This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.

Presenting: The Housing Bubble 2.0

Tyler Durden's picture




 

It was just seven short years ago that the prices at the epicenter of the housing bubble, Los Angeles, CA rose by 50% every six months as the nation experienced its first parabolic move higher in home prices courtesy of Alan Greenspan's disastrous policies: a time when everyone knew intuitively the housing market was in an epic bubble, yet which nobody wanted to pop because there was just too much fun to be had chasing the bouncing ball, not to mention money. Well, courtesy of the real-time real estate pricing trackers at Altos Research, we now know that the very worst of the housing bubble is not only back, but it is at levels not seen since the days when a house in the Inland Empire was only a faint glimmer of the prototype for BitCoin.

Exhibit A:

The red line is the 7 day rolling average of median LA house prices per Altos (more data here). It is up 50% since the beginning of the year. One can only stand back and stare.

Still not convinced? After all those West Coast folks are known for being a little trigger happy when it comes to "flipping that house." Which is why, from the heartland of the East Coast, we present...

Exhibit B:

 

The Gretsch building, an old guitar factory turned condo building in Williamsburg, just had a crazy week: Crain’s reports that three units sold in all-cash transactions, each one setting new highs on a per-square-foot basis. The units in questions were two adjacent two-bedrooms on the ninth floor, selling for $1.4 million and $1.5 million, and a larger two-bedroom on the 10th floor selling at $2.5 million — all at an average of $1,150 per square foot. “It needs to be cash, it needs to be over ask, and (the listing) will never see the light of day,” the broker had told all the buyers. According to Crain’s, Williamsburg condos are currently averaging $794 per square foot, with high-end condos like Northside Piers bringing in closer to $1,050 per foot. The broker who handled the Gretsch sales at 60 Broadway can’t seem to believe it herself: “It’s unbelievable what’s going on out there,” she told Crain’s. Our question is, can the high sales we’ve been seeing lately be a bubble based on low mortgage rates if the buyers are paying record-setting prices with all cash? 3 Condos Sold in Williamsburg at Record Prices [Crain's]

Great job Bernanke & Co. You have succeeded at rolling up the housing, credit, bond, tech and equity bubbles all into one.

Watching the glorious unwind of all this unprecedented academic-created stupidity will be worth the hyperinflated price of admission alone.

h/t @Gloeschi

 

- advertisements -

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Mon, 04/29/2013 - 22:31 | 3512382 tmosley
tmosley's picture

The shit circles the drain faster and faster just before it disappears.

Mon, 04/29/2013 - 22:37 | 3512422 WayBehind
WayBehind's picture

It will go up and up and up and up ... yeah right

Mon, 04/29/2013 - 22:44 | 3512432 Cult_of_Reason
Cult_of_Reason's picture

BERNANKE: "Well, I don't buy your premise... We've never had a decline in house prices..."

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9QpD64GUoXw

Mon, 04/29/2013 - 22:48 | 3512460 flacon
flacon's picture

All "properties" (interesting word) belong to the corporation known as the UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, a for-profit corporation operating out of Washington DC. 

Mon, 04/29/2013 - 22:56 | 3512481 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

We're doing it again. 

AGAIN.

I heard a commercial on the radio just today about "flipping" properties for 60, 80, even 100K over purchase price.  Buy our system!  We know how to make you money!

Holy shit.  AGAIN??

Mon, 04/29/2013 - 23:01 | 3512498 quintago
quintago's picture

I just talked to a guy today that is putting an offer in for $2.5M for a property that was last sold in 2010 for $967K. Nothing has changed with the property save maybe landscaping.

Mon, 04/29/2013 - 23:12 | 3512534 markmotive
markmotive's picture

Months of housing supply is back to 2005 levels.

http://www.planbeconomics.com/2013/04/chart-months-of-housing-supply-bac...

Tue, 04/30/2013 - 04:41 | 3513053 Troll Magnet
Troll Magnet's picture

Well, here's the dilemma many Los Angelenos face. In my neighborhood, a 2bd/2ba apartment rents anywhere from $2,700-5,500. So if you're looking at these prices, you're more than likely to think, "Maybe I should just buy..."

Tue, 04/30/2013 - 06:26 | 3513105 malikai
malikai's picture

I wonder just how much of this new housing "bubble" is domestic private purchases vs. buy2rent and foreigners jumping from fires at home to fires afar.

Tue, 04/30/2013 - 08:06 | 3513198 new game
new game's picture

great opportunity to exit the matrix. that is being debt free by selling any mortgaged properties.

this is your second chance. double top dude!

 

Tue, 04/30/2013 - 09:26 | 3513200 new game
new game's picture

ECHO BUBBLE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! BITCHEEZ!

Tue, 04/30/2013 - 08:55 | 3513311 smlbizman
smlbizman's picture

how in the fuck did robert(norm macdonald) shiller become the knower of all things real estate....along with that fucking clown face jeremy siegel form wort an...i worked with a guy from the wort...thought he was it and so much more....the sweater over the shoulders...what a dick.....after that clown siegel i would tell people i went to a community college instead of the wort....

Tue, 04/30/2013 - 09:33 | 3513434 new game
new game's picture

somebody had to rise to the role of real estate know it all...

certainly not NAR manipulators/lobbyist bullshit of realtor fakedom.

good time to buy, everyday, all day, 24/7 365 forever...

rates never been lower.

prices never been better.

bend over while i get paid 3 percent for being dumb, lazy and in your best interest.

fuck realtors and the fucking horse the think they are riding on...

