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Just Two 'Recession' Indicators

Tyler Durden's picture





 

Monday's income and spending (and implicitly 'saving') data provided plenty of fodder at the headline level for any and every opinion. We explained in great detail just how weak the data really was (here and here). But the following two charts suggest that any optimism of organic consumption-led exuberance is completely misplaced. Retail sales of clothing is growing at the slowest pace since 2010; but while major store sales are about to drop negative YoY for the first time in over 3 years, the utter collapse in general merchandise sales is worse that at the peak of the last recession at -5%. It seems tough to see how a nation with an economy built on 70% consumption is not in a recessionary environment. And while this alone is a dismal signal for the discretionary upside of the US economy/consumer; as Gluskin Sheff's David Rosenberg points out real personal income net of transfer receipts plunged at a stunning 5.8% annual rate in Q1. The other seven times we have seen such a collapse, the economy was either in recession of just coming out of one. But apart from that, everything is fine...

 

Retail Sales collapsing...

 

and absent the might of the US deficit, real personal income is also collapsing...

 

Charts: Bloomberg and Gluskin Sheff

 


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Wed, 05/01/2013 - 12:16 | Link to Comment Stoploss
Stoploss's picture

Bonds concur.

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 12:31 | Link to Comment Ruffcut
Ruffcut's picture

I have my own recession real time indicator. BFMW 2/50

2 Cases of Beer in the fridge and 50 bucks in my wallet. Can't go beyond any other fundamentals because they just aren't real.

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 13:18 | Link to Comment BraveSirRobin
BraveSirRobin's picture

Let's see, the Ben Bernank has hand - a left hand and a right hand. Why does he not het a second computer and hold down the "ZERO" key on that one as well. He can double the money creation rate and save us all.

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 12:14 | Link to Comment I Am Not a Copp...
I Am Not a Copper Top's picture

Depression Bitchez!

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 12:41 | Link to Comment somecallmetimmah
somecallmetimmah's picture

Try not to think of it as a"depression".

It's more like a no-money-back guarantee for an unsolicited diet plan!

Feel better?

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 12:17 | Link to Comment uno
uno's picture

"the economy was either in recession of just coming out of one"

luckily we are in a depression, so no chance of that

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 12:22 | Link to Comment midtowng
midtowng's picture

That explains why the job market is so tight right now.

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 12:29 | Link to Comment camaro68ss
camaro68ss's picture

But but but, Obama saved and or created 2 million jobs.

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 12:32 | Link to Comment Political_Savage
Political_Savage's picture

Seriously - there must be SOME sort of positive news out there!?!

I love ZH and how it debunks the sell-side euphoria.

But I'm beginning to wonder if the one-sided argument isn't masking some data. Are we potentially blinding ourselves of anything?

I just gotta ask... there's got to be something that keeps the masses happy right now and out of revolt, besides good old ignorance.

What am I missing!?!? Why am I the only one in panic mode when I'm at a party and I see everyone laughing and having a good time, like they don't see what is coming.

Am I paranoid or something? Seriously!

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 12:37 | Link to Comment camaro68ss
camaro68ss's picture

Hey, your the crazy doomer at the block party too huh? I thought i was the only one. This is what QE does. Everything is fine until its not.

Enjoy life, your going to miss these days soon enough....

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 12:52 | Link to Comment Ruffcut
Ruffcut's picture

Seriously you must live a life of DUALITY .

The best news you can do will only come from you. YOu forget that parties usually have alcohol to ease the pain. Have a few and move on.

The only thing you can do is not play into these assholes fear mongering. Get comfortably numb and get a good dog.

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 12:57 | Link to Comment camaro68ss
camaro68ss's picture

I get comfortably numb daily now and its only getting me fat. hahaha.

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 12:37 | Link to Comment fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

I stopped getting invited to parties.

 

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 12:46 | Link to Comment Political_Savage
Political_Savage's picture

I seriously can't talk about the markets when I'm out anymore. A small conversation turns into a rant where I can't stop listing the other shoes to drop.

What really freaks me out is when I talk to other people in the industry and they look at my with glazed eyes, like they don't get it. One of the guys manages a huge pension fund's high-yield portfolio! I couldn't get him past "spreads."

