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Goldman Confirms Global Slowdown Is Deepening

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/01/2013 22:26 -0400

Downward revisions to previously 'hopeful' levels for Goldman's Global Leading Indicator (GLI) suggest a significantly softer patch for global activity consistent with subdued growth in the near-term. The GLI has now been in 'slowdown' phase for four consecutive months and while it has not reached the 'contraction' phase yet, empirical results show this phase far less supportive of risk-assets than the current exuberance suggests. With Korean Exports, Global PMIs, and Industrial Metals all disappointing, the most concerning aspect is Goldman's three-key-risks (US growth, Euro 'risk', and China growth) have all upticked significantly in recent weeks after consistently falling all year. As the Swirlogram below indicates, the 'Slowdown' is deepening.

The Swirlogram has spoken...

and at the same time, the big three risks are coming back to life once again...

but US stocks are outperforming their typical slowdown phase performance... even as EM stocks, World Growth stocks, Oil, and Copper all drastically underperform...

Charts: Goldman Sachs

- advertisements -

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 22:30 | 3520973 SeanJKerrigan

A friend of mine suggested that to help drive down the deficit, the government should allow people to name a drone strike after a loved one in the same way people register star names. Come on. Where are all the entrepreneurs out there? DroneRegistry.com is still available!

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 22:35 | 3520992 knukles

Just dawned upon me that either this is da Troof or a fantastic piece of disinformation...
.... because the swirl goes clockwise, same way water flows down a drain.

Most Interesting, Captain
-Commander Spock*

_{^{* Arguably the most important and influential philosopher of the 20th century}}

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 22:33 | 3520999 MountainGreenhouse

Better start getting into better shape now while its easier, times are going to get tougher... http://www.fitnesstrainingreview.com/buy-p90x/

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 22:40 | 3521017 Dr. Engali

I've been doing p90x for over four years now.

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 22:42 | 3521023 kito

ive been shooting h&k p30s for four years now.............................

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 22:49 | 3521042 Dr. Engali

I took my Ruger M77 out tonight. Have to keep the skills up. One never knows when they may need to reach out and touch some one.

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 22:50 | 3521057 kito

30-06???? 308???

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 22:59 | 3521091 Manthong

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-05-01/guest-post-what-it-means-be-free-america#comment-3520961

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 23:04 | 3521110 TwoShortPlanks

Sooooo, we needed some Gold.

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 23:11 | 3521139 Manthong

mmm.. the whole fiat and metal debasement thing..

how much lower can they get than Pb?

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 23:10 | 3521106 Dr. Engali

It's a .270, my favorite gun to shoot.

Sat, 05/04/2013 - 08:57 | 3529833 Headbanger

7mm-08.. Comparable ballistics coeff to 308 but less recoil.

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 23:09 | 3521129 NoDebt

Wait.... what? You've been doing P90x for 4 years now? Shit, you could probably kick my ass all around the block.

The only P90 I've been around lately is my old Ruger P90 .45 ACP. I'm getting to be a bit of a surgeon with that old clunker. Something to be said for practicing with the same gun for 20 years.

Glad you are skilled with a long gun. I long ago gave up on being worth a cup of warm spit beyond 100 Yards. No point putting a 1000 yd-capable gun in my hands. I couldn't hit a house with it at less than half that distance.

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 23:16 | 3521149 Dr. Engali

Problem is I don't get to shoot it past 300 yards very often. That's the longest distance at the range. Occasionally I can take it to a friends house and stretch it out, but that's not very often.

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 23:54 | 3521186 Manthong

oh crud..

really decent optics can correct for the most presbyopic of eyeballs and point of aim and composure is really all you really need for the short game.

maybe I am wrong.. but stuff usually works out over time.

Thu, 05/02/2013 - 06:50 | 3521596 Mototard at Large

Most shooting engagements occur at less than 25 metres. As such, the ability to hit something at 300 to 1000 metres is seriously cool, but unlikely to be of value unless you are a sniper in Afghanistan.

Thu, 05/02/2013 - 07:10 | 3521610 Urban Redneck

Gun crime in the US is largely composed of armed robbery (which generally necessitates close physical proximity). However, since I would consider hunting to often include "shooting engagements", I there's a separate debate about the premise.

A hostage situation at 5 yards requires more precision than a piece of paper or plate steel at 500 yards, but at 500 yards it is often easier to correctly diagnose the errors of methodology which contribute to inaccuracy at shorter distances.

Put another way- it's easier to fake proficiency or camouflage incompetence with a firearm at short distances, but if TSHTF one will regret faking it or hiding it rather quickly.

