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IceCap Asset Management: "Achtung Baby"
As Europe continues to churn nowhere but down economically, it seems that leading government officials everywhere have suddenly become fixed income experts. According to these financial wizards, declining yields from Italy and Spain is vindication that (once again) the worst is over. This is the point where we ask investors, government officials, and media to read beyond both the headlines and the first paragraph of investment reports. Just as the declining US unemployment rate is attributed to more and more people simply giving up hope (there’s that “word” again) and not an abundance of new jobs; the decline in sovereign bond yields is the result of domestic banks and pension funds buying new bonds from their respective governments – not an increase in confidence from international investors. While strong domestic demand for a government’s debt is usually a good sign, “forced” demand is not. By any measure the all-in strategy of demostics banks and pension funds investment in their own bonds is epic.
Of course, odds are this epic strategy will only end in disaster. The high concentration of investment is embarrassing for whomever is in charge of the fund and is really no different than directly raiding the pension fund assets. This is a shameful act and ultimately someone will have to pay for this Spanish mistake, which naturally leads us to Germany. And, in simple terms, the generosity threshold of the average German is pretty close to being breached.
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At this point in the world financial crisis, there is no way to avoid disaster.
I just want to know what they are waiting for.
they're waiting for their private security contractors to complete the no mans land ring fence around the compound
The day when no one (not in the club) owns anything.
...aside from a debt jubilee of course. The bankers intend to keep all the real assets they stole too. let's see how this goes motherfuckers.
Wait till everybody prints moar next month. Spx plus 10% in may
The choice is a controlled disaster or a total collapse disaster.
OK, let them print double or triple. But, do it all at once. Moar is better right? I dare them to.
the generosity threshold of the average German is pretty close to being breached.
What German generosity? Deutsch Bank alone can blow up th world many times over with its $500 Trillion derivative position.
very interesting that this is not our top story of the evening as well. Already the Wall Street Journal has come forth to issue a "retraction" of the ZH....is it a rumor? Hmmmm. "Dangerous things these rumors" and something tells me ABC News gave the "tap on the shoulder" to ZH this time. That's the old Banker's Trust...these guys were quite the wildmen back when Banking was BANKING (the 70's.) this was some serious derivative shit going on then WAY before these clowns at Goldman got all cocked up on the shit in the 90's. Deflations are a funny thing...unlike inflations where you can really do some serious financial "wilding" deflations bring out the Madoff problem (which still no one really wants to talk about.) namely "mislabeled" (not mispriced) risk. the best example is Worldcom where the CFO simply classified "the liabilities" as "assets." hard to deny the whoopsie on that one. this is why having the utmost integrity is so important in banking...you can have some REAL doozies in there if the folks don't come clean in the front office. don't even get me started on insurance companies...
Correct Smartstrike. Germans are virigins...clean and pure by default. And they keep on cheating as usual.
Deutsch Bank is a sewage.
That France graph is starting to resemble a black swan.
I am long gold, but I don't understand why the report says that a 14.8% decline in gold happens every 4,767 years. Correct me if I'm wrong but we had worse than that in 1980.
is this author trying to say Achtung Baby was not a good album? the rest of it isn't even worth reading.
Maybe they are saying we will have to wait Until the End of the World to determine if this fake market is Even Better Than the Real Thing
I got a disclosure notice from SCE's pension fund this morning . I just glanced at it but noted that about 15% was in govt, treasuries. Most of these funds base their contributions on an assumed rate of return. I can not see how they can get the typical 7 or 8 % most figure on and i am sure that they do not want to fund it based on any lower number. Since my monthly check is not adjusted for inflation, it becomes less important every year. Many people built their whole life around the company and have all their assets tied to the company. I will get by no matter what they do.
Pump it up. LTRO me to prosperity.
Spanish flash GDP today.
It will be ugly.
Substitute Photos of horrific train-wrecks and you capture the essence of those charts...eliminates the need for ANY text on the matter...now, Draghi and Ben become the EMTs on the scene...sotra like the volunteer fireman that is a pyro and then joins the crew to heroically put out the blaze...
Not even touching this. 2 man zero AUM, Zero trackrecord company from Halifax Canada. Oh ya, that's where the big money plays baby.
They can be right, but with no money they are wrong.