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# Guest Post: Gold-Silver Ratio In Phase Space

Submitted by The World Complex

Gold-Silver Ratio In Phase Space

The reconstructed phase space portrait is one tool that can be used to gain insight into the dynamics of complex systems, whether these systems be natural or man-made.

Today we will use these tools to look at precious metals.

The near-constant slope over long stretches of this plot tells us that gold is already increasing in price exponentially. So don't say that gold price will increase exponentially during a financial crisis. It is already doing so, and has been since early 2001 (notwithstanding the recent turmoil).

The break in slope in late 2005 tells us that the gold price suddenly began to increase more rapidly. I don't know if anything unusual happened in late 2005, but there was a bland warning by the ECB issued in December 2005 about growing global financial imbalances.

Reconstructing phase space portraits normally requires two or more time series, sampled at equivalent intervals. You can simply plot one series against the other (a scatter plot). If you are using excel or a similar program, this is remarkably easy.

Looks impressive--the gold line represents a gold:silver ratio of about 60. Deviations from that line represent deviations in this ratio. Silver's rise to nearly \$50 in 2011 causes the funny looking nose on the graph at upper right. The curve represents the time evolution of the system, which moved in herky-jerky fashion from the lower left (in January 2000) towards the upper right of the graph (a little while ago). Each plotted point represents the state at the end of each month until roughly the present.

For graphs covering at least an order of magnitude, it may be worth using logarithmic axes.

The problem with these graphs is the presence of the US dollar. Most of the action in the plot is due to the declining value of the US dollar. To remove it, let us consider only the gold:silver ratio itself.

There are a number of long-accepted methods for projecting a single data series into a state space of more than one dimension. The intuitively obvious approach is to plot the data against its first (and higher, if desired) time derivatives. The approach I have used most commonly in these pages is a time delay plot, in which the respective observations are plotted against another, older observation. The lag is the number of time steps between the two observations, and there are prescribed methods for establishing an ideal lag.

Taking the month-end ratio of the gold price to the silver price, plotting it against a lagged copy of itself (delayed by one year), we see the following.

We are presently near where we started (just before the last financial crisis, and currently following a trajectory similar to that which we followed in the summer of 2008 (the yellow dot represents where we would be if April ends at today's prices). Given what we've recently experienced in the metals markets and stocks, it is extremely worrisome to consider we are only at the equivalent of mid-summer 2008!

There is more to the story--plotting phase space in only two dimensions can be a little risky because the third dimension may convey a lot of information. To create the third dimension, we apply a second lag equal to the first--so that the third axis represents an observation two lag periods behind the observation plotted on the first axis.

In the above graph, the red curve represents the 2-d projection shown above plotted on a reference plane (z=55)--and the green curve represents the 3-dimensional phase space portrait shown relative to the reference. Where there are green dashed lines between the 3-d and 2-d plots, the 3-d plot is above the reference plane, and where there are red dashed lines, the 3-d plot lies below the reference plane.

In the 3-d plot, we see that the current trajectory (near the bottom of the graph) is quite a bit below the trajectory during the crisis of 2008. It may be that the 2008 financial crisis was one of financial institution solvency, whereas our current crisis is starting to look like one of financial system failure. If this is the explanation for the differing trajectories then my projection is that we are going to see something we haven't seen before.

The gold-silver ratio has the potential to rise to heights never before seen. The reason is that major crises encourage hoarding and flight; and it is much easier to flee with a million dollars in gold than a million dollars in silver.

## Comment viewing options

Sun, 04/28/2013 - 23:14 | IridiumRebel

Roughly 60 to 1 ratio now from gold to silver? Fuckin bull shit. Thanks for the sale I guess you motherfuckers.

Sun, 04/28/2013 - 23:24 | nope-1004

Although this statement is true in theory:  it is much easier to flee with a million dollars in gold than a million dollars in silver

Would like some insight as to what percentage of the global pop has a million dollars, LIQUID!  Sure there are those who have high net worth (on paper), but who has the ability to take or transform their wealth into 1 million dollars of gold right now?  I bet a very small fraction of the population.

And why is the assumption that some "fleeing" must be done as it relates to owing silver or gold?  This article is a bit MSM-ish.  It plants a supposition or two, then draws a conclusion that is not necessarily true.

Sounds to me like buddy is on the hunt for some physical silver on the cheap - Gold already out of his reach.

Sun, 04/28/2013 - 23:23 | ratso

The World Complex rocks.

Sun, 04/28/2013 - 23:51 | Pinto Currency

There are probably ~ 250 million to 500 million oz. of physical gold (net of leased gold) held by central banks and about another 4.5 billion oz. held outside c.b.'s.

Of silver, there are ~ 1 billion oz. of visible inventory - far, far less than gold in dollar value.

Gold may well be remonetized by govs/c.b.s which would give it a big lurch in price.

The market (ctiizens) will remonetize silver for day-to-day purchases so it may lag somewhat if gold is remonetized by central planners - but there are much smaller inventories of silver available to market in the meantime.  And there are critical industrial applications for silver - much less for gold.

A mugs game to predict with certainty what will happen.  Citizens are certainly voting with their feet in grabbing silver right now.

Mon, 04/29/2013 - 00:14 | Jam Akin

Since the article makes little sense, here's a distriction.  From Yahoo comes word of a feminine counterpart to the attire of India's answer to Mr. T.  On the link modeled by another fine BRIC product, Caroline Correa.

“Zac Posen has indeed designed an entire gown made out of gold. Not gold fabric, but actual 24-karat paillettes. Okay, truth be told - paillettes covered in 24-karat gold leaf. But, still! An entire dress with \$1.5 million worth of material!”

http://www.contactmusic.com/photo/caroline-correa-tff-as-good-as-gold_3614998

Mon, 04/29/2013 - 01:22 | Herd Redirectio...