Tue, 04/30/2013 - 11:24 | 3513961 Turin Turambar
Turin Turambar's picture

Good question malikai.  I've sold multiple rental income properties to groups out of Europe over the last 2 years.  My guess is that they are trying to convert fiat to hard assets and get out of Europe while the getting is good.  Couple that with the shadow inventory that is being held off the market in order to artificially reduce supply, and you have a recipe for increasing prices.  This is especially noticeable in Florida where I live.

 

I've been sitting on the sidelines for the better part of the last 18 months and have certainly missed making some money in this run-up, but I prefer to play it safe and pick up properties on the cheap after this new bubble implodes.  How much longer can this go on?  I'm surprised it has made it this long. 

Tue, 04/30/2013 - 08:07 | 3513206 I am a Man I am...
I am a Man I am Forty's picture

This is the problem, all the slack is out of the market, it is in Raleigh, NC anyway.  Decent house in decent location are going for more than asking with several offers on the table in a day.

Mon, 04/29/2013 - 23:16 | 3512545 HulkHogan
HulkHogan's picture

Good for him. He can sell it in 2019 for $10 million.

 

Mon, 04/29/2013 - 23:56 | 3512671 Skateboarder
Skateboarder's picture

In 2019, jillions are the new millions, and squillions are the new trillions. As we go up, up, and awayyy.

Tue, 04/30/2013 - 01:05 | 3512826 Mugatu
Mugatu's picture

While this is no doubt another Fed induced bubble/nightmare, has anyone asked themselves if part of this behavior is a reflection that people do not find their little pieces of paper to be a good store of their savings anymore?  At some point, even the average Schmo realizes that the paper he owns is defaced more and more each month with dilution.

Tue, 04/30/2013 - 01:24 | 3512864 Poetic injustice
Poetic injustice's picture

Average schmoe now works 3 part time jobs for minimal wage and does not even look at properties.

Tue, 04/30/2013 - 03:42 | 3513020 Harbanger
Harbanger's picture

True.  High unemployment is why they won't be able to re-inflate the housing bubble. There will be some shifting of properties by existing owners but few new buyers.

Tue, 04/30/2013 - 04:45 | 3513056 Troll Magnet
Troll Magnet's picture

According to every realtor I know here in LA, there is a severe shortage of inventory and a shitload of potential buyers from all over the world.

Tue, 04/30/2013 - 07:51 | 3513185 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

 

 

That's just the banks withholding foreclosures from the market to prop up prices and turn some of their bright-red toxic assets green.  Offloading $40B/month to Ben's disposal doesn't hurt either.  And the MSM gets a gift-wrapped story of how housing and financials are booming.  The illusion of the wealth effect seems to keep working...

I give this whole thing 18 months, max, before the masses are once again sifting through the rubble.

Tue, 04/30/2013 - 08:15 | 3513213 new game
new game's picture

exactly-round two of wealth transfer-they want it all.

your job for shit pay, your home(less a few payaments), your fucking soul...

they dont give one flying fuck about you...

Tue, 04/30/2013 - 09:29 | 3513436 Kayman
Kayman's picture

Can't wait for Round 2, when they re-incarnate Hank Paulson. "We gots ta have $7 trillion for my friends or we plug the kid !"

Tue, 04/30/2013 - 09:38 | 3513470 new game
new game's picture

round three>go back to first comment with 100 percent up votes.

then cycle complete as the crap is out of sight...

then call roto ben the shit remover and team treasuries to buy it back and keep the cycle going for next pipe cleanout.

Tue, 04/30/2013 - 04:48 | 3513057 Troll Magnet
Troll Magnet's picture

As a homeowner, it's good to see the prices moving up even if it's a bubble since my family and I've been thinking about selling and then renting until we can move the fuck out of this goddamned state of CaliWHOREnia.

Tue, 04/30/2013 - 05:29 | 3513070 OldPhart
OldPhart's picture

As a fellow CaliWhornian, I have to agree.  Good luck on the move and resist the urge to Californicate the area you move into.  Adapt to the local customs.

Me. I'm sorta stuck in this shithole state with a nearly paid off house, family, actual job, and rapidly approaching senility with accompanying old age.  I figure, if I live, that in another ten years I'll be so out of it that I couldn't care less about being made into Soylent Green...might even look forward to it.

Tue, 04/30/2013 - 08:53 | 3513312 donsluck
donsluck's picture

You two may hate California, until you move away for a year. You'll be back. They don't call it the golden state for nuttin.

Tue, 04/30/2013 - 09:21 | 3513406 caShOnlY
caShOnlY's picture

They don't call it the golden state for nuttin.

15 million illegals can't be wrong!!

Tue, 04/30/2013 - 13:46 | 3514622 OldPhart
OldPhart's picture

Don't hate the State or the weather.

Have a blood-lust hatred for the whorehouse in Sacramento and the millions of parasites that flock to the sanctuary state.

These fucktoids are even talking about making illegals sit on juries.

Tue, 04/30/2013 - 22:39 | 3516442 Freddie
Freddie's picture

They do not call Callie-Porn-ne-ah the golden shower state for nuttin.

Tue, 04/30/2013 - 08:26 | 3513248 azzhatter
azzhatter's picture

this is the top 20% buyers. The bottom 80% is buying tents at Cabelas

Tue, 04/30/2013 - 07:47 | 3513179 orez65
orez65's picture

The average "wealthy schmoe" in the US has a lot of cash for example the "baby boomers".

