Welcome Back Recession: Chicago PMI Implodes To 49, First Sub-50 Print Since September 2009

Tyler Durden's picture

Total collapse. That is the only way to explain what just happened with the Chicago PMI which imploded from 52.4, and printed at a contractionary 49: the first sub-50 headline print since September 2009. But that's not all: Deliveries, Prices Paid and Production all hit their lowest since 2009; Backlogs posted their tenth month of contraction in the past 12 months. And what's worst for the Department of Making Shit Up, Employment plunged from 551. to 48.7, its third month over month decline. Actually another way to phrase it: complete disaster. Obviously this number explains why S&P should have no problems crossing 1,600 today. Because for that other Department: of Propaganda and Creating money out of thin air, this means only one thing: the Fed is preparing to print ONE KROOGOL MORE!

It appears nobody told the respondents that the economy is back in stall speed.

  • Business activity was soft again in March, but we are optimistic for 2nd quarter and overall for 2013. Seems like some key raw materials are forecasted to moderate and even decline a bit over next several months, e.g. linerboard, resins.
  • Our orders are consistent, we have a steady flow of work currently, 1st quarter was a huge improvement from 2012 start.
  • New order intake is steady but remains at the lowered 2012 level. Afraid this may become the dreaded "new normal".
  • "Business is steady as she goes."
  • The economy is looking as if it is turning the corner. It is slowly gaining and looks like it will continue to do so.

Full horrendous report here

Meanwhile, elsewhere in contradictory reports...

Consumer Confidence just smashed expectations to the upside by the most in 14 months...


Led - surprise - by hope and dreams of the future... at its highest in 5 months...


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venturen's picture


insanelysane's picture

Of course, because everyone knows the 49 is over inflated and should be 29 as in 1929.

bernorange's picture

A kroogol, eh?  Think that will be enough?

Richard Chesler's picture


He meant the recession

AlaricBalth's picture

Here are the five questions the Conference Board uses for the Consumer Confidence Index. They send out 5000 questionnaires and get back about 2500 each month. I'm surprised the return rate isn't higher due to the fact that the survey is multiple choice and not in the form of an essay. I also believe an optimism bias, which is always stronger during negative events, is clearly at play here.

1. How would you rate the present general business conditions in your area? Good, normal, or bad? (Current)
2. Six months from now, do you think they will be better, the same, or worse? (Future)
3. What would you say about available jobs in your area right now? Plenty, not so many, or hard to get? (Current)
4. Six months from now, do you think there will be more, the same, or fewer jobs available in your area? (Future)
5. How would you guess your total family income to be six months from now? Higher, the same, or lower? (Future)

Temporalist's picture

I have noticed that there are two terms used recently that do not appear in the ZH Glossary.

Here I'd like to submit the definition of the terms Kroogle and Moar.


Moar, a number created by Keynesian monetary sorcerers to describe their "successes", is a number, for whatever number is given or chosen, is more than that number.

Kroogle, an exponent of Moar without strict definition.

To use both in a sentence, if Chuck Norris was a number he would be a Kroogle moar than a Kroogle.

franzpick's picture

The family historian, Aunt Etta Mology, says Kroogle is a mispelling of the diminutive for child, the Krugle, from the large German clan that overpopulated their farming area and became extinct, the Krugmans.

Jekyll_n_Hyde_Island's picture

I like where Temporalist's head is at. 

  Here's my take on the definitions by popular usage within context:

  Onomatopoeia:  Moar --  When encountering the word observers are meant to hear the groan or growl of a giant bottom-feeding catfish or a similarly stupid, gluttonous creature without higher brain function. 

  Etymology: Probably coined with intent to include "roar" in a cry for more, imbuing a a mob mentality.  "Must.  Print.  MOAR!"

  Common Use:  Article: 1. Intentional misspelling of "more" always used with implied or inferred meaning. See implications below

  Moar -- Adjective: 1. "He's part of the Moar Party."  Building association with general economic ass-hattery tied to spending with no measure or expectation of consequence.  

  Other implications include garden variety retardation, i.e. full retard (see tropic thunder and Simple Jack Trailers), JDS (Jaime Dimon Syndrome) see Lucifarian Opulence for Dummies, and Bernankisms (small creatures in Ben Bernanke's beard that prevent him from doing the right thing.)

marathonman's picture

'economic ass-hattery'

That's good.  That's really good.

tenpanhandle's picture

I'm still a little confused.  Does this mean that Chuck Norris is 2 Kroogles?  And should I play the paper kroogle game or stick with physical krooglerands?


Imminent Crucible's picture

No, it means that in a rationally valued world (an abstract concept for theoretical purposes only), Norris would have a notional value of Kroogol squared.

The important takeaway is not the Norris valuation. It is that we read ZeroHedge because here we get answers to our questions, such as "What number comes after googol?"