He doesn't address the suppression.  So which one has been suppressed more?  If currency becomes gold-backed again within the next couple years then maybe its gold, but if things kind of meander along like they have been, with no single catalyzing event, just the continuing process of the world's populace losing faith in fiat and government.

Mon, 04/29/2013 - 02:38 | Manthong

Duh..   banks ain't got no silver

just wait till all the paper fries to see what flies..

Mon, 04/29/2013 - 04:30 | TwoShortPlanks

Those tracks are dope. I love F1.

Mon, 04/29/2013 - 07:23 | SafelyGraze

the prices of gold and silver are highly correlated

mainly because of gold's use in photography and silverware, which perfectly tracks silver's

the price of gold and the size of the money supply and the size of the national debt are highly correlated for the same reasons

Mon, 04/29/2013 - 07:33 | BigJim

LOL

Mon, 04/29/2013 - 07:26 | francis_sawyer

@nope [And why is the assumption that some "fleeing" must be done as it relates to owing silver or gold?]

~~~

I agree 100% & that was my very first thought... Though I liked all the charts, the conclusions were irrelevant... Worse ~ Why go to all that trouble to make a case, then practically pin the whole argument on the final decision being made to FLEE an area?...

Sounds Simon Black-ish to me...

Mon, 04/29/2013 - 01:32 | Deo vindice

Silly me. I always thought the purpose of graphing was to clarify something to one's mind. Not to confuse.

When you use an illustration in a speech to make a point, and then have to explain the illustration ... you've lost the audience.

Mon, 04/29/2013 - 01:59 | Wile-E-Coyote

No this is what happens when you let your four year old play in your office. Crayon-paper they just can't help themselves, moth to a flame.

Mon, 04/29/2013 - 02:50 | Manthong

There is nothing about those plots that do not supremely correlate with the mind of a statist / politician.

Mon, 04/29/2013 - 08:07 | 1000 splendid suns

With rigged markets, do any of these doodles matter? Like playing idiot poker. Just get out of paper related assets.

Mon, 04/29/2013 - 05:11 | malikai

Here's a simple graph. In summary, we're on the razor's edge.

http://blog.quantsig.net/2013/04/29/gold-silver-ratio/

Mon, 04/29/2013 - 07:38 | Captain Kink

I never really understood the term, "mental masturbation"... until now.

Mon, 04/29/2013 - 00:11 | El Oregonian

" voting with their feet in grabbing silver right now"

You mean beat'in feet to grab it with BOTH HANDS...

Fixed.

Mon, 04/29/2013 - 09:26 | Dewey Cheatum Howe

Yeah and if we go back to a gold backed standard, coinage is not going to be in gold but most likely silver. Way I see it you save gold you spend silver. It is easier to create smaller denominations in silver than gold if the money is to be actually worth something and not be a debt note like the US dollar,

Sun, 04/28/2013 - 23:54 | DoChenRollingBearing

Nonetheless, new ideas and new ways of looking things (FOFOA is a great example) sometimes come right out of the blue like this.

Thank you, Tyler, for putting up a thought-provoking piece!

Mon, 04/29/2013 - 01:46 | macholatte

So this might come under the heading of some guy got stoned and screwed around with excel and made some funny looking graphs and then decided to write up a rational for it before he sobered up ..... or not.

Question is:  Does it matter?

If I was going to flee and didn't want to get caught with a ton of PM's I'd just sell them and wire the money some place else or trade for diamonds.  Remember that guy trying to get out of Cyprus with the trunk full of gold? So maybe that scenario is not relevant. Maybe the charts are. I don't care.

A squirrel dying in front of your house may be more relevant to your interests right now than people dying in Africa.

Mark Zuckerberg

Mon, 04/29/2013 - 07:18 | Doña K

In my opinion, his statement of fleeing is metaphoric. The portabilty of gold v. silver is and will always be an advantage. Silver's advantage is its utility as a commodity, affordabilty to those with lesser means and ease in frequent transactions.

One argument on the transactions, is the 1/10 oz. gold coin, but the commission % on the smaller gold pieces are not as attractive as silver coins.

IMHO, the ratio will hover around 60/1 until the archaic proverbial "when the shoeshine boy and the elevator operator are starting to talk about PM's instead of the ponys". In which case, silver will break its bounds and lower the ratio.

Sun, 04/28/2013 - 23:27 | sunaJ

The author is f*cking insane.  I love it.  I'm not fleeing anywhere.  I'm here to fight, bitchez.

Sun, 04/28/2013 - 23:44 | Ignatius

My thinking has been that gold would out-perform for the fact that gold is a reserve asset.  Joe six-pack seems to see it otherwise:  gold available while silver is SOLD OUT locally.

Sun, 04/28/2013 - 23:57 | sunaJ

Let's extrapolate a few things.  First of all, this author does nothing to address what we all know is the crisis right now: physical vs. paper, so a lot of this pricing is irrelevant.  We have entered a new phase, alright, but it is one where paper has been used to manipulate the price and that ever-so-trusty tool is breaking before our eyes.  People recognize this and smart people with big money surely recognize this.  Western governments are late to the game, of course, because they are most dependent upon and enraptured with the fantasy of fiat.

If we live in an oligarchical society now, you can believe that at least in the United States, it will be the 1% that ends up with the vast majority of the gold.  Do you want to play by their rules?  People will seek alternatives to theft and tyranny.  They will trade chickens for light bulbs if they have to, but they will jump to silver without even batting an eye at what the government tells them to "use."  So this author presupposes a lot of things, but he thinks that the ratio of silver to gold can be infinitely large, when anyone that can read the simple datum of mined silver to mined gold would tell you otherwise.