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 22:48 | 3521054 Manthong

“the government should allow people to name a drone strike after a loved one”

Wow.. that could be like the bricks with your name that the local park district sells for the recreational areas so that you have some enduring ego thing.. cool.. sign me up for a few Kg of HE.

Thu, 05/02/2013 - 06:36 | 3521587 Go Tribe

I like the idea as well. We will sit around and brag about how many children our drones killed that day. "A wedding party? That's nothing. Let me tell you about..." The utlimate reward will be getting to drive the thing once you have so many hits. And of course, you can sell rights to labelling which will increase with each new kill. Ain't freedom great?

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 23:08 | 3521126 jerry_theking_lawler

i've been investing in pressure cookers for decades.....

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 22:47 | 3521032 SafelyGraze

in case you don't already subscribe to "Modern and Contemporary Poetry Today", there's a nice one on page 459 of the current issue

Efficiencies

It costs more to grow your food
than to ship it in from South America

and a gym membership is cheaper than
running in place in front of your tv.

If you own a forest, you're better off cutting it down
than just leaving it alone

and you'll go broke trying to breathe on your own
instead of renting a respirator.

What the fuck is all that about.

Thu, 05/02/2013 - 03:18 | 3521477 Kirk2NCC1701

Easy... Jedi mind trick. Taught at select and exclusive private schools. Guaranteed to work.

You'd know exactly what I'm talking about if you had the Translator Ring.

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 22:48 | 3521053 Call me Ishmael

Unrelated video a ZH'er should like. It's me. I just made it. I'm trying to pay back the Government for a loan.

http://youtu.be/hwRTN2pplr8

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 23:24 | 3521166 macholatte

OMG! That's hilarious!

Could I pay the debt?

You cannot pay the debt, no, because the status is that you are not able to pay.

You can't make this shit up.

Thu, 05/02/2013 - 09:28 | 3521938 SafelyGraze

"I'm trying to pay back the Government for a loan."

the best part is the way she uses a tone of voice as if talking to a child

and also wonderful: the phrases "I'm sorry but" and "it's our policy"

_{fwiw, she used to work in customer service for a medical insurer.}

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 23:33 | 3521199 PersonalRespons...

Is your real name K by any chance?

Thu, 05/02/2013 - 00:12 | 3521288 Prometheus418

+1 for the Kafka reference- well played.

Thu, 05/02/2013 - 01:16 | 3521361 Call me Ishmael

I haven't read the castle but K sounds like he has some things in common with me. I was a land surveyor for nine years.

Thu, 05/02/2013 - 07:48 | 3521645 theliberalliberal

You should also watch the Australian movie "the castle"

"tell him he's dreaming"...classic

Thu, 05/02/2013 - 05:12 | 3521536 UK debt marsh

Wow -great composure - Xanax?

At least K got to meet somebody.

I love the earnest way in which the person at the other end of the line keeping churning out the BS without shame or apology - you can see how staffing the bureaucracy of an oppressive government would be a no-brainer.

Thu, 05/02/2013 - 08:02 | 3521680 onewayticket2

composure? no, he just isnt opposed to keeping their money in his pocket....he's earning, what?, 0.25% on that cash? that more than makes up for the 9.25% he's getting charged....oh, wait. nevermind.

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 23:44 | 3521228 ForTheWorld

Holy geez that makes my brain hurt more than it already does. You retained a great deal more composure than I would have.

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 23:07 | 3521077 socalbeach

Assume the growth is cyclical and model it by cos(t) where t is time. Then the acceleration which is the rate of change of growth is -sin(t) using calculus.

In the above plot, growth is the X axis and acceleration is the Y axis, so then you're plotting (cos(t), -sin(t)). Starting at time t=0, that traces out a clockwise circle starting at the (x,y) point (1,0).

Thu, 05/02/2013 - 01:29 | 3521395 mkkby

According the the swirly thing, over the last year we've gone from contraction to expansion and back again. Yet the markets haven't changed in any way. I guess this is more goldman free advice ... no matter what the economy does just BTFD.

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 23:07 | 3521123 Freddie

Put swivels at the top of lamp posts so we can swirl around Goldman banksters at the end of a rope & a noose when the SHTF.

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 23:50 | 3521238 Seer

"the swirl goes clockwise, same way water flows down a drain"

Depends on which hemisphere you're in. But anyway, down the drain is STILL down the drain!

I'm thinking that they might be able to catch more people's attention if they did this in some sort of slinky-o-gram...

Thu, 05/02/2013 - 08:13 | 3521714 Divine Wind

I have been stacking Au and Ag for a little over 4 years now.

Nice workout !

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 22:31 | 3520978 Aeternus

Game over man, Game over!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mfXC9T8hzlY

Thu, 05/02/2013 - 06:34 | 3521585 SmallerGovNow2

good video at the heart of the matter....