If it is cash that is driving the recent real estate bubble then it is an exchange of dollars for hard assets.

The next step will be exchanging dollars for ANY hard asset.

I've experienced this behavior, many years ago, in Latin America.

Tue, 04/30/2013 - 07:54 | 3513188 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

 

 

That's just the demand side.  On the supply side, you've got the backlog of foreclosures that the banks just "haven't gotten to yet" as they purposely stall to keep the real price from prevailing.

Funny that for most goods, withholding supply to drive up prices would be considered bad as well as an anti-trust violation.

Mon, 04/29/2013 - 23:08 | 3512512 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

it could be worse...it could be Hong Kong. i mean "that be some serious pooty boyz and girlz." to paraphrase the movie Apocalypse Now "one day this bubble is gonna end." enjoy it Cali...you deserve it. the rest of this country sucks ass. this is what the American dream is all about...if you've been able to cash out and move up...and cash out and move up...and cash out and move up...just keep it going. i stare at a hundred acres every day and think "is there anyone out there anymore?" hellllooooo. hellllllooo....http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=umyl-wWRkJ4

Tue, 04/30/2013 - 00:44 | 3512786 jonjon831983
jonjon831983's picture

Just dust off n plug in the ol tape deck.  It don't get old.

Tue, 04/30/2013 - 11:27 | 3513984 Turin Turambar
Turin Turambar's picture

8-track right?

Tue, 04/30/2013 - 01:10 | 3512838 bigyimmy007
bigyimmy007's picture

People just never learn from history.

They just move on, forget, and hope it never happens again.

Tue, 04/30/2013 - 01:31 | 3512883 Parrotile
Parrotile's picture

If they've forgotten what for many was the most publicised and Politially kicked "Market Crash for Mr and Mrs Average" in ery recent years, then there's something very wrong with the US Attention Span, let alone Collective Memory!.

At least in Australia they haven't had a severe bust - yet (but with the severe (12 billion AU$) shortfall in Mining Taxation revenue, necessitating "thinking the unthinkable" by our spineless Politicos of all flavours, even lind Freddie can see the train's a comin'!)

Tue, 04/30/2013 - 02:31 | 3512968 Doña K
Doña K's picture

It's all foreign money, as the Cyprus incident, the tightening of the tax havens. Money has to go somewhere and it goes in RE and physical PM's.

Tue, 04/30/2013 - 13:13 | 3514512 andyupnorth
andyupnorth's picture

A wise man once said:

"Until proven otherwise, we're all retards"

Francois Perusse

Tue, 04/30/2013 - 08:44 | 3513283 TeMpTeK
TeMpTeK's picture

Yes we can....Harlem shake in .......3........2.........1.....

Mon, 04/29/2013 - 23:11 | 3512525 Abitdodgie
Abitdodgie's picture

Unless you have a Land Pattent , then its not Federal.

Mon, 04/29/2013 - 23:14 | 3512549 Abitdodgie
Abitdodgie's picture

 

Here is the current list of the stars who are bugging out:

 

adam brody

america ferrera

amy smart

anna nicole smith(yes she’s gone already but the estate)

ARNOLD SCHWARNEGGER

ashlee simpson

ASTON KUTCHER

avril lavigne

BARRY MANILOW

bert lahr

beth grant

CANDY SPELLING

CHARLIE SHEEN

charlize theron

cher

dennis quaid

dick clark(estate)

the rock dwayne jonson

ELLEN DE GENERATE

elvis presley(estate)

frankie muniz

HARRISON FORD

heath ledger(estate)

heidi klum

hilary duff

hillary swank

howie mandel

JENNIFER ANDERSON

JENNIFER LOVE HEWITT

JIM CAREY

kd lang

kara dioguardi

kate walsh

katherine heigl

KATY PERRY

kelsey grammer

lauren conrad

LEONARDO DI CAPRIO

MARK WAHLBERG

mathew perry

MEG RYAN

megan mullully

MEL GIBSON

NEIL PATRICK HARRIS

nick lachey

P.DIDDY

penelope cruz

pierce brosnan

pink

reese witherspoon

RHIANNA

robin williams

sally feilds

SCARLETT JOHANSSON

SHARON STONE

SYVESTER STALLONE

tori spelling

USHER

wayne brady

zsa zsa gabor(estate)

 

This is just a partial list, still not including movie directors, producers, and the millions of “movie industry” people in LA.

What do they know?

Where are they going?

I have never seen a massive exodus like this….

I’m a bit uneasy about this situation.

 So if they are all leaving , then will this trigger the housing collaps

Mon, 04/29/2013 - 23:27 | 3512581 Fish Gone Bad
Fish Gone Bad's picture

BARRY MANILOW shops at Vons in Palm Desert.

Mon, 04/29/2013 - 23:27 | 3512590 LetThemEatRand
LetThemEatRand's picture

Oh, Mandy.

Mon, 04/29/2013 - 23:49 | 3512643 Raymond K Hessel
Raymond K Hessel's picture

From where to where?  

Tue, 04/30/2013 - 00:08 | 3512701 LetThemEatRand
LetThemEatRand's picture

From the Copa to the Cabana, of course.

Tue, 04/30/2013 - 09:29 | 3513413 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

No.  They are getting AWAY FROM TAXES.  Their home values have recovered so it's a good time to cash out and head to a lower tax state.

When even uber-liberal Bill Maher is complaining about the tax rates in the utopian liberal parradise he himself supported and helped bring into being, you know it's bad.