The author has said "we are going to see something we haven't seen before."  He should have left it at that.

Mon, 04/29/2013 - 00:03 | Ralph Spoilsport

But, these graphs are in 3-D!

Mon, 04/29/2013 - 05:30 | Doña K

DP

Mon, 04/29/2013 - 05:19 | Doña K

That's also a metaphor. He is telling us that prices have the potential to go extragalactic in a space-time continuum. Thus, you do need a 3 and a 4 dimensional graph modeling.

Mon, 04/29/2013 - 10:44 | bernorange

Yes.  That's one more D than normal - for when you want that extra edge. /Nigel Tufnel

Mon, 04/29/2013 - 00:14 | PSEUDOLOGOI

So, the more interesting question is this:  How much gold has been extracted from the people by all of the cash for gold outfits?  who owns these outfits? who is getting the bars of gold after all this jewelery is melted down?

This has happened before, when commies needed precious metals to buy stuff abroad, they engineered a famine (well, they didn't kill the crops, they simply sold all the grains for foreign currency) and offered to give a cup of grain for silver/gold.  At least today they are exchanging for paper money... I wonder for how long?

Mon, 04/29/2013 - 09:48 | Dewey Cheatum Howe

Gold vs silver for Joe six-pack is fairly straightfoward, Joe six-pack doesn't have lots of excess dollars to spend on gold based on the price, it is a little too far out of most joe six-packs discretionary budgets except for 1/10 ounce coins (a joe six-pack sized denomination) which there is a shortage of btw so silver is the next best thing from a price standpoint. Small money chases the smaller metal based on price and there is a lot more of it than there is big money. Either way we can all agree on one thing he who is not holding debt and something tangible will be the last men standing when this shit show finally blows up.

I still say silver will recover above \$30 and gold above \$1500. Wait until Obamacare kicks in that is going to be the death knell of the US economy. That is going to push people over the edge when the find out the old bait and switch routine was pulled on them and they were sold a bill of goods. The panic stampede is going to start then when the matrix wakes up and starts running for every safe haven they can possibly find.

I personally believe anyone sitting on silver now if they can hold it long enough is going to get a better deal on gold later flipping it back as far as price per ounce than the current sale goes when it does go back to or above premuim being asked now as a buy price from a dealer directly for resale.

Mon, 04/29/2013 - 00:18 | PSEUDOLOGOI

"If this is the explanation for the differing trajectories then my projection is that we are going to see something we haven't seen before."

We are cursed: We live in interesting times indeed...

You know, lots of people think that there's going to be some huge, climactic and migratory end to all of this...  There won't be any fireworks to signal The event...

Those who are paper rich or wealthy will wake up with nothing one morning.  The rest of the world already has nothting.

So, do you expect to see the 1% occupy the Wallstreet or something? I don't think so.  I do expect to see Huge celebrations when Eartlings can put this nighmare behind us...  I suspect there won't be any pity for anyone who gets wiped out.

We all start fresh.  A clean slate.

Mon, 04/29/2013 - 01:17 | ebworthen

I was going to say/ask the same thing; if I'm hunkering down which is the better value/price point?

Looks like Silver at the moment, though I'd buy Gold too, of course.

Mon, 04/29/2013 - 04:11 | disabledvet

This looks more like fun with an etch a sketch than anything that exists "rationally." It is fun to add fun to an equation..."children playing without inhibition." We all know the equation with silver and gold though and that is in times of stress it is highly "ineleastic" or "price sensitive" with very little inputs. This makes for some truly extraordinary moves which...when overlaid with "fun" causes "various monetary authorities to scurry about to gather their little children" (margin rates) and tell them "play time is over, dinner is ready." Should be yet another fascinating week for a substance everyone says they should but no one knows why they need it. I feel as well like we've been here before...can't explain why though.

Mon, 04/29/2013 - 01:40 | spine001

Forget about the explanations all explanations are bullshit. The phase diagram is showing signs of instability and the exploration of new phase space indicates danger level lack of stability in the system suggesting that we are about to jump to another attractor in the world economy. That means lost control for the CBs. Again impossible to know when we are getting there.

Until next time,,

Engineer

Mon, 04/29/2013 - 02:26 | Kirk2NCC1701

My Chief Engineer flagged the subspace for these PM ratios, when Earthlings finally get Transparent Aluminum. ;-)

Mon, 04/29/2013 - 09:29 | mickeyman

Perfect, thank you.

Mon, 04/29/2013 - 01:50 | jeebus

The US has by far the most millionaires with over 5 million. Next closest are a bunch of countries that all have a million millionaires. So, there are literally tens of millions of people whom have at least \$1,000,000 of liquidity.

Mon, 04/29/2013 - 07:37 | samcontrol

How many do you know with a million in paper silver?

Mon, 04/29/2013 - 09:28 | mickeyman

Actually, you're right. I am looking for some cheap physical silver. Gold too. And both are cheaper now than they were a few weeks ago.

Mon, 04/29/2013 - 09:39 | beaker

This is like cloud watching.   I see a dolphin riding a horse in that one chart....  no, maybe thats an airplane smoking a cigarette.