A key expample was when Cyprus hit the tape initially. I was out for drinks that Sat night with friends and I mentioned it... nobody knew about it or cared.

I described the transfer mechanism from Cyprus, to Europe, to Russia, then the macro impact on basic bank accounts... crickets!

I just ordered a double and shut the fuck up.

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 12:49 | Link to Comment fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

just change the conversation to world events....

 

nevermind...

polotics?

nevermind.

do you have kids? My kid is smarter than your kid always eats up half the night by me.

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 12:54 | Link to Comment Political_Savage
Political_Savage's picture

First kid is on the way - 8 short weeks away.

Hope to drown myself in that and avoid the rest of it all.

New focus in life - protect daugher. Prepare all yee who feel the need to challenge... I won't stop and know no bounds

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 12:58 | Link to Comment schnydz
schnydz's picture

Yeah, had my first kid in '09. Also lost my job a month before. I had no interest what so ever in markets and politics until that dismal year. Fortunate/Unfortunate for me I've became more concern and more so now because of my kids and their future. 

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 14:15 | Link to Comment Jumbotron
Jumbotron's picture

"Yeah, had my first kid in '09. Also lost my job a month before. I had no interest what so ever in markets and politics until that dismal year. Fortunate/Unfortunate for me I've became more concern and more so now because of my kids and their future. "

 

Been there done that.  Lost a business, then lost the house I had (not even trying to flip...wanted to stay forever )...and ended up homeless with 5 kids for 7 months.  Back on my feet now...but took 2 hard years.

The Matrix has been revealed to me.....never going back.  But something about me is lost.....and am just trying to teach the kids a thing or two about the real world.  Don't won't them to get fooled like I did.  ZeroHedge actually helps with that.

Hang in there 'bro.....

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 13:03 | Link to Comment camaro68ss
camaro68ss's picture

I feel your pain man. the information we provide takes years for the average person to understand and process the eventual local and global effects.

I just dont talk about it anymore, not even with my prepper friends. We know the outcomes where as ready as we can be and we just wait for all the shoes to drop. until then, we live life the best we can.

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 13:08 | Link to Comment somecallmetimmah
somecallmetimmah's picture

Friendly advice: If you haven't done so already, buy a firearm & learn how to use it.

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 13:24 | Link to Comment Political_Savage
Political_Savage's picture

Sold out - strangley

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 12:49 | Link to Comment SMG
SMG's picture

Well you tried to help and warn people.  That's worth something.

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 13:35 | Link to Comment Cardiodoc
Cardiodoc's picture

I'm not in the industry and it's still all I can think about and struggle not to talk about...  There's a vague awareness shared by occasional random individuals but it's like I'm wearing a different pair of glasses which give me a view of the world that's radically different than the people around me.... I guess that's why I'm deep in the bowels of Zerohedge, parastalsing among the disparately disenfranchised: on the specturm from disgustingly bemused to quietly panicked; hopeless to hostile.  I think I need a 12 step program and a bowl of hopium.

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 14:40 | Link to Comment StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Hmm...They Live!

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 14:07 | Link to Comment northerngirl
northerngirl's picture

I don't even try to have conversations with those that see the world through, "Rose", colored glasses.  That includes many of my welfare dependent relatives.  I have lost many friends, but at the same time I have made many new ones.  The great thing about that is my new friends are true friends we do not agree 100% on everything, but when it comes to the important issues in life we understand each other.  That is all that matters.

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 14:57 | Link to Comment Go Tribe
Go Tribe's picture

Sell those glazed over sheeple a bridge or two.

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 12:52 | Link to Comment McMolotov
McMolotov's picture

The TeeVee tells everyone that everything's fine. I think it really is that simple.

I remember learning back in junior high about the different kinds of advertising. One of them was the "bandwagon technique." If a person is told the masses are doing something, he or she will have to fight instinct not to join in with the herd. Unfortunately, it's human nature to conform, and no one wants to be the odd one out. The message is "If you can't feel that everything's ok, there must be something wrong with you."

Those who fight the instinct to conform really are the weirdos because they deviate from the norm. But being different doesn't mean being wrong.

