Total US Debt To GDP: 105%

Tyler Durden's picture

Now that we have the first estimate of Q1 GDP growth in both rate of change and absolute current dollar terms ($16,010 billion), we can finally assign the appropriate debt number, which we know on a daily basis and which was $16,771.4 billion as of March 31, to the growth number. The end result: as of March 31, 2013, the US debt/GDP was 104.8%, up from 103% as of December 31, 2012 or a debt growth rate that would make the most insolvent Eurozone nation blush. There was a time when people were concerned about this unsustainable trajectory, but then there was an infamous excel error, and now nobody cares anymore.

In fact, moar debt is moar best-er.

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Groundhog Day's picture

Well at least their's growth somewhere

Buckaroo Banzai's picture

Growth in terror attacks, maybe.

How on earth has this story not been in the national news?

"Investigators are running down leads in an early Sunday shootout between a security officer at Watt Bar Nuclear Plant and an individual who fired multiple shots from a boat on Chickamauga Lake near Spring City, Tenn., property."

fonzannoon's picture

Are they heading to NY? If so can you please ask them if they are coming to party or attack it. I have tentative plans in NYC this weekend.

Stackers's picture

Now subtract $2 trillion from GDP for "imputation" and "redirection" and thats the real number ...... or more like 120% debt to GDP.

Dr. Richard Head's picture

It really doesn't matter if it is 200% debt/GDP...look at Japan.  You see, it pushes aggregate demand.  Debt does not matter, especially when it comes to government spending.  /sarc

jerry_theking_lawler's picture

increase the $$ from intangibles and all will be well

Shocker's picture

It is reflected in the current economic situation

Layoff/ Closing List


JustObserving's picture

Dagong, the Chinese rating agency, claims that US GDP is only about $6 trillion now (they claim it was $5 trillion in 2009).

If we exclude the factor of virtual economy, the U.S. actual GDP is about 5 trillion U.S. dollars in 2009, per capita GDP about $ 15,000.


kchrisc's picture

I can't find the article or link, but sometime last year I read an analysis by a contrarian-economist that highlighted that US GDP is overstated by about 100%

Basically, fix the inflation numbers by using's numbers not those from the B(S)LS and then remove government spending from GDP and then reset by 30 or so years and extrapolate forward. The resulting number is about one-half to two-thirds of the current number depending where one draws a few lines. Including gov spending in the GDP equation double counts it--private sector makes it (counted), gov steals it and spends it (counted again).

He then predicted what the new number would mean to certain economic indicators and such like tax (loot) revenue, etc. And the new GDP number was more inline with what was happening there.

I would add that a lot of GDP is for the sake of gov, like tanks, bullets, etc. so one could even imagine GDP even lower than what he estimated.

His conclusion was to not to take his number as gospel but to make people aware that GDP is most certainly overstated and therefore the debt to GDP ratio is much higher than currently computed. That is a bit of a "duh" but it was stark to see it in clear black and white.


natronic's picture

Right it's all mucked up.  I want to figure out where people are getting and espousing the bogus 74% debt to gdp?  This thing is going to blow up bigger than a pressure cooker at an international race.  I feel sorry for those left holding the bag.

Reven's picture

To be fair there's about a $2 trillion underground economy in the US, drugs, cash only work, etc.

notbot's picture

Tyler, you must have missed it. Reinhart and Rogoff made an error in Excel.

Ergo, no country in the history of the planet has ever had too much debt.

ParkAveFlasher's picture


Looks like R&R was a gigantic quasi-mathematical straw man. 

This proves to me that Hanlon's Razor also works when reversed.

dick cheneys ghost's picture

How about the guy with 2 IED's on a train in jersey? Im not from Jersey, is this normal?

not reported by FBI either?

Smegley Wanxalot's picture

If I were in Jersey I'd wanna kill myself too.  But killing others ... datz kinda fucked up man unlessin you kin post it on U-toob baebeee.

pods's picture

Reminds me of the underwear bomber.  Favorite all time quote:

"If I had to fly into Detroit on Christmas I'd set my balls on fire too!"


Navymugsy's picture

"If I had to fly into Detroit on Christmas I'd set my balls on fire too!"


That's in the Koran so it must be true!

CalBear's picture

That goes directly to the pantheon of all-time greatest lines

A_Dog's picture

 Speaking of growth, is it weird that one of my testicles is larger than the other two?

