This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.

Joe LaVorgna vs Randomness, And Randomness Wins, Or What Tomorrow's NFP Will Not Be

Tyler Durden's picture




 

The "predictive capabilities" of Deutsche Bank's amusing permabull strategist Joe LaVorgna are well known to Zero Hedge readers. Just recall that when it comes to forecasting the future, even one Groundhog Phil has a success rate of 71%, or over a standard deviation more accurate compared to Joe "Coin Toss" LaVorgna's 51%.

But perhaps there is a way to harness this horrendous track record of being correct about the future precisely half the time. Indeed, as the following analysis conducted by John Lohman proves, predicting NFP payrolls based on simply extrapolating the previous month's number, or for all intents and purposes, "randomly" one month into the future and comparing it to the original actual NFP print, would have led to a smaller absolute median and average error rate than listening to LaVorgna (46 error vs Joe's 56 median error).

So what does this mean for tomorrow's NFP number? Since LaVorgna's most recent forecast is 140K, and assuming statistics holds, it is a safe bet to assume that we know what the actual reported NFP will not be: it will not be a number in the range of 84K to 196K, which is simply his forecast and applying the 56K abs median variance. around it  Of course, since this is purely statistical, LaVorgna just may pull the short straw this time, although again based on statistics, if we were to bet, we would assume a number closer to the 88K print tomorrow, which is what last month's number was, than any numbered clustered around 140K.

Either that, or we would listen to Groundhog Phil first.

h/t @Not_Jim_Cramer

 

- advertisements -

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Thu, 05/02/2013 - 17:57 | 3524213 Manthong
Manthong's picture

farm or no farm.. this does not sound good..

Consumers push restaurants for cheaper food - USA Today

Thu, 05/02/2013 - 18:01 | 3524220 prains
prains's picture

let me guess; he holds the card up to his forehead before he chooses.

 

 

 

<waving lite cones to the left, to the right>

Thu, 05/02/2013 - 18:04 | 3524233 walküre
walküre's picture

I'm noticing many big foreheads lately. Have aliens taken over yet?

Thu, 05/02/2013 - 18:06 | 3524236 prains
prains's picture

that dude is rockin the best asian-fro i've seen since '88

Thu, 05/02/2013 - 21:25 | 3524881 algol_dog
algol_dog's picture

A horrible wig for sure. Suggest hair club for men, for a better fit ...

Thu, 05/02/2013 - 18:06 | 3524239 McMolotov
McMolotov's picture

The poor fucker should sell ad space on that thing.

Thu, 05/02/2013 - 18:24 | 3524288 Colonel Klink
Colonel Klink's picture

That's called a Fivehead, because it's even bigger than a fourhead.

Thu, 05/02/2013 - 18:31 | 3524308 Say What Again
Say What Again's picture

But wait.  He's one of the expert guests on CNBC.  He MUST know what he's talkin 'bout.

Thu, 05/02/2013 - 19:15 | 3524403 american eyedol
american eyedol's picture

they are all worth every penny on cnbc,,,,kudlow got bumped for nhl tonight

Thu, 05/02/2013 - 19:28 | 3524448 Say What Again
Say What Again's picture

Good thing.  Kudlow is a moron.

.

<Joke.P1> What's the best way to watch hockey?</Joke.P1>

Thu, 05/02/2013 - 20:03 | 3524556 prains
prains's picture

dumb turd looks like he's still standing in line to be an extra on "sixteen candles"

Thu, 05/02/2013 - 19:03 | 3524378 negative rates
negative rates's picture

No, but he needs a new shampoo.

Thu, 05/02/2013 - 18:01 | 3524221 youngman
youngman's picture

I don´t think anyone will hire until they know what Obamacare is going to cost them.....unless they build guns and ammo where sales are to the moon..

Thu, 05/02/2013 - 18:34 | 3524313 Petrus Romanus
Petrus Romanus's picture

Obamacare is going to cost everyone even doctors. Not long ago, at a conference in San Antonio, these disgusted proffesionals walked out of a symposium discussing implementation.

Have a look:

                   https://twitter.com/kksheld/status/326046318285946880/photo/1

 

 

Don't think they're very happy with this shit!

Thu, 05/02/2013 - 18:02 | 3524229 buzzardsluck
buzzardsluck's picture

Clearly the larger forehead of joe is hurting him when going agaisnt Phil.  No fucking idea how, just throwing it out there.

Thu, 05/02/2013 - 18:10 | 3524247 sodbuster
sodbuster's picture

Yeah, and Joe's got them beady little eyes, too.

Thu, 05/02/2013 - 18:08 | 3524238 The Master
The Master's picture

Joe Lavorgna at the office on a Saturday after yet another incorrect NFP prediction:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SWTh7eL-iO8

 

 

Thu, 05/02/2013 - 18:06 | 3524240 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

I am convinced LaVorgna has been cloned 2 or 3 times with varying forehead heights.  Sometimes he looks better than at other times.

Typical useless DB financial technician.  

Thu, 05/02/2013 - 18:17 | 3524267 walküre
walküre's picture

they don't call it

DOUCHE BANK

for nottin'

Thu, 05/02/2013 - 18:09 | 3524245 LaurentDeLyon
LaurentDeLyon's picture

J'adore  - I adore , la marmotte - the groundhog; maybe

Kermit the Frog could present the Joe Show ?

 

Thu, 05/02/2013 - 18:09 | 3524246 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

     I have some video from a couple of weeks ago on this 'WIG'.  I saved it because of his forward earnings and growth expectations.

  I'll dig it up, or call a few pals. F**king rookie.  Ron Insanas' love child with the recessive balding gene.