Mon, 04/29/2013 - 03:28 | TraderTimm

Wow, n-dimensional plot and you know where it is going to go? Someone call in Doctor Who to square up your tesseract.

I don't see how you can even make the simplest prediction doing this:

Original series: 1,2,3,4,5,6

ColA, ColB, ColC

1

2         1

3         2       1

4         3       2

5         4       3

6         5       4

And plotting them on a three-dimensional graph. Its an interesting manipulation of data, but fuckall for predicting jack squat.

Mon, 04/29/2013 - 03:59 | Aeternus

Translation for the chartmentally impaired.

BTFD!

And for the acronympaired.

Sun, 04/28/2013 - 23:22 | prains

Fleeing

that concept needs more exploration;

is said fleeing going to be orderly? no

is the act of fleeing a form of panic? yes

if panic is to ensue, will it be orderly?no

if not orderly, then how disorderly? very fucking disorderly

the entire narrative of the article comes down to this premise;

it is much easier to flee with a million dollars in gold than a million dollars in silver.

true but irrelevant if you're not willing to explore the concept of "fleeing". Where are you going to flee? after your third tank of gas runs out will there be anyone left to sell you a fourh tank of gas? will you have to kill for that tank of gas? THEN WHAT ARE YOU TALKING ABOUT?

If you are incapable of extrapolating the many different facets of the act of "fleeing" then who cares if it's easier to carry a million in gold over silver 'cause at some point if you can't run for four hours at 180 bpm in the dark over rough terrain carrying your last child your fucked anyway.

Sun, 04/28/2013 - 23:56 | DoChenRollingBearing

Fleeing to Peru by plane with, say, \$100,000 worth of gold would be easy...  It's the timing that's a bitch.

Mon, 04/29/2013 - 01:32 | GlobalCtzn

The timing question IMO is answered with "While you still can." Better to be a couple years early than a day too late. I cannot imagine getting stuck in the U.S. when it all really goes down. Me, I am already gone............

Mon, 04/29/2013 - 03:26 | Jorgen

Easy if you do it right - see #3509181 However, you should rather take a direct flight from the U.S. to Peru. Here is a story of an American guy who was flying with his 150 gold coins to Panama via Mexico. He must have done it correctly with the U.S. Customs but well... their Mexican counterpart was a different experience.

Mon, 04/29/2013 - 06:37 | Al Gorerhythm

I timed it 8 years ago.

Mon, 04/29/2013 - 07:37 | samcontrol

my father timed it in 1978 PARIS , France. He said ...i will never pay these fuckers taxes! or any fucker!

Mon, 04/29/2013 - 00:09 | Seer

Yeah, ain't it a bit funny that the author can spout 3-D yet fails to THINK in three dimensions!

What's the logic in fleeing with a bunch of gold when the REASON that you're likely fleeing is because someone wants that gold- is there a place where there are no others who would also want that gold?  The greatest visibility is in the running.

If you have what looks like excess then EXPECT that you'll have to fight to keep/maintain it.  And in the future there won't be any "safe zones" where you can flee.

Mon, 04/29/2013 - 08:56 | Jumbotron

"If you have what looks like excess then EXPECT that you'll have to fight to keep/maintain it.  And in the future there won't be any "safe zones" where you can flee."

Now...drone strike in your direction in 3...2...1...

Mon, 04/29/2013 - 09:31 | mickeyman

That's not as true as you might think. I work in a lot of places in West Africa and occasionally rural SAm. If you can handle the simple life, there's lots of places to go where you won't have chaos (at least any more than usual) in the event of a financial meltdown--and where a little gold will go a very long way.

Mon, 04/29/2013 - 10:36 | Dewey Cheatum Howe

I don't know about fleeing but more like parking the boat in a harbor and waiting out the storm. Think of it this way I have excess dollars, I turn them into gold or silver. I like silver better for this rational and strategy than gold and I'll explain why. I have savings or excess discretionary dollars I want to protect so I go buy some silver. Silver right now is priced paper markets and production cost, that can't hold basically even with the premuims it is not overpriced since markup is expected. I lock in my dollars now at that floor price. No matter what happens with the dollars I really believe that basic production cost is not going to move down because of the simple fact you can't sell something for less than what it costs to get it out of the ground if you want to stay in business. So I am Joe six-pack, if I don't need that money right away locked into silver I let it sit and it will appreciate over time. If I need some cash right away regardless of deflation or inflation my silver is worth something and I can liquidate small quantities fairly quickly and easily when needed while holding it's purchasing power at the time I bought it. Gold on the other hand could take a short term blood bath downward unless the physical market completely decouples from the paper, silver not so much, it can't really go lower in the paper markets since that will decouple the physical from paper also. I don't believe gold is a bad investment either but it comes down to small money vs large money approach to this. Large money can tolerate larger pricing swings and can hold out longer while small money not so much. People living almost paycheck to paycheck with little savings, silver is the better bang for the buck and more importantly a fundamentally sound and sane approach to savings in the short term right now if you can get your savings out of the paper period.

It really is a back to basics approach to savings and wealth preservation approach in a tough economic environment which we are at the proverbial calm before the shit storm hits point.