Personally, I'd love to see California tell Bill Maher he's not allowed to leave.  Sit his ass in a chair and just keep making him PAY AND PAY AND PAY.  We'll make a conservative out of that little bitch in no time!

Tue, 04/30/2013 - 09:27 | 3513425 smlbizman
smlbizman's picture

but but ...robert downey junior is ringing the opening bell......so you know everything is good

Mon, 04/29/2013 - 23:51 | 3512663 McMolotov
McMolotov's picture

My high school principal used to raid Barry Manilow's wardrobe.

Tue, 04/30/2013 - 00:07 | 3512705 LetThemEatRand
LetThemEatRand's picture

I've never understood why there is no famous porn star (as far as I know) named Harry Manilow.  Seemed like an obvious one.

Tue, 04/30/2013 - 00:23 | 3512736 prains
prains's picture

i think you meant

Barily Amantoblow

Tue, 04/30/2013 - 01:34 | 3512895 A Nanny Moose
A Nanny Moose's picture

Don't mess with the bull young man. You'll get the horns.

\m/

Mon, 04/29/2013 - 23:30 | 3512593 HulkHogan
HulkHogan's picture

They're taking their skills to South Beach, of course.

Mon, 04/29/2013 - 23:36 | 3512616 Mr. Saxby
Mr. Saxby's picture

Bugging out of where? I'm having a hard time picturing Charlie Sheen going prepper and growing his own cocaine.

Mon, 04/29/2013 - 23:56 | 3512670 BLOTTO
BLOTTO's picture

Maybe its something else those st*rs are worried about?

.

As the fans look up to them and worship... you know they are called stars for a reason...

Tue, 04/30/2013 - 05:43 | 3513076 Lets_Eat_Ben
Lets_Eat_Ben's picture

I call them irrelevant.

Tue, 04/30/2013 - 00:27 | 3512746 gwar5
gwar5's picture

AD,  that's good. Where'd the list come from, link please? Thanks.

 

I don't doubt it one bit, I would like see what the rest on the list consider "bugging out".  Plus, Scarlett is already with me. We're looking for Charlize.

 

 

Tue, 04/30/2013 - 00:48 | 3512800 A Nanny Moose
A Nanny Moose's picture

They know nothing more than the rest of us. They just have the money to enable their put option on the Untied States.

Tue, 04/30/2013 - 04:09 | 3513032 Supernova Born
Supernova Born's picture

One of those "smart" folks doesn't even know someone at Moonshadow's dropped a dime on him.

Tue, 04/30/2013 - 09:15 | 3513384 dontgoforit
dontgoforit's picture

Would you stay and pay those taxes if you didn't have to?

Tue, 04/30/2013 - 01:42 | 3512903 Freddie
Freddie's picture

Most of em can go to ****ing hell as they are mostly libtards who voted for this sh*t in Calliefornia and for Obama.  F them.

Tue, 04/30/2013 - 01:59 | 3512934 Lord Drek
Lord Drek's picture

GTFO. You copied and pasted this list from some failed fear porn prediction on beforeitsnews.com. This list was floating around to "prove" that LA would experience a nuclear holocaust on April 28, 2013.

This is not a fear porn site. Intellectual dishonesty can't be tolerated here.

Tue, 04/30/2013 - 02:20 | 3512959 John_Coltrane
John_Coltrane's picture

I think was can all agree that we have nothing to fear from porn but fear itself!  (.gov is another animal though)

Mon, 04/29/2013 - 23:15 | 3512552 Cult_of_Reason
Cult_of_Reason's picture

"The regional Federal Reserve banks are not government agencies. ...but are independent, privately owned and locally controlled corporations." — Lewis vs. United States, 680 F. 2d 1239 9th Circuit 1982

"A great industrial nation is controlled by it's system of credit. Our system of credit is concentrated in the hands of a few men. We have come to be one of the worst ruled, one of the most completely controlled and dominated governments in the world--no longer a government of free opinion, no longer a government by conviction and vote of the majority, but a government by the opinion and duress of small groups of dominant men." — President Woodrow Wilson

"We have, in this country, one of the most corrupt institutions the world has ever known. I refer to the Federal Reserve Board. This evil institution has impoverished the people of the United States and has practically bankrupted our government. It has done this through the corrupt practices of the moneyed vultures who control it". — Congressman Louis T. McFadden in 1932 (Rep. Pa)

Tue, 04/30/2013 - 07:57 | 3513196 orez65
orez65's picture

Historical trivia:

Andrew Jackson called bankers "thieves",circa 1833, when he closed the then Federal Reserve, the "Second Bank of the US"

He has been insulted by today's Federal Reserve by imprinting his image on the $20 FEDERAL RESERVE NOTE.

Tue, 04/30/2013 - 08:31 | 3513260 rustymason
rustymason's picture

These comments are highly anti-semitic.

Tue, 04/30/2013 - 08:58 | 3513330 smlbizman
smlbizman's picture

flacon, i dont think many people know their house is collateral to the fed, if or when the day comes....so we live in re-hypothicateville, where  not all is as it appears to be......

Tue, 04/30/2013 - 06:08 | 3513097 babylon15
babylon15's picture

Even when he said this, he was factually incorrect.  House prices declined over 50% from 1895 to 1920.

http://www.multpl.com/case-shiller-home-price-index-inflation-adjusted/

Mon, 04/29/2013 - 22:40 | 3512435 true brain
true brain's picture

it's different time. I mean it. These prices will be ten times higher in five years when a truck load of dollar is needed for one ounce of gold. these people are smart actually.

