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Front-Line Observations From A Seasoned Gold & Silver Bullion Dealer
Submitted by Adam Taggart of Peak Prosperity,
Spikes and plunges in the U.S. dollar price of gold; this is not new. It goes back to the early 1970s. We remember that for most of the past 40 years, physical gold and silver investors, particularly in the U.S., tended to chase big rallies and buy late, while too often selling after plunges or after long periods of price erosion. Gold was sold then primarily as an inflation hedge. When it was working, speculators bought much more. When it stopped working as an inflation hedge, they first became puzzled and frustrated, then fearful, and they sold out at bottoms.
So, fast-forward to this month, and today’s gold community starts to look a bit different as the breakdown below previous gold and silver price support levels began, and especially last week, with gold going below $1400. Physical buyers were outnumbering sellers in our store by at least 5 to 1. And some of the unfortunate sellers had not changed their thinking about gold long-term; they just needed fast liquidity, which is another benefit of gold.
80 – 90% of the people who have bought gold from us in the last two weeks on the drop were already gold owners, already gold savers.
Their attitude is, gold is on sale
Robert Mish kindly took a break from operations at his bullion dealership to return for another conversation with Chris on what he's been observing on the front lines this week, transacting with both retail and wholesale customers.
Gold
Gold is a little bit backlogged. The premiums are slightly elevated. Products commonly traded, such as gold maple leafs, American eagles, and refiner one-ounce bars are 2-3 weeks out. And for some of my colleagues further away in the supply chain, 4-6 weeks out. The premiums are up to maybe $5 to $15 dollars an ounce over normal.
Silver
Silver is another story. The demand for silver has completely overwhelmed existing inventories and the ability of the mints and their refiners to produce more product. The other big mystery is: how much more silver is there to make product out of? Will the buyers be able to keep the pressure on until the price of [physical] silver and paper silver have to move up just to return the market’s equilibrium? Right now, 100-ounce silver bars, which a few months ago were trading dealer-to-dealer around melt or a little over, are now 75 cents to a $1 an ounce – not retail, our cost – and 4 to 8 weeks out. 1-ounce and 10-ounce refiner product used to be 30, 40, 50 cents. Now it’s $1.10-$1.25, our cost, 2-4 weeks out. Silver maple leafs, our cost from the prime American distributor of the Canadian Royal Mint today: $3.75. It was $1.70 a month ago. 3-4 weeks out. Silver eagles, normally a little over $2, they are $5 if you want them live; $4 if you want them in 4-6 weeks.
These premiums are the physical market saying, we are willing to pay this for real silver right now. Whether the suppliers can meet this demand and bring the premium down, we’ll see weeks from now. It is much different this time than it was in the past, in that the drop in price is bringing in buyers rather than sellers. It used to be that a rally would bring in the buyers. So we have had an important change.
The Big Picture
The powers that be guided a lot of that potential demand into paper gold and exchanged traded products of various forms. Then they slaughter those products, and I’m sure in their mind hopefully discouraged those people for a long time. But in time, changing cultures and the prosperity of people internationally in cultures which understand gold, I think is going to take its toll on the shorting game. And the shorting game will end badly. And that doesn’t mean that those who have the other side of the equation necessarily will profit, because they will find a corrupt way to burn them.
What we have now is a game of chicken between the physical buyers and the paper shorters. It is like, who will quit first? We have a shortage of physical product. But we are told by the mint distributors and the refiners Oh, don’t worry. In two, three, four, five weeks your orders will arrive. If the buying continues at the pace it’s going, or begins to expand to a greater percent of the population in this country and worldwide, eventually, by asking for delivery, the physical buyers will change the game. It is a poker game of both real cards and bluffing. Are the shorts bluffing? Yeah. But they get away with it over and over again. This time when the longs fold as they have in the past, the shorts, they sandbag the river. But the flood of fiat currency keeps rising. If buyers would stick to their guns and develop habits and understand why they buy gold and silver, the shorts will run out of sand.
Robert also shares details on the buying activity of his Asian clients. There is much for the West to emulate, particularly if it does not want to wake up one day realizing it has dis-hoarded the bulk of its bullion overseas.
Click the play button below to listen to Chris' interview with Robert Mish (41m:34s):
Click here to read the full transcript
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There are few things I enjoy more than running my chain saw through a nice stand of beeches.
Silver beeches.
Well played, sir. <Golf clap>
Being a firewood snob I only burn fir.
For a minute, there, I thought you said "burn fur". Here's what to do if your girlfriend starts smoking; slow down and use a lubricant.
I'm a big proponent for clear cutting down there.
I have no problem having a shavings account, as long as she's not too big to fail.
Laughed out loud! Outrageous.
