ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Dry humping?

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 09:22 | Link to Comment ptoemmes
ptoemmes's picture

If debt were to increase a lot and GDP were tank moar, that curve could go parabolic.  A beautiful thang. I say go fer it.

/sarc

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 09:22 | Link to Comment venturen
venturen's picture

I guess cooking the books back to 1920 didn't help that much.

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 09:20 | Link to Comment Sandmann
Sandmann's picture

Guess this is an empirical study for Reinhard and Rogoff to collect more data points.  Was Paul Volcker the last sane man to be Fed Governor ?

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 10:30 | Link to Comment ParkAveFlasher
ParkAveFlasher's picture

IMO the position is itself insane.  Interest rates imply money creation from thin air.  He just did the math that needed to be done right there to kick the can 35 years down the road. 

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 09:20 | Link to Comment Stuck on Zero
Stuck on Zero's picture

In rebuttal I quote Dick Cheney:

"Deficits don't matter."

 

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 09:22 | Link to Comment wcvarones
wcvarones's picture

HAHAHAHAHA

 

The BEA is going to add 3% to GDP for R&D.  So it's only 102% now, losers!

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 09:27 | Link to Comment Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

WHY NOT USE THE MILITAIRY EXPENSES ALSO AS GDP???!!???

BUILDING DEBT IS ALSO A ACTIVITY!!

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 10:48 | Link to Comment Cthonic
Cthonic's picture

What, you want to count it twice?

 

GDP = private consumption + gross investment + government spending + (exports - imports)

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 09:25 | Link to Comment orangedrinkandchips
orangedrinkandchips's picture

QUESTION:

All of the following are NOT allowed by logic/common sense to expand forever EXCEPT????

 

 

A.) Debt

B.) Fiat money supply

C.) American's waiste lines!!!

D.) The Universe

 

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 09:25 | Link to Comment AnAnonymous
AnAnonymous's picture

'Americanism' requires a suspension of logics and/or common sense.

This is an 'american' world, and the future is 'american'.

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 10:15 | Link to Comment TheFourthStooge-ing
TheFourthStooge-ing's picture

.

'Americanism' requires a suspension of logics and/or common sense.

Well, then, you've certainly embraced your 'Americanism' with both arms, little buddy. You didn't just suspend logic and common sense, you've enthusiastically abandoned them. That is known as a great leap forward.

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 09:28 | Link to Comment Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

my dick.

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 09:51 | Link to Comment ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

The Universe, because it is infinite.

Of course, if you believe in the infinity loop (sideways 8), infinite must join finite (or nothingness) in order to expand to infinite again.

So, more debt must be a way to get to no debt, and when we get there we will find Schroedinger's cat chasing it's tail, and Krugman's beard quoting Ludwig Von Mises.

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 10:42 | Link to Comment IridiumRebel
IridiumRebel's picture

E.) Krugman's bullshit

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 09:25 | Link to Comment CheapBastard
CheapBastard's picture

'Run, Forest, Run !!'

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 09:24 | Link to Comment Decimus Lunius ...
Decimus Lunius Luvenalis's picture

I'm sure there is R&D to capitalize and Barry's "Goodwill" is surely undervalued.  If that doesn't work, I'm sure there's a typo somewhere is some spreadsheet at some agency to blame.  Fiat currency means fiat debt.  That is, fiat debt for the government, its cronies, and the banking sector.  It means debtor's prison or debt-serfdom for the rest of us. 

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 09:26 | Link to Comment AnAnonymous
AnAnonymous's picture

Who cares?

Only two variables matter:
-the rate the US can create trillions.
-the amount of resources to be bought with those trillions.

The day extorted and farmed run out of wealth to be extorted and farmed, 'Americans' and their ganglord will have to care.

Until that stage, located beyond the lifespan of mere mortals born before 2000, there is no point in caring.

Rule 'America', rule the bank
'Americans' shall never yank

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 10:52 | Link to Comment TheFourthStooge-ing
TheFourthStooge-ing's picture

.

Until that stage, located beyond the lifespan of mere mortals born before 2000, there is no point in caring.

