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April Payrolls +165,000, 7.5% Unemployment Rate, Participation Rate Flat At 1979 Levels
Following the March NFP disappointment, it was only reasonable to expect a modest beat in this month's data which came at +165,000, on expectations of +140,000, and following a revision to the March number from 88K to 138K. The unemployment rate declined from 7.6% to 7.5% beating, expectations of an unchanged print. The flipside, as always, is that the labor participation rate remained flat, at 63.3%, once again the lowest since 1979.
From the report:
The unemployment rate, at 7.5 percent, changed little in April but has declined by 0.4 percentage point since January. The number of unemployed persons, at 11.7 million, was also little changed over the month; however, unemployment has decreased by 673,000 since January. (See table A-1.)
Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rate for adult women (6.7 percent) declined in April, while the rates for adult men (7.1 percent), teenagers (24.1 percent), whites (6.7 percent), blacks (13.2 percent), and Hispanics (9.0 percent) showed little or no change. The jobless rate for Asians was 5.1 percent (not seasonally adjusted), little changed from a year earlier. (See tables A-1, A-2, and A-3.)
In April, the number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) declined by 258,000 to 4.4 million; their share of the unemployed declined by 2.2 percentage points to 37.4 percent. Over the past 12 months, the number of long-term unemployed has decreased by 687,000, and their share has declined by 3.1 percentage points. (See table A-12.)
The civilian labor force participation rate was 63.3 percent in April, unchanged over the month but down from 63.6 percent in January. The employment-population ratio, 58.6 percent, was about unchanged over the month and has shown little movement, on net, over the past year. (See table A-1.)
In April, the number of persons employed part time for economic reasons (sometimes referred to as involuntary part-time workers) increased by 278,000 to 7.9 million, largely offsetting a decrease in March. These individuals were working part time because their hours had been cut back or because they were unable to find a full-time job. (See table A-8.)
In April, 2.3 million persons were marginally attached to the labor force, essentially unchanged from a year earlier. (The data are not seasonally adjusted.) These individuals were not in the labor force, wanted and were available for work, and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months. They were not counted as unemployed because they had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey. (See table A-16.)
Among the marginally attached, there were 835,000 discouraged workers in April, down by 133,000 from a year earlier. (The data are not seasonally adjusted.) Discouraged workers are persons not currently looking for work because they believe no jobs are available for them. The remaining 1.5 million persons marginally attached to the labor force in April had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey for reasons such as school attendance or family responsibilities. (See table A-16.
That said, as previewed earlier, the number itself is merely noise, since no matter the outcome, the market would have taken a bad number as positive for more QE, and a good number as "confirming" the first modest macro improvement in the past two months.
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Great Another Jobs Number, Still have economic problems.
Keep Track of it everyday
Layoff / Closing List
http://www.dailyjobcuts.com
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Chronicles of a Silverbug Lemming
Part 2
Marisa is furious. "Jack, would you leave that computer for two seconds and spend some time with your family for once?"
Jacks barely flinches. He is busy eyeing his third losing trade of the day. He moves his stop lower - he is not going to lose this one.
"Jack, I can't go on like this! Look at your son and daughter, they barely see you even though you're at home all day."
Jack snaps: "I'm coming now damn it! Someone has to make living around here you know! Professional traders at the 'Bullion Banks' trade from five in the morning to late at night; if I'm going to make it as a trader, I'm going to have to make sacrifices. Why can't you understand that?!"
Jack glances back at his screen. Silver Wheaton has taken another plunge, his stop has been hit. Jack cannot believe his eyes. He looks up and howls at the sky. "Noooooo!"
Marisa slams the office door shut and storms off.
You're messed up.
He is on someone's payroll. That is for sure.
I mean how else could he know my name was jack?
MDb's name is Jack. That story is definitely autobiographical...
You're too kind Doc.
Big difference between paper and physical. All my ounces are still there. Wake me when the prices in fiat gets back to the dollar cost average of under $300 and $8 per ounce. That's the dollar cost average on my holdings of gold and silver. The best part is I never have any problem exchanging them for the "fiat du jour" or the real value of another's labor.
