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Case-Shiller Composite Rises 0.3% In February, Back To September 2010 Levels

Tyler Durden's picture




 

If there is one admirable thing about the Case Shiller Home Price Index report (which sadly shows data for February so a nearly three month delay) is that even according to its authors, it is the Non-Seasonally Adjusted number that is representative of what is going on in housing. And, as the chart below shows, very little is going on as the broader price level continues to undulate in a very tight range with little real moves to the up or downside.

Posting a level of 146.57 for the broad Composite 20 index, there was a 0.3% increase sequentially, and a flatline in prices in the past 6 months, as the index has not budged from its level since September. Of course, that does not mean there are not bubble pockets in the US. As noted yesterday, Los Angeles is quite frothy, posting a 1% increase in February (a number which will since surge if Altos' data is correct), second only to Phoenix (at 1.1%). Alternatively, eight MSA saw a decline in February, with weaker markets in Denver, DC, Chicago, Detroit, Minneapolis, Charlotte, Cleveland and Seattle. But at least the old stronghold "bubble" locations: California, Nevada and Florida are back to doing what they do best. On a year over year basis, the Composite 20% jumped by 9.3% due to a very weak market in early 2012, which was the main reason for the Fed to eventually activate QEternity.

From the report:

“Home prices continue to show solid increases across all 20 cities,” says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “The 10- and 20-City Composites recorded their highest annual growth rates since May 2006; seasonally adjusted monthly data show all 20 cities saw higher prices for two months in a row – the last time that happened was in early 2005.

 

“Phoenix, San Francisco, Las Vegas and Atlanta were the four cities with the highest year-over-year price increases. Atlanta recovered from a wave of foreclosures in 2012 while the other three were among the hardest hit in the housing collapse. At the other end of the rankings, three older cities – New York, Boston and Chicago – saw the smallest year-over-year price improvements.

 

“Despite some recent mixed economic reports for March, housing continues to be one of the brighter spots in the economy. The 2013 first quarter GDP report shows that residential investment accelerated from the 2012 fourth quarter and made a positive contribution to growth. One open question is the mix of single family and apartments; housing starts data show a larger than usual share is apartments.”

 

In February 2013, the number of cities that posted positive monthly changes increased; Boston, Dallas, New York, Portland and San Diego are now among the MSAs posting month-over-month gains.

 

Even though eight MSAs posted monthly declines, all twenty cities showed increases when compared to their February 2012 levels. Atlanta, Detroit, Las Vegas, Los Angeles, Miami, Minneapolis, Phoenix, San Diego, San Francisco and Tampa were the ten MSAs that continued to report double-digit year-over-year gains. San Diego and Tampa recorded their first months of double-digit annual increases of just over 10.0%.

Sequential change: mixed bag.

 

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Tue, 04/30/2013 - 09:27 | 3513429 BullyBearish
BullyBearish's picture

Shiller this morning on CNBS said stocks were a better investment than real estate.  POMO a big $5B today for window dressing.  May POMO announced at 2p.

Tue, 04/30/2013 - 09:50 | 3513524 ejmoosa
ejmoosa's picture

So is Case the conservative in the Case-Shiller pair?  Because the things I heard out of Shiller's mouth was amazing.

 

We should all live where we want to live?  How does that work?

 

How about we all live where we can afford to pay for the roof over our heads without being subsidized?

Tue, 04/30/2013 - 10:03 | 3513585 maxmad
maxmad's picture

Always good to see Washington DC and the Eastern Seaboard going to the crapper!

Tue, 04/30/2013 - 10:27 | 3513697 smlbizman
smlbizman's picture

it was like listening to norm macdonald....

Tue, 04/30/2013 - 10:40 | 3513738 Handful of Dust
Handful of Dust's picture

Bully, you got that right ! My stocks are up 32%.....mi casa down 38%.......

Tue, 04/30/2013 - 09:33 | 3513438 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

$5 billion POMO hot money injection today should make for a happy stawk fest. Hey...it's all we've got at this point....nevermind the bill coming at any minute drink up be merry and prepare to sandcrab out the back door. 

Tue, 04/30/2013 - 09:34 | 3513446 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

can we order a whole bunch of shit  and get it to go?

Tue, 04/30/2013 - 09:31 | 3513442 mr1963
mr1963's picture

State and local politics and taxation have way too much influence on business, and business is going to move where it can thrive. If you want to work, you need to remain mobile. Buying a house is like tossing an anchor out, and it no longer works in this country.

Tue, 04/30/2013 - 09:34 | 3513450 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

After reading the other article (Housing bubble 2.0) I guess I can believe this.

But how the hell is Detriot up 15% YOY?  They're hitting WAY above their weight class.  I thought we had all but called in the bulldozers to flatten Detroit and start over.