Thu, 05/02/2013 - 18:20 | 3524272 walküre
walküre's picture

you had the wrong guy, that's him

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=na9ZZ4ZjVa8

 

Thu, 05/02/2013 - 18:32 | 3524309 Aurora Ex Machina
Aurora Ex Machina's picture

That's impressively cruel... but not as accurate as mine.

Thu, 05/02/2013 - 19:58 | 3524546 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

My vote is for the one with ESP. She's likely very good at NFP estimates.

Thu, 05/02/2013 - 18:27 | 3524304 Colonel Klink
Colonel Klink's picture

Joseph Lavorgna. (male) English form of the biblical Hebrew name Yosef, meaning '(God) shall add (another son)'.

Wonder if he's an exhaulted members of the tribe?

Thu, 05/02/2013 - 19:43 | 3524497 thisandthat
thisandthat's picture

I believe is name is LaVergogna, Joe LaVergogna...

Thu, 05/02/2013 - 19:11 | 3524389 khakuda
khakuda's picture

I'd be bullish all the time if I had hair like that.  I'd be like, "Hey, what could go wrong?  FU all.  I have hair.  Life is great and in my mind chicks dig me.  What more do I need."

Thu, 05/02/2013 - 19:46 | 3524509 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Here's the pinhead interview/   http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2xaw_t7K-FM        "Joe La Vorgna" in all his wisdom!

   I knew I had it stored in my cranium!  

Thu, 05/02/2013 - 20:08 | 3524573 prains
prains's picture

no i think if you look back left behind the pineapple, it's him

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rXH_12QWWg8

Thu, 05/02/2013 - 19:49 | 3524518 thismarketisrigged
thismarketisrigged's picture

i love the first friday of each month when the job reports come out.

 

cnbc during this time is the most entertaining thing on tv, with santelli and liesman always getting into it.

 

830 on cnbc tomorrow morning is must see tv.

Thu, 05/02/2013 - 20:57 | 3524768 lotsoffun
lotsoffun's picture

why bother?  you know that 'unemployment' is either flat or down.  i can't believe they have the balls to present

(because the number is so bogus and manipulated) as down - but probably flat meaning they took

another 500k people out of the employment pool.

on the other hand - i might be wrong.  because if it goes up - that means bennie has to PRINT MORE -

because we all know that the goal is 6.5 and we can only get there via QE.

bottom line is - GS and JPM already know what the number is (and they set it), so unless you

are an insider - well - be prepared to get hurt if you want to play the markets.

 

Thu, 05/02/2013 - 20:13 | 3524597 realtick
realtick's picture

i'm not making any predictions, but based on the charts the UNRATE could go down another 5 tenths of a percent and still be in a long term uptrend

monthly changes in adp and nfp have been rolling over to the downside, but initial claims data ain't confirming that shit yet

Taking Care Of The Overlook - April NFP Preview

http://chartistfriendfrompittsburgh.blogspot.com/2013/05/taking-care-of-...

Thu, 05/02/2013 - 20:28 | 3524660 optionsman
optionsman's picture

the problem is his views are not all that well known. if more people paid attention to his work I'd bet he'd be long gone from the bank. question is whether at the bank they follow his view or do they have a separate opinion from the desk and which is the one they actually follow? ;)

Thu, 05/02/2013 - 20:53 | 3524754 lotsoffun
lotsoffun's picture

as with all research analysts - he's a shill and the bank bets exactly the other way.

bill dudley was a great shill at goldmine shacks during the 90's.  he done well for himself, the boy.

he can even eat i-junk. 

see what i mean?

 

Thu, 05/02/2013 - 21:01 | 3524783 optionsman
optionsman's picture

+1

hear NFP wisper numbers are 120-125. IMHO #'s miss to downside. I say 70k+- realizing that 70k is not that different from 88k derived above in the article. if I am right 10yr closes at around 150 with equities ending the day unch.

Thu, 05/02/2013 - 20:55 | 3524762 Cabreado
Cabreado's picture

It amazes me that there are people who get up in the morning looking forward to their day of deceiving the world, and doing it well, and not having a clue...

I think all we're seeing here is just more evidence of how Roman-ese we really are.

It is a sickness and a flaw of the human personality that precludes any long-term success, so here We are again.

After all, you must admit that even sans the Lawbreakers, the Self-Absorbed in too-high places are eventually enough to bring it all down.

Thu, 05/02/2013 - 20:56 | 3524766 XRAYD
XRAYD's picture

HIS forecast on TV for last Q GDP just an hour or so before it was released was: 4%.

 

The Fed can sure use a guy like him!

Thu, 05/02/2013 - 20:57 | 3524772 MaxMax
MaxMax's picture

Remember Abby Joseph Cohen?  Buy, buy, buy!  Another fucking G.S. pumper.

Thu, 05/02/2013 - 21:09 | 3524828 venturen
venturen's picture

Obama is announcing Full Employment....Soviet Style!

Thu, 05/02/2013 - 22:10 | 3525026 thismarketisrigged
thismarketisrigged's picture

the real unemployment number is around 20 percent and the real nfp jobs added was prob around 50 k really,

 

what they will report is unemployment at 7.7 percent and jobs added around 170k.

 

its all bs

Fri, 05/03/2013 - 05:46 | 3525722 Foo Bar Baz
Foo Bar Baz's picture

it will not be a number in the range of 84K to 196K, which is simply his forecast and applying the 56K abs median variance. around it

what?

Fri, 05/03/2013 - 16:41 | 3528447 Mojeaux18
Mojeaux18's picture

Wow.  The Bugger got within 56K!

 

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!