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 22:29 | 3520979 fonzannoon

A global slowdown is bullish because that means a global recovery is around the corner.

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 22:35 | 3520980 otto skorzeny

am I the only one that gets turned on by swirlograms?

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 22:29 | 3520982 Gamma735

Circling the drain. All had to end sometime.

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 22:52 | 3521068 TheFourthStooge-ing

I wonder how many times the turd had to circle the bowl in their swirlogram before GS figured it out.

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 23:05 | 3521117 DoChenRollingBearing

+ 8 times 'round!

LOLOLOL..... Ha ha ha ha ha ha......

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 22:32 | 3520984 firstdivision

This means one of two things, the global economy is improving, or Goldman is panhandling for global QE

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 23:52 | 3521241 Seer

OR, they're pushing etch-a-sketches?

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 22:31 | 3520988 Hopeless for Change

Bullish.

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 22:31 | 3520993 max2205

Btfd

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 22:40 | 3521008 Kina

Well Europe will be forever stuffed whilst so many weak economies are yoked to a currency much too strong for their fundamentals....but too weak for Germany who are just loving the cheaper Euro (than DMark).

I cannot imagine how Spain, Italy, Greece, Portugal et al are going to recover whilst the Euro is their currency.

Thu, 05/02/2013 - 06:14 | 3521571 SmallerGovNow2

they aren't. over twenty five percent UE is complete melt down...

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 22:38 | 3521012 Dr. Engali

Fucking Yahoo headlines today were all about "The Sequester Kicking In" and slowing down the economy. I have never seen a "news site" bend itself in so many different ways to cover for Obummer.

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 22:50 | 3521050 NoDebt

Doc- Yahoo's got me scratching my head, too. Sometimes they post up some pretty damned conservative stuff in a serious way (beyong the usual "tame" and "acceptable" conservative dissent). And sometimes they post up the usual liberal apologist crap that's straight off white house-apprved talking points. I dunno who's running that joint or what their leaning is. Maybe they're just so clueless they are throwing up a total crap-shoot of articles from all over the map.

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 23:38 | 3521215 Freddie

Yahoo fawns over O. The new CEO Is a major Lib. Yahoo has become total shit.

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 22:42 | 3521016 NoDebt

The Great Swirlogram has spoken! Tremble, all ye who gaze upon it. Get thee low and behold it's magnificence!

Seriously, I really do have a great deal of respect for the Swirlogram. It's by far my favorite chart posted regularly on ZH.

All the usual line-graph comparos leave you wondering "will the trend hold???" Not so with the Swirlogram. It has a marvelous certainty of expected circular completion implicit in it's representation. If you're a recovering economist, like myself, this one cuts through a lot of the "noise" and false correlations. It's simple and it works.

Won't tell you jack shit about where the market is headed (i.e. you'll go broke trading on it), but it tells you a lot about the economy.

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 23:55 | 3521245 Seer

I don't know about this thing, I guess I'm just stuck on the old fashioned "down and to the right" mode of seeing things... Down and to the left, in a circular affair, is just too confusing!

Thu, 05/02/2013 - 01:36 | 3521404 mkkby

No joke, but going to my favorite lunch spot and seeing how many customers they have has correlated very well to the current economy. Swirl all you want, but it all comes down to consumer confidence and restaurant sales are a good indicator.

Before Lehman went bankrupt, you couldn't get a table during peak hours. By late 2008, the place was empty. Now it's about 1/2 full. They tell me to sit where ever I want, and I choose a whole room to myself. Still a depression, but stable at a low level.

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 22:42 | 3521024 Bennie Noakes

Need to add a button you can click to play flushing noises.

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 23:56 | 3521249 Seer

Or the sound of a crashing prop-airplane, preceded by machine gun fire.

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 22:46 | 3521028 kito

and at the same time, the big three risks are coming back to life once again.......

dimon, blankfein and bernanke??????????????

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 22:49 | 3521056 NoDebt

War, famine and pestilence.

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 22:54 | 3521070 Yes_Questions

Goldman Confirms Global Slowdown Is Deepening without any blame at all.

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 23:33 | 3521197 disabledvet

Again I'm not an expert but "in what sense is a slowdown positive" Mr. Question...because...sorry if this makes you laugh but.."this slowdown seems to be a positive." (data alert! Data alert!) I have assumed with spreads getting absolutely crushed ("borrow short to lend long) that banks would be getting crushed....HOWEVER............

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 23:47 | 3521233 Yes_Questions

BUY-in

Rial banks don't get crushed

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 22:57 | 3521081 mayhem_korner

Is it typical for the swirl-o-gram to complete a revolution in just a year? Even with fake data?