I was thinking of PUS when I picked up my latest batch of barbarous relics and ASEs. I smiled to myself and then turned up the car radio - "Your Gold Teeth" by Steely Dan was playing. Too bad I lost it all on the way home when I drove my car into the canal. No boating accidents for me.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vkxDmLZqbXw
Got a feeling I've been here before
Won't you let me help you find the door
All you got to do is use
Your silver shoes
Such an awesome jam.
Chase rallies and buy late? Not me!! Well maybe a little, and the miners oy! Let's not talk about it
Yeah baby I bought more Silver, FUCK the cartel............................ and fuck you Blythe you whore.
Now that you mention it, Blythe does have a distinctly unwholesome look about her, doesn't she?
If only Amy Winehouse were still with us, to give Blythe a few tips on looking and acting like a lady. Failing that, Mick Jagger will have to do.
God made nasty girls
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fm4ggRee6ng
.
...or Lindsey Graham.
That fucking asshole (Graham) a wolf disguised as a sheep, made my shit list last week.
The internet sales tax...the boy has shown his spots.
Heh, that asshole has been showing his leopard print feather boa for years.
I doubt he will survive elections next year, he lives not too far from me and couldn't get elected dog catcher on has home turf at this point. I've heard rumors that Rep. Mulvaney may throw his hat in the ring for the primaries in '14, if so Senator Lohan has no chance.
I simply do not understand all this rancor directed at BM. Everytime I get to buy cut-rate SE's with dead presidents I say, "Thank you, BM".
The difference this time is that the buyers aren't speculating. Tons of gold have gone into the vaults of the governments of China, India and other nations. More tons go to the newly rich of the east. Gold bugs in the west have seen gold rise in value every year for more than ten years, and have the confidence to ride out dips.
If real gold is taken off the table month after month, year after year, the supply must dry up and the sellers of paper find themselves in a short squeeze. This has happened before when a rich man or institution squeezed the exchange for profit, and was bought off. But how do you buy off millions of individuals demanding their metals?
Same way as in 1980-2001 -- bleed them to death with a two-thirds decline.
If you don't know who the sucker is at the poker table ... it's you.
And I think we just discovered who the idiot at the table is as well.
I can't take these people anymore. Can someone please present a cogent argument against gold? 1980-2000....give me a break.
Okay so what was the average growth rate in the economy over that period of time and where did interest rates average?
That is a shitty comparison. Prove otherwise.
I came to the conlusion, many years ago, that ANYONE who starts an argument on the topic of gold by trotting out the price spike of early 1980 as their baseline for any subsequent (bearish) conclusion can immediately be dismissed as an objective or honest observer or commentator.
I don't remember the debt to GDP at 105% at any point during 1980-2000. I don't remember the Fed increasing the monetary base by 3-fold. The time for gold varies. It seems to be now.
not true. the deficits were MASSIVE in 1980...even through 1983. obviously economic growth exploded after '83...so did employment (entry of women into the work force.) tax receipts flooded the system...we had major entitlement reform "and presto 400 billion dollar surpluses in the 90's that needed to be spent." and were spent on one of the biggest housing bubbles...if not biggest bubble period...in history. if gold "hiccups" (as it already has) you have to start looking at the pricing of other assets as well as "gold always has a buyer." debt (save Treasuries), housing, high yield...those all look like "risky things that actually are risky." this "recovery" has the feel of the early 80's (commodity prices completely collapsed) "without the economic recovery." (though "not an outright recession" it does appear we've institutionalized some type of "permanent slow down.")
You're making different points disabledvet. Again, though deficts WERE big (and CAN be during time of war... cold or otherwise), debt:GDP didn't even rise above 70%. And we were coming off of a period of massive inflation, not going into one. My feeling are there are very few similarities twixt then and now. We still breath air, would be one, I guess.
US debt to GDP: http://www.bond-bubble.com/pics2/US-debt-gdp-percentage.png
A cogent argument against gold?
Sure. Gold is priced in dollars, and those are going to zero so pretty soon gold won't be worth anything, because if gold is worth 1500 times zero, that's zero. Right?
And, and, you can't eat gold, and it doesn't have any utility payments or intrinsic, uh, usefulness/value/purpose other than it's shiny and some seedy central-banker types will bankrupt nations, steal depositor funds and start wars in idiotic places just to get their hands on a few bars. Uh, and it's not money, it's an asset says Ctrl+P Bernanza, which is kind of an odd thing to say, when you think about it. How is something an asset when you can't eat it, it doesn't pay any interest or produce any income and besides, it's a Barber's Relic?
That ought to hold you at least until access trading opens on Monday.
Argument against gold as a store of wealth? There really isn't one. But I have thought about how the fiat criminals might try to turn gold bugs into lepers so they can regain control of money and its supply.
The value of anything is proportional to its popularity (demand). What if the Fed started an all out campaign to make gold as unpopular as smoking indoors? If PUD's arguments against gold is any indication, it's more than possible to use msm resources to make owners of gold into some sort of monstrous social pariahs, and any dealings in it to be anti social. We all know how easily peer pressure can manipulate and how hermetically controlled the msm is. The sheep, especially the well meaning ones, will lap it up and digital currency - the kind that can be infinitely produced and traced forever - will be championed as the only "Clean" solution on a polluted world. We're already starting to hear similar propaganda from TPTB about "barbarous relics".
