This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.

Initial Claims Lowest Since Jan 2008 Levels; Import Plunge Leads To Much Lower Trade Deficit

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Mission Accomplished it would seem. Initial claims printed at its lowest since January 2008 at 324k. This is well below expectations of 345k - the biggest beat since September 2011. California and New York dominated the data with over 70,000 claims between them (though both dropped from last week). Michigan added the most from last month's rolls with 'educational service indurtsy' job losses affecting MA, CT, and RI. Emergency Unemployment Claims appears to have shaken off its statistical aberration of 2013 and is down a modest 12k this week.

 

Elsewhere, in trade news that total March exports of $184.3 billion and imports of $223.1 billion resulted in a goods and services deficit of $38.8 billion, down from $43.6 billion in February, revised, and far below the expected number of $42.3 billion. This was driven, however, not by a jump in exports or economic strength, which declined by $1.7 billion in February, but due to a plunge in imports of $6.5 billion, typically confirming economic weakness, mostly of consumer and capital goods as the US economy slowed substantially in March.

Visually:

Specifically:

In March, the goods deficit decreased $4.6 billion from February to $56.1 billion, and the services surplus increased $0.2 billion from February to $17.3 billion. Exports of goods  decreased $1.8 billion to $130.3 billion, and imports of goods decreased $6.4 billion to $186.5 billion. Exports of services increased $0.1 billion to $53.9 billion, and imports of services decreased $0.1 billion to $36.6 billion.

Unlike before, the import crash was not driven by a reduction in crude.

The February to March decrease in imports of goods reflected decreases in consumer goods ($3.4 billion); capital goods ($1.5 billion); industrial supplies and materials ($1.4 billion); and automotive vehicles, parts, and engines ($0.8 billion). An increase occurred in other goods ($0.9 billion). Foods, feeds, and beverages were virtually unchanged.

 

The February to March decrease in exports of goods reflected decreases in foods, feeds, and beverages ($1.1 billion); automotive vehicles, parts, and engines ($0.3 billion); industrial supplies and materials ($0.3 billion); capital goods ($0.3 billion); and consumer goods ($0.3 billion). An increase occurred in other goods ($0.2 billion).

Broken down by geographic sector, the biggest collapse from February in imports occured with China, where the deficit plunged from $23.4 billion to $17.9 billion. We don't even dare to match this number with what China reports its exports to the US were. We are confident it will be a ridiculous comp. Net imports from the EU rose modestly from $8.8 billion to $9.9 billion.

Finally, looking at the effectiveness of Abenomics, and the net Japanese trade deficit, imports from Japan rose from $5.9 billion to $6.6 billion. So much for that export renaissance, at least as far as exports to the US are concerned.

 

- advertisements -

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Thu, 05/02/2013 - 08:44 | 3521784 Dollar Bill Hiccup
Dollar Bill Hiccup's picture

I've hired myself.

Thu, 05/02/2013 - 08:48 | 3521798 freewolf7
freewolf7's picture

Me, too, and my boss is a jerk.

Thu, 05/02/2013 - 09:23 | 3521919 WayBehind
WayBehind's picture

I fired myself ...

Thu, 05/02/2013 - 09:28 | 3521942 Smegley Wanxalot
Smegley Wanxalot's picture

I gave myself a shitty review and 3 warnings so that I can't file a legal claim when I fire myself later this year.

 

If I lay myself off, can I collect unemployment?

Thu, 05/02/2013 - 10:18 | 3522195 MachoMan
MachoMan's picture

Yep, if you pay unemployment insurance for your business...  but most single shareholder/member entities don't go through the effort on themselves (we can debate whether it's required, but that's irrelevant). 

Thu, 05/02/2013 - 09:35 | 3521973 FL_Conservative
FL_Conservative's picture

I beat both of you.  I hired myself twice as a part-time employee so I could goose the results and not have to be penalized by Obamacare.

Thu, 05/02/2013 - 09:50 | 3522052 Scro
Scro's picture

I'm a shamed to admit this but sometimes I have to jerk my boss off. I'm a dirty little whore.

Thu, 05/02/2013 - 08:58 | 3521826 azzhatter
azzhatter's picture

Forward

Thu, 05/02/2013 - 16:48 | 3523951 Bunga Bunga
Bunga Bunga's picture

Or kill yourself.

Suicide Rates Rise Sharply in U.S.

www.nytimes.com/2013/05/03/health/suicide-rate-rises-sharply-in-us.html

Thu, 05/02/2013 - 08:45 | 3521788 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Soon when everyone's died off, then all the numbers will look REALLY good!

Thu, 05/02/2013 - 12:53 | 3522930 natronic
natronic's picture

They are working on it now.  The only reason the number was lowest in years was because businesses are running out of people to fire and still be functional.

Thu, 05/02/2013 - 08:46 | 3521790 LetThemEatRand
LetThemEatRand's picture

If there were zero employment, there would be zero new unemployment claims.  Pretty sneaky, Bernanke.