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 13:58 | Link to Comment noless
noless's picture

although herd mentality is instinctual, so is the drive to not be. the ones who can successfully live life without following the herd are called leaders. it's more difficult to determine direction without anyone obstructing your vision of whats ahead, but again, herd mentality, most will just follow whoever steps up front, as long as everyone else is.

it's the same reason why women are attracted to "rebels", whether or not they are actually rebelling against anything at all.

 

i've posted this before: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LU8DDYz68kM

 

seriously though, look at how wolves, wild dogs, chimps, gorillas, bonobos, elephants, cows, etc et al, structure their societies; any herd , tribe, or pack animal, bonus points for primates and omnivores, we are not all that different, we just got lucky with the thumbs and posture.

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 12:54 | Link to Comment schnydz
schnydz's picture

Well, you could've taken the blue pill. Ignorance is bliss ay?

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 12:54 | Link to Comment Political_Savage
Political_Savage's picture

True

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 13:23 | Link to Comment oklaboy
oklaboy's picture

Savage: I know were you are coming from. When I ask my cadre, one year ago I was a doomer. Abot half of them have awoken, the other half are oblivious, and have no clue. 90% of the general population just wants there free stuff, cell phones, and when is the next pro player who is gay to come out. Let me guess, there are lesbians in the LPGA????  OMG noooooooo 

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 13:48 | Link to Comment Mrmojorisin515
Mrmojorisin515's picture

@politicalSavage

Because you've only been reading for 17 weeks, it takes at least two years just to come to terms with this shit.  I reacted the same way as you back in 2008, now i've learned to love the bomb ;)

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 15:35 | Link to Comment chunkylover42
chunkylover42's picture

I have the same experience as you.  My hope is that people have come to focus on the really important things in their life - family, friends, good health, etc.

Then I come to my senses and realize they are just delusional from all the hookers and blow of the last 4 years.

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 12:43 | Link to Comment somecallmetimmah
somecallmetimmah's picture

"But but but, Obama saved and or created 2 million jobs."

He DID.  Not 'here', but....

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 12:51 | Link to Comment Tombstone
Tombstone's picture

He sure did; in China, Mexico and Cuba.

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 13:19 | Link to Comment BraveSirRobin
BraveSirRobin's picture

I thought we were in a drepression going into a recession.

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 13:39 | Link to Comment Meatier Shower
Meatier Shower's picture

Obviously we are just coming out of a recession. Durr...

</sarc>

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 12:17 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Retail consumer sheeple are dead? Uh-oh....well at least we've got a homo in the NBA.

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 12:35 | Link to Comment camaro68ss
camaro68ss's picture

Im so scared for this country right now. The media focuses on a 3rd string NBA man coming out of the closet as the world burns in QE *

Little 15 year old girls can now NUKE there Uterus with the morning after pill at will with out a doctor to supervise, that shit can fuck you up, what is this world coming too?

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 12:47 | Link to Comment Zer0head
Zer0head's picture

not to worry even after all these centuries remnants of Babylon still survive

or take a trip to Rome and you can see the vesitiges of another great civilization

the permanence that so many take for granted is just an illusion and one day in the not so distant future when you (we) are dust perhaps there will be someone or something musing about some place they called america

 

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 12:56 | Link to Comment Ness.
Ness.'s picture

17 people shot and 3 dead in less than 12 hours in Chicago yesterday... on a Tuesday night.  WTF?  

At least three people were killed and 17 wounded in shootings across Chicago overnight as the city saw its warmest weather in seven months. In one of the fatal shootings, three men were shot in a parking lot across the street from the headquarters of the UIC Police Department, police said. 

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 13:00 | Link to Comment somecallmetimmah
somecallmetimmah's picture

Yeah, you know what we call that in Chicago?

"Tuesday"

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 13:18 | Link to Comment BraveSirRobin
BraveSirRobin's picture

At least they have strict gun control in Chicago. Think what would happen if they let peoplehave guns!

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 12:15 | Link to Comment Smuckers
Smuckers's picture

All this means buy AAPL.....right?

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 12:18 | Link to Comment Longtermnotreally
Longtermnotreally's picture

We might as well just ignore all economic data, has no impact whatsoever on the markets, living the lie

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 12:15 | Link to Comment UK debt marsh
UK debt marsh's picture

Yes, but if you turn those charts upside down, all is well.

