Full NFP Preview

Tyler Durden's picture

... Or another case of bad news is good news, good news is great news; some (all) BLS report leaks money can buy. For everything else there's BernankeCard.

From RanSquawk

  • US Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (Apr) M/M Exp. 140K, Low 100K, High 238K (Prev. 88K, Feb. 268K)
  • US Unemployment Rate (Apr) M/M Exp. 7.6%, Low 7.5%, High 7.7% (Prev. 7.6%)

NFP forecast breakdown by bank:

  • Bank of America 125K
  • UBS 130K
  • Deutsche Bank 140K
  • Citigroup 140K
  • JP Morgan 145K
  • Goldman Sachs 150K
  • Barclays 150K
  • HSBC 170K

Last month’s Nonfarm Payrolls figure showed the largest miss against expectations since Dec’09, marking the lowest reading since June of last year. The number was predicated by a weaker ADP, as the weather across March (particularly on the east coast) depressed hiring. Nonetheless, the unemployment rate fell to 7.6% due to the declining participation rate as workers left the labour force. Wednesday’s ADP number disappointed, however analysts have warned that the ADP weakness is contradicted by underlying strength in weekly claims data, indicating ADP’s reading was more technical than fundamental. Today’s release will not be able to blame ‘the weather’ as conditions were more favourable across the past thirty days, aiding manufacturing and construction hiring. However, the sequestration furloughs continue to bite, and could lead to another negative government hiring number.

The bulk of estimates lie between 120K and 150K, which (excepting March’s 88K) would be markedly below the six-month average of ~197K. Nonetheless, whisper numbers have circulated ahead of the release to the tune of 110K. This would indicate the labour market in the US is still notably weaker than the FOMC would prefer – and thus their QE program is yet further from its conclusion. For a broader labour market overview, the Fed will be closely inspecting the two-month revisions alongside the release with a view to discerning the deeper trends in the early months of this year.

Market Reaction

As was the case last month, a disappointing number will likely see significant selling pressure in the broader stock indices in the knee-jerk reaction, but this move could be short-lived as participants factor-in easier monetary policy for longer. A sustained move to the upside could bring the S&P 500 into range of 1600 for the first time in history. In core fixed income markets, Treasuries should retain a bid tone should the data miss and could press yields below the 2013 low of 1.63%. The February, March revisions could be critical, as the data set will smooth out the broader market trend and exclude exogenous factors. As such, the extended market reaction could hinge upon these releases should there be significant adjustments. The 2013 recoupling of economic fundamentals and the USD should prove the FX reaction to be relatively simplistic: USD-negative should the data miss, and USD positive should job creation exceed forecast.

In the precious metals space, bearish themes remain – particularly in gold – as ETF holdings continue to plummet to multi-year lows. As such, unless the figure significantly shifts the QE picture, analysts will likely continue to foresee further selling pressure in the medium-term, but the market will likely retain a short-lived knee-jerk risk appetite reaction

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Glitterbug's picture

ETF holdings continue to plummet!! And that's bad news???

People are becoming aware of the scam and getting out.

Physical is the only way until the naked shorting of shares is stopped.

Who knows whe that will be.


MFLTucson's picture

They are not done, they will change the rules so that they can trade on future, future contacts for delivery in 2025

Quinvarius's picture

You can't explain reality to some one trapped in the matrix.  Take their metal from their banks while there is any left.

MFLTucson's picture

Is this for real?  The NFP is a fraud what is the point in trying to chace gangsters making shit up?

Bearwagon's picture

"Baffle 'em with bullshit!" - That's the point.

spankthebernank's picture

Great pic banger....190. 7.4

Who gives a !?:;() anyway

youngman's picture

I would not be hiring until I knew what Obamacare was going to cost me...exactly...

sbenard's picture

You and millions of other business owners! Me included!

JustObserving's picture

NFP is too important a number to be left to reality since reality has a bias towards truth.  NFP must therefore be massaged and manipulated to suit our economic fairy tales.  The Birth/Death model may add 100,000 jobs this month greatly improving the number.

sbenard's picture

Who needs jobs? We have PRINTED prosperity now!

mattdubz86's picture

Looks like the number was leaked to the CME traders.

Racer's picture

Whether it is - 500 million or + 500 million, it matters not, some reason will be made up to justify the ramp higher in the 'markets'

ejmoosa's picture

So the experts believe that hirning in April 2013 was much better than April 2012, which was 112k, even with the sequester which they can now blame?


Nearly 50% better by their estimates?



SheepDog-One's picture

LOL good point! They're reading the tea leaves, problem is the leave are actually from Shit Weeds! It's basic Leahynomics.

Shit Weeds - YouTube

SheepDog-One's picture

These handjob boyz who never had an actual job themselves apparently are really feeling euphoric about other people finding some bullshit min wage gig!

thismarketisrigged's picture

futures are down so much ahead of this report, dow is -1, s&p is -0.50, lol fucking joke


at least their is no pomo today, meaning there can maybe be some red if we get  a bad report.

bnbdnb's picture

With all the state and local governments shrinking, these guys are consistently overestimating. I'm betting 75k.

bnbdnb's picture

And I was very wrong. I forgot each job counted twice.

Edward Fiatski's picture


RIP - EUR, £Pound.

Edward Fiatski's picture

Thank you, Ben.

Even EUR/Yen is ripping; EUR$ is an inverse of that, tho.

Edward Fiatski's picture

A lot more with the short Squeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeze.

thismarketisrigged's picture

lol what a fucking joke this job report is.


if its so good fuckers in the fed and obama, why dont we stop qe, this market can run on fundementals if everything is so good.


176,000 is good number? this sucks, anything compared to 88k last month is amazing ( obviously they revised)  where the fuck is the over 200,000?

ebworthen's picture

HSBC 170K = Funny

With unemployment at even 7.4% we won't see even BSLS print 6.5% unitl 2020.

jjsilver's picture

What a Joke, the banks that feed you the forecast, are the same banks that rig the number to be fed to the sheep/useless eaters


The dirty little secret is that both houses of congress are irrelevant. America's domestic policy is now being run by Alan Greenspan and the Federal Reserve. America's foreign policy is now being run by the International Monetary Fund. When the President decides to go to war, he no longer needs a declaration of war from congress.
-- Robert Reich - Advisor to President Clinton.   USA Today, January 7th, 1999