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 22:59 | 3521092 Uncle Henry

Global Slowdown Confirms Goldman Is Deepening

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 23:02 | 3521102 spine001

Remember I have been talking over vand over about fractals bifurcations and chaos theory as the only way to track the behavior of the system. Well what here is called a swirlogram is in reality a phase diagram. That is how we track the stability of the system. You will see more and more of them. We use multidimensional ones where you look also at the 3rd and fourth derivatives.

Until next time,

Engineer

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 23:17 | 3521151 NoDebt

OK, obviously it's a phase diagram. That's pretty much what you get when you plot first and second deritvatives against eachother, so let's hear some details on what you learn additionally when you go into 3rd and 4th.

And who is "we"? I don't like when people post using the plural. It's creepy. Try "This is what I do. This is what I learned." instead.

Thu, 05/02/2013 - 08:38 | 3521768 spine001

Sorry, no creepeness or pun intended. We means all engineers and physicists who work in trying to understan, control, or attempt to characterize or predict the behavior, specially the transitional behavior when the system looses stability and tries to switch from one attractor to another one in non-linear dynamic hysterisis prone feedback loop control systems. This is used a lot to control complex chemical and biochemical industrial plants, in all kind of electronic systems and in bioengineering.

Until next time,

Engineer

Thu, 05/02/2013 - 00:09 | 3521281 Seer

That which cannot continue forever won't. (no fancy charts or complicated theories required)

Philosopher

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 23:04 | 3521112 RaceToTheBottom

Everyone should take a dump and put it in an very large envelope and then seal it up and send to to Goldman Craps

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 23:09 | 3521132 Dr. Engali

Good idea except for the fact that they own the government. The next thing you know is the black suits will be kicking in your door and arresting you as a terrorist mailing weapons of mass destruction.

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 23:44 | 3521158 RaceToTheBottom

"mailing weapons of mass destruction" Why? I never mentioned eating Tandoori chicken the night before....

An alternative is to put Goldman Craps address as the return address and stamp "Return to Sender" on it.

Thu, 05/02/2013 - 04:35 | 3521526 dognamedabu

Careful anthrax resides in shit. You don't wanna be that guy all over CNN be man hunted cause you thought it funny to send Goldman your crap. Although I get the temptation but just looking out for ya buddy.

Thu, 05/02/2013 - 08:16 | 3521724 RaceToTheBottom

Thanks, buddy. I will, and I think that we are all resigned to, wallow in our own shit.

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 23:06 | 3521119 CheapBastard

Go to the mall and you can 'confirm' it first hand yourself.

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 23:22 | 3521160 Yen Cross

BUT... BUT... 'Abby Douche Cohen' was on CNBS last week saying the ES had another 10% to go by year end, and the macro picture was looking better. WTF?

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 23:31 | 3521184 Rathmullan

But this global slowdown is all just due to the "sequester"....right?

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 23:31 | 3521190 All Out Of Bubblegum

"I don't want to show my hand too early, but actually here at Slater Nazi we are quite keen to get into orphans, you know, developing market and all that..."

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YUhb0XII93I

Thu, 05/02/2013 - 00:13 | 3521290 FoeHammer

"...and a full legal indemnity against any acts of embezzlement carried out against you by any members of our staff during the normal course of their duties."

lolol

Thu, 05/02/2013 - 00:18 | 3521303 TNTARG

No shit!

Aren't they smart?

Awesome!

Thu, 05/02/2013 - 01:05 | 3521369 Fuku Ben

That swirlogram look like when my toilet starts to flush

Thu, 05/02/2013 - 03:01 | 3521464 vulcanraven

You know when you take a shit and the log is so thick and long that it spins around with the water only to get stuck lengthwise across the hole at the bottom and it kinda hangs there for a second but eventually succumbs to gravitational force and snaps in half, getting swept away in the current.

Yeah, that's where we are at now, the moment right before the turd breaks in half.

Thu, 05/02/2013 - 06:08 | 3521566 SmallerGovNow2

LMAO...

Thu, 05/02/2013 - 06:24 | 3521577 overmedicatedun...

it's gonna be hell in the wrong zip codes...but in the right one's it's party on..palm springs monoco vail hamptons

Thu, 05/02/2013 - 03:35 | 3521486 Kirk2NCC1701

This is an update to an earlier one some weeks (2 months?) ago.

Where the observant people noticed that the cycle times are speeding up. And a couple of guys -- gee, I don't know who -- pointed out that it means that the system is destabilizing.

This data seems to confirm previous views.

Thu, 05/02/2013 - 08:01 | 3521677 orangegeek