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 13:46 | Link to Comment NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

True enough.  And if the Queen had balls she'd be the King.  So, it's all good.

Love the screen name, by the way.  Do you have an evil twin named "UK Death March"?

You would know if you ever saw him because he would look just like you but have a gotee.  Now, if YOU have a gotee then guess what that makes you?  Yes.  That.

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 12:17 | Link to Comment Cdad
Cdad's picture

Four years and trillions of wasted dollars...and our great RECOVERY is still somewhere off the right side of the charts.  

Thank you, Ben Bernanke, for this wasteland you have made for us.

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 12:30 | Link to Comment kahunabear
kahunabear's picture

The arrogance of the Fed is what shocks me the most. You have the two biggest bond managers, Bill Gross and Jeffrey Gundlach saying QE is a mistake, yet the academicians at the Fed don't even acknowledge them and proceed on with the great Keynesian experiment. It is not just a wacko tinfolier thing.

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 12:47 | Link to Comment Law97
Law97's picture

Ah, but the top 1% are trillions of dollars wealthier.  Mission Being Accomplished.

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 12:17 | Link to Comment LostPolarBear
LostPolarBear's picture

Bullish!

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 12:20 | Link to Comment Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Move along. This is not the recession you're looking for.

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 14:47 | Link to Comment RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

Sorry to see Bill Buckler abandon ship.  At least I have ZH to help keep the canoe stocked with PMs.  Damn thing keeps tipping over and I lose so much that way....

Cheers!

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 12:18 | Link to Comment rubearish10
rubearish10's picture

Still doesn't matter does it?

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 12:18 | Link to Comment jim249
jim249's picture

Bullish for AMZN.

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 12:37 | Link to Comment gamera9
gamera9's picture

It's JC Penny's fault they ruined it for everyone.

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 12:19 | Link to Comment Smegley Wanxalot
Smegley Wanxalot's picture

Who needs personal income growth when ya gotz da EBT baaaeebeee!

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 12:22 | Link to Comment Doubleguns
Doubleguns's picture

Summer cloths buying, once its over cloths sales with catch "up", so to speak, with gen merchandise. 

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 12:23 | Link to Comment firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

QE^2 will be the Fed purchasing crap at Wal-Mart

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 12:22 | Link to Comment fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

My wife dragged me into old navy last week. She took me to the clearance section and told me to get some shirts. I walked over and found 4-5 shirts that I have no problem being seen in for like $2 each.

People were all over the racks. The rest of the store...nothing doing.

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 12:26 | Link to Comment buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

I noticed the smart clothing retailers know there is a depression on and are selling at cost to get the most $ they can. The others aren't selling squat.

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 12:36 | Link to Comment Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Mrs. Cog and I have noticed over the last few months that various stores across the spectrum are not restocking as quickly. Lots of bare and semi bare shelf sections. A classic sign of squeezing out that last drop of profit before the plunge. 

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 12:55 | Link to Comment seek
seek's picture

It's pretty well documented that Walmart is doing this in particular, thanks to the February memo and subsequent exit of the writer of said memo.

I see the same, even in my grocery store now, and I'm in one of the higher income zip codes in my state. I don't think it speaks to the particular store so much as the suppliers sending out fewer stockers less regularly. The most predictable gaps seem to be higher end boutique foods, like pita bread and specialty drinks.

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 14:49 | Link to Comment RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

I keep a shopping list handy for an emergency run to Sam's -- if/when the time comes.  Along with a nice sized batch of $20 bills for payment.   The list has items on it that will be needed when the shelves start getting bare.  Or, stuff I can use for barter that have long shelf-lives.  Ya just never know....

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 14:52 | Link to Comment Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

This really all ties into NeoLiberalism and NAFTA/GATT.  This was a great article on how the "race to the bottom", while refereed by the owners of capital, are really run by the consumers:

Even small price increases in the name of better worker safety would be enough to turn away some shoppers, including American exchange student Shannon Atwell. The 21-year-old spent $18.50 on a dress, sunglasses and handbag at Primark last week. “I didn’t buy a ($20) dress because I thought it was too much,” she said. “If prices went up I wouldn’t buy from here.”

http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/shoppers-want-bargains-bu...

