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Global Slowdown - 70% Of China's Export Partners Saw Orders Plunge

Tyler Durden's picture




 

We discussed previously the slowing of the global economy and the drag on global trade and it appears that despite some hope-ridden headline data from China, things are definitely troubling under the surface. As Bloomberg Brief's Michael McDonough notes, while superficially, export growth was a rare bright spot in the first quarter, it may have been exaggerated by exporters inflating invoices. Excluding exports to Hong Kong, March’s export growth would have fallen 4.8 percent year-on-year compared with the reported 10 percent. China’s exports to 14 of its top 20 trading partners declined in March year-on-year. Tepid global demand may continue to weigh on China’s exports and domestic economy - and in its vicious cycle manner, feed back into global growth (and stain the US 'clean' shirt).

 

Growth in China exports to its Top 20 trading partners...

 

Source: Bloomberg Briefs

 

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Fri, 05/03/2013 - 14:29 | 3527833 max2205
max2205's picture

moar bad news...weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee

Fri, 05/03/2013 - 14:41 | 3527886 schnydz
schnydz's picture

Green shoots! DOW 20K hat primed and ready. 

Fri, 05/03/2013 - 14:58 | 3527928 Cult_of_Reason
Cult_of_Reason's picture

CNBC is lying like there is no tomorrow today.

Negative 6K construction jobs in April is reported by Olick as "construction jobs increased by just over 6,000 in April from the previous month, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics".

Is she simply stupid or just simply lying? (most likely the latter)

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2013/05/April%20Jobs.jpg

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf

Fri, 05/03/2013 - 14:58 | 3527953 astoriajoe
astoriajoe's picture

Well, there is no tomorrow. There is always only today.

Fri, 05/03/2013 - 15:05 | 3527995 ParkAveFlasher
ParkAveFlasher's picture

This graph looks like Mrs. Shrek's tampon.

Fri, 05/03/2013 - 15:10 | 3528009 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Our experience, just an anecdotal data point really, is the opposite.  We are importing more Chinese Hub & Bearing Assemblies into Peru.

Our experience is likely not typical however.  Our supplier makes excellent stuff at a low price.  Many of their pieces are made by very few manufacturers (other than the OEM suppliers).

Little Peru is not particularly like any of the other countries in the above table (Brazil I suppose would be closest).  I have no idea if Peru is importing fewer other Chinese products.  Like I said, just one anecdotal data point...

Fri, 05/03/2013 - 15:16 | 3528015 Cult_of_Reason
Cult_of_Reason's picture

 You are correct. There is no tomorrow for CNBC. Investors are abandoning CNBC in droves.

For too many years, CNBC has provided nothing but a bunch of lies, steady parade of corporate executives touting the stock of their companies, and fund managers who profess to have genius ability to outperform the markets.

The gig is (almost) up. Ratings for CNBC have dropped dramatically. Viewers of its morning business shows are down 10%. Shows like Squawk Box and Closing Bell (Bimbo Bartiromo) have declined for four straight quarters. On April 23, only a pathetic 99,000 viewers watched Squawk Box.

 

 

Fri, 05/03/2013 - 15:33 | 3528129 Schmuck Raker
Schmuck Raker's picture

But...but they have got hockey.

Sat, 05/04/2013 - 01:36 | 3529647 AldousHuxley
AldousHuxley's picture

You don't need cnbc when you've got zerohedge

Fri, 05/03/2013 - 16:21 | 3528360 Panafrican Funk...
Panafrican Funktron Robot's picture

It is pretty funny to watch the hosts debased to basically infomercials.  Watching them have to eat the latest concoctions from McDonald's was truly a joy to behold.  

Fri, 05/03/2013 - 15:18 | 3528051 KRUZER
KRUZER's picture

how true it is.

Fri, 05/03/2013 - 15:42 | 3528181 Cult_of_Reason
Cult_of_Reason's picture

Party like there's no tomorrow, because tomorrow you always regret last night.

http://www.thedawgpound.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/12/girl_vomiting_in_toilet.jpg

Fri, 05/03/2013 - 15:53 | 3528244 Poetic injustice
Poetic injustice's picture

Honest answer would be "In April, more jobs than in May. In May, more jobs than in June. In June..."

Fri, 05/03/2013 - 15:21 | 3528065 Silver Bug
Silver Bug's picture

The Global economy is clearly slowing down. The recover never happened.

 

http://sprottmoneyblog.com/

Fri, 05/03/2013 - 14:29 | 3527835 Iriestx
Iriestx's picture

Transitory.

Fri, 05/03/2013 - 14:33 | 3527842 knukles
knukles's picture

Now that is telling...