Stating a statement as factual does not, in fact, make the stated statement a fact. Repeation of flying rickshaw crystal ball prognostication does not lend soliditude.

This guy comments a windbag of fairy tales, always pouring unsupported assertions with never a ground of evidences. He relishes swimming often into this non sense so it must yield him comforts and satisfactions primitively.

Asking this guy to support his assertions with evidences, well, he just craps on the curb and then flings it with dung hand forcefully.

Funny how Chinese citizenism citizens can not suspend their duplicity for ten minutes. They have to display it permanently.

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 09:25 | Link to Comment orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

The Ben and Barry Plan.

 

WWWWWEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!!!!!!   Do it again uncle Ben.  Do it again uncle Barry.

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 10:31 | Link to Comment fuu
fuu's picture

What's with the perfectly square sections of that chart? Missing data points?

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 09:32 | Link to Comment dolph9
dolph9's picture

According to Krugman and the debt junkies, debt doesn't matter because you, as a working slave, will pay it off, and your children, as working slaves, will pay it off.

In America it's always about the future, about tomorrow.

It's never about today, about what's good for today.  If it was about today, half of what you see around you wouldn't even exist.

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 09:32 | Link to Comment AnAnonymous
AnAnonymous's picture

'Americans' are the way of the future, 'americanism' is the way to go.

'America',kicking the can since 1776, July, 4th...

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 10:40 | Link to Comment IridiumRebel
IridiumRebel's picture

in chinese culture during the "Great Leap Forward" and "Cultural Revolution" people would rat out friends, family and neighbors to look good for the party. Those people were termed "an anonymous" as the person was so fucking gutless, they would never show their face or let it be known who they were. This makes sense as the regime was starving 50-75 million people in their failed socialist/communist policies and would torture and kill anyone who opposed them so basically all Chinese became rats. It's in your wiring now to be gutless rats. Also during that time, people became so hungry that they ate their own children and cooked in their urine just to get nutrients. Your putrid society is no model for anything.

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 09:30 | Link to Comment JailBank
JailBank's picture

Where is Krugman to explain to us how this is actually good?

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 09:32 | Link to Comment NoWayJose
NoWayJose's picture

Debt is never unsustainable in today's world as long as treasuries issue it and central banks buy it!

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 09:36 | Link to Comment AnAnonymous
AnAnonymous's picture

In an 'american' world, debt is not meant to be sustainable.

Debt is a tool for increase consumption and ensures that no one withdraws before depletion of resources.

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 10:34 | Link to Comment IridiumRebel
IridiumRebel's picture

debt is slavery

nuff' said

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 09:40 | Link to Comment One World Mafia
One World Mafia's picture

Fear not. Govt to the rescue.

Govt is revising the methodology for computing GDP - already massaged to look better - in order to inflate the GDP number. First in the world to do so. It will make the debt and inflation numbers look smaller.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g5OfBxk00LI

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 09:42 | Link to Comment autofixer
autofixer's picture

Does this mean EBTs will be charged on the 1st?  Oh, then who cares?

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 09:42 | Link to Comment Satan
Satan's picture

When the day of the great reckoning comes, we shall simply turn our Bloomberg terminals upside down.

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 10:14 | Link to Comment yogibear
yogibear's picture

Bernanke and the Fed keep on accelerating towards that reckoning.

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 09:49 | Link to Comment ak_khanna
ak_khanna's picture

Countries around the world are taking on more debt without any fruitful attempts to curb their expenditures. This has resulted in a much more fragile and artificially held up financial system which is on a much shaky ground than it was in 2008. In 2008 companies failed due to excessive leverage and debt and now countries are likely to default because they took on the same bad debt on themselves. 

There is no economic recovery because all the efforts of politicians, government, central banks etc are focused on saving banks instead of targeting job creation which is the only way economy can recover. 

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article35345.html
www.letstalkmoney2012.in

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 09:51 | Link to Comment Cone of Uncertainty
Cone of Uncertainty's picture

It must really suck to be a socialist fuckstain these days, having to fight a ratio where the numerator is skyrocketing and the denominator is falling like a stone.