Ah MBD, troll of trolls, so many paper promises and so little real collateral...
Which part of "buy silver hand over fist, don't sell any!" didn't Jack understand?!
Maybe he was unable to find physical silver due to the shortages, and mistakenly thought that the miners might be able leverage this shortage to their advantage, being producers of the physical commodity and all. Little did he know that the miners are the only people on the entire planet who still sell physical metal for the paper-established price.
I can tell a writer when I see one!
mdb makes a stupid post as usual and gets his daily ass pat from his troll master, he says hey boss i did such a great job on zh so will you please use some lube this time before you do me, thanks!
Reading the tripe that you pass off as fiction, it is safe to say that you are not the next Fitzgerald or Hemingway.
We are all greatly relieved.
I specifically remember a request where it was advised that Marisa get naked in part II.
You are large disappointment :(
Hey, if he ain't gettin it, we ain't gettin it...
Thanks for the reminder, I think a trade I did the other day will be settled today. If SLW is looking beaten up, I'll buy a few shares...
Hey MDB,
your off topic threadjacking bullshit is rude.
Asshole
Their pants on fire are obviously what lit the building up.
1979....please don't tell me they're bringing back disco.
Or Smashing Pumpkins?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eePRkP1HMYQ
As I suspected yesterday, NFP report was leaked, and the ramp was not because of POMO.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-05-02/its-pomo-day#comment-3522790
John Williams of Shadow Stats just released data that shows otherwise.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mfXC9T8hzlY
B.U.L.L.S.H.I.T.
No pomo today??
Remember 1979 was at the end of Jimmy Carter's term and things really sucked then. WIN - whip inflation now - remember that button? Bernake wants inflation. Go figure.
There was global cooling in the 70's now Gore says there is global warming. Go figure.
Only if interest rates can rise. They cannot, this will be inflation via currency collapse, world war will follow.
Not yet, wait for the initial (transient) deflation to pass ...
With over 16 trillion in "official" debt. If rates go much above 2.0% on the ten-year it's game over and the U.S. will hard default (as opposed to the soft-default we have now). Should that happen, civil/world war will follow. Hedge accordingly.
Don't let Paul Volcker anywhere near the war room. No way in hell we can afford 1980s interest rates.
you didnt think they would just tiptoe across 1600 ES did ya? gotta make it look like its goin to 1800 /s
It is "maximum fudge" season for the BLS artists.
Wait....isn't the decline in the participation rate just due to the aging population retiring and moving their qualified money into fixed (also explains the inflow into bond funds)... I mean we are ALL getting older right?.......................................................... I can hear this on CNBS already.
Imagination Land
bad jobs report= market goes up 100 plus pts
good job reports= market gos up 500 pts. this is comical, i really hope all these fed guys die along with obama.
stop the qe fuckers if things are so good
also isnt it hilarious how when the numbers last month were horrible it was the weather, but now all is good?
i guess the weather was amazing this past month
stop the qe fuckers if things are so good
Yep - if "the world is saved" then why is the Fed still pumping $85B a month into Fraud Street and the Fed.Gov still running $1T +/- in deficit every year?
I know, rhetorical. I denounce myself.
I hear self-denouncement beats self abuse by a mile. Was it good for you?
SOMEBODY needs to fund that $trillion deficit. And if they can kill 2 birds with one stone by simultaneously cleaning up their masters balance sheets (at least as long as Treasuries are treated as safe 'investments'), well then it's a win-win for them.
Uh, oh - March revised from 88k to 138K.
Face melt ON!
hours worked down
temp employment + 60K in last 2 months
obamacare tax law kicking into gear
Exactly, and what about the average wage?
Part time employment skyrocketing due to ObumerCaer 29 hrs.
Just be more productive, bitchez. ;-)
I wouldn't trade that participation chart...take the other side. IRobots coming to wallmart
Party like its 1979!
