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New All-Time Highs In Stocks; Brent Vigilantes Awake

Tyler Durden's picture




 

"Records being smashed left and right on Wall Street today" Better-than-expected 'mediocre' payrolls data was enough to drive pre-open S&P futures well over 1600, provide just the right sprinkling of short-covering scramble...

 

and euphoria to smash the Dow through 15,000 and the S&P through 1,600 and up to its long-term up-trend.

 

 

and that Trannies underperformance? not anymore....!

 

The algos were in charge once we gapped up and guided us gently back to VWAP close...

 

Treasuries snapped higher in yield, catching up to equity exuberance (after disagreeing all week).

 

The Brent Vigilantes are awake and paying attention with their biggest 2-day rise in nine months with WTI back above $96.

 

Copper also surged (+3.9% on the week) and Gold/Silver ended +0.5% on the week.

 

GLD continues to see holdings plunge but gold prices are resurgent

 

FX markets went wild around the NFP print - JPY crumbled (ending the week -1%) but EUR round-tripped from its initial dip; JPY-carry was very supportive of today's excitement (until late on).

 

Risk markets in general stayed highly correlated until some give back into the close that stocks ignored.(Capital Context's CONTEXT model was extremely correlated all the way through the chaos - suggesting the machines were in charge and it seems they were until Europe closed...)

 

Credit markets were not amused and faded the initial equity spike all day.

 

Spot VIX ended back under 13% with a drop of 0.75vols but front-month futures fell only 0.3vols to 14.25%

 

Charts: Bloomberg and Capital Context

Bonus Chart: Strange... What does Lumber know that stocks don't care about either... (h/t @st0cksniper)

 

Bonus Bonus Charts: 2 interesting gold charts... comparing COMEX open interest holdings and the Gold ETFs...

What's next?

 

seems like reversion to normal now


 

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Fri, 05/03/2013 - 16:19 | 3528356 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

How's Bullion doing?

Fri, 05/03/2013 - 16:35 | 3528423 Motorhead
Motorhead's picture

Never mind the bullion, here's the Sex Pistols

P.S. - Charts, bitchez!

 

Fri, 05/03/2013 - 16:50 | 3528476 Charles Nelson ...
Charles Nelson Reilly's picture

it's a website click away, check your fucking self.  While you're at it, grab me a beer shithead.

Fri, 05/03/2013 - 19:08 | 3528893 Lets Buy The Dip
Lets Buy The Dip's picture

bullion will do better later in the year. GOLD is massively oversold, why? elite want it down to get back in hard. And this will happen. 

Right now I am looking at the energy sectors...WOW is all I can say...check it out here. ==> http://bit.ly/18iQAUl

I think crude is about to rally hard, lots of smart money pouring back into crude and energy. 

Fri, 05/03/2013 - 21:30 | 3529249 goldenrod
goldenrod's picture

What is your upper target for this rally?

Fri, 05/03/2013 - 20:04 | 3529048 SeattleBruce
SeattleBruce's picture

"The algos were in charge once we gapped up and guided us gently back to VWAP close..."

Creepy, huh?  Like HAL or perhaps more like Red Dwarf...

Fri, 05/03/2013 - 16:25 | 3528372 WhiteNight123129
WhiteNight123129's picture

Inflate away started today. NIce. Bonds creamed... more to come...

Real rates can not rise agreed, but nominal rates can a lot. As long as real rates are negative, the nasty stuff (debt) in the portofolio of Gundlach is clipped away (inflated away).

The nominal rates do not matter, only the real rates.

And this expansion will not come from credit that is for sure, but there is the other stuff (base money) that can make wonders in pushing the entire price structure when people with a lot of idle cash are tired of stagnant / down return post July 2012 peak in bonds and they buy stuff.

Any stuff as long as it is neither cash or bonds.

 

 

Fri, 05/03/2013 - 16:31 | 3528383 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Peter Schiff just tried to give Maria "G6" Bartiromo and David "A Bridge Too" Farr a lesson.

They were bewildered - they could not process that the FED is inflating markets and misallocating capital and resources while debasing the dollar.

