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It's A POMO Day
Presented with no comment...
Treasuries are hitting new 5 month low yields... as stocks push to all-time highs
The disconnects are growing... (not European close and end of POMO are coincident)
Charts: Bloomberg
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When will it be a "string Bernanke up by his balls" day ?
OT (maybe):
balienable?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XU_q77z0PcQ&t=2120s
what word is he saying?
is this europe money moving this market?
Sell-off into the close?
Fuckin great...Fed POMO days just means cnbc POM POM days except its now the sagging POM POMs of Maria, Becky, Sue and MCC.
There is no POMO tomorrow. Get your puts ready:
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2013/04/POMO%20May.jpg
Holy Christ! POMO's almost EVERYDAY!!!??? Hahahahaha...
No, I believe that would be called 'terrorism" and would make anyone selling eligible for Drone justice.
Re: "is this europe money moving this market?"
Most likely it is secondary to WH leaking NFP report to a few selected cronies, again (e.g. WH => Summers => DE Shaw).
"Bail - in" just like Cyprus and soon the rest including US as well.
If the FED were to actually ever reach their inflation target, it would require a rate hike, which would instantaneously result in the in-ability of the said fuck-ups to pay the interest on the debt that has been accrued over the last five years, thereby resulting in a US default on it's debt.
" ABOUT FIFTEEN MINUTES"
Is all it takes..
WTI 2-say smiley face. Woot woot. WTI $150 PT for summer 2013. Something like 2008. Supply build-up does not matter: only squiddy paper games.
1.5B pomo on a 19 trillion market cap "market". like pissing into a hurricane is what causes the flooding.
A market with no liquidity. Price is always on the margin.
Elegance!!!!
Yeah, but don't forget that when this thing goes down - one day - they will be selling gold futures contracts and the price of paper gold will go to it's intrinsic value. Meanwhile premiums for the acutal metal will experience an exponential rise.
Don't forget that POMO money is leveraged about 100X.
im starting to think you guys are mad at me for taking your money when i shorted gold at 1680 and silver at 28.90. just look at the charts....it was easy. thanks!
Actually, nobody gives a flying fuck.
You didn't take any of my money. I only own physical....in a safe....in my house...stacked next to guns and ammo. Just sayin...
Another genius in hindsight. Pray, tell, where can we monitor your ongoing trades to verify your glorious brilliance?
Should every idiot who won $50 on a scratch ticket be consulted for the next lotto numbers? There's anecdotes, then there's data sets.
Do you think the entire market cap is traded in each tick up or down?
utterly clueless -1
Judging by the arrows, the ZH market has spoken and you are indeed a moron.
'Price' is irrelevant when youre dealing with fantasy currency which at any moment can go to 'worthless'....sell risk assets-sleep well.
Ya that $3 Trillion Dollar Balance sheet rehypothicated in London....doesn't make one difference. Right?
The hilarity continues. It all works perfectly until it doesn't. But by then the boat is loaded up with Muppets and the Masters are all at the Hamptons.
Wash, rinse and repeat.
When that boat load of muppets is out to sea they will shut off the engines. The triumph was just a test along with several other tests recently.
Shut off the engines and open the scuttle valves.
Torpedo them with interest rates. They won't see them coming but I think I hear the whirring of their rotors right now if I strain.
Better keep your eyes peeled, Admiral Kimmel.
The urgent telegram you were expecting from Washington is sitting on a bureaucrat's desk, collecting dust.
Kimmel was relieved of his command ten days after the attack. Kimmel, in testifying for numerous hearings, defended his decisions by saying important information had never been made available to him.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Husband_E._Kimmel
Was he married to Wife E. Kimmel?
Pogo days always go up. Hmmm seems I misspelled that.
come on tyler, the market is up today because of our great fundementals.
did u not see the jobless claim number today, it was lowest since jan 2008. things must be great (sarc)
the best thing about it being the lowest since jan 08 is that was a few months away from the collapse, so hopefully it is not too far away,
they should not even announce fundementals anymore in this market, it should just open at 930 and close at 4 like always, because fundementals mean nothing anymore.
I thought I heard helicopters this morning
Fundamentals only matter when the herd decides fundamentals matter.
The herd is always right.......even when it's wrong.
Dollar, gold, S&P, and bonds...all higher.