Sun, 04/28/2013 - 23:09 | TahoeBilly2012

Last chart is the dreaded "look to the left labrador" chart, up oh.

Sun, 04/28/2013 - 23:19 | Ralph Spoilsport

I see a penguin and my water heater when it exploded.

Sun, 04/28/2013 - 23:30 | TahoeBilly2012

I have been working on a hybrid charting system using Elliot and Rorschacher.....

Sun, 04/28/2013 - 23:31 | Ralph Spoilsport

I'd wave but I knocked over my ink bottle.....

Mon, 04/29/2013 - 00:13 | Seer

I thought I saw Homer Simpson.

Mon, 04/29/2013 - 08:15 | WmMcK

With the virgin Mary?  Me too.

Mon, 04/29/2013 - 00:15 | Jam Akin

+1

Sun, 04/28/2013 - 23:12 | H E D G E H O G

wow. just looked @ those charts with my 3-D glasses i lifted fromm the Groods last night. i'm sold..........

Mon, 04/29/2013 - 00:15 | Seer

Still trying to track down a hit of acid so I can REALLY understand what it all means...

Mon, 04/29/2013 - 06:36 | Al Gorerhythm

Share the hedge.

Sun, 04/28/2013 - 23:18 | RealEstateWannabe

Mon, 04/29/2013 - 00:14 | LosOsos

It crossed retarded when it claimed that a near constant slope is an exponential increase.

Mon, 04/29/2013 - 01:33 | Robsabi

On a logarithmic scale, which at least one of his charts is using, a constant slope *does* equal an exponential increase.

Mon, 04/29/2013 - 07:33 | BandGap

These are polynomial functions, dipshit, not y=mx + b. The aim here is to present a linear graph through the use of first and second order derivatives. If you understand the basis ficntions it is easier to interpret the data.

The author would have been better served using 3-d contour plots. Some of that shit looks like it was drawn on an etch-a-sketch.

SPC Excel does a decent job with this type of data, too.

Sun, 04/28/2013 - 23:15 | Jim in MN

So then once Gold makes it to \$5,000 USD per ounce, as the Dow meets it at 5,000 to reestablish a 1:1 ratio, where will Silver be?  If the ratio blows out under extreme stress, could it possibly be 100?  \$50 Silver with \$5,000 Gold?  Sure it could.  But, from what we see here a price of \$80 or better would be more in line.

Sun, 04/28/2013 - 23:23 | Ralph Spoilsport

Only if the third axis is plotted on a log scale with three lag periods. Two just isn't confusing enough.

Mon, 04/29/2013 - 03:10 | theliberalliberal

log graphs.  turning noise into straight lines since 1746.

Sun, 04/28/2013 - 23:18 | kliguy38

Where are ya gonna flee???? When the SHTF there is NO place to go.......You better be ready now RIGHT WHERE YOU ARE

Sun, 04/28/2013 - 23:27 | dick cheneys ghost

I hear N Korea is nice this time of year.........

Mon, 04/29/2013 - 02:36 | Kirk2NCC1701

Clearly you don't get out much.

Mon, 04/29/2013 - 07:43 | samcontrol

There is no place to go......jajajaj

Do you want 100 more darthf.?

Sun, 04/28/2013 - 23:16 | sgorem

It kinda puts everything into a speculatory clusterfucktion enigma, or whatever.

Sun, 04/28/2013 - 23:23 | HoofHearted

I hated my last speculatory clusterfucktion enema.

Sun, 04/28/2013 - 23:30 | jomama

next time, don't get the jalapeño wash.

Sun, 04/28/2013 - 23:17 | fuu

Soooooo bullish?

Mon, 04/29/2013 - 09:00 | BeepBeepImAJeep

Bullish on higher dimensions

Sun, 04/28/2013 - 23:21 | Hulk

WTF ???

Mon, 04/29/2013 - 00:15 | xtop23

Reading that was like drinking too much Casa Nobles and having to rush to the toilet, to only seconds later, realize you've vomited up a trig professor into the bowl.

That quite literally sucked out a portion of my will to live.

If you plot 4 points in 8th dimensional space, draw a descending radius from its Y axis, scramble some eggs, bang 3 virgins, read James Clavell's Shogun in one sitting, find the square root of pi, and club a baby seal, the resulting data clearly indicates ...... annnnnnnnd I've gone crosseyed.

I award you no points, and may God have mercy on your soul.

Edit: While I do appreciate new ways of looking at things, and it takes guts to be the first guy into the breech with a different or interesting approach, I must admit it will take a significantly more intelligent man than I to grasp the truths ( if any ) revealed by such a system.

I just don't get it.

Mon, 04/29/2013 - 00:17 | Seer

I wish there were a way to nominate "Best Of" on ZH like on craigslist.  +1000

Mon, 04/29/2013 - 06:54 | PiratePawpaw

90% of all statistics can be made to support whatever you want them to.......

...50% of the time.

Mon, 04/29/2013 - 07:33 | BandGap

Excellent insight.

Linear algabra, the other white meat.

Sun, 04/28/2013 - 23:21 | Cacete de Ouro

FleeBook, the new FleeceBook?

Sun, 04/28/2013 - 23:23 | Confundido

Has anyone realized that unlike in the past, today there are metal detectors? How the fuck is one going to flee with gold anywhere? How the fuck is one going to hide it in one's property if the tax man will come with a metal detector?

Sun, 04/28/2013 - 23:25 | HoofHearted

Yes, we've thought of it. And it involves scattering lots of scrap metal just a few inches underground everywhere. Then burying a PVC pipe of the precious someplace under all of that field of crap.

And if you have 15 acres or so, good luck Mr. Revenooer.

Sun, 04/28/2013 - 23:55 | DoChenRollingBearing

+ 1 Yes

I predict many more up arrows...

Mon, 04/29/2013 - 10:38 | shovelhead

38mm coins fit perfectly in 1-1/2" pvc pipe.

Strapped to a basement joist with a couple of elbows looks like a sink drain. Hidden in plain sight.

Shhhhhhh. Don't tell anyone.

Lazy people need to be smarter than the rest.

Mon, 04/29/2013 - 11:01 | tsx500

Sun, 04/28/2013 - 23:26 | H E D G E H O G

if the tax man cometh here with said metal detector he will think he has hit the LEAD MOTHER LODE.............................

Mon, 04/29/2013 - 00:22 | Jam Akin