Bananamerican's picture

Yes Dog, having three testicles is highly unusual...

fattail's picture

You should have the large one of the three hedonically smoothed to reduce the inflation of your ball sack.

kwality's picture

It depends, have you been swimming in the Pacific Ocean lately?

Rainman's picture

It will only improve from here. ObamaScare will be the mega-debt super-turbocharger !

pods's picture

I gotta reinforce my rear end just to handle that.


BLOTTO's picture

Lets get real right now - this debt, any countries debt, is never and not meant to be paid off.

Stackers's picture

more to the point it can never be paid off without reducing the money supply by the same amount and causing a deflationary depression.

AnAnonymous's picture

Lets get real right now - this debt, any countries debt, is never and not meant to be paid off.

Oh, no. Certain countries' debt was meant to be paid off.

'American' countries' debt is meant not to be paid off. The 'american' countries wanted their debt to be so big it could not be repaid on a global scale.

Other countries, it is all part of the 'american'business of extorting the weak, farming the poor.

madcows's picture

No, but the bond holders who lend them the money want to know if the payments are going to be made on time....

tick tick tick tick







BOOOOOM!!!!!!!!!!!! mutha fucka

Iconoclast's picture

At some point if it keeps being socialised and folk get no wage rises, 100% of their pay chq will go on tax before they have anything left for basics, let alone luxuries...

Sudden Debt's picture

Didn't they say that as long as it stays below 950% of GDP, that there's no real problem?

NoDebt's picture

You have not been paying close enough attention.  It does not matter the number.  Not 90%, not 900%, not 9000%. 

We are all treating ourselves much worse than we need to.  The government could make this country a veritable economic paradise if they just opened up their wallet and started spending more. 

I say THANK GOD they caught that spreadsheet error.  We can finally dispense with the fiction of needing to live withing your means and get down to the much needed business of HELPING PEOPLE.

<I am Dr. Paul Krugman and I approve this message.>

zerozulu's picture

Soon American public will be allowed to print their own money too because It is getting a bit of hassle to the fed.

azzhatter's picture

I see what you did there Tyler, not counting those unfunded liabilities. Debt to GDP is closer to 1000/1

Che Guevara is Dead's picture

I notice the price of Colt's AR-15 6920 LE (Law enforcement edition) is selling for over $1700 on Gunbroker. That's half a grand higher than it was going for pre-Sandy Hook. 

Guns are up. Ammo is up. Gold is up. Don't know the price of Russian hookers but I suspect they're up too. 

Let the good times roll...

Rick Blaine's picture

For a few weeks after the shooting, 6920s were going for over $3K on was insane.

...but things have calmed down quite a bit since then...for some items.  I can obtain 6920s for pretty much "regular" prices now.

During the peak of the craziness, I saw a pair of Noveske gen 2 stripped lowers w/consec serial numbers go for $2626 - just absurd.

Saint Pitbull's picture

It is MUCH greater than 105%.  Throw in:

- the unfunded pensions that the US federal gov't will pick up

- the state and city bankruptcies, that are already starting (e.g., Stockton)

- other unfunded state obligations that will be picked up at the federal level (yes, Texas - you will be paying for California, Illinois, Mass., etc...)

- the student loan bomb (over 25% have non-payments 90+ days old) and its getting worse as any dog shampooing college helps you will out the required loan paperwork

- you just KNOW that we will get involved in another undeclared war

- the slightest uptick in interest rates will reverberate like it's in an echo chamber

There, that's another 5 - 6 TRILLION.  That puts Debt:GDP over 150%.  And I'm being optimistic.

KnightTakesKing's picture

It's when (not if) the federal government tries to take on the debts of these deadbeat states that the Red States will begin serious talks about session. Fun times ahead ZeroHead'ers.

RafterManFMJ's picture

*Raises fist in the air* USA! USA! USA!

Sudden Debt's picture


TeamDepends's picture

W got all teary yesterday when he remembered he wasn't able to complete his No Child Left scorched-earth policies...

RafterManFMJ's picture

105 out of 100= A++!

We got every one of the extra credit questions!

Buckaroo Banzai's picture

Gone from 75% to 105% under Obama's watch.

GetZeeGold's picture



Oh.....then he's clearly winning.

azzhatter's picture

So is Dimon, Blankfuck, Buffett et al

Sudden Debt's picture


doomandbloom's picture

One who dies with the most Debt, wins