 

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 09:58 | Link to Comment Cycle
Cycle's picture

Government debt is simply taxation postponed to the future. There has to be something wrong with taxing future voters that did not vote for those taxes. Time travel robbery comes to mind as a good descriptor.

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 10:29 | Link to Comment Ponzi Pontiff
Ponzi Pontiff's picture

Inter-generational theft.

Or, in the vernacular, shitfuckery.

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 10:17 | Link to Comment Money 4 Nothing
Money 4 Nothing's picture

We have to run deficit to print money. All corporations are flush with cash including the US of fucking A. Were not broke, just in debt up to our eyeballs. Everything will be just fine....

A snake eating its own tail is not considered a nutritious meal.

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 10:15 | Link to Comment yogibear
yogibear's picture

Quick, more and more QE, Bernank, Evans, Dudley and Yellen. 

Buy up the accelerating debt until you get a currency crisis.

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 10:16 | Link to Comment Cone of Uncertainty
Cone of Uncertainty's picture

Can someone please update this chart with ALL the nations off-balance sheet liabilities, I don't have time to dick around with meaningless, pro-forma bullshit.

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 12:39 | Link to Comment sbenard
sbenard's picture

Good point! But it would go off the page. It would probably even burst through the webpage! And once we take that into account, there's no other conclusion than this one: We're screwed!

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 10:14 | Link to Comment evernewecon
evernewecon's picture

 

 


Should’ve listened to the folks Blbrg/Qn wouldn’t allow

to exercise their rights.   This is a Ponzi scheme and compulsive

gambling in monopoly of the currency form (that’s what TBTF is

when it own monetary policy) and monopoly in health care

(yes ObamaCare replaces now you see it now you don’t health

insurance with risk/chance owned entirely to serve the ability to

charge based on the ability to pay with one’s own taxes serving

that structure and helping capture the shifted costs that were

always shifted from the uninsured but which now conform to

a monopolistic regimen.)

 


http://www.multiurl.com/ga/globalwarmingandfishcollapse 

(no spam present)

 

I actually see no problem with prioritizing small royalty holders

onshore.   Beyond them we simply don’t need half the refineries/storage tanks.

(And what the heck do we do with the millions of soldiers/spies?)


Fri, 04/26/2013 - 10:36 | Link to Comment Oldwood
Oldwood's picture

So there is just no winning on this. If its warming its global warming. If its colder its global warming. Its starting to feel like those people who see Jesus's face in a piece of burnt toast. Ideologies are so strong that every weather event is proof of the hand of God...ah, no, wrong ideology...the proof of man caused global warming. The real problem is that too many people are letting their ideology interpret everything they observe, rather than using open minded rationality. My carpenter father used to say that anyone could do it right, but you had to be really good to do it wrong and make it look right. So many of these scientists are really smart and they work so very hard to come up with rational scientific theories to support their views, but maybe we should look at any ideological perspective with a substantial amount of skepticism. We lived for thousands of years convinced by the brightest minds on earth that our Earth was flat and that the sun revolved about us, so please forgive my skepticism of scientific knowledge.

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 11:23 | Link to Comment writingsonthewall
writingsonthewall's picture

We lived for thousands of years convinced by the brightest minds on earth that our Earth was flat and that the sun revolved about us, so please forgive my skepticism of scientific knowledge.

The scietific method started the end of the flat earth theory - since it's development there have only been religious nut cases who still professed to the world being flat. Indeed Greek philosophers had already stated the case for the earth being round - to the dislike of the rulers of the time.

So your claim that 'the brightest minds' believed the world was flat is not true. This is what happens when you mix up fact with crap you hear in the local bar.

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 13:03 | Link to Comment Oldwood
Oldwood's picture

And scientists have never been wrong since! I suppose unless you are an official "scientist" you cannot be considered "bright"? My point is that there a plenty of smart people out there, but just being smart does not mean you cannot also be biased, or simply recognize confronting a popular theme could be hazardous to their paycheck. Yes even science suffers fashion.

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 10:26 | Link to Comment rosiescenario
rosiescenario's picture

So we need to add in the guesstimated $2 trillion "underground economy" and add in unfunded liabilities to get a "true" figure....

