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ADP Private Jobs Plunge, Miss; Fall For Fifth Month In A Row

Tyler Durden's picture




 

With the March Payroll number printing at a miserable 88K compared to ADP's 158K print, it was only a matter of time before Mark Zandi, still furious from getting the news he won't be the next GSE Tzar, revised the last month's data to 131K as he just did. Concurrently he also announced that the just released April ADP was a huge miss to expectations of 150K, printing at just 119K, or a 31K miss. This was the 5th month in a row of declines excluding the small bounce in February data. It also means that the combined miss to expectations including March (original estimate +200K) and April (estimate 150K) is precisely 100K. This excludes whatever revisions ADP will do to the April number following the even bigger looming NFP miss. Manufacturing jobs? -10,000. Oh yes, anyone looking for seasonally unadjusted ADP data, good luck - keep on looking. In short: yet another atrocious economic data point which however may need the support of the equally horrible sub-49 Mfg ISM due out shortly to take out 1600 in the S&P. 

Aside for the tiny bounce in February, this would be the 5th consecutive drop in the ADP number starting with the November 276K surge, driven purely by the QE4EVA euphoria.

Broken down by job category:

Where the jobs are(n't): anyone still paying attention to Obama's promise to add however many million manufacturing jobs in five years or whatever?

The bulk of jobs created in ultra small and mega large companies. Supposedly. At least until the revision.

 

For the second miss (amassing a 100k miss overall in two months thanks to the revision) in a row...

 

From the press release:

Service-providing jobs increased by 113,000, the weakest pace of growth in seven months. Among the service industries reported by the ADP National Employment Report, trade/transportation/utilities had the largest gain with 29,000 jobs added over the month.

 

Professional/business services followed, adding 20,000 jobs, and financial activities added 7,000 jobs.

 

"During the month of April 2013, U.S. private sector employment increased by 119,000 jobs, representing the slowest pace of expansion since September 2012," said Carlos A. Rodriguez, president and chief executive officer of ADP. "The services sector generated the overwhelming majority of new jobs in April, contributing a total of 113,000, which helped to offset overall softness in the goods-producing sector, which was marked by a loss of 10,000 manufacturing jobs."

 

Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, said, “Job growth appears to be slowing in response to very significant fiscal headwinds. Tax increases and government spending cuts are beginning to hit the job market. Job growth has slowed across all industries and most significantly among companies that employ between 20 and 499 workers.”

And the best thing of all: the social-media friendly ADP infographic:

Infographic: ADP National Employment Report Shows Slower Pace of Job Gains; 119,000 Jobs Added in April

 

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Wed, 05/01/2013 - 08:37 | 3517233 lizzy36
lizzy36's picture

FOMC should clearly double bond purchases.

Need MOAR trickle down wealth effect.

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 08:38 | 3517243 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

All those soon to be laid off are begging the Fed to purchase more MBS

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 08:43 | 3517265 espirit
espirit's picture

Wow!  119k employed in the U.S.?  That's pretty good and higher than I'd expected.

/snark

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 08:49 | 3517286 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Living the dream!

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 08:55 | 3517292 knukles
knukles's picture

Transitoitionalemporaryemporalelfcorrectingnummmummmgood

And, By the Way, it wuzalldueta May following April this year.

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 11:32 | 3518063 Shocker
Shocker's picture

Surprised... Yeah you shouldn't be

Layoff List

http://www.dailyjobcuts.com

/

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 08:43 | 3517267 Debtonation
Debtonation's picture

And gold is trading down on this?

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 08:48 | 3517274 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

an obviously false news story from the AP ("White House on fire. President injured" caused the market to plunge 100 points. What is it that we are saying here that...MOVES THIS THING.

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 08:50 | 3517279 espirit
espirit's picture

Need another ZH tweet to tweak the algos.

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 08:52 | 3517283 kito
kito's picture

Ben will hint on tightening today as per the headlines this morning...