I'm afraid that unless we start getting real journalism and real news back in the msm, as unlikely as that would be, it is possible to kill gold and make it unacceptable to own. And once you have no takers, it will lose its value. As an advocate of gold at the present time, that is one possibility I have considered with some disgust and alarm.
Wrong! The only possible correct answer that comes to mind, is: War! The kind that makes people want to spend fiat on anything and everything but gold.
Don't frikin tempt them (more than they are)! That's why the people in best shape are those why are prepared at all levels of resiliency.
Alas, for all my cheeky remarks, I'm nowhere near well-prepared for store-run shortages as I/we should be. The guys with a few acres, a garden, some critters and a full larder are in better shape than me and my cash & bullion.
I've got the full lardass covered. And I think there are some critters living under the sink.
so how much of that "worthless paper" you got bitch? fess up big boy because "Wall Street yawns at a 100 million."
of course it is just like 1980!! Double digit interest rates are driving everyone nuts. Whip Inflation Now has been the political slogan of the last two elections. Dow to Gold ration just hit unity!
What dope are you smoking? You need better weed.
Paper burns.
Germany and others want their gold back. What does that tell you?
When the US has it's currency crisis you'll just have more paper to burn.
"fa'i tsu'i Jade...everybody want, nobody got"
Go Go Silver!
Unless China and India buy into the gold short ... the shorts are toast and will both lose theis ass and have to deliver something they cannot buy.
It is not just a western game as it was before.
Here is the thing though. I believe there is about 100 times more physical gold that has been mined and refined than the central bankers want you to believe. This knowledge gives them the ability to make people think there is a limited supply when it is is not....
... the key being though is that if people are paying attention to phsyical quantities being transferred, the secret will be out.
i could live with the 100 times more supply theory in the knowledge the paper supply is 1000:1.
I think you have gold confused with diamonds...in my experience the real stuff is tough to find.
Mario, regarding the total possible amount of gold in the world, let me repost this from earlier today:
The only think I know about mining is that if you keep raising the input costs (oil/salaries for workers) and the price stagnates and now drops the less mining will be going on.
http://www.wisegeek.org/can-gold-be-extracted-from-seawater.htm
Excellent points akak - I think your numbers are about right. To add one more factor the 'ancients' had a relatively virgin world to explore and the gold and silver they went after was the pure stuff - nuggets and veins. None of this '2 grams per ton' stuff that people call mining today. So the calculation is - what was the original proportion of "pure gold' and 'pure silver' in the top few meters of the earth compared with the ' 2 grams per ton' stuff. That will give us an approximation of how much gold and silver the ancients 'mined'. Any geologists out there with an estimate?
Even been in one of those old Mexican silver mines? You can see where the old veins were, and they were massive. It looks like once a vein was discovered on the surface the rulers sent in the slaves to dig out as much as possible and then moved on. I saw the remains of one vein that had to have been been five feet thick and hundreds of meters long before it disappeared into the bowels of the earth. The tunnels that were dug following those veins are spectacular - but the deaths that it took to dig it out must have been spectacular. Still, nobody in the ancient world - Mexico or anywhere else - bothered with anything but the pure stuff that could be relatively easily dug out of the rock in chunks ( by slaves of course) or just picked up laying around. That is mostly gone - though I'm sure that Mexican mountain ranges still hold mega-tons of pure silver veins, its just that nobody knows where they are and there are millions of tons of rock on top of them, so it isn't a matter to stoop and scoop anymore.
Doesn't matter. If they're selling at the marginal cost of production, you are getting a good deal.
I just saw the Asian news on TV saying some gold stores are closing up b/c they cannot restock gold and PMs fast enuff. "All Sold Out" is what the signs say in the windows....
Heavy demand ....I am not sure The CBs planned on this reaction....Uber Heavy Global Demand from the lowly untouchables in India to the high-and-mighty Swiss Billionaires all loading up the on shiney perty yellow metal.
Blythe, I just want to slap you and pull your hair.
Oh, and give me sum silver. Pullin hair ain't free bitch.
"The other big mystery is: how much more silver is there to make product out of? Will the buyers be able to keep the pressure on until the price of [physical] silver and paper silver have to move up just to return the market’s equilibrium?"
We may be about to find out ;-)
nmewn I called my guy on Friday and asked him about Silver. He said he had none. I pushed him and he said he had a few eagles left but that the premium was ridiculous and advised against me buying right now. I said "what's ridiculous". $32 right now he says. I say "I'll take em". He says forget it, they are not for sale.
How can price not solve everything?
It will, eventually.