I just don't see any tax men toting metal detectors in my crystal ball...you'll have opportunities to "invest" some lead in many other ways though...

Mon, 04/29/2013 - 00:21 | Seer

The "tax man" is no match for my dog.  And, I suspect that my neighbor with all his pigs is in a better position: pigs can get pretty good traction in mud, humans not so much...

My neighbor has 292 acres.  Ready, set, go!

Mon, 04/29/2013 - 01:09 | Unknown Rider

Just flew back in from the ROK (Republic of Korea) tonight. On my way out of country I was stopped at bag scan because I had six one ounce silver coins. They searched my bag until they found them and then let me go when they saw they weren't gold. I don't think ASE look like explosives or knives, so gold is my guess. I asked about it and they shooed me away without answer. First time I've been pulled over for that one.

Mon, 04/29/2013 - 02:22 | Jorgen

If the value of the gold coins you want to take out of the U.S. exceeds US\$2,500, you need file AES and FinCen Form 105 with U.S. Customs. If you don't do that, your gold coins will be most likely confiscated. If you have gold coins valued less that US\$2,500 you don't have to declare it while taking them out of the U.S. Note: You declare the market value of the coins, not the face value. For example, the AGE with its face value of US\$50 is to be declared at US\$1,500+ as of this writing.

Mon, 04/29/2013 - 01:36 | enloe creek

put it in the body of your car

Sun, 04/28/2013 - 23:24 | jonjon831983

"Silver Slump Seen Luring Buyers as Wait Time Rises in Singapore"

"Holdings of bars fell to 54 ounces from 60,000 ounces two and a half weeks ago, according to founder Gregor Gregersen. It now takes at least six weeks for new supplies to arrive in the city-state up from two to three weeks previously, he said."

"A batch of 23,000 ounces is expected to be delivered tomorrow, with almost all destined for existing customers who pre-ordered, he said."

"“The Perth Mint is meeting the surge in demand for physical silver and gold by ramping up productivity as quickly as possible to ensure lead times are kept to an absolute minimum,”"

Sun, 04/28/2013 - 23:27 | SqueekyFromm

Whattabuncha CRAP. The Gold Shills are coming out of the woodwork to convince the stupid Gold Bug Retards that they are going to make a killing on gold when the price skyrockets. Sooo, here is a Gold Bug Nursery Rhyme I just wrote:

Baa Baa Gold Sheep

Baa Baa Gold Sheep,

Don't you have a brain?

They are pissing down your back

And they're telling you it's rain.

Baa Baa Gold Sheep

Think you'll score real big???

Lots of luck, you stupid schmucks. . .

Wait for the Flying Pig.

Squeeky Fromm, Girl Reporter

Sun, 04/28/2013 - 23:27 | jomama

who said make a killing?  PMs are merely solid, tangible preservers of wealth.

unlike who-the-fuck-knows what else to invest in these re-hypothecated days.

Sun, 04/28/2013 - 23:35 | dr.charlemagne

PMs, the ultimate defensive play

Sun, 04/28/2013 - 23:34 | H E D G E H O G

it was okay until " stupid schmucks" squeeky, now how bout "squeekin" your head back up your ass.

Sun, 04/28/2013 - 23:59 | SqueekyFromm

Hi Hedgehog!!!

Just because you liked it, and because I am on my third glass of Franzia White Zinfadel wine, here is another verse!

Baa Baa Gold Sheep,

Have you any fleece???

No, we don't. The bullion guys. . .

They clipped it, every piece.

Squeeky Fromm, Girl Reporter

Mon, 04/29/2013 - 00:24 | Beam Me Up Scotty

"I am on my third glass of Franzia White Zinfadel wine"

I see you got the ladder and went top shelf tonight!

Mon, 04/29/2013 - 00:57 | Supernova Born

delete

Mon, 04/29/2013 - 01:20 | ebworthen

Franzia White Zinfandel?

Who is peeing on who's back?

So, do you have your money with Cramer and the Casino?

Mon, 04/29/2013 - 01:38 | SqueekyFromm

EBW:

Actually, I don't have any money in the Kramer because I got that one for free from my father, who says I have to pass it on to any kids I may have. Which will be NONE, EVAH!  I have been kinda wanting a Casino, but since I bought the Riviera with the 3 P-90's, that itch has been scratched. Plus, the Ibanez 105 is a full hollowbody, as is my little AG75 sooo, it would kind of be overkill to get the Casino. Plus, I have one of those Dot Studio's I keep around to play on outside with the Amplug so as I don't scare the birds and squirrels.

But I may still get a Casino. Or maybe even the Sorrento, I am trying to hold off, though, and not just be an UBER-CONSUMER.

Squeeky Fromm, Girl Reporter

Mon, 04/29/2013 - 07:58 | samcontrol

we have some things in common like luck.....

..if you want a casino, sell. the shit you h ave in your portfolio..

the likes of paas,exk,ag,pzg,pslv,uslv,slv... . It is an all in casino type bet.
My. bet.

takes balls and don,t forget to time when to get out after the LAST paper rush on pms...

and tylers.... i CAN'T get physical ! and would NOT if i could now ..

Mon, 04/29/2013 - 11:17 | shovelhead

Squeeky,

At least tell me you got that Riv in goldtop...

You may not know shit about PM's but you really have good taste in guitars.

The 105 natural is just beautiful.

Sun, 04/28/2013 - 23:39 | sgorem

SqueekyFrommHell.....................

Sun, 04/28/2013 - 23:42 | Ralph Spoilsport
Sun, 04/28/2013 - 23:53 | SqueekyFromm

Hi Ralph!!!

OH, I haven't used that blog for quite a while. I did some newer stuff at posterous, among other places like The Birther Think Tank. But thank you for liking the Weiner stuff:

http://squeekyfromm.posterous.com/

Squeeky Fromm, Girl Reporter

Sun, 04/28/2013 - 23:58 | Ralph Spoilsport

You're welcome. I sense a kindred spirit in your snarkiness and the subject matter on your blog(s).

Cheers!

Mon, 04/29/2013 - 00:16 | SqueekyFromm

Ralph,