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 10:40 | Link to Comment Falconsixone
Falconsixone's picture

"Will you take a check?"

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 10:46 | Link to Comment MrBoompi
MrBoompi's picture

 but then there was an infamous excel error, and now nobody cares anymore.

------------

Somehow people believe this was just a simple "error".  Shit happens right?  The fact these two are tied to Pete Peterson and the American Enterprise Institute doesn't matter?  How many times does it have to be pointed out there is wide and pervasive corruption in the economics establishment?  What kind of economics are taught in Ivy League schools?  The kind that want to promote a fair system?  Give me a fucking break.

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 11:09 | Link to Comment zipit
zipit's picture

So how much faster is debt growing than the economy (use whatever definitions and time periods are most appropriate)?

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 12:37 | Link to Comment sbenard
sbenard's picture

Answer: About THREE TIMES faster!

Disaster coming down the tracks!

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 11:13 | Link to Comment writingsonthewall
writingsonthewall's picture

There was a time when people were concerned about this unsustainable trajectory, but then there was an infamous excel error, and now nobody cares anymore.

CORRECTION - there was a time when the media tried to convince people it mattered, with some dodgy 'analysis' which hadn't even been peer reviewed.

Truth is deficits can only be tackled in booms, it's no good trying to tackle it in a depression. You have to accept that we already spent the deficit we're uncontrollably running up - and hope growth returns soon so you can start to pay it off - even if that means borrowing MORE to get there.

sadly, too many people have accepted the simplified analysis that the national debt is like a credit card - and that nations defaulting is now a 'thing of the past'.

THis could all be resolved if people actually get on with it and default - burn the bondholders - most of them are banks anyway - and start all over again.

A much better solution than trying to self flagelate yourself into paying back something you will never be able to pay back - and indeed which will kill your country in the process of trying.

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 13:07 | Link to Comment Oldwood
Oldwood's picture

But the banks can't be made to suffer for they are the life's blood of our economy! Did you not get the message? To your point that deficits can only be tackeled in a boom, what if the deficits are causing the depression?What if continued deficit spending makes it worse?

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 11:38 | Link to Comment marathonman
marathonman's picture

Relax, that's just the on balance sheet stuff.  The real money is off balance sheet.  That off balance sheet number is full retard though.

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 11:56 | Link to Comment kwality
kwality's picture

Um, I left my wallet at home.  Can you guys get this?  I promise I'll pay you back.

*books ticket to South America*

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 11:59 | Link to Comment polo007
polo007's picture

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/52d23fa6-aa98-11e2-bc0d-00144feabdc0.html#axzz2R9N2XEZi

Data shift to lift US economy 3 percent
 
April 21, 2013

By Robin Harding in Washington
 
The US economy will officially become 3 per cent bigger in July as part of a shake-up that will see government statistics take into account 21st century components such as film royalties and spending on research and development.
 
Billions of dollars of intangible assets will enter the gross domestic product of the world’s largest economy in a revision aimed at capturing the changing nature of US output.
 
Brent Moulton, who manages the national accounts at the Bureau of Economic Analysis, told the Financial Times that the update was the biggest since computer software was added to the accounts in 1999.
 
“We are carrying these major changes all the way back in time – which for us means to 1929 – so we are essentially rewriting economic history,” said Mr Moulton.
 
The changes will affect everything from the measured GDP of different US states to the stability of the inflation measure targeted by the Federal Reserve. They will force economists to revisit policy debates about everything from corporate profits to the causes of economic growth.
 
The revision, equivalent to adding a country as big as Belgium to the estimated size of the world economy, will make the US one of the first adopters of a new international standard for GDP accounting.
 
“We’re capitalising research and development and also this category referred to as entertainment, literary and artistic originals, which would be things like motion picture originals, long-lasting television programmes, books and sound recordings,” said Mr Moulton.
 
At present, R&D counts as a cost of doing business, so the final output of Apple iPads is included in GDP but the research done to create them is not. R&D will now count as an investment, adding a bit more than 2 per cent to the measured size of the economy.

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 12:00 | Link to Comment bagehot99
bagehot99's picture

It's only stupid investor money anyways, and they're all rich and can afford to be completely wiped out, in order that Obama can feed caviar to his dog on one of his two Boeing 747s.