"Price is what you pay, value is what you get."...may well have been the only time in Warrens life he was saying something that wasn't self serving. Because he knows.
Just like Morgan before him, everything else is just credit...he knew as well, paper prices mean nothing compared to value. Value doesn't need to be enforced at the point of a bayonet.
It just is. Perhaps price/force & coercion is meeting the wall of value/reality to meet demand ;-)
I bought silver myself adhering to the rule that the ratio is still to high. The best one I've ever seen hit it just about on the head is DoChen, he exchanged silver for gold at around 22:1 if I remember right.
coal mines are shutting down! "the same thing can happen to silver and gold mines as well." why? "because the price is too low." this is back door (or "banker way") of "closing the gold window." only the most CAPITALIZED can keep the mine open "thus giving them the gold" and not you and me down here in the cheap seats. these folks look at the massive loss of employment as GOOD news. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c9p5IVPr784
Hey n. (I refuse to think of you as an nme within or otherwise) I also happen to think that silver has more tailwinds going for it at the moment. Congrats on the turkey shoot the other day. You seem to be raising a fine lad, there.
You shouldn't, I'm not an enemy to anyone except fascists & communists of all affiliations. We exchange one for another until the ratio matches the larger goal of preservation. Its all about patience & time until strike.
And thanks, it was a nice bird and squire will have the mount ready sometime next week, the fan is done last I heard, just some touch up.
I'd love to turn you on to the web page with his proud pic...but you understand, ZH is global ;-)
OPSEC is important my good man. We may even stand back to back someday against said busybodies, and probably never know it. If all else fails, I'll be the guy wearing the ZH cap at FEMA camp.
We just might, I'll be the guy in the Pink Floyd shirt wearing a ripped up cowboy hat carrying a .50 Barrett still believing its really important to reach out and touch someone.
I'll be low on ammo by then, just so ya know ;-)
nmewn (yr 3506667), I exchanged some 60 oz of Silver Eagles and some cash for two oz of gold, when the ratio was about 35:1. I ain't no genius, don't you dare making me go look like one...
"when the ratio was about 35:1."
Damn...I'm getting as bad at recalling facts & figures as government staticians...lol.
Still, not a bad G/S exchange, I remembered and give props where due ;-)
@ stockcharts.com, enter "gld:slv", when it comes up, then click "weekly" chart. In May 2011 or so is where I caught the favorable ratio. Just holding my silver now, accumulating gold when I can.
***
FEMA Camp? Maybe we'll be lucky, and they'll put knukles, Hulk, akak, TwoShortPlanks, Peter Pan, fonzanoon, you & me and all the rest of the PM-Nutters in the same building...
We can taunt our watchers PUD and Praetorian Guards... :P
Can I come too?
Uhm... Lemme check the List... Mmm., no...
Wait! I just saw you on James_Cole's List!
Yes! You're in! Congratulations!
Welcome aboard Iridiumrebel!
Drinks @ $55k...
You guys!! Yukking it all up in some FEMA barricks, thinking about the good ole days. Well I plan on living the good ole days in the hills with pick and shovel, mining that $10,000. gold. You know, you might be able to out-manuever FEMA if ya diddn't have to all dive to them lake bottoms to fetch yer stacks.
Can we bring MDB and PUD along too?
We could be there for a long time and saying, "I told you so" NEVER gets old.
http://silverdoctors.com/on-may-1st-we-fight-back/
On May 1st, We Fight Back!!
April 26, 2013 By The Doc
This matches my experience. Provident has upped their premiums over the past week or so on silver by at least 50 cents an oz. Pretty much all products are on backorder.
You guys should go to Gainesville Coins. They have Silver Canadian Buffalos for 3.09 over spot right now, and a lot of them. Even in normal premium times this is a decent deal (maybe 40 cents for than normal). I just bought a crap load. You will have to wait a few weeks for delivery though.
Well, that's the problem in a nutshell, isn't it? On the one hand, you say they have a lot, on the other, they won't ship for a month (May 24 looking at their site). It's not supply if they won't actually have it for a month.
Even in normal premium times this is a decent deal (maybe 40 cents for than normal)
$3.09 is your idea of a decent premium? Children, children.....I remember when 40 cents WAS the premium on silver rounds. And less than 40 cents.
Obviously you're not familar with the product I'm talking about. They've only been produced for a few years, and you've never ever seen them for 40 cents. You must be confused. They are always more than the Maple leafs due to limited production.
What I said was the premium over spot was 40 cents, not the price.
I think you mean the Canadian Wood Bison coin. A million of those were struck. If you want low mintage, what you want are silver Libertads. The total mintage for the 1998 Libertad was 67,000. And that's the BU, not the proof. The 1998 1 0z Libertad proof strike is just 500 coins total. I like the 2007--easier to find, and only 200k total.