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 12:25 | Link to Comment buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

long goodwill and soup kitchens [/not advice]

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 12:36 | Link to Comment ParkAveFlasher
ParkAveFlasher's picture

I'm seeing Goodwill's suppliers starting to keep their inventory to themselves, I'd go short there.

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 12:50 | Link to Comment Zer0head
Zer0head's picture

with due respect Goodwill ain't the bargain shop most think it is, in fact the shit in their stores is in many cases way overpriced - I used to drop stuff off all the time but when I discovered just how much they are reselling it for I said screw that and now just post a curb alert on Craigs list -- (I also check Craig for curb alerts as well  - people put some good shit out on the side of the road)

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 13:17 | Link to Comment ParkAveFlasher
ParkAveFlasher's picture

My contrary call stands then.  Hey, this is easy.  Is this day trading?  /s

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 13:17 | Link to Comment schnydz
schnydz's picture

heh, inflation.

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 12:23 | Link to Comment 1C3-N1N3
1C3-N1N3's picture

Consumers are buying "services" now. Goods were so last decade.

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 14:57 | Link to Comment Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

It's so true - even happening in video games.

http://t.co/ovaLX5gBHz

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 12:28 | Link to Comment IridiumRebel
IridiumRebel's picture

So when does the Dow turn green? 3PM? God knows this is bad for gold and silver because they are so tied to retail and income. Let's just ramp up QE to 150 bil a month. That should lead to more Asian manufactured clothing sold to "We the Plebes".

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 12:28 | Link to Comment fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

I sure hope we get some vault update or something today. Gold down $30 before Ben blows more QE out his ass. I'd love to see what's going on in the phyz market.

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 12:33 | Link to Comment IridiumRebel
IridiumRebel's picture

i bought the dip.

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 12:30 | Link to Comment jtz5
jtz5's picture

This market is going to shit itself after 2pm Fed folly...

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 12:35 | Link to Comment fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Well you know Ben has the jobs report. If I had to put in an early guess....the fed today sounds strangely hawkish...anf tomorrow the number is a surprise blowout. MSM runs around all day screaming that he is a genius for being hawkish and the jobs number backs him up....not like he had the fucking report beforehand or something...

Then we go back to the ending of QE talk.

Unless it's worse than we even know and Bernank mentions doubling down...Then stocks rally and gold stays down as the vaults are emptied at an even faster clip.

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 13:34 | Link to Comment Ham-bone
Ham-bone's picture

action in copper recently and today says Ben's about to do something un-Ben like...take some air out of the balloon?  Russell looks pissed...1% 10yr coming up?

Curious if PM's have signalled this ahead of time..and could be flat on the "news" and start rising now for the next round of pumping as Ben sez the opposite?

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 12:28 | Link to Comment NEOSERF
NEOSERF's picture

Really is amazing to think where this economy would be if the Fed wasn't continuing to dump free money into the banks and buying up all our own debt (how is this even legal?).  With every country in the world desperate to have someone buy their bonds to fund their malinvestment, how do any Central Banks ever walk away from QE...can't happen.

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 13:11 | Link to Comment bnbdnb
bnbdnb's picture

Printing 6% of GDP, for 1% growth = winning.

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 12:32 | Link to Comment The Dancer
The Dancer's picture

In my world you'd be a big time spender...I was in Sandpoint this past summer and went to a yard sale...if ya wait till the end the people often are desperate to get rid of their stuff...the sweet lady handed me a big paper bag and said to fill it up for a dollar...and I did...you wouldn't believe what I got for the sum of $1US...practically new Nike sandals, shirts, pants,shorts...made me feel like Jesse James for a few minutes...

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 12:32 | Link to Comment autofixer
autofixer's picture

Have TPTB squeezed the last drops out of this system and it is now okay to let it collapse? 

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 12:33 | Link to Comment rosiescenario
rosiescenario's picture

My take from viewing these 2 charts: the consumer has run out of credit, which quite surprisingly means that reduced income actually results in lower purchases. Not to worry, the central planners will fix that....we have student loans, home loans, why can't the government get into a new area of loans? For example, if you earn less than $50k per year and are already in debt up to your eye balls, we're here to help....you now qualify for a Federally guaranteed loan of $100k provided the money is spent rapidly on things sold at Walmart.