-Prince Osama Obama
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=APx2YJ-_jos
At least the 70s were fun.
Looks like gold and silver traders had the data an hour early.
I also don't really believe the numbers.
Numbers are legit, but part time is the new full time in this economy/decade/century.
Yup. 7.9 million involuntarily part-time workers. Doe that mean my five-hour work day makes me involuntarily poor? Because if it does, it's a total canard. I signed up to be poor. My case worker said it was the only way to go.
Then there's the 2.3 million who are marginally attached. I really think what's marginally attached is credibility to the BLS numbers. Same goes for the Fed, the federal govt. and right on down the line to my corrupt, banal, overfed, dishonorable, impudent town officials.
This report really ruins my weekend. I was hoping to hear more excuses. Sadly, we're winning (shades of The Producers).
Well, back to pounding more sand for my masters...
They better not let that unemployment rate drop too low, Ben will lose some cover to print moar.
Ben has a RED LINE in the sand..at 6.5%.....I hope its redder than Obama´s RED LINE...Obama's line moves alot...and fades out
Huh....seems the 'terrible sequester' is actually very GOOD for jobs after all!
Mother's Day Card sales helped push this numbers up/down....Dow15K just around the corner. Who had the foresight to print hats?
S&P 1600!
And after that it'll be Nasdaq 3,500.. and then S&P 1,700.. then DOW 16,000... etc.. etc.. etc.. etc
Wasn't it a couple years ago when it took 300K+ to just keep up with population growth?
Beating expectations all the way down.
pods
"Beating expectations all the way down." - Hey that's my line...
<hat tip>
My bad.
:)
My only guess here is this made up horseshit number and revision will be immediately followed by massive downgrades across the board for gold and another giant paper dump.
That being said, this is a nightmare. People will now chase the S&P to 1700.
I honestly don't think they can really arrive at a number. When the month before has a ~50% revision it tells me that they are just reporting what their program tells them.
If I actually tried to report a result with an RSD of ~50% I would be part of the 7.5%.
Ain't even in the same ballpark.
I think Jules said it quite well.
pods
why we all make a big deal out of this report is beyond me. My guess is the few actual people on here trading were probably just caught short (again). Other than that, like Doc pointed out, it's just robots throwing hot potato's at each other.
I do fantasy football. The league owner has a dog. Every August he sets up 9 boxes and numbers them 1-9. His dog goes out every day and takes a shit in a box. That is how the draft order is determined. My guess is they do something similar for NFP.
+10,000, pods, for Pulp Fiction reference.
Can I get 1979 prices on diesel? That would be great! Long sharecropping!!!
And the huge upward revisions.
Told you guys it'd be a beat.
holy holy , the obama economic miracle of billions for bankers and food stamps for the rest is in high gerar...170.000....puh leeze.. and harvey found a dollar..gdp at 66%
they had to rigg the number today because there is no pomo, so the only way the market can go up today is a solid number.
any bad number and we would be down 300 pts today with no fed backstop.
labor participation rate is fucking flat yet this is great news.
i cant wait for all these fucking traders to be in a bloodbath in the market
There are some Fed governors recognizing the uselessness of more QE. If they can jack down these numbers a little further then they can give the Fed a face saving chance to reduce or stop QE. Otherwise, this number is garbage.
It's like the last 34 years didn't happen.
Sweet, I'm going back to playing with matchbox cars and burning things with a magnifying glass.
pods
Wear your sunglasses.
I can't. All my matchbox and hotwheels cars were lost to possitive camber. Never figured out how to fix that.
'Following last months disappointment it was only logic to assume a modest beat this month'....but wait...what about all the 'devastation to jobs' I've been hearing about on the newz...where's that?
Goods producing -----> -9,000 (Yes! minus!)
Service ----------------> +185,000
So jobs in retail and bars and restaurants and temp positions ... that is how you build a solid economy. Screw construction, mining, and manufacturing. Those low wage jobs will surely boost the economy.
That's how you build a third world country
This was expected, given the manufacturing PMIs.