As for your Canada "buffalo", an ounce of silver is an ounce of silver, pretty much. I mean, there are a million of them.
yea I ordered a roll of those Canadian bison coins from Gainsville last Thursday as it was the best value I could find for my taste. Said it would take 13- 15 days. Saturday, I get an OOPS email saying they will be delayed longer................................. Silver is gone guys.
No, I ordered 300 SE's about a month ago from JM bullion. UPS rang my doorbell today. Alas, I was asleep.
Yes, just like the Saudi's are pumping all the oil they can.......................
"It is like, who will quit first?"
Not me - Hang in there FiSHeS!
There is no shortage of actual gold or silver from everything I have heard, only a shortage of the manufactured products. I just dont understand how people interpret this as being some sort of bullish sign? Think about it, you have one production factory in the entire world for example punching out Maple leaf coins. This facility is also punching out 100's of other differnt types of collector coins at the same time so isn't it obvious that it would take very little buying to create a shortage?? That's not because of huge demand so much as very limited production in my opinion. The same goes for the Gold and Silver coins from every mint in every nation. Also, if you are a dealer who has purchased your stock over the last year at higher prices, you are going to lose a ton of money at these current prices. Maybe many of them have pulled their stock waiting for the price to rebound a little so they do not lose so much? I am not anti Gold or Silver at all, I just think allot of times people interpret things the way they want to see them, you know, rose colored glasses.
Those are valid observations, WhoMe, and I would never interpret your presentation of them as any sort of anti-PM "trolling".
What I think is different this time around, and the thing that makes many PM owners and analysts so interested and excited, is the radicaly increased level of physical PM purchasing DESPITE the fall in prices --- the 'normal' pattern in the past was to see increased interest, and purchasing, on price spikes, NOT on the dips. The sheer scale of the suddenly increased interest in physical PM purchases is notable as well.
I also did not down arrow you because at least you are approaching it from a different aspect. So let's go with that. Knowing most dealers would pay up for silver right now.... Would it be wise for Kyle Bass or some hedge fund whiz to buy a few million shares of SLV at $23 and then immediately ask for delivery and just sell it on the open market, essentially arb the price?
Also, whether the manifuctured product is plentiful or not is beyone my knowledge, but I know that price usually slows down demand the higher it goes. So why is the price of spot silver not skyrocketing until it reaches a level where demand tapers off?
again this is just my view but i believe "it's all about scale now." if a gold mine is "on the chopping block" because they simply can run the thing right or they've got too much debt or they can't keep their miners happy...there's someone willing to pay "the prevailing wage and then some" provided you hand over the mine to them. since the fear of all Governments in the world right appears to be imminent bankruptcy then "it's all eyes on the liquidity providers." they will BANKROLL say "the Wal Mart of mining" to buy up say...Silver Wheaton "and get that thing running like Henry Ford's assembly lines in World War II." "long armored rail cars."
That is an awesome idea! The only problem, is the waiting time till delivery.
gold must be refined too. this is VERY expensive. "for you i will charge you 100,000 an ounce."
Cyprus, IMNSHO, changed everything and woke people the fuck up...
Yeah, thats what i was thinking earlier today. It like-- the MOOD of things has changed. People are like, "Did that really just happen? I mean did the REALLY just HAPPEN? Its like when you're at a party and someone pulls their cock out. DID THAT REALLY JUST HAPPEN?
So what you are saying is there will be no rise in the price of gold and silver because there is no real shortage. But the price is going to go up because the dealers aren't selling. So what's the difference?
looks like they just have to tell you something to buy at these high levels. gold was on sale at 300 not at 1400...
lol
The diff is how "sustainable" the perceived shortage is. If there is no real shortage then it means the refiners and mints just need to ramp production. + likely only cause a temporary spike in prices. Someone posted up a link that detailed the supply chain for US Mint - they have specific suppliers only. These suppliers need to ramp up or US Mint needs to allow more suppliers - then it would remove temporary shortage.
If there is a REAL shortage, then that means there are problems with miners and available material for refiners/mints. Then likely price to the... moon or whatever figurative height.
Yeah sure, Perth Mint is out of One Kilo cast bars, Ten gram minted, Fifty Gram minted, Hundred gram minted, Five ounce cast, Twenty ounce cast and the premium is around $30 per oounce.
No, it isnt obvious that "limited buying would create a shortage" at all.
I'm baffled how miners haven't moonshot.
How can miners moonshoot when the "market" just delivered them a large price reduction. If anything the miners should suffer even more than bullion.
Good point. Word on the street from Keiser is that miners can't afford to operate at this price level, and are shutting down.
Miners have long had a policy of mining and processing low grade ore when prices are elevated and switching to high grade ore when prices drop. Shutting down a mine is a very expensive process and something to be avoided at all cost.