Mon, 04/29/2013 - 22:58 | 3512479 LetThemEatRand
LetThemEatRand's picture

You assume wage inflation will keep up.  So far, it has not.  A currency crisis does not necessarily entail wage inflation.  If not, people have to sell assets to buy what they need.  And if there is a currency crises, won't interest rates go up?  I don't begin to know the answer, but there are two sides to this argument.

Mon, 04/29/2013 - 23:13 | 3512536 Fish Gone Bad
Fish Gone Bad's picture

When there is a currency crisis, then money is no longer a storehouse of value (if it ever truly was).  So then only things are worth things.  Buying a house with a loan just before a currency crisis is probably a good idea because the money will just devalue and one can pay off their mortgage for pennies on the dollar.  Paying cash for a property is either an idiot (doubtful), some kind of hot (drug) money that HAS to go somewhere, or my thought, some government do-gooder trying to make things look better than they are and are willing to help out Obama by spending too much for property.

Mon, 04/29/2013 - 23:20 | 3512558 LetThemEatRand
LetThemEatRand's picture

What if the plan is to revalue dollars based on a new standard before hyper-inflation kicks in.   In the short-term, a currency crisis could cause sudden deflation before it leads to inflation (so long as the dollars being printed aren't in circulation, this could occur).  In that case, your home loan could be revalued (by government mandate) to the new currency.  The debtor then has to repay in the new currency, which is in short supply.  He can't sell the house for the same reason.  And interest rates are now much higher so the equivalent amount of new currency buys far less house on credit.

I agree with you that your explanation is a plausible possible outcome, but it seems like it would benefit the little guy with a mortgage, car loan, student loan, etc., and they NEVER do things that benefit the little guy.

Mon, 04/29/2013 - 23:57 | 3512682 Skateboarder
Skateboarder's picture

No worries mate, we're all going to camp. :)

Tue, 04/30/2013 - 00:02 | 3512695 LetThemEatRand
LetThemEatRand's picture

Point, set, match.  

Tue, 04/30/2013 - 07:22 | 3513150 spankfish
spankfish's picture

Camp of the Saints?

Tue, 04/30/2013 - 01:59 | 3512930 goldsansstandard
goldsansstandard's picture

I wonderhow many cash buyers actually borrow the money off the grid, and get a mortgage shortly after closing.

Tue, 04/30/2013 - 08:57 | 3513319 Dr. No
Dr. No's picture

It does seem silly to pay cash when we are at record low interest rates.

Mon, 04/29/2013 - 23:24 | 3512578 HulkHogan
HulkHogan's picture

Good point. Without wage inflation then these prices can't keep moving higher. And I'd guess that if interest rates rise continously and in a steeding fashion, it may actually be good for housing. Stocks would drop in value and people would be affraid to buy bonds with rising rates, so they may invest in housing and housing repairs. And of course we all know that people only buy when the price rises, so if rates keep moving up, the public may jump in to lock in at lower rate today then in the future. But hell, I don't know either. Just guessing.

Tue, 04/30/2013 - 01:39 | 3512902 A Nanny Moose
A Nanny Moose's picture

You both make great points however...

What if all that exported inflation suddenly comes home? Trillions of $ abroad, suddenly come home to buy land...

Possible? Sustainable? Where does this thesis break down?

Tue, 04/30/2013 - 00:09 | 3512703 Poor Grogman
Poor Grogman's picture

Wage earners don't buy with cash

This sounds like parking excess cash in something tangible, this type of thing has happened before.

Could this be another variation of cash rushing for safety?

Banks or Tangibles that is the question?

Tue, 04/30/2013 - 05:36 | 3513071 OldPhart
OldPhart's picture

After six years of frozen wages, and hours reduced to 35 per week...my employees finally got a $0.50 per hour increase.

They were so grateful I wanted to puke.

Mon, 04/29/2013 - 22:42 | 3512443 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

The time has come for me to sell my very small piece of commercial property in a southern town.  I got an offer!  But, the rent is one of very few sources of passive income for me, if they want it, the prospective buyer is going to have to pay.  I counter-offered at almost 50% above his...  You want the rental income?  Pay me for it.  Which I hope he does!  I have no confidence in the longer term re the property, any property really.

Mon, 04/29/2013 - 22:49 | 3512466 Antifaschistische
Antifaschistische's picture

Yes, I'm afraid you must take advantage of the Real Estate Seminar Evangelists who have hit the circuit in waves...convincing the sheeple that their key to wealth and happiness is to buy rental property.   This opportunity to fleece these sheep won't last forever....but when does it end?  who knows.  Is there still headroom?  perhaps.

disclaimer:  I am no real estate guru, but when I hear the constant advertisements for these stupid seminars I know it means the top is somewhere in the neighborhood.

Mon, 04/29/2013 - 23:10 | 3512517 A Lunatic
A Lunatic's picture

The gurus made their fortunes and now want out so they're making a second fortune dumping their used up investment properties on the dumbshits who are about ten years too late to the party. Not much different that Amway really.........

Tue, 04/30/2013 - 02:14 | 3512935 Ham-bone
Ham-bone's picture

property as an investment for individuals is all about rental income - somebody else paying the mortgage and dependent on your down payment % maybe some rental income.  The appreciation is only the icing on the cake.  Once people are buying only based on appreciation, the game is nearly over. 