RE your other question, you have to stick with the paper Kroogol game because, by definition, ALL Kroogols are paper Kroogols. There is only a single undocumented sighting of a physical Krooglerand, and that was reported by Fat Larry Summers when he was looking under Kroogman's sofa cushions for something to snack on.

Voicefather's picture

Probably not. Better make it a kroogolplex just to be safe.

Pool Shark's picture



Not to pick nits Tyler, but...

It also printed negative in September (49.7) and October (49.9) of 2012:



Xibalba's picture

meanwhile premiums for physical silver (not paper trash) are north of 20%

NoDebt's picture

A recession while the Fed has the spigot wide open?  Unpossible.

FYI- consumer confidence is considered "neutral" at 100.  Where are we now?  Oh, yeah.  Double digits below that like we've been for YEARS now.

Super Marco's picture

Ironically with this rally the new Gatsby film comes out this month.

Cult_of_Reason's picture

Round 49.0 is a preliminary number, it will be revised even lower.

DeadFred's picture

Sell in May then go away. We have our double top. It will do my heart good to see a correction to the BS ramp. I have two questions in the back of my mind. Will the algos get panicky once again on Monday when they read all the "crash, crash, crash" in print (flash crash anniversary) and will the newly coined Kroogol become a powerful meme against the dark side? Here's to hope for change.

scatterbrains's picture

I'd guess we'll get through the May 6th date just fine but then comes the May 10th  1837 crash/bank run anniversary under a new moon no less.

tango's picture

I'm not sure about that but it does go along with one of the many critics of the FED who regularly throw a dose of reality into the mix.  This speaker (businesswoman) said the market is in a win-win mood.  If things go down, it goes up because QE is extended.  If things go up, the market also rises because economic Oz is just around the corner.  This is the best possible position for Bernanke.  When you get "conservative" CEOs screaming for more debt, you know they're hooked.

Aeternus's picture

Where is a Krugman Alien Invasion when you need one?



WTFx10's picture

They have been invading since the 1700's. They use fiat as there weapon of choice.

Heres a hint, krugman is one of them.

A Nanny Moose's picture

krugman is one of them.

That is an insult to aliens, legal or otherwise.

Dudeskis's picture

Ugh, I can't even sit down and enjoy my morning Bernanke with this bad news! Someone revise these numbers!

krispkritter's picture

Of course...it's Buyagra.

And we're way past the 4 hour mark and Dr. Krugman recommended we take two more and call him in the morning...

Al Gorerhythm's picture

Nope, it looks as if it's down. I gues we'll have to wait till 2.30.

Rainman's picture

Massively bullish....print moar !!

Debtonation's picture

Are we in a recession yet?

ParkAveFlasher's picture

In the latest edition of Merriam-Webster's dictionary, I found this:


1 [ri-sesh-uhn] Show IPA noun
the act of receding or withdrawing. 2.
a receding part of a wall, building, etc. 3.
a withdrawing procession, as at the end of a religious service. 4.
Economics .  see "mild recovery."

Snoopy the Economist's picture

So what is the definition of depression then? 


Maybe: "When not enough fiat currency is printed into existence"

onewayticket2's picture

A clear BUY signal....

gjp's picture

Yep, more recession, more unemployed, means more people surfing the web looking for jobs on LinkedIn.  Back up the truck!  It's only 100x 2014 earnings!  Get in before Ben does!

piliage's picture

Obviously the solution to this very simple problem is 85 Billion USD a month is not enough QE. Duh!

NoWayJose's picture

Once again the Fed stares at economic reality and sees that it's policies are hurting the recovery instead of helping it - then they conclude that they need to do MOAR of the same thing!

Smegley Wanxalot's picture

Screw the Chitcago PMI. Anyone know who Kim Kardashian screwed last night? I only want the important news.

Savyindallas's picture

Why isn't there more coverage of the gay NBA has-been who averaged 1 point per game last year and who came out of the closet? I want to know all the juicy details about who he has been sleeping with. 

ParkAveFlasher's picture

He accompanied Rodman to NK.  It's all relevant.

orangegeek's picture

Kim K?  That's foul.


Her flabby toilet is bigger than Moochelle's.

hedgeless_horseman's picture



...the midwives became suspicious that something was going on as she became increasingly "pushy and insensitive."

Awesome.  I am going to start keeping a list of women that exhibit such suspicious behavior.

Cathartes Aura's picture

with pics, no doubt.


"See something, say something"

MilleniumJane's picture

I threw up in my mouth a little when I saw the headline.  Disgusting.  There are indeed monsters living among us.

A Nanny Moose's picture

Don't hate the players. Hate the game.

Are unwanted rugrats subsidized in the UK, like they are in the US? How else, other than immigration, does one keep a ponzi afloat?

Cathartes Aura's picture

apparently she's amrkn, and the adopted children are from "other" countries. . .

stormsailor's picture

so stawks should have no trouble reaching all time highs today.


in other news, water is wet, the sky is blue, and women have secrets.