Viz the source of the data.
I'm a believer that China can't count beans so to speak what with all the people, infrastructure, underground economy, political spin on what numbers they get....
The official stuff from them is even more suspect than our own Oracles of Truth and Sophistry like the BLS*

right so next you're gonna believe in the tooth fairy

 

* "Hey Rocky, watch me pull a rabbit out of my hat"
                          -  Department of Bullwinke

Fri, 05/03/2013 - 15:12 | 3528023 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

That was one smart flying squirrel.

Fri, 05/03/2013 - 15:17 | 3528047 Bryan
Bryan's picture

Again?

 

Fri, 05/03/2013 - 15:53 | 3528255 Poetic injustice
Poetic injustice's picture

China economic data is as suspicious as virgin in highschool.

Fri, 05/03/2013 - 14:31 | 3527848 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

Blankfein was just on this a.m. telling muppets to buy china. muppets is as muppets does. [/mama sed]

Fri, 05/03/2013 - 14:32 | 3527854 Dumpster Fire
Dumpster Fire's picture

Whole fucking thing is a trap.  Why anyone piles in at 15k is beyond me but they will do it and they will suffer

Fri, 05/03/2013 - 15:15 | 3528034 venturen
venturen's picture

Because they are printing...they can go to 20, 30 50k ...where else you going to go for inflation protection? The banks get the monoploy money and they put it in stocks...nothing you can do but play the game and rush for the exits when the party ends. 

Fri, 05/03/2013 - 15:23 | 3528075 yogibear
yogibear's picture

It doesn't matter if it's the Fed's QE money. Trillions could be lost, they'll just hide it on the Fed's off-banace sheet and then print up some more.

Ah, the art of printing and cooking books.

Fri, 05/03/2013 - 16:23 | 3528370 Panafrican Funk...
Panafrican Funktron Robot's picture

There's about $700 billion in QE to work through before EOY, assuming they don't step up the pace.  You'd be a fucking idiot to short.

Fri, 05/03/2013 - 14:34 | 3527862 venturen
venturen's picture

Nothing more stimilus, printing won't cure! We are all going to be living large in finacial utopia!!!!!!!!!! How Sweet IT IS!

Fri, 05/03/2013 - 14:34 | 3527863 caimen garou
caimen garou's picture

some of that is due to people not being able to afford cheap chinese crap, i'm looking to buy goods that last and are not disposable

Fri, 05/03/2013 - 14:48 | 3527910 pods
pods's picture

A very good thing.  Have been doing that for a while.  Amazon is invaluable for vetting goods.  Especially ones with moving parts.

So much crap, even from the more recognized names is merely rebranded junk.  You really have to DYDD.

You can do it though. I found a nice, built like a truck garbage disposal (even made in the US) for like 60 bucks.  Thing will grind diamonds.

pods

Fri, 05/03/2013 - 15:19 | 3528056 CSI.Economy
CSI.Economy's picture

"Thing will grind diamonds."

Have you tested it?  If not, I would suggest Jamie or Bob.  Either will provide details for an exciting customer review

You could even sell tickets to pay for the cost of the disposal. 

 

 

Fri, 05/03/2013 - 22:49 | 3529413 Lux Fiat
Lux Fiat's picture

An inordinate amount of chopping, cleavering, etc. would be required.  You need something better suited for the size...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Ib7rDds5jk

Fri, 05/03/2013 - 14:36 | 3527871 Edward Fiatski
Edward Fiatski's picture

Italy says "No!" to Chinese stuff. One wonders if they could afford it anyway. :)

Fri, 05/03/2013 - 14:38 | 3527878 Stuck on Zero
Stuck on Zero's picture

China 7% growth = Western world 0% growth.

 

Fri, 05/03/2013 - 14:38 | 3527879 markofsky
markofsky's picture

In six months the Federal Reserve will create enough imaginary money to buy the 20 largest US companies in the stock market. Who owns what?

Fri, 05/03/2013 - 14:50 | 3527916 JustObserving
JustObserving's picture

USA and Japan are printing 10% more than the GDP of India. Free, easy money.  Why not Dow 30,000 and free silver?

Fri, 05/03/2013 - 15:25 | 3528090 yogibear
yogibear's picture

The Fed knows it can buy the who world with printed money as long as it's the reserve currency. Once the Fed looses the Reserve currency status their plan turns to crap.

Fri, 05/03/2013 - 16:26 | 3528382 Panafrican Funk...
Panafrican Funktron Robot's picture

"Once the Fed looses the Reserve currency status their plan turns to crap."