Tue, 04/30/2013 - 09:35 | 3513461 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Time to pile some hot Fed money into rebuilding Detroit! It's all about 'lookin busy' now.

Tue, 04/30/2013 - 09:40 | 3513467 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

 

 

A 15% rise in Detroit real estate is a $15 increase.

Tue, 04/30/2013 - 09:51 | 3513518 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Shit when the houses are going for basically nothing it's easy to get a 15% increase.

Tue, 04/30/2013 - 10:38 | 3513742 venturen
venturen's picture

where are they nothing...they are approaching top bubble prices here.

Tue, 04/30/2013 - 11:25 | 3513963 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

The conversation is about Detroit. Pay attention.

Tue, 04/30/2013 - 09:35 | 3513452 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

but, but, but NAR said....

Tue, 04/30/2013 - 09:37 | 3513456 kito
kito's picture

I'm soooo close to rejoining my fellow sheep......sooo close......can't deal with red pill reality.......

Tue, 04/30/2013 - 09:40 | 3513468 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Kito me and doc answered your slow grind question (sort of) in the apple bond post. I crashed last night before I saw your question.

Tue, 04/30/2013 - 09:46 | 3513490 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Hang in there kito...I think they're doing this to us on purpose just to screw with us....trying to lull us back into the matrix, then the moment they do...BAM!.......shit flies everywhere.

Tue, 04/30/2013 - 09:52 | 3513523 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Kito Dennis Leary described pretty well your other choice and he even did it to music.

I'm just a regular Joe with a regular job. I'm your average white suburbanite slob. I like football and porno and books about war
I've got an average house with a nic hardwood floor. My wife and my job, my kids and my car.My feet on my table and a Cuban cigar
But sometimes that just ain't enough. To keep a man like me interested(Oh no)No way(Uh-uh)
No, I've gotta go out and have fun At someone else's expense(Oh yeah)Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah
I drive really slow in the ultrafast lane While people behind me are going insane
I'm an asshole(He's an asshole, what an asshole)I'm an asshole(He's an asshole, such an asshole)
I use public toilets and piss on the seat I walk around in the summertime saying"How about this heat?"
I'm an asshole(He's an asshole, what an asshole)I'm an asshole(He's the world's biggest asshole)
Sometimes I park in handicapped spaces While handicapped people make handicapped faces
I'm an asshole(He's an asshole, what an asshole)I'm an asshole(He's a real fucking asshole)
Maybe I shouldn't be singing this song Ranting and raving and carrying on Maybe they're right when they tell me I'm wrong
Nah!

Read more: DENNIS LEARY - I'M AN ASSHOLE LYRICS

Tue, 04/30/2013 - 09:38 | 3513475 I Am Not a Copp...
I Am Not a Copper Top's picture

Back to September 2003 levels, actually

Tue, 04/30/2013 - 10:00 | 3513551 j.tennquist
j.tennquist's picture

Can anyone spare a dollar?  I want to buy Detroit.

Tue, 04/30/2013 - 10:02 | 3513566 orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

Philly housing index - and index of "housing vendors" is closing in on a 62% retracement from 2005 highs - nice recovery Ben.

 

http://bullandbearmash.com/chart/weekly-philly-housing-index-hgx-holding...

 

Currently at about 193.

Tue, 04/30/2013 - 10:07 | 3513593 azengrcat
azengrcat's picture

Want to make money at home?  Joe used his fractional reserve account to leverage into REITs and Russel 2000 penny stocks making $542/hr.  Learn more @ Federalreserve . g o v

Tue, 04/30/2013 - 10:07 | 3513596 VictoryOrDeath
VictoryOrDeath's picture

ATL up 16.5% YOY?  Isn't that just dandy...considering prices fell ~25% or more is most areas.  And there is a significant difference between what someone is willing to pay and what your home is appraised for.  Both were considerably low a year ago.  Now just the appraisals are the dog.  Home inventory is dry, and homeowners are still under water or close to it (considering costs to sell/buy a new home), so regardless of what BS stats are thrown up, the RE market still stinks like a dead mouse trapped in a vent.

Tue, 04/30/2013 - 10:21 | 3513653 Phroneo
Phroneo's picture

So more expensive shelter is good again? Housing is 'recovering' I hear. It's almost as if the bubble highs are the new baseline.

Tue, 04/30/2013 - 10:44 | 3513749 Handful of Dust
Handful of Dust's picture

I took a look at some houses I had looked at in New Hampshire back in 2008...they were going for in the range of $750,000 back then....now the Hood is selling for about $480,000/casa.

NE and the East Coast sink further into the Abyss....most of the South I see is stagnant or trending lower despite this being the "Hot Season" for RE. Lots of stuff sitting for weeks on the market or held back by bankers off the market...empty, depreciating, and deteriorating.

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