Thu, 05/02/2013 - 08:59 | 3521830 midtowng
midtowng's picture

Businesses have cut all the fat and most of the muscle too. There's not much left but bone, so they are giving out fewer pink slips.

But that doesn't mean they are about to start hiring.

Thu, 05/02/2013 - 10:31 | 3522282 Gavrikon
Gavrikon's picture

Well, you can't fire them all . . . .

Thu, 05/02/2013 - 11:22 | 3522544 Totentänzerlied
Totentänzerlied's picture

When they've fired 3/4 of managers and 4/5 of the officers you can say "cut all the fat", not before. But we know those aren't the people who get cut.

Thu, 05/02/2013 - 11:18 | 3522523 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

The jobs in the new normal are part time.

An hours cut in part time work, from 30 to 15, is not a layoff.  No claim can be filed.

Thu, 05/02/2013 - 08:46 | 3521793 Silverhog
Silverhog's picture

So I won't be dead when the the recovery arrives, just in a nursing home.

Thu, 05/02/2013 - 09:30 | 3521955 pods
pods's picture

By the time I get there the nursing home will be nothing more than a doorway leading to a sausage grinder.

Reminds me of the old saying "Oh, we took him to a nice family in the country so he can run around."

Just replace dog with Grandpa.

pods

Thu, 05/02/2013 - 08:47 | 3521794 Cursive
Cursive's picture

Less jobs, ergo less people in the workforce, and nobody has adjusted the expectations to include a smaller workforce?  Reinhart and Rogoff have nothing on these "analysts."

Thu, 05/02/2013 - 08:49 | 3521800 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

They spent the 90's shipping all our industry and jobs overseas to borrow money from Japan, and now the same people are scratching their heads wondering where's the jobs growth? Unless you're doing some landscaping work or delivering things or picking thru trash, just not much in the way of actual real jobs out there.

Thu, 05/02/2013 - 09:42 | 3522017 Bobbyrib
Bobbyrib's picture

They're acting like they don't have a clue where the jobs went. They know perfectly well where they sent those jobs.

Thu, 05/02/2013 - 08:48 | 3521797 ekm
ekm's picture

Data shows higher or lower acceleration of the deterioration, however deterioration keeps accelerating at different speeds.

Thu, 05/02/2013 - 09:12 | 3521869 ekm
ekm's picture

Only one thing in mind:

Iran, Syria

 

Nothing else explains this madness.

Thu, 05/02/2013 - 11:11 | 3522493 earleflorida
earleflorida's picture

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/World/WOR-01-020513.html

"The Syrian-Iran red line show"  by Pepe Escobar  [May.2,2013]     http://www.atimes.com/

Thu, 05/02/2013 - 14:23 | 3523283 Hohum
Hohum's picture

Or maybe the high inventory won't last because of dropping rig counts.  Or maybe it's random noise.

Nah, wouldn't fit with ekm's ideology.

Here's a link for the faction that implies that oil prices better not fall much if production wants to keep rising.

http://www.resilience.org/stories/2013-04-30/commentary-interview-with-steve-kopits

I look forward to ekm's link.

Thu, 05/02/2013 - 08:51 | 3521805 knukles
knukles's picture

Educational service industry?
Sounds like the flabby armed lady serving the over boiled Moochterian veggie-lunch to the mindless rabble at the Indoctrination center of Higher Sophistry.
This PC crap is a primary reason for society's failure to communicate

Oh, you lost?
Dead fucking last?
Here's a trophy, you little looser, and don't forget it, dumbshit...
And no dinner either.
Eat your trophy ya little incompetent
Your father will beat the shit out of you
Even your quadriplegic nephews gonna laugh

Rub their nose in last place.
Does wonder for the self esteem

Thu, 05/02/2013 - 09:02 | 3521838 freewolf7
freewolf7's picture

A little Denis Leary to brace yourself for the day:

Dr. Shut the F*ck Up

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oAVoQfoU0dQ

Thu, 05/02/2013 - 08:57 | 3521824 khotel
khotel's picture

At some point, you have to reach "fighting weight" if indeed you intend to stay in the fight.  I would think at this point that a substantial portion of businesses have reached "fighting weight", so there's not a great deal of fat to shed.  That's conjecture, not a proven fact. 

As time moves on, I believe jobless numbers become less relevant.

Thu, 05/02/2013 - 09:06 | 3521847 freewolf7
freewolf7's picture

And given Libor, and precious metal manipulation, and Matt Tabbi's articles, how much can I believe these "numbers"?

Thu, 05/02/2013 - 09:07 | 3521851 docj
docj's picture

Sure - eventually a business runs out of people they can lay-off and still stay in business.

So this is... bullish?

Thu, 05/02/2013 - 09:27 | 3521933 pods
pods's picture

Doc, EVERYTHING is bullish, even depressions.

pods

Thu, 05/02/2013 - 10:22 | 3522222 MachoMan
MachoMan's picture

Exactly.  The driving factor here is margin compression...  layoffs are simply a derivative/necessary conclusion to margin compression.  At some point, businesses are going to get sick of making losses up on volume.