It's a post-industrial economy. :)
/semi-sarc
Let's see here...at an average of 150k jobs per month, at the very reasonable cost of only $85 billion in thin-air money, that works out to...carry the one...to only $566,666.66 per job.
Well done Bernank! It's almost impossible to tell you never held a real world business position!... ;\
People are finally realizing that they don't have to work.
There's no business like no business!
Que Ethel
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TFLM1z4v1pI
exactly - even obama barely works
last month was historically bad at the time especially and the market was fucking flat that day.
someone fucking explain how this is legal?
why why why is nothing being done to stop this criminal shit. why is bernanke and obama not being hung today in public infront of everybody? why why why
Household Employment Overall:
+26k
65+ Employment: +156k
16-64 Employment: -130k
Birth/death added 192k.. So we actually lost jobs.
So the 'market' is celebrating fake imaginary jobs, well it is a fake 'market' so not surprising really.
Got to keep the smoke and mirrors active and benefit the 0.1% at the same time
Like a glove. Time to short aud/jpy
Ramp and camp.
Birth/Death model = +193,000 ... Hooray!
The USSA is better at manipulation than Russia and China now
So a bunch of new burger flippers just got hired at minimum wage. The participation rate is the lowest ever. Big fucking deal. Look at the futures. You would think they would tank because the punch bowl should be pulled back now because unemployment is going down----yeah right.
so today we will hit 1600 on s&p and 15000 on dow.
wow, what a fucking good way to enter the weekend.
because these numbers actually indicate a strong economy, only a fucking gulible son of a bitch believes these numbers are real.
i guess people who work 1 hour a day are considered employed, and part of the jobs added
+278,000 part time
-113,000 full time
+165,000 total
Average hours worked down .1, isn't that like losing 250,000 jobs?
Smoke and mirrors report.
"This is a problem. If we look at the "employed" figure of 143,724,000 people a drop of 0.2 hours is a full-time-equivalent decrease of 1/2%. Applied to the employed population this amounts to an imputed economic decrease of 718,620 jobs!
That is, the loss of work-week hours of just 0.2 is the same economic impact as firing 700,000 people!
There is a huge problem coming this year and into next in this regard as the trend of cutting hours back to get under Obamacare limits is picking up steam and will continue.
Do not underestimate the economic impact of those hours-worked changes -- you'd have to post up a +700k jobs figure to offset just this one month's change in hourly workweek!"
http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=220385
What I would like to have someone do is compare a list of BLS employees to the customer list at beprepared.com. It seems like at least the clever ones would see the writing on the wall through the propaganda.
835,000 doscouraged workers, that falls roughly in line with the 875,000 people on the terrorist watch list in the fed data base...seasonably adjusted of course.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/05/03/us-usa-security-database-idUSB...
Sour grapes from everyone on this website.
Why can't you learn to love Bernanke, love Obama, love QE. It just takes a little will power. Stop being so negative all the time.
(Putting on crash helmet & body armour before the abuse comes raining down).
@ Rodders75,''Why can't you learn to love Bernanke, love Obama, love QE. It just takes a little will power. Stop being so negative all the time. ''
i will never lose those fucking bastards. they deserve the most painful type of death there is. these are evil people stealing from every single one of us. i should like qe?
do you really fucking think i am going to buy aapl at 450, or goog at 840, or any of the financials at their inflated prices, or any fucking stock at there inflated prices.
i refuse to participate and pay an insane amount of money for these companies which are worth half of what they are trading for. only a sucker would buy goog now for 840 a share. ya goog at 840 a share, its worth maybe 240 a share
I'm not sure Bernanke is evil, but more probably a fool, a coward, and a liar. Have you ever nearly drowned, and the panic sets in? I have 3 times. I think that is where Bernanke is about now. I can hear it in his voice during his press conferences and congressional testimony. Someone close to him should tell him about the great feeling you get when you acknowledge the truth and say you are sorry to those people you've hurt, and then try to correct the situation.