Just think - Real incomes not rising, rates pretty much low as they can go, no down or 3% FHA loans standard, interest tax deductible, lotsa unemployed not buying anytime soon, lotsa recent grads and non-grads carrying lotsa student debt and not buying anytime soon...prices too high for investors to buy and rent now, doesn't pencil at these levels...all the cards are played and now look for the lip o this wave to start curling...luckily all those flip buyers and investors will know just when to get out this time...

Tue, 04/30/2013 - 10:05 | 3513582 Diogenes
Diogenes's picture

That's why I was buying in 2009 and 2010, and getting shit from all the Einsteins on this board who KNEW real estate was worthless and prices would never rise again.

Now getting set to list them for sale and cash out. The summer selling season is coming.

Mon, 04/29/2013 - 23:28 | 3512572 DormRoom
DormRoom's picture

Prices for assets continue their unsustainable reflation, but average real household wages have been stagnant.  Only the top 11% can afford these bubble prices.  The other 89% rely on debt to maintain purchasing power.  If most follks couldn't afford to buy stuff in 2007 without being overleveraged, how can they afford to now, given that household wages have been stagnant, and they've just begun to repair their balance sheet.  God damn it, the market needs to clear all these mispricings, so price discovery can occur for sustainable enterprises, unlike these faux prices from bubble capitalism.

Tue, 04/30/2013 - 05:38 | 3513074 Aeternus
Aeternus's picture

"Great job Bernanke & Co. You have succeeded at rolling up the housing, credit, bond, tech and equity bubbles all into one.

Watching the glorious unwind of all this unprecedented academic-created stupidity will be worth the hyperinflated price of admission alone"

 

Pure literary genius!

 

Now I need some popcorn, it's going to be fun watching this shit crash, AGAIN.

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fyklt01lN_I

Tue, 04/30/2013 - 08:36 | 3513266 rogeliokh
rogeliokh's picture

Put up the chart Medium Household income and compare to those house prices,
Who is buying them? Loans are still near to impossible to get..
Anyways in my Area prices are not rising at all. Maybe it's just in LA.

Tue, 04/30/2013 - 09:45 | 3513507 Kayman
Kayman's picture

Lumber peaked at $410 mid-March on the CME, closed at $352 yesterday. If things really are booming, prices should be rising in springtime. Another headfake, with local anomalies, I think.

Mon, 04/29/2013 - 22:34 | 3512386 otto skorzeny
otto skorzeny's picture

the 2008 financial crisis never really ended. that fucking bernanke will pull a greenspan and get out of the fed seat before the shit goes horribly wrong.

Mon, 04/29/2013 - 22:32 | 3512390 zorba THE GREEK
zorba THE GREEK's picture

This is all going to end very badly. Only PMs and cash will survive, and eventually

only PMs.

Tue, 04/30/2013 - 09:35 | 3513453 tarsubil
tarsubil's picture

If cash is going to survive, why are these people paying millions in cash for fucking condos?

Tue, 04/30/2013 - 15:52 | 3515147 kito
kito's picture

because nobody wants to store their cash inside banks and nobody wants to store millions at home...............

Mon, 04/29/2013 - 22:33 | 3512391 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

And we have liftoff, liftoff of the USA Spaceship Ponzi.

Mon, 04/29/2013 - 22:37 | 3512392 khakuda
khakuda's picture

Yup.  There is no doubt this is now the Mother of all bubbles and it ain't over yet.   Ben is "The Mother."

I just want to see who gets framed for it.  I think Janet Yellen because she is going to double down again.  Just like Erin Callan at Lehman, gets the job in time for the collapse.

Something is wrong when 48 million are on foodstamps, a 1 bedroom in Manhattan is $1 million and requires $2,000 a month in taxes and other maintenance, college is $60,000 a year and a stay in the hospital runs $8,000 a night.

Mon, 04/29/2013 - 23:10 | 3512518 Unprepared
Unprepared's picture

"I just want to see who gets framed for it."

Easy. Reinhart and Rogoff will be blamed for their excel mistake. They might have delayed a QEn+1.

Tue, 04/30/2013 - 02:12 | 3512953 Gon2Marz
Gon2Marz's picture

Who pays 60K/yr for college? Any state school in the nation is substantially less than that.

Mon, 04/29/2013 - 22:32 | 3512397 wisefool
wisefool's picture

Could we doubble tap this one with a mortgage interest deduction and free property taxes? I added the gratis part.

Mon, 04/29/2013 - 22:36 | 3512408 pragmatic hobo
pragmatic hobo's picture

it seems like bernanke and co. believes that bubble era price was in fact the "norm" which must be surpassed.

Mon, 04/29/2013 - 22:36 | 3512411 Freewheelin Franklin
Freewheelin Franklin's picture

You have succeeded at rolling up the housing, credit, and tech bubble and equity bubbles, all into one.

A dollar bubble?

Mon, 04/29/2013 - 22:54 | 3512445 Supernova Born
Supernova Born's picture

Baseless fiat is the Hydra.

The heads (bubbles) will keep sprouting until the Hydra dies.

Tue, 04/30/2013 - 02:14 | 3512952 MythicalFish
MythicalFish's picture

The Hydra is "antifragile", this beast is called "Golem".

 

From Wikipedia: Golems are not intelligent, and if commanded to perform a task, they will perform the instructions literally. In many depictions Golems are inherently perfectly obedient. In its earliest known modern form, the Golem of Che?m became enormous and uncooperative. In one version of this story, the rabbi had to resort to trickery to deactivate it, whereupon it crumbled upon its creator and crushed him.