"Does not compute!  Beep-boop-beep!  Buy Stawks!  Beep-click-whir!"

Fucking robots.

Fri, 05/03/2013 - 16:32 | 3528411 akak
akak's picture

I just saw that, too.

(And mea culpa for having had CNBC on!)

That Barfinslowmo bitch trying to tell everyone that they MUST be in stocks, "because this is the market as it is, artificial or not", makes me want to reach out throw the airwaves and throttle her.

Fri, 05/03/2013 - 16:36 | 3528428 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Hey I missed it...What was the jist of Schiff's message this time? Same as usual?

Fri, 05/03/2013 - 16:52 | 3528482 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

Nothng has changed but the money supply and the debt level.  He is looking more right every day, even if the bankers throw an occaisional tantrum at gold.

Fri, 05/03/2013 - 16:58 | 3528502 akak
akak's picture

Pretty much the usual, dollar going to lose value and the only significant real refuge from collapsing bonds, stocks and dollar is gold.  Barfinslomo brought up the old canard "But gold doesn't earn any interest or dividend", and I was glad that Peter made the quick response "And neither does the dollar.  You don't expect money to earn interest or dividends".  It seemed to leave the two shills scratching their heads --- "Norman, Norman, please coordinate".

Fri, 05/03/2013 - 17:07 | 3528534 flacon
flacon's picture

Is this clip on YOUTUBE yet - I don't see any new videos on SchiffReport channel today. 

Fri, 05/03/2013 - 17:08 | 3528536 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Thanks for the updates

Fri, 05/03/2013 - 17:41 | 3528594 thelibcentury
thelibcentury's picture

yo: i believe these are the clips youse looking for?

http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?play=1&video=3000166102

edit: this made me 95% laugh, 5% cringe in awkward empathetic embarassment for Maria and the other dumbass. But its pretty indicative of how fully CNBC has embraced its role as a propagandist to the inattentive and ignorant; it is hard to believe that anyone with a double digit IQ could watch this (and pay attention while they are doing so) and not sense the enormous discrepancy between the sensibility of the two positions presented. in other words, they aren't even trying to hide their unabashed, blind obedience to the status quo! not that this is anything new, but this video especially seems to bring it into focus

Fri, 05/03/2013 - 17:41 | 3528630 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Thanks for the link.

It amazes me that they can't see the abject similarity to the 2008 bubble.

Schiff tried to point it out, but their belief in the FED and the never ending U.S. rah-rah it's 1983 again while ignoring the fundamental changes for the worse to the society.

Fri, 05/03/2013 - 18:41 | 3528798 Pareto
Pareto's picture

+1 for providing the links and prelim.  I like how Schiff completely ignored the stock market and went straight for the dollar in terms of valuations.  Maria stuck on the nominal price of gold makes her unable to connect the dollar devaluation dots.  As long as I am earning yield, she says.  She can't get past nominal returns.  And Farr is even less informed w.r.t stacking the data points of employment and declining market data against forward earnings.  He actually believes the FED can exit the market with little or no impact.  Using that logic then, if the FED makes no impact on exit, what constitutes the impact that it has had on entering the market?  Can't have ot both ways fuckers.  Either the FED is relevant, or, it is not.  And if it is relevant upon entering the market, then it must also have an impact on the market when it exits.  Inflation doesn't generate growth - ideas generate growth.

Fri, 05/03/2013 - 16:27 | 3528387 HaroldWang
HaroldWang's picture

Been saying this for a long, long time here - while I don't agree with it at all, stocks will continue higher until there is no Fed involvement. The Street has made it very clear to Bernanke, you take away the free money, we'll tank this market and your economy. Hence, Fed will continue - they have no choice.

Fri, 05/03/2013 - 16:49 | 3528469 1100-TACTICAL-12
1100-TACTICAL-12's picture

I've had a 6 pack and Maria is now doable, funny how that shit works..

Fri, 05/03/2013 - 17:17 | 3528568 1100-TACTICAL-12
1100-TACTICAL-12's picture

Talk about ruining the night. ugggh

Fri, 05/03/2013 - 17:00 | 3528510 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

I was on board with that before Cyprus and the Obama tax hike on the middle class.  The economy is clearly going into the shitter globally now.  Now I don't know.  I feel better grabbing gold. 