Finance students should promptly switch majors.
PleaseOblahblahMoreOoooooolala
Not bad. Alternatively: Political Oligarths Manipulate Outcomes.
PorkOutMoneyOrgy
Put On Muppet Outfit
Pleasuring Our Ministers Orally
Punishing Our Market's Objectivity
Today we FEAST on free monies! Because tomorrow we may be wanting icewater in hell!
Given the strange and often random way objects (and ideas) impact each other, your post was most welcome, not only for its financial acumen, but because it led me to think of the late, great Grant McLennan (of the Aussie band the Go-Betweens), and his tune "Ice in Heaven" from Horsebreaker Star. Thanks to you, I'll be perusing all my GM and Go-Betweens MP3s this evening. It's been far too long . . .
Heh, heh.
But tomorrow is not - if NFPs come in as expected -> Do we rally, or do we stall, I R KONFUSED!
Companies hiring = Rally..? -> Less QE?
Not hiring = Rally -> Moar QE?
One of these has to give in this schizo world. :) It's pogo-stick economix!
Quick, everyone buy 1 share of SPY. All we need if 4 more points to let the shit impolode.
How long? I can't help but think of this...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PD5Imb7vWSc
and Bill Gross suggests "sell" - yet no mention of what exactly isn't a risk asset and artificially inflated in this hall of mirrors
I have said it here over and over again. Shorting this market is a death wish. Yes, at some point shorts will be a 10 bagger, but not yet and not even close.
I do not understand the likes of good people who never give up. Just getting beaten to death.
Straddles are the key.
Not playing is the key.
Getting a frontal lobotomy is the key ... to understanding this market.
I'd rather have a bottle in front of me than a frontal lobotomy.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-05-01/do-you-see-what-happens-larry-when-you-dont-get-pomo#comment-3519525
I'll gladly short THC, here, thank you very much, Mr. Bernanke.
"monopoly"...Think about it, most, are too afraid to buy @ these prices (extended)...Learn how to short and take advantage of this golden opportunity!
"shorting" as far as the eyes can see
yikes, time to get the pom poms ready
There's always a line out the door when things are given away for free.
Of course nothing is free, just don't tell Bernanke or Krugman.
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
($17 Trillion before the end of Summer)
Speaking of Summer - "The Other Side of Summer", Elvis Costello and the Attractions:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZXlnyRIhp4M
"The automatic gates close up between the shanties and the palace
The blowtorch amusements, the voodoo chalice
The pale pathetic promises that everybody swallows..."
Program trading is replacing people. War of the trading bots.
Watch the fireworks some day when a program trade casuses derivatives to crack and fail all down the chain. It will be a sight to see,
The twitter trade was just a preview.
The trading bots don't matter as much as the coordination between their programmers and the feeders of what triggers the algorithms. Bots simply provide assurance of outcomes because of the inimitable speed and ability to overwhelm the exchange systems and foreclose intervention.
Welcome to the CCCP, cca. 1977.
How can one not chuckle?
Another f*ckin' 12 years before collapse??? I'll never make it that far.
The stock, commodity and currency exchanges have been reduced to gambling dens whereby the more powerful traders with deep pockets move the markets to maximize their own profits at the expense of the remaining not so powerful players.
The big boys have enormous money power to move the markets in the direction which results in maximum profits for themselves. They effectively use the media to lure the other players in the market to a position where they would incur maximum loss.
The markets will fall only when the banksters have eliminated all the short positions and only they themselves have positioned themselves to profit when the market falls
OR
When an unexpected world event catches the banksters with their pants down and the softwares they use to rig the markets go berserk beyond their control.
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article40231.html
Bernanke should be hanging his head in shame at this complete farce of a market.
DavidC
instead he's a proud papa...
Bernake should be hanging himself for what he's done to the markets, exposing himself as a farce and sham.....(fixed it for ya.)
And fwiw, I agree and greened ya'.
I still cannot figure out (beyond pure manipulation) how the fuck the markets are where they're at now.
http://www.google.com/finance?chdnp=1&chdd=1&chds=1&chdv=1&chvs=logarithmic&chdeh=1&chfdeh=0&chdet=1367524800000&chddm=71605&chls=IntervalBasedLine&cmpto=NYSEARCA:UDN;NYSEARCA:USO;NYSEARCA:DTYS;NYSEARCA:GLD&cmptdms=0;0;0;0&q=NYSEARCA:SPY&&fct=big&ei=Do6CUbn7MsfN0gHaDg
If convention goers in Vegas were each given $1 Million dollars to play at the $5 craps table there would be a lot of activity and noise for a very long time.