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 12:33 | Link to Comment gamera9
gamera9's picture

Recession is such an ugly tern perhaps, prosperity reduction would work. You can thank me later AP.

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 12:54 | Link to Comment nantucket
nantucket's picture

how about "Forward: Back To Prosperity, Comrades"

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 12:33 | Link to Comment HD
HD's picture

But...but POMO is going to fix it.  We only need to believe moar harder.

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 12:32 | Link to Comment sbenard
sbenard's picture

I"m convinced the increase in spending on services was due to Americans having to pay for tax prep "services" to keep the IRS wolves at bay. :(

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 12:35 | Link to Comment The Dancer
The Dancer's picture

i just had a thought...what if they decided to let reality set in before BarakaDoc exits stage right so as to give the next so-called President have some leeway in approaching the problems we face...

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 12:38 | Link to Comment fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Nah

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 12:39 | Link to Comment JayKitsap
JayKitsap's picture

Tyler-

Where is your optimism - we are told that Recovery Summer IV is a Blockbuster and will do as well as the Chain with that name.  Everything is just fine and really rolling because they are rolling and smoking a lot of Hopium.

The Fed is buying Bank debt by the boatload but only big banks.  The local and regional banks are shut out and can only lend to those that do not need money.  But people are buying houses and building houses so my business is better, but I cannot understand why anyone would today.

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 12:41 | Link to Comment Ponzi Pontiff
Ponzi Pontiff's picture

Aren't recessions bullish though?

BTW, wtf is up with gold and silver?  I can almost set my watch by the smackdown they get at LON close / NY open.  That doesnt mean I understand it though - can anybody enlighten me and hopefully I'll learn something?

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 12:42 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

    If it weren't for EBT and SNAP, we would have been living in smoldering piles of rubble, a long time ago!

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 13:29 | Link to Comment Herd Redirectio...
Herd Redirection Committee's picture

EBT, SNAP and Monday Night Football/ DWTS / "Reality TV'

Bread and circuses

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 12:52 | Link to Comment nantucket
nantucket's picture

it's impossible to predict when it will collapse.  could be month to years away.  i can't choose when i'll die, but i'll damn sure choose the hill upon which to die.

 

actually, i have no idea what that all means, but i heard it from a really smart guy.

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 12:57 | Link to Comment Tombstone
Tombstone's picture

Benny now must decide how much more QE to plug into the system.  He needs to cover the following: recession, welfare, Europe, Japan, too big to fail banks, housing, Social Security, Medicare, O'bummer phones, food stamps, Obummercare, Volt car loans, green energyless energy loans, and the coming China real-estate blow up.  QE needs to be ramped up to $300 billion/month.

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 13:05 | Link to Comment The Dancer
The Dancer's picture

Thses problems will not go away for a very long time...if ever in our lifetime...jmho

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 13:07 | Link to Comment andyupnorth
andyupnorth's picture

Demographics Bitchez!

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 13:19 | Link to Comment BullyBearish
BullyBearish's picture

Remember the HOPE thingy...How Our Prosperity Ends

 

I'm so glad IBD yesterday went to: UPTREND RESUMES!!

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 13:28 | Link to Comment projanitor
projanitor's picture

Waiting for THE bull market:
http://traumprojekt.org/content/labyrinth

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 13:35 | Link to Comment WTF_247
WTF_247's picture

Yet another indicator and RTH and other retailers continue soaring higher.  If spending is declining the opposite should be occurring.  But in the new normal, any and all news is good.  All you need is a release for the sector or a major player.  The algos net buy anything.  I am not even sure why they bother having an article or commentary or numbers.  Just put a symbol or sector with any headline. The rest does not matter.  Algos just need a focus for buying.

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 13:37 | Link to Comment ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

The second bubble Bernanke has blown with our tax dollars and our progeny's future debt (pain and suffering for the sake of the banksters) is clear to see - unless you are a blind delusional Krugmanite.

Wed, 05/01/2013 - 14:44 | Link to Comment Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

"But PMI is over 50!!11111" - NeoKeynesians(and some statist Austrians).

Lak over at ECRI has pointed to this for a few months now.  Too bad the government doesn't use these "indicators" for recessions.

Sir James Goldsmith called all of this back in 1994, BTW:

http://t.co/KYJs8KkWVf

 

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