Tue, 04/30/2013 - 04:00 | 3513025 Supernova Born
Supernova Born's picture

The Golem does seem apropos in many ways, although when it collapses in this case it will take far more than just its creator with it.

Add one...the stream of commerce has been turned to stone by Ben "Medusa" Bernanke and the writhing snakes of uncertainty his endless monetary manipulation has cast over business and the consumer.

Mon, 04/29/2013 - 22:49 | 3512457 forwardho
forwardho's picture

You have succeeded at rolling up the housing, credit, bond, tech and equity bubbles all into one.

Don't forget the wonderful world of student loan CDS.

 

Mon, 04/29/2013 - 23:18 | 3512553 Fish Gone Bad
Fish Gone Bad's picture

I bet you can use your student loans to buy a house!!!!!

Mon, 04/29/2013 - 23:15 | 3512540 Anusocracy
Anusocracy's picture

An ongoing devolution bubble in the US.

Mon, 04/29/2013 - 22:36 | 3512420 maskone909
maskone909's picture

Im in the inland empire. Just went house hunting this weekend. We were floored when we saw what artificial inventories and sky high prices were compared to 6-12 months ago.

We were pretty fuckin pissed and felt the market passed us up. But this is all bullshit and will blow up bigtime not to far in the future

Mon, 04/29/2013 - 23:20 | 3512560 kridkrid
kridkrid's picture

No... Be happy that the market passed you up. Rent and enjoy your freedom/mobility.

Mon, 04/29/2013 - 23:41 | 3512627 glenlloyd
glenlloyd's picture

There's a lot of truth in that. A house seems like a good idea until you get into it and figure out how much time it takes to deal with it and how much it costs if something goes south...like a sewer line etc.

Bought another house a year ago last December....a year from now it'll be for sale and I'm praying the market for it will still be around. Other house has to get sold this year, don't owe anything on either one but I'm getting the itch to be in a rental unit with zero responsibilty....

Tue, 04/30/2013 - 05:47 | 3513078 OldPhart
OldPhart's picture

You're not a cheap enough bastard.

Septic tank goes out...you dig a shithole for an outhouse and let the wife bitch for three years.

Paint and upkeep? Fuck that, let the neighbors do it so your property is a 'fixer upper' in a 'good neighborhood'.

Aboveground pool?  After tadpoles appear (how the hell did they get in the fuckin' pool, we live in a god damned desert!), traumatically drain into neighbors yards and sell for scrap metal.

Grass and landscaping...fuck that...we're going native desert...bare god damned dirt with tumbleweeds and mustards.

Dogs in the yard?  Ah, it's good until the neighbors demand you clean up the dog shit.

Trash pickup...fuck the bill, we're paying property taxes already.

Yard clean up...pull it into the street so the wind blows it somewhere else.

It's amazing how much money you can save when you just quit giving a shit.

Mon, 04/29/2013 - 22:40 | 3512424 jal
jal's picture

Isn't her some wise saying.

A fool and his money are soon parted.

 

Easy come easy go.

Mon, 04/29/2013 - 23:08 | 3512522 ThisIsBob
ThisIsBob's picture

Fool was just lucky to have money to begin with.

Mon, 04/29/2013 - 22:37 | 3512425 jim249
jim249's picture

The sheeple are desperate for a place to park their cash before; 1. It is worthless,or 2. It is confiscated. Take your pick.

Mon, 04/29/2013 - 22:40 | 3512427 duo
duo's picture

At least in real estate, you can lose half or 2/3rds of your money.  In a bank, it can be Corzined or Cyprussed to 0.

Mon, 04/29/2013 - 23:22 | 3512573 kridkrid
kridkrid's picture

If: 1. You own it outright, 2. Have income to pay your property taxes (which will increase non-stop as governments make up the difference in light of decreasing tax receipts).

Mon, 04/29/2013 - 22:41 | 3512428 1C3-N1N3
Mon, 04/29/2013 - 22:51 | 3512464 1C3-N1N3
1C3-N1N3's picture

Those hollow-bodies with the Bigsby are classic Gretsch.

My baby is a 25th anniversary re-issue of the 1962 strat. http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-3AFJX0mLt58/Tt5ai0JvqsI/AAAAAAAABmI/FX-HxU4NpjI/s1600/Squier%2BStrat%2B1985.jpg

Mon, 04/29/2013 - 23:22 | 3512576 infinity8
infinity8's picture

Nice! I'm a classic old m'fer for sure. Couldn't find a good listing for my most favoritest ever gee-tar from back in the '80's that a nice-but-stupid fucktard traded me for driving him to school. "Twas an acoustic, limited edition, I think '64 acoustic Gibson that I was stupid enough to sell in the early 90's. Rock on, mate.

Tue, 04/30/2013 - 00:09 | 3512708 SqueekyFromm
SqueekyFromm's picture

That is a very nice guitar. I recently got one of the Epiphone Black Royale Rivieras which is kind of big and scary. It has 3 pickup thingies, which are called P-90s. But I figured if K T and Keren can handle those big guitars, then I ought to be able to. I hope.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cD7oGKr3lCY

Squeeky Fromm, Girl Reporter

Tue, 04/30/2013 - 01:50 | 3512917 Freddie
Mon, 04/29/2013 - 22:39 | 3512429 Ignatius
Ignatius's picture

The graph is median home prices in LA...

Los Angeles is not where ya wanna be when the SHTF.