Yet we have zero percent financing of trillion dollar deficits and the materials space is wilting. If you think closing a mine is expensive you should try reopening one. Imagine if suddenly energy became for all intents and purposes free..."and people looked back on this age and laughed at the total insanity of it all." And to think "they didn't even see it coming."
yes and demand only in nascent stages. who fills that demand? but if i owned a gold mine today right now in this environment, i would go fishing. gold will be worth a lot more later on, no sense selling it all now, it takes the same amount of work next year
Exactly right. Which tells me any management that does not go fishing right now is being forced to sell at these levels. Hence, they are already nationalized.
the BANK provides the demand..."with sweaty wads of Woodrow Wilsons"...or Obama's as the case may be. (the Million Dollar Bill. "here's a thousand of them...is that good enough?")
They already sold. Miners typically sell their production on the futures market several years ahead. There is no reason for them to shut down untill they use up the capital they already collected.
If you're talking about ABX, then yes... but they "learnt" their lesson and bought out their hedges back around 2009. I'd guess most miners are no longer hedging gold prices in anticipation of it going higher.
Problem is, with this supposed manipulated price drop, will it scare miners to start hedging?
Hmmmm. "Equity market up 130 percent in four years. Goldcorp down 80." Neahhhh, they're not borrowing a dime!
Most gold miners have completely cleared their hedge books a while ago. Barrick being one of the last holdouts.
http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/gdx?source=search_general&s=gdx wow...the whole complex is only down 36% year to date! CRACK THE WHIP COCKFAG!
Yes but meanwhile most mine owners have to pay off huge loans and account for the depreciation of equipment, etc. They can't stop until they declare bankruptcy.
"If I owned a gold mine I would go fishing right now"
Not that simple. Gold is generally distributed deeply in the earth's crust, often hundreds of meters down, and requires shaft (longwall) mining as opposed to open pits. You can't just walk away from a longwall mine and come back after your Rip Van Winkle nap. The shafts will fill with water in most places, supports and equipment will deteriorate and corrode, and re-opening the mine will be a very, very expensive proposition.
And then there's the matter of re-hiring your engineers, foremen and crews back from your competition.
boy you should see when they close those railroads what happens. FIRE AND BRIMSTONE I TELL YA! (i think Union Pacific is on it's last legs myself...i'd go all in and short the thing.) http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/unp?source=search_general&s=unp ooops, my bad. "that's only up 17.3% ytd." don't worry though buddy...performance shmorance. total return is for DOPES.
Imagine the cost to mine if there would be another oil shock.
It's not a question of 'actual' gold and silver for sale, whatever that means, and it's not a question of 'manufactured' gold and silver for sale. It's a question of whether owners of all real, physical gold and silver currently in existence, above or below ground, are WILLING TO SELL or are READY TO BUY more. Those who understand sound money have entirely different definitions of saving and investment than those who have no idea what sound money represents. And so it is not at all mysterious that most, meaning 98% or more of Westerners, including Wall Street, most 'financial consultants' and most central bankers, have no comprehension as to how gold and silver savers think. And that is what's going to determine who survives after the disastrous wealth transfer that is coming. In fact, those who don't understand sound money are the same who do not, can not and will not see that wealth transfer coming.
the current one's been pretty impressive. "state sponsored" even. still want more eh?
They've barely begun. There's - what is it, $18 trillion? - in bank deposits in the U.S. alone that want seizing. Last night on the radio I heard one of those gubmint PSA's, attacking "old ladies keeping cash in the mattress" and exhorting us all to "put your money in the BANK, where it's FDIC INSURED!".
oh the humanity! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_Ct23WEVjwc
based on these comments I'm willing to assume gold to 700$ by tomorrow
all i hear on the radio is ads selling "diamonds", mattresses, and buying gold.. that's nearly all they play, the gold ads are usually on the country and christian stations. sometimes on the classic rock or 70s/80s/90s/today shit.. also the house flipping seminar ads are back. but whatever trust your gut and all.
Before you attempt to talk about silver and gold, you might want to learn about how the market operates. One, dealers hedge their purchases so they NEVER have to worry about price. Premiums rising is usually a reflection of their concern over having their contracts filled.
Two, mints provide detailed sales figures which allow buyers and collectors to measure demand, mintages, etc. For example, the US mint has sold more eagles in the first four months of the year than any year EVER.
Three, because central banks and governments refuse to provide private audits, because ETF funds are hardly transparent, how would you know the actual amount of silver and gold is available? You HEARD something?
Finally, there are some well educated people on this board with an excellent understanding of the pm markets. I suggest you try listening first and writing later.
I strongly suspect that adept dealers adequately hedge their stock precisely so they do not lose their profit margins in events such as this. For those prudent enough to conduct business proper in such fashion, they are more likely than not, swimming in an abundance of windfall profits from paper shorts.
As a related aside…
… This is It
Shorting the Au ETF close to the marginal cost of production only dries up the stock for retail buyers. Dropping it more will only bring out the CBs from the BRIC & Friends.
Suddenly, the flotilla of fishing boats and pleasure yachts has competition from giant industrial trawling factories.