I haven't blogged since last October. I may start up again with a general politics one, but you can just get lost in them, and pretty soon they take over your life. Which, I want mine to be learning to play guitar, writing poetry, and taking care of my two cats and poor little orphan blue jay, Squawky. Who I have been trying to convince to move over to my new yard without luck. Plus, I help my BFF Fabia Sheen, Esq. at her law practice sometimes. Sooo, maybe I will sign up for law school one of these days or maybe not. I kinda of miss blogging, but there is also a hopeless feeling to it because the people who agree with you will like what you say, and the people who don't agree will never ever change their minds, no matter how much sense you throw at them. I wrote a kind of Emily Dickinsony poem once about it:

The Pen

Around the borders of our minds,

There is a little pen.

It has a gate,

And is not high,

But nothing enters in.

Squeeky Fromm, Girl Reporter

Mon, 04/29/2013 - 00:48 | silverserfer

i wonder what squeeky's post would be like if she went off her Abilify prescriptions

bitch be sniffin way to many of her own farts

Mon, 04/29/2013 - 01:18 | SqueekyFromm

SilverSlobberer:

You asked, "i wonder what squeeky's post would be like if she went off her Abilify prescriptions?"

ANSWER: If I was off my meds, then I would get psychotic, and no have idea what was real and what was fantasy. In that case, I would be just like you Gold Bugs, and I would be advising people to do crazy stuff like put whole bunches of money into some shiny yellow metal in the delusional belief that I was going to make a killing when it went to \$10,000 an ounce.

When it didn't, and I lost my blouse, I would become very depressed, and have to go on anti-depressant meds in addition to any anti-psychotic ones. Which leads me to wonder. . .Are you Gold Bugs all off YOUR meds???

SLAM DUNK!!!

Squeeky Fromm, Girl Reporter

(PS: I ought to get a TOUCHE' for that answer!)

Mon, 04/29/2013 - 01:28 | fonzannoon

Tell us squeeky, where do you keep your savings that makes you feel so confident that you can ridicule others?

Mon, 04/29/2013 - 02:10 | SqueekyFromm

fondlesanoon:

Well, my trust fund money is in VERY SAFE stuff, like stock in very good companies, bonds, and bank deposits. There is also some farm land that the family trust has. Plus, my house is paid for. My father and uncle are very smart and they watch over everybody's investments and they don't take big chances on speculative stuff. My father has a little gold set aside, but it is stuff he bought years and years ago with "chump change" as he calls it, and he is upset because he did not sell it earlier when it was up at 17 whatever. He says if it gets near there again, he is selling it to whatever idiot he can find who will buy it.

Squeeky Fromm, Girl Reporter

Mon, 04/29/2013 - 02:14 | fonzannoon

yeesh. good luck with that.

Mon, 04/29/2013 - 12:06 | Herd Redirectio...

Squeeky, put down the guitar, step away from the computer and get some exercise.  Is this the only male attention you receive?  WTF?

Also, does this sentence apply to you, or only other people: "the people who don't agree will never ever change their minds".   Because to me, it seems that the people of ZH have been sharing their wisdom with you, but you have been very slow on the take, and instead are trying to convince well-informed individuals they are delusional or don't know what they are talking about.

Mon, 04/29/2013 - 13:50 | noless

She doesn't care, she thinks in lyrics, the world can't intrude.

She determines her reality as she lacks the ability to reconcile extraneous negative outside input.

Mon, 04/29/2013 - 06:22 | Ghordius

LOL - aren't trust babies supposed to keep their mouths shut about their luck? If I were your uncle I'd be scolding you for writing the above

Mon, 04/29/2013 - 11:23 | buckethead

Even if you are accurately representing yourself, your comments display very little understanding of the means whereby you find yourself living so comfortably. Now maybe the trust is generational and has trustees who are wise and honest. I hope for your sake that it is true. That said, it doesn't serve others, or yourself to give advice on matters of finance based upon your limited understanding of what "daddy's people" do with regard to investing.

Either you're a guru, or a clown. Personally, I don't take advice from either.

Mon, 04/29/2013 - 02:00 | JOYFUL

(PS: I ought to get a TOUCHE' for that answer!)

TOUCHE OR DOUCHE?

PS: ps(psyop)or pms? tough calll Lynette? Best celebrity endorsement ever...Chas Manson Fam slams gold&silver holders...get your satanic ritual 'benny bucks' and 'light my fire'!!!! 60's be back - bitchez!

PPS: not a bad call tho, trying to off the Gerald ho!...everybody in DC in the day knew "Gerry" as the Michigan porn mafia kingpin aka Lesley(Lurch) Lynch Jr

Mon, 04/29/2013 - 02:01 | fonzannoon

There once was a girl named Squeeky

who was mentally up shits creeky

she ridiculed gold

her rationale didn't hold

soon she found herself out in the cold.

Mon, 04/29/2013 - 09:45 | buckethead

The last line needed an eeky.

Regards ~ TLK

Mon, 04/29/2013 - 11:06 | tsx500

...and now her future is quite bleak-ey

Mon, 04/29/2013 - 11:16 | buckethead

Because rat shack tin roofs are leaky?

Mon, 04/29/2013 - 11:18 | buckethead

Because rat shack tin roofs are leaky? Fat finger.... Delete function useful. Put it on a timed basis... Five minutes or something.

Mon, 04/29/2013 - 12:56 | silverserfer

ahh.. a trust fund baby this makes perfect sense. let me guess 80 lbs overweight and doesnt get out of the house at all. your "knowlege" of money consists of overhearing adults discuss matters at a dinner party while you plow thru the wine and cake.

"OMG why dont you all just like get a trust fund and buy a bunch of cats and play gutiar all day" "you gold bugs are soooo dumb!"

"LIKE OMG!!!"

Squeeky froth- worthless trust fund thumbsucker

Mon, 04/29/2013 - 06:20 | TheFourthStooge-ing

.

