Joe LaVorgna vs Randomness, And Randomness Wins, Or What Tomorrow's NFP Will Not Be

Tyler Durden's picture

The "predictive capabilities" of Deutsche Bank's amusing permabull strategist Joe LaVorgna are well known to Zero Hedge readers. Just recall that when it comes to forecasting the future, even one Groundhog Phil has a success rate of 71%, or over a standard deviation more accurate compared to Joe "Coin Toss" LaVorgna's 51%.

But perhaps there is a way to harness this horrendous track record of being correct about the future precisely half the time. Indeed, as the following analysis conducted by John Lohman proves, predicting NFP payrolls based on simply extrapolating the previous month's number, or for all intents and purposes, "randomly" one month into the future and comparing it to the original actual NFP print, would have led to a smaller absolute median and average error rate than listening to LaVorgna (46 error vs Joe's 56 median error).

So what does this mean for tomorrow's NFP number? Since LaVorgna's most recent forecast is 140K, and assuming statistics holds, it is a safe bet to assume that we know what the actual reported NFP will not be: it will not be a number in the range of 84K to 196K, which is simply his forecast and applying the 56K abs median variance. around it  Of course, since this is purely statistical, LaVorgna just may pull the short straw this time, although again based on statistics, if we were to bet, we would assume a number closer to the 88K print tomorrow, which is what last month's number was, than any numbered clustered around 140K.

Either that, or we would listen to Groundhog Phil first.

h/t @Not_Jim_Cramer

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prains's picture

let me guess; he holds the card up to his forehead before he chooses.




<waving lite cones to the left, to the right>

walküre's picture

I'm noticing many big foreheads lately. Have aliens taken over yet?

prains's picture

that dude is rockin the best asian-fro i've seen since '88

algol_dog's picture

A horrible wig for sure. Suggest hair club for men, for a better fit ...

McMolotov's picture

The poor fucker should sell ad space on that thing.

Colonel Klink's picture

That's called a Fivehead, because it's even bigger than a fourhead.

Say What Again's picture

But wait.  He's one of the expert guests on CNBC.  He MUST know what he's talkin 'bout.

american eyedol's picture

they are all worth every penny on cnbc,,,,kudlow got bumped for nhl tonight

Say What Again's picture

Good thing.  Kudlow is a moron.


<Joke.P1> What's the best way to watch hockey?</Joke.P1>

prains's picture

dumb turd looks like he's still standing in line to be an extra on "sixteen candles"

youngman's picture

I don´t think anyone will hire until they know what Obamacare is going to cost them.....unless they build guns and ammo where sales are to the moon..

Petrus Romanus's picture

Obamacare is going to cost everyone even doctors. Not long ago, at a conference in San Antonio, these disgusted proffesionals walked out of a symposium discussing implementation.

Have a look:




Don't think they're very happy with this shit!

buzzardsluck's picture

Clearly the larger forehead of joe is hurting him when going agaisnt Phil.  No fucking idea how, just throwing it out there.

sodbuster's picture

Yeah, and Joe's got them beady little eyes, too.

The Master's picture

Joe Lavorgna at the office on a Saturday after yet another incorrect NFP prediction:



slaughterer's picture

I am convinced LaVorgna has been cloned 2 or 3 times with varying forehead heights.  Sometimes he looks better than at other times.

Typical useless DB financial technician.  

walküre's picture

they don't call it


for nottin'

LaurentDeLyon's picture

J'adore  - I adore , la marmotte - the groundhog; maybe

Kermit the Frog could present the Joe Show ?


Yen Cross's picture

     I have some video from a couple of weeks ago on this 'WIG'.  I saved it because of his forward earnings and growth expectations.

  I'll dig it up, or call a few pals. F**king rookie.  Ron Insanas' love child with the recessive balding gene.

Aurora Ex Machina's picture

That's impressively cruel... but not as accurate as mine.

DeadFred's picture

My vote is for the one with ESP. She's likely very good at NFP estimates.

Colonel Klink's picture

Joseph Lavorgna. (male) English form of the biblical Hebrew name Yosef, meaning '(God) shall add (another son)'.

Wonder if he's an exhaulted members of the tribe?

thisandthat's picture

I believe is name is LaVergogna, Joe LaVergogna...

khakuda's picture

I'd be bullish all the time if I had hair like that.  I'd be like, "Hey, what could go wrong?  FU all.  I have hair.  Life is great and in my mind chicks dig me.  What more do I need."

Yen Cross's picture

 Here's the pinhead interview/        "Joe La Vorgna" in all his wisdom!

   I knew I had it stored in my cranium!  

prains's picture

no i think if you look back left behind the pineapple, it's him

thismarketisrigged's picture

i love the first friday of each month when the job reports come out.


cnbc during this time is the most entertaining thing on tv, with santelli and liesman always getting into it.


830 on cnbc tomorrow morning is must see tv.

lotsoffun's picture

why bother?  you know that 'unemployment' is either flat or down.  i can't believe they have the balls to present

(because the number is so bogus and manipulated) as down - but probably flat meaning they took

another 500k people out of the employment pool.

on the other hand - i might be wrong.  because if it goes up - that means bennie has to PRINT MORE -

because we all know that the goal is 6.5 and we can only get there via QE.

bottom line is - GS and JPM already know what the number is (and they set it), so unless you

are an insider - well - be prepared to get hurt if you want to play the markets.


realtick's picture

i'm not making any predictions, but based on the charts the UNRATE could go down another 5 tenths of a percent and still be in a long term uptrend

monthly changes in adp and nfp have been rolling over to the downside, but initial claims data ain't confirming that shit yet

Taking Care Of The Overlook - April NFP Preview

optionsman's picture

the problem is his views are not all that well known. if more people paid attention to his work I'd bet he'd be long gone from the bank. question is whether at the bank they follow his view or do they have a separate opinion from the desk and which is the one they actually follow? ;)

lotsoffun's picture

as with all research analysts - he's a shill and the bank bets exactly the other way.

bill dudley was a great shill at goldmine shacks during the 90's.  he done well for himself, the boy.

he can even eat i-junk. 

see what i mean?


optionsman's picture


hear NFP wisper numbers are 120-125. IMHO #'s miss to downside. I say 70k+- realizing that 70k is not that different from 88k derived above in the article. if I am right 10yr closes at around 150 with equities ending the day unch.

Cabreado's picture

It amazes me that there are people who get up in the morning looking forward to their day of deceiving the world, and doing it well, and not having a clue...

I think all we're seeing here is just more evidence of how Roman-ese we really are.

It is a sickness and a flaw of the human personality that precludes any long-term success, so here We are again.

After all, you must admit that even sans the Lawbreakers, the Self-Absorbed in too-high places are eventually enough to bring it all down.

XRAYD's picture

HIS forecast on TV for last Q GDP just an hour or so before it was released was: 4%.


The Fed can sure use a guy like him!

MaxMax's picture

Remember Abby Joseph Cohen?  Buy, buy, buy!  Another fucking G.S. pumper.

venturen's picture

Obama is announcing Full Employment....Soviet Style!

thismarketisrigged's picture

the real unemployment number is around 20 percent and the real nfp jobs added was prob around 50 k really,


what they will report is unemployment at 7.7 percent and jobs added around 170k.


its all bs

Foo Bar Baz's picture

it will not be a number in the range of 84K to 196K, which is simply his forecast and applying the 56K abs median variance. around it


Mojeaux18's picture

Wow.  The Bugger got within 56K!