I still don't understand why, if pumping this much paper into the system, the Fed wouldnt just send everybody a million dollars in cash. Why not? What's the difference?
Because this way they aren't wasting any of it on those grubby muppets.
Because in laymen's terms, sending everyone a check is essentially a tax cut. That would make their idea of self importance irrelevant. I have been saying the same thing for a long time. The gov't has racked up debt equal to 747k per family but most has gone to malinvestment. Individual families etc would have paid down debt, financed education, home improvements, invested etc and created thousands more jobs than trickling money through the govt bearacracy where most of it ended up in the hands of crooks, special interests, or just plain wasted. And that 747k doesn't even include what the Fed has spent.
Yes, why not?
Their answer would be "it's not moral, it's not ethical".
But giving it to bankers is? Of course not, but it makes them rich and us poor.
It doesn't feed their power structure, it would not give them money or debt to oppress people with.
The FED is all about financial oppression, repression, and TYRANNY against it's own citizens, period.
Because private sector debt would evaporate.
Bingo!
Our collective blind spot is that we have been told for so long that fundamentals drive the market that we actually believe it. Thus we are perpetually confused when it is obvious that it is not.
Tell a population a lie long enough and it becomes their/our truth.
Hadn't thought of it that way but probably some truth to that...
wow just look at that 10y vs S&P. just like sam in quantum leap used to say, "OH BOY!" lol god bless netflix
Dupe - see above.
That's because everyone gets out of the euro and gushes into U.S. bonds and U.S. stocks.
Obviously we need to outlaw non-pomo days.....Bloomberg should focus on that rather than big sodas.
Pomo days always push and then hold on next to no volume. No volume never means sell - it means tread water up 1%. 5 years ago a die out in volume would lead to selling. In the new normal volume is not even needed because all the algos are set to buy. No funds really sell (only the stupid ones do), any sell is 100% undone the next day.
Once they stopped caring about any news and any news release means up there is no point even playing anymore other than go all in long and do not watch it. Eventually it will catch up with itself but it could go on for a long, long time. I would not be suprised to have SP500 up 25% this year or more. It does not matter about anything else - Europe, earnings, global macro - none of that matters. The Fed is handing out free money to gamble in the markets with. PE ratios are being expanded in the face of deteriorating fundamentals - again that does not matter. Since there is no risk to being long the game continues.
there's no risk to being long, until there is. fixed it for you...
At one time I thought along that line but now I'm not so sure. Things are so out of wack that no one of any intelligence can present a way for this to be unwound that doesn't involve complete disaster. Maybe limiting our thinking to the conventional is unwise. Bernanke has thrown the entire idea of a "free market" out the window. Does it make sense to think about an "unwinding" program that only uses free market principles? Perhaps not. He may stun the world with some kind of asset price freeze. For example the S&P closes one night at 1750 and it is immediately annonced that 1750 it shall stay until further notice. 5 years ago would you have believed that in the near future the Fed would be going into the market on an almost daily basis and buying up $billions in equities and currency? None of us would have, and all of us were wrong. Just sayin'.
In a rational world, this would be called market manipulation. In the world we now inhabit, it's called "recovery".
in a rational world the President of the United States would go to a foriegn country (mex) to talk to Americans about providing a path to citizenship for the residents of that country and that country's residents currently living in America
Damn good thing all this POMO money is trickling down to the masses...
That's not POMO money trickling down on us...
S&P 1700 by end of May if these POMO days end up like this at least half of the time.
BTW, somebody above mentioned everything up today - dollar, stocks, bonds, etc. - and that finance student should switch majors. They should. To alchemy.
The Y2K problem has been replaced by the S&P2K problem.
Both require large injections of precautionary liquidity.
It's for your own safety, comrade.
Gold up, Silver up, Dollar up, Oil up, Copper up, Stocks up, VIX flat.
This is total bullshit.
what's with these huge swings in oil the past couple of weeks? you're right, I call bullshit...