Game on, fiat!
Not. Quitting.
It's fuckin personal now.
LOL...I agree...
Don't let it get personal, thats how they crawl into your head on pricing.
Just calmly exchange fiat for physical whenever you can (or want) knowing fiat will always go down in value and pricing power against oranges, apples, bread, milk etc. over the long haul.
It is really as simple as that. All they can do is print/digitize & devalue what they print. They know it, we know it.
Whats a hamburger cost in yen these days is probably an even simpler analysis in a zero interest world, gotta be pushing 1,000 yen (without even looking) ;-)
They do crawl under my skin but under the direction of ZH, calmly stack...calmly.
IridiumRebel,
Did you sell your house yet?
Fuckin thing Is still for sale. I do show the shit out of it tho!
Big Mac costs 819 yen
Thanks James, I knew it had to be getting up there.
Thats the problem with jacking around with a monetary unit in some ill concieved social experiment ie Keynesian socio-economics...prices are never allowed to fall, no matter if your income flatlines or falls.
Leading to...still more statist interventions, welfare, food stamps, subsidies to corporations (welfare as well) in order to maintain profitability and the like.
Its like some giant make-work project for the well connected elites and pols, sold to us as for our own good...pretty sinister really, when one peels away the layers.
Sound Advice! Excepting a(n) hamburger is now extinct replaced by a "bute hossburger".
They really stuffed up this time. They are used to owning govt, regulators, judges and politicians so thought they could always escape any problem they made for themselves bymaking the people pay- by changing laws.
Their big problem is that it doesn't matter what they do in the West, Asia is the 'one' killing them. All that gold and silver permanently transferred to the East whilst they continually manipulated the price low.
And now Asia is on a bigger buying spree that will swamp physical supply. The corrupt Banks have shot themselves. Good luck trying to change Ownership laws in Asia!
LOL It will be Asians that hand JPM's anus to them on a plate.
I don't think they'll actually hand it over though because in Asia, anus on a plate is considered a delicasy.
Usually sliced. Spicy calimare rings - yum. Although it would take quite a bit of hot sauce to make sliced JPM anus palatable, compared with ordinary pigs anus.
That'a a hell of an idea.!
Snopes: False from 2011
http://www.snopes.com/politics/medical/28thamendment.asp
If a c.c. is convened it exposes the entire contract to debate, by the usual scumbags, not just one poorly thought out policy that won't be enforced anyway. This is not a bad idea, it's Citizens United for slavery and labor camps, for all. The Constitution is fine, its the criminals that must be dealt with. DYOH
More than that, if a C.C. is convened, then we might have the chance to make a BIG reset of the federal government!
State Governments I think are hardly corrupt in comparision to washington, and are much easier for the people to influence.
You must live in a comparatively honest state. Try living in California and putting any faith in government.
When the revolution starts, the most heinous killings will be in Sacramento.
The Constitution is just fine the way it is.
The problem is that the Constitution has been treasonously and unlawfully ignored. Repealing some bad amendments and instating some new “adherence” amendments is all that would be required to get the job done and send an enforceable message.
A convention invites further co-opting and corruption to a plausible end that may well be far worse than what the framers have outlined in the original document.
Be careful what you wish for. A Constitutional Convention could just as easily repeal the Second Amendment! (And don't give me this God given right to bare arms B.S.)
I'm sure you mean well, but as the government has been co-opted by the financial sector (read international bankers), the Constitution and common law replaced with Merchant and Admiralty law, your little amendment is terribly naive and useless. Further, your emphasis on Congress, without accounting for the Executive and Judiciary shows a level of political ignorance that is to be pitied.
Please remember this simple idea: liberty and the State exist at opposite ends of the control function. To the degree you empower the State (Constitutions, laws and legal systems, police power, Etc.) you diminish all liberty and substitute slavery in its' place.
The People are incapable of controlling or governing the use of power and influence over any elite group given the ability to rule. There has NEVER been an exception to this rule.
If you want the Constitution, eliminate every amendment after number ten, then eliminate the ascendency of contract law over common law (Constitutional law). It is not a panacea, but is the only useful idea worth considering.
PM shortages are only going to get worse and worse.
+1
those that are holding/accumulating won't want to spend/sell any of them until they have to.
game of chicken, a chicken in every pot bitchez! drive the price of gold down, thank you thank you, please take my shitpaper for [gold] money... thank you thank you. the only poor bastards in the game are the one selling paper money.
I went to a gun show today in a large American city. A dealer was selling silver. He priced his American Eagles at $35.00 and they were being bought.
Side note I have gone to gun shows for years. I have followed the firearms industry for years. If anyone tells you there is a magazine shortage now, today, they are full of it.
The firearms industry must have been going all out the last few weeks because from a visit to my local gun store this morning(they had literally thousands) of AR mags in stock to the gun show visit if you need a mag they are out there.