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 08:59 | 3517321 Bobbyrib
Bobbyrib's picture

They can't afford to mention tightening. Stocks would most certainly take a hit if the Fed mentions tightening and we all know that the Fed can't let that happen.

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 09:00 | 3517322 Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

This will be an interesting FOMC minutes. Especially with the disaster of an economy and unemployment. We have clear signs Bernanke's policy is not working to reduce unemployment now four years later and he is likely going to leave the next chairman with a pile of problems. It is no longer possible for him to be so smug. Hint of a tightening. Maybe. But his actions will be otherwise.

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 10:01 | 3517596 Hohum
Hohum's picture

Not "tightening," tapering.

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 09:16 | 3517384 venturen
venturen's picture

what do MBS's have to do with employment? Never could figure out why enriching bankers produced jobs..well outside of bondtraders and investment bank scammers. if demand was low...don't interest rates go down naturally? Of course...letting "capitalism" work would hurt Washington and scamming investment bankers...I suppose.

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 08:40 | 3517251 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

We all know now that the ONLY thing that matters is stawks being up yet another day! Fuck everything and everyone else!

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 08:40 | 3517254 spastic_colon
spastic_colon's picture

this of course plays right into weakness right around fed announcement.....perfectly choreographed even though this report is junk

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 08:48 | 3517259 DormRoom
DormRoom's picture

Yeah, cuz $2 trillion dollars, and 4 years later, the wealth effect is finally trickling down. /sarc

 

It's a Great Recession when Central Bankers start losing their jobs.

 

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 08:50 | 3517278 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

again. TWITTER IS A PRIVATE COMPANY. all these Street dogs WANT that IPO. "but how bad do they want us" is what i want to know...

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 08:47 | 3517269 azzhatter
azzhatter's picture

Ben needs to go fuck himself with a rusty chainsaw

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 08:51 | 3517281 Cursive
Cursive's picture

@azzhatter

The Gadsden flag circa 2013.  Put this on a flag and we can start flying it on Memorial Day.

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 08:53 | 3517304 DavidC
DavidC's picture

No POMO today though, wonder if that will make ANY difference.

DavidC

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 09:23 | 3517408 yogibear
yogibear's picture

More  and bigger QE. 

Bubblize the stock market beyond the imagination.

 

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 08:37 | 3517234 q99x2
q99x2's picture

Wealth effect. No one has to work any more.

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 09:00 | 3517313 knukles
knukles's picture

Da troof, bro...

To wit, the increasing number of people in California who are living out doors because of the fine weather year round.  No jobs, independent, enjoying the fine climate and out of doors natural organic sustainable recreational facilities the "state" has to offer.
And the numbers are growing quite rapidly!

Proof that current policies are working like Barbara Streisand's Hot Knife through Buttah... and popular to boot!

I best get to a meeting before I corrode my mind for the day....

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 08:36 | 3517238 I am more equal...
I am more equal than others's picture

This will cause a 15 point surge in the SP

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 08:38 | 3517245 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

WOW so then 1600 is already in the bag today!

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 09:18 | 3517393 venturen
venturen's picture

Just think if it was negative...we could have made 1700.

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 08:41 | 3517246 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

 

 

It's been cold in the north...the immigrant landscapers are still clinging to their UE benefits. 

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 08:44 | 3517258 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

     Santelli just had another one of his epic rants. Go get that pussy shill LIEsman. Kernan was picking the corn from last nights dinner out of his teeth, as usual.

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 08:53 | 3517291 ihedgemyhedges
ihedgemyhedges's picture

You actually watch that crap? Tonight, you can update us on Cramer's biggest buy recommendation......

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 08:58 | 3517306 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

      I watch key macro releases on CNBS when I wake up in the morning, then I visit the 'oval office' and take a big Liesman. That's the extent of my CNBS patronage...

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 09:34 | 3517463 ihedgemyhedges
ihedgemyhedges's picture

Bloomberg has hotter chicks though.......