I up-voted you because I am a contrarian, but, really, I don't like the 'Bamster, the Bernank nor the QE (which I believe stands for Queer Economics).
The true extent of slowdown in the world economy can be judged by the data points which are not subjected to adjustments by the government. Eg. Change in Electricity and Fuel consumption, Ratio of working population to the total population of a country, Miles driven, Baltic Dry Index, Change in commercial Rental Rates etc.
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article40231.html
I have enjoyed reading your work, and yes the top 1 % have betrayed nations. All the top management at TBTF and the Fed over the last 20+ years need to be put in prison and the institutions broken up. Unfortunately, these same people control governance and the justice departments. History is very clear on how fascism and tyranny are kept in check and that is by force. Nothing else has ever worked, it's that "simple".
Well, if we can get that participation rate down, we will have full employment.
Terrorism against regular people, and death, is bullish for the government.
We had 2 people leave the workforce in Boston alone this month thanks to those two Russian assholes. #bullish for markets.
Can someone explain to me how in the hell 165,000 jobs is good with the debt we have and the participation rate at 63.3% (1979 numbers)? I simply dont get it! One last thing, explein to me what better than expected means when you have a collapsing infastructure and wealth distribution and a stock market in nose bleed territory on printed money?
@MFLTucson,
let me explain to you how 165,00 jobs is good with the debt we have.
its not good at all, it fucking sucks. however, when these clowns put expectations so fucking low and when they put the march number at 88k, anything is going to be considered good.
also consider that there is no pomo today, the only way the market would be green today is with a blowout number, and although this number fucking sucks, compared to 88k its great.
they really got to stop releasing these bs numbers. its such a fucking joke.
they needed to make sure aapl hit 450 today so they needed to gurantee the nasdaq be up another 1 plus percent.
bottom line, this number fucking sucks, and i continue to buy more gold
It's not good, but today is a non-POMO day.
Anything below 500,000 is not enough to get us out of depression or debt.
"Hey baby, I've got a huge 4" long 1" circumference man hammer for you."
Lower expectations and the mawkets go to all time highs.
PONZI!
Thanks because raeding this and apply SOME economic logic, I see a disater and yet the stock marekt is over 1600 on the S&P?
@MFLTucson, this market goes up on anything.
if u recall the march number, 88 k, the markets were fucking flat that day, despite that being as bad of a report as can be.
now any mediocore at best number, markets go up crazy. trust me will have our day when all these thieves suffer.
4 inches.... well... I hope for your sake that it's only 4 inches in sleep modus...
RE
What does this go to show you?
If you didn't submit to debt serfdom - you are nothing to Corporate America.....and to the Corporation that is the American Government.
Jobs growing at 196k monthly in 2013. At that pace, employment will return to pre-recession levels in 7 yrs and 10 months
Of course, the Obama Admin predicted this to happen by the end of summer, 2013 LOLOLOLOLOLOLOL
If net jobs created was 165K and part timers increased by 278K that means a net LOSS of 113K Fulltime Jobs. Thank you Obamacare. We are becoming Part time Obamanation.
THERE'S JUST NO WAY OF PLEASING YOU HE?!
YOU ALWAYS SEE THE NEGATIVE FIRST!! YOU'RE JUST LIKE MY WIFE!!
Maybe I am your wife...no because you just described my wife. OK. Same wife? Akward....
If I make a bumper sticker "Goebbels ain't got nothin on .gov", you think anybody would get it?
Maybe it would be a good way to meet people I'd like to have a beer with.
Dow Jones hit 14990 - that's 14.4% return in 4 months of 2013.
That's about a 40% annualized return.
LMFAO!!!! Everyday this world gets better.
Excuse me while I return to watching the riots in Seattle.
This is your commander Benny, lemmings: CHARGE! Dow 66,000.
Doesn't the reduced participation rate indicate that we are all going back to June Cleever's lifestyle? Except that we now have alternate couples?
Zero manufacturing jobs added. Bullish!
835,000 discouraged workers?
ARM THE DISCOURAGED WORKERS