1.  They already are losing that status.  This has accelerated post 08/09 crash.  

2.  This is the reason for QE.  Continuing to further lose this status = more QE.  

Fri, 05/03/2013 - 14:41 | 3527884 new game
new game's picture

crumble she goes. crumbs on the table 15000, but the slices will be pulled along with the loaf...

chase that bitcheeezzz

Fri, 05/03/2013 - 14:42 | 3527894 Jason T
Jason T's picture

exports and imports from China  to US collapsed in March too... holy crap there are recessionary signs everywhere .. I feel like I'm taking crazy pills.

Fri, 05/03/2013 - 15:25 | 3528037 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

When one is bleeding to death, it makes no sense to be measuring the length and depth of each of the thousand cuts.   The world is blinded by all the statistics (most of which are randomly generated, based upon faulty measurements, or just plain lies).  Just get some silver while you still can.

Fri, 05/03/2013 - 14:44 | 3527900 q99x2
q99x2's picture

Japan, Malaysia and Vietnam are still green shoots to China. Why are they buying? I guess Japan is buying with new fake money and Malaysia and Vietnam are still growing or being conned by middle men to buy Chinese junk.

Fri, 05/03/2013 - 14:47 | 3527908 Metalredneck
Metalredneck's picture

Coupled with a beauty of a Baltic Dry Index, we are heading for Dow 17500 by July.

Fri, 05/03/2013 - 15:24 | 3528080 Quinvarius
Fri, 05/03/2013 - 15:34 | 3528138 Cardinal Fang
Cardinal Fang's picture

Adds new meaning to 'bumping along the bottom', eh?

Sat, 05/04/2013 - 09:29 | 3529844 hootowl
hootowl's picture

Did you break your /sarc button?

 

STARVE THE BEAST!!!

Fri, 05/03/2013 - 14:54 | 3527927 earleflorida
earleflorida's picture

the extinction of :

'The Dollar Tree'

'The Dollar General'

'The All for a Dollar'

'The Walmart'

'The Target'  

ie., et.el...

leaves but a outsourced swath [silicon] valley of american consumer's  yearning for the days of a QE [less] yuan... as ben cuts off his hook'd`nose to spite his yiddish face? 

Fri, 05/03/2013 - 15:03 | 3527983 omi
omi's picture

Notice the trend, Asian countries are growing and trading, while western countries are slowing down. There's nothing wrong with China, just western countries' economies are slowing down.

Sat, 05/04/2013 - 09:31 | 3529843 hootowl
hootowl's picture

"Notice the trend, Asian countries are growing and trading, while western countries are slowing down."

Explain please, how Asian countries are growing and trading when their primary exporting targets in the West are slowing down?  Have they now become their own best customers?

Wouldn't such internecine trading lead to Asian economic collapse?  Isn't that like selling food, clothing, and shelter to your own family?......then eventually murdering your neighbor and eating his (and your own) children to survive?

 

STARVE THE BEAST!!!

Fri, 05/03/2013 - 15:16 | 3528044 venturen
venturen's picture

Is that soft patch brown and smelly?

Fri, 05/03/2013 - 15:20 | 3528059 reader2010
reader2010's picture

China's decided to use WARZ to stimulate its dick. Have you noticed? Bullish!

Fri, 05/03/2013 - 15:28 | 3528104 yogibear
yogibear's picture

Once the US dollar looses the reserve currency status it's over for the Fed.

Fri, 05/03/2013 - 15:33 | 3528134 Cardinal Fang
Cardinal Fang's picture

Looks like '50 Shades of Red'

Fri, 05/03/2013 - 15:44 | 3528190 MFLTucson
MFLTucson's picture

The only area of growth in the global economy is the growth of fascism!

Fri, 05/03/2013 - 16:35 | 3528427 kevinearick
kevinearick's picture

Economic Articulation

Central control is capital control, what legacy “thinks” is the means of production, which it enforces socially through population control, Family Law, and many layers of peer pressure misdirection in between. Current misdirection is more complex, but the basic algorithm hasn’t changed in thousands of years.

The status quo is preserved by the overwhelming breeding of small-minded monkeys, to make short-term, expedient decisions, all playing to survive the feast and famine policies that result, to grow their empires of gravity. That is why their laws increasingly normalize arbitrary, capricious and malicious decisions, and identify non-participants as outlaws, the enemy of better being best in a one-world government of best business practice.

But all politics are local. No empire can withstand non-participation in the civil marriage contract, and associated “fountain” pump, for long, which the Eunuch of eunuchs designed, by getting rid of married priests and required marriage licensing by law. Here in Fort Bragg, CA, the multinationals have shut down the forest and ocean to small business enterprise, leaving small token monopolies at the gates, expunging the private sector. What remains is retirees, their services, tourism and government, none of which contribute to productivity.