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 10:08 | 3517619 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 +1

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 10:07 | 3517628 Scro
Scro's picture

I don't remember having corn.

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 08:42 | 3517261 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Damn that sequester anyway, now the Bernank has to print moar to compensate for congresses failings.

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 08:46 | 3517266 spastic_colon
spastic_colon's picture

all those with jobs in manufacturing also appear to have a second job as a bank teller

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 08:48 | 3517272 the not so migh...
the not so mighty maximiza's picture

they control the horozontal and the verticle, but now how it ends in flat line.

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 08:48 | 3517273 new game
new game's picture

this trend is worldwide - world slowdown in a macro macro overview.

world reccesion bitchez>done tapped out>credit expansion running out of credit worthy willing participants, except bonds created for central bank purchase.

how does that end?

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 08:46 | 3517275 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

The answer is SO simple! Just need to ramp up bond purchases with Bernank Clownbux to around $500 billion/month! DUH! 

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 10:04 | 3517607 Navymugsy
Navymugsy's picture

Only $500,000,000,000 a month? Glad under achievers like you aren't in charge. Print Benny, print!

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 11:35 | 3518085 Imminent Crucible
Imminent Crucible's picture

$500 Billion MOAR every month sounds about right. And the Kroogol will tell you, "As long as the Too Big To Jails keep that money parked over at the Fed, we won't need to worry about inflation".

No. And we won't have to worry about an economic recovery, either. M2V and M1 Multiplier charts are still negative. Mo' money, goin nowhere.

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 08:47 | 3517277 Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

Does the American public think Obama is the answer or the problem? At least three more years of deterioration coming without a doubt. Prepare for an unprecedented downturn imo ...

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 09:07 | 3517288 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Ben's trickling on me gives me ther urge to sing

 

I feel wealthy..oh so wealthy..I feel wealthy and healthy and wise. I feel shitty ..oh so shitty..I feel shitty everything's more expensive today...

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 08:52 | 3517289 q99x2
q99x2's picture

Hell you could be a Chechan terrorist and Bernanke print you up a $100,000 to do what ever you want. Work, you gotta be kidding me.

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 09:08 | 3517331 knukles
knukles's picture

Even after the Russlies and Ragheads* toldja that he was fucking dangerous as a over heated pressure cooker.
But oh, fucking no, me and granny's still getting groped and irradiated at the airport while this fuck is getting government handouts.

This shit keeps up at some point the citizenry will snap and there will be heads on sticks.  And it's all avoidable, in the hands of TPTB, FFS!

 

* Saudi's way of saying, in writing, sorry for 9/11

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 10:05 | 3517612 IridiumRebel
IridiumRebel's picture

There is a notable uptick in anger by the friendly plebes around me. They trust this.gov as far as they can bowl them.

 

BTW, yesterday your comment "So the H is for Harold...." made me almost cry in laughter. I don't even remember the thread, but damn that was funny.

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 08:53 | 3517293 digitlman
digitlman's picture

The "more stimulus needed" crowd has been warming up for the last few weeks.

 

Fuck those guys.  If you need more stimulus, try shoving a broomstick up yer asses.

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 08:51 | 3517295 TrumpXVI
TrumpXVI's picture

Awesome!

It just doesn't GET any better than this; S&P 1,600 here we come!

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 08:54 | 3517297 Hongcha
Hongcha's picture

SPY is down .07 at this moment.

Who will come in and buy the dip?

It is just treading water until its next move to 170.

 

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 09:11 | 3517348 bonzo112358
bonzo112358's picture

CNBC Special: Markets in Turmoil

Host: "How are you dealing with this major market meltdown?"

Guest: "You see Host, I have this button on my screen that says 'buy'.  So I type in a three or four letter string and if I get a hit, I press this buy button over here."

Host: "And what is this other button over here?"

Guest: "That is the mythical 'Sell' button.  It doesn't actually work.  It's there for decorative purposes."