Plenty of cheap ammo of all calibers on sale to fill those magazines?
Yes, plenty of cheap ammo too. The gun shows in my areas have magazines and semi-auto rifles, the latter at still somewhat inflated prices, but enough to go around. Even the online people like Lucky Gunner have good bulk deals on ammo again (1000 round boxes of AR 15 Lake City in mil 5.56 for .83 a round). I don't get why people are freaking out.........there still seems to be plenty out there.
You consider .83 cents a round (5.56) cheap?
I used to get this at WalMart for $24 a box. It's back in stock finally at ableammo.com--for $122 a box.
http://www.ableammo.com/catalog/winchester-pistol-ammunition-usa9mmvp-fu...
Look through the site and see if you still think ammo in popular calibers is cheap and readily available.
Im in Houston and I can tell you that there are about 10 stores within 10 miles of my home that sell firearms and ammo. It is just now starting to be restocked with ammo and even a week after the failure of the gun bill, ammo is still rationed by the stores. You can only buy a total of 3 boxes of ammo from Academy. I was paying $350 for 1000 rounds of 556. Now its almost double that price.
Same in San Diego. Ran down to the range when they said they were getting 3000 rounds of .40 in. By the time I got there it was all gone. One guy bought it all. I won't tell you what he paid for it. It makes me sick to think I may have to exchange one of my maple leaves for ammo. That is if I can even get a chance to purchase any.
Miffed;-)
Side note I have gone to gun shows for years. I have followed the firearms industry for years. If anyone tells you there is a magazine shortage now, today, they are full of it.
The firearms industry must have been going all out the last few weeks because from a visit to my local gun store this morning(they had literally thousands) of AR mags in stock to the gun show visit if you need a mag they are out there.
There hasn't ever been a mag shortage it's the items you fill them with that is hard as hades to get.A dollar a round for .308 ball is insane.
That is FGM Match pricing a year ago.
Better yet try a brick of 22LR, $65-100.00.
9mm?, forget it.
"There hasn't ever been a mag shortage"
All I know is I haven't been able to buy additional magazines for my 9 mm and .45 Glocks anywhere since December, either on-line or at my local gun shop. I'd love to know where all these magazines are being sold. From Glock's own website:
To our valued customers: Thank you for visiting our website. Glock magazines of all varieties are currently in huge demand and short supply. We are receiving shipments of magazines on a regular basis. However, magazines are now on back order status. We are taking orders for Glock magazines and will ship them according to the order in which the invoices were created.
The big boys have more tricks, traps and fiat than the average person can contend with. They will therefore win every battle except the war at which point the whole show collapses under the weight of their constant theft, fraud and manipulation.
For anyone who can hold onto their precious metals to the very end, the reward will be sweet even though it will have been a long time coming.
The biggest problem is that people are fidgety and cannot view things beyond the picture painted by price rather than the picture painted by history.
Buy the PM's and forget you have them. This should help overcome your fiat induced anxieties.
If one has a few bogus FRN’s floating around with a reliable brokerage firm, why not short the paper market with futures or an inverse ETF in order to hedge your physical. Just saying…
To assist in our common cause, I have a truly dirt-cheap long-term solution that is just about ready to launch with an outstanding record of accomplishment for timing such operations. If interested in viewing associated equity curves, send me an email and I will hook you up.
Already listened to it on Chris Martenson's Blog.
This is probably true, will start the collapse and accelerate the FEDs physical attack on the United States of America's soil.
I concur with the author. I saw more buying than selling at the shop yesterday. My main shop had 1 (one!) AGE, zero Maples and 4 S.A.K.s and all out of ASEs. They were advertising being strong buyers of the above. My secondary shop had 6 AGE, 2 Maples and 8 S.A.K.s and a handful of ASEs. Junk was surprisingly abundant, so loaded up at 20.5x over face.
Your move, control freaks...
Bullion and coin sellers are just milking the people with their fatter premiums. If they were honest about their intentions, they would keep thee old premiums and sell as much as possible to expose the crooks.
Much as we protest, the reality is that just about everyone is in it for a fiat buck. Well keep collecting those fiat bucks as a store of value but do yourself a favour and pile them up next to your toilet where they will come in real handy eventually.
once the dealers are out...then you'll see the premium. "know your BUYER" not who your buying from. then YOU set the price of YOUR GOLD. "if it's not for sale" then surely you are a rich man indeed.
WTF are you on about? The premiums were quite reasonable considering supply - $70 for AGE; do the math on the 20.5x over spot - nothing wrong with that pricing, in fact the 90% silver is a screaming deal.
edit: "..do the math on the 20.5x over face -" (for the junk silver)
Hey bozo that's your chance to sell YOUR physical at those fatter premiums. Eniugh said.
If buyers are outselling sellers by 5 to 1 or 10 to 1, who are the ones that are happy to fill buy orders at such a beaten down price? Central banks? Who?