Fri, 05/03/2013 - 16:27 | 3528390 Being Free
Being Free's picture

Of the last eleven S&P runs between >=5% corrections, six (55%) of the peaks occurred on a Friday, the other 5 peaked on the first trading day of the week.

Just saying.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-02-13/60-days-without-5-correction-and-counting

Fri, 05/03/2013 - 16:30 | 3528407 Manthong
Manthong's picture

peak... farce

Fri, 05/03/2013 - 19:30 | 3528954 Awakened Sheeple
Awakened Sheeple's picture

Thanks for that. I was going to research that very thing over the weekend.

Fri, 05/03/2013 - 16:30 | 3528401 Edward Fiatski
Edward Fiatski's picture

I'm looking forward to seeing Retail positioning updates by the end of next week.

On a side note, no POMO today is a calculated move in order to lure the herd above 1600 and slaughter them later on, perhaps a month or two down the line. ;-)

Fri, 05/03/2013 - 16:45 | 3528459 PontifexMaximus
PontifexMaximus's picture

....having moved to 1670 before?

Fri, 05/03/2013 - 18:39 | 3528787 Edward Fiatski
Edward Fiatski's picture

Yess... or kissing 1700 at least. :-)

But for retail to jump in, the levitation needs to be relentless throughout the timeperiod, as not to spook them off.

Fri, 05/03/2013 - 16:50 | 3528468 negative rates
negative rates's picture

Can't wait till we can get on the hwy and really open this puppy up.

Fri, 05/03/2013 - 16:53 | 3528488 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

With Gold, the best comparison chart to the gold plunge of the last few weeks is the Nikkei plunge in 1992.    Dig it up to know what lies ahead.

Had fun trading silver today, intuitively got all of the crazy moves correct.  But with Lew and the banksters together for the last 2 days, I went flat into the close.  

Fri, 05/03/2013 - 17:10 | 3528544 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

Do yourself a favor.  Buy gold or don't look at it.  It is going straight back up and over 1900.

Fri, 05/03/2013 - 16:55 | 3528493 fuu
fuu's picture

The US mint has sold no silver since 4/30. No gold since 5/1.

Fri, 05/03/2013 - 17:15 | 3528557 bnbdnb
bnbdnb's picture

What days do the fed buy MBS?

Fri, 05/03/2013 - 17:15 | 3528561 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Gold is going to 1530 then 1200.

Fri, 05/03/2013 - 17:20 | 3528574 ParkAveFlasher
ParkAveFlasher's picture

That's awesome. +1

Fri, 05/03/2013 - 17:22 | 3528585 akak
akak's picture

Whlie you're polishing your crystal ball, can you tell me the winning Superball Lottery numbers for next week?

Fri, 05/03/2013 - 17:38 | 3528621 DosZap
DosZap's picture

Gold is going to 1530 then 1200.

ONE can only hope.

Fri, 05/03/2013 - 18:27 | 3528749 orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

$1526 shows resistance - $1530 sounds about right.

 

http://bullandbearmash.com/chart/spot-gold-daily-falls-hard-early-recove...

 

Agreed - more downside ahead.  US Dollar is ready to pop as Euro, Pound and Yen are ready for another big drop.

Fri, 05/03/2013 - 17:20 | 3528576 W T F II
W T F II's picture

Just spray the Lumber chart for termites and all will be well....

Fri, 05/03/2013 - 18:19 | 3528726 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

Next week will be the roll over. Wall St sold their equity to retail.

Fri, 05/03/2013 - 19:40 | 3528982 LooseLee
LooseLee's picture

Real savings generate growth....

Fri, 05/03/2013 - 19:53 | 3529019 Youri Carma
Youri Carma's picture

"Brent Vigilantes Awake"
Brent crude $100.00 and U.S. crude $90.88 – 01 May 2013
Brent crude $102.60 and U.S. crude $93.66 – 02 May 2013
Brent crude $104.17 and U.S. crude $95.61 a barrel now

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