They're getting desperate. The swings get wider.
yesterday it was down because of "over supply" bullshit and today there must be a fucking shortage...
Feeding the derivative monster.
They are "saving" SPX 1600 for tomorrow morning when the totally manufactured NFP figures are "better than expected" or "could have been worse" or whatever other bullsheet excuse they decide to come up with.
Tyler - Can someone write a piece that discusses the process POMO?
Im interested in The Fed's endgame without discussion of right or wrong.
Fed is builiding an asset pile that's currently undervalued, in exchange for currency.
Currency floods the market stimulating inflation and transactions.
As prices inflate, Fed Assets purchased through POMO begin to rise in value.
Same assets become attractive and make it back into market so Fed can unwind bets.
End result is X amount of currency added to system creating new price structure.
Underlying attributes such as wages lag contributing to wealth transfer.
Fewer winners, more losers, to what end?
It'd be great to discuss Fed Theory and thread that theory through pinhole reality.
See ZeroHedge tagline, top right of your screen.
So we all must be scare tomorrow because there will be no POMO day on Friday.
If my name does not say enough, POMO is what this market is all about. No growth in real terms. Let them keep eating at the trough until...kaboom.
It all ends when we are all swiming in Monopoly $$$. Mugabe would be very proud of Ben.
POMO = piggyback trade, a signal if you will. It works until it doesn't.
without a POMO i cannot get it up in the morning.
POMO, No POMO, that's easy.
Try to imagine 100 Reverse POMO days in a row, aka the great unwind.
Better get a towel first.
Since Jan 1, 2013, SP 500
Market gain on POMO days +63.59
Market gain on non-POMO days +56.69
Total Market gain all days +120.28
This is open to close, does not tell us anything from POMO day AND time.
According to Canaccord Genuity:
http://fs1.hidemyass.com/download/oiJmn/l0dnjl73ag6ihmioaubg7u3a46
HURRY UP AND WAIT
We have been anticipating a correction over recent weeks, and we see no reason to change that view. Our reasons for expecting a pause in the upside remain tactical in nature because the fundamentals that have driven the rally since the 2009 low continue to be in place. We expect a correction because (1) the equity market is near-term overbought and somewhat extended above its 200-day moving average, and (2) the current move higher is the second longest without a 5% correction since the 2009 low. A 5% correction from the recent peak of would bring the SPX very close to our 1500 near-term correction target. As you all know, we believe the intermediate-term fundamental, historical and tactical framework command buying the equity market on any correction – especially one that is +/- 5%. Our 2013 target remains 1760, which assumes a 16 multiple on $110 EPS for the SPX.
Definition of insanity. Before we convince you there could be a 5% correction, we need to convince you the backdrop remains so favorable for domestic equities that any weakness should be used as an opportunity to add exposure. Remember that corrections are only natural, normal and healthy until they actually happen. The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over, but expecting a different result. The fundamental drivers of the equity market have not changed throughout this entire cycle, yet many continue to find reasons they won’t work. Those favorable drivers have been:
1. Low core inflation (Figure 1),
2. Historically accommodative monetary policy as seen in the real Fed Funds rate (Figure 2),
3. Improving money availability and steep yield curve (Figure 3),
4. Slow but positive economic activity,
5. Directionally positive EPS and upward trend in valuation levels.
Investing is not an academic study. Is it a cause for concern that the Fed is artificially keeping rates lower than where they should be? Not based on the past four years. Continued deceleration in core inflation is giving the Fed cover to keep rates abnormally low, which improves the availability of money that leads to positive growth for the economy and therefore corporate America. The very smart-sounding counter to these factors are weak domestic economic and employment growth, a meaningful slowdown in growth in China, and the recessionary environment in the Eurozone. These factors are real, and over the past few years they have caused corrections, but have not been the ultimate driver of stocks – the guys printing the money have. We try not to get wrapped up in whether that is right or wrong because it just is what it is – practically positive for domestic equities.
Makes me wonder what the DHS is up to.
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/GFDEGDQ188S
Federal Debt: Total Public Debt as Percent of Gross Domestic Product (GFDEGDQ188S)
2012:Q4: 103.58438 Percent of GDP
Quarterly, Seasonally Adjusted
Updated: 2013-03-29 10:01 AM CDT
According to chart posted yesterday there are only about 4 non POMO days the entire month