i wonder what squeeky's post would be like if she went off her Abilify prescriptions

He might stop pretending to be a girl. He'd still be a sackless prancer, though.

Mon, 04/29/2013 - 03:52 | JOYFUL

taking care of my two cats and poor little orphan blue jay, Squawky.

When Squawky bit Squeeky,

tings got a bit freeky,

seems Squawky bin doin a fox.

We knows foxes go rabid,

it's a lock, dagnabbit,

Squeeky done picked up

da pox.

nb...what else can you do with a dirtbag article like this cept have a lil fun?

Mon, 04/29/2013 - 16:18 | andrewp111

So Squeeky,

Since you are the expert on all squeeky things, perhaps you can help my squeeky cat. She seems to have lost her voice. She usually makes the sweetest squeeks and chirps, but today she can barely make a peep. I don't know what is wrong with her.

Sun, 04/28/2013 - 23:47 | Carl LaFong

You can't eat fiat...

Mon, 04/29/2013 - 00:28 | Seer

The reflection in gold is the inverse of what fiat is.  Gold doesn't do anything but reflect.  If you have a problem then you might look to address it through fiat; and good luck there.  If you're lucky you might get one of those fiat admirers to toss you a quarter for your poem: I don't think anyone can shave gold down far enough to match that quarter, so maybe that's your real issue- you're playing to the wrong crowd.

Mon, 04/29/2013 - 01:09 | SqueekyFromm

Seer:  What you said about "playing to the wrong crowd" is a saying that had its origins in Hans C. Andersens's "The Emperor's New Clothes." The original ending was very cynical, and despite the little boy's observations, the crowd continued to praise the Emperor's non-existent threads. Or as they said to the young child, "spiller for den forkerte crowd."

Han's wife was shocked by this ending and prevailed upon him to re-write it with the happier ending we all know and love.

Squeeky Fromm, Girl Reporter

Mon, 04/29/2013 - 07:45 | samcontrol

Lucky and educated , welcome to the club Squeeky.

Mon, 04/29/2013 - 02:26 | Bansters-in-my-...

@ Squeeky.... Was your cunt,no wonder you are squeeky.

Sun, 04/28/2013 - 23:24 | Frank N. Beans

"...it is much easier to flee with a million dollars in gold than a million dollars in silver."

flee?  this is the first I've heard that we have to flee.

Sun, 04/28/2013 - 23:39 | Transformer

Maybe he meant...  Flea.

Mon, 04/29/2013 - 00:34 | Seer

I distinctly thought I heard him say "free gold," but then again...

Careful!  He's got a gub!

http://www.tcm.com/mediaroom/video/224555/Take-the-Money-and-Run-Movie-C...

Mon, 04/29/2013 - 08:40 | andrewp111

If you are in the EU and you have real wealth, you might have to flee. You probably should get out before the barn door is shut as well. Remember, the Euro is a burning building with no exits, to quote William Hague.

Sun, 04/28/2013 - 23:28 | worbsid

Thanks, those are really neat graphs which proves that a decent program can plot anything to anything in ratios the bewilder the mind.  Then we can plot the derivatives of ratios and the three-D ratios of derivatives etc.etc.etc.  GMAFB

Sun, 04/28/2013 - 23:45 | Carl LaFong

Ridiculous hypothesis. Silver is in demand as both money and for industrial processes. Those who can't afford gold as hedge against fiat, buy silver. There is 11:1 ratio of silver to gold in the earth (gold/silver ratio vs 60:1 today). That implies an 11:1 price ratio at some point in the future, if and when the market for physical gold and silver becomes the market that makes the prices. Portability has nothing to do with it. If there is a panic away from fiat, it will be into both gold and silver. Gold may benefit first, but silver will get dragged along sooner or later.

Mon, 04/29/2013 - 00:49 | Seer

"Silver is in demand as both money and for industrial processes."

What's the demand from the "industrial processes" looking like these days?  The way that I see it industrial output is in terminal decline.  One cannot necessarily use today to judge tomorrow.  What would happen to the value of silver if industry is pretty much in the tank?  This isn't a far-fetched scenario.  My point here is that the fact that it's used in industrial processes might not be all the PLUS that you think it is, this might be support that won't be there in the future.  Better, IMHO, to stick to assessing based upon it being a currency rather than a commodity.

"There is 11:1 ratio of silver to gold in the earth (gold/silver ratio vs 60:1 today). That implies an 11:1 price ratio at some point in the future"

There's scarcity and then there's desirableness.  The "desirableness" is what I'm thinking is a bit sticky, humans being as fickle as they are.

I like silver (have some), but I just think there needs to be a bit more logic applied in order to make the sale that 11:1 pricing is guaranteed.  The only non-variable (I'll trust you on it) I see is the 11:1.

Mon, 04/29/2013 - 08:02 | samcontrol

We are at 60 or 50 to one....

I don,t really care if it ever gets to 11/1 . I'll cash in at 20 to one,,, not being greedy is the key :)

Mon, 04/29/2013 - 02:43 | honestann

The relationship is not simple.

One reason is, silver is consumed in many processes, and then becomes non-recoverable (at any reasonable price).  So from one perspective, silver could become more valuable than gold.  But that sure as hell is a long way away from the 50:1 to 60:1 range we see today.

Bottom line: the relationship is not simple.

Not to me, anyway.

Sun, 04/28/2013 - 23:34 | Oldwood

I kind of got over the whole "graph predicts future" thing with the global warming hockey stick graph. But gee, 3d aught to mean something more, right?

Sun, 04/28/2013 - 23:32 | AgShaman

What do you want? I can draw anything on my 'Etcha Sketch'

Mon, 04/29/2013 - 00:50 | Seer

Thanks for making me feel inferiror.  You happy now?!

Sun, 04/28/2013 - 23:32 | Fuku Ben

What are these rorschach tests?