Tue, 04/30/2013 - 01:45 | 3512909 A Nanny Moose
A Nanny Moose's picture

Only a nobody walks in LA

Tue, 04/30/2013 - 04:25 | 3513045 vulcanraven
vulcanraven's picture

Wish me luck guys, I fuckin live here :(

 

At least I have the LA riots and Northridge earthquake under my belt

Mon, 04/29/2013 - 22:38 | 3512430 PKF
PKF's picture

Ben is the fatherfucker...don't forget it.  Mother Nature will bring them all down.

Mon, 04/29/2013 - 23:57 | 3512679 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

Maybe more like Oedipus, who killed his father (w/o knowing it) and married his mother (not knowing it). A Greek tragedy. The key events if which were foretold long before it happened.

Does the metaphor sound familiar?

Mon, 04/29/2013 - 22:40 | 3512434 A Lunatic
A Lunatic's picture

There is not enough data in the referenced chart to develop any meaningful conclusion one way or the other.........

Mon, 04/29/2013 - 22:41 | 3512437 Son of Loki
Son of Loki's picture

So when do Taxpayers bail out the Losers and Flippers again?

Tue, 04/30/2013 - 09:47 | 3513502 zerozulu
zerozulu's picture

As long as their heart is pumping blood in their veins.

 

Mon, 04/29/2013 - 22:46 | 3512441 Cheeseus Sonofdog
Cheeseus Sonofdog's picture

There has to be more to this story. Did California recently put some new laws into effect which would cause buyers to jump in, or that artificailly restricted inventory? Does this chart include new construction, like apartments, or some big housing developement underway? Some delayed bulk sales that got finalized? A trend among movie stars to buy a new pad?... Seems to me the market has been hot across the nation for a good year. Why the spike now?

Tue, 04/30/2013 - 00:47 | 3512796 MedicalQuack
MedicalQuack's picture

The Chinese are buying a lot of properties in California and they come in with cash, it's not us normal residents doing this for sure.

Mon, 04/29/2013 - 22:53 | 3512451 khakuda
khakuda's picture

When Ben steps out to speak for the camera, they should have some background music.  I'm thinking, "Oops I did it again" or "I'm forever blowing bubbles"

Keep up the good work ZH. So glad to see you guys increasingly quoted in mainstream media, sell side research and buy side reports. F****** sole voice of sanity.

Mon, 04/29/2013 - 23:37 | 3512619 CrimsonAvenger
CrimsonAvenger's picture

How about the Circle Jerks' "We all gotta duck (when the shit hits the fan)"?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=whJlvn4miHk

Tue, 04/30/2013 - 00:35 | 3512769 Stinko da Munk
Stinko da Munk's picture

I am so NOT clicking on a YouTube link when the subject of the post is a circle jerk.

Tue, 04/30/2013 - 08:22 | 3513238 John Law Lives
John Law Lives's picture

I made the mistake of clicking on a link to an image of a "circle jerk" on a ZH thread a few days ago.  I didn't REALLY expect it to be an actual photo of a circle jerk.  My eyes still burn...

Tue, 04/30/2013 - 02:07 | 3512942 Lord Drek
Lord Drek's picture

Bubbles who?

Mon, 04/29/2013 - 22:47 | 3512453 FreeNewEnergy
FreeNewEnergy's picture

Fuck. I'm still living in an inherited residence that was foreclosed upon three years ago and the other side hasn't gotten off jump street yet. What's this about a real estate bubble? It's all local, you know.

When do we start counting the time to complete collapse in days? That's all I want to know because I would really like to move to a better neighborhood. Being a lone wolf has its advantages.

Mon, 04/29/2013 - 22:57 | 3512475 otto skorzeny
otto skorzeny's picture

it will be like in Dr Zhivago when he returns to his once beautiful mansion to find it filled with fellow Communist "comrades" that he must now share it with.

Mon, 04/29/2013 - 22:54 | 3512472 Antifaschistische
Antifaschistische's picture

ps...that condo building in Williamsburg must be beautiful inside...because it's sucking ugly on the outside.  sort of looks like an old converted factory.

Mon, 04/29/2013 - 23:31 | 3512596 steve from virginia
steve from virginia's picture

 

 

It is an old converted factory.

 

It was vacant for 15-20 years.

Mon, 04/29/2013 - 22:57 | 3512483 monopoly
monopoly's picture

We never learn do we. Here we go again. And we all have been to this movie before and know how it ends. Thank goodness we bought a popcorn machine. 

Mon, 04/29/2013 - 22:57 | 3512484 Target Practice
Target Practice's picture

California; The largest lunatic asylum on earth.

Mon, 04/29/2013 - 23:11 | 3512527 A Lunatic
A Lunatic's picture

I am not affiliated with those lunatics.........

Mon, 04/29/2013 - 23:08 | 3512528 Kastorsky
Kastorsky's picture

California; The largest lunatic asylum on earth.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S0Qobbn6880&feature=player_embedded

fucking A

Mon, 04/29/2013 - 23:47 | 3512645 jomama
jomama's picture

just gonna leave this here.

Mon, 04/29/2013 - 23:00 | 3512485 GrinandBearit
GrinandBearit's picture

I can explain this...

90% of the people in this world are mentally ill.

Mon, 04/29/2013 - 23:02 | 3512491 booboo
booboo's picture

the municipalities thank you buyers from the bottom of their hearts, really, this means higher values and higher taxes. There are more ways then one to skin a prop 13

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!