Host: "But aren't you worried that this 0.1% correction might turn into a 0.2% correction?"

Guest: "Ah you are so naive.  This method is called 'buying the dip' and works for all of us fund managers."

Host: "You are a brilliant man."

Guest: "Yes, yes I am."

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 08:54 | 3517299 thismarketisrigged
thismarketisrigged's picture

ok, so dow should hit the 15,000 mark today and s&p should easily surpass the 1600 mark with this news.

 

 

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 08:55 | 3517308 Silverhog
Silverhog's picture

And Silver gets taken to the woodshed for another butt fuck. Raise those premiums boys!

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 08:52 | 3517300 DavidC
DavidC's picture

Joe Stiglitz was on Newsnight here in the UK the other evening, going on about how Europe's austerity (which isn't) isn't working, and how it should be stimulating.

It's working well in the US, isn't it Joe?

DavidC

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 08:52 | 3517301 rsnoble
rsnoble's picture

Engineering jobs are in demand. LMFAO.  These motherfuckers are so full of shit. 

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 09:00 | 3517324 Tsar Pointless
Tsar Pointless's picture

Indeed they are full of shit, rsnoble.

I recently was let go from a fairly sizable engineering firm working as an administrative assistant here in Pittsburgh. Business essentially dried up to nothing. It has never been this bad, I was told.

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 08:58 | 3517310 Juggernaut Nihilism
Juggernaut Nihilism's picture

Government jobs are bound to be down again as well. Most federal agencies are still on a hiring freeze.  (I work for the DoD... my department had several engineers we were in the processing of vetting, but all that got put on hold, likely at least until September, due to agency-wide freezes).  So don't expect government hiring to support NFP this Friday.

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 08:59 | 3517311 MilwaukeeMark
MilwaukeeMark's picture

Isn't it about time for the guy with the little square mustache to step out of the wings and promise to restore our national honor?

Or was it that dark skinned guy and I just missed it?

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 09:00 | 3517323 d edwards
d edwards's picture

It was the dark skinned guy four years ago who promised "hope and change."

Same shit, different guy.

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 10:32 | 3517738 King_Julian
King_Julian's picture

That train is never late! Bring on the national socialists! /sarc. I noticed they approved a morning after pill over the counter for 15 year olds= Final solution without the construction jobs. Sick fucks. See where this is going?

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 11:47 | 3518177 Law97
Law97's picture

We will get our brutal fascist dictator in due time.  Patience....

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 09:05 | 3517327 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Do algos read parenthesis? "ADP Soars! (down)"

If they don't read inside parenthesis it could be bullish.

Of course, if they do read inside parenthesis, it could be bullish as well, because the FED may end all talk of ending QE - which is bad - but it's good.

Time to buy a gallon of milk and some Oreo's.

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 09:08 | 3517334 orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

Must keep pushing US Dollar down.

 

Must keep pushing Euro and Yen up.

 

Must keep US indexes up - Dow down only 24 - we can do this.

 

Tomorrow everyone will forget this awful number.  We don't need no stinking PMI's either.

 

HEAVE!!! HEAVE!!! HEAVE!!!

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 09:10 | 3517342 More_sellers_th...
More_sellers_than_buyers's picture

If all of the numbers are bad, and all of the numbers are fictional, than how bad are things really????  Reminds me of the old days when GE would miss buy a penny and they would crush it.  I remember asking an old wall streeter st the time "why are they killing it? they only missed by a penny? " and he would say,"well if they couldn't fudge it enough not to miss by a penny things must really be bad."

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 09:10 | 3517343 1000 splendid suns
1000 splendid suns's picture

<-- This will end badly.

<-- BFD, everything is fine, quit being so negative.

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 09:12 | 3517354 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

Short stocks buy gold.  The latest hedgey fad trade is about to implode.

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 09:16 | 3517373 venturen
venturen's picture

We don't need jobs...we have a printer!

