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What Do Bonds, VIX, 'Shorts', And Volume Know?
With 40 minutes to go, as the world's media focused intently on all-time new highs in the S&P 500 - following a 20 point rip off pre-market lows, seemingly encouraged by the worst miss in Dallas Fed ever - it seems interest in actually participating is lagging significantly. Today's volume pro-rata on the NYSE and in S&P futures is among the lowest non-holiday day in months. There has been no 'rotation' as Treasuries are modestly bid. VIX is not participating in the surge at all. And the 'shorts' have started to outperform on the day (following the squeze earlier).
Treasuries are as bid as stocks...
and VIX (protection) relatively bid as we surge...
Led by the opening short squeeze...but in the last few minutes the shorts are regaining performance...
and Volume is atrocious...
Charts:Bloomberg and Capital Context
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DOW 15K!!
I'm calling all green days for the rest of 2013. #timestamp
Every time ZH calls 'em out for low volume, the traders start pumping tickets in the final hour to reassure us all is well.
No surprise the market is up. With high inflation and fed pumping trillions into these markets the S&P will hit 2000 very soon .... and loaf of bread (if you can find any) will be at least $20 too.
Look at the calendar boys. It's just end of month behaviour. Ramp until May 2, then..... who knows.
Bob Janjuah (Feb 2013) quoted and highlighted on ZH:
"A weekly close at a new all-time high would I think lead to the final parabolic spike up which creates the kind of positioning extreme and leverage extreme needed to create the conditions for a 25% to 50% collapse in equities over the rest of 2013 and 2014, driven by real economy reality hitting home..."
Sounds good to me.
POMO tomorrow: $4.25 - $5.25 billion
Pomo next month: same as last month, if not more
Bob Janjuah is for some reason still relying on some kind of fundamental or technical analysis. That is a fucking stupid thing to base this market on.
Last time Tyler had these 'divergence charts' HSI, DAX and oil all subsequently rallied 7% to make SPX feel less lonely in the rarefied bubble air.
We do need a blow-off top. ECB 50bps cut? Pretty please?
dow 30K and oil 250!!!!.................................
Looks like the alogs want 1600 before teh spring sell off starts... since Wall St is the only performance that matters - not jobs, gdp, sales, rev, earnings, etc... just the SPx and DOW
Agreed.1600 is my target for going short as well.
I sure hope they know JPM's vault is empty plus one extra delivery notice.
the vault was emptied so that jamie can handcuff paul k, ben, and timmy and have his way with them! kind of like a new play room
Bring out the gimp...
Interesting that each volume low like that has been preciptated by a huge surge (and fall in price).
Tomorrow is EOM window dressing. I am not shorting below ES 1600 despite what bonds, vix, shorts and volume. Comrade Bernanskavitch has put the chill in my short book.
The END is high....oops, I meant "NIGH"..!! (see how hard it is not to get caught up in this..?)
They know it's the end of the month window dressing. Everyone looks the other way when the market goes higher. As soon as it goes down we will hear the cries of 'manipulation', 'short sellers', 'where is the SEC?' and 'where is the uptick rule?'
to maintain the current trendline from nov, S&P will close at 2050 on dec 31. or, when we drop below it, we'll fall at least 10%. take your pick. the line is currently at 1583.
Hopium clouds the judgment and dulls the senses. Its a helluva drug.
Snort some bernankocaine and everything will seem right again.
Smells like a short squeeeeeeeeeeze, but wouldn't the rip-your-face-off woodie be larger than 20 points in that case?
Shouldn't that be 'volume' Tyler?
Well, we all know war is on the table. When is up to the warpigs.
Andale! Bitchezzzz.
AMZN below $250. That is a good sign, and a good start.
Speaking of nosebleeds. Apple does the monster dividend and buyback...hmmmm.
NatGas and WTi amazingly bullish today for such a shitty Dallas Fed number.
Really no logic anymore.
The usual suspects are behind WTI.
http://blogs.marketwatch.com/election/2013/04/23/senate-democrats-urge-court-to-back-rule-that-would-combat-high-gas-prices/
Because Iran will get bombed after the elections. 'Window of opportunity' closes early July. WTI 110 calls are a joke.
And natgas is just cheap, let it have its spell in the sun nobody cares - its like apple in the 90s.
COMEX inventory:
4/26: 8,049,242
4:25: 8,143,247
Down another 1.2% in one day.
Did anyone also notice exactly when this posting was made, they immediately ramped the DOW back above 100, not to look back...never doubt that this site is monitored very very closely!!!!
All WS algos have had a high-speed lock to ZH since 2008.
Off topic...but
http://www.newsroomamerica.com/story/361044/sec_charges_city_of_victorville_and_others_with_defrauding_municipal_bond_investors.html
I learned the hard way. What's not to understand. With the Fed and soon the BOJ printing about $160 billion per month and yields getting smashed lower on everything, the money will go into stocks. Thats what's working now, just don't be long when the music stops. With greed being a stronger motivator than fear, this can go on for a while longer. Any long exposure I have is strictly through options. If the bottom falls out one day, I know what my max loss is. Stop losses won't save you.
Not that I am surprised, but the equity markets are discounting a phenomenon that even the Almighty Fed cannot control - and that is the onset of a very cold PDO cycle which is going to play havoc with grain futures, and eventually with food prices.
When volume approaches zero prices go to infinity and beyond.
No silly. That's Buzz Lightyear. Stawks go to hell in a handbasket.
When TSHTF the shorts will not be able to cash out of their positions. Markets will be halted, and clowns in the media will ask how can we allow these anti Americans to profit on our failure. All shorts will be deemed worthless and the holders of these vehicles will be put on trial for treason. When the market was halted after 9/11/01, DTC was open, and money moved behind the scenes.
My VIX model went into buy mode for EOD 4/29. Consistent with a top of sorts, and the low equity volumes probably confirm it.
My VIX model is my wife and she says to "Get back in there and sell sell sell." :)
Heh! Quite good. The VIXen fix!
She certainly has me under her spell. :)
What they know is "Sell in may and go away"
Agreed, a better entry for everyone in the know.
Once this thing turns, all that leveraged credit and money is going to be shorting. It will never pull out. The market leaders have all been slain. The activity isn't there. It is just a matter of some technical thing or another switching gears to the path of least resistance. Maybe today's double top was it. I don't know. But this is going to be a nightmare on the way down if the Fed/Treasury is not really in there.
Volume is bearish and suggests that a secondary reaction is in the cards a explained here:
http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2013/04/dow-theory-update-for-april-2...