And the remaining crutch, so isolated, is pot, the means of local monetary expansion, but replication, adoption by other states in their quest for additional tax revenue, is dramatically reducing its yield, and conversion to gold by the proprietors doesn’t help. This town, like the vast majority in America, is already dead, with the dwindling remainder enjoying its prize, a hopelessly dysfunctional economy, the McMansion.

I’m the bad guy, a homeless old white male, who earned six figures for growing organic revenue at many multiples, until the proprietors decided to “go for gold,” to cash out first, before the other herds recognized the significance of one-way global demographic collapse. If I replace the work of another in this contraction, at $10/hr, we both qualify for federal, state, county, and city welfare programs, because the Fed is pumping artificial real estate prices.

And if I choose to be disabled, drunk, or in any other way dysfunctional, there is a plethora of non-profits, all supporting real estate inflation at their core, to help me do that as well, artificially expanded demand at artificially contracted supply. Wage and price controls always end badly.

I have nothing else to do, so I help my wife with a homeless shelter in the back of a church for thirty people, ultimately including nightly accommodation, washing, all meals, and recreation, problem but no problem if you no what I mean, ruffled system feathers. But when we start rolling out an employment program, to build the necessary circuit, suddenly my wife and I are having sex in the church, blah, blah, blah, and, poof, it’s all gone, back to the corporations.

Maintaining the status quo is a local imperative. The “thought leaders” up the chain of command simply run out in front of the parade. All politics is local, aggregated to the least common denominator, in a positive feedback loop.

Bay Area has all the same problems as Fort Bragg, but has only recently experienced similar difficulties because it is a global metropolitan center, getting a leveraged cut of “free” trade accounting profit by implementing both physical automation and the associated banking processes. It enjoys trade among government embezzlers from across the globe accordingly.

Which metropolitan center, with the most foreign investors, do you suppose gets the most free money through the mortgage deduction, currently under review by Congress?

In the final stage of the empire cycle, it’s a closed system, and all the positive feedback eliminates any link with nature, beyond political posturing to lock the gate, and nature applies quantum reversion when the empire reaches the limit of ignoring its own stupidity. BRIC money, which now sees its own writing on the wall, can no longer afford San Francisco, and Fort Bragg is dependent upon dumber and dumber money coming from the Bay Area to keep its ponzi growing. Those beyond the system see the implosion accelerating and move out accordingly, while those participating continue to assume normal operation.

The public corporation prints debt to guarantee revenue demand, leaving the private corporation to focus on cost as the means of maximizing accounting profit, and cost, from this perspective, is labor, as defined by the corporation to its own advantage. The non-profit corporation allows preferred proprietors to avoid taxation all together, while maintaining the appearance of charity. Free trade isolates groups into competition accordingly, to cut their own throats, the end to which fixed-cost automation is being employed.

Small entrepreneurs seek to maximize profit, not revenue, by improving service and releasing the non-performing resources for other uses, by employing flexible, variable cost, intelligent HUMANS. See any around? The Fed continues to print real estate price inflation, and Congress sequesters to simulate labor deflation, netting monetary expansion and fiscal austerity, with the same exemptions for favorites, less a few on the bottom of the priority list, and pension losses, the fuse, which is now readily apparent in local budgets, accelerates into the implosion.

Have fun with that. I’ll be last in the line of lines, watching the sh-show from a calibrated distance.

Fri, 05/03/2013 - 17:05 | 3528529 W74
W74's picture

Why do graphs and charts on ZH almost NEVER have a key attached to them.  Surely Bloomberg had assigned different numbers to all those shades.

 

Maps, graphs, charts, diagrams....please keep the fucking legend/key.

Fri, 05/03/2013 - 20:45 | 3529137 shutdown
shutdown's picture

Dude. We Zerohedge readers don't need no stinkin' keys. We know what green and red signify.

Fri, 05/03/2013 - 22:00 | 3529311 YHC-FTSE
YHC-FTSE's picture

That Bloomberg hack McDonough knows crap about export partnerships in China. If there's been overstating,  it would have been done by government statisticians, NEVER by the exporters or their partners.  

Joint venture exporters exaggerating and inflating invoices is completely crazy when Duty and Taxes on the invoices would be higher for them and their customers. They are much more likely to understate the value of the invoice. 

Other than that, of course exports are down. Retail is stagnant or going bankrupt everywhere. I am surprised its only 70% who are seeing reduced order books and not 100%.

Sat, 05/04/2013 - 12:09 | 3530015 dunce
dunce's picture

Whistling in the dark is a form of false bravado. The reports from most of the worlds governments all seem to be whistling the same tune, but that does not mean that we should not be afraid, be very afraid.

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