The only question is whether those businesses who can weather the storm are going to reap any rewards...

Thu, 05/02/2013 - 09:36 | 3521983 yrbmegr
yrbmegr's picture

Most people believe the numbers reported by the government don't relate to what's going on any more.

Thu, 05/02/2013 - 08:58 | 3521827 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

It seems like Bruce Krasting finally realized it's QE4eva and is in the same boat with the rest of us with nothing else to really say anymore.

Thu, 05/02/2013 - 08:59 | 3521831 Village Smithy
Village Smithy's picture

Next week's initial claims will include a record breaking upward revision to this week. With all the bad macro news lately Bernanke was getting nervous that Kevin would end up the only buyer left some afternoon and he had to pull some magic out of his hat.

Thu, 05/02/2013 - 09:09 | 3521855 Rayfp65
Rayfp65's picture

We're running out of people who are eligible to claim. If you've exhausted your benefits and do not work for at least 6 months (full time), you cannot claim unemployment.

Thu, 05/02/2013 - 09:37 | 3521914 OldE_Ant
OldE_Ant's picture

lol I was thinking same thing.   Greatest gift to the unemployment rate is for people to just 'drop out' and get on social security disability.  

The new 'American dream'.

Because no-one needs to work ever again!!  Claims to zero and employed to zero and jobless rate to zero.

YOU CAN DO IT!

The FED has signalled Sugar Daddy QE will last forever and ever, because freshly printed money is BETTER than that old stuff made with hard work!

Coming next the 'pirate economy'.  Where thugs with guns riding boats called 'police security' riding on the roads take over rich homes looting gold silver and hot wives and daughters for the up and coming new slave trade.

Thu, 05/02/2013 - 10:04 | 3522122 yrbmegr
yrbmegr's picture

I wonder how many homes owned by banks are occupied by squatters right now.

Thu, 05/02/2013 - 09:11 | 3521862 kito
kito's picture

Tyler seems defeated this morning....Shirley there must be some holes to punch in this report.......

Thu, 05/02/2013 - 09:16 | 3521881 freewolf7
freewolf7's picture

We have enough information. Time to get off the computer and gather in the streets. I love ZH, but as long as we are divided on our separate screens, we are not united, standing in front of our banks.

Divide and conquer.

Thu, 05/02/2013 - 11:37 | 3522599 FLHRS
FLHRS's picture

Initial claims are only a portion of the equation.  Take into consideration the number of working age people that have left the workforce since to 2008, increase in part time employment, the number of people on disability, the increase in federal employees and the shift away from manufacturing and other productive employment,

Thu, 05/02/2013 - 09:13 | 3521875 MFLTucson
MFLTucson's picture

The PMI hits an all time low, the trade deficit hits a low (no one is buying anything) and claims hit a low?  hmmm, think this is bullshit?  I do!

Thu, 05/02/2013 - 09:20 | 3521904 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Bullshit, bullshit, bullshit.

I'm off that list because unemployment ran out and I can't "re-claim" it to keep the statistic real.

Thu, 05/02/2013 - 09:42 | 3522016 Village Smithy
Village Smithy's picture

I'm sorry to hear that, I hope you find something soon. Your story is exactly why these stats are just crap.  

Thu, 05/02/2013 - 09:29 | 3521948 BurningFuld
BurningFuld's picture

AND Canada is back on top as Number One Importer to the USA! Also the Number One export market for the USA.

Thu, 05/02/2013 - 09:38 | 3521997 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

I'd bet that the labor participation rate declining corresponds with this claims chart.

I'd also bet that food stamp and SS disability and welfare participation charts are inversely related with this claims chart.

Thu, 05/02/2013 - 11:14 | 3522502 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

Simpler answer than that.  New jobs are part time. 

A cut in hours is not a layoff.  Can't apply for UE.

Thu, 05/02/2013 - 09:47 | 3522043 q99x2
q99x2's picture

Good news. No one has to work and no one has to get laid off and no one needs to make more junk and nobody needs to buy anything neither. No one needs gasoline because no one has to go anywhere and as long as I've got my student loans and my books and classmates that chat on my phone and send me electronic things I don't have to do anything ever again. Me thinks I'm an amoeba swimming around in a bowl of warm jelly..

Thu, 05/02/2013 - 10:12 | 3522170 Hohum
Hohum's picture

Don't get too excited or too down.  YoY unadjusted down about 35K--not that much off trend.

Thu, 05/02/2013 - 10:20 | 3522213 Edward Fiatski
Edward Fiatski's picture

Thank you, Ben.

Thu, 05/02/2013 - 10:26 | 3522248 yrbmegr
yrbmegr's picture

Crude oil imports appear to be running 15% below last year.

Thu, 05/02/2013 - 10:32 | 3522284 Curt W
Curt W's picture

325,000 claims a week for 5 years adds up to over 83 million.

Eventually they will run out of people to lay off.

Thu, 05/02/2013 - 18:36 | 3524319 RopeADope
RopeADope's picture

Old fart UI is called Social Security so of course the claims numbers these days is worthless data with the change in demographics.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!