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 09:22 | 3517405 Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

This is GREAT news for the DJIA; I expect at 75 point uptick thanks to today's news.

Remember, in a usury and rentier's economy, bad news (lower wages, unemployment, low housing sales, even deflation) is GOOD. 

Creditors benefit from deflation (core deflation: wages, clothes, etc) because they can extract more from debtors as they get anted off. 

However, the inflation that the Peter Schiff types talk about is already happening in health care, rent costs, and *real* food (not the fake shit).  Of course he doesn't talk about that, because his clients are the ones benefitting from it.

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 09:27 | 3517431 dontgoforit
dontgoforit's picture

OK; so obama wins - destruction of the U.S. via it's economy.  What a eff'n loser.  Shot us all without a gun.

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 09:27 | 3517434 The Second Rule
The Second Rule's picture

Hell hath no fury like a Tzar scorned.

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 09:28 | 3517439 yogibear
yogibear's picture

Bubble Bernanke and the Fed will announce  QE mega.

He intends on inflate equities to make the DOT COM bubble look insignificant.

Strategy:

1.) Jobs don't matter (New Normal) 

2.) Profits don't matter 

Fed will buy up housing, stocks and make the debt disappear by putting it all off balance sheet.

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 09:37 | 3517471 Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

RE:

Profits don't matter

It's more like "profits" - because corporations are doing as good as they ever have, but it is all a rouse. 

Basically, it's proifts for the corporate execs and shit sandwiches for the rest of us.  Hence why QE4EVA will continue.

Plus, they can keep printing to infinity because the money they print will never hit the populaces hands anyways.  You kind of need velocity of cash for inflation to take hold.

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 11:15 | 3517930 yogibear
yogibear's picture

Oh, printing does hit. In the form of higher asset prices.

It funds IPOs in the market, housing. Food.

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 11:52 | 3518200 Law97
Law97's picture

That's exactly right.  As long as we keep getting a shit sandwich, the Fed will continue to print.  Of course the printing is exactly WHY we are getting the shit sandwich.  It's like the Fed is saying we are going to fuck you and the worse you feel for being fucked, the more we will keep fucking you.  Sorry for the string of f-bombs, but it's the only way to begin to accurately convey what is happeneing.

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 09:26 | 3517442 shermacman
shermacman's picture

Recovery Summer Part V, bitchez!!!

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 09:43 | 3517503 NEOSERF
NEOSERF's picture

Furloughs bitchez!

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 09:48 | 3517535 dobermangang
dobermangang's picture

The economy is terrible and it's getting worse.  In fact, it's so bad that...... Michelle Obama is no longer proud of her country again.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oShTJ90fC34

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 09:56 | 3517566 Edward Fiatski
Edward Fiatski's picture

It's a post-industrial economy, Tyler. :)

/semi-sarc

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 10:01 | 3517586 Hohum
Hohum's picture

ADP missed expectations?  Well then, it should be 200K+ from the BLS on Friday.

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 10:26 | 3517722 Tombstone
Tombstone's picture

Completely in line with the socialist planned welfare state. 

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 10:36 | 3517770 The Carbonator
The Carbonator's picture

Obamacare IS destroying jobs in this country.  Why on earth would anyone want to hire anybody and risk a major medical expense or tax on your business.

Expect IT expenditures to increase as the amount of automation and outsourcing will have to keep pace with the lack of hiring.

Expect more layoffs for those jobs or business that can't automate or outsource to get them UNDER the magic # of Employees that mandates Obamacare.

Just remember, when you get sick and your new Obamacare coverage sucks just thank your Left Wing Progressive Democrats.

Did you read that bill yet Stretch Faced Pelosi?

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 11:19 | 3517938 Trampy
Trampy's picture

crude oil and soybeans are down bigtime.

this could be my chance to go long December corn @ $5.00.

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 16:37 | 3519616 Nue
Nue's picture

Just put on your solid Gold slippers and keep repeating "It's not a recession, it's not a recession, it's not a recession"

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