You know that Obama costs about twenty times what the British Monarchy costs, right? And they have the decency not to engage in cheap mudslinging, self-righteous hectoring, and Marxist totalitarianism.

In a just world, he'd be swinging from a fucking lamp post by dusk.

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 12:06 | Link to Comment polo007
polo007's picture

http://pubs.aeaweb.org/doi/pdfplus/10.1257/jep.26.3.69

Public Debt Overhangs: Advanced-Economy Episodes Since 1800

Carmen M. Reinhart, Vincent R. Reinhart, and Kenneth S. Rogoff

The recent fi nancial crisis and recession has left a legacy of historically high and rising level of public indebtedness across the advanced economies. The central policy debate across Europe, Japan, and the United States now centers on how fast to stabilize soaring public debt/GDP ratios, given that post-crisis growth remains fragile. We bring evidence to bear on the issue by identifying the major public debt overhang episodes in advanced economies since the early 1800s. Following Reinhart and Rogoff (2010), we select stretches where gross public debt exceeds 90 percent of nominal GDP on a sustained basis. Such public debt overhang episodes are associated with lower growth than during other periods. Even more striking, among the 26 episodes we identify, 20 lasted more than a decade. The long duration belies the view that the correlation is caused mainly by debt buildups during business cycle recessions. The long duration also implies that the cumulative shortfall in output from debt overhang is potentially massive. These growth-reducing effects of high public debt are apparently not transmitted exclusively through high real interest rates, in that in eleven of the episodes, interest rates are not materially higher.

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 12:34 | Link to Comment sbenard
sbenard's picture

I get goosebumps of joy knowing that our DEBT is growing THREE TIMES faster than our economy!

Economy? Who needs an economy! Who needs jobs? Who even needs reality? We have PRINTED prosperity now!

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 13:19 | Link to Comment Morrotzo
Morrotzo's picture

One thing that is never discussed widely and publically is the amount of "intragovernmental holdings"

that the U.S. government has. The number is about 5 trillion dollars today and grows ever larger by the day.

GDP also measures the 4 trillion dollars or so taken out of the private sector economy or added as debt.

 

You can easily imagine a scenario where governmental debt to GDP is computed by including this governmental

debt and excluding about 4 trillion from the GDP. You'd get a figure closer to 200 percent federal debt to GDP

than "only" 100 percent. 

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 13:23 | Link to Comment Duude
Duude's picture

The debt to GDP will all be fixed real soon. In July the federal government is rejiggering its computation of GDP. It will only add more figures to the total fixing perceptions for the easy to delude.  Next up will be eliminating the reporting of the rate of employment participation. Then all will be swell. 

Fri, 04/26/2013 - 13:35 | Link to Comment polo007
polo007's picture

According to Bank of America Merrill Lynch:

http://www.scribd.com/doc/138127514/US-Economic-Weekly-Bank-of-America-Merrill-Lynch

Macro viewpoint

Easy in, easy out

- Review: The choppy slowdown continued into April, with better jobless claims but weak regional manufacturing surveys.

- Preview: The April employment report will be a good test of whether the March weakness was a fluke or a sign of sustained weakness. We look for a sub-consensus 125,000 increase.

- Hot topic: With persistently sub-2% inflation, the case for continued QE is building. When the Fed does finally head for the exit, the key question for investors is the same as it has been in the past: if inflation is low, it will be a soft landing; if inflation is high, buckle your seatbelts.

Sat, 04/27/2013 - 11:09 | Link to Comment knavechild
knavechild's picture

Looks like I picked the wrong century to have a son.

Sat, 04/27/2013 - 21:40 | Link to Comment cooperbry
cooperbry's picture

The only reason debts don't matter is if the debtor has no intention of paying the debt.  Wait.

Mon, 04/29/2013 - 11:31 | Link to Comment Heartstone001
Heartstone001's picture

Anybody read Naomi Kleins "The shock doctorine"?? She warns us about this all throughout her book! A must read.....scary stuff just above the horizon!

 

 

 

Two words people: BUY AMMO!

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